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Books win another Sunday
December 14, 2015


Last week the Patriots were looking at being the AFC’s No. 3 seed in the playoffs as they stumbled through their first two losses of the season. However, following losses by both Cincinnati and Denver in Sunday‘s Week 14 action, coupled with the Patriots 24-9 win at Houston in the late game, it’s the Patriots once again in control their own destiny with the No. 1 seed with three more games to play before the playoffs start.

Prior to the Patriots dropping its second straight game to temporarily put them in the No. 3 position, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook had them as the massive 5/2 favorites (Bet $100 to win $250) to win the Super Bowl. After the loss, they fell into a tie with the undefeated Panthers at 4/1 odds. On Monday, with New England back in the drivers seat for home field advantage and with tight end Rob Gronkowski back in action, the Westgate dropped them back down to 7/2 as the lone favorite.

Bettors all had a feeling that the Patriots wouldn’t lose three straight games and they came strong on them laying -3 all the way up to -4.5. William Hill sports books had 85 percent of the tickets written on the game on them as well as 89 percent of the overall cash wagered, which was by far the most one sided action of the day and took a big chunk of the profit the sports books had tucked away after grinding out the first 13 games.

“We ended up being a small winner, but it wasn’t a great day,” said Boyd gaming sports book director Bob Scucci prior to the Patriots win. “We had a lot of great two-way handle on each of the games and the games we had big public action on (parlays) we seemed to have sharp action on the other side so they both kind of balanced each other out.“

Scucci wasn’t lucky enough to have sharps balance out the risk on the Houston side like they did with so many other popular public games. He said the Patriots covering would mean giving back about half of what they had won on the day, but the game staying UNDER 46 would help.


The first 11 games of the day was just a case of the books winning a few and the bettors winning getting their fair share of victories as well.

“The Panthers was our worst game of the morning, and Cleveland wasn’t good either, but we did fare well with Detroit failing to cover -- that game ran all the way to -3 -- and the Chargers and Saints covering also went our way.”

Carolina ran its record to 13-0 with a 38-0 pounding of Atlanta, which easily covered the nine-point spread. The public and sharps were both on that side. The Falcons failed to cover the spread for its ninth straight game. Johnny Manziel made good on his return to the Browns starting lineup with a 24-10 home victory over the 49ers. Sharp action pushed the Browns from -1 to -2.5, while the public was backing San Francisco with its parlays.

The Rams finally bucked its five game losing streak with a 21-14 home victory over the Lions, who were bet by sharp money from pick ‘em to being the 3-point road favorite.


The Chiefs had won and covered six straight games prior to its home match against the Chargers and bettors laid -10 all the way up to -12.5 with Kansas City, but there was rain throughout and the Chiefs could only muster a 10-3 win.


With New Orleans losing four straight, the public was down on them at Tampa Bay and the Bucs, who had covered six of its last eight prior, were bet up from -3.5 to -6.”

“There were lots of significant lines moves this week, probably more than any other week,” said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick.

So after showing just the smallest of profits through the first 11 games, there were only two games to bet on in the afternoon and the majority were dialed in on the favorites putting them together in parlays and teasers.

"We kind of spilt the afternoon games with both favorites receiving lots of action,” said Scucci. “I would have much rather had the Cowboys cover in the afternoon than the Raiders just because we had more large wagers on the Raiders than Dallas."

While straight bets hurt most of the books with Oakland, the silver lining for them was the bettors’ parlays and teasers destroyed because of Denver losing. Some of those teasers were left over from Thursday night with the Cardinals and Carolina was another popular teaser choice. Denver and Green Bay were the last of the touchdown favored teams on the board that are popular with teaser players.

There were mixed reports around town concerning the handle. Some said it was the worst of the NFL season and others said it was right on par with what they have been doing. Rooms across town were the emptiest they’ve been all season and at some junctures Saturday the strip looked like a ghost town -- at least while the 15,000 Irishmen were inside the MGM Grand Garden Arena for the UFC 194 event culminating with Conor McGregor’s win.

“I think the biggest reason for things being slower this week was no college football on Saturday because bettors usually churn their winning tickets from Saturday into NFL action,” said Scucci. “It’s holiday season of course too, and the rodeo was just closing out.“

For the remaining few weeks of the NFL regular season the books will have an infusion of excitement and additional cash wagered due to the college football bowl season starting. These NFL teams seem to be getting harder and harder to read, which favors the books to keep its win streak against the public alive.


At one juncture the books and public were tied at 3-3, but the books have reeled off eight consecutive Sunday's without losing.
 

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Bengals will rely on McCarron next Sunday


CINCINNATI -- Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton will miss at least one game after fracturing the thumb on his throwing hand while making a tackle in the first quarter of Cincinnati's 33-20 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.


Dalton said he will meet with a hand specialist Monday to determine the extent of the injury, which comes at a bad time for the Bengals, who are on the verge of an AFC North division title and pursuing a bye in the postseason.


ESPN, citing anonymous team sources, reported that Dalton will miss the rest of the regular season, with the best-case scenario being a return in the playoffs.


"It's unfortunate that it happened at this point in the season," Dalton said. "I'll do everything I can to get back as quick as I can to help this team. I'm doing fine. There are people way worse off than I am."


The injury occurred when Dalton tackled Steelers defensive end Stephon Tuitt following an interception. The Bengals' quarterback said he wasn't immediately aware of the extent of his injury.


"I tried to grip a ball on the sideline and thought it was just a bruise I could (play) through," he said. "But I went in and got the X-ray."


A.J. McCarron, who had just four career pass attempts, replaced Dalton on Sunday and went 22 of 32 for 280 yards and two touchdowns along with two interceptions.


McCarron will make his first NFL start on Sunday at San Francisco.


Although he played in plenty of high-profile games while at the University of Alabama, McCarron said Sunday that the NFL is a different game than college.


For the Bengals, the stakes couldn't be higher.


Cincinnati (10-3) is off to its best start under coach Marvin Lewis and is looking to end a 25-year postseason victory drought.


"If you don't (have confidence) you're doomed," said McCarron following Sunday's game. "I've always believed in myself when I've stepped between those white lines. If you lose confidence it can go bad for you real quick."


McCarron played well on Sunday, other than a pair of careless interceptions, one of which was returned 23 yards for a touchdown by the Steelers' William Gay.


Receiver A.J. Green, who had five catches for 115 yards, including a 66-yard TD on balls thrown by McCarron on Sunday, said he has the confidence of the locker room.


"He a winner," said Green of McCarron. "He's used to the big stage. He stays in the moment, that's the big thing about him. He prepares so well. He's ready for his number to be called at any moment."


McCarron's number has been called, and he has big shoes to fill.


In 13 games including Sunday, Dalton passed for 3,250 with 25 touchdowns this season with seven interceptions and a 106.2 passer rating.


After being among the healthiest teams in the NFL for much of the year, injuries now are hitting the Bengals hard.


The secondary has been decimated with the loss of corner Adam Jones. Tight end Tyler Eifert had just returned from a neck injury but left Sunday's game with a concussion.


But no injury would be as crushing as Dalton's. Now the Bengals must await further word on Monday about the quarterback's condition.


"Andy will be out for a bit," said coach Marvin Lewis. "We'll see. I can't heal bones. We've been giving A.J. time in practice trying to create opportunity for him, but it's nothing like coming out and playing real football against a good defense."
 

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Rivera has to juggle staying unbeaten vs. resting starters
December 14, 2015


CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) Panthers coach Ron Rivera faces a difficult decision over the next three weeks: rest key players in preparation for the postseason, or go all-in to match the 1972 Miami Dolphins as the only NFL team to finish unbeaten.


For now, he's sticking with his starters because there is still more at stake.


Carolina can clinch NFC home-field advantage this week with a win over the New York Giants combined with an Arizona loss to Philadelphia. If both Carolina and Arizona (11-2) win, the Panthers will have to wait another week before trying to wrap up the No. 1 seed.


''You can't play scared,'' Rivera said. ''... This week coming up is important. We would love to be able to have home-field advantage all of the way through.''


Rivera said he may re-evaluate his stance on whether to play key players if the Panthers clinch home-field advantage.


The Panthers (13-0) wrapped up a first-round bye with a resounding 38-0 win over the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, but the game was a reminder of the inherent dangers that come with playing a physical sport.


Carolina lost starting cornerback Bene Benwikere to a broken leg in the fourth quarter and he's out for the season.


Quarterback Cam Newton, tight end Greg Olsen and running back Jonathan Stewart - the team's three offensive stalwarts - all had injury scares. Olsen injured his left knee and Stewart his left ankle, prompting Rivera to sit both for the entire second half with the Panthers leading 28-0. They were set to undergo ''precautionary MRIs'' on Monday, but Rivera said after the game both could have gone back in.


Newton banged his funny bone, causing his hand to go numb briefly, but returned after sitting out one play and later threw his third touchdown pass of the game.


''Trying to win football games there is always a risk,'' Newton said after Sunday's win. ''When you are out there on that field, any of the 11 people there is at risk.''


If the Panthers lock up the No. 1 seed, Rivera isn't sure if he'll continue to play his top players, as Bill Belichick did in 2007 season during New England's quest for perfection, or rest them, as Jim Caldwell and the Indianapolis Colts did in 2009 after starting 14-0.


Both teams wound up losing in the Super Bowl, so there's no proven theory on how to approach the situation.


Rivera rested most of his starters in the fourth quarter on Sunday with a huge lead, relying on the team's backups to complete the franchise's sixth shutout.


That didn't sit well with everyone.


Charles Johnson, the team's highly competitive defensive end, took to Twitter to express his displeasure with Rivera's decision to take him out in the fourth quarter.


''Good game overall as a TEAM!!?'' Johnson tweeted from his account. ''(W)hat's the point of having good pass rushers if u sit them at the beginning of the 4 quarter (hash)KeepPounding.''


Rivera said Monday he wasn't upset with Johnson's comments, adding that he appreciates the veteran's competitiveness and desire to be on the field. But Rivera said he wishes Johnson had talked to him first rather than discussing his thoughts on social media.


''The bottom line is it's not about getting stats or anything like that this time of the year,'' Rivera said. ''What it is about is making sure we're healthy and judicious in who play. Yeah, we could have played everybody and tried to do more things. But I didn't want Luke (Kuechly) out there, TD (Thomas Davis) out there, or Charles out there. I appreciate him wanting to play. I really do.''
 

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Betting Recap - Week 14
December 15, 2015



Overall Notes



NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 14 RESULTS


Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 11-5
Against the Spread 9-7


Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-7
Against the Spread 7-9


Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 4-12


The largest underdogs to win straight up
Raiders (+6, ML +220) at Raiders, 15-12
Saints (+6, ML +210) at Buccaneers, 24-17


The largest favorites to cover
Seahawks (-10.5) at Ravens, 35-6
Panthers (-8.5) vs. Falcons, 38-0


Cat's Meow


-- There are plenty of people who continue to refuse to take the Carolina Panthers seriously despite their unblemished straight up record (13-0). They pounded the skidding Atlanta Falcons by a 38-0 score. The Panthers are now 5-1 ATS over their past six games, and 10-3 ATS for the season. Inside their division the Panthers are 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS, with both non-covers against the Saints. They have a quick turnaround with a trip to Atlanta in Week 16.
Cash-onville Jaguars


-- The Jacksonville Jaguars have been a friend to bettors in the past, but that's because they were picking against the once lowly and moribund franchise. But the Jags are showing signs of life with a young nucleus, routing the divisional rival Indianapolis Colts 51-16 to snap the Colts' 16-game AFC South win streak. The Jaguars are 3-2 SU over the past five games, but more importantly they are 5-1-1 ATS over the past seven games with the 'over' hitting in three straight. The Jags are good for 19 or more points in each of their past nine games, while averaging a gaudy 45.0 PPG over the past two. Inside the division the Jags are 2-3 SU and 3-1-1 ATS. They finish in Houston Jan. 3, 2016, and the Texans are the only AFC South team to beat the Jaguars and cover against them.


AFC vs. NFC


-- The AFC and NFC hooked up for a total of four games in Week 14, with the NFC going 3-1 SU/ATS. The Cleveland Browns were the unlikely flag carrier for the AFC, turning back the visiting San Francisco 49ers 24-10. The red-hot Seattle Seahawks won and covered as double-digit (10 1/2) point favorite on the road, topping the Baltimore Ravens, 35-6. The Philadelphia Eagles did it again, winning inside the AFC East with their 23-20 win against the Buffalo Bills. Philly will be sad to see the AFC East go, as they were 3-1 SU/ATS against them this season.


-- The 'under' went 3-1 in the four AFC vs. NFC matchups in Week 14, and the 'under' is 26-13-1 (67.4%) in the past 44 over the past 11 weeks. For the season, the 'under' is 33-16-2 (67.3%) in intraconference matchups this season.


Total Recall


-- In Week 14 the story was the 'under', cashing in 12 of 16 games. In fact, we saw the lowest scoring game of the season, with the Kansas City Chiefs nipping the San Diego Chargers, 10-3. Shootouts never materialized in the games with the highest totals, as the Saints-Buccaneers game had a total of 52, highest on the board, but came in well 'under' at 41, with just 14 points scored in the second half.


-- The lowest total on the board was in the Lions-Rams game, with a total set at just 41.5 That low number was never threatened in the 21-14 win by St. Louis, as the teams played catch-up with the total after a scoreless first quarter and just seven total points at halftime.


-- The Vikings-Cardinals saw the under come through Thursday night, as Minnesota's 'under' streak is back on track. The under is now 5-1-1 in the past seven games for the Vikings, and 10-2-1 overall this season. They have a total of 43 points set for next Sunday's home game against the Bears.


-- The 'under' was 2-1 in three primetime games in Week 14. Officially, the 'over' is still just 15-24-1 (38.4%) through 40 games under the lights. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.


Injury Report


-- Bengals QB Andy Dalton (thumb) suffered a fractured thumb attempting a tackle following a turnover, and reports indicate he will be sidelined for the rest of the season. That leaves former Alabama QB A.J. McCarron at the helm. TE Tyler Eifert (concussion) is also in the concussion protocol after leaving early.


-- Bills TE Charles Clay (knee) exited the Week 14 loss in Philadelphia due to a knee injury. His status for Week 15 is uncertain.


-- Chiefs RB Spencer Ware (ribs) was forced out of the win against the Chargers with a rib injury, and he had an MRI Monday. He is reportedly just sore, so he might be able to return for one or both of the final two regular season games.


-- Jaguars RB T.J. Yeldon (knee) was forced out of the blowout win against the Colts with a knee injury. It's uncertain if it was more of a precaution due to the game being out of hand, or a more serious issues.


-- The Panthers lost both TE Greg Olsen (knee) and RB Jonathan Stewart (foot) in their shutout win against the Falcons. Neither injury is believed to be serious, and their absence in the later stages of the game is believed to be due more because of the lopsided nature of the game.


-- Patriots RB LeGarrette Blount (hip) checked out of the Sunday night game in Houston with a hip injury, and he apepared to be in serious pain.


-- Texans QB Brian Hoyer (neck) was knocked out of the SNF game against the Patriots, and his status is considered doubtful for the key trip to Indianapolis in Week 15. If he cannot go it would be QB T.J. Yates making another start.


Looking Ahead


-- The Buccaneers look to rebound in Week 15, while the Rams look to continue to finish up strong. Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in their past five against losing teams, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven road games. However, they are 0-4 ATS in their past four games on turf. While the Rams are just 1-4-1 ATS in their past six games, that lone cover came Sunday against the Lions. And the Rams are 0-4 ATS in their past four meetings with the Rams, while the underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the past 10 in the series.


-- The Bears have covered five consecutive road games, and they're 7-3 ATS in their past 10 games overall. Chicago is also just 13-29 ATS in their past 42 aginst NFC foes. The Vikings have dropped back-to-back games for the first time all season, and they're looking to get back on track. Minnesota is 9-2 ATS in their past 11 home games against road teams with losing record. The Vikings have covered eight of their past 11 overall at home, and they're 5-2 ATS in their past seven NFC North battles. The 'under' has hit in four straight in this series, and four straight meetings in Minneapolis.


-- The Texans have question marks at QB going into Week 15. They're 5-2-1 ATS in their past eight AFC South games, but it's a different story with a backup QB. The Colts are 20-6 ATS in their past 26 against teams with a losing record, and 18-7-1 ATS in their past 26 against AFC South clubs. The Texans are 0-4-1 ATS in their past five trips to Indy, and 0-5-1 ATS in their past six meetings. The 'under' is also 7-3 in the past 10 meetings, with the under 6-0 in the past six at Lucas Oil Stadium.


-- The Seahawks host the Browns, and they're more than a two-touchdown favorite. Seattle is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their four games as a double-digit favorite this season.
 

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Close Calls - Week 14
December 15, 2015


Each week there are a handful of NFL games that go down to the wire not only on the scoreboard, but also relative to the pointspread. Here is a look at the outcome-impacting late game plays from Week 13 of the NFL season with several games nearly featuring a different result.


Arizona Cardinals (-10) 23, Minnesota Vikings 20 (46½): With numerous injuries on defense, the line on this game skyrocketed from -7 to as high as -10½ with the total also climbing as well. The Vikings had costly fumbles on both sides of halftime as it looked like Arizona might pull away with a 20-10 lead after settling for a short field goal early in the fourth quarter. A strong kickoff return sparked a Minnesota scoring drive with Blair Walsh hitting from 54 yards to put Minnesota back within seven. The defense held on a key third-and-one play to force a three-and-out and the Vikings put together an 88-yard drive to tie the game with under five minutes to go. Arizona was down the field and in field goal range quickly, but a negative play for the Cardinals set them in a hole and Minnesota used two timeouts to preserve over a minute of clock after Chandler Catanzaro hit the go-ahead field goal.


Minnesota hit a few nice gains and wound up with third-and-10 from the Arizona 31-yard line with 13 seconds to go, in range for a field goal to force overtime, a kick that would have also clinched the ‘over’ for most as well. Teddy Bridgewater looked like a still young quarterback on the next play, taking far too long in what needed to be a quick throw with no timeouts. He was sacked and the ball came out with Arizona recovering to end the game. Minnesota still managed to cover to burn anyone that followed the herd with the line move and the Vikings remained one of the top ‘under’ teams in the league with the game staying just below the total.


Pittsburgh Steelers (+1) 33, Cincinnati Bengals 20 (49): Pittsburgh grabbed an early lead in this key AFC North clash and Andy Dalton exited the game for the Bengals in the first half. Leading 16-7 at the half, the Steelers had a pick-six early in the third quarter to basically wrap up the game playing as a slight underdog. The game appeared well on pace to stay ‘under’ with 33 points through three quarters and just a pair of field goals on the early possessions of the final quarter. With Cincinnati pinned deep, A.J. McCarron was intercepted to hand Pittsburgh great field position and the Steelers ran in a touchdown with less than four minute to go to make the score 33-13 with little room left to hit the total. Those on the ‘over’ got what they needed as McCarron led an 80-yard drive with a limited effort from the Steelers defense and the Bengals scored a touchdown with just over a minute to go in the game to only lose by 13, but getting enough points to reach the total that was as high as 50 during the week.


Philadelphia Eagles (-1) 23, Buffalo Bills 20 (48): The Eagles led 20-10 early in the second half, but the Bills would have the game tied by the end of the third quarter with the small spread on this game meaning in most scenarios the outright victor would also cover. Momentum appeared to stay with the Bills with an interception in the red zone from Sam Bradford. Field position was in Philadelphia’s favor as the Bills were forced to punt. The Eagles had a quick three-and-out with the game still tied at 20, but again Buffalo was pinned deep and had to kick it back to the Eagles. Philadelphia drove as far as the Buffalo 12-yard line, but ultimately had to settle for three to leave room for the Bills to answer as Buffalo punted again on its next possession. In the final two minutes, Tyrod Taylor was intercepted taking a shot down the field as Philadelphia won for the second straight week to stay in the playoff hunt with the game also staying just ‘under’ as well with Buffalo’s inability to find the end zone late.


Washington Redskins (+4) 24, Chicago Bears 21 (43½): Hearing all week about how they had not won a road game all season, the Redskins opened up a 14-0 lead in Chicago with two long scoring drives. The Bears managed to find the end zone just before halftime to stay within a score, but early in the third quarter, Washington connected for another touchdown on a key third down play. Chicago answered and Kirk Cousins was intercepted on the next Washington possession. The Bears tied the game at 21-21 three plays later. Early in the fourth quarter, the Redskins went back in front with a field goal and the teams exchanged four punts, but with Washington moving the ball more effectively to keep the Bears with a long field to work with. Getting the ball back with just over two minutes to go, the Bears moved into field goal range before stalling and Robbie Gould failed with another miss to the right from 50 yards as Washington held on without overtime.


St. Louis Rams (+3) 21, Detroit Lions 14 (41½): The only scoring in the first half was a 58-yard interception return touchdown for the Rams and St. Louis still led 14-7 after trading touchdowns in the third quarter. Capping off a big day, Todd Gurley rushed in for a touchdown early in the fourth quarter to put the slight underdog up by 14. The Lions eventually added another touchdown a possession later with a 14-play drive, but a lot of time was used up leaving just over two minutes to go. With hopes to deliver a miracle comeback of their own, the Lions actually got the on-side kick to sit in a great position to have a chance to tie the games, but Detroit failed to pick up a first down and the Rams picked up the first down they needed to run off the clock with the ‘under’ on one of the lower totals of the week also staying there.


Kansas City Chiefs (-12½) 10, San Diego Chargers 3 (42): With the Chiefs leading 10-3 into the fourth quarter, the ‘under’ was a clear winner in this AFC West clash and while the Chiefs were in San Diego territory twice in the fourth quarter, they never threatened to score opting to leave the Chargers with a long field. A pick-six was certainly a possibility with Philip Rivers, but the Chargers made a great final drive that included three fourth down conversions, eventually lining up with first-and-goal from the 1-yard line, but with only 16 seconds to go for those hoping to extend the game or possibly cash a San Diego moneyline ticket that would have been north of +400. Both San Diego pass attempts as the rally fell short again for the Chargers as the S/U win streak for the Chiefs continues but the six-game ATS run was stopped.


Oakland Raiders (+6) 15, Denver Broncos 12 (43): The Broncos completely dominated the yardage totals in this game, but settled for four field goals in the first half including two of which came from less than 30 yards. That left Oakland in the game down just 12-0 despite picking up one first down in the first half and that first down came on a penalty. Getting the ball first in the second half, Oakland came out with a different energy, going 80 yards and connecting for a touchdown on a big third down play. Neither offense accomplished a lot on the next several possessions and after a long pass completion was overturned on review for the Raiders a great punt pinned Denver at the 2-yard line. The ball was knocked away from Brock Osweiler a few plays later and recovered by Denver in the end zone to avoid a go-ahead touchdown for the Raiders with the loose ball, but giving the Raiders a safety to make it a three-point game.


The Raiders did not make the most of the extra possession, but on the punt, Emmanuel Sanders fumbled to hand Oakland the ball at the Denver 11-yard line. The Raiders scored on a third-and-15 throw, but missed the two-point conversion to lead 15-12. Denver had its chance to answer early in the fourth quarter, but Brandon McManus missed from 49 yards with a chance to tie the game. Sebastian Janikowski missed from 43 yards later in the quarter to return the favor and Denver was forced to go for it on fourth down on its next two possessions in its own territory, coming up short both times as the Raiders delivered the low output upset.

New York Giants (-2) 31, Miami Dolphins 24 (48):
Miami took a 17-10 lead Monday night, but in the final minute before halftime, the Giants were able to tie the game. Both teams had touchdowns in the third quarter to keep the game tied and the total of 48 was reached with the score knotted at 24-24 heading into the fourth quarter after the Giants missed a field goal in the final minute of the third quarter. Getting the ball back pinned deep, the Giants took only two plays to go 96 yards for the go-ahead touchdown with an 84-yard pass play to Odell Beckham. Miami moved to the edge of field goal range on the next possession, but a holding call forced the Dolphins to punt. The Giants were not able to get a first down and Miami got the ball back near midfield with still over five minutes to play. The Dolphins were set back with a costly unnecessary roughness penalty and had to punt again. Miami had two timeouts remaining but the Giants picked up three first downs to run down the rest of the clock, keeping pace in the NFC East and with Beckham, Eli Manning, and Lamar Miller likely winning some fantasy playoff matchups around the country with big statistical nights.
 

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NFL Week 15 Essentials
December 15, 2015




Only three regular-season games remain. Surprisingly, 21 of 32 NFL teams are below .500, which means many mediocre squads remain in the hunt since two divisions are probably going to be won with records of 9-7 or 8-8. Week 15 will add a few key pieces to the puzzle. Here’s an early look:


Thursday, Dec. 17


Tampa Bay at St. Louis:
The Bucs suffered a costly home loss to New Orleans in Week 14 to fall back in the playoff hunt, managing a single first down in the first quarter in a sloppy penalty-filled game against the NFL’s worst defense. As a result, they wasted an opportunity to climb over .500 for the first time in three years, putting them in a situation where they’ll have to win out just to have a chance at a postseason berth. WR Vincent Jackson suffered an MCL sprain and is likely done for the season, so Jameis Winston won’t have one of his most effective weapons available.


Tampa Bay RB Doug Martin ranks second in the league in rushing (1,214 yards) and faces a depleted Rams run defense that is tied for 11th-worst, surrendering 115.9 yards per game. St. Louis rookie RB Todd Gurley ran for 140 yards and two scores in Sunday’s 21-14 win over Detroit and will be ready to play here despite banging knees late. Both teams are playing their only primetime contest of the season. The Bucs haven’t won a night game since 2013, while the Rams are winless in them since ’12, losing their last four.


Saturday, Dec. 19


N.Y. Jets at Dallas:
Stuck in a three-way tie with the Chiefs and Steelers for the final two playoff spots in the AFC, the Jets have virtually no room for error since those teams have fairly light schedules the rest of the way. The Jets have division rivals New England and Buffalo left after this one, making this visit to AT&T Stadium a must-win. Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown nine touchdowns without an interception during New York’s three-game winning streak and has made plays with his feet as well, but this Cowboys defense will be the best he’s seen since a loss at Houston on Nov. 22. Dallas isn’t mathematically eliminated in the NFC East, but brings up the rear in the division and can’t afford another loss. Matt Cassel has thrown a single TD pass in his last four starts. The ‘under’ is 7-3 in the last 10 Cowboys games. An unhappy Dez Bryant, set to visit Revis Island here, caught just one pass for nine yards in Sunday’s 28-7 loss at Green Bay and had multiple drops.


Sunday, Dec. 20


Chicago at Minnesota:
The Vikings could be sitting pretty if they had just kicked on third down and successfully gotten out of Arizona with an OT win. Because Mike Zimmer failed them with an awful decision, Minnesota has fallen behind Green Bay in the NFC North and looks vulnerable as they attempt to hang on to an NFC Wild Card spot by avoiding a bad loss here. The Vikes are 4-2 at home but have dropped consecutive games in Minneapolis. The Bears are actually 4-2 on the road and have won their last three in opposing stadiums, counting conquests at Arrowhead and Lambeau Field among their victories. Minnesota won the first meeting 23-20 on Nov. 1 on a last-second field goal from Blair Walsh to cap a rally from a 20-13 deficit inside the final two minutes. Defensive standouts Harrison Smith, Anthony Barr and Linval Joseph all missed the Arizona loss, so monitor their availability here.


Atlanta at Jacksonville: You would think Sunday’s 38-0 loss at Carolina would be rock bottom for the Falcons, but that wouldn’t necessarily be the safest of assumptions. Dan Quinn’s team has been unable to pick themselves up off the mat, entering their final road date of the season mired in a six-game losing streak. Remember when this team was 5-0? All hope isn’t lost just yet, but considering it would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker to Minnesota, Atlanta’s playoff hopes look bleak. The Jaguars actually seem like they’re closer to a postseason berth since they’re just one game back in their division and have a game in Houston to end the season. Blake Bortles has thrown eight touchdown passes and no picks over the last two games, helping the Jags pile up 90 points. He’ll be hoping to avoid an interception in three consecutive games for the first time in his career.

Houston at Indianapolis:
The AFC South could ultimately be decided here if the Jags fall off. The Texans and Colts enter 6-7,, so the winner takes control of the race. Andrew Luck (kidney) may wind up being available, but it will be up to doctors to clear him and the Colts weren’t optimistic entering their weekly preparation. Matt Hasselbeck defeated the Texans in Houston on a Thursday night to open Week 5, throwing for a pair of touchdowns in his highest-rated performance of the season, but he left Sunday’s 51-16 loss at Jacksonville with a rib injury. Charlie Whitehurst would start if both are unavailable. The Texans failed to score in the second half against New England in scoring a season-low six points on Sunday night. They’re 2-4 on the road this season and haven’t defeated Indianapolis since 2012, a span of six games. Brian Hoyer suffered a neck injury and is doubtful since he’s in concussion protocol for the second time in less than a month and got really dinged up, casting doubt on his availability the rest of the way. T.J. Yates will make his second start of the season and defeated the Jets 24-17 in Week 11. On the season, he’s thrown three touchdowns and no picks.


Kansas City at Baltimore: Since they don’t play a team with a winning record the rest of the way, the Chiefs are looking like a strong bet to reach the postseason for the second time under Andy Reid and just the second time since ‘06. Kansas City is working on a seven-game winning streak and hasn’t lost since Oct. 18. Despite the absence of top pass-rusher Justin Houston, who may return from a knee injury, the Chiefs held the Chargers to just three points on a rainy Sunday afternoon at Arrowhead. Baltimore was destroyed 35-6 by the Seahawks at home as Matt Schaub missed the game due to a chest injury, forcing Jimmy Clausen into action. It’s unclear who will start for the Ravens here, but their four home losses are already the most of the John Harbaugh era. They haven’t dropped five home games in a single season since 1997.


Buffalo at Washington: Kirk Cousins played well in Chicago as the ‘Skins finally won a road game on their sixth try, but they’re now back home for a date with the disappointed Bills, who fell just short in Philadelphia to put their playoff hopes on life support. Buffalo missed top corner Stephon Gilmore, whose availability here is also in question and would be a major detriment given the presence of DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon. Washington lost to Dallas at FedEx field in its last home game but is still 5-2 as it plays for the final time there this season unless it is able to secure a playoff spot. Buffalo is 3-4 on the road and has been involved in six consecutive one-possession games in opposing stadiums. WR Sammy Watkins has caught touchdowns in three straight games and has made 14 catches for 348 yards in that span, scoring four times.


Tennessee at New England: The Titans are 0-3 against AFC East opponents this season and have been outscored 82-31 in the losses, so considering they’re facing the team that has already clinched the division title for the seventh straight year, this doesn’t figure to go well. Marcus Mariota was held without a touchdown pass by the Jets for the fourth time in his rookie season but has been impressive on the road, throwing 10 touchdowns and just one interception in leading the Titans to two of their three victories outside Nashville. The Patriots welcomed back TE Rob Gronkowski in Sunday night’s win at Houston and may get WR Julian Edelman back from a foot injury. New England is 11-1 in games where Gronk plays and 9-0 when Edelman participates.

Carolina at N.Y. Giants:
The Giants are also in the mix in the NFC East, but have a difficult schedule with the unbeaten Panthers coming to town followed by a visit to Minnesota and a home date against the Eagles. Coming off Monday night’s win in Miami, New York must quickly turn the page and prepare to stop a Panthers offense that ranks second in the league in rushing but has found ways to make big plays through the air of late. With Josh Norman emerging as one of the top corners in the league this season, it’s going to be a blast to watch his one-on-one matchup with Odell Beckham Jr., who has at least a TD in four straight games and has six consecutive 100-yard receiving games. During that span, he’s got 43 catches on 76 targets for 794 yards and 8 TDs. The Panthers beat the Giants in Charlotte 38-0 in 2013 but haven’t beaten them in East Rutherford since a 23-0 playoff win in 2005.

Cleveland at Seattle:
The Seahawks have won six of seven, including four in a row, to put themselves on the cusp of a fourth consecutive playoff appearance. No one in the league is playing better than Russell Wilson during Seattle’s current winning streak (89-for-118, 1,171 yards, 16 TDs, 0 INTs), so a Browns secondary that has been missing leader Joe Haden and just put him on IR is in serious trouble. Corner Justin Gilbert missed the win over San Francisco with concussion symptoms, so this could be a depleted group facing red-hot receivers Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett. Johnny Manziel is 2-2 as the Browns starting QB this season after Sunday’s 24-10 win over the 49ers but has yet to win on the road. In fact, Manziel has taken the field in six opposing stadiums as a pro. All have been Cleveland losses. Seattle has actually lost the last two games in this series, last winning in 2003, the last time the Browns came to town.


Green Bay at Oakland: Northern California native Aaron Rodgers returns to the Bay area for the second time this season, having defeated the 49ers 24-10 in Week 4. After a rocky spot that saw them lose four of five games outright, the Packers have won consecutive games and come off their most lopsided win of the season, a 28-7 victory over Dallas. They’re back on top of the NFC North but finish the season at Arizona and home against Minnesota, so this is by far the Pack’s most manageable challenge. Oakland is basically playing spoiler despite not being mathematically eliminated from a playoff spot and handled the role well in a 15-12 upset of the Broncos on Sunday. Center Rodney Hudson couldn’t finish in Denver due to an ankle injury, so it remains to be seen whether he’ll be healthy enough to play here. The Packers have beaten the Raiders in six consecutive meetings, last losing in 1987.


Miami at San Diego: Dan Campbell’s audition for the Dolphins head coaching job started with a bang. Miami beat Tennessee and Houston by a combined margin of 82-36, but has lost five of seven since and been eliminated from playoff contention. The latest setback came at home on Monday night against New York, which means they’ll have a short week of preparation for this cross-country date with the slumping Chargers. Over the past four games, San Diego has been held to a single field goal on three separate occasions, which makes this the least attractive matchup in a week that has multiple duds.


Denver at Pittsburgh: Brock Osweiler tasted his first defeat as the Broncos starter against Oakland despite throwing for a career-high 308 yards on 35 completions. Without the injured C.J. Anderson, Denver managed just 34 yards on 21 carries to blow a game where its defense held Oakland to -12 yards in the first half. Demariyus Thomas, who appears to miss Peyton Manning more than anyone, dropped two key passes and fumbled as the Raiders defense dominated, registering five second-half sacks. There’s no way Denver is going to be able to hang with Pittsburgh’s offense on the road unless they get it together, so it will be interesting to see if they turn to Manning again since it’s likely that he’ll return to practice this week. The Steelers have won four of five and have averaged 35.2 points in that span, which is scary since Ben Roethlisberger didn’t even throw a TD pass in the 33-20 win over Cincinnati. This will be a matchup between two of the best corners in the NFL against an elite receiving corps.


Cincinnati at San Francisco: A.J. McCarron will attempt to become the first Alabama quarterback to win an NFL game since Jeff Rutledge in 1987 as he takes over for Andy Dalton, who broke his thumb making a tackle after an interception and probably won’t return this regular season. The Bengals are still in the mix for a bye in the AFC playoffs and need one more victory to clinch the North over the Steelers, so this is a pivotal game for them. They may have to go without tight end Tyler Eifert (concussion) and saw linebacker Vontaze Burfict and safety George Iloka each get banged up and leave Sunday’s loss to the Steelers, joining CB Adam Jones among injured defenders. The Bengals are just 3-9 lifetime against San Francisco and were dominated by the 49ers in Super Bowl XXIII. They’ve only beaten the 49ers once on the road, way back in 1974.


Arizona at Philadelphia: The Sunday night game is arguably the best matchup of the entire week. This battle of birds features two playoff hopefuls as the Eagles look to win three straight for the first time all season. After winning an emotional encounter over Buffalo following an upset at New England, Philadelphia is making a late push at avoiding being the season’s biggest underachiever. Sam Bradford has been mediocre this season, but has an opportunity to help put together his team’s first three-game winning streak of the season. The Eagles will run into MVP candidate Carson Palmer, who has thrown 32 touchdown passes and hasn’t been intercepted since Nov. 22. He’s getting plenty of help from rookie RB David Johnson, who has run for 191 yards over the last two games since being pressed into duty as the starter.


Monday, Dec. 21


Detroit at New Orleans:
A battle between last-place teams isn’t what the schedule-makers anticipated when they put this one together, but that’s what the country has to put up with here. At least there will be the pursuit of history in play. Drew Brees will look to pass Peyton Manning with his 94th career 300-yard game, the most in NFL history. He passed Dan Marino for fourth place in all-time touchdown passes (421) in last week’s win over Tampa Bay and needs just 206 passing yards to put together his 10th career season with 4,000 or more. Brees will be facing a Detroit pass defense that ranks 10th in the league. The Lions are 1-5 on the road this season and 0-3 in primetime games, last losing to Green Bay on a Hail Mary.
 

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Good times, bad times over 21 years at dome for Rams
December 16, 2015


ST. LOUIS (AP) The Rams host Tampa Bay on Thursday night in what could be the team's final home game in St. Louis as NFL owners weigh the possibility of allowing the franchise to move back to Southern California.


A rundown of the good, bad and ugly for the Rams over 21 seasons in St. Louis:


Winning seasons - 4


Coaches - 8 (counting interim coaches Joe Vitt, Jim Haslett)


Best seasons - 1999, Super Bowl championship; 2001, lost in Super Bowl


Worst seasons - 1-11 in 2009; 2-14 in 2011


Best first-round pick - Orlando Pace, 1997


Worst first-round pick - Lawrence Phillips, 1996


Worst trade - Jerome Bettis to Steelers for draft picks in 1996 to make room for Phillips.


Three best home games:


- RAMS vs. VIKINGS, Jan. 16, 2000:
The stadium has seldom been louder than the first playoff game in St. Louis in the Super Bowl title year, when the Rams blew out the Vikings behind the offense dubbed ''The Greatest Show on Turf.'' The Rams led 49-17 before letting off the gas and the Vikings made it look semi-respectable with three late TDs in a 49-37 final.


- RAMS vs. BUCCANEERS, Jan. 23, 2000: Ricky Proehl made a clutch 31-yard touchdown catch down the sideline, cradling the ball in his arms, for the go-ahead score in an 11-6 victory over Tampa Bay in the NFC championship game. The Rams sacked Shaun King five times, had two interceptions and forced a safety in a defensive struggle. The defense picked up Kurt Warner, who threw three interceptions before making the key toss.


- RAMS vs. PACKERS, Jan. 20, 2002. In the 2001 playoffs leading up to the second Super Bowl, the Rams intercepted Brett Favre six times, returning three for touchdowns, in a 45-17 rout over the Packers. Aeneas Williams had two of the returns, a 29-yarder to open the scoring and a 32-yarder to help seal it in the fourth quarter.


Three worst home games:


- RAMS vs 49ERS, Oct. 22, 1995
. San Francisco linebacker Ken Norton Jr. punctuated a 44-10 rout at Busch Stadium in 1995 by punching goal posts, then criticized his opponents as the ''same old, sorry (expletive) Rams.'' The Rams had been 5-1 in their new city, often relying on trick plays, but lost eight of their last 10 including the last three at home.


- RAMS VS. PANTHERS, Jan. 10, 2004. Steve Smith was untouched on a 69-yard TD pass in double-overtime in the division round of the playoffs, ending the Rams' last winning season on a somber note. St. Louis erased an 11-point lead in the final 2:39 and played for a tie to get it to overtime. ''I was very sure about the decision and don't regret the decision,'' Mike Martz said. Fans sat in stunned silence after Smith broke free.


- RAMS VS. VIKINGS, Sept. 7, 2014. Last year, great hopes for a turnaround season were immediately muted when the Rams got whipped 34-6 by the Vikings in the opener. Minnesota led from start to finish, intercepted Shaun Hill and Austin Davis once apiece and had five sacks. Hill started in place of Sam Bradford, who was lost for the second straight year with a knee injury, this one coming in the preseason.
 

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QBs Luck, Hoyer both out for Sunday
December 16, 2015


INDIANAPOLIS (AP) Andrew Luck went back to work Wednesday but still isn't ready to play.


Matt Hasselbeck missed practice Wednesday, yet Colts coach Chuck Pagano remains optimistic the 40-year-old backup will start Sunday's crucial game against Houston.


In Indianapolis, everything seems to be upside down and the only certainty is this: Luck will miss his fifth straight game, his seventh this season and his second in a row against his hometown team as he recovers from a lacerated kidney and partially torn abdominal muscle.


''I'm not going to sit here and try to play that whole game with the kid or the Texans or anything like that,'' Pagano said. ''He's not playing.''


Meaning a game that will split a tie atop the AFC South will come down to a battle of backups.


Houston coach Bill O'Brien said Wednesday that his starter, Brian Hoyer, will miss the game after being diagnosed with his second concussion in less than a month. So the Texans (6-7) will go with backup T.J. Yates.


The Colts (6-7) will go with either Hasselbeck, who is still trying to recover from rib and neck injuries, or third-string quarterback Charlie Whitehurst, who has only been with the team for five weeks.


The good news for Indy is that for the first time since he was injured Nov. 8, Luck wore a helmet and threw passes during the 30-minute portion of practice open to the media.


Officially, Pagano listed Luck as a limited participant before ruling him out. The Colts have said all along that they will not play Luck until the kidney is completely healthy - a risk they weren't willing to take since he hasn't been cleared for team drills.


''There's obviously disappointment. Every game you don't play is a disappointment,'' Luck said after acknowledging it felt good to be working with his teammates again. ''My kidney is not fully healed, so that does not allow me to get in a position with contact that could further injure myself worse.''


Hasselbeck continues to recover from his own injuries.


After winning his first four starts this season as Luck's replacement, Hasselbeck has lost his last two and has gotten beaten up in both. He left in the fourth quarter at Pittsburgh on Dec. 6 with neck and rib injuries and left last weekend's blowout loss at Jacksonville in the fourth quarter after apparently re-injuring the ribs.


Following the game, Hasselbeck's left arm was in a sling and it was still immobilized Wednesday as Hasselbeck watched Luck, Whitehurst and practice squad quarterback Alex Tanney throw. Hasselbeck has not spoken with reporters since before the Jacksonville game, an uncharacteristic move for the affable backup quarterback.


Pagano remains hopeful Hasselbeck will practice Thursday's practice and be available Sunday.


''I expect him to be out there and play,'' Pagano said, referring to Sunday's game.


If Hasselbeck can't go, Whitehurst would probably make his first start since Tennessee's 2014 season finale, against the Colts. Whitehurst has finished the last two games and replaced Hasselbeck for two plays in the third quarter when Hasselbeck also got hurt. He is 6 of 16 for 59 yards with no touchdowns and one interception this season.


The Texans are adapting, too.


Yates, who won his only other start with Houston this season, is 22 of 47 with 302 yards, three TDs and no interceptions. Former first-round draft pick Brandon Weeden will be the backup.


''He's a really bright guy, so now being here for a while, I think he has a really good grasp of our offense,'' O'Brien said of yates. ''So we can do the things we need to do to help us beat the Colts.''


Though the teams are tied for the AFC South lead, the two-time defending champion Colts tentatively hold the first tie-breaker courtesy of a 27-20 victory in Houston on Oct. 8. Another win Sunday would mean the Colts could clinch their third straight division crown with one more win or one more Houston loss.


If Houston wins, it would hold the inside track to a third division title in five years because of fewer losses against AFC South foes.


And all that will be decided by a couple of backups.


''He (Whitehurst) took every team rep basically today, which was great for him in his maturation and his understanding of the offense, the communication, the language, timing, all that stuff,'' Pagano said. ''It was good. We'll continue to prepare him just as we've done since he's been here.''


Notes: Safety Colt Anderson (ankle), cornerbacks Vontae Davis (knee) and Greg Toler (knee, hamstring), inside linebacker Jerrell Freeman (hamstring, ribs) and receiver Donte Moncrief (toe) all missed Wednesday's practice, too. ... Left tackle Anthony Castonzo (knee), tight end Jack Doyle (toe), inside linebacker D'Qwell Jackson (quad), cornerback D'Joun Smith (knee), right guard Hugh Thornton (elbow) and outside linebacker Erik Walden (foot) all did limited work in practice.
 

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Peyton Manning returns to practice
December 16, 2015


ENGLEWOOD, Colo. (AP) Peyton Manning returned to practice for the first time in 32 days but not to his starting job. That still belongs to Brock Osweiler for now.


''It was a little strange to watch Peyton take those scout team reps today,'' Osweiler said after Wednesday's workout.


Coach Gary Kubiak ruled out Manning for Sunday's showdown at Pittsburgh, but said the five-time MVP took a ''step in the right direction'' in his return from a torn plantar fascia in his left foot.


Manning threw tight spirals without any apparent difficulty or pain during the brief media viewing period.


Osweiler, who gets his fifth start Sunday, said it was strange taking first-team snaps and watching


Osweiler has gone 3-1 in Manning's place. The only loss came last week at home to Oakland even though Osweiler completed a career-best 35 passes and posted his first 300-yard passing game.


The Broncos (10-3) practiced indoors following a heavy snowstorm.


They travel to Pittsburgh (8-5) Sunday. It's the only game this weekend pitting teams with winning records.
 

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NFL
Long Sheet

Thursday, December 17

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TAMPA BAY (6 - 7) at ST LOUIS (5 - 8) - 12/17/2015, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 148-187 ATS (-57.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 148-187 ATS (-57.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 106-147 ATS (-55.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 115-149 ATS (-48.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 2-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 2-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, December 19

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NY JETS (8 - 5) at DALLAS (4 - 9) - 12/19/2015, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in games played on turf this season.
DALLAS is 36-55 ATS (-24.5 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Sunday, December 20

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CHICAGO (5 - 8) at MINNESOTA (8 - 5) - 12/20/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 11-32 ATS (-24.2 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 14-30 ATS (-19.0 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
MINNESOTA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-2 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (6 - 7) at JACKSONVILLE (5 - 8) - 12/20/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
ATLANTA is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (6 - 7) at INDIANAPOLIS (6 - 7) - 12/20/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 5-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (8 - 5) at BALTIMORE (4 - 9) - 12/20/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (6 - 7) at WASHINGTON (6 - 7) - 12/20/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 16-29 ATS (-15.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 16-29 ATS (-15.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 78-107 ATS (-39.7 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 78-107 ATS (-39.7 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 78-107 ATS (-39.7 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 54-77 ATS (-30.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (3 - 10) at NEW ENGLAND (11 - 2) - 12/20/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
TENNESSEE is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 171-130 ATS (+28.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 55-34 ATS (+17.6 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (11 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (6 - 7) - 12/20/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (13 - 0) at NY GIANTS (6 - 7) - 12/20/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
CAROLINA is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
CAROLINA is 71-46 ATS (+20.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CAROLINA is 54-30 ATS (+21.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 79-44 ATS (+30.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 53-26 ATS (+24.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CAROLINA is 48-30 ATS (+15.0 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (3 - 10) at SEATTLE (8 - 5) - 12/20/2015, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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GREEN BAY (9 - 4) at OAKLAND (6 - 7) - 12/20/2015, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 170-121 ATS (+36.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 61-36 ATS (+21.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 57-33 ATS (+20.7 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 39-76 ATS (-44.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 30-55 ATS (-30.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 29-52 ATS (-28.2 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (5 - 8) at SAN DIEGO (3 - 10) - 12/20/2015, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) after playing on Monday night football since 1992.
MIAMI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 51-74 ATS (-30.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 39-16 ATS (+21.4 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in home games off a loss against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 2-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 2-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (10 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (8 - 5) - 12/20/2015, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 96-67 ATS (+22.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 48-28 ATS (+17.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 84-59 ATS (+19.1 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (10 - 3) at SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 9) - 12/20/2015, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games this season.
CINCINNATI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games this season.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road lined games this season.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, December 21

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DETROIT (4 - 9) at NEW ORLEANS (5 - 8) - 12/21/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 79-107 ATS (-38.7 Units) in road games since 1992.
DETROIT is 79-107 ATS (-38.7 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
DETROIT is 59-85 ATS (-34.5 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
DETROIT is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in road games in dome games since 1992.
DETROIT is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 23-45 ATS (-26.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in home games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 

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Week 15

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Trend Report
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Thursday, December 17

8:25 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing St. Louis
Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
St. Louis is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
St. Louis is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games


Saturday, December 19

8:25 PM
NY JETS vs. DALLAS
NY Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing Dallas
NY Jets are 7-17 SU in their last 24 games on the road
Dallas is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing NY Jets


Sunday, December 20

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Jacksonville is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games
Jacksonville is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 6 games when playing Carolina

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Houston is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 8 games at home
Indianapolis is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games at home

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. NEW ENGLAND
Tennessee is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New England
Tennessee is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing at home against Tennessee
New England is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Tennessee

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. WASHINGTON
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. BALTIMORE
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. MINNESOTA
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Chicago is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games

4:05 PM
GREEN BAY vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Oakland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

4:05 PM
CLEVELAND vs. SEATTLE
Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

4:25 PM
CINCINNATI vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

4:25 PM
DENVER vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Denver

4:25 PM
MIAMI vs. SAN DIEGO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games at home
San Diego is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Miami

8:30 PM
ARIZONA vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona


Monday, December 21

8:30 PM
DETROIT vs. NEW ORLEANS
Detroit is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
New Orleans is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games at home
 

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Tuesday, December 15




Cowboys not shutting down WR Bryant



Owner Jerry Jones concedes nothing despite a 4-9 start to the season for the Dallas Cowboys.


Jones said he can admit the chances for the Cowboys to reach the playoffs are "very, very slim" but as long as Dallas is mathematically alive for the postseason, no players are being shut down. Jones said that includes wide receiver Dez Bryant, who appears to still be favoring his surgically repaired foot.


The Cowboys play the New York Jets on Saturday.


"Shut him down? No," Jones told 105.3 FM in Dallas. "I hope their defense doesn't shut him down early, but no, not at all. He'll be a very important part of what we initiate and what we hope we're still doing in the second half and hopefully through the end of the ball game. We'll go balls out with Dez."


There is one shutdown at team headquarters: Jones and the Cowboys banned reporters from social media, eliminating all video, photographs and Twitter from the practice field or locker room.




QB Mallett joins Ravens


Move over Matt Schaub and Jimmy Clausen, make room for Ryan Mallett.


The Baltimore Ravens signed another former starting quarterback on Tuesday, bringing Mallett aboard for the final three weeks of the regular season.


Starting quarterback Joe Flacco is on injured reserve because of a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his knee and Schaub wasn't available in Week 14 because of a concussion.


That left Clausen at the controls against a nasty Seattle Seahawks defense that kept the Ravens stuck in neutral much of the day.


Mallett was released by the Houston Texans for repeat off-field incidents. He no-showed the day after being named the No. 2 quarterback in a competition for the starting job with Brian Hoyer and then missed the team's charter for a game in Miami after another switch sent him back to the bench following consecutive subpar starts.




Manning could start for Broncos this week


For the first time in four weeks, Denver Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak opted not to use his Monday press conference to declare Brock Osweiler starting quarterback for the next game.


Kubiak instead wants time to discuss the decision with the key parties, including vice president John Elway and Peyton Manning.


Manning may be back in the starting lineup this week but health will be a major factor.


Osweiler is 3-1 as the Broncos' starting quarterback, but Kubiak has said all along that Manning would be the starter when he is healthy. However, now Kubiak has to wait until later in the week to determine whether Manning is healthy enough to play.


"I've got to see where (Manning) is at," Kubiak said. "We've got to talk through his situation, where we're at, and talk to 'Greek' (head athletic trainer Steve Antonopulos)."


Manning, 39, has been sidelined with a variety of injuries, the most serious of which is a foot injury.




Luck might not return in 2015


Andrew Luck was cleared to upramp throwing on Monday, but ESPN reported the Indianapolis Colts doubt he will play again in 2015.


Luck said Monday he is not recovered from previous injury. Even so, he may be cleared to begin some light practice work on Wednesday, although no official word on his availability for practice has been announced.


Coach Chuck Pagano said Monday that he had nothing new to report about Luck's availability. Even if he begins to practice, that does not mean that Luck would be able to play Sunday against Houston.


Luck said that he has been told that his lacerated kidney must be fully healed before he can return to playing in a game. He doesn't feel like he is at that point right now.


Luck added that he will be back before the end of the regular season. He added that if cleared to play, he would be OK with practicing for three days and then playing on a Sunday.




Yates likely to be Texans' QB against Colts


HOUSTON - Houston Texans starting quarterback Brian Hoyer was officially diagnosed with a concussion after enduring a lot of punishment against the New England Patriots on Sunday night and is unlikely to play Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts.


Texans backup quarterback T.J. Yates is preparing to start his second game of the season.


Concerns about Hoyer for the remainder of the season have heightened into a long-term issue due to the severity and frequency of the concussions.


Hoyer remained under the NFL concussion protocol Monday. Hoyer suffered the fifth concussion of his life and the second of his career against the Patriots when he was visibly shaken up while being sacked five times and was taken to the locker room for examination.


"I would say it'd be doubtful that he would play in the game on Sunday," Texans coach Bill O'Brien said of Hoyer. "It wasn't just a concussion. I think he strained his neck. He had a wrist problem. He took a beating. I think they were checking him out for all various injuries."




49ers G Boone's season may be over


SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- Starting left guard Alex Boone might have played his last game as a San Francisco 49er. The 28-year-old suffered a knee injury in Sunday's 24-10 loss at Cleveland, forcing him to leave the game for good in the third quarter.


Boone underwent an MRI on the knee Monday. And while the 49ers didn't immediately announce the results, even a sprain could result in the veteran missing the final three weeks of the season.


Boone, who held out during training camp last season in order to get a new deal, is in the final year of a two-year, $6 million contract. He will be an unrestricted free agent at season's end.


--While Boone might be out for the year, the season has officially ended for starting running back Carlos Hyde, who was placed on injured reserve late last week.




Redskins TE Carrier out for season


ASHBURN, Va. -- Washington Redskins tight end Derek Carrier tore ligaments in his right knee on Sunday during a 24-21 victory over the Chicago Bears and is out for the season.


Carrier tore the anterior cruciate and medial collateral ligaments in his right knee after catch a pass from quarterback Kirk Cousins with 2:37 left in the first quarter.


He was tackled and fell to the turf in pain. Carrier hobbled off the field with help from Redskins personnel, but was eventually carted to the locker room.


Carrier is the third Washington tight end to sustain a season-ending knee injury this year. Starter Niles Paul (fractured/dislocated left ankle) and Logan Paulsen (Torn ligament, right toe) didn't make it out of training camp.


Washington finished the game with Jordan Reed as its lone true tight end.



Bengals now must rely on McCarron



CINCINNATI -- On Sunday, the Cincinnati Bengals feared the worst.


But after visiting with a hand specialist on Monday, quarterback Andy Dalton learned his fractured right thumb won't require surgery.


Dalton will remain in a cast and be evaluated weekly during the healing process.


"That's about as good an outcome right now as we could expect," said coach Marvin Lewis. "He won't play this week. As we move forward we'll see how he is each and every week and it'll be up to Andy and the doctors."


Dalton injured his thumb making a tackle following an interception in the first quarter of Sunday's 33-20 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.


AJ McCarron replaced Dalton and passed for 280 yards and two touchdowns.


McCarron played well overall despite throwing a pair of interceptions, one of which was returned 23 yards for a touchdown by Steelers corner William Gay.
 

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Short Sheet

Week 15

Thursday - Dec, 17

Tampa Bay at St Louis, 8:25 ET
Tampa Bay: 18-6 UNDER on road after allowing 99 or less rush yds in 3 games
St Louis: 65-94 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders


Saturday - Dec, 19

NY Jets at Dallas, 8:25 ET
New York: 6-3 ATS off 2 or more consecutive unders
Dallas: 1-7 ATS in games played on turf


Sunday - Dec, 20

Chicago at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Chicago: 11-22 ATS against conference opponents
Minnesota: 8-2 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders

Atlanta at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 0-8 ATS off a division game
Jacksonville: 9-1 ATS at home after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 2 games

Houston at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Houston: 5-16 ATS in dome games
Indianapolis: 6-1 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games

Kansas City at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Kansas City: 12-2 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
Baltimore: 6-0 UNDER in December games

Buffalo at Washington, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 19-10 UNDER in all lined games
Washington: 1-8 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3

Tennessee at New England, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 4-14 ATS after playing their last game on the road
New England: 14-4 ATS at home where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5

Arizona at Philadelphia, 8:30 ET
Arizona: 9-1 ATS after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game
Philadelphia: 0-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins

Carolina at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 8-2 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins
New York: 66-36 UNDER after having lost 2 out of their last 3

Cleveland at Seattle, 4:05 ET
Cleveland: 20-38 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6
Seattle: 8-1 ATS after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points

Green Bay at Oakland, 4:05 ET
Green Bay: 13-5 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49
Oakland: 19-37 ATS off a upset win as an underdog

Miami at San Diego, 4:25 ET
Miami: 39-16 ATS against AFC West division opponents
San Diego: 2-10 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Denver at Pittsburgh, 4:25 ET
Denver: 1-8 ATS off a division game
Pittsburgh: 9-1 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs

Cincinnati at San Francisco, 4:25 ET
Cincinnati: 10-2 ATS in all lined games
San Francisco: 0-9 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42


Monday - Dec, 21

Detroit at New Orleans, 8:30 ET
Detroit: 3-12 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game
New Orleans: 35-20 OVER against NFC North division opponents
 

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Thursday's Top Action
December 15, 2015


TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (6-7) at ST. LOUIS RAMS (5-8)
Kickoff: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: St. Louis -1.0, Total: 41.5


The Buccaneers will be looking to keep their slim playoff chances alive when they face the Rams in St. Louis on Thursday.


Tampa Bay dropped a brutal home game against New Orleans on Sunday and the team will like need to win out in order to have a shot at making the postseason. The Bucs lost the game 24-17 as six-point favorites, but they have still won three of their past five both SU and ATS. The Rams, meanwhile, had lost five straight games before taking down the Lions 21-14 as three-point home underdogs on Sunday. St. Louis rushed for 203 yards in that game and will need to punish the Bucs on the ground in this game.


Both teams have gone Under frequently as of late, as the Buccaneers have gone Under the total in three straight and the Rams have gone Under the total in four straight.


Over the past three seasons, the Rams are 2-0 both SU and ATS when facing the Buccaneers. They are also 3-1 SU against the Bucs when playing in St. Louis since 1992. One thing favoring Tampa Bay coming into this game is the fact that the team is facing a Rams squad that is 23-39 ATS after gaining 150 or less passing yards in its previous game since 1992. The Rams are, however, 18-4 ATS in home games versus teams that are averaging 5.65 or more yards per play in the second half of the season since 1992.


The Buccaneers really needed a victory over the Saints last game, but they did not play well enough on either side of the ball. Defensively, Tampa allowed New Orleans to run the ball far too successfully. Tim Hightower gashed the Buccaneers defense and they will need to make sure they correct those issues with Todd Gurley coming up next.


Offensively, Jameis Winston will need to be a lot better as well. Winston threw for just 182 yards against the league’s worst defense a week ago and the team needed him to be more of a playmaker in that loss. His receivers dropped a number of catchable passes, but he still must find more ways to put his team in a better position to win.


One thing that Tampa might consider doing is pounding the ball with Doug Martin. Martin has rushed for 1,214 yards and five touchdowns this season, but he only got 11 carries against the Saints. He rushed for 81 yards and a touchdown on those limited touches and it was inexplicable how little usage he received in the second half.


The Rams were able to snap their losing streak and it likely would not have been possible without Todd Gurley. The rookie was a monster on the ground, rushing for 140 yards and two touchdowns on just 18 carries versus the Lions. Gurley did leave the game in the fourth quarter with a knee injury, but he is supposed to be ready to go on Thursday. He’ll be looking forward to facing this Tampa defense that really struggled against the run a week ago.


Defensively, the Rams will need to force Jameis Winston to make some mistakes. One player that could help do that is Trumaine Johnson. The corner has five interceptions on the year and always seems to be in the right place at the right time. A big game from him could really help St. Louis on Thursday.
 

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Preview: Buccaneers (6-7) at Rams (5-8)
Date: December 17, 2015 8:25 PM EDT

The St. Louis Rams are only concerned with winning their final home game of the season. Whether it's their last one ever in the "Gateway to the West" remains to be seen.


With the lingering cloud of relocation growing darker, the Rams look to finish with a winning record at home and further damage the playoff hopes of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday night.


While owner Stan Kroenke still hopes to move the franchise to Los Angeles after this season, coach Jeff Fisher continues to publicly downplay the situation.


"It has not crossed my mind," Fisher said. "As I've said to you often times throughout this process, my focus is on this football team and the next game. I'm sure all those things will be addressed once the season's over ... that's not an issue with me.


"Our goal is to get back-to-back home wins in our final game here this year."


The Rams (5-8) are second-to-last in the NFL with an average attendance of 52,560 for a venue that seats 66,000. A total of 51,202 tickets were distributed Sunday, but far fewer people were on hand to witness them snap a five-game skid with the 21-14 victory over Detroit.


The franchise, which moved from L.A. to St. Louis for the 1995 season, could learn its fate as early as next month when league owners meet in Houston on Jan. 12-13.


For the time being, the aim is to build on last week's triumph and finish 5-3 at the dome.


'Players are working hard, they're doing everything we ask of them," Fisher said. 'The wins didn't come but it finally did, so it was rewarding.'


The NFL's 31st-ranked offense averaged 10.8 points and 275.0 yards during the five-game slide, but with Rob Boras replacing the fired Frank Cignetti as offensive coordinator, the Rams totaled 317 yards and rushed for a season-high 203.


'We had prepared all week and (Boras) was on top of it," Fisher said. 'I thought he was in really good rhythm and he was good with situational-type stuff. He's just going to get better at it.'


Especially if rookie Todd Gurley can perform like Sunday when he rushed for 140 yards and two touchdowns on 16 attempts. Gurley, 25 yards shy of joining Eric Dickerson (1983) and Jerome Bettis (1993) as the only 1,000-yard rookie rushers in franchise history, averaged 3.1 per carry while gaining 171 in the previous four weeks. He "banged up" his knee Sunday but is expected to be fine.


Case Keenum was mostly serviceable going 14 of 22 with 124 yards with an interception after missing the last two weeks with a concussion.


The Rams held the Lions to 331 yards after giving up 524 to Arizona the week before and yielding an average of 27.8 points in the previous four games.


St. Louis has allowed an average of 14.3 points and 310.3 yards while beating Tampa Bay (6-7) each of the last three seasons.


In position to move above .500 for the first time since November 2012, the Bucs fell 24-17 at home to New Orleans on Sunday for its second loss in three weeks. Tampa Bay, which last made the playoffs in 2007, is two games behind wild-card holders Seattle and Minnesota in the NFC. A loss Thursday and wins by the Seahawks and Vikings this weekend would eliminate the Bucs from playoff contention.


'I think it's a part of our growth as a football team," coach Lovie Smith said. "The same goals we had are still there. Nothing has been decided, so we're still talking about the same things."


Smith and his team are glad they have a quick turnaround to focus on the task ahead and not wallow in the recent past.


'That's exactly how you want to do it," Smith said. "When you're disappointed you want to make it right, get a chance to come back.


'We've had some disappointments this year. What I've seen from our football team is we have bounced back. So to be able to play that game a little bit earlier, that's a good thing.'


What needs to be better is an offense that recorded 291 yards against a New Orleans defense that yielded a league-worst 425.2 per contest coming into the weekend.


Jameis Winston became the 13th rookie to pass for 3,000 yards and didn't throw an interception but went 18 of 32 and failed to complete 57 percent of his passes for the fifth time in seven games. Second in the NFL with 1,214 rushing yards, Doug Martin averaged 7.4 per carry while gaining 81 but matched a season low with 11 carries.


The Bucs gave up 388 yards to the Saints, allowed them to go 12 of 17 on third down and hold the ball for the final 4:13. They've also forced one turnover in the last three games after failing to do so Sunday.


Tampa Bay increased its NFL-leading penalty total to 125 with eight against the Saints.


'I think we're learning that it takes every little thing to beat teams in the NFL," center Joe Hawley said. "Nobody is easy. They're all getting paid a lot of money, they're all really good players. So you have to bring your best every week.'
 

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THURSDAY, DECEMBER 17


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


TB at STL 08:25 PM

TB +1.0 BLOW OUT


O 41.5 DOUBLE PLAY
 

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Public Fades - Week 15
December 17, 2015


One of the hardest things to handicap at the end of any sports season is which teams have packed it in and which teams that are giving it their all in spite of being out of playoff contention. In this week’s edition of “Public Fades,” we’ll take a look at two NFC squads that are on the outside looking in from a postseason perspective that will try to spoil the playoff dreams of their opponents.


Bears at Vikings (-5 ½, 43) – 1:00 PM EST


Minnesota still controls its own destiny for a playoff position in the NFC at 8-5, while sitting one game behind Green Bay for the top spot in the NFC North. The Vikings have hit the skids lately by losing three of their past four contests, all to teams that are likely headed to the postseason (Cardinals, Seahawks, and Packers). Mike Zimmer’s team returns home from last Thursday’s 23-20 setback at Arizona, as Minnesota tries to improve on a 4-2 mark at TCF Bank Stadium.


Chicago has been awful at home this season, owning a dreadful 1-5 record at Soldier Field following close losses to San Francisco and Washington. However, John Fox’s club has performed better on the highway by owning a respectable 4-2 mark, including victories at Green Bay, St. Louis, San Diego, and Kansas City as an underdog. The Bears are playing with revenge after losing on a last-second field goal to the Vikings in Week 8 by a 23-20 count, the only underdog loss in their previous eight opportunities.


So why back the Bears?


VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson makes a case for fading the Vikings, “Minnesota gave a commendable effort Thursday against Arizona in a 23-20 loss, but the defense remains banged up with four starters missing last week’s game. Minnesota’s offense has failed to top 20 points in any of the last four games as well with the unit ranking 30th in the league in yards per game.”


“The Vikings are 4-2 S/U and ATS at home this season, but they have lost outright in the past two home games and this will be the biggest favorite spread for Minnesota at home since hosting the Bears last December. Chicago has won and covered in eight of the last 12 meetings with the Vikings and this is a Bears team still playing hard with some close misses separating Chicago from a much stronger season,” Nelson says.


NFL expert Antony Dinero feels the Bears had the Vikings on the ropes the first time around and should be able to come through on Sunday, “Although the Vikings are in the driver’s seat for a playoff bid, a divisional game against the healthy Bears will present a number of challenges. Chicago had Minnesota down 20-13 inside of two minutes the first time they played and has Alshon Jeffery plugged in again following an injury-plagued season. With key defensive starters Linval Joseph, Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith all having missed last week’s game due to injuries, the Vikes appear vulnerable.”

Falcons at Jaguars (-3, 49) – 1:00 PM EST



Two months ago, Atlanta owned a 5-0 record and a playoff spot in the NFC seemed like a slam dunk. Dan Quinn’s team has fallen apart since that unblemished start by losing seven of its last eight games with the only victory coming back in Week 7 at Tennessee. The Falcons are coming off their worst loss of the season last Sunday in a 38-0 defeat against undefeated Carolina. The offense has let down Atlanta during this cold eight-game stretch, scoring 21 points or less during each of these contests.


Jacksonville was left for dead following a 1-5 start, but the Jaguars are still in the mix for the AFC South title with three weeks remaining. The Jags are coming off their most productive offensive game in franchise history by dropping 51 points in a 51-16 blowout of the Colts last Sunday. Gus Bradley’s squad connected on an 80-yard touchdown pass, a punt return for a score, and a fumble return for a touchdown, while putting up 42 points in the second half. Prior to last week’s rout, Jacksonville’s first four victories came by a combined 14 points, as the Jags improved to 5-1-1 ATS the past seven contests.


So why back the Falcons?


Nelson feels the Jaguars are receiving plenty of respect even though the numbers don’t translate to success, “No one can fault a downtrodden franchise finally showing some life for pouring it on, but the statistics are now a bit inflated and Jacksonville is an elevated favorite this week. The Jaguars have been a favorite just eight times since 2011 with half of those instances coming this season, splitting the last four home games as a slight favorite. This is still a Jaguars team that has won just a third of its home games the past five seasons.”


For the exception of last week’s blowout at Carolina, Nelson mentions that Atlanta has been competitive during this losing stretch, “Turnovers and late game management have been issues for the Falcons but four of the last six losses have come by four or fewer points as most of the games have been close. This is a rare third straight road game for Atlanta, but all of the games have been in the southeast for minimal travel and the Falcons have covered in four of the last six games as a road underdog going back to last season, winning outright in three of those contests.”
 

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Vegas Money Moves - Week 15
December 18, 2015


Last week the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Steelers (8-5) as 4.5-point home favorites over the Broncos (10-3) in their Early Week 15 lines suggesting they had Pittsburgh rated 1.5-points higher than the Broncos. Following the Week 14 games, that rating differential doubled.

“The Steelers would be -3 or -3.5 on a neutral field so -6 at Pittsburgh was the right number,” said SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay, who re-opened the game Sunday night at -6. “I actually think -5 is closer to being the right number. Minus-7 might be a little excessive.”

But that’s where his betting public forced the number. On Friday morning the SuperBook moved Pittsburgh from -6.5 to -7 EVEN while most of the city sits at -6.5.

“The Steelers rating has climbed just over the past week while Denver’s has dropped. The Broncos have a good defense, but its offense can’t run or protect the quarterback. They scored 12 last week and 17 the week before against two lousy defenses (Oakland, San Diego).”

Pittsburgh has the league’s No. 2 offense at 404 yards-per-game while Denver has the No. 1 ranked defense allowing only 272 yards per game, which is 35 yards less a game than No. 2 ranked Seattle.


Last week's game at Denver was a complete mystery. The Raiders, down 12-0 at halftime, ended up winning 15-12 with only 126 yards of total offense. The Broncos threw the ball 51 times and ran it only 21 times for 34 yards, an odd ratio for a team that led most of the game. And, Oakland's Khalil Mack sacked Broncos QB Brock Osweiler five times.

“I’m not all that surprised with the Raiders winning last week just because (Jack) Del Rio knows the Broncos so well and it was a division game; also the fact that Denver‘s offense hasn’t been able to score. When you have to settle for four field goals instead getting at least one touchdown, you’ve got problems and it usually comes back to haunt you.”

Peyton Manning had 17 interceptions before sitting due to a battle with planters fascitis, and Osweiler has only three in five games, but Osweiler is extremely conservative and the book is still out on him in regards to his true rating.

“I think Osweiler is just average,” said Kornegay.

Kornegay was talking on the phone driving into work Friday morning and all of sudden he started chuckling. “Funny, the car I just pulled up behind at the stop light has a Broncos helmet on the back window.”

Kornegay, who is a die-hard Broncos supporter, has been impressed with the Steelers lately and says that no team in the AFC is going to want to face them in the playoffs. Right now the Steelers are outside looking in at the playoff picture with the Chiefs (8-5) and Jets (8-5) sitting as the prospective No. 5 and No. 6 seeds.

“This Steelers offense is pretty scary and while Denver does have a good defense, its not like they slowed good QBs down like Tom Brady. Ben Roethlisberger and his core of receivers have been clicking better than any offense over the past five weeks."

Pittsburgh has scored 30 points or more in its last five games, with the only loss coming at Seattle, 39-30. Big Ben put up 465 yards passing on the "Legion of Boom." It's in those recent offensive numbers that has seen Pittsburgh rating rise.

So far this has been the most wagered game at the SuperBook.

“This is definitely going to be the largest wagered game of the weekend. Arizona and Philadelphia Sunday night will be a big one as well just because its an isolated game, but we’ll handle more on the Broncos-Steelers.”

Here’s a look at all the Early Week 15 numbers posted at the SuperBook last Wednesday and where the line has gone to as of Friday afternoon.


The movement on each of the games is due to market adjustments on Sunday, rating adjustments following Week 14 results, injuries and then actual cash wagered.

N.Y. Jets at Dallas (Saturday): The Jets opened -3 EVEN and now it's a steady -3.5 across town with William Hill books sitting at -3 -125.

Chicago at Minnesota: The Vikings opened -4 and they’re now -6 after two consecutive awful Chicago losses at home (49ers, Redskins). MGM and William Hill are at -5.5.

Atlanta at Jacksonville: This one opened at pick ’em and it’s a steady -3 across town. The Falcons have failed to cover their last nine games after starting 4-0 ATS. The Jaguars have gone 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games.

Houston at Indianapolis: Off the board due to QB injuries for both teams. The Colts are currently -2 with Matt Hasseleck expected to start under center. TJ Yates will start at QB for Houston.

Kansas City at Baltimore: The Chiefs opened -5 and it's up to -7. Matt Schaub practiced Thursday, but was still in discomfort and there’s a possibility Jimmy Clausen will start at QB for the Ravens, which is a significant drop off.

Buffalo at Washington: The Bills opened -1 and it's up to -1.5. CG Technology books have the high number at -2.

Tennessee at New England: The Patriots opened -10 and its now -14 with Station books at a high of -14.5. The Titans have gone 0-4-1 ATS in its last five. Tom Brady has tight end Rob Gronkonski back in the lineup, which is obviously huge.

Arizona at Philadelphia: The Cardinals opened -3.5 and it’s still there. CG Tech books have the high number at -4.

Carolina at N.Y. Giants: The Panthers opened -3.5 and now it’s -4 with several other books at -4.5.

Cleveland at Seattle: The Seahawks opened -13.5 and now it’s up to -15. There’s an 80 percent chance of rain for this one. Seattle is still without running back Marshawn Lynch, but have won by an average score of 35-14 over its past four games (4-0 ATS).

Green Bay at Oakland: The Packers opened -3 (-120) and they’re still there.

Miami at San Diego: The Chargers opened -1 and now it’s -1.5. San Diego has gone 1-11 ATS in its last 12 home games. The Dolphisn have gone 1-6 ATS in its last seven and 0-9 in its last nine December games.

Denver at Pittsburgh: The Steelers opened -4.5 and were re-opened Sunday at -6 and bet up to -6.5 on Wednesday. Friday morning it was bet up to -7.

Cincinnati at San Francisco: The Bengals opened -7 when QB Andy Dalton and TE Tyler Eifert were expected to play, and now with A.J. McCarron expected to start at QB and Eifert 'doubtful' the Bengals are sitting at -6. Interesting.

Detroit at New Orleans: The Saints opened -1.5 and it’s now -3 EVEN.

WESTGATE LAS VEGAS SUPERBOOK
EARLY NFL WEEK 16 NUMBERS (POSTED WEDNESDAY)


THURSDAY, DECEMBER 24, 2015
CHARGERS
RAIDERS -6.5

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 26, 2015
REDSKINS
EAGLES -4

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 27, 2015
GIANTS
VIKINGS -3 -120

BEARS
BUCS -3 EVEN

PANTHERS -6.5
FALCONS

COWBOYS
BILLS -5.5

JAGUARS
SAINTS -3.5

49ERS
LIONS -7

BROWNS
CHIEFS -11.5

COLTS
DOLPHINS OFF

PATRIOTS -3
JETS

TEXANS
TITANS OFF

PACKERS
CARDINALS -4.5

RAMS
SEAHAWKS -14

STEELERS
RAVENS OFF



MONDAY, DECEMBER 28, 2015
BENGALS
BRONCOS -4
 

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Week 15 Tip Sheet
December 18, 2015

Texans at Colts (-2, 42) – 1:00 PM EST


The top two teams in the AFC South square off in a pseudo-playoff game as the winner is in a prime spot to claim the division title. Houston (6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS) climbed above the .500 mark two weeks ago after winning its fourth straight game, but Bill O’Brien’s team has gone backwards the last two weeks. The Texans lost to the Bills and Patriots, as the defense allowed 57 points in the two defeats after giving up just 36 points during the four-game winning streak. T.J. Yates will be starting at quarterback for the Texans, who have lost six straight meetings with the Colts, including a 27-20 home defeat back in Week 5.


The Colts (6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS) will likely be turning to their third starting quarterback this season, as Andrew Luck is still sidelined and Matt Hasselbeck is nursing a rib injury. Former Titans’ signal-caller Charlie Whitehurst could be called upon to start if Hasselbeck can’t go, as the Colts are coming off consecutive blowout losses on the road at Pittsburgh and Jacksonville. Indianapolis got outscored 96-20 in those two defeats, while allowing 51 points in last week’s loss at Jacksonville to suffer its first division loss in four tries. Chuck Pagano’s squad has struggled in the favorite role this season by posting a 1-5 ATS mark when laying points.


Bills (- 1 ½, 44) at Redskins – 1:00 PM EST


Another matchup between below .500 teams takes place at FedEx Field as both Buffalo and Washington are in must-win spots. The Redskins (6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS) begin Week 15 in a three-way tie atop the NFC East alongside the Giants and Eagles, as Washington travels to Philadelphia next week. Jay Gruden’s club became the final team in the NFL to win a road game this season following five losses on the highway in last Sunday’s 24-21 triumph at Chicago as four-point underdogs. Kirk Cousins has thrown at least one touchdown pass in all 13 starts this season, while coming off a 300-yard performance at Chicago. The final hurdle the Redskins have to jump is winning consecutive games, which they have yet to do this season.


Buffalo (6-7 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) has no shot at winning the AFC East title, but Rex Ryan’s team needs a miracle in the final three weeks to qualify for the postseason. The Bills suffered a brutal loss at Philadelphia last week to fall two games behind the Chiefs, Jets, and Steelers for a Wild Card spot. Buffalo lost its third consecutive road game last Sunday and dropped to 0-2 against NFC foes. The Bills have cashed the ‘under’ in three of the past four games away from Orchard Park, while the ‘under’ has hit in four off six contests with a total listed at 44 or higher.


Panthers (-4, 48) at Giants – 1:00 PM EST


Three games remain as Carolina (13-0 SU, 10-3 ATS) looks to become the second team in NFL history to finish 16-0 in the regular season. The Panthers pulled off their first shutout of the season in last Sunday’s 38-0 blanking of the Falcons as 8 ½-point favorites. Ron Rivera’s club has covered in four of five opportunities as a road favorite with the lone ATS defeat coming in a 41-38 victory at New Orleans two weeks ago as 5 ½-point chalk. Carolina has cashed the ‘over’ in four of the last five away contests, while going 8-3 to the ‘over’ in the past 11 games overall.


The NFC East race will come down to the wire as the Giants (6-7 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) try to avoid a fifth loss this season while holding a lead late in the fourth quarter. Last Monday night, New York rallied past Miami, 31-24 thanks to a pair of second half touchdown connections between Eli Manning and Odell Beckham, Jr. The Giants have lost each of their last two home games by a combined four points to the Jets and Patriots, as Tom Coughlin’s club owns a dreadful 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS record as a home underdog since 2013. New York is hosting Carolina for the first time since opening week of the 2010 season when the Giants defeated the Panthers, 31-18 as 5 ½-point favorites.


Packers (-3 ½, 48) at Raiders – 4:05 PM EST


The NFC North race is starting to open as Green Bay (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) owns a one-game lead over Minnesota heading into the final three weeks. The Packers won their second straight since a 1-4 run in November after beating the Cowboys in Week 14 by a 28-7 count as six-point favorites. Green Bay’s rushing game finally woke up by racking up 230 yards on 44 carries, highlighted by Eddie Lacy’s season-high 124 yards. Mike McCarthy’s squad is riding a 7-2 run to the ‘under’ the last nine games, but each of those ‘overs’ came away from Lambeau Field.


One of the top turnarounds in the NFL this season has come from the Bay Area, as the Raiders (6-7 SU, 7-6 ATS) have already eclipsed their season win total of 5 ½. The clinching victory to cash those tickets came at Denver last Sunday in a 15-12 triumph as six-point underdogs. The Raiders erased a 12-0 halftime deficit by outscoring the Broncos, 15-0 in the second half, while Oakland’s defense limited Denver to four field goals. Jack Del Rio’s team has lost four of six games at the O.Co Coliseum this season, while the only home victory over a squad currently above .500 coming in Week 8 over the Jets.


Broncos at Steelers (-7, 44 ½) – 4:25 PM EST


Denver’s offense was held out of the end zone in last week’s 15-12 loss to Oakland, but the Broncos (10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS) still possess a two-game advantage over the Chiefs in the AFC West race. In four weeks since Brock Osweiler took over for Peyton Manning at quarterback, the Broncos have produced 17 points or less three times, but the defense has allowed their opponents to score 15 points or fewer three times. Denver has taken care of business on the highway this season, winning six of seven road contests, while Gary Kubiak’s club has won and covered all three times in the underdog role.


Six weeks ago, the Steelers (8-5 SU, 8-4-1 ATS) were teetering at 4-4, but Pittsburgh has won four of its past five games. Mike Tomlin’s squad prevented Cincinnati from clinching the AFC North title last Sunday in a 33-20 triumph over the Bengals as short underdogs. Pittsburgh has topped the 30-point mark in five consecutive contests, while the defense intercepted Cincinnati’s quarterbacks three times last week. The Steelers are hosting the Broncos for the first time since 2006, as Denver has won four of the past five meetings.
 

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Jets travel to Dallas
December 17, 2015




NEW YORK JETS (8-5) at DALLAS COWBOYS (4-9)
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: New York -3.5, Total: 42


The struggling Cowboys will be hosting a Jets team that is hungry for a chance to play in the postseason on Saturday.


New York looked like it was ready to fade away in the AFC playoff race, but the team has won three straight games. The Jets dominated the Titans in New York in Week 14, winning 30-8 as an eight-point home favorite. They are now 2-0-1 ATS in their past three contests and their last two games have gone Under the total.


The Cowboys, meanwhile, lost 28-7 in Green Bay last week. Dallas has won two of its past three games both SU and ATS. The team has also gone Under the total in its previous two games heading into this contest.


The Jets and Cowboys have met just five times since 1992. Dallas is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in those contests and three of the five have gone Under the total. Favoring the Jets in this one is the fact that the Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in home games after failing to cover in two of their past three games over the last three seasons. The Cowboys are, however, an impressive 33-17 ATS after a loss by 14 or more points since 1992.


The Jets were supposed to be relying on their defense this season, but they have actually been explosive on the offensive side of the ball over the past few weeks. Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing the best football of his life for New York, throwing for nine touchdowns and zero interceptions over the past three weeks. He has thrown for 263 yards or more in each of those games and will look to stay hot with a big performance on Saturday. He should be okay as long as he is giving his receivers a chance to make plays.


Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall have been one of the best pass-catching duos in the league this season, as Decker has 66 receptions for 875 yards and nine touchdowns and Marshall has 89 receptions for 1,187 yards and 11 touchdowns.


As long as the Jets can stop the run then they should be victorious in this game. That should not be a problem, as New York is allowing just 78.9 rushing yards per game (1st in NFL).


The Cowboys had high hopes this season, but a series of injuries has left Matt Cassel as the team’s starting quarterback. Cassel has not thrown a touchdown pass since Nov. 26 and he just is not getting the job done for Dallas. His completion percentage was 44.8% against the Packers and if he is not more effective on Saturday then he will likely lose his starting job.


The one thing that can keep the Cowboys in this game is the play of Darren McFadden. Dallas has been relying heavily on the running game and McFadden has answered the call, rushing for 798 yards with three touchdowns on the year. Not much was expected of him before the year, but he has been the least of Dallas’ concerns.
 

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