Betting Recap - Week 6
October 19, 2015
Overall Notes
NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 4 RESULTS
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 7-6
Against the Spread 3-10
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 7-6
Against the Spread 7-6
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 9-3-1
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Panthers (+7, +260 ML) at Seahawks, 27-23
Steelers (+6, +205 ML) vs. Cardinals, 25-13
The largest favorite to cover
Jets (-7.5) vs. Redskins, 34-20
Kardiac Kids
-- The Cleveland Browns might not be winning games on a regular basis just yet, but they're sure giving their fans a lot of heart failure with the close games. For the second straight week they went to overtime, losing this time against the Denver Broncos. Each of their past three games have been decided by three points, going 1-2 SU and 3-0 ATS during the span. In addition, the 'over' has connected in all six of their games, making the Browns a favorite for bettors in 2015.
Mmm, mmm Good
-- The Miami Dolphins turned to interim coach Dan Campbell to 'soup' up the offense and turn things around after dismissing Joe Philbin during the bye. So far, so good. The Dolphins manhandled the Tennessee Titans in Nashville, 38-10, re-discovering its run game in the process. Miami's 38-point outburst was by far its largest of the season, with a previous best of 20 in a loss in Week 2 at Jacksonville. It was also the team's first cover since Week 1. The team's win might be overvalued a bit, however, as they opened as a five-point favorite against the Houston Texans in Week 7.
AFC vs. NFC
-- There were five intraconference tilts in Week 6, with the NFC edging the AFC 3-2 SU, and the AFC going 3-2 ATS. Home teams in these games went a perfect 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS, with the underdog cashing in three of the games. The more impressive was the win by the Pittsburgh Steelers, roughing up the visiting Arizona Cardinals 25-13 as six-point 'dogs at home. You always have to be mindful of those west-coast teams traversing three time zones going east, especially for a 1pm kickoff. It usually doesn't end well for the travelers. The 'under' went 3-2 in the five AFC vs. NFC games, and in the past three weeks that number is 8-5 for the 'under'. For the season the under is 15-8-1 (65.2%) in intraconference matchups.
Total Recall
-- Once again the game with the lowest total on the board (39.5) went 'over' rather easily. The Redskins-Jets game saw a combined 54 total points scored. The next lowest total (41) also easily went 'over', as Panthers-Seahawks had a total of 50 points. With or without overtime, Broncos-Browns (41.5) was also in the bag, as was Bengals-Bills (42.5). In other words, don't be dissuaded by those low total numbers. Those games have a good chance of hitting 'over', as was the case Sunday.
-- There was nothing deflated about the Patriots-Colts (53.5) total, as it was the highest on the board in Week 6. In fact, the two highest totals on the board were the Pats-Colts and Falcons-Saints (52) were both primetime battles. While the SNF game was a 'bad beat' for the line (see below), the 'over' easily connected. The Thursday night NFC South battle was a push. The Monday night game between the Giants-Eagles features a 51-point total.
-- Last weekend the primetime games had a 2-1 'over' mark, and this week it sits at 1-0-1 with Monday to go. So far this season the over is still just 7-10-1 (41.2%) through 18 games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.
Injury Report
-- Bills WR Sammy Watkins (ankle) was able to score a touchdwn against the unbeaten Bengals, but he suffered an ankle injury in the end zone while securing the ball.
-- Broncos WR Emmanuel Sanders (shoulder) left the overtime win at Cleveland on the final play of regulation, suffering a shoulder injury. DL Shane Ray (knee) also left with what is believed to be a rather serious knee injury.
-- Cardinals TE Darren Fells (shoulder) left the Week 6 loss at Pittsburgh due to a shoulder ailment.
-- Chargers WR Keenan Allen (hip) was en route to a record-setting day before leaving the Week 6 loss at Green Bay due to a hip ailment. He was one reception short of the single-game franchise record before departing.
-- Chiefs WR Jeremy Maclin (concussion) checked out of the Week 6 at Minnesota early due to a concussion.
-- Giants WR Victor Cruz (knee) continues to sit as he makes his way back from knee and calf injuries.
-- Jaguars WR Allen Robinson (leg) suffered a bruised leg in the Week 6 loss to Houston, and he was on crutches after the game.
-- Packers WR Ty Montgomery (ankle) left with an ankle injury against San Diego, while WR Davante Adams (ankle) continues to miss time. An ankle has also slowed RB Eddie Lacy (ankle). The bye comes at a great time for the Pack in Week 7.
-- Steelers QB Michael Vick (hamstring) suffered a hamstring injury in the win against the Cardinals, as QB Landry Jones came on and steered the offense to a win.
-- An MRI Monday revealed Titans QB Marcus Mariota (knee) suffered an MCL injury in Week 6 against the Dolphins.
Bad Beats
-- The Colts were up 34-21 in the final minutes of regulation, but the Colts drove the field and picked up the backdoor cover with a touchdown at 1:19 to go. To make matters worse, the Patriots blocked the extra point, which could have been returned for a score. Then, on the ensuing onside kick Rob Gronkowski recovered the ball and tip-toed down the sideline before stepping out of bounds. He was clearly upset he couldn't stay in and return in for a touchdown, and New England side bettors (myself included) felt his pain.
-- 'Under' (52) bettors (again, myself included) were stung by a Devonta Freeman touchdown reception with 1:29 to go in Falcons-Saints, turning what looked to be a solid 'under' into a push for most. The teams had combined for a total of 31 points before scoring three touchdowns in the final stanza, including 14 points in the final 8:02.
-- With a total of just 24 points heading into the final quarter, Texans-Jaguars (43.5) was a defensive battle. Then, the teams combined for 27 points in the final 11:20 to easily push the total over. A pick-six with 7:55 was the straw that broke the under bettor's back, and likely caused plenty of bad words.
-- The Titans did their part of the 'under' (44), but the Dolphins hurt bettors with a touchdown strike with 1:54 to go despite being up 31-10.
-- Ravens-49ers was a close shave on the total (43.5), and it looked to be trending under in the final minutes. 'Under' bettors were even helped out by the Levi's Field turf, as a hole caused Justin Tucker to miss a field goal. But two unwanted touchdowns in the final 10:52.
Looking Ahead
-- The Seahawks and 49ers lock horns in Santa Clara Thursday night, and they look to maintain their dominance in this series. Seattle limps in at 2-4, but a meeting with San Francisco could be the cure for their ills. They have won five of the past six meetings straight-up, and they're 6-0-1 in their past seven matchups including a playoff meeting. The last time the Seahawks did not cover against the 49ers was Dec. 24, 2011, and the last time Seattle didn't cover at San Francisco was at Candlestick Park Sept. 11, 2011. Seattle is favored by 5 1/2 points in this one as of Monday afternoon.
-- The Vikings and Lions battle for the second time this season. Minnesota won and covered in Minneapolis in Week 2, taking a 26-16 decision with an 'under' result. The under is a perfect 5-0 for the Vikings this season. These teams have been rather evenly matched over the years, with Minnesota edging Detroit 7-6 SU in the past 13 meetings. However, the Vikings have dominated against the number 8-3-2 ATS during the span, and the 'under' has cashed in four straight meetings. The under is 9-4 in the past 13 head-to-head battles, with the last 'over' Sept. 8, 2013. The Vikings are installed as a 2 1/2-point favorite with the total hovering around 44 1/2.
-- The Jets travel to New England to meet the Patriots, and the line opened at 10 and quickly fell to 8 1/2. While New York has lost seven of the past meetings straight up, the Jets have covered four in a row in the series, and six of the past nine. The Jets are also 4-1 ATS in their past five trips to Gillette Stadium, including a playoff win Jan. 16, 2011.
-- The Cowboys won an improbable game against the Giants back in Week 1, 27-26, as New York mismanaged the clock in the waning minutes allowing Tony Romo and the Cowboys to win. This time around there will be no Romo, as Matt Cassel is expected to lead the offense. One thing is certain about this series -- it is usually high-scoring. Each of the past six meetings have had an 'over' result. Dallas has also won five straight in the series, covering three. The last time the Giants won was Oct. 28, 2012 in Dallas, and the last time the Cowboys fell in New Jersey was a setback Jan. 1, 2012.
-- The Chargers host the Raiders, and that usually means a win. San Diego has won six of the past seven meetings, although Oakland is 4-1 ATS in the past five. The 'under' has also hit in three of the past four matchups, and the 'under' is 8-1-1 in the past 10 meetings in San Diego dating back to the 2004 season.
October 19, 2015
Overall Notes
NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 4 RESULTS
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 7-6
Against the Spread 3-10
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 7-6
Against the Spread 7-6
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 9-3-1
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Panthers (+7, +260 ML) at Seahawks, 27-23
Steelers (+6, +205 ML) vs. Cardinals, 25-13
The largest favorite to cover
Jets (-7.5) vs. Redskins, 34-20
Kardiac Kids
-- The Cleveland Browns might not be winning games on a regular basis just yet, but they're sure giving their fans a lot of heart failure with the close games. For the second straight week they went to overtime, losing this time against the Denver Broncos. Each of their past three games have been decided by three points, going 1-2 SU and 3-0 ATS during the span. In addition, the 'over' has connected in all six of their games, making the Browns a favorite for bettors in 2015.
Mmm, mmm Good
-- The Miami Dolphins turned to interim coach Dan Campbell to 'soup' up the offense and turn things around after dismissing Joe Philbin during the bye. So far, so good. The Dolphins manhandled the Tennessee Titans in Nashville, 38-10, re-discovering its run game in the process. Miami's 38-point outburst was by far its largest of the season, with a previous best of 20 in a loss in Week 2 at Jacksonville. It was also the team's first cover since Week 1. The team's win might be overvalued a bit, however, as they opened as a five-point favorite against the Houston Texans in Week 7.
AFC vs. NFC
-- There were five intraconference tilts in Week 6, with the NFC edging the AFC 3-2 SU, and the AFC going 3-2 ATS. Home teams in these games went a perfect 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS, with the underdog cashing in three of the games. The more impressive was the win by the Pittsburgh Steelers, roughing up the visiting Arizona Cardinals 25-13 as six-point 'dogs at home. You always have to be mindful of those west-coast teams traversing three time zones going east, especially for a 1pm kickoff. It usually doesn't end well for the travelers. The 'under' went 3-2 in the five AFC vs. NFC games, and in the past three weeks that number is 8-5 for the 'under'. For the season the under is 15-8-1 (65.2%) in intraconference matchups.
Total Recall
-- Once again the game with the lowest total on the board (39.5) went 'over' rather easily. The Redskins-Jets game saw a combined 54 total points scored. The next lowest total (41) also easily went 'over', as Panthers-Seahawks had a total of 50 points. With or without overtime, Broncos-Browns (41.5) was also in the bag, as was Bengals-Bills (42.5). In other words, don't be dissuaded by those low total numbers. Those games have a good chance of hitting 'over', as was the case Sunday.
-- There was nothing deflated about the Patriots-Colts (53.5) total, as it was the highest on the board in Week 6. In fact, the two highest totals on the board were the Pats-Colts and Falcons-Saints (52) were both primetime battles. While the SNF game was a 'bad beat' for the line (see below), the 'over' easily connected. The Thursday night NFC South battle was a push. The Monday night game between the Giants-Eagles features a 51-point total.
-- Last weekend the primetime games had a 2-1 'over' mark, and this week it sits at 1-0-1 with Monday to go. So far this season the over is still just 7-10-1 (41.2%) through 18 games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.
Injury Report
-- Bills WR Sammy Watkins (ankle) was able to score a touchdwn against the unbeaten Bengals, but he suffered an ankle injury in the end zone while securing the ball.
-- Broncos WR Emmanuel Sanders (shoulder) left the overtime win at Cleveland on the final play of regulation, suffering a shoulder injury. DL Shane Ray (knee) also left with what is believed to be a rather serious knee injury.
-- Cardinals TE Darren Fells (shoulder) left the Week 6 loss at Pittsburgh due to a shoulder ailment.
-- Chargers WR Keenan Allen (hip) was en route to a record-setting day before leaving the Week 6 loss at Green Bay due to a hip ailment. He was one reception short of the single-game franchise record before departing.
-- Chiefs WR Jeremy Maclin (concussion) checked out of the Week 6 at Minnesota early due to a concussion.
-- Giants WR Victor Cruz (knee) continues to sit as he makes his way back from knee and calf injuries.
-- Jaguars WR Allen Robinson (leg) suffered a bruised leg in the Week 6 loss to Houston, and he was on crutches after the game.
-- Packers WR Ty Montgomery (ankle) left with an ankle injury against San Diego, while WR Davante Adams (ankle) continues to miss time. An ankle has also slowed RB Eddie Lacy (ankle). The bye comes at a great time for the Pack in Week 7.
-- Steelers QB Michael Vick (hamstring) suffered a hamstring injury in the win against the Cardinals, as QB Landry Jones came on and steered the offense to a win.
-- An MRI Monday revealed Titans QB Marcus Mariota (knee) suffered an MCL injury in Week 6 against the Dolphins.
Bad Beats
-- The Colts were up 34-21 in the final minutes of regulation, but the Colts drove the field and picked up the backdoor cover with a touchdown at 1:19 to go. To make matters worse, the Patriots blocked the extra point, which could have been returned for a score. Then, on the ensuing onside kick Rob Gronkowski recovered the ball and tip-toed down the sideline before stepping out of bounds. He was clearly upset he couldn't stay in and return in for a touchdown, and New England side bettors (myself included) felt his pain.
-- 'Under' (52) bettors (again, myself included) were stung by a Devonta Freeman touchdown reception with 1:29 to go in Falcons-Saints, turning what looked to be a solid 'under' into a push for most. The teams had combined for a total of 31 points before scoring three touchdowns in the final stanza, including 14 points in the final 8:02.
-- With a total of just 24 points heading into the final quarter, Texans-Jaguars (43.5) was a defensive battle. Then, the teams combined for 27 points in the final 11:20 to easily push the total over. A pick-six with 7:55 was the straw that broke the under bettor's back, and likely caused plenty of bad words.
-- The Titans did their part of the 'under' (44), but the Dolphins hurt bettors with a touchdown strike with 1:54 to go despite being up 31-10.
-- Ravens-49ers was a close shave on the total (43.5), and it looked to be trending under in the final minutes. 'Under' bettors were even helped out by the Levi's Field turf, as a hole caused Justin Tucker to miss a field goal. But two unwanted touchdowns in the final 10:52.
Looking Ahead
-- The Seahawks and 49ers lock horns in Santa Clara Thursday night, and they look to maintain their dominance in this series. Seattle limps in at 2-4, but a meeting with San Francisco could be the cure for their ills. They have won five of the past six meetings straight-up, and they're 6-0-1 in their past seven matchups including a playoff meeting. The last time the Seahawks did not cover against the 49ers was Dec. 24, 2011, and the last time Seattle didn't cover at San Francisco was at Candlestick Park Sept. 11, 2011. Seattle is favored by 5 1/2 points in this one as of Monday afternoon.
-- The Vikings and Lions battle for the second time this season. Minnesota won and covered in Minneapolis in Week 2, taking a 26-16 decision with an 'under' result. The under is a perfect 5-0 for the Vikings this season. These teams have been rather evenly matched over the years, with Minnesota edging Detroit 7-6 SU in the past 13 meetings. However, the Vikings have dominated against the number 8-3-2 ATS during the span, and the 'under' has cashed in four straight meetings. The under is 9-4 in the past 13 head-to-head battles, with the last 'over' Sept. 8, 2013. The Vikings are installed as a 2 1/2-point favorite with the total hovering around 44 1/2.
-- The Jets travel to New England to meet the Patriots, and the line opened at 10 and quickly fell to 8 1/2. While New York has lost seven of the past meetings straight up, the Jets have covered four in a row in the series, and six of the past nine. The Jets are also 4-1 ATS in their past five trips to Gillette Stadium, including a playoff win Jan. 16, 2011.
-- The Cowboys won an improbable game against the Giants back in Week 1, 27-26, as New York mismanaged the clock in the waning minutes allowing Tony Romo and the Cowboys to win. This time around there will be no Romo, as Matt Cassel is expected to lead the offense. One thing is certain about this series -- it is usually high-scoring. Each of the past six meetings have had an 'over' result. Dallas has also won five straight in the series, covering three. The last time the Giants won was Oct. 28, 2012 in Dallas, and the last time the Cowboys fell in New Jersey was a setback Jan. 1, 2012.
-- The Chargers host the Raiders, and that usually means a win. San Diego has won six of the past seven meetings, although Oakland is 4-1 ATS in the past five. The 'under' has also hit in three of the past four matchups, and the 'under' is 8-1-1 in the past 10 meetings in San Diego dating back to the 2004 season.