Cnotes Preakness Need To Know And Selections

[CNOTES]

At the Gate - Saturday


May 16, 2015


Preakness Day is here and it’s time to find out if American Pharoah can wheel back on two weeks rest and keep his Triple Crown hopes alive.

His two main foes are Derby runner up and third place finisher Firing Line and Dortmund, and they also are coming back on short rest.

Trainer Bob Baffert is perfect with his three previous Derby winners in the Preakness, taking the Preakness with Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998) and War Emblem (2002). Baffert also won with Point Given (2001) and Look At Lucky (2010), who both came up short in Louisville.

That is five winners coming back off two weeks rest and it is tough to go against Baffert not winning with one of his two contenders.

American Pharoah took the early betting action in advanced wagering on Friday at Pimlico, bet down to 3-5 from his 4-5 morning line. Dortmund did not take much action, closing at odds of 8-1.

There was only $39,754 in the win pool as of 7:00 ET last night. Firing Line was bet down to 5-2 from his 4-1 morning line.

The 14-race marathon card gets underway at 10:30am ET, with the final race on the card set to go off 8 ½ hours later. Post time for the Preakness Stakes is 6:18 ET and will be broadcast live on NBC.

Here is a look at the latest Preakness Stakes betting odds as of Friday night via Sportsbook.ag:
American Pharoah 2-3
Firing Line 3-1
Dortmund 5-1
Danzig Moon 20-1
Mr Z 20-1
Bodhisattva 25-1
Divining Rod 25-1
Tale of Verve 50-1

To purchase my Pimlico Report for Preakness Day click here.

Here is today’s opening race from Pimlico to get the day off to a good start:

PIM Race 1 Md Sp Wt (10:30 ET)
5 Sunshine Life 5-1
8 Finnegan 6-5
4 La Nina 3-1
1 Don's Girl / 1a Shoot Craps 8-1

Analysis: Sunshine Life tracked the early pace from the rail and finished evenly in a third place finish last out on the main track at the Big A. The $22,000 Keeneland purchase should take to turf. She is by Daaher out of a Danehill mare that has dropped four winners including a pair of turf winners The Ward barn is 27% winners with second out maidens.

Finnegan is also sent out by Ward and will be the favorite if she runs. She is also entered in a race at Presque Isle on Sunday. She finished up well in a runner up finish in her debut at Keeneland on the main track. She is out of the stakes winner Untouched Talent ($243,550) who has dropped a couple of dirt winners, top earner Grade 1 winner Bodemeister ($1.3 million).

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 5,8 / 1,4,5,8
TRI: 5,8 / 1,4,5,8 / 1,4,5,7,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Pimlico:

PIM Race 11 The Very One (4:44 ET)
2 Ageless 5-2
5 Shrinking Violet 2-1
4 Joya Real 8-1
6 Jewel of a Cat 6-1

Analysis: Ageless is the defending champ of this race, winning last year at the 5-2 betting favorite. Last year she came into the race off a victory in the Giant's Causeway and this year she ran second in that race but was coming back off a five-month layoff and it was over yielding footing. The winner was Katie's Eyes, who came back to win the Unbridled Sidney in her next outing at Churchill Downs on May 9. The mare was beaten just 3/4 of a length two back in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1) taking on the boys, earning a career top speed fig in that effort. She should move forward in her second start off the bench and likely gets better ground.

Shrinking Violet won the Monrovia (G2) last out at Santa Anita going 6 1/2 on the downhill turf course for the Wesley Ward barn. She has now won 6 of her 9 starts on turf in her career. The cut back to five furlongs should not pose a problem and she is proven at the shorter distance. She has worked sharply since her last outing for a barn that is 19% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff.

Joya Real makes her first start since last fall where she was beaten just a head in the Turf Amazon. She won 4 of 6 last year with a second and a third. She has run well fresh and her best puts her right in the mix here and the 8-1 morning line looks generous.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 2,5 / 2,4,5,6
TRI: 2,5 / 2,4,5,6 / 2,4,5,6,9

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Pimlico
R1: #1 Don’s Girl / 1a Shoot Craps 8-1
R2: #5 Fish Whistler 8-1
R3: #4 Svindahl 12-1
R3: #11 Lava 10-1
R5: #6 Souper Knight 8-1
R6: #12 Justlookatmenow 10-1
R6: #13 Smart N Smokin 8-1
R7: #3 Outlash 10-1
R8: #8 Battlefront 12-1
R8: #2 Soup d’ Coupe 12-1
R9: #11 Sistas Stroll 8-1
R11: #4 Joya Real 8-1
R12: #4 Aripeka 8-1
R13: #4 Danzig Moon 15-1

Good luck today!

 

[CNOTES]

Preakness Stakes Breakdown


May 15, 2015




The second leg of the "Triple Crown" is set and the field is ready for the 140th running of the Preakness Stakes!


Preakness Stakes Odds


2015 BREAKDOWN


PP - Horse ML Odds Jockey (Preakness Record) Trainer (Preakness Record)


1 – American Pharoah 4/5 Victor Espinoza (2-6) Bob Baffert (5-15)
Notes: He couldn’t have worked out a better trip in the Kentucky Derby if he scripted it and directed it. With that said he found himself in a tussle for the first time in his career through the lane and came out on top of not one, but two battle tested colts in Firing Line and his stablemate Dortmund. Things are a little different now as he goes from his cushy outside post to the dreaded rail but it shouldn’t be a problem for him and his abundant speed like it was for a horse like Orb in 2013 who got stuck down along the inside. In fact, a horse like American Pharoah should, in theory, benefit from this inside draw. I hope Espinoza just goes to the top and makes every pole a winning one. Singling him in all of my multi-race exotics and putting him on top of all my Preakness plays.


2 - Dortmund 7/2 Martin Garcia (1-3) Bob Baffert (5-15)
Notes: In 1995, a horse named Oliver’s Twist saved D. Wayne Lukas from the embarrassment of costing himself a Triple Crown winner when he beat Derby/eventual Belmont winner Thunder Gulch by a neck for place as the Lukas trained Timber Country got the money. Its 20 years later and Bob Baffert could quite possibly be in the same situation. Many feel he’s the only thing standing in American Pharoah’s way for a chance at immortality. I think he has the ability to beat him but don’t think he will. I soured on him a tad after the Derby because if you’d have told me an hour before the race that he’d be a length in front through six furlongs in 1:11 1/5 in Louisville I’d have bet every dollar to my name on him and he just couldn’t finish the job. The way things are set up right now, if he was going to beat American Pharoah, it was last time out. Using him underneath in all of my exotic plays.


3 – Mr. Z 20/1 Corey Nakatani (0-4) D. Wayne Lukas (6-40)
Notes: Lukas put him in a van and started driving him to Baltimore even though Ahmed Zayat, his owner at the time said he wasn’t running in here. Lukas said he was running here and not in the Sir Barton on the undercard like Zayat wanted. So, Zayat sold him to another Lukas client, Calumet Farm and he’s running here. The question now is does he gun to the top and make things difficult on American Pharoah or does he try to come from off the pace and grab a small piece of the pie. I say the game plan is to run and gun and because of that I want no part of him.


4 – Danzig Moon 15/1 Julien Leparoux (0-6) Mark Casse (0-1)
Notes: Like many coming out of the Derby, if you watch the replay, it looks like he ran on a treadmill the entire way around. He didn’t move. The comment “evenly” is what I would have said about him and a dozen others in Louisville. He’s still eligible for an entry level allowance race and yet he’s getting all sorts of buzz. Frankly, I’ve never been a fan or understood why people like him so much. He’ll likely take some money as well, as people will be trying to get him in the number to split the chalks. You can if you want to but he’s not really for me.


5 – Tale of Verve 30/1 Joel Rosario (0-3) Dallas Stewart (0-3)
Notes: Eleventh hour Derby entrant got stuck on the AE list and was excluded from the field because El Kabeir and International Star scratched well after scratch time on Friday. It may have been a blessing in disguise sine he would have had to break from the outside post and the fast pace he would have needed never developed. Like Danzig Moon, he’s still eligible for an entry level allowance race but he did break his maiden at this very distance. He may be the biggest price on the morning line but I doubt he’ll be when the wagering closes. I don’t think he can win but I will use him on the bottom of my trifectas and superfectas.


6 – Bodhisattva 20/1 Trevor McCarthy (Debut) Jose Corrales (Debut)
Notes: Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the obligatory, yearly local hope for the Preakness. All but three of his 11 starts have come in the state of Maryland, all three of his victories have, including the Federico Tesio last out over this course and he’s trained and will be ridden by local connections. Though he went gate-to-wire last out I think he’s better from off of the pace which shouldn’t be an issue since the speed horses in here are simply faster than he is. I don’t think the trip will be the problem I just don’t think he’s this good. But with that said a small share isn’t out of the question so I will use him on the bottom end of my trifectas and superfectas.


7 – Divining Rod 12/1 Javier Castellano (1-3) Arnaud Delacour (Debut)
Notes: Here’s a price horse I can sink my teeth into. Worked out a wonderful trip in his easy Lexington tally last out when he beat Donworth, a horse I LOVE in the Sir Barton and think the world of. Like Bodhisattva, I think he’ll be right behind the first bunch and should work out another great trip under a guy who always seems to be in the right place at the right time in Castellano who’s riding him for the first time. He’s owned by Lael Stables, the owners of the ill-fated 2006 Derby winner Barbaro who broke down in the Preakness that year. This would be an emotional, bittersweet score to say the least, but one they would surely accept. If there is a complete pace collapse he can win but I don’t foresee that happening. Using him underneath American Pharoah in all of my exotic wagers.


8 – Firing Line 4/1 Gary Stevens (3-17) Simon Callaghan (Debut)
Notes: So, you’ve probably hear a lot of people talking about how you need to get one of the favorites from the Derby out of this number to make any money. He is my candidate. Don’t get me wrong….I’m not tossing him because that’s the only way to make money. Dealing in absolutes like that gets you in trouble in this game. I simply don’t like him in this spot. His trainer has tried selling us on the fact that he needed six weeks between his preps because he thrives on the time off and now wants me to bet him back in two weeks off of the best effort of his career? That doesn’t make any sense to me. Combine that with the fact that he did all of the dirty work in the Derby chasing Dortmund, he didn’t change leads through the stretch and he’s likely going to be the second choice in the wagering and he’s an easy toss for me.

 

[CNOTES]

Top 3 Preakness horses go for gallop


May 15, 2015


BALTIMORE (AP) - It was a calm Friday morning for all eight Preakness contenders at Pimlico Race Course.


Everyone went for a jog the day before the second leg of the Triple Crown.


Firing Line, the Kentucky Derby runner-up, took a 1 1/4 mile tour of the track on another clear, cool morning.


''I really liked the way he galloped,'' trainer Simon Callaghan said. ''He's training equally as well as he was going into the Derby. We're seeing all the same things, so I couldn't be happier.''


Trainer Bob Baffert's dynamic duo of Derby winner American Pharoah and third-place finisher Dortmund were also out for some exercise.


Baffert said both horses would again use ear plugs to muffle the sound and tension generated by a Preakness crowd expected to top 100,000.


American Pharoah always uses the plugs.


''He's a very gentle horse but his ears are so sensitive,'' Baffert said.


At first, Baffert simply stuffed American Pharoah's ears with cotton. He later upgraded to plugs designed for show horses.


Dortmund wears the plugs during paddock saddling, and in the post parade. Once he's in the starting gate, jockey Martin Garcia pulls a string to remove them.


---


PASSING THE TEST: American Pharoah faces a big test in the Preakness. If he passes, it's on to the Belmont Stakes in three weeks for shot at the Triple Crown.


Justin Zayat, the son of owner Ahmed Zayat and the family's racing manager, just finished his own exams, completing a degree in economics at NYU.


With school over, Zayat made his first visit to Pimlico to check on American Pharoah. Even though he was tied up with studies, Zayat helped negotiate the sale of Preakness contender Mr. Z, named for his father, to Calumet Farm on Wednesday.


''It's amazing,'' Zayat said. ''The last two weeks have just been so surreal. Everything has been going by so quickly. It's been hectic. But to be here with American Pharoah, I wouldn't trade places with anyone.''


Zayat will have company later Friday. His father, returning from a trip to Europe and the Middle East, is due in town to cheer on the 4-5 Preakness favorite.


''He has the talent to do it,'' Justin Zayat said. ''We just have to pray for a clean break and a clean trip.''


---


BIRTHDAY BOY: Trevor McCarthy celebrates his 21st birthday Saturday with a special present: his first Triple Crown mount on Bodhisattva.


''It's quite exciting,'' McCarthy said. ''I would rather it be this than go out and drink, or go to the casino or something like that. It's a pretty cool experience.''


McCarthy has been a cool customer in a brief career that started late in 2012. He was the leading rider the last two years in Maryland, booting home 263 winners in 2014 to rank seventh in the nation. His mounts earned over $8 million last season, ranking 20th in the country.


''I've been watching this kid since he started,'' Jose Corrales, Bodhisattva's owner and trainer said. ''He's a complete rider.''


McCarthy is following family tradition. He is the son of former rider Mike McCarthy, a longtime leading jockey at Delaware Park. In a 20-year career with almost 3,000 victories, Mike McCarthy never got the call to ride in a Triple Crown race.


''He just always wanted this for me,'' Trevor McCarthy said. ''He taught me everything, gave me everything.''


This will be his third straight ride on Bodhisattva, a 20-1 shot who won the Tesio Stakes here last month.


---


PREAKNESS FACTS: Not surprisingly, 95 of the previous Preakness winners were bred in Kentucky, the birthplace of six of the eight runners this year. Danzig Moon will try to become only the second Canadian, and third foreign bred, to take the Preakness. Bodhisattva hails from California - just like California Chrome, last year's winner. ... Deputed Testamony (1983) was the last Maryland-bred winner. ... Eddie Arcaro is the leading jockey with six Preakness wins. ... Gary Stevens, a three-time Preakness winner, will set the record for Preakness mounts aboard Firing Line. Stevens and Pat Day currently hold the mark at 17. ... D. Wayne Lukas can tie R.W. Walden's record for training victories when he saddles Mr. Z. Walden posted seven wins from 1875-1888. ... Bob Baffert has two shots, American Pharoah and Dortmund, to tie Lukas for second-place ... Calumet Farm, the leading owner with eight wins, sneaked into the Preakness with the purchase of Mr. Z on Wednesday. ... The Preakness attendance record of 123,469 was set last year.

 

[CNOTES]

Preakness names evolve from all


May 15, 2015


LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) - Coming up with a clever name for a thoroughbred can be a challenge - and not just creatively.


While parents simply put their choice of names for their child on a birth certificate and are done, registering a thoroughbred foal is not so easy.


Owners can submit up to six choices in order of preference to The Jockey Club in the registration process. Similar to choosing an online password, the name can't exceed 18 characters, must be available and comply with a lengthy list of guidelines.


And that's before it receives the blessing of The Jockey Club, which last year approved an estimated 26,000 of 36,500 names submitted.


The odds seem to be in an owner's favor, but that doesn't make it easy.


''The reason we have such quality control is to make things very clear to the layman, to the stakeholder, to a trainer, to a bettor,'' The Jockey Club manager of registration services Andrew Chesser said. ''You want to avoid confusion, especially when you're talking about two particular horses that can be racing at the same time and breeding at the same time.''


Chesser couldn't explain the 18-character limit other than it being the worldwide standard and added, ''18 has just always seemed to work.''


Some horses' names feature a combination of its sire (father) and dam (mother) or the damsire (mom's father). Others such as 2012 Kentucky Derby and Preakness runner-up Bodemeister are more creative: that colt was named after Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert's son, Bode.


''You try to come up with a name you just might like,'' said Dallas Stewart, who trains Tale of Verve. ''It's OK to be a little crazy with them. After all, it's your horse.''


Owners can submit a name for free until Feb. 1 of the second year after the horse is born, then there's a $100 charge. Names can also be reserved.


The Jockey Club's list of exclusions is long and detailed, and Triple Crown winners or any series race are permanently protected from duplication.


That's just fine by Secretariat owner Penny Chenery, who proudly said of the legendary 1973 Triple Crown champion, ''There's only one Secretariat.''


A look at the backstories of the names of several entrants in Saturday's 140th Preakness:


AMERICAN PHAROAH: You might notice that his surname is a misspelling of the Egyptian ruler Pharaoh, a role made famous onscreen by Yul Brynner in ''The Ten Commandments.'' Owner Ahmed Zayat, a native of Egypt who wanted a horse reflective of his culture, originally blamed The Jockey Club for the typo. The name was misspelled when it was submitted by a woman who won an online contest run by the family, and the Zayats didn't catch it. No worries, since the horse has made a name for himself with his Derby victory.


DANZIG MOON: Norman Casse, who helps his father, Mark, in training the horse, laughs as he explains this name as ''pretty straightforward.'' His first name derives from his damsire, Danzig, his last name from sire Malibu Moon. Whether heavy metal band Danzig inspired the name is unclear. But its use has generated a social media cult following. Boston radio station 98.5 The Sports Hub recently played a game asking, ''Is it a race horse or a bad local band?''


BODHISATTVA: The Buddhist term means some who is enlightened and delays reaching Nirvana in order to save others. It'll be interesting to see if the California-bred colt is that selfless with his fellow horses if he's leading in the stretch. Extra credit for pronouncing the name correctly on the first try: (boh-dee-SAHT'-vah).


TALE OF VERVE: Another easy one. Owner Charles Fipke likes to pass horses' names down the line. This one derives from sire Tale of Ekati and dam Verve, whose damsire is 1990 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Unbridled. This 30-1 longshot could write his own tale by earning his first graded stakes win in the Preakness.


MR. Z: Zayat's children submitted the name in honor of their father, who sold the horse this week to Calumet Farm. Another son of Malibu Moon and trained by Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, the chestnut colt looks to rebound from his 13th-place Derby finish but is a 20-1 longshot in the Preakness.

 

[CNOTES]

American Pharoah gallops at Pimlico


May 14, 2015


BALTIMORE (AP) - Kentucky Derby winner American Pharoah and stablemate Dortmund stretched their legs for the first time at Pimlico Race Course on Thursday in preparation for Saturday's Preakness.


The colts trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert were flown in from Louisville, Kentucky, to Baltimore on Wednesday afternoon.


Both went out for a morning gallop on a pleasantly cool and sunny morning.


Dortmund, third in the Derby, was the first onto the track shortly after 8:30 a.m. The massive colt looked fresh and fit as he focused on a tour of the oval.


American Pharoah followed right behind, gliding over the surface in his usual nimble fashion.


''This cold air really puts these horses on their toes,'' said Baffert, a five-time Preakness winner. ''They were happy to get out. They just marched up to the racetrack, eager to get to work. You don't want to lead them up there like a borrowed dog. They looked healthy, bright, in top condition.''


If that good form holds, it could be a very predictable Preakness.


American Pharoah is the 4-5 favorite, with Dortmund the 7-2 second choice. They will follow the same morning routine Friday. No timed workouts are planned, only gallops to keep both horses sharp.


They will take walks around the paddock to get comfortable with the unfamiliar track.


''My job is to get the saddle on them so they don't get stirred up,'' Baffert said. ''We can only fine tune them. We only have a couple of days.''


He compared the wait until race time as keeping the horses in ''bubble wrap. The week before the Derby was smooth. This week has been smooth for them.''


---


NERVE VERVE: It takes some nerve to run Tale of Verve in the Preakness.


The colt has never been in a stakes race. He had never won any kind of race until beating fellow maidens at Keeneland in late April.


In an ambitious move, owner Charles Fipke and trainer Dallas Stewart entered Tale of Verve in the Kentucky Derby after that initial victory. He wound up on the also-eligible list, waiting in vain for a timely scratch to put him in the race.


When that didn't happen, the focus shifted to the Preakness.


While he lacks experience at this level, Tale of Verve should not have a problem with the distance. The late-running colt's victory was 1 3/16 miles, the same as the Preakness.


''The longer the better for him,'' Stewart said.


As for the step up in class to the Preakness, Stewart does not see it as insurmountable.


''There were a lot of horses that ran bad races in the Derby, and it wasn't like they were flying home with the last quarter in 26 (seconds),'' the former assistant to D. Wayne Lukas said.


Joel Rosario, second in last year's Preakness aboard Ride On Curlin, rides the 30-1 shot.


---


LOOKING WET: The Baltimore weather forecast is unsettled for Saturday, calling for a chance of showers with thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. The chance of precipitation is 40 percent, according to the National Weather Service.


A wet day could end the Preakness streak of fast tracks dating to 2004. Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide won the 2003 Preakness by 9 3/4 lengths over a track rated ''good.''


Rain or shine, it should be a warm day with temperatures topping out in the mid-80s.

 

[CNOTES]

American Pharoah favored to set up Triple


May 15, 2015


BALTIMORE (AP) - American Pharoah won the Kentucky Derby, yet didn't look unbeatable, as he had in his previous races. His trainer says he struggled. His jockey went to the whip about 30 times to urge him on in the stretch. His owner says the Derby wasn't even close to his best effort.


And now it's time for the Preakness, where a victory Saturday would set up American Pharoah for a Triple Crown chance at the Belmont Stakes in three weeks. It also would give trainer Bob Baffert an unprecedented fourth Triple try.


Is American Pharoah up to the task?


''That horse didn't really get his A game together in the Kentucky Derby, and he still won,'' marveled Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, who trains long shot Mr. Z, on Friday morning outside the stakes barn at Pimlico Race Course. ''That's a scary thought.''


American Pharoah, owned by Ahmed Zayat is the 4-5 morning-line favorite in an eight-horse field, and will be ridden by Victor Espinoza. Stablemate Dortmund, third in the Derby, is the second choice at 7-2, and Derby runner-up Firing Line is 4-1.


Dortmund also is trained by Baffert, setting up the possibility of a trainer spoiling his own Triple Crown chance. It happened 20 years ago to Lukas, but Baffert says of Dortmund: ''He deserves another chance.''


Zayat, a three-time Derby runner-up before winning two weeks ago, is confident American Pharoah will prove again he's the horse of a lifetime.


''I don't believe the Derby showed the sheer brilliance of American Pharoah,'' Zayat said. ''I hoping you will see the real AP again on Saturday. He is giving me all signs that he is ready again.''


His colt isn't the only one ready to go.


Dortmund, with Martin Garcia aboard, is looking to avenge his first loss after six wins; Firing Line ran second to Dortmund twice, then fell a length short of American Pharoah in the Derby.


''Hopefully we can turn the tables on American Pharaoh, the same as we did Dortmund,'' said Gary Stevens, Firing Line's Hall of Fame jockey and a three-time Preakness winner.


Divining Rod comes into the 1 3-16th-mile Preakness after winning the Lexington Stakes and skipping the Derby. The colt is owned by Gretchen and Roy Jackson's Lael Stables, and marks the Jacksons' first entry in the Preakness since 2006, when Derby winner Barbaro shattered a leg at the start of the race and was euthanized in January 2007.


''We've put all that behind us and can't wait to see what Divining Rod can do,'' Roy Jackson said this week. ''We hope he'll be competitive, but he deserves to be in the race and given a chance.''


The field, from the rail out, is: American Pharoah, Dortmund, Mr. Z, Danzig Moon, Tale of Verve, Bodhisattva, Diving Rod and Firing Line. Post time is 6:18 p.m. EDT (NBC).


The post-position draw did not go Baffert's way, with his horses getting the two inside posts.


''I can't believe I drew the 1-2 of all draws,'' he said.


History says he has reason for concern. Tabasco Cat, in 1994, was the last Preakness winner out of the No. 1 post. Snow Chief, in 1986, was the last to win from the No. 2 post.


The start could turn into the most critical part of the race. A stumble out of the gate likely ends any chance at victory. The same with jostling for position into the first turn. The top three choices are expected to be on or near the lead, but Espinoza needs to make sure American Pharoah doesn't get pinned on the inside and forced to drop back.


Then again, most of the horses in the field have a similar get-to-the-front style, and if the pace is too fast early on, it could set the stage for a closer like Danzig Moon to pull an upset.


If American Pharoah wins, it would be the 14th time since Affirmed swept the Derby, Preakness and Belmont in 1978 that a Triple Crown would be on the line in the Belmont.


Baffert won the Derby and Preakness with Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998 and War Emblem in 2002. All came up short in the Belmont.


The forecast for Saturday calls for temperatures in the 80s, with a 40 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms.

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Saturday's Den: DDLohaus handicaps the Preakness


We had a nice score for the Kentucky Derby as the race top three finishers proved to be much the best. Our long shot play didn't run poorly.


I was a bit surprised at the performance of Carpe Diem and he may get another look for the Belmont as his trainer has chosen to skip the middle jewel of the Triple Crown.


As I type this the weather for tomorrow at Pimlico is hot with a chance of thunderstorms; in other words, a bit unknown.


The top three finishers come right back for the Preakness and really do appear to be the best three in the race. Wet weather wont impact Kentucky Derby winner American Pharoah and I don't think he ran his best in last. Granted it was good enough to win, but I am not convinced the runners he beat are all that good. American Pharaoh will be a bit tighter and should come right back here and win the race.


Dortmund and Firing Line are very solid contenders and showed they are legit and will make the Derby winner earn the victory. As far as wagering goes, let's face it, there is no value in this race.


I will find myself rooting for American Pharoah so we have a shot at a triple crown in three weeks BUT I will make a wager that will try and get a return and play against the masses. A friend of mine, Hot Dog Paul once said " the big money is going against the crowd".. I am playing with a little house money so I'll take a bit of a flyer....


The Picks:
1. American Pharoah
2. Firing Line
3. Dortmund
** Longshot Player: Bodhisattva: local horse that ran a nice one in last; may get brave**


The Bets:
$20Ex American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund/Bodhisattva
$15Ex Bodhisattva/American Pharoah, Dortmund, Firing Line
$5WPS Bodhisattva


Total Bets: $120.00