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[CNOTES]

NFL Capsules
January 4, 2016


GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) The Minnesota Vikings won the NFC North by holding on for a 20-13 win Sunday night over the Green Bay Packers.


Adrian Peterson ran for a touchdown, cornerback Captain Munnerlyn returned a fumble 55 yards for a score, and Minnesota (11-5) claimed its first division title since 2009.


The Vikings will host the Seattle Seahawks for a wild-card playoff game next weekend. The Packers (10-6) will travel to Washington after watching their four-year reign atop the NFC North end.


The upstart Vikings survived despite a shaky finish in hostile territory. The defense knocked away a desperation pass in the end zone from Aaron Rodgers on fourth down as time expired.


Packers kicker Mason Crosby forced a fumble on Cordarrelle Patterson's potentially field-flipping 70-yard kickoff return with 5:21 left. But the Packers' next drive ended with Rodgers' pass being intercepted in the end zone by Xavier Rhodes.

BRONOS 27, CHARGERS 20


DENVER (AP) - Peyton Manning replaced Brock Osweiler in the third quarter Sunday and led the Broncos to a victory over San Diego that wrapped up the top seed in the AFC playoffs for Denver.


Combined with New England's loss at Miami, the Broncos (12-4) secured the No. 1 seed even as they head into the playoffs with a quarterback quandary on their hands.


The Chargers (4-12) wrapped up what might have been their final season representing San Diego as ownership tries to move the team to L.A.


The Broncos were facing the possibility of tumbling into the wild-card round because of Kansas City's 10th consecutive win, 23-17 over Oakland, when Manning came to the rescue.


BILLS 22, JETS 17


ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. (AP) - Ryan Fitzpatrick threw interceptions on each of New York's final three drives and the Jets' playoff hopes were dashed.


The Jets (10-6) would have made the postseason for the first time since 2010 with a win, but the defeat combined with Pittsburgh's win at Cleveland ended those hopes. New York had a five-game winning streak stopped, and the loss came against former Jets coach Rex Ryan - fired by New York and hired by the Bills (8-8) last January.


Fitzpatrick, who had thrown just one interception in the Jets' winning streak, was picked off by Leodis McKelvin in the end zone early in the fourth quarter with New York driving.


The game was decided when Fitzpatrick's side-arm pass over the middle was intercepted by A.J. Tarpley with 11 seconds remaining.

STEELERS 28, BROWNS 12


CLEVELAND (AP) - Ben Roethlisberger threw three touchdown passes, Pittsburgh's defense dominated and the Steelers slipped into the AFC playoffs with the win over Cleveland, which fired coach Mike Pettine and GM Ray Farmer after the game.


The Steelers (10-6) had to win and needed Buffalo to knock off the New York Jets to make the postseason. Pittsburgh did its part, then earned a wild-card berth when the Bills beat the 22-17. Pittsburgh will play at Cincinnati next weekend.


Roethlisberger threw for 349 yards, 187 to Antonio Brown, who had 13 catches and a TD.


The Browns finished 3-13.


DOLPHINS 20, PATRIOTS 10


MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. (AP) - Tom Brady was sacked twice and knocked down at least half a dozen times, and New England missed a chance to clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs.


Brady watched New England's final offensive series from the sideline. With the Patriots eager to protect his health, he threw a season-low 21 passes, but even so was lucky to make it through the game in one piece.


New England (12-4) ends up as a No. 2 seed after Denver defeated San Diego to earn the top seed.


The Dolphins (6-10) wrapped up a disappointing season and are expected to embark on a search for their ninth coach since 2004.


TEXANS 30, JAGUARS 6


HOUSTON (AP) - J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus led the defense and Jonathan Grimes scored twice to help the Texans clinch the AFC South.


Houston will host Kansas City next weekend in the a wild-card game.


Grimes had a 12-yard touchdown reception and added a 3-yard rushing score in the second quarter to help Houston take a 20-3 lead by halftime. Kareem Jackson added a score on an interception return in the fourth quarter to pad the lead.


Watt, playing without a cast for the first time since breaking his left hand Dec. 9, had had three sacks, forced a fumble and recovered another one to help the Texans (9-7) to their first division title and playoff berth since 2012.


Blake Bortles threw for 239 yards with two interceptions for the Jaguars (5-11)


BENGALS 24, RAVENS 16


CINCINNATI (AP) - AJ McCarron overcame a rough start and threw a pair of touchdown passes.


The Bengals (12-4) matched the best record in franchise history - they also won 12 games during the 1981 and 1988 seasons when they reached the Super Bowl.


Cincinnati will host Pittsburgh next weekend in a wild-card game.


The AFC North champions wasted a chance to clinch the No. 2 seed when they lost in Denver 20-17 on Monday night.


The Ravens finished 5-11.


PANTHERS 38, BUCCANEERS 10


CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) - Cam Newton ran for two touchdowns and threw for two more, and Carolina captured the NFC's No. 1 seed for the first time.


Newton tied Steve Young's NFL record for most career TDs rushing by a quarterback with 43. Young took 15 seasons to reach that plateau; Newton did it in five.


Newton completed 21 of 26 passes for 293 yards as Carolina (15-1) overcame a slow start to build a 31-3 lead in the third quarter.


Rookie Devin Funchess had seven catches for 120 yards and a touchdown and Cameron Artis-Payne ran for 44 yards and a score as Carolina won its 11th straight home game.


Jameis Winston was intercepted twice, and the Bucs (6-10) finished last in the NFC South for the fourth time in five years.


CHIEFS 23, RAIDERS 17


KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) - Alex Smith threw two touchdown passes, Kansas City sacked Derek Carr six times, and the Chiefs collected a franchise-best 10th straight win.


The Chiefs are headed to Houston for a wild-card game next weekend after Denver won the AFC West with its win over San Diego.


Regardless, the Chiefs (11-5) are somehow in the dance after a 1-5 start.


The Raiders (7-9), who accounted for two of those victories, had the ball with 1:34 left. But Carr was sacked one last time, and the clock expired before they came close to a go-ahead touchdown.


SEAHAWKS 36, CARDINALS 6


GLENDALE, Ariz. (AP) - Russell Wilson threw three touchdown passes in a second-quarter outburst and Seattle snapped Arizona's nine-game winning streak.


Seattle will play at either Washington or Minnesota in the wild card round next weekend, depending on the outcome of Sunday night's game between the Vikings and Green Bay.


The Seahawks (10-6) dominated from their opening possession and led 30-6 at the half.


It was a sour end to the regular season for the NFC West champion Cardinals (13-3), who already had clinched the NFC's No. 2 seed and a first-round playoff bye.


Tyler Lockett set up three of Seattle's four first-half touchdowns - with punt returns of 66 and 42 yards and a 36-yard reception.


EAGLES 35, GIANTS 30


EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) - The New York Giants suffered another tough loss in what may have been Tom Coughlin's final game.


Former Giant Walter Thurmond scored on an 83-yard fumble return in the third quarter and Philadelphia added to Coughlin's season-long frustrations.


It was the third straight loss for the Giants (6-10) and finished a third straight losing season and a fourth straight year out of the playoffs.


After meeting with Eagles interim coach Pat Shurmur at midfield, Coughlin walked off the field, waving to the crowd just before walking into the tunnel.


Coughlin, who led the Giants to two Super Bowl titles in his 12 seasons, has a year left on his contract. His future is expected to be decided soon by co-owners John Mara and Steve Tisch.


The 69-year-old might retire and end his 20-year NFL head coaching career.


REDSKINS 34, COWBOYS 23


ARLINGTON, Texas (AP) - Kirk Cousins threw for three touchdowns before leaving late in the first half of a playoff tuneup.


Cousins broke Jay Shroeder's franchise record for yards passing in a season, finishing with 4,166. Had the game mattered, he might have threatened Sonny Jurgensen's 48-year-old team record of 31 touchdown passes, instead settling for 29.


The Redskins (9-7) won four straight to finish the season, their longest streak since winning the last seven the last time they made the playoffs in 2012. The NFC East champions will be the No. 4 seed on wild-card weekend.


Kellen Moore had 435 yards passing and three touchdowns after throwing an interception and losing a fumble on a snap to help dig a quick 21-0 hole for the Cowboys (4-12).


COLTS 30, TITANS 24


INDIANAPOLIS (AP) - Recently signed Josh Freeman and Ryan Lindley each threw a touchdown pass in the first half and Jerrell Freeman scored on a 23-yard interception in the second for the Colts.


The Colts (8-8) won their last two games to avoid the first losing season since 2011, but didn't get the help they needed - a Houston loss and seven other games to go the right way - to make the postseason.


Josh Freeman was 15 of 28 for 149 yards and one interception while running Indy's regular offense. Lindley ran the 2-minute offense and gave Indy a 20-14 halftime lead with an 18-yard TD pass.


Tennessee (3-13) clinched the No. 1 draft pick by losing its fourth straight. Quarterback Zach Mettenberger fell to 0-10 as a starter.


SAINTS 20, FALCONS 17


ATLANTA (AP) - Jamarca Sanford's interception at the Atlanta 25 with less than two minutes remaining set up Kai Forbath's 30-yard field goal as time expired.


Sanford cut in front of Devonta Freeman for the interception with 1:47 remaining.


It was the Saints' sixth sweep of the season series with the Falcons in 10 years under coach Sean Payton. Payton is 15-5 against Atlanta.


The loss denied the Falcons (8-8) their chance to give first-year coach Dan Quinn a winning record. The Saints (7-9) avoided giving coach Sean Payton his first 10-loss season.


Drew Brees threw for 323 yards, including a touchdown pass to Ben Watson.


Julio Jones had nine catches for 149 yards for Atlanta.


LIONS 24, BEARS 20


CHICAGO (AP) - Matthew Stafford threw for 298 yards and three touchdowns, Calvin Johnson had 137 yards receiving for the Lions.


Detroit (7-9) avoided a last-place finish in the NFC North with its sixth win in eight games. Whether the Lions bring back coach Jim Caldwell for a third season remains to be seen.


He led them to a rare playoff appearance last year, but a 1-7 start put his future in doubt.


Caldwell survived a midseason purge that saw offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi get fired and ownership drop the ax on president Tom Lewand and general manager Martin Mayhew the following week.


The Lions intercepted Jay Cutler three times.


49ERS 19, RAMS 16 OT


SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) - Phil Dawson kicked a 23-yard field goal 11:33 into overtime for his fourth of the game to lift San Francisco in Jim Tomsula's last game as coach.


Tomsula was fired after the game.


Dawson came through after Greg Zuerlein's 48-yard field goal attempt was blocked by Dontae Johnson, giving San Francisco the ball back with 4:49 to play.


Blaine Gabbert passed for 354 yards and a 33-yard touchdown for the 49ers (5-11), who avoided their worst finish since 4-12 in 2005.


Rams coach Jeff Fisher finished 7-9 for his fourth straight losing season running the team.

 

[CNOTES]

Coaching Carousel Update
January 1, 2016


BLACK MONDAY LOOMS IN NFL


The day after the regular season concludes has earned the title "Black Monday" because so many coaches have had the axe fall upon them on that very day over the years. This season should be no different, as sources say up to a dozen NFL mentors could be in trouble when the regular season concludes.


A couple of teams, however, beat "Black Monday" to the punch when announcing their intentions before this weekend's final regular-season games. Those include the Eagles, whose owner Jeffrey Lurie gave HC Chip Kelly his pink slip on Tuesday, and the Jags, taking an opposite stance when owner Shad Khan announced that under-fire HC Gus Bradley would return in 2016.


In Kelly's case, season-long disappointment had reached untenable levels in recent home losses to the Cardinals and Redskins that knocked the Birds out of the playoff picture, with each of those teams clinching their division titles on the Eagles' turf! Kelly, who in the offseason had won an organizational struggle with Howie Roseman for control of the team's personnel decisions, would swing and miss on most of his many roster moves and free-agent signings. Pressure mounted throughout the regular season to the point where Lurie had decided he was not going to let Kelly keep both a personnel and coaching role into the future.


Sources say that when Kelly balked at the idea of relinquishing any power earlier this week, Lurie quickly decided to cut the cord. Also out in Philly is Ed Marynowitz, whom Kelly had enlisted to run the Eagles' personnel department. Ex-Bills and Steelers GM Tom Donahoe was named the new senior director of player personnel, but it is expected that none other than Roseman will re-emerge in a supremo role. Lurie also reportedly wanted to get a head start at finding a replacement for Kelly, though he cannot contact NFL assistants until midnight on Sunday after the regular season concludes.


As for Jacksonville, Bradley entered this season (his third) not with a must-win edict, but rather an improve-or-else order from owner Khan, who has pulled a quick trigger before with his coaches in other sports (running three managers out in his first season as owner of EPL Fulham) and was said to be growing a bit impatient. Though the Jags were officially eliminated from the playoff picture last week, their 5-10 mark does qualify as progress from last year's 3-13 and has bought Bradley, who reportedly has the support of his players, another season. Expect 2016 to be a "playoffs or bust" campaign for Bradley, though unlike Kelly, Bradley at least knows where he will be working next season.


Elsewhere there are plenty of "Black Monday"-related storylines to note. Before the regular season concludes and all heck breaks loose next Monday, a quick review is in order of those teams we believe have coaching situations possibly "in play" beginning next week.


Rex Ryan, Buffalo...Though not near the top of the list, there are some sources who believe Ryan might be in a bit of trouble after a disappointing debut season with the Bills. In his usual blustery manner, Ryan predicted a playoff berth for his new team, but nobody expected one of the NFL's best defenses to tail off dramatically under Ryan, whose schemes and alignments proved a poor fit for the personnel as Buffalo's defensive numbers would drop sharply this season. One of Ryan's loudest critics has been DE Mario Williams, almost certain to be released at the end of the season, though the fact there is apparent internal dismay in the clubhouse is a red flag for Ryan, whose Jets teams, especially in his earlier years in New York, were unfailingly supportive of their coach. New owners Terry and Kim Pegula are apparently dismayed at developments and the fact the team regressed from last season under Doug Marrone, as Ryan was not hired to oversee a rebuilding project...he was expected to win right off the bat. And while Ryan's early ouster looms as unlikely, Rexy can sure help his cause greatly by beating his old employer Jets this weekend to not only keep them out of the playoffs but also to get the Bills to .500. Ryan's chances to survive: 99%. (Note: Bills announced Thursday that Ryan would return in 2016.)


Mike Pettine, Cleveland...The Brownies entered the final weekend with a 3-17 mark over their last 20 games and with no indication that things are going to be improving anytime soon. Worse for Pettine is that his supposed defensive expertise has not translated to his team, which ranks near the bottom of NFL stats. Pettine has not been helped by the circus that seems to follow second-year Johnny Manziel, who has hardly looked like a franchise QB and now might have another issue to deal with (a new and apparently damning video during Christmas week) before the regular-season finale vs. the Steelers. Owner Jimmy Haslam is notoriously impatient, though after so much turnover in recent years, sources say Haslam might be a bit reluctant to hit the eject button on both Pettine and GM Ray Farmer. If one has to go, most believe it would be Farmer, though there is still a very good chance that Haslam cleans house again and dismisses them both. Pettine's chances to survive: 30%


Jason Garrett, Dallas...The new name to pop up on the list over the past week, as sources say Jerry Jones is not going to automatically give Garrett a mulligan for the Cowboys' 2015 collapse in the wake of QB Tony Romo's injuries. Jones has hinted as much in recent interviews, and sources say ol' Jer became especially incensed in recent weeks when watching his former backup, the released Brandon Weeden, who could not win a game as starter in relief of Romo in the first half of the season, steer the Texans to two important December wins. And that Houston would win games with four different QBs and put itself in position to steal the AFC South in a down year for the division, much as this season was in the NFC East. Of course, Jones can blame himself for not better fortifying the Dallas QB situation behind Romo, but now he might be changing his mind about Garrett, long Jones' fair-haired boy, but suddenly, and apparently quickly, falling out of favor. Sources say the situation to watch might be with New Orleans' Sean Payton, who once worked in Dallas and could be high on Jones' list. A Garrett dismissal (which would reportedly cost the Cowboys more than $20 million in a buy-out) might have to come in conjunction with being able to pry Payton away from the Saints. That scenario is a lot less far-fetched now than it seemed a month ago. Garrett's chances to survive: 55%.


Jim Caldwell, Detroit..One month ago we wouldn't have given Caldwell much, if any, chance to survive. Now there appears to be a scenario that might grant Caldwell a reprieve, based mostly upon the Lions' late-season rally that has seen them win 5 of 7 and come oh-so-close to 6 of 7 had they not allowed the Packers to complete a Hail Mary on the final play of the Dec. 3 game at Ford Field. Remember, 90-year-old franchise matriarch Martha Ford pushed her son Bill out of the way not long ago and began to wield the axe indiscriminately at midseason in what appeared to be stage one of a major housecleaning, jettisoning GM Martin Mayhew and team prexy Tom Lewand. Meanwhile, Caldwell also changed staff at about the same time, including the promotion of Jim Bob Cooter to offensive coordinator, which has resulted in an upgrade of Matthew Stafford's numbers. Caldwell is hardly out of the woods yet, but Mrs. Ford is said to be fond of him, and another win on Sunday at Chicago would get the Lions to 7-9, which looked very unlikely when the team was sitting at 1-7 at midseason. Caldwell's fate will still likely be determined by the new GM hire, supposedly coming soon. For that reason, Caldwell's status will likely not be determined until sometime after Black Monday. Caldwell's chances to survive: 40%.


Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis...Pagano was on the hot seat from the outset this season after rejecting a series of one-year contract extensions and betting on himself to earn a multi-year deal at the conclusion of the campaign. Though Pagano could not have predicted QB Andrew Luck's injury woes, the former Stanford star was not having a vintage season before he was KO'd, and Pagano's game management came under question during an ominously slow start to the campaign. Indy has hung in there with backup QBs Matt Hasselbeck and Charlie Whitehurst (and perhaps the just-signed Josh Freeman for this coming weekend), but if the Colts miss the playoffs, owner Jim Irsay is likely to make Pagano the scapegoat, even after playoff appearances his first three years on the job. Pagano's chances to survive: 25%.


Dan Campbell, Miami...Though one can never tell what owner Stephen Ross might do after granting Joe Philbin an ill-advised extra season at the end of 2014 and unwittingly setting in motion the sequence of events (including Philbin's dismissal after four games) that doomed 2015 in Miami, most sources believe interim HC Campbell, only 4-7 since taking over (and that 4-7 includes two impressive wins out of the chute), is going to be a definite Black Monday casualty. (Some believe Campbell could be invited to stay on staff, but he will almost certainly have his HC title removed.) Miami has been mentioned as one of the possible destinations for Sean Payton, should he leave the Saints. Another situation to watch with the Dolphins is with GM Dennis Hickey, who could be out along with Campbell, and there perhaps could be trouble for football operations director Mike Tannenbaum, though he seems the least likely of the three to be on the chopping block. Campbell's chances to survive: 5%.


Sean Payton, New Orleans...No coach potentially would disrupt the market as Payton, rumored for months to be receptive to a move of address. Payton still has two more years left on his deal with the Saints, so some sort of arrangement would have to be arrived at before he takes another job, but sources say Payton might believe the Saints' window has closed and that the contract situation of vet QB Drew Brees (who is slated to cause a 2016 cap hit of nearly $30 million, which includes his 2016 base plus past salary that was converted to a signing bonus that will count against the 2016 cap) makes a quick rebuild for New Orleans (which needs enormous upgrades defensively) extremely difficult. Payton has been said to be intrigued by the possibilities with the Chargers, but sources also say to keep an eye on the Colts, Dolphins, Titans, all with young QBs as possible high-grade students for Payton, or perhaps the Giants, who might be willing to make a splash, or reuniting with the Cowboys. Evidently, the Saints' recent subpar form over the past two seasons has not diminished the potential market for Payton, who has won just two playoff games since his 2009 team won the Super Bowl. Because Payton, should he leave New Orleans, will be almost certainly doing so on his own accord, we categorize his future prospects not as "survival," but rather chances to move. Payton's chances to move: 50%.


Tom Coughlin, NY Giants...Already on notice earlier this season from co-owner John Mara that a playoff berth was going to be expected, Coughlin's days at MetLife Stadium now seem numbered after a disturbing collapse in the second half of the campaign will keep the G-Men out of the playoffs for a fourth consecutive season. Many believe the 69-year-old Coughlin might have been due to retire at the end of this 2015 term regardless, and he could spare team brass the awkwardness of a dismissal by simply announcing his retirement. Though maybe not, as Coughlin has another year on his contract and might not want to walk away without some sort of compensation for 2016. Many believe there is also a good chance that GM Jerry Reese walks the plank as well. Whatever, it seems like all of the goodwill built up from the Giants' magic Super Bowl seasons of 2007 & '11 is about to expire. Coughlin's chances to survive: 15%.


Jeff Fisher, St. Louis...With the Rams making a belated run at .500 and with two victories over the defending NFC champ Seahawks, some believe Fisher might have bought himself another year after looking ready to walk the plank a month ago. Still, the team has not made much progress in Fisher's four seasons, and this appeared to be a year in which there was room to surge in the NFC West with the 49ers dropping off of the map and Seattle regressing. There is also the matter of the franchise's possible relocation to Los Angeles. Working in Fisher's favor might be that he oversaw a similar franchise shift when the Houston Oilers moved to Tennessee in 1997, plus the fact Fisher once starred as a defensive back in college at USC (where secondary mates included Ronnie Lott and Dennis Smith). Working against Fisher in the same scenario might be that owner Stan Kroenke would prefer to start fresh with a new coach and new regime if the franchise indeed relocates. Fisher's chances to survive: 60%.


Mike McCoy, San Diego...The Chargers have continued to play hard for McCoy, but the situation has nonetheless unraveled for the Bolts, sitting at an embarrassing 4-11 heading into the final week, even with QB Philip Rivers posting some of the best numbers of his career. A recent extension for GM Tom Telesco could be seen as a positive development since Telesco hired McCoy, but it's not like the team was offering McCoy the same deal. There is belief that McCoy has support internally, but with a move to Los Angeles potentially looming, anything is possible here, and the Spanos family has been unpredictable with these sorts of matters in the past. McCoy's chances to survive: 45%


Jim Tomsula, San Francisco...Tomsula cannot be solely held to blame for the downturn in 49er fortunes, a decline that can be traced to the club's ownership and front office. Yet Tomsula and his staff (which has come under criticism the entire year in the Bay Area) have not been able to get the team to punch above its weight, as the dramatic downgrade from a Super Bowl contender from as recently as two years ago has been almost breathtaking. The Niners opted to stay in-house and hired loyal solider Tomsula (who had succeeded Jim Harbaugh predecessor Mike Singletary for one game as interim HC at the end of the 2010 season) when they had chances to tab the likes of Adam Gase and Vic Fangio (both now on John Fox's Chicago staff), and some are not ruling out the front office revisiting those mistakes. It is also possible that owner Jed York says goodbye to general manager Trent Baalke instead of Tomsula. Tomsula's chances to survive: 50%.


Mike Mularkey, Tennessee...Mularkey is supposedly well-liked by the Titan organization (itself still in flux since the passing of owner Bud Adams a few years ago), but at 2-6 since relieving Ken Whisenhunt and badly beaten in several losses, there seems little chance that Mularkey sticks around. Of course, the sudden availability of Chip Kelly has the rumor mill whirring in Nashville, as the Titans appear to be a very possible landing spot for Kelly, who would get a chance to coach his old college QB from Oregon, Marcus Mariota, the quintessential fit for the Kelly style of offense that Chip never had in Philadelphia. Mularkey's chances to survive: 5%.


As always, stay tuned.

 

[CNOTES]

AFC Wild Card Notes
January 3, 2016


Saturday, January 9


AFC – Kansas City at Houston


Opening Line: Chiefs -3, 40 ½


Kansas City Road Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS
Houston Home Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS

Head-to-Head: These teams met in the opening week of the season as the Chiefs held off the Texans at NRG Stadium, 27-20 to cash as one-point favorites. Kansas City jumped out to a 27-9 halftime lead and never looked back as quarterback Alex Smith threw for 243 yards and three touchdowns, including two touchdown strikes to tight end Travis Kelce.


Playoff Notes: Houston returns to the playoffs for the first time since 2012 when the Texans were eliminated at New England in the divisional round, 41-28. The Texans have won both of their home playoff games in franchise history, beating Cincinnati in the Wild Card round in 2011 and 2012. Kansas City last appeared in the postseason in 2013, blowing a 28-point lead in a stunning 45-44 defeat at Indianapolis in the Wild Card round. The Chiefs haven’t won a playoff game since 1993, losing eight straight in the postseason, including three in a row on the road.


Total Notes: Kansas City posted an 8-7-1 record to the ‘over’ this season, including five ‘overs’ away from Arrowhead Stadium. Houston also put together an 8-7-1 ‘over’ mark, even though the Texans went 4-2 to the ‘under’ in the final six contests. The Texans cashed five ‘unders’ at NRG Stadium, while allowing three of their final five opponents at home to six points.






Sunday, January 10


AFC – Pittsburgh at Cincinnati


Opening Line: Steelers -2, 46 ½


Pittsburgh Road Record: 4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS
Cincinnati Home Record: 6-2 SU, 4-3-1 ATS


Head-to-Head: The road team won each of the two meetings this season, as the Steelers knocked off the Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium in Week 14 by a 33-20 count. Andy Dalton’s season ended that day as the Bengals’ quarterback broke his right thumb attempting to make a tackle following an interception. Steelers’ running back DeAngelo Williams scored two touchdowns in that victory, but he is listed as questionable for the Wild Card game with a sprained ankle.


Playoff Notes: The Bengals have lost four Wild Card games in each of the past four seasons, although three of those defeats came on the highway. Cincinnati lost to Pittsburgh in the 2005 Wild Card round at home, 31-17, as the Steelers went on to win the Super Bowl that season. The Bengals are mired in a long postseason drought, last capturing a playoff win back in 1990. The Steelers are back in the playoffs for the sixth time in Mike Tomlin’s coaching tenure, as Pittsburgh was tripped up at home by Baltimore last season 30-17 in the Wild Card round. Pittsburgh hasn’t won a playoff game since 2010, while losing its last road postseason contest at Denver in overtime in 2011.


Total Notes: Cincinnati cashed the ‘under’ nine times this season, including an 8-2 mark to the ‘under’ in the final 10 games. The Steelers began the season at 7-2 to the ‘under’ the first nine games, followed by a 4-2 run to the ‘over’ to finish the season. Pittsburgh compiled a 6-2 mark to the ‘under’ away from Heinz Field, while cashing the ‘over’ in five of the last seven visits to Cincinnati.

 

[CNOTES]

Carolina and Denver wrap up No. 1 seeds for playoffs
January 4, 2016


Carolina closed out its remarkable season by wrapping up home-field advantage in the NFC. Denver turned to Peyton Manning to take advantage of New England's slip-up in the AFC. And Rex Ryan made certain to continue the New York Jets' playoff drought.


Carolina and Denver wrapped up the No. 1 playoff seeds in each conference by winning at home on the final day of the regular season on Sunday. Carolina routed Tampa Bay 38-10, while Denver edged San Diego 27-20 to win the AFC West title.


''We find our edge playing in front of the home crowd,'' Carolina QB Cam Newton said. ''Everything here feels just right. We don't have travel to a hostile environment. This is our house - and it's hostile.''


New England will be the No. 2 seed in the AFC after losing at Miami, while Arizona will have the other bye in the NFC despite getting routed 36-6 by Seattle.


Denver's victory finally settled the AFC playoff picture. Cincinnati is the No. 3 seed and will host AFC North rival Pittsburgh in a wild-card game on Saturday night, while AFC South champion Houston is the No. 4 seed and will host Kansas City, winners of 10 straight games. The Texans and Chiefs will play the first game of the playoffs on Saturday afternoon.


New England will host the early game on Saturday, Jan. 16, with Denver hosting the lowest remaining AFC seed in the late game on Sunday, Jan. 17.


The NFC playoff picture was settled late Sunday night when Minnesota beat Green Bay 20-13 to win the NFC North. The Vikings will host Seattle in the early game Sunday, while Green Bay will travel to NFC East champion Washington for the late Sunday game. The Redskins closed the season with their fourth straight win on Sunday beating Dallas.


Arizona will host the late game on Saturday, Jan. 16, while the Panthers will host the lowest remaining seed in the NFC in the early game on Sunday, Jan. 17.


The highlight of the day was Ryan and the Buffalo Bills stopping the Jets from making the playoffs and gave the Steelers the final playoff spot in the AFC. The Bills beat the Jets 22-17, while Pittsburgh knocked off Cleveland 28-12, the only results that would have gotten the Steelers into the postseason. The Jets have not made the playoffs since 2010.


''I've got a lot of friends over there, and I want them to be successful, but not at my expense,'' Ryan said.


Ryan has plenty of friends in the Steel City now.


''A lot of thanks to coach Ryan and the rest of the Bills and everybody in Buffalo,'' Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger said. ''I know they're excited about 8-8 and we're excited they got us in.''


New England had a chance at home field in the AFC, but flopped in Miami getting beat 20-10. Denver struggled in the first half against San Diego before inserting Manning in place of Brock Osweiler at quarterback and holding on late for the seven-point victory.


''Wherever we play, we play,'' Patriots coach Bill Belichick said.


Houston also clinched the AFC South with its win over Jacksonville and will host Kansas City after the Chiefs beat Oakland for their 10th straight victory.


Houston avoided the headache of possibly having to look at eight different tiebreakers against the Colts by beating Jacksonville 30-6 to win the AFC South, making Indianapolis' victory over Tennessee moot. The Colts entered the day with the slimmest of chances to win the division, but a Texans loss was needed. Houston is the fourth seed.


''We are not happy with just winning the AFC South,'' Houston wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins said. ''There are bigger goals ahead of us.''


Seattle rebounded from last week's loss at home against St. Louis with one of its most dominant victories of the season, winning big at Arizona. The Seahawks led 30-6 at halftime and won for the sixth time in seven games. It'll be their second trip to Minnesota in about a month. Seattle beat the Vikings 38-7 on Dec. 6.


''These guys are confident that we can go wherever we got to go,'' Seattle coach Pete Carroll said.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Wildcard Weekend opens with three of four road teams favored


Kansas City is one of three of four road teams that are favored on Wildcard Weekend.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans


Wildcard weekend opens in Houston with the Texans hosting the red-hot Kansas City Chiefs, who have won 10 straight games and opened as three-point road favorites. The total opened at 41.


The Chiefs were 7-3 ATS during their 10 game win streak, but were just 1-3 ATS in their last four games. Meanwhile the Texans were 5-3 ATS at home and closed the season going 3-0 SU/ATS.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals


In the second AFC Wildcard matchup, Cincinnati hosts rival Pittsburgh and with Bengals' starting quarterback Andy Dalton's status uncertain, the Steelers have opened as 2.5-point favorites. The total opened at 46.5.


The AFC North foes split the two games this season with Cincy winning in Week 8 16-10 in a game that closed as a Pick and Pittsburgh taking the Week 14 33-20 as 1-point dogs. The games went 1-1 O/U.


Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings


Sunday's Wildcard action kicks off in Minnesota, with two of the leagues hottest teams clash when the Seahawks visit the Vikings.


While it was Minnesota who went into Lambeau Field to take the NFC North crown from the Packers, it is the Seahawks who open as 3.5-point road favorites.


Seattle heads into the game covering six of the last seven games, including a 36-6 thumping of division rival Arizona in Week 17, while Minny was one of the NFL's best bets this season at 13-3 ATS. Seattle did go into Minnesota and thrash the Vikings 38-7 as 2.5-point faves in Week 12.


Green Bay Packers at Washington


Washington, perhaps surprisingly, opens as the lone home favorite in the final game of Wildcard weekend, hitting the board at -1 against visiting Green Bay. The total opened at 46.


Washington enters the game winner of four straight games SU and ATS, going over in each game. Meanwhile the Packers head into the playoffs losers of two in a row SU/ATS, getting outscored 58-21 in the process.

 

[CNOTES]

Handicapping the Top Seeds
January 4, 2016




Rest vs. Rust
As the playoffs begin, those who earned the top two seeds in each conference have a key edge, as they get a bye the first week while watching the others duke it out. Sitting at home this past weekend were the Patriots, Broncos, Panthers and Cardinals.


Why is that significant?


A year ago the four bye teams were the Patriots, Broncos, Seahawks and Packers, going 3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS.


Green Bay missed covering by one-point while the Pats and Seahawks (31-17) rolled. Incidentally, Seattle beat Carolina as -13-point chalk.


Two years ago the top teams were the Broncos, Patriots, Seahawks and Panthers. The top AFC teams met in the title game, while Seattle went on to win the Super Bowl over Denver.


Gaining the bye is an advantage for teams to not only rest injured players, but to have two weeks to put together a game plan.


Since 1990, 38 first and second round seeds have filled 50 Super Bowl slots and the No. 1 and 2 seeds, rested after the bye, have gone 66-22 straight up in their first games in the divisional round.


The last four years the rested teams have gone 12-4 SU, though just 6-10 ATS. Last year Denver lost at home to the Colts, while the Patriots had a scare against Baltimore, 35-31 as -7 chalk.


The No. 1 seeded team in six of the last 11 years in the NFC (Eagles, Seahawks, Bears, Saints, Seahawks twice) wound up in the Super Bowl.


In the AFC it's been a different story. New England and Denver have made it in each of the last two years, but then ended a bit of a drought, with the only No. 1 seeds to make it were the 2003, '07, '11 Patriots, the '09 Colts.


Here's a look at the four teams that come into this weekend's playoff games rested with home field.


Patriots: Here they are again! Defending champion New England overcame numerous offensive injuries to cop the No. 2 seed, but stumbled down the stretch losing 4 of 6. Quarterback Tom Brady has top target tight end Rob Gronkowski, but the offense, unlike a year ago, has not been balanced, a pass-heavy attack with a weak offensive line and backup running backs forced to step in.


The defense has been the big story, letting their top two cornerbacks depart from their title team, Brandon Browner and Darrelle Revis, but Logan Ryan and Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler have been very good. This is also the best defensive front Bill Belichick has had in 10 years, with rookie nose tackle Malcolm Brown and newcomer Jaball Sheard joining a cast of talented, athletic linebackers who have been sack masters.


For totals players, the Pats are 37-18 'over' against the AFC.


Broncos: Changing of the guard? Aging QB Peyton Manning fell off the map with injuries and poor play, so Denver turned to 25-year-old Brock Osweiler with mixed results. The kid has been decent overall, but awful in the red zone. A terrible running game has been one reason, though new coach Gary Kubiak continues to force the run.


There are less concerns with this defense, however, dominant in the AFC from start to finish. It's a veteran unit that can shut down the run and the pass, plus is great at getting after the quarterback. Denver is 34-14 over the total against a team with a winning record. Was it just two years ago Manning had 51 TDs and only 10 picks? Seems more like a hundred years ago.


Panthers: Where did these guys come from? Carolina has had a losing record in three of the last four years, including winning a division title in 2014 despite ending with an 8-9-1 record. On the other hand, they've won three straight NFC South titles, going 12-5 in 2013, so it's not like they've been bad.


But 2015 has been quite a ride, with a dominant defense, minimal injuries, a hot young quarterback and an ability to win in the clutch. They were an underdog once at +7, rallying late to win at Seattle, 27-23, and had close calls with the Colts, Giants and Saints (twice).


The Panthers have been outstanding on offense and on an impressive 10-5-1 run 'over' the total. Carolina is also 18-7-1 ATS after a spread loss. They will be happy to play the no respect card all the way to Super Bowl, where they may even be a dog with a better record than any AFC team.


Cardinals: Arizona overachieved last season despite having to use four quarterbacks. They've been even better this season, as QB Carson Palmer has been outstanding and healthy, with an All-Star cast of WRs in Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Mike Floyd.


The passing attack will be fun to watch in January, while the defense has been rock solid all year against the run and the pass. Arizona is 20-8 ATS against the NFC and 74-36-1 'over' the total after getting 350+ yards the previous game.


This is a well coached team that has a shot to return to the Super Bowl after their near-miss in 2009-10.

 

[CNOTES]

NFC Wild Card Notes
January 4, 2016




Sunday, January 10


NFC – Seattle at Minnesota – 1:05 p.m. (NBC)


Opening Line: Seattle -3 ½, 40 ½


Seattle Road Record: 5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS
Minnesota Home Record: 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS




Head-to-Head: The Seahawks blasted the Vikings 38-7 as three-point road underdogs in Week 13. Seattle opened up a 21-0 halftime lead and outgained Minnesota 433 to 125 yards. Including this win, Seattle is 3-0 versus Minnesota with Russell Wilson at quarterback and all three wins were by double digits. Seattle swept the NFC North this season and is 8-2 in its last 10 versus the division while the Vikings are 2-4 in their last six games versus the NFC West.


Playoff Notes: Seattle is 6-2 in the playoffs with Wilson as quarterback and both losses occurred away from CenturyLink Field, the most recent taking placing in last year’s Super Bowl. The Vikings haven’t played in the postseason since 2012 and are 1-3 in their previous four trips. Minnesota is 1-1 in its last two home playoff games but those results took place indoors at the Metrodome.


Total Notes: The Seahawks watched the ‘under’ go 9-7 this season, which includes a 5-3 mark on the road. Seattle scored 35-plus in its final three road games, which includes the 38-point performance at Minnesota in early December. The Vikings were a great ‘under’ bet (11-4-1) all season. At home, the ‘under’ went 5-3 for Minnesota.






Sunday, January 10


NFC – Green Bay at Washington – 4:40 p.m. (FOX)


Opening Line: Washington -1, 45 ½


Green Bay Road Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS
Washington Home Record: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS


Head-to-Head: These teams haven’t met since the 2013 regular season and the Packers hammered the Redskins 38-20 as 7 ½-point home favorites. Including this win, Green Bay has gone 6-3 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in its past nine meetings versus Washington. The Packers have won five of their last seven games (4-3 ATS) versus the NFC East. Meanwhile the Redskins are 3-7 both SU and ATS in their last 10 versus the NFC North with two of the victories coming at home.


Playoff Notes: Since winning Super Bowl XLV over the Steelers in 2011, the Packers have gone 2-4 in the playoffs and that includes a 0-2 road record. That mark includes last year’s 28-22 collapse at Seattle. Washington returns to the postseason for the first time since the 2012 playoffs when it lost at home to the Seahawks, 24-14. The Redskins last playoff win came in 2005 when it defeated the Buccaneers 17-10 on the road and their last home postseason win occurred in 1999 by beating Detroit 27-13 at Jack Kent Cooke Stadium.


Total Notes: The Packers saw the ‘under’ go 11-5 this season but they produced a 4-4 total mark outside of Lambeau Field. The Redskins watched the ‘over’ go 9-7 but the ‘under’ produced a 5-3 record at FedEx Field.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL ATS


NFL > (103) SEATTLE@ (104) MINNESOTA | 2016-01-10 13:05:00 - 2016-01-10 13:05:00
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 29 Wins and 9 Losses for the last three seasons (+19.1 units)


NFL > (103) SEATTLE@ (104) MINNESOTA | 2016-01-10 13:05:00 - 2016-01-10 13:05:00
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in all games
The record is 13 Wins and 3 Losses for the this season (+9.7 units)


NFL > (105) PITTSBURGH@ (106) CINCINNATI | 2016-01-09 20:15:00 - 2016-01-09 20:15:00
Play ON CINCINNATI against the spread in All games in all lined games
The record is 12 Wins and 3 Losses for the this season (+8.7 units)


NFL > (105) PITTSBURGH@ (106) CINCINNATI | 2016-01-09 20:15:00 - 2016-01-09 20:15:00
Play ON CINCINNATI against the spread in all games
The record is 12 Wins and 3 Losses for the this season (+8.7 units)


----------------------


NFL MONEYLINE


NFL > (103) SEATTLE@ (104) MINNESOTA | 2016-01-10 13:05:00 - 2016-01-10 13:05:00
Play ON SEATTLE using money line in All games off a division game
The record is 10 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+9.9 units)


NFL > (105) PITTSBURGH@ (106) CINCINNATI | 2016-01-09 20:15:00 - 2016-01-09 20:15:00
Play ON PITTSBURGH using money line in All games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 14 Wins and 3 Losses for the last three seasons (+12.6 units)


NFL > (105) PITTSBURGH@ (106) CINCINNATI | 2016-01-09 20:15:00 - 2016-01-09 20:15:00
Play ON PITTSBURGH using money line in All games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
The record is 10 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.2 units)


NFL > (103) SEATTLE@ (104) MINNESOTA | 2016-01-10 13:05:00 - 2016-01-10 13:05:00
Play ON SEATTLE using money line in Road games off a division game
The record is 9 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+9 units)

NFL > (101) KANSAS CITY@ (102) HOUSTON | 2016-01-09 16:35:00 - 2016-01-09 16:35:00
Play ON KANSAS CITY using money line in All games against conference opponents
The record is 10 Wins and 2 Losses for the this season (+7.9 units)


---------------------


NFL TOTALS


NFL > (101) KANSAS CITY@ (102) HOUSTON | 2016-01-09 16:35:00 - 2016-01-09 16:35:00
Play UNDER HOUSTON on the totalin All games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
The record is 0 Overs and 8 Unders for the last three seasons (+8 units)


NFL > (103) SEATTLE@ (104) MINNESOTA | 2016-01-10 13:05:00 - 2016-01-10 13:05:00
Play UNDER MINNESOTA on the totalin All games after 2 or more consecutive wins
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the last two seasons (+7 units)


NFL > (103) SEATTLE@ (104) MINNESOTA | 2016-01-10 13:05:00 - 2016-01-10 13:05:00
Play UNDER SEATTLE on the totalin All games in all games where the first half total is between 18 and 21
The record is 2 Overs and 11 Unders for the last two seasons (+8.8 units)


NFL > (105) PITTSBURGH@ (106) CINCINNATI | 2016-01-09 20:15:00 - 2016-01-09 20:15:00
Play UNDER CINCINNATI on the totalin All games as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line
The record is 2 Overs and 11 Unders for the last two seasons (+8.8 units)


NFL > (105) PITTSBURGH@ (106) CINCINNATI | 2016-01-09 20:15:00 - 2016-01-09 20:15:00
Play UNDER PITTSBURGH on the totalin Road games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 1 Overs and 9 Unders for the last two seasons (+7.9 units)

 

[CNOTES]

Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch "full go"
January 6, 2016


RENTON, Wash. (AP) Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch is ''full go'' for returning to practice after being away from the team since undergoing abdominal surgery in late November.


Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said Lynch went through walkthrough on Wednesday morning and was expected to be a full participant in practice later Wednesday. Lynch has not practiced since Week 9 before the Seahawks faced Arizona. Lynch had surgery on Nov. 25 and has been working out with his personal trainers in the Bay Area the past few weeks.


If he makes it through the week, Lynch would be the presumptive starter for Sunday's NFC wild-card game against Minnesota.


Carroll also said strong safety Kam Chancellor (pelvis/tailbone), guard J.R. Sweezy (concussion), tackle Russell Okung (calf) and tight end Luke Willson (concussion) are all on track to play this week after missing last week's game with injuries.

 

[CNOTES]

Chiefs' Justin Houston plans to play
January 6, 2016


KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston confirmed Wednesday that he plans to play in Saturday's wild-card game in Houston, his first game since hyperextending his knee in November.


The All-Pro pass rusher did light work last Friday but was not active for Sunday's regular-season finale against Cleveland. He's been practicing this week with a brace on his knee.


Houston acknowledged that ''I definitely got some rust to knock off.'' But his return should be a boon for the Chiefs, who have had to make do without their best pass rusher for the past five games.


Fellow pass rusher Tamba Hali is also expected to play. He returned last week from a broken thumb but only played 14 snaps against the Browns.

 

[CNOTES]

LeBron's group cuts ties with Manziel
January 6, 2016


CLEVELAND (AP) LeBron James has dropped Johnny Manziel as a business client.


A spokesman for James said the NBA star and has ended his marketing agreement with Manziel, the embattled Browns quarterback whose behavior has him on very shaky ground with his team and Cleveland fans.


James and his associates at LRMR - long-time friends Maverick Carter, Rich Paul and Randy Mims - will no longer be working with Manziel after mutually agreeing to end their partnership. LRMR has been handling endorsement deals for Manziel since he got drafted into the NFL.


Cleveland.com first reported the end of James' ties to Manziel, who missed Cleveland's season finale Sunday after he was spotted partying in Las Vegas over the weekend. Browns owner Jimmy Haslam said the 23-year-old Manziel missed a medical treatment as part of a mandatory concussion protocol he's following. Manziel was back at the team's facility Monday for exit meetings, but he did not speak with the media.


Carter told Cleveland.com that the decision to end the business relationship was due partly so Manziel could focus on his personal life.


''I will continue to support and advise him as a friend,'' Carter said. ''However, because Johnny needs to focus on personal growth, the next phase of his career and because LRMR continues to expand beyond marketing, we made the mutual decision that it was best to terminate our business relationship.''


Earlier on Wednesday in Washington, D.C., James expressed concern ''individually'' for Manziel, who spent 10 weeks during the offseason in a Pennsylvania rehab facility specializing in alcohol and substance abuse.


James didn't know the details of Manziel's latest escapades, but believes the QB would be better served focusing on other things.


''I've heard a little bit of it and it's just a distraction for not only himself but for everyone that's around him, including family, people that represent him, the people around him,'' James said. ''He'll figure it out at some point - we all hope.''


James has referred to Manziel as ''family'' in the past. When Manziel was a rookie, James brought his sons to one of Cleveland's training camp practices.


Manziel has attended numerous Cavaliers home games in Cleveland, often sitting courtside next to Carter or Paul.

 

[CNOTES]

Steelers WR Bryant accepts challenge from Roethlisberger
January 6, 2016


PITTSBURGH (AP) Ben Roethlisberger wasn't being cruel or unnecessarily harsh. The Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback had just seen enough - or not enough, to be accurate - out of wide receiver Martavis Bryant that he felt it was time to speak up.


Two weeks and two largely listless performances on the eve of the playoffs isn't what Roethlisberger wanted to see out of the remarkably talented if still occasionally inconsistent Bryant. So Roethlisberger issued what he called a ''challenge'' during his radio show on Tuesday, saying it was time for Bryant to ''toughen up.''


There was no edge in Roethlisberger's voice as he repeated it in so many words on Wednesday as the Steelers (10-6) prepare for a trip to Cincinnati on Saturday night in the wild-card round.


''I just felt like we need him,'' Roethlisberger said. ''I love that guy like a little brother and just wanted him to know we needed him to step up.''


Something that - when it happens - gives Pittsburgh arguably the best trio of receivers in the NFL in Bryant, All-Pro Antonio Brown and Markus Wheaton. Brown is the record-setting road-runner and perennial Pro Bowler. Wheaton is the versatile everyman and Bryant is perhaps the most athletically gifted of the bunch. His 6-foot-3 frame and seemingly effortless speed make him a matchup nightmare for opponents.


They do, anyway, when Bryant is engaged and on the field. He spent most of last Sunday's win over Cleveland on the sideline with what coach Mike Tomlin called a minor neck injury but could also have doubled as a momentary benching after Bryant - who was slowed all week by an illness - was beat out by Browns defensive back Jordan Poyer for a Roethlisberger pass in the first quarter.


''Oftentimes, when young guys don't get an opportunity to practice, they lack a little detail in play,'' Tomlin said.


Details that Bryant understands he should have ironed out nearing the end of his occasionally brilliant second season.


''I'm still balling,'' Bryant said. ''You have your ups and you have your downs. It's about how you bounce back. I'm going to be ready to go.''


Good thing, because the Steelers need him with the running game almost certainly limited. DeAngelo Williams sat out practice on Wednesday to undergo treatment on his injured right foot, leaving the running game in the largely inexperienced hands of Fitzgerald Toussaint and Jordan Todman.


To win in Cincinnati for the 15th time in 18 tries, Pittsburgh will have to do it on Roethlisberger's right arm, one that has developed a fondness for chucking it deep to Bryant and letting Bryant - lovingly referred to as an ''alien'' by some - be Bryant.


Bryant was a supernova when thrust into the starting lineup in Week 7 as a rookie. He scored eight times in 10 games, including a 94-yard sprint against the Bengals that helped kickstart Pittsburgh's run to the AFC North title. He missed the first five games of this season - four while serving a suspension for violating the league's substance abuse policy and another after getting nicked up when he returned to practice - only to make another dazzling entrance. He caught a pair of second-half touchdowns from Landry Jones to ignite a rally against Arizona on Oct. 18 and went over 100 yards in romps over Cleveland and Indianapolis.


All of which made his lethargic play of late all the more frustrating to Roethlisberger, who communicated frequently with Bryant during the receiver's suspension.


Roethlisberger called Bryant after calling him out over the air, a conversation Bryant insisted would remain between he and his quarterback. Not that it matters. Consider the message received.


''What he said was good for me,'' Bryant said. ''I needed that. I'm glad he did it. And like I said, I'll be ready to go come Saturday.''


Not that he has much of a choice.


''Anytime it's coming from (Roethlisberger), you understand he's only saying it because it's in your best interest,'' linebacker Arthur Moats said. ''He understands what kind of player Martavis is and what he's capable of doing. When he says something like that, it's nothing against him personally. It's `We need you out there so make sure you bring it.''

 

[CNOTES]

AP Sports Analysis: The case for Brock Osweiler
January 6, 2016


ENGLEWOOD, Colo. (AP) The Denver Broncos should start Brock Osweiler for the playoffs.


Their best chance to go on a Super Bowl run is with the man coach Gary Kubiak benched Sunday, even though he acknowledged Osweiler had done nothing to deserve the demotion.


Peyton Manning came in and sparked Denver to a 27-20 win over the Chargers that secured the top seed in the AFC playoffs. He should return to a relief role, ready at the first sign of trouble to start warming up again.


And Osweiler should return to the starting lineup for the eighth consecutive time when the Broncos (12-4) take the field on Jan. 17 for a divisional round matchup against the Chiefs, Texans or Steelers.


Although the maestro was at his magnificent best in putting the Broncos in the right plays at the right time Sunday, Manning was just 5 of 9 for 69 yards - and this against a team that was as stunned to see him trot onto the field as the millions of fans who were watching on TV.


Just wait for a team that's been waiting for Manning. An opponent that's been preparing for the five-time MVP who turns 40 six weeks after Super Bowl 50. That team will be ready for the QB who nearly led the league in interceptions - 17 - despite missing nearly half the season with a left foot injury.


Manning had the worst season of his spectacular career, setting career lows in nearly every category. Osweiler proved his mettle as a calm, cool quarterback who was unflappable in the face of dropped passes, fumbles and errant kicks - although he admittedly needs to work on escaping edge rushers and eluding the blitz.


Manning might have the playoff pedigree, but he also has an NFL record nine first-round exits in the postseason. Plus, he's not as nimble as he once was - which wasn't very snappy to begin with.


Osweiler, on the other hand, can make any throw or play in Kubiak's playbook: bootlegs, sprint-outs, rollouts, play-action passes.


And the fourth-year pro is no novice, either.


''Brock's had literally the best seat in the house to be able to learn,'' said Joe Theismann.


Osweiler's teammates rallied around him for two months. They'll be eager to atone for their mistakes after their fumbling and bumbling led to Osweiler's benching Sunday, which was akin to a hockey coach pulling his goaltender because everyone around him stunk.


Sure, Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson combined for a season-best 212 yards rushing against the Chargers, but Manning completed just one pass longer than 15 yards.


In the playoffs, opponents will bring up their safeties, knowing Manning can't beat them deep or outside the numbers. That will clog up the running lanes and bog down this offense like it was bottled-necked over the first half of the season.


With Osweiler, Kubiak has his full menu of plays available, not just an appetizer of shotgun snaps and quick throws.


Osweiler was better than Manning in every meaningful statistical category save for sacks.


It wasn't until the Broncos trailed 22-0 against the Chiefs on Nov. 15 that Kubiak pulled his five-time MVP. Kubiak said there's no way he'd wait that long this time if his starter struggles again.


''The great thing about it is it's taken everybody on our team to get to this point - everybody - and it's going to take everybody we have the rest of the way,'' Kubiak said.


Go with Osweiler. Have Manning ready in relief.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Wildcard Weekend opens with three of four road teams favored


Kansas City is one of three of four road teams that are favored on Wildcard Weekend.


Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans


Wildcard weekend opens in Houston with the Texans hosting the red-hot Kansas City Chiefs, who have won 10 straight games and opened as three-point road favorites. The total opened at 41.


The Chiefs were 7-3 ATS during their 10 game win streak, but were just 1-3 ATS in their last four games. Meanwhile the Texans were 5-3 ATS at home and closed the season going 3-0 SU/ATS.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals


In the second AFC Wildcard matchup, Cincinnati hosts rival Pittsburgh and with Bengals' starting quarterback Andy Dalton's status uncertain, the Steelers have opened as 2.5-point favorites. The total opened at 46.5.


The AFC North foes split the two games this season with Cincy winning in Week 8 16-10 in a game that closed as a Pick and Pittsburgh taking the Week 14 33-20 as 1-point dogs. The games went 1-1 O/U.


Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings


Sunday's Wildcard action kicks off in Minnesota, with two of the leagues hottest teams clash when the Seahawks visit the Vikings.


While it was Minnesota who went into Lambeau Field to take the NFC North crown from the Packers, it is the Seahawks who open as 3.5-point road favorites.


Seattle heads into the game covering six of the last seven games, including a 36-6 thumping of division rival Arizona in Week 17, while Minny was one of the NFL's best bets this season at 13-3 ATS. Seattle did go into Minnesota and thrash the Vikings 38-7 as 2.5-point faves in Week 12.


Green Bay Packers at Washington


Washington, perhaps surprisingly, opens as the lone home favorite in the final game of Wildcard weekend, hitting the board at -1 against visiting Green Bay. The total opened at 46.


Washington enters the game winner of four straight games SU and ATS, going over in each game. Meanwhile the Packers head into the playoffs losers of two in a row SU/ATS, getting outscored 58-21 in the process.

 

[CNOTES]

Football bettors must react quickly to these NFL Wild Card odds


Are oddsmakers making a mistake by settling such a low total for the Seahawks and Vikings' Wild Card showdown?


Spread to bet now


Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (+3)


The Texans are a home dog, as well they should be. Kansas City is - on paper anyway - the most dangerous Wild Card team in the field. The Chiefs come in with 10 wins in a row (cautionary note: they were just 1-3 ATS in the final four games of the regular season) and still somewhat under the radar.


Most importantly, over the second half of the season, the Chiefs dominated teams when they go on the road: 20-point win at Baltimore, 14-point win at Oakland, 30-point win at San Diego, 16-point win at Denver.


Early betting is heavily on the Chiefs in this one, so if you can grab Kansas City and have to lay only the field goal, it could be a smart move. Books are cautious about adding that extra half point, but may have no choice in this one.


Spread to wait on


Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5)


Reputation could be one factor as bettors have jumped hard on the Steelers in this one in early wagering. The Bengals always seem to find a way to lose playoff games and the foundation of the team came crumbling down in mid-December when franchise QB Andy Dalton suffering a thumb fracture trying to make a tackle. A.J. McCarron is 1-1 as the replacement, and McCarron brings oodles of confidence and zero experience into the biggest game of his pro life.


Home field might not be of much help in this one, because the road team won both games this season: the Steelers winning that Dalton/thumb game only a few weeks ago, 33-20. The Steelers scored a lot of points over the final half of the regular season, averaging almost 32 points per game in their final eight games. That production is appealing to public bettors.


Total to watch


Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings (42)


What? 42? Yes, Pete Carroll gets all weird when the Seahawks get near the goal line, but Seahawks have been crushing it lately. Books must be looking at the game these teams played in Minnesota in early December (Seattle, 38-7) and figuring that coaches get a little more conservative in the playoffs.


But the Vikings aren’t the same team they were a month ago, and they are averaging almost 33 points a game over the last three. Point-loving football bettors have to be banging the Over pretty hard on this one.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Dunkel

Wildcard Round

Kansas City @ Houston

Game 101-102
January 9, 2016 @ 4:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
138.081
Houston
138.868
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 3 1/2
40
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+3 1/2); Over

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

Game 105-106
January 9, 2016 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
138.920
Cincinnati
134.488
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 4 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 2 1/2
46
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-2 1/2); Over


Seattle @ Minnesota

Game 103-104
January 10, 2016 @ 1:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
143.337
Minnesota
140.771
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 2 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 6
42
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(+6); Under

Green Bay @ Washington

Game 107-108
January 10, 2016 @ 4:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
138.256
Washington
136.880
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 1 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 1 1/2
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(+1 1/2); Under




NFL
Long Sheet

Saturday, January 9

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KANSAS CITY (11 - 5) at HOUSTON (9 - 7) - 1/9/2016, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in playoff games since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 2-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (10 - 6) at CINCINNATI (12 - 4) - 1/9/2016, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games this season.
CINCINNATI is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
CINCINNATI is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
CINCINNATI is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
PITTSBURGH is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 68-94 ATS (-35.4 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in January games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 4-2 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-2 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, January 10

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SEATTLE (10 - 6) at MINNESOTA (11 - 5) - 1/10/2016, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
MINNESOTA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.
SEATTLE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (10 - 6) at WASHINGTON (9 - 7) - 1/10/2016, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 171-122 ATS (+36.8 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 64-40 ATS (+20.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 54-87 ATS (-41.7 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 79-107 ATS (-38.7 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 79-107 ATS (-38.7 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 79-107 ATS (-38.7 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL
Short Sheet

Wildcard Round

Saturday - Jan, 9

Kansas City at Houston, 4:35 ET
Kansas City: 8-0 ATS off 2 or more consecutive unders
Houston: 16-4 OVER as a home underdog of 3 points or less

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, 8:15 ET
Pittsburgh: 21-8 OVER in playoff games
Cincinnati: 13-4 ATS as an underdog


Sunday - Jan, 10

Seattle at Minnesota, 1:05 ET
Seattle: 4-15 ATS off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a division rival
Minnesota: 9-1 ATS off a division game

Green Bay at Washington, 4:40 ET
Green Bay: 9-2 ATS off a division game
Washington: 37-64 ATS as a home favorite




NFL

Wildcard Round

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Trend Report
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Saturday, January 9

4:35 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. HOUSTON
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

8:15 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CINCINNATI
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh


Sunday, January 10

1:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. MINNESOTA
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Seattle

4:40 PM
GREEN BAY vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Green Bay's last 13 games
Green Bay is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games

 

[CNOTES]

Wild Card Trends
January 7, 2016




Don’t look now but the 2015 NFL season is in the rear view mirror and with it the start of the Wild Card playoff games begins this Saturday.


Let’s take a look at some of the best, and worst, trends surrounding this weekend’s card. Here’s a brief capsule of the teams and noteworthy trends…


The Good, the Bad and the Ugly




Kansas City at Houston


Good: Texans are 6-2 ATS as home dogs in games with both teams off a win


Bad: Chiefs coach Andy Reid is 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS vs playoff foes off BB wins


Ugly: Chiefs are 2-8 SU and 0-10 ATS in last ten Wild Card Round games




Pittsburgh at Cincinnati


Good: Steelers 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS L10 non Super Bowl postseason games


Bad: Wild Card Round road favorites are 6-15-1 ATS


Ugly: Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis is 0-6 SU/ATS in playoff games




Seattle at Minnesota


Good: Seattle QB Russell Wilson is 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in the postseason


Bad: Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll is 1-4 SU as a playoff visitor


Ugly: Super Bowl losers are 0-4-2 ATS away off a win in Wild Card rounds




Green Bay at Washington


Good: Washington is 6-2 SU/ATS in Wild Card Round games


Bad: Green Bay is 1-4 SU/ATS vs. foes with a winning record this season


Ugly: Teams who won 4 fewer games last season are 1-12 SU/ATS as Wild Cards


ATS Diabetes


Like kids in a candy store, NFL Wild Card teams playing off huge regular season wins tend to crash-and-burn in these playoff openers.


That’s because Wild Card teams, off a season-ending SU double-digit win as an underdog win, are just 5-15 SU and 4-15-1 ATS.


The Redskins and the Seahawks could be up against it this weekend.


Stat of the Week


The straight-up winner in NFL Wild Card Round playoff games is 111-12-4 ATS since 1980.

 

[CNOTES]

Manning named starter for playoffs
January 7, 2016


ENGLEWOOD, Colo. (AP) Peyton Manning has won back his starting job after recovering from a left foot injury and rescuing the Denver Broncos.


Brock Osweiler is back on the bench.


Coach Gary Kubiak informed his quarterbacks of his QB decision and then his team Thursday morning when players returned from a three-day furlough.


Manning missed seven starts with a torn plantar fascia. He returned to action Sunday when he relieved Osweiler in the second half and led the Broncos to a 27-20 win over San Diego that secured the AFC's top seed.


That marked Manning's first game as a backup since his freshman year at Tennessee 21 years ago.


Manning went 7-2 as Denver's starter, although he struggled all season with his foot injury, which affected his throwing motion and led to right shoulder and rib injuries as well.


It also forced the Broncos to put Manning in the pistol or shotgun on most snaps. But on Sunday, he was under center 40 percent of the time, which did wonders for their ground game.


Manning went just 5 of 9 for 69 yards passing Sunday with no TDs and no interceptions.


For the season, he threw a career-low nine TD passes and his 17 interceptions nearly led the league even though he missed almost half the season. Osweiler threw 10 TD passes and had six interceptions.


Soon a free agent, Osweiler may very well have proven he's the future for Denver, going 5-2 with both losses coming down to dropped passes in crunch time or he could have been 7-0, maybe rendering Manning a backup for the playoffs.


Osweiler displayed the athleticism, acumen, accuracy and arm strength to run Kubiak's offense, but his inexperience also showed.


He failed to check out of a cornerback blitz Sunday in which he was sacked and stripped of the football, one of five turnovers following his 72-yard touchdown toss to Demaryius Thomas 31 seconds into the game.


Manning got the same look a couple of times and checked into run plays away from the pressure. His superior recognition and line calls helped the Broncos gain a season-best 210 yards rushing.


Manning also drubs Osweiler in the experience department: Osweiler has never taken a snap in the playoffs. Manning is 11-13 in the playoffs over his 18-year career. That includes an NFL-record nine first-game exits, three Super Bowls and one ring.


Osweiler has said he'll prepare the same no matter who's the starter.


Kubiak surely won't hesitate to go back to him if he has to.


On Nov. 15, Kubiak waited until Manning had thrown four interceptions and compiled a career-worst 0.0 passer rating before pulling him with Denver down 22-0 to the Chiefs. The Broncos lost 29-13.


Kubiak said afterward that he made a mistake in going with Manning that day. He named Osweiler his starter the next morning while Manning went to see a foot specialist in North Carolina. He returned in a hard cast and walking boot he wore for 10 days before beginning a long and arduous rehab program.


After a setback a couple of weeks ago, Manning suited up Sunday for the first time since the injury but Osweiler kept his starting job.


Kubiak said Osweiler didn't do anything to deserve a demotion but he felt the team needed a jolt.


With Denver in danger of losing to the Chargers and slipping into the wild-card round and a road game at red-hot Kansas City this weekend, Manning entered midway through the third quarter.


His return energized the stadium and the Broncos as he led Denver on four scoring drives in five possessions.

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - WC Saturday


January 8, 2016


Wild Card Sunday


The ‘under’ produced an 11-5 record in the final week of the regular season and most of the results were clear-cut. The Sunday Night finale between the Packers and Vikings leaned to the low side, which helped the ‘under’ go 30-21 (59%) in primetime games this season. Overall, the ‘under’ went 130-122-4 (52%) in the 256 games played during the 17-week season.


Wild Card Trends


Looking at the below results, you can see that the opening week of the playoffs has leaned to the low side. The ‘under’ has gone 9-2-1 (82%) in the Wild Card round the past three postseasons and going back to the 2004-05 playoffs, the ‘under’ is 27-16-1 (63%) overall.


FIRST ROUND TOTAL HISTORY (2004-2014)


2004 (Under 3-1) 2005 (Under 3-1)


St. Louis 27 Seattle 20 - UNDER 50.5 Washington 17 Tampa Bay 10 - UNDER 37


N.Y. Jets 20 San Diego 17 - UNDER 43 New England 28 Jacksonville - UNDER 37


Indianapolis 49 Denver 24 - OVER 56 Carolina 23 N.Y. Giants 0 - UNDER 43.5


Minnesota 31 Green Bay 17 - UNDER 49.5 Pittsburgh 31 Cincinnati 17 - OVER 46.5
2006 (Under 3-1) 2007 (Total 2-2)


Indianapolis 23 Kansas City 8 - UNDER 50.5 Seattle 35 Washington 14 - OVER 39


Seattle 21 Dallas 20 - UNDER 48 Jacksonville 31 Pittsburgh 29 - OVER 41


New England 37 N.Y. Jets 16 - OVER 38.5 N.Y. Giants 24 Tampa Bay 14 - UNDER 39.5


Philadelphia 23 N.Y. Giants - UNDER 45.5 San Diego 17 Tennessee 6 - UNDER 39
2008 (Under 3-1) 2009 (Over 4-0)


Arizona 30 Atlanta 24 - OVER 51.5 N.Y. Jets 24 Cincinnati 14 - OVER 34


San Diego 23 Indianapolis 17 - UNDER 49 Dallas 34 Philadelphia 14 - OVER 45.5


Baltimore 27 Miami 9 - UNDER 38 Baltimore 33 New England 14 - OVER 43.5


Philadelphia 26 Minnesota 14 - UNDER 41 Arizona 51 Green Bay 45 - OVER 48
2010 (Under 3-1) 2011 (Over 3-1)


Seattle 41 New Orleans 36 - OVER 45.5 Cincinnati 10 Houston 31 - OVER 38


N.Y. Jets 17 Indianapolis 16 - UNDER 44 Detroit 28 New Orleans 45 - OVER 59.5


Baltimore 30 Kansas City 7 - UNDER 41 Atlanta 2 N.Y. Giants 24 - UNDER 47


Green Bay 21 Philadelphia 16 - UNDER 46.5


Pittsburgh 23 Denver 29 - OVER 34


2012 (Under 4-0) 2013 (Under 3-1)


Cincinnati 13 Houston 19 - UNDER 42.5 Kansas City 44 Indianapolis 45 - OVER 48


Minnesota 10 Green Bay 24 - UNDER 44 New Orleans 26 Philadelphia 24 - UNDER 55.5


Indianapolis 9 Baltimore 24 - UNDER 47.5 San Diego 27 Cincinnati 10 - UNDER 47.5


Seattle 24 Washington 14 - UNDER 45 San Francisco 23 Green Bay 20 - UNDER 46.5
2014 (Under 2-1-1) 2015


Carolina 27 Arizona 16 - OVER 38 Kansas City at Houston


Baltimore 30 Pittsburgh 17 - PUSH 47 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati


Indianapolis 26 Cincinnati 10 - UNDER 47 Seattle at Minnesota


Dallas 24 Detroit 20 - UNDER 48.5 Green Bay at Washington


Saturday Jan. 9


As per past playoffs, I’ll break down every matchup and offer up my total handicap and prediction on all the matchups. It was a down season for the Total Talk bankroll ($1,220) but we have 11 games left to save some face. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!


Kansas City at Houston


This total opened 40 ½ and the number has held steady, with a couple shops dropping to 40. Based on the analytics and current form, it’s hard to make a case for the ‘over’ in this game. The Chiefs (17.9 points per game) and Texans (19.6 PPG) are both ranked in the Top 10 in scoring defense and the units have been lights out down the stretch.


Houston allowed 22 combined points in its last three games albeit against the weak trio from the AFC South. The Chiefs’ Alex Smith isn’t a top-tier level quarterback but he’s definitely a step up in class from Hasselbeck, Mettenberger and Bortles. Kansas City closed the season with 10 straight wins and only two teams scored 20 or more points against the club during the streak. Ten wins is nothing to dismiss but you could argue that the defense wasn’t really tested and the same can be said for the rest of the AFC playoff teams, which is why the field looks wide open.


When these teams met in Week 1, the Chiefs opened up a 27-9 lead at halftime and the ‘over’ (40.5) connected early in the fourth quarter. Kansas City scored on five of seven first-half possessions but was aided with two short tracks due to Houston turnovers and those resulted in touchdowns. If you take away the mistakes made by the Texans, the Chiefs only have 13 points and they were blanked in the second-half.


It should be noted that Kansas City has been better offensively on the road (29 PPG) than at home (20.6 PPG) and it posted a 45-spot against Detroit in a home game which was played at London. Including this result, the ‘over’ is 3-1-1 in its last five games outside of Arrowhead. Also, when you have low totals you have to be weary of quick scores and the Chiefs were tied with Arizona this season for the most defensive touchdowns with six.


The Chiefs are 0-1 in the playoffs under head coach Andy Reid and it’s hard to forget their 45-44 collapse to the Colts in the playoffs two years ago. For those wondering, Chiefs QB Smith is 1-2 in the postseason and he’s thrown nine touchdowns and one interception. This will be the first playoff game for both Houston QB Brian Hoyer and head coach Bill O’Brien. The Texans are 2-2 all-time in the playoffs and both wins came at home while holding opponents to 13 and 10 points.


Fearless Prediction: My wager on this game is the Texans Team Total Under (18 ½) on Saturday. Houston’s offense is very vanilla and the injury to left tackle Duane Brown (leg) is a huge loss, plus their second-best WR Nate Washington (hip) is banged up. Houston scored 36 offensive touchdowns this season and only seven came on the ground. Kansas City should load up the box and be able to stifle them in this spot.


Pittsburgh at Cincinnati


Saturday’s nightcap isn’t an easy handicap and the total is bouncing between 45 ½ and 46 ½ points, depending where you shop.


Pittsburgh enters this game with the fourth best scoring offense (26.4 PPG) in the league and that number jumps up to 29.9 PPG when QB Ben Roethlisberger has played a full game. The offense has sputtered twice with Big Ben this season, once versus Cincinnati (10-16) in Week 8 and recently in Week 5 at Baltimore (17-20) in Week 16. In those losses, he was picked off five times.


So which Big Ben shows up on Saturday? In the Steelers 33-20 road win at Cincinnati, he was very efficient and that shouldn’t be surprising. Since Roethlisberger showed up in Western Pennsylvania in 2004, the Steelers are 11-2 at the Bengals and the offense has averaged 26.3 PPG during this span.


Cincinnati is going to have A.J. McCarron under center since Andy Dalton went down with an injury, coincidentally in the second meeting to the Steelers. The understudy has been decent, completing 66% of his passes and has six touchdowns and only two interceptions, both picks coming against Pittsburgh.


We all know Dalton is winless (0-4) in the playoffs so maybe McCarron is the answer. For those of you who believe Pittsburgh is this great defensive team, think again. The Steelers were the third worst against the pass this season and if the Bengals can protect A.J. on Saturday, he should be able to dice up Pittsburgh.


Another factor I look at in this game is coaching and Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin has some great total trends heading into Saturday. Tomlin, a Super Bowl winner, is 5-4 overall in the playoffs and the Steelers have averaged 26 PPG. The ‘over’ has gone 8-0-1 during this span.


While Tomlin and the Steelers attack has been strong in the postseason, the same can’t be said for Marvin Lewis and the Bengals. Lewis is 0-6 in the playoffs and the offense is only averaging 12.3 PPG in those losses.


Despite Pittsburgh’s offensive juggernaut, the Steelers leaned to the ‘under’ (10-6) this season and that included a 6-2 mark away from Heinz Field. Cincinnati saw the ‘under’ go 5-3 at home.


Fearless Prediction: There’s expected to a solid chance of precipitation on Saturday night in Cincinnati but the winds aren’t going to be high. Based on the above angles and the Steelers playing their third straight game on the road (system), I’m leaning to the high side and playing Over 45 ½ for the game and Bengals Team Total Over (21 ½) as well.

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - WC Sunday


January 8, 2016




Sunday’s NFC Wild Card matchups will have bettors choosing between experience and youth as a pair of Super Bowl champions face teams with both quarterbacks and coaches making their postseason debuts.


As mentioned in Saturday’s installment, the ‘under’ has been a great bet in the Wild Card recently. The number stands at 9-2-1 (82%) to the low side the last three postseasons but make a not that we could see a total in the thirties this weekend with the Seahawks-Vikings game on the cusp of 40.


The last three Wild Card games that had totals close in the thirties all went ‘over’ the number but they were very tight outcomes.


Sunday Jan. 10


For the playoffs, I’m going to break down each day and offer up my quick handicap and prediction for all the matchups. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!


Seattle at Minnesota


Oddsmakers sent out an opener of 42 ½ on this game and that number has dropped as low as 39 ½ at some shops. Inclement weather is expected in Minneapolis on Sunday afternoon and the latest forecasts have wind chills between 15-20 degrees below zero.


Since the Vikings started playing at TCF Bank Stadium (University of Minnesota), they only had two games that were in the same neighborhood of this week’s temperatures. They did well too, blasting the Panthers 31-13 last season and just a few weeks ago, they hammered the Giants 49-17 in similar conditions.


It’s hard to imagine the Vikings putting up a crooked number on Sunday, especially against a Seattle team that has the best scoring defense (17.3 points per game) in the league. What’s more impressive is the Seahawks were better defensively on the road (15.2 PPG) this season than at home.


Minnesota is stout defensively too, holding teams to 18.9 PPG but similar to Seattle, it’s been better on the road (17.8 PPG) than at home (20 PPG).


The Seahawks have leaned slightly to the ‘under’ (9-7) this season and the ‘under’ is on a 4-0 run the last four weeks yet the offense has averaged 32 PPG during the second-half of the season.


During this span, the ‘Hawks have averaged 36.3 in three road games, which includes a 38-7 win at Minnesota in Week 12. Seattle dominated on both sides of the ball, building a 35-0 lead and outgaining the Vikings by nearly 300 total yards (423-125) in the victory.


QB Russell Wilson has been lights out the last seven games, completing over 70 percent of his passes while racking up 24 touchdowns and only one interception. Seattle is expected to have running back Marshawn Lynch back this weekend and his presence might actually slow the game down. He only had 20 or more carries in two games this season and while they won those games, they both easily went ‘under’ the number (20-3, 13-12).


Since getting torched by Wilson and company, the Vikings closed the season with a 3-1 record and the defense allowed an average of 17.5 PPG. Minnesota has watched the ‘under’ go 11-4-1 overall but three of those ‘over’ tickets came at home.


Prior to last year’s playoff run, the Seahawks had watched the ‘under’ go 3-2 with Wilson at QB and Pete Carroll as head coach. Last postseason, Seattle was a perfect 3-0 to the ‘over’ and a couple of those tickets were lucky to cash, most notably its playoff opener at home versus Green Bay.


In Seattle’s recent postseason run with the pair, the ‘Hawks have been away from home four times and they’ve gone 2-2 while averaging 29.8 PPG, which has helped the ‘over’ go 3-1.


Including the result in December, the ‘Hawks have won and covered three straight against the Vikings and the ‘over’ has cashed in all three games.


Fearless Prediction: Based on the recent history for the ‘Hawks in the playoffs and the big game experience from Wilson, I’m leaning to Seattle Team Total Over (22) in this spot.


Green Bay at Washington


The total on this game opened at 46 and has dropped to 45 as of Friday morning. If your handicapping leans heavily on current form, you’re probably wondering why the early money has come in the ‘under’ and Green Bay in this game.


The Packers closed the season with a pair of humbling losses and were outscored 58-21 in those setbacks. Meanwhile, Washington finished off the last quarter of the season with four consecutive wins, covers and ‘over’ tickets.


It’s apparent that the form has been tossed out the window and bettors aren’t buying Washington and when you look at its resume this season, you can see the reasoning. The Redskins are in the playoffs despite not facing a team with a winning record and when they did go up against a playoff team, they surrendered 27 and 44 points to New England Carolina respectively.


Defensively, Washington is the worst scoring unit (23.7 PPG) amongst the 12 playoff teams and during its recent winning streak, the unit hasn’t held anybody to 21 or less.


However, right behind them is Green Bay’s defense at 20.2 PPG and that unit was torched when it stepped up in class too. The Packers went 5-3 on the road this season and the three losses all came to playoff teams, who put up 29, 37 and 38 points. Technically, the Redskins are a playoff team but certainly not in the same class with the Broncos, Panthers and Cardinals.


Since the Redskins are now listed as short home ‘dogs for this game, it’s hard for me to ignore the fact they’ve won and covered five straight in this role and the offense has averaged 29.8 PPG. I’m not sure if head coach Jay Gruden is preaching the disrespect angle but something is working for them.


In 11 playoff games, the Packers have averaged 28.3 PPG with Aaron Rodgers at QB. In seven games away from Lambeau Field, the numbers are even better (31.3 PPG). Despite those strong offensive efforts, the ‘over’ has only managed to produce a 6-5 mark.


These teams met in the 2013 regular season and Green Bay pasted Washington 38-20 as a 7 ½-point home favorite and the ‘over’ (48) cashed early in the fourth quarter as Rodgers passed for 480 yards and 4 TDs.


Fearless Prediction: I expect both teams to produce four to five scores in this game and that should get both of them into the twenties. Even though the opening line is going the other way, I’m buying the game Over 45 and I’m also taking Washington Team Total Over (22 ½). Based on the great offensive numbers from the Redskins at home and the suspect defensive play from the Packers at home, Washington should jump this number on Sunday.