NFL Opening Line Report: Steelers home underdogs without Big Ben
“I've been making the home team in this rivalry a one to 3-point favorite for as long as I can remember, but without Roethlisberger, that won't be the case here." - John Avello, Wynn
A key AFC North tilt kicks off Week 4 in the NFL, with Baltimore traveling to rival Pittsburgh to play under the Thursday night lights, with both teams reeling. The Ravens still haven’t cracked the win column SU or ATS, and the Steelers lost stud quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to a left knee injury Sunday.
Baltimore (0-3 SU and ATS), a 2.5-point home favorite against Cincinnati Sunday, rallied from a 14-0 deficit to take a 24-21 lead with four minutes left. But the Bengals then drove for a touchdown, handing the Ravens a 28-24 loss.
This week’s trip to Heinz Field marks Baltimore’s third road game of the season already, after the Ravens opened with losses at Denver and at Oakland in games that easily could have fallen in the Ravens’ favor.
The Steelers (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) escaped St. Louis with an ugly 12-6 victory Sunday as a 1.5-point road underdog, but Roethlisberger exited in the third quarter and left the stadium on crutches with an MCL sprain. He’s expected to miss four to six weeks.
John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.eu, made the Ravens a 2.5-point chalk.
“The loss of Roethlisberger is huge. He’s worth at least seven points to a spread because of the offense Pittsburgh runs and the fact that backup Michael Vick is a bottom-tier replacement,” Lester said. “If Big Ben isn’t available, and it doesn’t appear he will be, the offense will struggle. Prior to the injury, we were looking to make the home team between a six and 7-point favorite.”
Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, said he’ll be adjusting from a long-held formula.
“I've been making the home team in this rivalry a one to 3-point favorite for as long as I can remember, but without Roethlisberger, that won't be the case here,” Avello told Covers. “The Ravens haven't played that poorly, they just haven't won, and they will be the road favorite for this game.”
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (OTB)
Despite losing star wideout Jordy Nelson for the year in preseason play, the Packers (2-0 SU and ATS) didn’t miss a beat in the first two weeks. Green Bay won and cashed on the road against Chicago in Week 1, then dropped two-time defending NFC champion Seattle 27-17 in Week 2 as a 3.5-point home fave.
The Packers close out the NFL’s Week 3 slate by hosting Kansas City Monday night.
San Francisco (1-2 SU and ATS) shed its head coach and some key players between last year and the 2015 season, and is still trying to sort things out. On Sunday at Arizona, the 49ers got hammered 47-7 as a 7-point pup.
“The Niners haven't shown a whole lot to get excited about, and Colin Kaepernick looked like a rookie against the Cardinals on Sunday,” Avello said. “In the past, I would say that maybe their defense might slow Aaron Rodgers down, but then again, what defense?
With Green Bay still to play tonight, there’s no line on the game yet, but all things being equal, Lester said the Packers will probably be touchdown favorites.
“As long as no one significant gets injured for Green Bay on Monday – and I certainly hope that isn’t the case, the way quarterbacks are dropping in this league – we will look to make the Packers seven or 8-point favorites,” Lester said. “The Niners aren’t as bad as they’ve looked the last two weeks, but they are up against a juggernaut here.”
St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)
With a healthy Carson Palmer at quarterback, Arizona is rolling and continues to play well in its home dome. On Sunday, the Cardinals (3-0 SU and ATS) steamrolled San Francisco 47-7 laying seven points at home. Arizona is 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS in its last 18 at home.
St. Louis (1-2 SU and ATS) opened the season with a home upset of Seattle, winning 34-31 as a 3.5-point pup, then was inexplicably pedestrian against a much weaker foe, losing 24-10 at Washington as a 3-point fave. The offensive inadequacies continued Sunday in a 12-6 home loss to Pittsburgh as a 1.5-point fave, despite the Steelers being without Ben Roethlisberger the last 20 minutes of the game.
“As I’ve said before, the Cardinals are very underrated, especially at home,” Lester said. “St. Louis is stuck in quicksand offensively, and that’s not where you want to be against this Arizona defense. I would’ve liked to make the Cards a bit higher favorite, but if this ends up being a defensive battle, we didn’t want to expose ourselves to the sharp dog bettors.”
Said Avello: “It appears that this might be an easy one for the Cards, and I'm not taking anything away from them, because they are a very good team. But the three clubs they've beaten have a combined total of one win,” Avello said. “The Rams are very familiar with the Phoenix surroundings, and this is a division game that will be sought out by a very desperate St. Louis team.”
Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (OTB)
The injury bug has bitten Dallas hard, as it lost all-world wideout Dez Bryant (broken foot) in Week 1 and standout QB Tony Romo (broken clavicle) in Week 2. The Cowboys (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) managed to win both games (1-1 ATS) and were poised to go to 3-0 when they took a 28-14 halftime lead Sunday against Atlanta. But the Cowboys didn’t score the rest of the way, losing 39-28 laying one point at home.
New Orleans’ precipitous fall continued Sunday in a 27-22 loss at Carolina as a 10-point dog. The Saints (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) were without Drew Brees (rotator cuff), and his status isn’t yet set for the Sunday night game.
For several years, the Saints were among the stoutest teams in the league at home, but they lost their home opener this year to Tampa Bay 26-19 as a healthy 9.5-point chalk and have now dumped six in a row SU and seven in row ATS at the Superdome.
“We’re going to wait to see what the status of Brees is before putting up a number,” Lester said. “He’s not as valuable as he used to be, but he would still impact a line at minimum four to five points. If Brees is out again, two backups squaring off under center complicates things a bit. If that is the case, we will likely open the Cowboys as short chalk.”
Avello noted that with no Romo and possibly no Brees, this game has lost a ton of allure for bettors.
“I don't believe that before the season started, any of us thought we would see a Brandon Weeden/Luke McCown matchup for this prime-time contest,” Avello said. “For sure we're seeing Weeden, and there's a slight chance that Brees will return. Although team recognition is there for bettors, I may leave work early next Sunday, because the action on this one may be light.
