Cnotes National Football League Week # 14 Rated Plays - Trends - News Etc. !!

[CNOTES]

Betting Recap - Week 13
December 8, 2015



Overall Notes


NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 13 RESULTS


Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 13-3
Against the Spread 10-5-1


Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 5-11
Against the Spread 4-11-1


Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 9-7

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Eagles (+9, ML +350) at Patriots, 35-28
49ers (+6, ML +240) at Bears, 26-20 (OT)


The largest favorites to cover
Steelers (-10) vs. Colts, 45-10
Bengals (-7.5) at Browns, 37-3


Road Warriors

-- The Arizona Cardinals picked up another road win, topping the St. Louis Rams by a 27-3 score. They avenged a 24-22 loss in the desert back in Week 4. The Cardinals improved to 6-1 SU on the road and they're an impressive 5-2 ATS. They have won four straight away from Arizona, last losing Oct. 18 in Pittsburgh. The Cardinals face only one more road game this season, a trip to Philadelphia Dec. 20 in Week 15.
Tampa Bay Bucks


-- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers posted another win at home, dropping the division rival Atlanta Falcons by a 23-19 score. The Bucs have come alive at home, going 3-1 SU/ATS over their past four home dates, and they are also an impressive 6-2 ATS over their past eight games overall. Total bettors have also gravitated to the Bucs, as the 'under' has cashed in each of the past two games, and three of their past four.


AFC vs. NFC


-- The AFC and NFC met just twice in Week 13, and it was an even 1-1 SU/ATS split, with road teams each going 2-0 SU/ATS. The New York Giants probably should have picked up the win, but they blew yet another fourth quarter lead and allowed the New York Jets to win in overtime, 23-20. The other AFC-NFC battle was a stunner, as the Philadelphia Eagles came out of nowhere to win on the road against the New England Patriots, 35-28. The Eagles entered the game 0-3 SU/ATS. Perhaps they should consider joining the AFC East, as the Eagles are 2-1 SU/ATS against that division and 3-6 SU/ATS against everyone else.


-- The 'over/under' split 1-1 in two AFC vs. NFC matchups in Week 13, and the 'under' is still 26-13-1 (67.6%) in the past 40 over the past 10 weeks. For the season, the 'under' is 30-15-2 (67.6%) in intraconference matchups this season.


Total Recall


-- For the second consecutive week the 'over' edged out the 'under' 9-7 in Week 13. The 'under' was 5-4 in the early afternoon games on Sunday, but the 'over' dominated in the late-afternoon and Sunday night games, going 3-1. There were nine divisional games, and the 'under' topped the 'over' 5-4, with the Dallas Cowboys nipping the Washington Redskins in the Monday Night game in a low-scoring affair to tilt the scales in favor of the under.


-- There were five games with a total of 43 points on the board in Week 13, a very popular line. The 'under' went 3-2 in such games. The lowest total on the board was in the Houston Texans-Buffalo Bills (42), and the 'over' cashed in the 30-21 Buffalo victory. The two games with the highest total on the board, 50 1/2, each hit the 'over', as did the next highest total (49 1/2) on the board in the Eagles-Pats game.


-- The Vikings were annihilated at home by a 38-7 score at the hands of the Seahawks. The 'under' was 4-0-1 in their past five games, and 9-1-1 in 11 games overall, but a Seattle field goal with 8:00 left in the game pushed the total just over the mark. The Seahawks are normally known for their defense, but the 'over' is a perfect 4-0 in their past four games.


-- The 'over' was 2-1 in three primetime games in Week 13. Officially, the 'over' is still just 14-22-1 (38.9%) through 37 games under the lights. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.


Injury Report


-- Broncos RB C.J. Anderson (ankle) turned an ankle in the win in San Diego, and TE Vernon Davis (concussion) was knocked out with a concussion. Broncos LB Danny Trevathan (concussion) was knocked out with a concussion, but not before he scored a defensive touchdown.


-- Browns WRs Travis Benjamin (shoulder) and Marlon Moore (ribs) were each forced to leave early against the Bengals due to injuries.


-- Colts QB Matt Hasselbeck (shoulder) was dinged in the blowout loss in Pittsburgh Sunday night and his status for Week 14 is uncertain.


-- Dolphins WR Kenny Stills (ankle) rolled an ankle in the win against the Ravens and his status is uncertain going forward.


-- 49ers LB NaVorro Bowman (shoulder, finger) was forced out early, and TE Vance McDonald (concussion) also was unable to return and is in the concussion protocol.


-- Jaguars WR Rashad Greene (shoulder) left the shootout loss in Nashville against the Titans due to a shoulder ailment.


-- Ravens TE Crockett Gillmore (back) was forced out of the Week 13 loss in Miami due to a back injury.


-- The Vikings lost a pair of key defensive members when LB Anthony Barr (hand, groin) suffered a pair of injuries and SS Harrison Smith (knee) also left early.

Looking Ahead


-- The Saints head to Tampa to take on the Buccaneers. New Orleans is 2-5 ATS in their past seven road games, and 1-5 ATS in their past six contests on grass, while going 1-3-1 ATS in their past five games overall. The Bucs have covered six of the past eight, and they're 5-1 ATS in their past six on grass. In addition, they have covered five of their past six divisional games, and they're a perfect 4-0 ATS in their past four against teams with a losing overall record. In this series, the under is 6-1 in the past seven in Tampa, and 11-3 in the past 14 meetings overall. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the past five, and the Saints are 1-4 ATS in their past five against the Bucs.


-- The Steelers have covered each of their past eight games in the month of December, and they're 11-3 ATS in their past 14 games against a teams with a winning overall record. They're also 5-2 ATS in their past seven road games, and 11-5-1 ATS in their past 17 games overall. The Bengals have cashed in four straight against teams with a winning record, and they're 7-0 ATS in their past seven home games against a team with a winning road mark. The Bengals are also 8-1 ATS in their past nine against AFC foes, and 19-6-2 ATS in their past 27 home games. The 'under' has been the overwhelming trend for both sides lately, going 4-0-1 in Pittsburgh's past five against divisional foes, and 5-1 in their past six on the road. The under is also 11-4-1 in their past 16. The under is 5-1 in Cincinnati's past six, and 5-1 in their past six divisional games. The under is 6-2 in their past eight meetings, too.


-- The Colts head down to Jacksonville to battle the Jaguars. Indy is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings, and 6-2 ATS in their past eight trips to Northeast Florida. The road team is also 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings. Indy edged Jacksonville 16-13 in overtime in Week 4, but it was the Jaguars covering a four-point number.


-- The Chargers are a train wreck, going 3-14 ATS in their past 17 games against AFC foes, and they're also 1-10 ATS in theri past 11 divisional games. The Bolts are also 1-5 ATS in their past six against teams with a winning overall record. Kansas City has covered five of their past six AFC West battles, and they're a perfect 6-0 ATS in their past six. The Chiefs have covered eight of their past 10 against losing teams, and 9-3 ATS in their past 12 home games. San Diego is 0-4 ATS in their past four meetings with Kansas City, including a 33-3 Chiefs win in San Diego Nov. 22.


-- The Falcons have failed to cover four straight road games, and each of their past eight overall. They're also 0-6 ATS in their past six against NFC teams, and 0-4 ATS in their past four divisional games. The Panthers have covered five of their past seven at home, and four of their past five overall. Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in their past seven trips to Charlotte, and 1-5 ATS in their past six overall against the first-place Panthers.


-- The Raiders are 6-2-1 ATS in their past nine trips to Denver, but they're 0-7-1 ATS in their past eight meetings overall with the Broncos. The favorite is also 6-0-1 ATS in the past seven meetings in this series, with the over hitting in five of the past six meetings in the Mile High City.

Bad Beat Extraordinaire


-- The Lions were covering (+2 1/2) in the Thursday night game by a 23-21 score before a phantom face mask penalty on the Lions created an untimed down situation. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers took advantage of the situation, winging the ball downfield over 70 yards for a Hail Mary touchdown to TE Richard Rodgers. The result of that play changed the fortunes for moneyline bettors of the Lions, all side bettors AND the total bettors with a line of Packers -2 1/2 and 46 points. This was the biggest bad beat of the 2015 NFL regular season, and it isn't even debatable.

 

[CNOTES]

Big 'dogs help books win Week 13
December 7, 2015


The sports books have all kinds of ways to make money on an NFL Sunday against the betting public, but the surest way of all is to get a couple of the big favorites to lose outright and in Week 13, two of the biggest numbers went down.

“The Patriots losing turned out to be our best game of the day,” said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne. “We had give back a lot on the Eagles money-line just to balance out some of the teaser money we had extended on the Patriots, but it still turned out to be our best decision.”

The Eagles actually looked like the team we all thought they were during the preseason with its impressive 35-28 win at New England, a score that really wasn’t that close. Tom Brady and the Patriots offense continue to show the effects of not having all their key starters.


On Sunday, both tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide receiver Julian Edelman were out. The Patriots have now failed to cover its past four games, which not so ironically started with the Giants game which is when Edelman got hurt. Coupled with their Week 12 loss at Denver, Sunday’s defeat was the Patriots first of the back-to-back nature since 2012.

“After that,” Osborne continued, “the next best game was in the morning with the 49ers beating the Bears, who were one of the most popular teams with parlays.“

The 49ers improbable 26-20 win at Chicago, led by Blaine Gabbert showing everyone he has all kinds of athletic skills and can lead a team to victory just like he did with such regularity in college. Gabbert had been labeled as the worst back-up in the league, but he came up with his best NFL performance that included a 44-yard TD run in the late fourth quarter to tie it up 20-20 and then in overtime he threw a beautiful deep ball down the left sideline to Torrey Smith that covered 71-yards for the game winning TD.

With two of the biggest underdogs cashing and killing off a large chunk of the parlay and teaser risk and then also getting the Saints to cover 6-points at home against new public favorite Carolina, you might think the books had one of their better weekends, but that wasn’t the case.


“It was just an average NFL Sunday,” said Osborne. “We won a few and lost a few, but none of the decisions were really that big.”

The public was able to hold their ground and gain some traction themselves several winning sides, that included extended parlay risk paying from Saturday’s college football.

“The public was able to cash in their Chiefs, Broncos, Seahawks and Cardinals tickets,’ said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick.


“We were cashing lots of parlay winners that had Green Bay on Thursday tied to some of Sunday’s games as well as Alabama, Stanford and Clemson on Saturday.”

The Chiefs poured it on at Oakland with 20 unanswered points to cover the three-point spread making it their fifth straight cover.


The Brock Osweiler era is now 3-0 with the Broncos winning 17-3 at lowly San Diego, easily covering the six-point spread. The Chargers have failed to cover its last nine games against AFC West teams -- they play at Kansas City this week.


The Seahawks 38-7 win at Minnesota was its fifth win six games and Minnesota’s loss dropped them out of first place in the NFC Central. After two straight non-covers, Arizona got back in the good graces of their betting public by winning 27-3 at St. Louis, which was the Cardinals sixth straight win.

Usually after all the dust has settled from the first two waves of Sunday games there’s a big risk attached to the Sunday night game where a losing day can be compounded severely or a winning day can have all that money given right back to bettors. But this week it was different with Steelers at home against Indianapolis.

“Very small risk,” said McCormick. “We didn’t have the game on the parlay cards because of the late opening line due to Ben Roethlisberger’s status.”


The parlay card numbers are made on Wednesday, sent to the printers and delivered on Thursday mornings. Roethlisberger didn’t practice until Wednesday, but was still listed as questionable. The initial line offered on the board was Pittsburgh -7 and it ran all the way to -10 kickoff, and the Steelers won 45-10.

Super Bowl Odds Shuffled


With the Patriots second consecutive loss and giving Cincinnati the fast track to home field in the AFC, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has adjusted New England from the 5/2 up to 4/1 to win the Super Bowl.


They are still favored, but undefeated Carolina is gaining ground as they dropped from 5/1 last week down to 9/2.


The AFC race is going to get real interesting coming up in the next few weeks with three teams sitting at 10-2. Denver has a Dec. 28 date at home with the Bengals that could decide home field.


Denver was 10/1 last week and have been dropped to 6/1.


Here’s a look at all the updated Westgate Super Bowl odds as of Monday Dec. 7, 2015.

Super Bowl 50 Game Line
NFC Total 51
AFC -2

Odds to win Super Bowl 50
Patriots 4/1
Panthers 9/2
Cardinals 5/1
Broncos 6/1
Packers 7/1
Seahawks 7/1
Bengals 8/1
Steelers 14/1
Vikings 25/1
Chiefs 30/1
Colts 30/1
Redskins 40/1
Eagles 50/1
Jets 50/1
Giants 50/1
Texans 60/1
Cowboys 100/1
Bucs 100/1
Bills 100/1
Falcons 100/1
Bears 200/1
Dolphins 200/1
Jaguars 500/1
Raiders 500/1
Saints 1000/1
Rams 2000/1
49ers 2000/1
Lions 2000/1
Chargers OFF
Ravens OFF
Browns OFF
Titans OFF


Odds to win NFC Championship
Panthers 2/1
Cardinals 12/5
Seahawks 7/2
Packers 7/2
Vikings 12/1
Redskins 20/1
Eagles 25/1
Giants 25/1
Cowboys 50/1
Falcons 50/1
Bucs 50/1
Bears 100/1
Lions 1000/1
Saints 500/1
Rams 1000/1
49ers 1000/1


Odds to win AFC Championship
Patriots 3/2
Broncos 9/4
Bengals 7/2
Steelers 6/1
Colts 13/1
Chiefs 13/1
Jets 23/1
Texans 25/1
Bills 45/1
Dolphins 90/1
Jaguars 230/1
Raiders 230/1
Ravens OFF
Chargers OFF
Titans OFF
Browns OFF

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Week 14 Essentials
December 8, 2015




The best matchup Week 14 has to offer will be played immediately, a Thursday night showcase that could wind up being a preview of this year’s NFC Championship. Let’s get right into a huge week as the schedule begins winding down:


Thursday, Dec. 10


Minnesota at Arizona: The Vikings were crushed in every phase of the game in Sunday’s 38-7 home loss to Seattle, so they’ll be looking to avoid consecutive losses for the first time this season. Minnesota carries a four-game road winning streak into Glendale and sit atop the NFC North with co-leaders Green Bay, but any hope it has of a first-round bye requires a victory in this one. Adrian Peterson comes off his least productive game of the season due to the hole Minnesota dug for itself against the Seahawks, getting just eight carries and catching four passes for a grand total of 24 yards. Despite this, his 1,182 rushing yards remain tops in the NFL. Arizona’s run defense ranks fourth in the league in yards allowed and surrenders 19.3 points per game, tied with Minnesota for fourth overall. The Cardinals come off a 27-3 win over St. Louis where rookie RB David Johnson posted 99 rushing yards and a receiving touchdown in place of the injured Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington. He’ll need to continue producing if Arizona is going to wrap up the NFC’s No. 2 seed and second bye.


Sunday, Dec. 13


Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: Ben Roethlisberger tossed for a season-high four TDs in Sunday night’s 45-10 win over Indianapolis, showing no effects of any concussion symptoms that had his status in doubt earlier in the week. Since a 16-10 home loss to these Bengals on Nov. 1, Roethlisberger has thrown for 1,533 yards in leading the Steelers to a 3-1 record, tossing 10 touchdowns and just three picks. Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant may be the most feared WR combination in the league, but Pittsburgh remains three games behind the Bengals in the AFC North, which means the home team can clinch the division with a win here. The Bengals have surrendered 10 points or less in five of the last six games, a streak that started in Pittsburgh. The defense leads the NFL in fewest points per game allowed (16.3), while the Steelers have scored an average of 34.3 points over their last four contests.


Buffalo at Philadelphia: A road upset of the Patriots has the Eagles in contention in the putrid NFC East, snapping a three-game losing streak that featured lopsided losses to the Bucs and Lions. While Sam Bradford returned under center, Philadelphia’s offense still failed to move the ball well as most of the scoring came as a result of defense and special teams returns. It remains to be seen whether Bradford can improve and be more of a threat then he was before injuring his shoulder and dealing with a concussion. The Bills saved their own season with a 30-21 home win over Houston, getting three touchdown passes from Tyrod Taylor, who also ran for a score. The offense has really picked it up of late and should be even better if linemen Seantrel Henderson and John Miller, both of whom missed last week’s win, are able to return to the lineup. WR Sammy Watkins has nine receptions for 267 yards and three touchdowns over the last two games, which spells trouble for Philly’s porous secondary.


Atlanta at Carolina: After starting 5-0, the Falcons have dropped six of seven and find themselves on the outside looking in the NFC playoff picture. The latest collapse came as a result of being unable to tackle Jameis Winston on an eventual game-winning drive that allowed the Bucs to complete a season sweep in this series. The Falcons are 0-3 inside the division and are only now getting their first look at the undefeated Panthers, who have already wrapped up the NFC South. Julio Jones questioned Atlanta’s red zone play-calling after Sunday’s loss after his fourth consecutive game without a touchdown. Carolina has won four of the last five in the series, but did lose at home 19-17 on Nov. 16, the last time it lost at Charlotte’s Bank of America Stadium. Including playoffs, the Panthers have won nine straight home games. The teams will meet again on Dec. 27 in Week 16.


San Francisco at Cleveland: With both teams basically eliminated from playoff contention, this one is all about Johnny Manziel’s return to the starting lineup after what was basically a two-game banishment for lying about partying during the team’s bye week. The process of seeing where he is in his learning curve begins at home against a solid 49ers defense and will include games against the Seahawks, Chiefs and Steelers, all teams in the thick of the playoff hunt. Manziel is 1-2 in his starts this season, throwing four TDs and one interception in games against Tennessee, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. San Francisco has won one game per month and already have met their quota in a 26-20 win at Chicago last Sunday. Blaine Gabbert is 2-2 since replacing Colin Kaepernick as the starter and has been surprisingly competent despite not being able to work with top tailback Carlos Hyde, who will likely miss his sixth consecutive game with a stress fracture in his foot.

Washington at Chicago: The ‘Skins wasted an opportunity to grab the NFC East by the throat on Monday night, failing to get in the end zone until the fourth quarter and failing to come up with a stop on Dallas’ final possession, losing 19-16. They’re in a three-way tie for first in the division alongside the Giants and Eagles and will close the season with the most manageable schedule of any of the contenders, playing only a single opponent currently at .500. Washington will have to play three of its last four away from Landover and enters Soldier Field winless in five road games thus far. Kirk Cousins has been the main culprit, throwing eight interceptions and just five touchdowns in opposing stadiums. Ironically, Chicago is just 1-5 at home, but does have its offensive unit healthier than it has been all season.

Detroit at St. Louis: After being dealt a soul-crushing blow by Green Bay on their last game’s final play, the Lions will find themselves in an opposing dome for a battle of 4-8 teams. It remains to be seen whether there’s any hangover to be had after such a traumatic loss, but defensive coordinator Teryl Austin should have a solid game plan in place as Detroit looks to add to the Rams’ woes. Only San Francisco averages fewer offensive points per game than St. Louis (14.4), which is also loast in passing yards per game (178.0) and first downs (175). Over the past four games, the Rams have managed just 36 points (9.0), coming off a season-low in a 27-3 setback at Arizona. Coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr. lost his job on Monday in a move Jeff Fisher characterized as being important to the team’s future, but replacement Rob Boras has never called plays on the pro level, operating mostly as a tight ends coach. Case Keenum is expected to start ahead of Nick Foles now that he’s cleared concussion protocol.

San Diego at Kansas City: The Chiefs own the AFC’s longest winning streak at six games, even with Arizona for the second-longest in the NFL behind unbeaten Carolina. Head coach Andy Reid has done a tremendous job picking his team up from the loss of RB Jamaal Charles, riding a committee approach at tailback and getting superb play from QB Alex Smith, who hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 3. He’s thrown for a pair of touchdowns in each of the last two games and faces a Chargers defense that ranks 29th of 32 teams, surrendering 27 points per game. Kansas City will likely have to find ways to get after Philip Rivers without top pass-rusher Justin Houston, who was inactive last week with a strained PCL and isn’t likely to return this week. San Diego suffered a 33-3 home loss to the Chiefs on Nov. 22 as Rivers failed to throw a TD pass for the first time all season. He repeated the feat in Sunday’s 17-3 home loss to Denver. Kansas City has lost two of the last three at Arrowhead against the Chargers.


New Orleans at Tampa Bay: Losing a 41-38 shootout to the Panthers realistically ended the Saints playoff pursuit, which means the team will miss the playoffs for the third time in four years since the organization was rocked by Bountygate. The defense has been a disaster all season, statistically ranking among the worst of all-time. Drew Brees threw for 282 yards and three TDs against typically stingy Carolina and will look to avoid a fifth straight loss, which would mark the longest losing streak of the Sean Payton era. Last time he saw the Bucs, he significantly injured his shoulder after being hit while pressured and wound up missing the next week’s contest. Jameis Winston has already swept Atlanta and will look to improve his team’s NFC South record to 4-1 while climbing over .500 for the first time. Tampa Bay had lost seven straight against New Orleans entering the season. The Bucs haven’t swept the Saints since 2007, Payton’s second season at the helm.


Indianapolis at Jacksonville: Monitor Andrew Luck’s availability here. Although the Colts were shooting for him to come back in Week 15, Matt Hasselbeck injured his neck and shoulder in suffering his first loss as a starter against Pittsburgh on Sunday night. If neither Luck (kidney) or Hasselbeck can go, Indianapolis would be forced to turn to Charlie Whitehurst. The Colts defeated the Jaguars behind Hasselbeck way back in Week 4 on Oct. 4, prevailing in OT after rookie kicker Jason Myers missed a pair of chances to win the game for visiting Jacksonville. Blake Bortles is 0-3 against the Colts, being outscored by an 83-33 margin. He threw for a career-high five TD passes in Sunday’s 42-39 loss at Tennessee, doing damage despite missing key receiver Allen Hurns, who has been out with a concussion but should return for this one. He caught 11 balls for 116 yards and a score in Indianapolis.

Tennessee at N.Y. Jets: Marcus Mariota has thrown for 11 touchdowns and just one pick in the Titans three wins this season, which tells you the No. 2 pick in this past draft has had to be masterful to elevate his team beyond a competitive level. In the seven losses he’s participated in, Mariota has thrown eight TDs and eight picks. Tennessee has won 42-14, 34-28 and 42-39 and hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record. The Jets are hoping to get Darrelle Revis back from a concussion and Marcus Williams from a knee injury, restoring their secondary’s top two corners. Offensively, Ryan Fitzpatrick is doing his part to taste his first postseason, coming off season-highs in completions (36) and yards (390) in a 23-20 OT win over the Giants.

Seattle at Baltimore: The Seahawks are surging, owning a season-long three-game winning streak after dominating the Vikings. As a result, they’re sitting in sole possession of the final NFC playoff spot, which would spell trouble for whover has the misfortune of drawing the two-time defending champs on Wild Card weekend. Russell Wilson has dominated on this current run, throwing 11 touchdowns without an interception while adding a rushing TD. Doug Baldwin has caught 24 passes for 433 yards and six scores over the last four games. The depleted Ravens had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 15-13 loss in Miami. Baltimore has beaten only one team with a winning record this season and is beginning a three-game homestand to close out December. John Harbaugh’s team is 2-3 SU at M&T Bank Stadium but is 0-4-1 ATS there. Since taking over for the injured Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub has thrown for 540 yards over two games, tossing three touchdowns and four picks.

Oakland at Denver: A disastrous fourth quarter prevented the Raiders from getting back to .500 against Kansas City, which means they’ll have to win out to have a realistic shot at the playoffs. Second-year QB Derek Carr committed costly turnovers as Oakland was outscored 20-0 by the Chiefs to wipe out a 20-14 lead. The Broncos allow just 17.5 points, second-lowest in the league, and have registered 23 takeaways, tied with five others for the second-most in the NFL. No one has recovered more fumbles. Brock Osweiler is 3-0 as Denver’s starter and is in line to start for Peyton Manning once again. Denver has won the last eight games in this series, last losing in the 2011 season opener. The Broncos have beaten Carr by a margin of 104-41 in their three victories over him.

Dallas at Green Bay: Coming off a miracle win on Thursday night via Hail Mary, the Packers are hoping for a more complete performance than they managed at Detroit. There are still major issues due to a banged up offensive line and a depleted receiving corps, but Richard Rodgers grab of Aaron Rodgers’ 61-yard heave with time expired served as the ultimate bandage. With extra time to prepare, the Packers now have a home game to get healthy with, facing a Tony Romo-less Cowboys team coming in off a short week after playing in Landover on Monday night. Rodgers has thrown 14 touchdowns and just three picks at Lambeau Field this season, but has been a part consecutive home losses to Detroit and Chicago, snapping a run of 13 straight wins on the friendly frozen tundra. The Cowboys picked up a gutsy win over Washington on Monday night, overcoming three costly turnovers and uncharacteristically blitzing heavily to ensure they were getting pressure on Cousins. Dallas is going to have to pick its spots attacking Rodgers, but rides a wave of momentum into another must-win.


New England at Houston: The Patriots have dropped two straight for the first time since September of 2012, but are hoping to get star tight end Rob Gronkowski back from his scary-looking knee injury to help aid the passing game. It remains to be seen whether the organization takes a cautious approach with him, but he’s obviously missed. Tom Brady was picked off on multiple occasions for the first time all season in Sunday’s loss to Philadelphia and had massive issues with drops. We’ll see how he fares against a Texans defense that is going to come after him after surrendering 30 points in a road loss to the Bills. Sacks leader J.J. Watt had helped Houston hold three of its last four opponents to six points prior to the loss in Buffalo, so expect them to aggressively get after Brady in this Sunday night showdown.


Monday, Dec. 14


N.Y. Giants at Miami: It’s not the most attractive matchup of the week, but the Monday night game does again pack some intrigue. The Dolphins held off Baltimore at home to remain alive in the playoff hunt, but continue to bring up the rear in the AFC East. Meanwhile, New York blew yet another fourth-quarter lead in a dreadful loss to the Jets that makes this a must-win considering it closes the season against Carolina, Minnesota and Philadelphia. Eli Manning threw a costly red-zone interception in the fourth quarter but benefits from the presence of one of the game’s most productive receivers in Odell Beckham Jr., who has racked up double-digit targets in four consecutive games and has racked up over 100 yards in five straight. He’s caught a touchdown in each of the last three contests and has a favorable matchup against a vulnerable Dolphins secondary here.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Week 14 betting odds coming down hard on patchwork Patriots


“The Patriots didn’t deserve to drop their last two games, especially this week, but they could lose a legit one here." - John Lester, Bookmaker.eu.


As Week 14 dawns in the NFL, the seemingly impervious New England Patriots suddenly look, well, pervious. The Pats got out to a 10-0 SU start, then were a 2.5-point favorite against a backup quarterback at Denver two weekends ago and lost outright, 30-24 in overtime.


Sunday’s result, though, was much more surprising. New England (10-2 SU, 5-5-2 ATS) went off as 9.5-point home chalk against underwhelming Philadelphia, gave up 28 straight points after taking a 14-0 lead, and lost 35-28.


Now, the banged-up Patriots have their second Sunday night road game in three weeks, traveling to face a Houston team desperate to stay in the playoff hunt. The Texans (6-6 SU and ATS) had their four-game SU and ATS win streak iced in Buffalo Sunday, losing 30-21 as 3-point underdogs.


John Lester, senior lines manager at Bookmaker.eu, sent New England out as a field-goal favorite.


“The Patriots didn’t deserve to drop their last two games, especially this week, but they could lose a legit one here,” Lester said. “Most people are going to scratch their heads at this line, but if we hang New England any higher, the sharps would hammer Houston. This is going to be a great Sunday night matchup.”


Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals (-7)


After surprisingly rising to the top of the NFC North, Minnesota (8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS) has cooled off with two losses – both at home – in its last three games. That includes Sunday’s beatdown at the hands of two-time defending NFC champion Seattle, which dealt the 2.5-point underdog Vikings a 38-7 loss.


On the flip side, Arizona (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS) is riding a six-game SU winning streak (3-3 ATS). The Cardinals, 3.5-point faves at St. Louis Sunday, rolled to a 27-3 victory.


“The Cardinals have the personnel in the secondary to employ exactly the same game plan the Seahawks did against Minnesota in Week 13,” Lester said. “We felt comfortable opening this spread at a touchdown, and the early money came in on Arizona. There’s no doubt the Cards are a head above where the improving Vikings are, and Arizona is very dangerous at home.”


Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)


The Bengals used weak foes to regain their form, after a pair of losses following their 8-0 SU start. Cincinnati (10-2 SU) ripped host St. Louis in Week 12, then drubbed Cleveland Sunday 37-3 giving 7.5 points at home, and the Bengals now lead the league with a 10-1-1 ATS record.


Pittsburgh also had a huge offensive outburst in the Sunday night contest. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger had no ill effects from a concussion suffered a week earlier, as the Steelers (7-5 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) drubbed Indianapolis 45-10 giving 10 points at home.


But with the game on Sunday night, Lester said he’d hold off on the line.


“If the Steelers come through Sunday night relatively healthy, we’ll look to make Cincinnati around a 3-point favorite,” he said. “The Bengals have been absolutely steam-rolling weak competition of late, but this should be an old-fashioned AFC North battle.”


Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (N/A)


Green Bay got easily the most stunning victory of Week 13, converting a Hail Mary on an untimed down, due to penalty as time expired in Thursday’s game at Detroit. The Packers (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) won 27-23 as 2.5-point road faves to end a 1-4 SU and ATS slide.


Dallas, amazingly enough, remains in the hunt in the dismal NFC East. But the Cowboys (3-8 SU and ATS) still have Week 13 work left to do, playing at Washington in the Monday night contest, and they won’t have QB Tony Romo (collarbone, again) the rest of the season. So Matt Cassel will take the helm.


“If the Cowboys pull out a win Monday night, there will be plenty of public bettors predicting they will make the playoffs. So Monday’s game will somewhat dictate how we set this line,” Lester said. “Green Bay has looked like a shell of its former self, and Dallas has a defense that can disrupt Aaron Rodgers and Co. Of course, you’ve got a bit of a revenge angle for the Cowboys too.”


That would be due to Dallas’ controversial 26-21 playoff loss at Green Bay last January.

 

[CNOTES]

Don't miss the best betting value with these NFL Week 14 odds

The Panthers are making the 1972 Dolphins nervous and aren't get much respect from oddsmakers against the flightless Falcons in Week 14.


Spread to bet now


Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-7.5)


Isn’t this about the time that the cranky old 1972 Dolphins of Mercury Morris and Don Shula start to worry? Carolina is four wins away from an undefeated regular season, which would match New England’s 2007 mark and begin speculation about besting the Fins’ run-the-table season 43 years ago.


First up is offense-starved Atlanta, which averaged better than 32 points in winning its first five games but in its last seven (1-6) has not scored more than 21 as its season has come crashing down. The Falcons have gone more than two months (Oct. 4) without covering a spread, and aren’t getting much love from early bettors in this one – even with the half point. Unless Cam Newton is lying and really is concussed, this line stays put.


Spread to wait on


Detroit Lions at St. Louis Rams (-1)


This basically a pick’em game anyway, but with significant early money down on the Lions, the Rams might not have to give even the one by the time this one kicks off. There’s not much in the way of motivation for either team (both are 4-8 and just about out of playoff contention), but by the time this one kicks off Detroit will have had several things going its way.


The Lions are on a few extra days of rest after playing on Thursday (Dec. 3) as well as decent momentum despite losing on the Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary. The Lions had won three in a row prior, including a mid-November win in Green Bay. St. Louis goes in with five straight SU losses (0-4-1 ATS). Number could easily slide to pick’em.

Total to watch


New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (51)


Quietly and away from the Jameis Winston spotlight, the Buccaneers have strung together a month of decent defensive efforts. In games against Dallas, Philadelphia, Indianapolis an Atlanta, the Bucs have given up an average of fewer than 17 points a game in pulling to 6-6 and remaining on the fringes of a playoff spot. The Saints (7-4-1 on the over this season) will provide a good barometer for Tampa Bay’s defense.

 

[mudman]

Thanks for the information. BOL

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Week 14 betting odds coming down hard on patchwork Patriots


“The Patriots didn’t deserve to drop their last two games, especially this week, but they could lose a legit one here." - John Lester, Bookmaker.eu.


As Week 14 dawns in the NFL, the seemingly impervious New England Patriots suddenly look, well, pervious. The Pats got out to a 10-0 SU start, then were a 2.5-point favorite against a backup quarterback at Denver two weekends ago and lost outright, 30-24 in overtime.


Sunday’s result, though, was much more surprising. New England (10-2 SU, 5-5-2 ATS) went off as 9.5-point home chalk against underwhelming Philadelphia, gave up 28 straight points after taking a 14-0 lead, and lost 35-28.


Now, the banged-up Patriots have their second Sunday night road game in three weeks, traveling to face a Houston team desperate to stay in the playoff hunt. The Texans (6-6 SU and ATS) had their four-game SU and ATS win streak iced in Buffalo Sunday, losing 30-21 as 3-point underdogs.


John Lester, senior lines manager at Bookmaker.eu, sent New England out as a field-goal favorite.


“The Patriots didn’t deserve to drop their last two games, especially this week, but they could lose a legit one here,” Lester said. “Most people are going to scratch their heads at this line, but if we hang New England any higher, the sharps would hammer Houston. This is going to be a great Sunday night matchup.”


Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals (-7)


After surprisingly rising to the top of the NFC North, Minnesota (8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS) has cooled off with two losses – both at home – in its last three games. That includes Sunday’s beatdown at the hands of two-time defending NFC champion Seattle, which dealt the 2.5-point underdog Vikings a 38-7 loss.


On the flip side, Arizona (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS) is riding a six-game SU winning streak (3-3 ATS). The Cardinals, 3.5-point faves at St. Louis Sunday, rolled to a 27-3 victory.


“The Cardinals have the personnel in the secondary to employ exactly the same game plan the Seahawks did against Minnesota in Week 13,” Lester said. “We felt comfortable opening this spread at a touchdown, and the early money came in on Arizona. There’s no doubt the Cards are a head above where the improving Vikings are, and Arizona is very dangerous at home.”


Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)


The Bengals used weak foes to regain their form, after a pair of losses following their 8-0 SU start. Cincinnati (10-2 SU) ripped host St. Louis in Week 12, then drubbed Cleveland Sunday 37-3 giving 7.5 points at home, and the Bengals now lead the league with a 10-1-1 ATS record.


Pittsburgh also had a huge offensive outburst in the Sunday night contest. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger had no ill effects from a concussion suffered a week earlier, as the Steelers (7-5 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) drubbed Indianapolis 45-10 giving 10 points at home.


But with the game on Sunday night, Lester said he’d hold off on the line.


“If the Steelers come through Sunday night relatively healthy, we’ll look to make Cincinnati around a 3-point favorite,” he said. “The Bengals have been absolutely steam-rolling weak competition of late, but this should be an old-fashioned AFC North battle.”


Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (N/A)


Green Bay got easily the most stunning victory of Week 13, converting a Hail Mary on an untimed down, due to penalty as time expired in Thursday’s game at Detroit. The Packers (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) won 27-23 as 2.5-point road faves to end a 1-4 SU and ATS slide.


Dallas, amazingly enough, remains in the hunt in the dismal NFC East. But the Cowboys (3-8 SU and ATS) still have Week 13 work left to do, playing at Washington in the Monday night contest, and they won’t have QB Tony Romo (collarbone, again) the rest of the season. So Matt Cassel will take the helm.


“If the Cowboys pull out a win Monday night, there will be plenty of public bettors predicting they will make the playoffs. So Monday’s game will somewhat dictate how we set this line,” Lester said. “Green Bay has looked like a shell of its former self, and Dallas has a defense that can disrupt Aaron Rodgers and Co. Of course, you’ve got a bit of a revenge angle for the Cowboys too.”


That would be due to Dallas’ controversial 26-21 playoff loss at Green Bay last January.




----------------------------


Don't miss the best betting value with these NFL Week 14 odds


The Panthers are making the 1972 Dolphins nervous and aren't get much respect from oddsmakers against the flightless Falcons in Week 14.


Spread to bet now


Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-7.5)


Isn’t this about the time that the cranky old 1972 Dolphins of Mercury Morris and Don Shula start to worry? Carolina is four wins away from an undefeated regular season, which would match New England’s 2007 mark and begin speculation about besting the Fins’ run-the-table season 43 years ago.


First up is offense-starved Atlanta, which averaged better than 32 points in winning its first five games but in its last seven (1-6) has not scored more than 21 as its season has come crashing down. The Falcons have gone more than two months (Oct. 4) without covering a spread, and aren’t getting much love from early bettors in this one – even with the half point. Unless Cam Newton is lying and really is concussed, this line stays put.

Spread to wait on


Detroit Lions at St. Louis Rams (-1)


This basically a pick’em game anyway, but with significant early money down on the Lions, the Rams might not have to give even the one by the time this one kicks off. There’s not much in the way of motivation for either team (both are 4-8 and just about out of playoff contention), but by the time this one kicks off Detroit will have had several things going its way.


The Lions are on a few extra days of rest after playing on Thursday (Dec. 3) as well as decent momentum despite losing on the Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary. The Lions had won three in a row prior, including a mid-November win in Green Bay. St. Louis goes in with five straight SU losses (0-4-1 ATS). Number could easily slide to pick’em.

Total to watch


New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (51)


Quietly and away from the Jameis Winston spotlight, the Buccaneers have strung together a month of decent defensive efforts. In games against Dallas, Philadelphia, Indianapolis an Atlanta, the Bucs have given up an average of fewer than 17 points a game in pulling to 6-6 and remaining on the fringes of a playoff spot. The Saints (7-4-1 on the over this season) will provide a good barometer for Tampa Bay’s defense.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Long Sheet

Thursday, December 10

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (8 - 4) at ARIZONA (10 - 2) - 12/10/2015, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, December 13

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (7 - 5) at CINCINNATI (10 - 2) - 12/13/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games this season.
CINCINNATI is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
CINCINNATI is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
CINCINNATI is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
CINCINNATI is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CINCINNATI is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUFFALO (6 - 6) at PHILADELPHIA (5 - 7) - 12/13/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (6 - 6) at CAROLINA (12 - 0) - 12/13/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 70-46 ATS (+19.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CAROLINA is 53-30 ATS (+20.0 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 8) at CLEVELAND (2 - 10) - 12/13/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (5 - 7) at CHICAGO (5 - 7) - 12/13/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (4 - 8) at ST LOUIS (4 - 8) - 12/13/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 59-84 ATS (-33.4 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
DETROIT is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in road games against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
DETROIT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 147-187 ATS (-58.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 147-187 ATS (-58.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 105-147 ATS (-56.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 114-149 ATS (-49.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN DIEGO (3 - 9) at KANSAS CITY (7 - 5) - 12/13/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 89-63 ATS (+19.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 4-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 3-2 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (4 - 8) at TAMPA BAY (6 - 6) - 12/13/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 4-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANAPOLIS (6 - 6) at JACKSONVILLE (4 - 8) - 12/13/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 5-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (3 - 9) at NY JETS (7 - 5) - 12/13/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (10 - 2) at HOUSTON (6 - 6) - 12/13/2015, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 170-130 ATS (+27.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 54-34 ATS (+16.6 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (5 - 7) at DENVER (10 - 2) - 12/13/2015, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 29-55 ATS (-31.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 28-52 ATS (-29.2 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
DENVER is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
DENVER is 24-41 ATS (-21.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 4-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 5-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (4 - 8) at GREEN BAY (8 - 4) - 12/13/2015, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 2-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (7 - 5) at BALTIMORE (4 - 8) - 12/13/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, December 14

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (5 - 7) at MIAMI (5 - 7) - 12/14/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 29-49 ATS (-24.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Week 14

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, December 10

8:25 PM
MINNESOTA vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Minnesota is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games at home
Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games


Sunday, December 13

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. NY JETS
Tennessee is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
Tennessee is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games on the road
NY Jets are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of the NY Jets last 8 games

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. ST. LOUIS
Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
Detroit is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games
St. Louis is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Detroit
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. TAMPA BAY
New Orleans is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. CHICAGO
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 10 games

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. KANSAS CITY
San Diego is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 games
San Diego is 6-11-1 ATS in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
Kansas City is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against San Diego

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. PHILADELPHIA
Buffalo is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games
Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Buffalo

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Seattle is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Baltimore is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Seattle

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games
San Francisco is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 9 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. CAROLINA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Carolina's last 20 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

4:05 PM
OAKLAND vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Oakland's last 15 games
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing at home against Oakland
Denver is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games

4:25 PM
DALLAS vs. GREEN BAY
Dallas is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games
Dallas is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Green Bay is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games

8:30 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. HOUSTON
New England is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing New England
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing New England


Monday, December 14

8:30 PM
NY GIANTS vs. MIAMI
NY Giants are 8-17 SU in their last 25 games on the road
NY Giants are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 14

Thursday's game
Vikings (8-4) @ Cardinals (10-2)-- Minnesota lost two of last three games after winning 5 in row before that; Vikings are 4-2 SU on road, 4-0 vs spread when a dog. Arizona is 4-1 at home, 2-3 as home favorite- they're 40 for last 74 on third down. Cardinals have three-game lead in NFC West; Vikings are tied with Packers atop NFC North. Arizona held five of last six opponents under 100 yards rushing; Vikings scored 9.8 ppg this year when running for less than 100 yards. Minnesota is 10-2 in last 12 series games, winning last three by 3-24-7 points; Vikings' last visit here was '09. NFC North non-divisional road underdogs are 7-3 vs spread; NFC West home favorites are 4-5. Four of five Arizona home games went over the total; under is 3-1-1 in last five Viking games.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Thursday, December 10

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Vikings at Cardinals
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Cardinals will try to win their seventh consecutive game by doing what divsion rival Seattle did last week and beat the Vikings.

Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals (-7.5, 46)

Coming off their worst loss of the season, the Minnesota Vikings hope to have better success against another NFC West opponent when they visit the surging Arizona Cardinals on Thursday night. The Vikings absorbed a 38-7 shellacking by visiting Seattle on Sunday and now must contend with the Cardinals, who have ripped off six consecutive victories.

Running back Adrian Peterson created a stir when he said the Vikings were outplayed and "outcoached" in the drubbing by the Seahawks, but he defended his remarks Tuesday. "We are a team. We win together, and we lose together," Peterson said. "And we lost together. We didn't play well as players and the coaches didn't coach well." The Cardinals breezed to a 27-3 victory at St. Louis on Sunday to improve to 10-2 for the first time since 1948. Arizona holds a three-game lead over Seattle atop the NFC West and a two-game advantage for the No. 2 seed in the conference.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Cardinals opened favored by 7.5-points and have not moved from the opening number so far. The total has been bet up slightly from 45 to 46. Check out the complete line history here.

INJURY REPORT:

Vikings - S R. Blanton (questionable Thursday, knee), S A. Sendejo (questionable Thursday, knee), C J. Sullivan (questionable Thursday, back) DT L. Joseph (out Thursday, foot), LB A. Barr (out Thursday, groin), S H. Smith (out Thursday, hamstring), S A. Exum (I-R, ribs).

Cardinals - S R. Johnson (probable Thursday, ankle), RB S. Taylor (probable Thursday, shoulder), LS M. Leach (probable Thursday, knee), WR M. Floyd (questionable Thursday, ankle), S T. Jefferson (questionable Thursday, hamstring), DE C. Redding (questionable Thursday, ankle), DE F. Rucker (doubtful Thursday, ankle), CB J. Powers (doubtful Thursday, calf), RB A. Ellington (out Thursday, toe), TE J. Gresham (out Thursday, knee), G E. Walford (I-R, hand).

POWER RANKINGS: Vikings (-0.5) - Cardinals (-5.5) + home field (-3) = Cardinals -8

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Vikings have gone over the total in only two of their 12 games this season and those were by 2 and 2.5 points each. They have also stayed under the total in nine of 12 games when playing off a loss under Mike Zimmer. No surprise to see more of the same this evening."

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (8-4, 9-3 ATS, 2-9-1 O/U): Peterson, who leads the NFL with 1,182 rushing yards, was unhappy after receiving only eight carries for 18 yards against Seattle, so Minnesota figures to feed him early and often to keep Arizona's top-ranked offense off the field. Second-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater threw for a season-low 118 yards in Sunday's loss and has only three touchdowns against four interceptions in his last six games. Minnesota's defense had held nine opponents to 20 points or fewer but has surrendered at least 30 in two of the last three contests.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (10-2, 7-5 ATS, 8-4 O/U): Arizona is averaging a league-best 31.8 points behind quarterback Carson Palmer, who ranks second in the NFL with 29 touchdown passes and has thrown for 3,693 yards. Veteran Larry Fitzgerald became the youngest player to reach 1,000 career receptions on Sunday, while fellow wide receivers Michael Floyd and John Brown each went over 100 yards. With running backs Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington injured in a Week 12 victory at San Francisco, rookie David Johnson filled the void by rushing for 99 yards and catching a TD pass in his first NFL start.

TRENDS:

* Vikings are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.
* Cardinals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in December.
* Under is 8-2 in Vikings last 10 games versus the NFC.
* Over is 5-1 in Cardinals last six home games.

CONSENSUS: Bettors think the Vikings will bounce back this week, with 56 percent of wagers on Minnesota. As for the total market, 55 percent of bettors are on the over.

 

[CNOTES]

Week 14 weather that could affect your bets


We look ahead to the weather forecast for Week 14 in the NFL and it looks like it will be a messy one.


With potential inclement weather in several stadiums this Sunday, we break down the forecast that could affect your bets. So check it out before placing your NFL wagers.


Washington at Chicago Bears (-3.5, OFF)


It could get very slick and muddy at Solider Field, with an 80 percent chance of rain at gametime and there is even a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast.


Temperatures will be in the mid 50's and there will be a 12-15 mile per hour wind gusting towards the northern endzone.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 49.5)


This important AFC North showdown could be a wet one, with a 59 percent chance of rain in the forecast for kickoff.


There will also be a 11-13 mile per hour wind gusting towards the northern most corner of the northern end zone. Temperatures will be in the high 50's for this one.


San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns (-1.5, 41)


Just down the highway in Cleveland, there is more win and rain in the forecast.


The chance of rain isn't as great at 36 percent at gametime, but the wind will be just as strong, gusting at 12-15 miles per hour across the field from south to north, with temperatures in the low 60's.


San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 45)


It feels like the wet weather just keeps sticking around Kansas City, as there is a 60-80 percent chance of rain at Arrowhead Sunday. It will be a cold rain too, with temperatures in the low 40's.


There will also be a 9-10 mile per hour wind gusting towards the southeast end zone.


Tennessee Titans at New York Jets (-7.5, 43)


There is just a slight 27 percent chance of rain at MetLife Stadium with temperatures in the high 50's.


There will be a minimal 3-5 mile per hour wind blowing towards the northern end zone.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-7.5, OFF)


The tundra at Lambeau Field isn't frozen just yet, but it's getting there and this week it will more than likely be wet, with a 67 percent chance of rain in the forecast.


Temperatures will be in the high 30's with a chilly 0-12 mile per hour wind blowing across the field from east to west.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 14


Minnesota @ Arizona

Game 101-102
December 10, 2015 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
132.067
Arizona
137.588
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 5 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 9
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(+9); Under




NFL
Short Sheet

Week 14

Thursday - Dec, 10

Minnesota at Arizona, 8:25 ET
Minnesota: 17-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses
Arizona: 9-21 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games

 

[CNOTES]

This unique NFL betting situation will make you a believer in trap games


The Chicago Bears were in a unique spot in Week 13, coming off a win as big underdogs and taking on the 49ers as big home favorites.


Two Sundays ago, the Chicago Bears went into Lambeau Field and shocked the world, producing a 4-point victory against the 7.5-point favorites, the Green Bay Packers.


That win improved the Bears to 5-6 SU and gave them a sliver of postseason hope. But the next weekend, fresh off this huge victory, Chicago hosted the struggling San Francisco 49ers at home as a 6-point favorite and fell to the 49ers in overtime. This was a severe blow to the Bears’ playoff hopes, not eliminating them completely but making it much harder for them to sneak in.


Trap games have long been considered a real phenomenon in the NFL. Although the definition of a trap is a little nebulous and hard to define, it’s most commonly thought of as a game that is a mismatch on paper - i.e. one team is considered better than the other, and the better team is coming off of a big win or looking forward to big game.


When you’re a mediocre team like the Bears, it’s questionable whether you can even have trap games. Yet their game last weekend against the 49ers certainly looked like one (hindsight is 20/20 and all, but even before that it did). This also represents a particular type of trap game where a team is coming off a surprising upset and is playing a team so bad, they are massively favored in their next game.


As you might imagine, this does not occur that often. Usually, if a team is bad enough to be large underdogs one week they are not good enough to be large favorites the next week. It only happens when you have a pretty mediocre team (the Bears) playing a top-tier team one week (the Packers) and then one of the worst teams the next (the 49ers). For example, only 44 teams in our database were +7.5 or worse one week and then -6 the next. Therefore, for our analysis we may want to expand the boundaries a little.


Aside from the actual effect of the trap game, that players may overlook their opponent and play better, there may also be another force that’s affecting the line and making it look like a trap game. Bettors may have seen the Bears win and thought that the Bears were better than they actually are.


In other words, although the Packers-Bears game reveals more information about each team’s true talent level, if bettors read too much into the game and end up thinking that the Bears are better than they actually are because of that one game, then the line next week may be higher than it should be. There are two effects here and it is hard to determine which of them is dominant. But for betting purposes it doesn’t matter, both help us make money.


So we want to look at teams that were underdogs and won and then were favorites in their next game. But how big of underdogs should they have to be to be included in our analysis? And how big of favorites the next week?


We first decided to look at teams that were more than 5-point underdogs and then more than 5-point favorites, since that is nice round number and means they were basically two field goals/a touchdown underdogs/favorites.


There were 128 instances where teams were 5-point underdogs and then 5-point favorites the subsequent week. The team only covered 51 times or 39.8 percent of the time. That is extremely practically significant, even considering the 5 percent vig, and we would be able to make a decent amount of money betting against these teams.


Had we bet $105 to win $100 against all these teams, we would have made $2,345 - good for a 17.5 percent return rate. This is also a statistically significant difference, with a p-value of 0.02674. This makes it safe to assume that even if there isn’t really a trap game effect, there is something that pushes the lines too much towards those teams - either way, you should bet against them.


What happens if we widen our scope a little bit to include games where the team was as a greater than 3-point underdog the game before and is now a 3-point (or more) favorite? We now have 346 observations, and the team managed to cover the spread in 155 or 44.8 percent of those games.


That is statistically significant, with a p-value of 0.059. So clearly, it’s not as large of a difference as before, suggesting that as you shrink what you consider to be a “large” upset and a “large” favorite, there doesn’t appear as large of a trap game effect.


Although, as I said before, it is hard to tell whether teams actually play worse in a trap game or if it’s just bettors reading too much into a big win. In addition to these types of trap games, we also have the situations where a team is coming off a tough win against a quality opponent and then plays a bad team.


For this, we would want to look at teams that won with a spread of between around -3 and +3, suggesting a close game, and then play in a game where they are favored by more than a touchdown, suggesting a game where they’re playing what is considered an inferior opponent.


Does it matter how much they won by the week before to be considered a trap game? If the idea is that they’re coming off a big win and feeling good and confident, then yes one would think it matters.


As it turns out, when looking at the data, that it doesn’t matter. If we look at all teams who meet the previous criterion without considering how much they won by, we have 361 teams, of which 181 won against the spread - nearly 50 percent. If we look at only teams that won by a touchdown or more, we have 246 teams of which 124 won the next week against the spread… also nearly 50 percent.


Although that doesn’t prove definitively that trap games of that sort don’t exist, it suggests that most of the difference we saw in earlier situations - the kind that the Bears found themselves in - is due to bettors giving them too much credit and thinking that they’re better than they actually are.


So does this help you going into the upcoming week? There were two teams who won the past weekend as an underdog of 5-points or greater: the Philadelphia Eagles and the San Francisco 49ers.


However, the Eagles are 1.5-point underdogs against the Buffalo Bills, while the 49ers are also 1.5-point underdogs against the Cleveland Browns. While there may not be any opportunities to put this newfound knowledge to work this week, keep an eye out in the future.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 14


Sunday - Dec, 13

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 7-1 UNDER as an underdog
Cincinnati: 7-1 ATS as a favorite

Buffalo at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 14-5 UNDER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49
Philadelphia: 8-19 ATS at home where the total is between 45.5 and 49

Atlanta at Carolina, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 0-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Carolina: 7-1 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest

San Francisco at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
San Francisco: 0-9 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42
Cleveland: 28-10 UNDER as a home favorite of 3 points or less

Washington at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Washington: 2-8 ATS off 2 or more consecutive unders
Chicago: 61-50 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3

Detroit at St Louis, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 8-1 UNDER after a loss by 10 or more points
St Louis: 9-21 ATS after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

San Diego at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 0-6 ATS revenging a loss against opponent
Kansas City: 6-0 ATS after 2 games with a turnover margin of +1 or better

New Orleans at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 16-5 ATS on road after allowing 175 or more rush yds last game
Tampa Bay: 71-49 UNDER as a home favorite

Indianapolis at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 5-1 ATS after allowing 40 points or more last game
Jacksonville: 1-6 ATS after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game

Tennessee at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 16-5 ATS after gaining 200 or more rushing yards last game
New York: 72-100 ATS after playing their last game on the road

New England at Houston, 8:30 ET
New England: 12-3 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Houston: 16-4 OVER as a home underdog of 3 points or less

Oakland at Denver, 4:05 ET
Oakland: 29-55 ATS in December games
Denver: 23-11 ATS in games played on a grass field

Dallas at Green Bay, 4:25 ET
Dallas: 16-31 ATS in road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3
Green Bay: 58-37 ATS off a road win

Seattle at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Seattle: 14-6 ATS after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games
Baltimore: 1-3 ATS after a loss by 6 or less points


Monday - Dec, 14

NY Giants at Miami, 8:30 ET
New York: 19-7 ATS against AFC East division opponents
Miami: 2-10 ATS after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 14


Sunday's games
Steelers (7-5) @ Bengals (10-2)-- Cincy (even) won 16-10 at Pittsburgh in Week 8, its first win in last four series games; series was swept in six of last eight years. Steelers are 4-1 in last five visits here. Steelers won three of last four games, scoring 30+ points all four games- they're 2-3 on road (1-2-1 as road dogs) with their only road wins at woeful Rams/Chargers. Bengals are 4-1-1 as home favorites this year; they won glorified scrimmages last couple of weeks over Rams/Browns by total of 68-10; they're 10-1-1 vs spread this year. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 14-24-3 vs spread. Three of last four Pitt games went over the total; five of last six Bengal games stayed under. Teams are 3-6-2 vs spread this year week after playing Indianapolis.

Bills (6-6) @ Eagles (5-7)-- LeSean McCoy returns to Philly with Buffalo squad playing its fourth road game in five weeks; Bills are 5-0 this year with positive turnover ratio, 1-6 in its other games. Eagles have only three takeaways (-5) in last four games. Eagles snapped skid at Foxboro LY, scoring two special teams TDs and one on defense- they're 5-1 when they score 24+ points, 0-6 when they don't. Bills held four of last five opponents to 21 or less points. Buffalo won five of last seven series games; their last visit here was in '07. Average total in first half of last four Eagle games: 32.5. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 7-12 vs spread, 4-5 at home; AFC East road favorites are 3-6. Five of last seven Buffalo games, four of last five Philly games went over total.

Falcons (6-6) @ Panthers (12-0)-- Skidding Atlanta lost six of last seven games, four of its last five losses were by 4 or less points. Falcons lost four of last five games with Carolina; three of four losses were by 10+ points. Atlanta is 5-4 in last nine visits here. Falcons split six road games; this is first time they're underdog since first two weeks (2-0) of this season. Carolina scored 39.3 ppg in last three games; they're 3-2 as home favorites; four of its six home wins are by 8 or less points. Panthers ran ball for 148.7 ypg last three weeks; they trailed at halftime LW for first time this season. Underdogs covered five of six NFC South divisional games this year. Last six Atlanta games stayed under the total; eight of last ten Carolina games went over.

49ers (4-8) @ Browns (2-10)-- Cleveland goes back to Manziel at QB; they've lost seven games in row (0-6 vs spread in last six), allowing 30+ points in last five-they've run ball for 50.6 ypg in last five games. 49ers are 2-2 (3-1 against spread) with Gabbert at QB, winning in OT LW at Chicago, their first road win in six tries- they're 4-0 vs spread when scoring 20+ points, 2-6 when they don't. Browns won two of three series games, with average total of 27.3 in three games. Cleveland is 1-4 in games decided by 7 or less points. AFC North non-divisional home teams are 10-5 vs spread; NFC West road teams are 6-9. Four of last six 49er games, three of last four Cleveland games stayed under the total, but five of six SF road games went over.

Redskins (5-7) @ Bears (5-7)-- Both teams lost on last play LW, Chicago missing 35-yard FG on last play of regulation before losing in OT, Redskins losing to Dallas Monday night on late FG. Redskins are still tied for first in NFC East; they're 11-2 in last 13 series games, winning last five, four by 4 or less points- they won six of last seven visits here. Eight of last nine Chicago games were decided by four or less points or in OT; they're 1-5 at home, with only win 22-20 over Oakland. Washington is 0-5 on road, 1-4 vs spread, losing by an average of 32-17. NFC East non-divisional road teams are 5-8 vs spread; NFC North home teams are 9-7. Four of six Chicago home games went over total. Jay Cutler's brother-in-law has been missing for over a week; not sure if that is affecting his play.

Lions (4-8) @ Rams (4-8)-- Detroit is 3-1 since its bye, losing on a 61-yard Hail Mary LW to Green Bay; they've had three extra days to prep here. Rams are in freefall, losing five in a row (0-5 vs spread), firing their OC Monday. Lions are 1-3 on road; this is only their third true road game since Week 2. Detroit won six of last nine series games, last of which was a 27-23 win in Fisher's first game as Rams' coach in 2012. Keenum is expected to start at QB for Rams' squad that scored five TDs on 63 drives in last five games; there won't be many people at this game, with Rams rumored to be headed to LA. NFC North non-divisional road teams are 8-5 vs spread; NFC West home teams are 8-7. Six of last eight Detroit games went over total; seven of last eight St Louis games stayed under.

Chargers (3-9) @ Chiefs (7-5)-- KC (-3) crushed Chargers 33-3 at Qualcomm three weeks ago, outgaining Bolts 385-201; they've won three in row vs San Diego, after losing 11 of 13 to Chargers before that. Chiefs won/covered their last six games- they're +15 in turnovers in those six, after being -2 in first six games. San Diego covered last three road games; they are 1-4 on road, with only one road loss by more than seven points. KC scored three TDs in 4th quarter at Oakland LW, with defensive score and TD drives of 13-2 yards- they picked Carr off three times in fourth quarter. Home teams are 0-7 SU/ATS in AFC West divisional games this year. Three of last four Charger games stayed under total; over is 3-1-1 in last five Chief games.

Saints (4-8) @ Buccaneers (6-6)-- Winston got first NFL win at Superdome back in Week 2 with 26-19 (+9) win, snapping 7-game skid vs Saints, who won last three visits here, by 7-2-3 points. Bucs are 5-3 in last eight games, allowing one TD on 21 drives in last two home games; they're 5-1 allowing 20 or less points, 1-5 if they allow more. Saints lost last four in row, allowing 36.5 ppg; they're 1-5 on road, with four losses by 12+ points- their only road win was 27-21 at Indy. New Orleans is 0-3 outdoors, outscored 113-53; they've allowed 23 TDs on last 55 drives, gave up 189 rushing ypg in last three games. Underdogs covered five of six NFC South divisional games. Six of last eight Saint games went over total; three of Bucs' last four games stayed under.

Colts (6-6) @ Jaguars (4-8)-- Indy was outgained 431-321, ran for only 60 yards in 16-13 OT win over Jaguars at home in Week 4, their sixth series win in row. Colts won last three visits here, by 27-10/37-3/44-17, they're 3-0 in division games this year, winning by 2-3-7 points, 3-3 on road, winning by 2-7-3. Jax lost last two games despite scoring 64 points in losses by 6-3 points; their last six games were all decided by 6 or less points. Jags are 2-3 at home, beating Miami/Titans. Hasselbeck has rib separation, is expected to play; backup is veteran standby Whitehurst. Over is 5-3 in last eight Indy games, 6-2 in last eight Jax tilts. Home teams are 5-2 SU in AFC South games this year. Jaguars missed two PATs and two-point play in 42-39 loss at Tennessee LW- not good to score six TDs and still lose.

Titans (3-9) @ Jets (7-5)-- Gang Green rallied from behind to beat Giants in OT LW; they are +14 in turnovers in their seven wins, -13 in six losses- Jets are 4-3 as home faves; they are 6-1 when scoring 23+ points, 1-4 when they don't. Tennessee scored 42-34-42 points in its three wins; they're -8 in turnovers; 2-2 as road dogs- five of their last seven games were decided by 6 or less points. Titans are 1-7 vs spread when scoring less than 33. Underdogs are 1-3 vs spread week after playing Jaguars. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 6-3-1 vs spread; AFC South road underdogs are 6-7. Under is 4-2-1 in last seven Tennessee games, 3-1 in last four Jet games. Jets have been outscored in second half only one time all year, in Week 7 loss to the Patriots (9-1-2).

Raiders (5-7) @ Broncos (10-2)-- Denver (-5.5) won 16-10 at Oakland in Week 5, the only NFL game this year where team won despite not scoring offenisve TD; neither team gained 300 yards in game, Denver's 8th straight series win (seven by 13+). Raiders lost last three visits to Mile High City, 37-6/37-21/47-14; they lost three of last four games, are 3-0 as a road underdog this year, with road losses by 2-3-5 points (3-3SU). Denver won all three of Osweiler's starts, running ball for 161.3 ypg- they're 1-2 as home favorites. Broncos are -7 in turnovers in their losses, +10 in wins; Raiders turned ball over 11 times in their last five games (-5). Home sides are 0-7 SU/ATS in AFC West games this year. Over is 4-1-2 in the last seven Oakland games.

Seahawks (7-5) @ Ravens (4-8)-- Seattle won/covered last three games; they scored average of 34.5 ppg in last four games- they ran ball for 176 ypg last three weeks, allowed one TD on 28 drives in winning last three road games, by 17-1-31 points. Baltimore has problems at QB; backup Schaub is banged up, which would leave Clausen as QB- he lost 26-0 to Seattle in Week 3 while starting for Bears. All 12 Raven games have been decided by eight or less points- they're 3-1 as an underdog. Home side won last four series games; Seattle lost last two visits here 31-24/44-41ot. AFC North non-divisional home teams are 8-6 vs spread; NFC West road favorites are 4-3. Last four Seattle games went over total; three of last four Raven games stayed under.

Cowboys (4-8) @ Packers (8-4)-- Green Bay needed 61-yard Hail Mary to win in Detroit LW, just second win in last six games; they lost last two home games by total of six points. Pack is 3-3 as home favorite, failing to cover last three. Cowboys held four of last six foes to 16 or less points, winning last two road games; they're 2-3 as road dogs, but 1-7 SU with backup QB starting. Packers won last four series games, beating Pokes 26-21 in playoffs LY. Dallas lost eight of last nine visits here, with win in '08. NFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 3-7; NFC North home favorites are 7-3. Seven of last nine Dallas games, three of last four Packer games stayed under total. Green Bay is 5-23 on third down last couple weeks; they had three extra days to prep here after Thursday night win.

Patriots (10-2) @ Texans (6-6)-- New England lost last two games, blowing 14-point leads in both; they gave up two special teams TDs in home loss LW. Pats won five of six series games, with average total of 56.8- they won two of three visits here, with both wins by FG. O'Brien/Hoyer are former Patriots. Houston won four of last five games, allowing 17 or less points in the wins- they won last three road games, allowing 9.7 ppg. Pats are 1-3 as road favorites- four of their five road wins by 7+ points. AFC South non-divisional home dogs are 5-3 vs spread. Houston is tied atop AFC South despite starting three different QBs this year; they're +7 in turnovers last seven games, after being -8 in first five games. Four of last five Texan games stayed under total.


Monday's game
Giants (5-7) @ Dolphins (5-7)-- Giants have lost four games in last minute when they had lead, most by any team since 1970. Big Blue lost last three games, all by 6 or less points- they're 1-2 on natural grass, scoring 17.8 ppg. Miami lost four of last six games, with two wins by total of three points- they're 2-2 at home. Giants ran ball for only 62.3 ypg in last three games; they won five of last seven series games, winning 19-14/17-7 in last two visits here- last seven series totals were 37 or less. NFC East non-divisional road teams are 5-8 vs spread; AFC East home teams are 7-7-1. Last three Giant games, three of last four Miami games stayed under total. Teams have same record, but Miami is playing out string, while Giants are tied for first place, despite blowing those late leads.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 14


Washington @ Chicago

Game 113-114
December 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
128.798
Chicago
133.829
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 5
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 3
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(-3); Over

Detroit @ St. Louis

Game 115-116
December 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
131.974
St. Louis
125.989
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 6
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St. Louis
by 1
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+1); Over

San Diego @ Kansas City

Game 117-118
December 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
125.264
Kansas City
146.266
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 21
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 10
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-10); Under

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay

Game 119-120
December 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
125.015
Tampa Bay
132.911
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 8
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 3 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-3 1/2); Under

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville

Game 121-122
December 13, 2015 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
130.003
Jacksonville
126.143
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 4
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
N/A

Tennessee @ NY Jets

Game 123-124
December 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
124.450
NY Jets
134.806
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Jets
by 10 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Jets
by 7
43
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(-7); Over

New England @ Houston

Game 125-126
December 13, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
140.943
Houston
134.913
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 6
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 3
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-3); Over

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

Game 105-106
December 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
138.369
Cincinnati
144.418
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 6
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 3
50
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(-3); Under

Oakland @ Denver

Game 127-128
December 13, 2015 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
128.492
Denver
140.343
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 12
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 7
43
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-7); Over

Buffalo @ Philadelphia

Game 107-108
December 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
135.897
Philadelphia
131.738
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 4
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 1
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(-1); Over

Dallas @ Green Bay

Game 129-130
December 13, 2015 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
131.912
Green Bay
137.532
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 5 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 7 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+7 1/2); Over

Atlanta @ Carolina

Game 109-110
December 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
126.513
Carolina
143.102
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 16 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 7 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-7 1/2); Over

Seattle @ Baltimore

Game 131-132
December 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
141.027
Baltimore
129.646
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 11 1/2
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
N/A

San Francisco @ Cleveland

Game 111-112
December 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
129.954
Cleveland
121.955
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 8
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 2
41
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+2); Under



NY Giants @ Miami

Game 133-134
December 14, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
127.456
Miami
130.791
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 3 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 1 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+1 1/2); Under

 

[CNOTES]

TNF - Vikings at Cardinals
December 10, 2015




Overshadowed by Seattle, Green Bay and even Philadelphia when the season began, Arizona and Minnesota enter Thursday night’s blockbuster in the hunt for the NFC’s No. 2 seed. The Cardinals (10-2) reside there now, but the Vikings (8-4), currently No. 5, have an opportunity to finish strong and claim the bye that comes with the slot directly behind the league’s lone unbeaten, Carolina.


All eyes are already on the upcoming playoffs that kick off this time next month. Those who aren’t in are scheming on how to get there. Those who have their spot all but secured, as these two appear to, hope to carve out the easiest possible road. Watching the postseason’s opening weekend from home as others are eliminated would certainly simplify things, which makes this Thursday-nighter one of the most important games we’ll see the rest of the regular season, much less this week.


Because both the Steelers and Texans would lose tie-breakers and find themselves on the outside looking in if the postseason began today, this is the only matchup we’ll see in Week 14 between teams currently entrenched in playoff spots.


Sporting a 4-1 mark at home thus far, Arizona has been made a 8.5-point favorite at most shops after opening at -7. Why so steep? Beyond momentum and health concerns, the setting itself may be a problem. Although the Vikings come in 4-2 on the road, having won its last four games outside Minnesota. Of their victims, Detroit, Chicago, Oakland and Atlanta, only the slumping Falcons are at .500. The Vikings are also 0-2 in night games under second-year coach Mike Zimmer, outscored by a combined margin of 62-13 in a Thursday night loss at Green Bay last season and this season’s opening Monday night setback in San Francisco.


Making this challenge all the more daunting is that neither side of the ball is playing as well, coming off a 38-7 home loss to Seattle that was the Vikings’ worst of the season. Adrian Peterson, the NFL’s leading rusher, is clamoring for more carries after a season-low eight for 18 carries against the Seahawks. He spouted off about Zimmer and his staff being outcoached and wants the football against an Arizona defense that surrenders an average of just 89.0 rushing yards per game, good for fourth-lowest in the league. In Peterson’s defense, Minnesota hasn’t lost a game in which he receives at least 19 carries. The four times he’s gotten the ball handed to him less than 19 times, the Vikings are 0-4.


Second-year QB Teddy Bridgewater is certainly best-suited to be more of a game manager at this point in his development, but will be challenged to beat teams who feel their best course of action is to stack the box to try and corral Peterson, leaving Vikes receivers to one-on-one matchups. Seattle took advantage, and afterward, speedy linebacker Bruce Irvin opined that while Bridgewater is “going to do some big things in this league,” the Seahawks defense had him “scared.”


Bridgewater threw for a season-low 118 yards against Seattle, who pestered him into an interception and also coaxed a career-low averaged of 4.2 yards per pass out of him. Although he lost consecutive starts on three occasions as a rookie, he’s yet to suffer back-to-back setbacks this season and will attempt to rebound here. He’s had productive road games against solid defenses in Denver and Detroit already this season, but hasn’t had much chemistry with his receivers in recent weeks.


The Cardinals, who know division rival Seattle’s defensive tendencies inside and out, undoubtedly picked up on a number of coverage schemes that could come in handy for them after being so effective last week. Arizona’s ‘no fly zone’ secondary helps the team rank third in the NFL with 16 interceptions. Starting corner Jerraud Powers will miss his second consecutive game with a calf injury, but Justin Bethel held up well last week in his place. No. 1 CB Patrick Peterson is among the best at his position, safety Tyrann Mathieu was the NFC Defensive Player of the Month in November and moneybacker Deone Bucannon has been impressive in a hybrid role. Safety Rashad Johnson, who has a team-best five interceptions, has been upgraded to probable and practiced fully on Wednesday, rebounding from an ankle injury.


Although DE Frostee Rucker (ankle) will miss another game, the Cardinals defense is as healthy as it has been in weeks with DT Cory Redding due back from his own ankle injury. The same can’t be said about the Vikings, whose defense ranks among the best in the NFL but is currently a shell of its usual self.


Standout nose tackle Linval Joseph, a key run stuffer, will miss his second consecutive game with a foot injury. Harrison Smith, one of the league’s top safeties and the team’s leading tackler when he originally got hurt, returned against Seattle after a nagging knee injury and almost immediately injured his hamstring. LB Anthony Barr, the ninth overall pick in 2014 who currently ranks second with 61 tackles, suffered a groin injury early against Seattle and isn’t healthy enough to play. Sack leader Everson Griffen (hip) isn’t 100 percent.


According to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, promising Sharrif Floyd should get a second consecutive start Joseph, with backup Tom Johnson starting at Floyd's customary spot, but the Vikings didn't have a single safety healthy enough to practice on Monday. Antone Exum, who started against the Falcons two weeks ago and was one of the keys to victory, went on IR on Tuesday due to multiple injuries. Andrew Sendejo, who ranks fifth on the Vikings in tackles, is also out with a knee injury. Another key safety, Robert Blanton (knee) is questionable to play and would really put the team in a major bind if absent.


"This is the NFL. Guys get banged up all the time," Zimmer said earlier this week. "We're not the only team that has guys hurt. So we line up and go play."


The problem is they’re lining up against an offense that leads the NFL in scoring (31.8) and yardage, currently the only team to rack up over 5,000. Carson Palmer’s 29 touchdown passes rank second in the league to only Tom Brady (31), and he’s got a variety of weapons available to him at receiver and tight end. His options aren’t as vast at running back since Chris Johnson (knee) is out the rest of the way unless Arizona makes the Super Bowl and Andre Ellington has again been ruled out with a nagging toe injury. Rookie David Johnson set personal bests with 22 carries for 99 yards and scored on a catch out of the backfield in last week’s 27-3 win over St. Louis, so head coach Bruce Arians is confident there won’t be much of a drop-off.


The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened this total at 46 on Monday and the early morning has added a hook to the total (46 ½). Minnesota hasn’t played in a game with a total this high all season and VegasInsider.com NFL Totals expert Chris David believes you could argue low or high for this game.


“Arizona owns the best offensive numbers in the league this season and that production has led to an 8-4 ‘over’ mark. However, the Cardinals have gone ‘under’ their last two games and those results have been dictated by a strong defense (8 PPG) and they’ve run the ball 37 and 36 times, which is much higher than their season average of 28.8 attempts per game.”


“Zimmer and the Vikings would prefer this ground-and-pound style and it will be interesting to see if Arians and the Cardinals try to knock heads for the third straight game,” added David. “While ‘Zona has leaned ‘over’ this season, the Vikings have been a great ‘under’ (9-2-1) bet. Minnesota’s offense isn’t explosive and the defense is very solid but if you delve into the numbers further, we could be fooled by this unit. Looking at the Vikings schedule, you could argue that they only played two elite quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson) and they gave up 30 and 38 points. I wouldn’t necessarily put Palmer into this category but he’s having a MVP-type season.”


Even though last week’s Packers-Lions game went ‘over’ on the Rodgers-to-Rodgers Hail Mary, total bettors should note that the ‘under’ had cashed in the seven previous games played on Thursday.


This will be Arizona’s fourth game played under the lights this season and it has seen the ‘over’ go 2-1 in the first three games, which was helped by the Cardinals scoring 26, 39 and 34 points. Game-time temperatures are expected to be mild, so weather won’t be a factor considering the roof at University of Phoenix Stadium closes in inclement weather.

 

[CNOTES]

Tech Trends - Week 14
December 10, 2015


THURSDAY, DEC. 10


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MINNESOTA at ARIZONA (NFL NETWORK, 8:25 p.m. ET)
Vikings have covered five straight on road this season and are 14-4 vs. the number their last 18 on the board since mid 2014. Cardinals surprisingly no covers last three this season at Glendale.
Tech Edge: Vikings, based on team trends.




SUNDAY, DEC. 13
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Steelers 4-1 SU, 3-1-1 vs. line last five vs. Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium. But Cincy a remarkable 10-1-1 vs. line in 2015 including a win and cover at Pittsburgh.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals, based on recent trends.




NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
BUFFALO at PHILADELPHIA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Eagles just 2-5 vs. spread last seven at Linc. Birds “over” last three and four of last five in 2015, Bills “over” 7-4 last 11. Buffalo has only covered one of last five on road this season.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on recent “totals” trends.




NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ATLANTA at CAROLINA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcons no covers last eight this season, Panthers 11-4-1 vs. number last 16 reg.-season games. Falcons “under” 9-2-1 this season, though Panthers “over” 8-3-1 in 2015.
Tech Edge: Panthers, based on team trends.




NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN FRANCISCO at CLEVELAND (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Browns winless SU last seven this season and no covers last six. Cleveland also “over” 5-1 as host this season. Niners have covered last two, three of last four, and five of last eight in 2015.
Tech Edge: 49ers and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.




NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
WASHINGTON at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Redskins 0-5 SU, 1-4 vs. line away this season, winless SU last nine away and 2-7 vs. spread in those games. Bears 5-2-2 last nine vs. spread in 2015.
Tech Edge: Bears, based on Redskins road woes.




NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DETROIT at ST. LOUIS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Lions had won and covered three straight before last-second loss to pack. Rams 0-4-1 vs. number last five this season, also “under” 7-1 last 8 in 2015.
Tech Edge: Lions and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.




NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN DIEGO at KANSAS CITY (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Chargers have covered last three on road this season but still just 6-17 vs. points last 23 on board since early 2014. Chiefs have won and covered six straight in 2015.
Tech Edge: Chiefs, based on recent trends.




NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ORLEANS at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Saints no covers four of last five TY. Saints 10-17-1 last 28 on board since last season. Bucs 4-1 vs. line last five in series, and have covered 3 of last 4 as host this year after dropping 8 of previous ten vs. spread as host.
Tech Edge: Bucs, based on team and series trends.




NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
INDIANAPOLIS at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jags “over” 9-4 last 13 since late 2014. Colts had covered five straight in series prior to 16-13 win and non-cover back on Oct. 4. Indy had covered 6 of last 7 TY prior to last week’s loss at Steelers.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.




NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TENNESSE at N.Y. JETS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Titans have not covered two in a row since the start of the 2013 season. Titans 3-11-1 vs. spread last 15 away from Nashville.
Tech Edge: Jets, based on team trends.




NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SEATTLE at BALTIMORE (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Seahawks now 19-4-1 vs. line in last seven reg.-season games since 2012. Ravens 20-1 vs. line last three this season but 0-7-1 vs. spread last eight at home.
Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on team trends.




NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
OAKLAND at DENVER (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Broncos have won and covered last eight in series. Raiders “over” 12-3 since late 2014.
Tech Edge: Broncos and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.




NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DALLAS at GREEN BAY (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Pack 2-5 vs. line last seven in 2015 and one play away from 1-6 last seven (last-play win vs. Lions last week). All after winning covering first five games this season and 9-1-1 previous 11 vs. line as host. Also no covers last three at Lambeau Field. Dallas just 4-8 vs. spread in 2015.
Tech Edge: Slight to Pack, based on extended trends.




NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ENGLAND at HOUSTON (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Patriots no covers last four this season (0-3-1) but are “over” last 2 and “over” 60-32-1 in reg.-season games since late 2009. Houston 4-1 SU and vs. line last five this season, and Texans “over” 8-4-1 last 13 since late 2014.
Tech Edge: Texans and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.




MONDAY, DEC. 14
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
N.Y. GIANTS at MIAMI (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Giants had covered 7 of first 10 this season before dropping last two. G-Men 7-4 “over” last 11 on road. Dolphins 1-5 vs. line last six this season, 1-6 last seven vs. spread at Sun Life Stadium.
Tech Edge: Giants and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

 

[CNOTES]

Vikings look to upset Cardinals
December 8, 2015



MINESOTA VIKINGS (8-4) at ARIZONA CARDINALS (10-2)


Kickoff: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Arizona -7.5, Total: 45.5


The Vikings are coming off of an embarrassing 38-7 loss at home against the Seahawks and the team has now lost two of its past three games, with both being at home.


The Cardinals, meanwhile, demolished the Rams 27-3 as 3.5-point road favorites. Arizona has won five straight games SU and three of the past five games ATS. These teams have met just 13 times since 1992 and the Vikings are 10-3 SU and 8-5 ATS in the series.


They have not played one another since Oct. 21, 2012, when the Vikings beat the Cardinals 21-14 as 6.5-point home favorites.


One thing favoring Minnesota in this game is the fact that the team is 10-0 ATS versus teams averaging 260 or more passing yard per game after eight or more games over the past three seasons. Arizona, however, is 15-6 ATS versus conference opponents over the past two seasons.


DT Linval Joseph (Foot) is questionable for the Vikings in this game and RB Andre Ellington (Toe), CB Jerraud Powers (Calf) and DE Frostee Rucker (Ankle) are questionable for the Cardinals, who are already without LB LaMarr Woodley (Chest) for the season and RB Chris Johnson (Leg) indefinitely.


The Vikings are an old school football team that is winning games with defense and a potent rushing game. Minnesota is allowing just 19.3 PPG (t-4th in NFL) and is rushing for 136.8 YPG (5th in NFL).


Adrian Peterson is the reason for the Vikings’ daunted rushing attack, racking up 1,182 yards with eight touchdowns on the ground this season. He did, however, rush for just 18 yards on eight carries in a loss to the Seahawks last week. Peterson was not happy with the amount of carries he received, so it is very likely that the Vikings pound away against the Cardinals on Thursday.


One guy who must be better in Thursday’s game is Teddy Bridgewater. He has thrown for just 2,398 yards with eight touchdowns and eight interceptions on the season and had just 118 yards with no touchdowns and one pick against the Seahawks a week ago.


The team fell behind early and needed him to throw the ball more effectively and that was not the case. The Vikings cannot keep playing at a high level without some more competent quarterbacking.


The Cardinals have been one of the most dominant teams in the NFL on both sides of the ball, putting up 31.8 PPG (1st in NFL) and allowing just 19.3 PPG (t-4th in NFL). The guy that is in charge of operating the NFL’s best offense is Carson Palmer.


He has put himself in the discussion for MVP this season, throwing for 3,693 yards with 29 touchdowns and just nine interceptions. He threw for 356 yards with two touchdowns and no picks in a win over the Rams last week and will be looking to stay mistake-free against the Vikings on Thursday.


One guy that could help him is rookie David Johnson, who took over as the starting running back against the Rams. Johnson has needed to play more due to injuries, but he certainly delivered last Sunday. Johnson rushed for 99 yards on 22 carries in that game and also caught two passes for 21 yards and a touchdown. If he can continue to perform at a high level then this offense will not be missing Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington very much.