Co-Captain asked me to post this for everyone here, since he is still banned and cant post it himself.
Aloha Gang...First off, I hope you all are good health and spirits on another College Football weekend....Yesterday I enjoyed back to back days Sweeping my plays and now enter into the weekend with a solid 8W-2L record......Today I am looking for another Big Day, as I am releasing my rare BIG GAME PLAY--GAME OF THE YEAR selection with a very indepth Write-Up and Game Analysis, as always, for everyone.....Now, I know most of you may be thinking that this is another Homer call...well, your partly right..and partly wrong...I call and place my biggest wagers on the year on the Hawaii Warriors because I know this team better than any other team in the nation,..as far as situations, personal, matchups, etc...Doesnt always turn out to be profitable in smaller plays, but to me I have a lot of experience and confidence in what I know regarding the Warriors which most dont...What I do is watch and wait for the moment that Vegas dictates to me that a Big Opportunity to Hit the Warriors is existing...and when this happens, I hit it and I hit it hard and as you can see below...when it comes to my BIG GAME PLAYS, which btw have a YTD RECORD of 27W-9L-1P= 75% in All Major Sports Combined, Hawaii has been a play in 7 BIG GAME PLAYS and I have produced an outstanding record of 5W-2L=71% this years as a BIG GAME PLAY selection for me.(all plays documented at Covers and/or RX).
-Last seasons BIG GAME PLAY--GAME OF THE YEAR selection in FB....Hawaii vs Alabama (EZ 37-29 Winner!).
-Last seasons BIG GAME PLAY--GAME OF THE MONTH selection in FB....Hawaii vs Fresno St (EZ 55-28 Winner!).
-Last seasons BIG GAME PLAY--GAME OF THE YEAR selection in CBB....Hawaii vs Utep (EZ Blowout Winner!).
-Last seasons BIG GAME PLAY--GAME OF THE MONTH selection in CBB....Hawaii vs Rice (EZ Blowout Winner!)
-Last seasons BIG GAME PLAY--BLOWOUT GAME selection in CBB....Hawaii vs New Orleans (EZ Blowout Winner!).
-Last seasons BIG GAME PLAY--NIT GAME OF THE MONTH selection in CBB....Hawaii vs Nebraska (Heartbreaking Loser by 1/2 pt on a meaningless half-court shot at the buzzer...OUCH!).
-This seasons BIG GAME PLAY--WAC UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH selection in FB....Hawaii vs Utep (Loser!).
Now, I dont expect anyone here to agree or to even follow my reasoning or selection on the Warriors in this game....All I am doing is sharing what and why I feel it is a good money making opportunity and why I am playing it so BIG....The rest of it is left up to each and everyone one of you to decided whether or not to follow, fade, or ignore my selection completely...Again, I am NOT here to sell, persuade, or guarantee anyone on my selection....just sharing it like everyone else does...And please dont get me wrong...I dont think Hawaii is World beaters at all...I just think in certain situations and against certain teams, they have an excellent chance to come out on top...Plus, if you didnt know by now, I also make a lot of money on the Warriors playing them not only on sides( in BGP selections), but also on plays in the 2nd HF(where it is very profitable if you know what signs to look for), Teasers (often good to tease Hawaii's over exaggerated lines down or up), and also on the Over/Unders (both for the game and the 2nd HFs) which have been EZ money for awhile now...
So please dont get stupid like some do, thinking that the Co-Captain only plays the Warriors on the game...No, No, No..never had and never will...To win in Hawaii games, spreading out your plays most times is always a better money making proposition if you know how and when to do it....Still, there are games like this one where I simply like the side action the most and that is why I am pounding it Big....Anyway, whatever you decide to do, I wish you ALL the Best of Luck and Aloha as always, Co-Captain....Now Lets ROCK-N-ROLL HAWAIIAN STYLE BABY!....AWWRIIGHT!
**BIG GAME PLAY--GAME OF THE YEAR selection on:
HAWAII -2.5 (buy .5pt)
-Ok, below are some Key Factors and Situational Edges that I feel will favor the Warriors Big in this game between the two...I also have listed some Stats and Trends for you that support my play on the Warriors, so without further adew lets get to them.
*KEY FACTOR #1: The Warriors Potent Air Attack led by QB Timmy Chang VS La Tech's poor Pass Defense.
Now, I am not going into all the National or WAC Conf stats that show this Warrior Passing attack and Offense, lead by QB Timmy Chang, as one of the nations leaders, and which have been on the top in these categories year in and year out since June Jones brought his wide open, highly sophisticated, and high scoring Offensive schemes here from the ranks of the NFL....What I will talk about more...which seemingly no one is willing to do, is on the Weakness of the Bulldogs on Defense, which is in their swiss cheese Defense against the pass...
This year, the Bulldogs are ranked in the lower 1/4 in the nation in Total Pass Defense....The Bulldogs also rank 9th (2nd to last) in the WAC Conf in Pass Defense, allowing 238.9 ypg...Last in the WAC in pass completion allowed per game at 19....9th (2nd to last) in pass completion % allowed in WAC....Last in the WAC in most Pass TDs given up with 19 on the year....and 3rd fewest in Interceptions in the year with 9.
Now lets look a little closer at this Bulldog Pass Defense vs WAC opponents and one Sun Belt opponent (omitting games vs Miami, Auburn, and Tenn)....Vs Nevada (ranked 3rd in WAC in passing offense, with 5th ranked passing QB) the Bulldogs allowed 244 yards passing, 23 of 38, and 61% completions.....Vs UL Laf (Sun Belts 2nd ranked passing QB and passing offense) the Bulldogs allowed 327 yards passing, 32 of 55, and 58% completions.....Vs Fresno St (ranked 9th in passing offense, with 7th ranked passing QB) the Bulldogs allowed 104 yards passing, 13 of 28, and 46.4% completions.....Vs SMU (ranked 5th in passing offense, with 8th ranked passing QB) the Bulldogs allowed 288 yards passing, 26 of 53, and 50% completions.....Vs Utep (ranked 4th in passing offense, with 3rd ranked passing QB) the Bulldogs allowed 259 yards passing, 17 of 30, and 57% completions......Today, they will face the #1 passing offense averaging 330.1 yards passing per game...and the #1 ranked passing QB in Timmy Chang.
Ok, I lied...I will need to talk about QB Timmy Chang and this Warrior Offensive pass attack...Right now they are the #1 Pass Attack in the WAC Conf, averaging 330.1 ypg...This Warrior Offense is also ranked 30th in the nation in scoring with 31.1 ppg...at home they are averaging 42 ppg...The Warriors are ranked 10th in the nation in passing offense.....They are tied for 8th in the nation in passing TDs with 15, and in fewest INTS on the year....They are also ranked 2nd in the nation in completions per game with 28.6....and 2nd in the nation in yards passing per game with 330.1.
Now lets look at what this Warrior pass attack did at home vs WAC opponents.....Vs Tulsa (ranked 5th in pass defense, allowing 188.5 ypg) Chang went 23-45 for 397 yards......Vs Nevada (ranked 3rd in pass defense, allowing just 167.4 ypg) Chang went 21-35-1 for 322 yards.....and Vs SJST (ranked #1 in pass defense, allowing 178.3 ypg) Chang went 26-40-2 for 341 yards.....At HOME this year vs WAC opponents, the Warriors pass attack led by Timmy Chang averaged 353.3 ypg and 42 ppg....and today they will be facing one of the worst pass defenses not only in the nation, but in the WAC as well....WOW!
Side Note: This years success through the air can also be attributed to the solid Offensive Line play from the veteran Big Uglies Unit that the Warriors got upfront....So far this year, they rank as the 6th Best in least sacks allowed with 9...This also ranks them 2nd in the WAC in least sacks allowed only behind the run all the time, Rice team who allowed 8 sacks on the year so far....OUTSTANDING!...Plus, La Tech's other weakness on Defense was in establishing a pass rush...and vs their last 3 WAC opponents, the Bulldogs were only able to record 4 sacks (2 vs Fresno, 1 vs SMU, and 1 vs Utep)...Not good to give Timmy Chang all day to pass as he can rip secondaries apart when he has all day to pass.
*KEY FACTOR #2: Look out for the Warriors ground attack at Home.
Yes, I said it again....Hawaii's ground attack!....What also makes Boise St solid is their coaches who were just one of the few to recognize that if Hawaii gets their running game going, then trying to stop their passing game will become that much more impossible....Boise St's coaches knew this and that became their first priority of stopping, whereas, most teams will simply only concentrate on stopping Chang and the passing game....This is wrong, because Chang will get his yards, but you dont want the Warriors to put up yards both through the Air and on the Ground...When Hawaii is able to do this, their Offense can be unstoppable...especially at home.
Speaking of the ground attack....Hawaii, though ranking as one of the worst in the nation and last in the WAC on the ground, you have to still look at the fact that when they do decide to run it, they have been very efficient and effective....Currently, Hawaii is averaging 5.0 yards per carry...which ranks as 14th Best in the nation in this category...Hawaii's SR tandem RB duo of "Big Boy" (280 Keliikipi) and "Little Man" (5'6" Brewster) have been very effective running the ball at home.
This year at home vs WAC opponents, the Warriors have rushed for over 100 yards in all 3 games....In fact, Vs Tulsa, Hawaii gained 128 yards on 23 carries (5.6 ypc)..Brewster went 8-81 yards (10.1 ypc) and Keliikipi went 10-64 yards (6.4 ypc)......Vs Nevada, Hawaii rushed for 251 yards on 24 carries (10.5 ypc)...Brewster went 9-150 (16.7 ypc) and Keliikipi went 3-31 yards (10.3 ypc).....Vs SJST, Hawaii rushed for 108 yards on 30 carries (3.6 ypc)...Brewster went 15-49 (3.3 ypc) and Keliikipi went 6-21 (3.5 ypc).......The Bulldog Defense vs the Run is ranked 5th in the WAC, giving up an average of 4.2 ypc and 162.5 ypg on the ground so far this year.
Side Note: Remember and lets not forget, La Tech's Defense last year was the worst Defense in the nation giving up an average of 510.5 ypg and allowed 32.8 ppg...and even though they hired a new DC, Tim Rose, who installed a new 3-4 defensive scheme, dont forget also that he came from Eastern Michigan where defense is also not an issue....Hawaii's Defense is poor, but dont forget, this one is being played in their House and La Tech's somewhat better defensive stats, where also masked by Moats eating up a lot of clock, keeping them off the field...but this may not work against Hawaii's quick strike offense.
*KEY FACTOR #3: RB Moats good...but he is their lone star and I dont think he will be enough vs Hawaii's bend but dont break Defense at Home?
Ok, I am a big fan of RB Moats who reminds me so much of my favorite NFL running back Barry Sanders....And I am not going to kid myself by saying that Hawaii will shut him down or even hold him to under 200 yards rushing...No, I believe that he will get his yards, just like he did last year vs the Warriors where he gained 264 yards and scored 4 TDs, in their 44-41 loss...Hawaii, this year, got shredded for over 400 yards by both Rice and Boise St....but remember, those games were on the ROAD and I dont see Hawaii, even with all their defensive injuries, allowing any WAC opponent to gain that much on the ground, on their Home Turf....Plus, the difference in those games besides being on the road....is that, for one, Rice has multiple running threats that can kill you, and they also simply only run the ball...and second, Boise St has a very potent balanced offensive attack...La Tech doesnt have any of these two things, they are now on the Road, and really they only have RB Moats to carry the load.
La Tech is basically a one dimensional team relying almost entirely on him...This is more so the issue this year, especially with the loss of their star QB and the nations 5th most prolific passer in NCAA history,in McCown, loss to graduation...This year, the Bulldogs are relying on players who are playing for the first time ever, and also who will be playing for their first time ever in Hawaii...Making matters a little harder on the passing game is that their chosen starter QB Allen is sidelined with an injury, leaving struggling backup Kubik to lead the offense....This kid Kubik sucks **** big time...and his current stats this year has proven this...He is currently hitting ONLY 52% of his passes, and has just 4 passing TDs to his 8 interceptions...In their last game vs Utep, when Moats went down and later returned but was slowed with the injury...La Tech's offense behind the arm of Kubik simply could not get anything done when they had to play catch up at home against the Miners...In that game, he only completed 9 of 28 passes for ONLY 151 yards and had 3 interceptions.....How effective do you think this youngster will be in his first game in Hawaii, and trying to play catch up or score matching with Chang and Co....If the Warriors jump out Big early...I say it will be a long night for this QB, as the Warriors may be poor against the run, but vs the pass...they still have been solid at home where they have at least 1 interception in each of their last 3 home games vs WAC opponents, and also got recorded 9 sacks in these 3 home games as well.
Other poor passing stats on the year for La Tech....they are currently ranked in the bottom 1/3 in the nation in passing offense and 7th in the WAC in this category averaging just 191.8 ypg....Bulldogs also has the 2nd least passes for TDs with ONLY 5...They also only have two receivers with catches in the DD's with 16 and 15...compared to Hawaii having 5 WRs in with DD catches and all of them with 20 + on the year...WOW!...This lack of WR production is due mostly to their young inexperienced QB's, but it is also due to the Bulldogs losing 3 of their Top WRs from last years team to graduation as well.
Why is the struggling passing game of La Tech important in this game? ...Because, what has happened in their previous games, and more so in their last game vs Utep, is exposed to the Warriors and everyone else, not only that their offense is completely and utterly reliant on Moats to carry the entire load...But, Utep also exposed that their weak passing offense is not able to put a comeback via the pass together should they fall behind in points, or if Moats gets injured, or is made ineffective by the opponents defenses stacking the line to stop him....This weakness of La Tech on passing offense, has given their opponents a perfect game plan to beating them, which btw, was perfectly played out by Utep in their 44-27 victory over La Tech in Ruston...The plan, stack the line and try to contain not stop Moats...If La Tech wants to pass, let them go for it...like I mentioned earlier, they only have two WRs who have DD receptions in the year, and both of them total under 18 catches...Plus, add in to this the fact that their young, inexperienced QB is only hitting 52% of his passes this year, have only thrown 4 TDs, and have 8 ints on the year so far..it shows completely that Moats is the immediate threat....Without a threat in a passing game to make use of what he has produced on the ground...makes it that much easier and predictable to defend against should La Tech's offense be put in 2nd and 3rd down and long situations.
Still, Moats is where the Bulldogs will live and die by, and he wont be going down to any defense easy by any means...and especially not to this poorous and banged up defense of the Warriors......But, the weak pass attack of the Bulldogs and the potent offensive attack that the Warriors possess..is where another key to containing Moats will lie....Utep's offense did this, and I feel the Warriors offense, especially at home is capable of doing this as well....maybe even better....What this is put up points on La Tech and keep the pressure on its offense to keep up....Utep was able to do this once they got the lead, and kept the pressure on the Bulldogs by not playing conservation at all, and it paid off with points being constantly put on the board....When this happened, La Tech's offense who uses a lot of clock, simply had no choice but to use Moats less in the offensive schemes and depend more on their struggling QB....Utep kept the pressure on the Bulldogs by taking advantage of their poorous defense, which forced them to use the passing game more, something they definitely dont want to do....and I can certainly see the Warriors and Chang putting up just as much pressure with their passing attack and quick scoring offense....If Hawaii gets up early, Moats will be made less effective, especially late in the game...and this is where La Tech's Star and offense will not be able to survive....Everyone is concerned about how Hawaii will contain Moats...well, I dont think they need to stop him, just contain him....and then let their offense put up points on this weak Bulldog defense, then letting La Tech try to beat the Warriors using their weakness..its QB to come back.
Side Note: This La Tech Offensive Line with all 5 starters back and all of which are in the 300 lb + range is what makes Moats that much more of a dangerous runner...This is a solid run blocking Big Uglies Unit....but, it is NOT a good pass blocking Big Uglies Unit....Last year's weakness on Offense for the Bulldogs was in its pass protection, as they were loaded with Stars besides Moats in the skilled positions especially at QB....But what cause them to falter many times on drives was their poor pass protection....Last year this O-Line unit gave up a whooping 36 sacks on the year....So, you would assume that having another year under their belts that they would be a lot better this year...Well, this is not the case as this O-Line Unit is the worst in the league in pass protection and has already given up 28 sacks on the year so far....they are currently also tied for 4th in the nation in most Sacks allowed...
Last week vs Utep's smallish D-Line unit, they gave up Sacks...yet another problem for this Bulldogs passing offense...Hawaii at Home has been able to record 9 sacks vs their last 3 Conf opponents, as they used blitzing packages to try and create TOs and take away one of the aspects of their opponents offenses....as stopping the run they simply struggle to stop even at home....Today, I see them being able to pressure La Tech's less mobile QB Kubik and that should be easier to game plan against should those things mentioned above fall into place...
*KEY FACTOR #4: Special Special Teams play at Home for the Warriors w/ duo threat WR/PR Chad Owens.
As I mentioned above...La Techs only real Star is RB Moats, who must carry his team on his shoulders to victory....For Hawaii though, it is not exactly the same, even though many think that QB Timmy Chang is the only Star for the Warriors...Not so....this Warrior team also has Stars in their Special teams, and this year they have come up with record tying and game changing plays...
One of them is Star WR/PR Chad Owens (Bilitnikoff nominee)(sp)....This year, Owen's has been given the green light to field punt returns whenever he feels like it, a difference from previous years when he became a starting WR on offense....But this his Sr year, Jones promised him that he could return punts whenever he feels up to it...and Owens has simply responded by returning 3 punts, in Hawaii's last 3 home games for TDs...Owens is also currently ranked 2nd in the WAC in both total punt return yards and average yards per punt return.....Owens also is on the verge of breaking career records as well, as he only needs 116 yards to become Hawaii's career All-Purpose Yardage leader..
In games played at home this year...Hawaii's Special teams play, especially in returns(KO and PR) have been outstanding and have given Hawaii's offense many good field positions to work with...ie, vs Tulsa Hawaii had a return yardage edge of 72 to 12.....Vs Nevada, Hawaii had a return yardage edge of 85 to 53......and Vs SJST, Hawaii had a return yardage edge of 110 to 4.
This year, La Tech leads the Conf with the most punts with 51 so far this year...20 more than the Warriors....Also, this year they are very green in the Punting and Kicking departments..as they have to replace two of last years solid special teams performers in All WAC PK Josh Scobee (NFL) and Punter Upton's consistant 40+ yard average...Hawaii should have the edge here at home with their experienced All Conf Punter in Milne and PK Ayat, over the Bulldogs two Freshman's who will need to deal with this important task, while also playing on the Road today..
Side Note: Other Special Team players who are contributing well for Hawaii are KR Jason Ferguson who is currently ranked 4th in the league averaging 25.2 yards per a KO return, with a long of 66 yards...Compared to La Tech's return man Franklin who ranks 8th in the Conf in KO returns, with a long of only 34 yards....Hawaii's Senior PK Ayat, has also kicked a 56 yard FG at home this year, tying Denver Broncos Jason Elams career longest FG record at Hawaii...Lastly, La Tech lost last years game at home to Hawaii when their All Star PK Scobee missed a 53 yard FG late in the game....
*SOME SITUATIONAL EDGES: Working for in the Warriors Favor...
-QB Timmy Chang's quest to be the Best of All Time....Timmy Chang has another opportunity to set the record in this game and also make up for last weeks disaster on Nationally Televised game at Boise where he set the All Time Int Record, instead of the All Time Passing Yardage Record...Hawaii fans happy and motivated that they get to see this happen at Home and will come out to support their local boy with a lot of energy tonight...Last weeks lost seems to be almost forgotten already.
-Do or Die game for the Warriors Bowl Hopes....This is a must win game for the Warriors here as they will need to win 4 of their last 5 games in order to go to their Bowl game....Bowl games are important for Jones plans on building a consistant Top 25 caliber Football program...and exposure on National TV in the Bowls is one way to do this, not to mention, bringing in money to the program and helping with recruiting...Hawaii's SRs are positive on turning things around starting with the Bulldogs....No time to look ahead to Fresno St, or even worry that its another game on the road, at Fresno who will be playing with triple revenge...Hawaii knows they suck on the road and that Fresno is one of the toughest places to play...But, they also know that a loss here will almost certainly spell no Bowl Game this year for them.
-Longest Road Trip ever for the Bulldogs...plus, the change in weather does have an affect on traveling opponents....La Tech had to travel 4,000 miles and across 5 times zones just to get here for the game....Currently right now, the weather in Hawaii is humid which is at 93% and a High temp of 87 degrees, which they will also have to adjust to in a short time....Many teams who come here at this time of year become sluggish and simply drained of energy by the 2nd half of the game as the travel woes start creeping up on them...RB Moats and his Big Uglies Unit may be all worn out after all the running that they will be doing....I still remember when Alabama potent rush attack came to town two years ago...and their All Time leading RB and QB was completely gasping for oxygen by the end of the 3rd Q...
-Home Sweet Home for the Warriors, but paradise and all its distractions can work against the visitors focus on the game...Too many distractions for this Bulldog squad to stay completely focused on this game. This trip, will represent for most of them their only chance to ever visit these islands and its treasures, "if you know what I mean". You know they have been fully complimented and accommodated with an overwhelming abundance of distrations since they stepped off the plane. And it will only continue until the game is over. How does one keep their young, horny ass, minds on a stupid game, which they must feel they should win EZ.
-Hawaii off an embarrassing loss to Boise St...Hawaiian Pride and playing at home again will reenergize this Warrior team to overcome that embarassing loss with a solid win over the Bulldogs....Jones even stated that he still feels the pain and embarassment of last weeks loss...but stated that you get over it by simply playing the next game and winning it.
*SOME STATS, TRENDS, and INFO: which work in favor of the Warriors.
-La Tech is 1-7-1 ATS away off SU loss vs < .500 opponent.
-La Tech is 2-10 ATS off a bye week.
-La Tech is 1-3 the last 3 years when playing w/ 2 weeks or more rest.
-La Tech is 3-11 ATS vs teams with a losing record.
-La Tech is 1-11 ATS vs teams allowing 5.9 or more yards per play.
-La Tech is 2-4 ATS as a Road Dog of 3.5 to 7 pts since 1992.
-La Tech is 7-13 ATS in games played on Turf since 1992...Last 3 seasons, La Tech is 3-3 ATS in games played on Turf....This will be their first game on Turf this year.
-La Tech is 5-13 ATS the last 3 years in Road Games....La Tech is 1-3 ATS in Road Games this year.
-La Tech is 2-8 SU and ATS in last 10 road games in November
-Hawaii is 11-5 ATS in last 16 Home games in November
-Hawaii is 4-2 last 3 years off a loss vs a Conf rival.
-Hawaii is 2-0 SU and ATS vs La Tech....Covered last year at La Tech as a Road Dog winning outright...and then in 2000 at home winning 27-10.
-Hawaii is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS this year at Home.
Hawaii Off/Def Home Games Stats...and La Techs Off/Def Road Games Stats...
-Hawaii's Offense at Home this year averaging 469.0 ypg, 42 ppg, 24 FDs, 6.9 ypp, 5.9 ypr, 1.0 TOs, and TOP 27:01..
-Hawaii's Defense at Home this year allowing opponents to average 395.2 ypg, 26.2 ppg, 22.7 FDs, 4.8 ypp, 4.3 ypr, 2.2 TOs, and Opps TOP 32:59..
-La Tech's Offense on the Road this year averaging 331.2 ypg, 16.2 ppg, 14.2 FDs, 5.3 ypp, 3 ypr, 2.2 TOs., and TOP 32:19.
-La Tech's Defense on the Road this year allowing Home teams to average 442.0 ypg, 38 ppg, 20.5 FDs, 6.4 ypp, 5.0 ypr, 1.5 TOs., and Opps TOP 27:40.
*Lastly, I want to mention that no matter how anyone feels about QB Timmy Chang, good or bad, is their own business....but keep in mind that what he is achieving is something that will never ever be achieved again..and this achievement is simply an amazing and impressive accomplishment by any standards, no matter what way you try to spin it....Like Trev Alberts said, someone still had to take the snap, someone still had to pass the ball, and someone still had to catch the ball...so no matter how you try to discredit this accomplishment or water down this milestone...it is still going to be a very impressive achievement...Also, for those who are making an issue of Timmy breaking the All Time Interception Record, which probably wont be broken as well...just remember one of the best ever HR hitter, Babe Ruth, who holds several batting records...also holds the record for the most strike outs, as well....When this day is done, Timmy Chang will have his record and his name will be forever locked in NCAA College Football history..and that no one will be able to take away from him, no matter what.
GL Gang...and LET GO GET EM!....ALOHA CC.
Aloha Gang...First off, I hope you all are good health and spirits on another College Football weekend....Yesterday I enjoyed back to back days Sweeping my plays and now enter into the weekend with a solid 8W-2L record......Today I am looking for another Big Day, as I am releasing my rare BIG GAME PLAY--GAME OF THE YEAR selection with a very indepth Write-Up and Game Analysis, as always, for everyone.....Now, I know most of you may be thinking that this is another Homer call...well, your partly right..and partly wrong...I call and place my biggest wagers on the year on the Hawaii Warriors because I know this team better than any other team in the nation,..as far as situations, personal, matchups, etc...Doesnt always turn out to be profitable in smaller plays, but to me I have a lot of experience and confidence in what I know regarding the Warriors which most dont...What I do is watch and wait for the moment that Vegas dictates to me that a Big Opportunity to Hit the Warriors is existing...and when this happens, I hit it and I hit it hard and as you can see below...when it comes to my BIG GAME PLAYS, which btw have a YTD RECORD of 27W-9L-1P= 75% in All Major Sports Combined, Hawaii has been a play in 7 BIG GAME PLAYS and I have produced an outstanding record of 5W-2L=71% this years as a BIG GAME PLAY selection for me.(all plays documented at Covers and/or RX).
-Last seasons BIG GAME PLAY--GAME OF THE YEAR selection in FB....Hawaii vs Alabama (EZ 37-29 Winner!).
-Last seasons BIG GAME PLAY--GAME OF THE MONTH selection in FB....Hawaii vs Fresno St (EZ 55-28 Winner!).
-Last seasons BIG GAME PLAY--GAME OF THE YEAR selection in CBB....Hawaii vs Utep (EZ Blowout Winner!).
-Last seasons BIG GAME PLAY--GAME OF THE MONTH selection in CBB....Hawaii vs Rice (EZ Blowout Winner!)
-Last seasons BIG GAME PLAY--BLOWOUT GAME selection in CBB....Hawaii vs New Orleans (EZ Blowout Winner!).
-Last seasons BIG GAME PLAY--NIT GAME OF THE MONTH selection in CBB....Hawaii vs Nebraska (Heartbreaking Loser by 1/2 pt on a meaningless half-court shot at the buzzer...OUCH!).
-This seasons BIG GAME PLAY--WAC UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH selection in FB....Hawaii vs Utep (Loser!).
Now, I dont expect anyone here to agree or to even follow my reasoning or selection on the Warriors in this game....All I am doing is sharing what and why I feel it is a good money making opportunity and why I am playing it so BIG....The rest of it is left up to each and everyone one of you to decided whether or not to follow, fade, or ignore my selection completely...Again, I am NOT here to sell, persuade, or guarantee anyone on my selection....just sharing it like everyone else does...And please dont get me wrong...I dont think Hawaii is World beaters at all...I just think in certain situations and against certain teams, they have an excellent chance to come out on top...Plus, if you didnt know by now, I also make a lot of money on the Warriors playing them not only on sides( in BGP selections), but also on plays in the 2nd HF(where it is very profitable if you know what signs to look for), Teasers (often good to tease Hawaii's over exaggerated lines down or up), and also on the Over/Unders (both for the game and the 2nd HFs) which have been EZ money for awhile now...
So please dont get stupid like some do, thinking that the Co-Captain only plays the Warriors on the game...No, No, No..never had and never will...To win in Hawaii games, spreading out your plays most times is always a better money making proposition if you know how and when to do it....Still, there are games like this one where I simply like the side action the most and that is why I am pounding it Big....Anyway, whatever you decide to do, I wish you ALL the Best of Luck and Aloha as always, Co-Captain....Now Lets ROCK-N-ROLL HAWAIIAN STYLE BABY!....AWWRIIGHT!
**BIG GAME PLAY--GAME OF THE YEAR selection on:
HAWAII -2.5 (buy .5pt)
-Ok, below are some Key Factors and Situational Edges that I feel will favor the Warriors Big in this game between the two...I also have listed some Stats and Trends for you that support my play on the Warriors, so without further adew lets get to them.
*KEY FACTOR #1: The Warriors Potent Air Attack led by QB Timmy Chang VS La Tech's poor Pass Defense.
Now, I am not going into all the National or WAC Conf stats that show this Warrior Passing attack and Offense, lead by QB Timmy Chang, as one of the nations leaders, and which have been on the top in these categories year in and year out since June Jones brought his wide open, highly sophisticated, and high scoring Offensive schemes here from the ranks of the NFL....What I will talk about more...which seemingly no one is willing to do, is on the Weakness of the Bulldogs on Defense, which is in their swiss cheese Defense against the pass...
This year, the Bulldogs are ranked in the lower 1/4 in the nation in Total Pass Defense....The Bulldogs also rank 9th (2nd to last) in the WAC Conf in Pass Defense, allowing 238.9 ypg...Last in the WAC in pass completion allowed per game at 19....9th (2nd to last) in pass completion % allowed in WAC....Last in the WAC in most Pass TDs given up with 19 on the year....and 3rd fewest in Interceptions in the year with 9.
Now lets look a little closer at this Bulldog Pass Defense vs WAC opponents and one Sun Belt opponent (omitting games vs Miami, Auburn, and Tenn)....Vs Nevada (ranked 3rd in WAC in passing offense, with 5th ranked passing QB) the Bulldogs allowed 244 yards passing, 23 of 38, and 61% completions.....Vs UL Laf (Sun Belts 2nd ranked passing QB and passing offense) the Bulldogs allowed 327 yards passing, 32 of 55, and 58% completions.....Vs Fresno St (ranked 9th in passing offense, with 7th ranked passing QB) the Bulldogs allowed 104 yards passing, 13 of 28, and 46.4% completions.....Vs SMU (ranked 5th in passing offense, with 8th ranked passing QB) the Bulldogs allowed 288 yards passing, 26 of 53, and 50% completions.....Vs Utep (ranked 4th in passing offense, with 3rd ranked passing QB) the Bulldogs allowed 259 yards passing, 17 of 30, and 57% completions......Today, they will face the #1 passing offense averaging 330.1 yards passing per game...and the #1 ranked passing QB in Timmy Chang.
Ok, I lied...I will need to talk about QB Timmy Chang and this Warrior Offensive pass attack...Right now they are the #1 Pass Attack in the WAC Conf, averaging 330.1 ypg...This Warrior Offense is also ranked 30th in the nation in scoring with 31.1 ppg...at home they are averaging 42 ppg...The Warriors are ranked 10th in the nation in passing offense.....They are tied for 8th in the nation in passing TDs with 15, and in fewest INTS on the year....They are also ranked 2nd in the nation in completions per game with 28.6....and 2nd in the nation in yards passing per game with 330.1.
Now lets look at what this Warrior pass attack did at home vs WAC opponents.....Vs Tulsa (ranked 5th in pass defense, allowing 188.5 ypg) Chang went 23-45 for 397 yards......Vs Nevada (ranked 3rd in pass defense, allowing just 167.4 ypg) Chang went 21-35-1 for 322 yards.....and Vs SJST (ranked #1 in pass defense, allowing 178.3 ypg) Chang went 26-40-2 for 341 yards.....At HOME this year vs WAC opponents, the Warriors pass attack led by Timmy Chang averaged 353.3 ypg and 42 ppg....and today they will be facing one of the worst pass defenses not only in the nation, but in the WAC as well....WOW!
Side Note: This years success through the air can also be attributed to the solid Offensive Line play from the veteran Big Uglies Unit that the Warriors got upfront....So far this year, they rank as the 6th Best in least sacks allowed with 9...This also ranks them 2nd in the WAC in least sacks allowed only behind the run all the time, Rice team who allowed 8 sacks on the year so far....OUTSTANDING!...Plus, La Tech's other weakness on Defense was in establishing a pass rush...and vs their last 3 WAC opponents, the Bulldogs were only able to record 4 sacks (2 vs Fresno, 1 vs SMU, and 1 vs Utep)...Not good to give Timmy Chang all day to pass as he can rip secondaries apart when he has all day to pass.
*KEY FACTOR #2: Look out for the Warriors ground attack at Home.
Yes, I said it again....Hawaii's ground attack!....What also makes Boise St solid is their coaches who were just one of the few to recognize that if Hawaii gets their running game going, then trying to stop their passing game will become that much more impossible....Boise St's coaches knew this and that became their first priority of stopping, whereas, most teams will simply only concentrate on stopping Chang and the passing game....This is wrong, because Chang will get his yards, but you dont want the Warriors to put up yards both through the Air and on the Ground...When Hawaii is able to do this, their Offense can be unstoppable...especially at home.
Speaking of the ground attack....Hawaii, though ranking as one of the worst in the nation and last in the WAC on the ground, you have to still look at the fact that when they do decide to run it, they have been very efficient and effective....Currently, Hawaii is averaging 5.0 yards per carry...which ranks as 14th Best in the nation in this category...Hawaii's SR tandem RB duo of "Big Boy" (280 Keliikipi) and "Little Man" (5'6" Brewster) have been very effective running the ball at home.
This year at home vs WAC opponents, the Warriors have rushed for over 100 yards in all 3 games....In fact, Vs Tulsa, Hawaii gained 128 yards on 23 carries (5.6 ypc)..Brewster went 8-81 yards (10.1 ypc) and Keliikipi went 10-64 yards (6.4 ypc)......Vs Nevada, Hawaii rushed for 251 yards on 24 carries (10.5 ypc)...Brewster went 9-150 (16.7 ypc) and Keliikipi went 3-31 yards (10.3 ypc).....Vs SJST, Hawaii rushed for 108 yards on 30 carries (3.6 ypc)...Brewster went 15-49 (3.3 ypc) and Keliikipi went 6-21 (3.5 ypc).......The Bulldog Defense vs the Run is ranked 5th in the WAC, giving up an average of 4.2 ypc and 162.5 ypg on the ground so far this year.
Side Note: Remember and lets not forget, La Tech's Defense last year was the worst Defense in the nation giving up an average of 510.5 ypg and allowed 32.8 ppg...and even though they hired a new DC, Tim Rose, who installed a new 3-4 defensive scheme, dont forget also that he came from Eastern Michigan where defense is also not an issue....Hawaii's Defense is poor, but dont forget, this one is being played in their House and La Tech's somewhat better defensive stats, where also masked by Moats eating up a lot of clock, keeping them off the field...but this may not work against Hawaii's quick strike offense.
*KEY FACTOR #3: RB Moats good...but he is their lone star and I dont think he will be enough vs Hawaii's bend but dont break Defense at Home?
Ok, I am a big fan of RB Moats who reminds me so much of my favorite NFL running back Barry Sanders....And I am not going to kid myself by saying that Hawaii will shut him down or even hold him to under 200 yards rushing...No, I believe that he will get his yards, just like he did last year vs the Warriors where he gained 264 yards and scored 4 TDs, in their 44-41 loss...Hawaii, this year, got shredded for over 400 yards by both Rice and Boise St....but remember, those games were on the ROAD and I dont see Hawaii, even with all their defensive injuries, allowing any WAC opponent to gain that much on the ground, on their Home Turf....Plus, the difference in those games besides being on the road....is that, for one, Rice has multiple running threats that can kill you, and they also simply only run the ball...and second, Boise St has a very potent balanced offensive attack...La Tech doesnt have any of these two things, they are now on the Road, and really they only have RB Moats to carry the load.
La Tech is basically a one dimensional team relying almost entirely on him...This is more so the issue this year, especially with the loss of their star QB and the nations 5th most prolific passer in NCAA history,in McCown, loss to graduation...This year, the Bulldogs are relying on players who are playing for the first time ever, and also who will be playing for their first time ever in Hawaii...Making matters a little harder on the passing game is that their chosen starter QB Allen is sidelined with an injury, leaving struggling backup Kubik to lead the offense....This kid Kubik sucks **** big time...and his current stats this year has proven this...He is currently hitting ONLY 52% of his passes, and has just 4 passing TDs to his 8 interceptions...In their last game vs Utep, when Moats went down and later returned but was slowed with the injury...La Tech's offense behind the arm of Kubik simply could not get anything done when they had to play catch up at home against the Miners...In that game, he only completed 9 of 28 passes for ONLY 151 yards and had 3 interceptions.....How effective do you think this youngster will be in his first game in Hawaii, and trying to play catch up or score matching with Chang and Co....If the Warriors jump out Big early...I say it will be a long night for this QB, as the Warriors may be poor against the run, but vs the pass...they still have been solid at home where they have at least 1 interception in each of their last 3 home games vs WAC opponents, and also got recorded 9 sacks in these 3 home games as well.
Other poor passing stats on the year for La Tech....they are currently ranked in the bottom 1/3 in the nation in passing offense and 7th in the WAC in this category averaging just 191.8 ypg....Bulldogs also has the 2nd least passes for TDs with ONLY 5...They also only have two receivers with catches in the DD's with 16 and 15...compared to Hawaii having 5 WRs in with DD catches and all of them with 20 + on the year...WOW!...This lack of WR production is due mostly to their young inexperienced QB's, but it is also due to the Bulldogs losing 3 of their Top WRs from last years team to graduation as well.
Why is the struggling passing game of La Tech important in this game? ...Because, what has happened in their previous games, and more so in their last game vs Utep, is exposed to the Warriors and everyone else, not only that their offense is completely and utterly reliant on Moats to carry the entire load...But, Utep also exposed that their weak passing offense is not able to put a comeback via the pass together should they fall behind in points, or if Moats gets injured, or is made ineffective by the opponents defenses stacking the line to stop him....This weakness of La Tech on passing offense, has given their opponents a perfect game plan to beating them, which btw, was perfectly played out by Utep in their 44-27 victory over La Tech in Ruston...The plan, stack the line and try to contain not stop Moats...If La Tech wants to pass, let them go for it...like I mentioned earlier, they only have two WRs who have DD receptions in the year, and both of them total under 18 catches...Plus, add in to this the fact that their young, inexperienced QB is only hitting 52% of his passes this year, have only thrown 4 TDs, and have 8 ints on the year so far..it shows completely that Moats is the immediate threat....Without a threat in a passing game to make use of what he has produced on the ground...makes it that much easier and predictable to defend against should La Tech's offense be put in 2nd and 3rd down and long situations.
Still, Moats is where the Bulldogs will live and die by, and he wont be going down to any defense easy by any means...and especially not to this poorous and banged up defense of the Warriors......But, the weak pass attack of the Bulldogs and the potent offensive attack that the Warriors possess..is where another key to containing Moats will lie....Utep's offense did this, and I feel the Warriors offense, especially at home is capable of doing this as well....maybe even better....What this is put up points on La Tech and keep the pressure on its offense to keep up....Utep was able to do this once they got the lead, and kept the pressure on the Bulldogs by not playing conservation at all, and it paid off with points being constantly put on the board....When this happened, La Tech's offense who uses a lot of clock, simply had no choice but to use Moats less in the offensive schemes and depend more on their struggling QB....Utep kept the pressure on the Bulldogs by taking advantage of their poorous defense, which forced them to use the passing game more, something they definitely dont want to do....and I can certainly see the Warriors and Chang putting up just as much pressure with their passing attack and quick scoring offense....If Hawaii gets up early, Moats will be made less effective, especially late in the game...and this is where La Tech's Star and offense will not be able to survive....Everyone is concerned about how Hawaii will contain Moats...well, I dont think they need to stop him, just contain him....and then let their offense put up points on this weak Bulldog defense, then letting La Tech try to beat the Warriors using their weakness..its QB to come back.
Side Note: This La Tech Offensive Line with all 5 starters back and all of which are in the 300 lb + range is what makes Moats that much more of a dangerous runner...This is a solid run blocking Big Uglies Unit....but, it is NOT a good pass blocking Big Uglies Unit....Last year's weakness on Offense for the Bulldogs was in its pass protection, as they were loaded with Stars besides Moats in the skilled positions especially at QB....But what cause them to falter many times on drives was their poor pass protection....Last year this O-Line unit gave up a whooping 36 sacks on the year....So, you would assume that having another year under their belts that they would be a lot better this year...Well, this is not the case as this O-Line Unit is the worst in the league in pass protection and has already given up 28 sacks on the year so far....they are currently also tied for 4th in the nation in most Sacks allowed...
Last week vs Utep's smallish D-Line unit, they gave up Sacks...yet another problem for this Bulldogs passing offense...Hawaii at Home has been able to record 9 sacks vs their last 3 Conf opponents, as they used blitzing packages to try and create TOs and take away one of the aspects of their opponents offenses....as stopping the run they simply struggle to stop even at home....Today, I see them being able to pressure La Tech's less mobile QB Kubik and that should be easier to game plan against should those things mentioned above fall into place...
*KEY FACTOR #4: Special Special Teams play at Home for the Warriors w/ duo threat WR/PR Chad Owens.
As I mentioned above...La Techs only real Star is RB Moats, who must carry his team on his shoulders to victory....For Hawaii though, it is not exactly the same, even though many think that QB Timmy Chang is the only Star for the Warriors...Not so....this Warrior team also has Stars in their Special teams, and this year they have come up with record tying and game changing plays...
One of them is Star WR/PR Chad Owens (Bilitnikoff nominee)(sp)....This year, Owen's has been given the green light to field punt returns whenever he feels like it, a difference from previous years when he became a starting WR on offense....But this his Sr year, Jones promised him that he could return punts whenever he feels up to it...and Owens has simply responded by returning 3 punts, in Hawaii's last 3 home games for TDs...Owens is also currently ranked 2nd in the WAC in both total punt return yards and average yards per punt return.....Owens also is on the verge of breaking career records as well, as he only needs 116 yards to become Hawaii's career All-Purpose Yardage leader..
In games played at home this year...Hawaii's Special teams play, especially in returns(KO and PR) have been outstanding and have given Hawaii's offense many good field positions to work with...ie, vs Tulsa Hawaii had a return yardage edge of 72 to 12.....Vs Nevada, Hawaii had a return yardage edge of 85 to 53......and Vs SJST, Hawaii had a return yardage edge of 110 to 4.
This year, La Tech leads the Conf with the most punts with 51 so far this year...20 more than the Warriors....Also, this year they are very green in the Punting and Kicking departments..as they have to replace two of last years solid special teams performers in All WAC PK Josh Scobee (NFL) and Punter Upton's consistant 40+ yard average...Hawaii should have the edge here at home with their experienced All Conf Punter in Milne and PK Ayat, over the Bulldogs two Freshman's who will need to deal with this important task, while also playing on the Road today..
Side Note: Other Special Team players who are contributing well for Hawaii are KR Jason Ferguson who is currently ranked 4th in the league averaging 25.2 yards per a KO return, with a long of 66 yards...Compared to La Tech's return man Franklin who ranks 8th in the Conf in KO returns, with a long of only 34 yards....Hawaii's Senior PK Ayat, has also kicked a 56 yard FG at home this year, tying Denver Broncos Jason Elams career longest FG record at Hawaii...Lastly, La Tech lost last years game at home to Hawaii when their All Star PK Scobee missed a 53 yard FG late in the game....
*SOME SITUATIONAL EDGES: Working for in the Warriors Favor...
-QB Timmy Chang's quest to be the Best of All Time....Timmy Chang has another opportunity to set the record in this game and also make up for last weeks disaster on Nationally Televised game at Boise where he set the All Time Int Record, instead of the All Time Passing Yardage Record...Hawaii fans happy and motivated that they get to see this happen at Home and will come out to support their local boy with a lot of energy tonight...Last weeks lost seems to be almost forgotten already.
-Do or Die game for the Warriors Bowl Hopes....This is a must win game for the Warriors here as they will need to win 4 of their last 5 games in order to go to their Bowl game....Bowl games are important for Jones plans on building a consistant Top 25 caliber Football program...and exposure on National TV in the Bowls is one way to do this, not to mention, bringing in money to the program and helping with recruiting...Hawaii's SRs are positive on turning things around starting with the Bulldogs....No time to look ahead to Fresno St, or even worry that its another game on the road, at Fresno who will be playing with triple revenge...Hawaii knows they suck on the road and that Fresno is one of the toughest places to play...But, they also know that a loss here will almost certainly spell no Bowl Game this year for them.
-Longest Road Trip ever for the Bulldogs...plus, the change in weather does have an affect on traveling opponents....La Tech had to travel 4,000 miles and across 5 times zones just to get here for the game....Currently right now, the weather in Hawaii is humid which is at 93% and a High temp of 87 degrees, which they will also have to adjust to in a short time....Many teams who come here at this time of year become sluggish and simply drained of energy by the 2nd half of the game as the travel woes start creeping up on them...RB Moats and his Big Uglies Unit may be all worn out after all the running that they will be doing....I still remember when Alabama potent rush attack came to town two years ago...and their All Time leading RB and QB was completely gasping for oxygen by the end of the 3rd Q...
-Home Sweet Home for the Warriors, but paradise and all its distractions can work against the visitors focus on the game...Too many distractions for this Bulldog squad to stay completely focused on this game. This trip, will represent for most of them their only chance to ever visit these islands and its treasures, "if you know what I mean". You know they have been fully complimented and accommodated with an overwhelming abundance of distrations since they stepped off the plane. And it will only continue until the game is over. How does one keep their young, horny ass, minds on a stupid game, which they must feel they should win EZ.
-Hawaii off an embarrassing loss to Boise St...Hawaiian Pride and playing at home again will reenergize this Warrior team to overcome that embarassing loss with a solid win over the Bulldogs....Jones even stated that he still feels the pain and embarassment of last weeks loss...but stated that you get over it by simply playing the next game and winning it.
*SOME STATS, TRENDS, and INFO: which work in favor of the Warriors.
-La Tech is 1-7-1 ATS away off SU loss vs < .500 opponent.
-La Tech is 2-10 ATS off a bye week.
-La Tech is 1-3 the last 3 years when playing w/ 2 weeks or more rest.
-La Tech is 3-11 ATS vs teams with a losing record.
-La Tech is 1-11 ATS vs teams allowing 5.9 or more yards per play.
-La Tech is 2-4 ATS as a Road Dog of 3.5 to 7 pts since 1992.
-La Tech is 7-13 ATS in games played on Turf since 1992...Last 3 seasons, La Tech is 3-3 ATS in games played on Turf....This will be their first game on Turf this year.
-La Tech is 5-13 ATS the last 3 years in Road Games....La Tech is 1-3 ATS in Road Games this year.
-La Tech is 2-8 SU and ATS in last 10 road games in November
-Hawaii is 11-5 ATS in last 16 Home games in November
-Hawaii is 4-2 last 3 years off a loss vs a Conf rival.
-Hawaii is 2-0 SU and ATS vs La Tech....Covered last year at La Tech as a Road Dog winning outright...and then in 2000 at home winning 27-10.
-Hawaii is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS this year at Home.
Hawaii Off/Def Home Games Stats...and La Techs Off/Def Road Games Stats...
-Hawaii's Offense at Home this year averaging 469.0 ypg, 42 ppg, 24 FDs, 6.9 ypp, 5.9 ypr, 1.0 TOs, and TOP 27:01..
-Hawaii's Defense at Home this year allowing opponents to average 395.2 ypg, 26.2 ppg, 22.7 FDs, 4.8 ypp, 4.3 ypr, 2.2 TOs, and Opps TOP 32:59..
-La Tech's Offense on the Road this year averaging 331.2 ypg, 16.2 ppg, 14.2 FDs, 5.3 ypp, 3 ypr, 2.2 TOs., and TOP 32:19.
-La Tech's Defense on the Road this year allowing Home teams to average 442.0 ypg, 38 ppg, 20.5 FDs, 6.4 ypp, 5.0 ypr, 1.5 TOs., and Opps TOP 27:40.
*Lastly, I want to mention that no matter how anyone feels about QB Timmy Chang, good or bad, is their own business....but keep in mind that what he is achieving is something that will never ever be achieved again..and this achievement is simply an amazing and impressive accomplishment by any standards, no matter what way you try to spin it....Like Trev Alberts said, someone still had to take the snap, someone still had to pass the ball, and someone still had to catch the ball...so no matter how you try to discredit this accomplishment or water down this milestone...it is still going to be a very impressive achievement...Also, for those who are making an issue of Timmy breaking the All Time Interception Record, which probably wont be broken as well...just remember one of the best ever HR hitter, Babe Ruth, who holds several batting records...also holds the record for the most strike outs, as well....When this day is done, Timmy Chang will have his record and his name will be forever locked in NCAA College Football history..and that no one will be able to take away from him, no matter what.
GL Gang...and LET GO GET EM!....ALOHA CC.
