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Fact or Fiction

February 28, 2014


Up until this point in the season, there was no certainty as to who was going to be on any roster on any given night. Now that the trade deadline has come and gone, we know what those rosters are going to look like for the rest of the campaign. Today, we'll look at the truths and the untruths for NBA betting fans about the deadline which just passed.

FACT

The Los Angeles Clippers Made Themselves Much Better With Buyouts: Picking up F Glen Davis and F Danny Granger is really going to help the Clips out come playoff time. Don't expect either to make a massive splash right now, but both are veteran presences who have led playoff teams in the past, and in the West, when you can bring those guys off of the bench, you know you've done your overall depth a major solid. The fact of the matter is that head coach Doc Rivers, when his team is healthy, will have G Jamal Crawford, G Darren Collison, F Jared Dudley, F Hedo Turkoglu, Davis, and Granger to choose from off of his bench. That's simply amazing, even if neither Davis nor Granger turn out to be studs as they were in their previous locations.

Tanking Is Happening in the NBA: Commissioner Adam Silver doesn't want to hear it, but he just has to look at the 76ers to see just how badly teams are tanking this year. The Sixers gave up 130 points to the BUCKS for crying out loud. They've lost 12 straight games by an average of 19.5 points per game, and that's just inexcusable when you're talking about professionals. Philly is tanking as quickly as it can, and there is just no way around that fact. This won't be the worst team in NBA history, but it might be the worst streak the league has ever seen when it is said and done with.

The Time is Now for the Portland Trail Blazers To Make Their Move: It's a move which is there for the taking. Portland is three back of the Thunder for the best record in the West, and what's coming up are three games in a row which should all be easy wins, even with all of the injuries the team has recently incurred. If the Blazers can just get F LaMarcus Aldridge back next week and get back to playing their game, they should have seven wins in a row and could find themselves just a game or two in back of the recently struggling Thunder.

FICTION

The Oklahoma City Thunder Are Going To Be Fine Eventually: One is an accident. Two is a trend. Three, and Lucy, we got a problem. The Thunder have lost three straight at home, and they have lost all three as favorites, most recently by 10 and 15-point chalk against the Cavs. The fact of the matter is that this club has completely fallen out of its groove, and it's really thanks to the loss of C Kendrick Perkins to injury and the return of G Russell Westbrook. However, we aren't all that sure that this Thunder outfit has the time to get it right again. There are just too many great teams in the West to make me believe that this chemistry issue will be rectified any time soon. We think that OKC is a quick out in the postseason this year unless KD and Westbrook can figure out a way to succeed with each of them on the hardwood at the same time. I read somewhere about how great a swap Westbrook for Rose would be. Think about that for a second…

The Miami Heat are Going to Be the #1 Seed in the East: Everyone is just assuming that the Heat with their newly masked LeBron James will end up overtaking the Pacers in the East. I just don't see it. Indiana's next four are all games in which it will be favored in, and then after going through Houston and Dallas, what's next are games against Boston, Philly, Detroit, Philly again, and New York. The only road game left against one of the best five teams in the league is a game at Miami on April 11th, and by that point, the Pacers very well could have the top seed in the East all but wrapped.

A Porous Defense is Going To Do In the Dallas Mavericks: The Mavs are 13-games above .500, and there is a good chance that they are going to end up getting into the playoffs in the rough and tumble Western Conference this year. Many are going to assume that getting into the second season and winning there is going to require a great defensive mindset. However, with the way this team is built, especially with F Dirk Nowitzki and G Monta Ellis as the two main features, defense can be optional. The Mavericks have an offense shooting 47.4 percent from the field, and the team is good for an effective shooting percentage of over 53 percent, which is downright nuts. That's why the Mavericks are okay allowing teams to score 102.1 points per game, and though they aren't going to necessarily end up winning the whole enchilada with this formula, the defense isn't going to be their ultimate demise.
 

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Road team smart bet ATS between Wizards and 76ers


In the past six meetings between the Washington Wizards and the Philadelphia 76ers, the road team has covered the spread every time.

Between the Wizards' stellar road record against the spread - 21-8 - and the 76ers' abysmal home ATS record - 8-22 - that trend looks like it could continue Saturday.
The visiting Wizards open as 10.5 point favorites against the 76ers Saturday.
 

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Pacers and Celtics bring their tight defense to Boston

When the Indiana Pacers and Boston Celtics meet you can expect a tightly contested defensive affair. In the past five meetings between the Pacers and Celtics, the teams have gone under all five times.

The No.1 and No. 10 scoring defenses will clash when the Pacers and Celtics open with an O/U of 193.5 Saturday.
 

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No Cousins affects both the Kings and bettors

The Sacramento Kings are not the same team without DeMarcus Cousins and that shows up on the spread.

“He is probably worth 2 maybe 2.5 points to the spread. The Kings are 0-8 without him” says Michael Stewart of Carbonsports.ag

The Kings will be 2.5 point road favortes when they play the LA Lakers Friday.
 

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Saturday, March 1


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WASHINGTON (30 - 28) at PHILADELPHIA (15 - 43) - 3/1/2014, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 119-89 ATS (+21.1 Units) when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 77-60 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in road games this season.
WASHINGTON is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
WASHINGTON is 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
WASHINGTON is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 22-36 ATS (-17.6 Units) in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 24-48 ATS (-28.8 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 20-34 ATS (-17.4 Units) as an underdog this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in home games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 8-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 6-4 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ORLANDO (18 - 42) at MIAMI (41 - 14) - 3/1/2014, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 25-34 ATS (-12.4 Units) in all games this season.
ORLANDO is 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) in road games this season.
ORLANDO is 76-104 ATS (-38.4 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent since 1996.
ORLANDO is 40-54 ATS (-19.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 6-5 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 9-2 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (23 - 35) at HOUSTON (39 - 19) - 3/1/2014, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (44 - 13) at BOSTON (20 - 39) - 3/1/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in home games in March games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 33-23 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games this season.
INDIANA is 64-43 ATS (+16.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 41-28 ATS (+10.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 34-55 ATS (-26.5 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
BOSTON is 77-112 ATS (-46.2 Units) in home games after scoring 105 points or more since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 4-4 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 4-4 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BROOKLYN (27 - 29) at MILWAUKEE (11 - 46) - 3/1/2014, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 24-33 ATS (-12.3 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 22-31 ATS (-12.1 Units) as an underdog this season.
MILWAUKEE is 26-45 ATS (-23.5 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) in home games second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 120-161 ATS (-57.1 Units) on Saturday games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 17-26 ATS (-11.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
MILWAUKEE is 65-92 ATS (-36.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 6-3 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 5-4 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (24 - 36) at MEMPHIS (32 - 25) - 3/1/2014, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
MEMPHIS is 84-66 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 11-20 ATS (-11.0 Units) in home games this season.
MEMPHIS is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-1 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (28 - 29) at SACRAMENTO (20 - 38) - 3/1/2014, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent this season.
MINNESOTA is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) in road games after playing 3 consecutive road games since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
SACRAMENTO is 17-36 ATS (-22.6 Units) in home games on Saturday games since 1996.
SACRAMENTO is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 4-4 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
SACRAMENTO is 4-4 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (25 - 32) at PORTLAND (40 - 18) - 3/1/2014, 10:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 8-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 6-4 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (23 - 35) at LA CLIPPERS (40 - 20) - 3/1/2014, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 5-4 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 7-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 

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Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, March 1


Hot teams
-- Miami won its last six games (5-0-1 vs spread).
-- Wizards won last five games, last one in triple OT.
-- Rockets won ten of their last twelve games.
-- Pacers won last three games, are 1-4-1 vs spread in last six.
-- Cavaliers won eight of their last eleven games. Memphis won five of its last seven games.
-- Trailblazers won last four games, covered last three.
-- Minnesota won four of its last five games.
-- Clippers won five of their last seven games.

Cold Teams
-- Magic lost five of its last seven games.
-- 76ers lost their last 12 games (3-9 vs spread).
-- Pistons lost six of their last seven games.
-- Celtics lost five of their last six games.
-- Milwaukee lost seven of last nine games, but covered five of last six. Nets are 3-5 in their last eight road games.
-- Denver lost nine of its last ten games.
-- Sacramento lost six of its last nine games.
-- New Orleans lost its last six games (1-4-1 vs spread).

Series records
-- Heat won its last seven games with Orlando.
-- Wizards lost five of last six visits to Philadelphia.
-- Rockets won their last six games with Detroit.
-- Pacers are 2-0 vs Boston this season, winning by 15-27 points.
-- Nets won their last four games with Milwaukee.
-- Grizzlies won four of last five games with Cleveland.
-- Blazers are 3-0 vs Denver this year, winning by 15-5-5 points.
-- Kings won five of last seven games with Minnesota.
-- Clippers won seven of last eight games with New Orleans.

Totals
-- Six of last eight Orlando-Miami games went over total.
-- Six of last eight Washington-Philly games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Detroit games went over the total.
-- Over is 4-0-1 in last five Indiana games.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Brooklyn games; five of Milwaukee's last six games went over.
-- Seven of last eight Cleveland games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Denver games stayed under total.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Minnesota games; five of last seven King games went over.
-- 12 of last 18 Pelican-Clipper games went over total.
 

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Saturday, March 1


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Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games when playing Philadelphia
Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Washington

7:30 PM
ORLANDO vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing Miami
Orlando is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games

8:00 PM
INDIANA vs. BOSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing Boston
Indiana is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Boston is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Boston's last 13 games at home

8:00 PM
DETROIT vs. HOUSTON
Detroit is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 10 games when playing Houston
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Houston is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games

8:30 PM
BROOKLYN vs. MILWAUKEE
Brooklyn is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Milwaukee
Brooklyn is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Brooklyn
Milwaukee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home

9:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. MEMPHIS
Cleveland is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing Memphis
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Memphis
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Memphis's last 8 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Memphis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland

10:00 PM
DENVER vs. PORTLAND
Denver is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games
Denver is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Portland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 6 games when playing Denver
Portland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home

10:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. SACRAMENTO
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Sacramento
Minnesota is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
Sacramento is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Sacramento's last 10 games when playing at home against Minnesota

10:30 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. LA CLIPPERS
New Orleans is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the LA Clippers last 6 games
LA Clippers are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games at home
 

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Saturday, March 1


Washington at Philadelphia, 7:35 ET
Washington: 11-2 ATS after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games
Philadelphia: 3-12 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive unders

Orlando at Miami, 7:35 ET
Orlando: 9-19 ATS as a road underdog
Miami: 19-9 ATS after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more

Detroit at Houston, 8:05 ET
Detroit: 7-18 ATS against Southwest division opponents
Houston: 9-2 ATS off a road loss

Indiana at Boston, 8:05 ET
Indiana: 25-11 ATS after 2 or more consecutive overs
Boston: 8-19 ATS against Central division opponents

Brooklyn at Milwaukee, 8:35 ET
Brooklyn: 18-5 ATS off a road blowout win by 20 points or more
Milwaukee: 5-13 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days

Cleveland at Memphis, 9:05 ET
Cleveland: 6-16 ATS after a non-conference game
Memphis: 13-1 ATS after scoring 100 points or more 2 straight games

Minnesota at Sacramento, 10:05 ET
Minnesota: 12-3 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent
Sacramento: 17-36 ATS in home games on Saturday

Denver at Portland, 10:05 ET
Denver: 6-16 ATS after a non-conference game
Portland: 20-15 ATS on Saturday games

New Orleans at LA Clippers, 10:35 ET
New Orleans: 11-2 ATS after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games
LA Clippers: 15-19 ATS in March games
 

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Saturday, March 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Orlando - 7:30 PM ET Orlando +14 500 *****
Miami - Over 200 500

Washington - 7:30 PM ET Washington -11.5 500
Philadelphia - Over 213.5 500

Detroit - 8:00 PM ET Detroit +11 500 *****
Houston - Under 215 500

Indiana - 8:00 PM ET Boston +7.5 500
Boston - Under 190.5 500

Brooklyn - 8:30 PM ET Brooklyn -6.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Milwaukee - Under 199 500

Cleveland - 9:00 PM ET Cleveland +9 500
Memphis - Under 184.5 500

Denver - 10:00 PM ET Denver +11.5 500 *****
Portland - Over 214 500

Minnesota - 10:00 PM ET Minnesota -4 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Sacramento - Over 215.5 500

New Orleans - 10:30 PM ET L.A. Clippers -12 500 DOUBLE PLAY
L.A. Clippers - Under 210 500
 

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Sunday, March 2


Hot teams
-- Chicago won/covered eight of last nine games.
-- Warriors won five of their last six games. Toronto won six of eight.
-- Pacers won last four games, are 1-5-1 vs spread in last seven.
-- Charlotte won four of its last five games.
-- San Antonio won five of its last six games. Mavericks won four of their last five.

Cold Teams
-- Knicks lost five in row, eight of last nine games.
-- Jazz lost five of their last six road games.
-- 76ers lost their last 13 games (3-10 vs spread). Orlando lost six of its last eight games.
-- Oklahoma City lost three of its last four games.
-- Hawks lost 10 of last 11 games (1-7-1 vs spread last nine). Phoenix lost three of its last four games.

Series records
-- Bulls won eight of last ten games with New York,
-- Warriors won eight of last nine games with Toronto.
-- Pacers won three of last four games against Utah.
-- 76ers lost seven of last nine games with Orlando.
-- Thunder won its last six games with Charlotte.
-- Spurs won their last seven games against Dallas.
-- Suns won seven of last ten games with Atlanta.

Totals
-- Seven of last nine New York games went over total.
-- Five of last six Golden State games stayed under.
-- Last seven Utah road games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Philly-Orlando games stayed under.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Charlotte games.
-- Six of last eight San Antonio games went over total.
-- Last six Atlanta games went over the total.
 

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------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1:00 PM
NEW YORK vs. CHICAGO
New York is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
New York is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Chicago's last 16 games

4:00 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. TORONTO
Golden State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games
Toronto is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing at home against Golden State

6:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. ORLANDO
Philadelphia is 4-17 SU in its last 21 games when playing Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Orlando
Orlando is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Orlando's last 8 games at home

6:00 PM
UTAH vs. INDIANA
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Utah's last 10 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Utah is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Indiana is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Utah
Indiana is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Utah

7:00 PM
DALLAS vs. SAN ANTONIO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
San Antonio is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home

7:00 PM
CHARLOTTE vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
Charlotte is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Charlotte's last 14 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Oklahoma City's last 14 games when playing Charlotte
Oklahoma City is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

8:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. PHOENIX
Atlanta is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Phoenix's last 10 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Phoenix is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
 

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NEW YORK (21 - 38) at CHICAGO (32 - 26) - 3/2/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 5-5 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 8-2 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GOLDEN STATE (36 - 23) at TORONTO (32 - 26) - 3/2/2014, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 34-23 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games this season.
TORONTO is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 146-184 ATS (-56.4 Units) in home games second half of the season since 1996.
TORONTO is 109-146 ATS (-51.6 Units) in March games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 3-1 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 3-1 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (15 - 44) at ORLANDO (18 - 43) - 3/2/2014, 6:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 9-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 7-3 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH (21 - 37) at INDIANA (45 - 13) - 3/2/2014, 6:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 47-78 ATS (-38.8 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 185 and 189.5 points since 1996.
INDIANA is 33-24 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all games this season.
INDIANA is 64-44 ATS (+15.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 140-95 ATS (+35.5 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 2-2 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 3-1 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (36 - 24) at SAN ANTONIO (42 - 16) - 3/2/2014, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 131-105 ATS (+15.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 656-564 ATS (+35.6 Units) as a favorite since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 421-356 ATS (+29.4 Units) in home games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 55-37 ATS (+14.3 Units) second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 150-115 ATS (+23.5 Units) in March games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 281-223 ATS (+35.7 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 167-129 ATS (+25.1 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 142-107 ATS (+24.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
DALLAS is 80-61 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 301-237 ATS (+40.3 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
DALLAS is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games this season.
DALLAS is 210-167 ATS (+26.3 Units) vs. division opponents since 1996.
DALLAS is 274-221 ATS (+30.9 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
DALLAS is 159-121 ATS (+25.9 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.
DALLAS is 436-370 ATS (+29.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
DALLAS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) after allowing 85 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 8-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 8-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHARLOTTE (27 - 31) at OKLAHOMA CITY (44 - 15) - 3/2/2014, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHARLOTTE is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in road games second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 17-34 ATS (-20.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 25-47 ATS (-26.7 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 42-57 ATS (-20.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 83-67 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 72-58 ATS (+8.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 46-29 ATS (+14.1 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 32-23 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
CHARLOTTE is 26-17 ATS (+7.3 Units) as an underdog this season.
CHARLOTTE is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-0 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (26 - 31) at PHOENIX (34 - 24) - 3/2/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 153-192 ATS (-58.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
PHOENIX is 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) in all games this season.
PHOENIX is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
PHOENIX is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 2-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 2-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 

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Magic favored by double-digits for first time this season

The Orlando Magic are opening as huge favorites against the 76ers Sunday. Orlando, who has only been favored against the lowly 76ers and Bucks since the New Year, are 3-0 against the spread when facing the Philadelphia this season.

In the previous three match-ups between the Magic and 76ers this season, Orlando has been 4-point favorites at the most.

The Magic will be double-digit favorites (-10.5) for their first, and possibly only time this season, against the 76ers Sunday.


------------------------------------------------------------------------



Fave trending as ATS winner in Warriors-Raptors meetings

When the Toronto Raptors host the Golden State Warriors Sunday, they'll look to break a trend that has seen the favorite cover the spread in the previous five meetings.

The Warriors have opened as the 2-point road favorite for this Sunday afternoon matchup. Add to that the fact that the Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and the Raptors face a tough challenge at home.


----------------------------------------------------------------------



Suns scoring big against large O/U totals

The Phoenix Suns have been amazing against large O/U totals so far this season. Eight times this season the Suns have had an O/U of 213 or more and they have gone Over six of those times.

The Suns will welcome the Atlanta Hawks with an opening line of 214 Sunday.
 

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MARCH RECORD

............................. 2 - 0 - 1 *****

............................. 2 - 0 DOUBLE PLAYS

............................. 1 - 0 TRIPLE PLAYS


Sunday, March 2

Game Score Status Pick Amount

New York - 1:00 PM ET Chicago -6.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Chicago - Under 186 500

Golden State - 4:00 PM ET Golden State -2.5 500 *****
Toronto - Under 202 500

Utah - 6:00 PM ET Utah +12 500
Indiana - Under 189.5 500

Philadelphia - 6:00 PM ET Orlando -11 500
Orlando - Over 213.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Charlotte - 7:00 PM ET Charlotte +9.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Oklahoma City - Under 204.5 500

Dallas - 7:00 PM ET Dallas +5.5 500
San Antonio - Over 211 500

Atlanta - 8:00 PM ET Phoenix -8 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Phoenix - Over 217 500 DOUBLE PLAY
 

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Short Sheet

Sunday, March 2


New York at Chicago, 1:00 ET
New York: 4-12 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more
Chicago: 9-4 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games

Golden State at Toronto, 4:05 ET
Golden State: 13-4 ATS against Atlantic division opponents
Toronto: 9-19 ATS in home games after covering 2 of their last 3 ATS

Philadelphia at Orlando, 6:05 ET
Philadelphia: 2-8 ATS after a combined score of 225 points or more
Orlando: 11-8 ATS as a home underdog

Utah at Indiana, 6:05 ET
Utah: 9-21 ATS after 1 or more consecutive unders
Indiana: 25-12 ATS after 2 or more consecutive overs

Dallas at San Antonio, 7:05 ET
Dallas: 22-10 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less
San Antonio: 7-18 ATS after allowing 85 points or less

Charlotte at Oklahoma City, 7:05 ET
Charlotte: 25-47 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent
Oklahoma City: 24-13 ATS after a combined score of 215 points or more

Atlanta at Phoenix, 8:05 ET
Atlanta: 12-24 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days
Phoenix: 14-6 ATS after a combined score of 215 points or more
 

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Dunkel


Golden State at Toronto
The Warriors head to Toronto today where they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games versus the Raptors. Golden State is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Warriors favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-2). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, MARCH 2

Game 801-802: New York at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)

Dunkel Ratings: New York 111.039; Chicago 128.901
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 18; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 7; 185
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-7); Over

Game 803-804: Golden State at Toronto (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 122.947; Toronto 118.655
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 4 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 2; 202
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-2); Under

Game 805-806: Philadelphia at Orlando (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 99.702; Orlando 116.947
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 17; 214
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 10; 213
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-10); Over

Game 807-808: Utah at Indiana (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 113.545; Indiana 127.318
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 14; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 12 1/2; 189 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-12 1/2); Under

Game 809-810: Dallas at San Antonio (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 120.350; San Antonio 122.903
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 2 1/2; 219
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 5 1/2; 212 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+5 1/2); Over

Game 811-812: Charlotte at Oklahoma City (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 115.662; Oklahoma City 126.849
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 11; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 9; 203 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-9); Under

Game 813-814: Atlanta at Phoenix (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 111.871; Phoenix 125.897
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 14; 221
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 8 1/2; 215 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-8 1/2); Over
 

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Hoop Trends - Monday

March 3, 2014


ATS TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Grizzlies are 11-0 ATS (6.86 ppg) since Mar 22, 2010 on the road if not a 13+ point favorite, with at most one day of rest after a double digit win in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Heat are 11-0 OU (11.32 ppg) since Nov 09, 2013 at home after a game at home in which they shot at least 50% from the field.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Heat are 0-10 ATS (-7.75 ppg) since Dec 20, 2010 at home after Chris Bosh shot better than 50% from the arc in a win.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Pelicans are 0-12 OU (-13.83 ppg) since Mar 16, 2009 with at least one day of rest after a double digit loss on the road in which they had more turnovers than assists.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- The Lakers are 0-9 ATS (-11.94 ppg) since Nov 09, 2010 after a win at home when their DPS was at least plus 15 points in their previous game.

-- The Wizards are 0-6 ATS (-8.75 ppg) since Mar 23, 2013 after Trevor Ariza was the Wizards’ high scorer on the road.
 

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Monday's Tips

March 2, 2014


Grizzlies at Wizards – 7:05 PM EST

Memphis: 33-25 SU, 26-30-2 ATS
Washington: 31-28 SU, 33-25-1 ATS

The Wizards are one of the hottest teams in the Eastern Conference right now, riding a six-game winning streak. Washington returns home following a pair of road victories at Toronto and Philadelphia, capped off by a 122-103 rout of the slumping 76ers as 11-point favorites. Since suffering a four-game ATS skid at home in January, the Wizards own a stellar 12-5-1 ATS record the last 18 contests, while Washington is 3-1 ATS the last four opportunities as an underdog at the Verizon Center.

The Grizzlies were a strong ‘under’ play when Marc Gasol returned to the lineup in January, but Memphis is currently in the midst of a six-game ‘over’ run. Memphis has alternated wins and losses in its last five contests, coming off Saturday’s comeback victory over Cleveland, outscoring the Cavs, 56-31 in the second half of a 110-96 triumph. The last time the Grizzlies and Wizards met up at FedEx Forum last month, Memphis held on for a 92-89 win, but Washington cashed as 4 ½-point underdogs.

Bulls at Nets – 7:35 PM EST

Chicago: 33-26 SU, 31-28 ATS
Brooklyn: 28-29 SU, 29-28 ATS

The Bulls are building up their seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs by the day, as Chicago routed a lifeless New York squad on Sunday, 109-90 as 6 ½-point favorites. Tom Thibodeau’s club are rolling by winning nine of its past 10 games, including a 4-1 SU/ATS record away from the United Center in this stretch. Chicago has had its way with Brooklyn this season, dominating the Nets twice, including a 95-78 triumph at Barclays Center on Christmas afternoon.

The Nets return to the Empire State following a 4-2 SU/ATS road trip since the All-Star break, as Brooklyn took care of Milwaukee as six-point favorites on Saturday, 107-98. Jason Kidd’s squad allowed 99 points or less in four of those six games, as Brooklyn looks to continue its winning ways at the Barclays Center. The Nets are riding a four-game hot streak at home, while covering three times in recent wins over the Pelicans, Bobcats, and Spurs.

Bobcats at Heat – 7:35 PM EST

Charlotte: 27-31 SU, 32-23-3 ATS
Miami: 42-14 SU, 26-28-23 ATS

The Heat goes for the four-game season sweep of the Bobcats on Monday, as Miami looks to extend its winning streak to eight games. In the previous meeting between these Southeast Division foes, the Heat needed overtime to hold off the Bobcats, 104-96 to pick up a front-door cover as 6 ½-point road favorites in mid-January. Miami has completely dominated Charlotte over the years, winning 15 consecutive times over the Bobcats, as the Bobcats last won at American Airlines Arena in January 2010.

The Bobcats may not be a threat in the Eastern Conference, but Charlotte is currently the seventh-seed in the playoff race. Charlotte’s four-game winning streak went up in flames in Friday’s 92-82 defeat at San Antonio as 8 ½-point underdogs, as Steve Clifford’s club trailed by two with 90 seconds left in regulation before falling apart late. The Bobcats have performed well in the role of a road underdog against teams off consecutive wins, posting a 7-2 ATS record in this situation, including outright victories at Golden State, Denver, and Toronto. Charlotte has responded off a straight-up loss since mid-January, going 7-1 ATS the last eight games off a defeat.

Wolves at Nuggets – 9:05 PM EST

Minnesota: 29-29 SU, 31-27 ATS
Denver: 25-33 SU, 24-34 ATS

Minnesota has slowly come back to life on its current five-game road trip, winning three of the first four contests to pull back to the .500 mark. The Wolves rallied past the Kings on Saturday night as 4 ½-point favorites, 108-97, while also getting back two of their top players, Kevin Martin (26 points) and Nikola Pekovic (20 points) back from injuries. Rick Adelman’s club has drilled the ‘under’ in three straight games, all with closing totals of 211 ½ or higher. Minnesota finally figured out Denver following two early-season losses to the Nuggets, as the Wolves ripped up Denver at the Target Center prior to the All-Star break, 117-90 as 6 ½-point favorites.

The Nuggets have spiraled out control with five consecutive defeats, but Brian Shaw’s team managed a cover as 12-point underdogs at Portland in a 102-96 setback on Saturday. Denver is 0-4 SU/ATS at the Pepsi Center since the All-Star break, while breaking the 100-point mark just twice in the last nine games. In the last eight contests at the Pepsi Center, the Nuggets have hit the ‘over’ just twice, as one of those ‘overs’ needed overtime in a 112-107 loss to Phoenix in the first game after the break.
 

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Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

-- If you like baseball, March is your month to watch MLB Network- they have 2-3 games on most every day, some on tape delay.

-- St Louis Cardinals have already sold 2.6M tickets for this season.

-- Cincinnati Reds aren't doing so well selling season tickets, so the owner did what rich people do- he blamed someone else (in this case, the media).

-- Arizona State PG Jahii Carson is heading to the NBA after this season, even though he hasn't had that good a year. Curious decision.

-- Towson State is the #2 seed in CAA tourney; two years ago, they were 1-31, albeit in a much tougher CAA. Pat Skerry has done a terrific job.

-- Yup, the Olympics sure promote world peace. Took Russians less than a week to start trouble over there. What a farce. How did Sarajevo make out after it hosted the '84 Olympics? Not very well.

*****

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend.......

13) They had an outdoor NHL game at Soldier Field Saturday night and it snowed, which is good; they tried to have one in Vancouver Sunday but it rained, which is bad. Vancouver has a retractable dome, so they closed it and played the outdoor game indoors, in front of 50,000 fans who paid to watch a game played outdoors, in the elememts. Oh well......

12) Eldrick Woods withdrew from the Honda Classic after the 13th hole Sunday, citing back pain as a reason. It is the 7th time Woods has withdrawn from a tournament, the fourth time in last five years.

11) Interesting baseball stat: Giants' 3B Pablo Sandoval swung at 45.5% of the pitches he saw last year that were out of the strike zone. Amazing that he swung at almost half the bad pitches he saw.

10) Giancarlo Stanton saw a strike on only 38.2% of pitches he saw LY, due to Miami being so terrible they don't have any other solid hitters in their lineup- he swung at 30.5% of those bad pitches, down from 37.1% he swung at the year before. Good thing walks count in my fantasy league.

Those stats are from Fangraphs.com, by the way.

9) Ohio State started this season 15-0, averaging 75.7 ppg; since then, they are 7-8, averaging 64.4 ppg. They look like a tired team.

8) Steve Alford is in his 23rd year as a coach already? Yikes.

7) Tulane's 16-14/8-7 mark doesn't look like much, but Ed Conroy had done a good job with the Green Wave, who were decimated by transfers after the school failed to get into the Big East.

Conroy also won at Citadel, going 36-29 his last two years there, which is almost impossible to do; the next SEC job that opens could be his.

6) Joakim Noah leads the Bulls in assists; he could be the first center to lead his team in assists since David Robinson 20 years ago.

5) Bruins beat the Rangers 6-3 in New York last night; interesting that the two head coaches, Claude Julien and Alain Vigneault, were once teammates in the early 80's with the minor league Salt Lake Golden Eagles. Good coaches come from all different kinds of backgrounds, not just ex-star players.

4) Oregon State basketball coach Craig Robinson is 38-68 in conference tilts in his six years with the Beavers; his predecessor, Jay John, got shown the door after going 28-80 in league games over six years.

Robinson is 7-9 in Pac-12 this year but has a veteran team that should be better; fact of the matter is, he is the President's brother-in-law and won't be fired, but you could make the case that he deserves to be.

3) Jake Peavy got scratched from his Monday start after he cut a finger on his left hand in an accident with a fishing knife. Andrew Cashner did the same thing couple years ago, only the injury turned out to be worse. Luckily for Peavy, he hurt his non-pitching hand.

2) NBA has to stop showing the Knicks on national TV; they're not a good adveertisement for their product.

\1) March Madness starts tonight, with two games in the Patriot League tournament. That makes two full weeks of conference tournament games.
 

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Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, March 3


Hot teams
-- Washington won its last six games (4-1-1 vs spread). Grizzlies won six of their last eight games.
-- Brooklyn won last four home games. Bulls won/covered nine of their last ten games overall.
-- Miami won its last seven games (5-0-2 vs spread).
-- Minnesota won five of its last six games.
-- Portland won last five games, covered three of last four.

Cold Teams
-- Detroit lost its last four games, all by 8+ points. Knicks lost their last six games (1-5 vs spread).
-- Bobcats won/covered one of last four road games.
-- Milwaukee lost 23 of last 27 games, covered five of last seven. Jazz lost five of last seven games, covered three of last four.
-- Nuggets lost ten of their last eleven games (2-9 vs spread).
-- Lakers lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Kings lost last three games, allowing 121 ppg. New Orleans lost its last seven games (1-5-1 vs spread).

Series records
-- Grizzlies won eight of last ten games with Washington.
-- Bulls won eight of last eleven games with Brooklyn.
-- Knicks won 12 of last 14 games against Detroit.
-- Bobcats lost 14 in row vs Miami (1-4 last five vs spread).
-- Jazz won five of last six games with Milwaukee.
-- Nuggets won three of last four games with Minnesota.
-- Lakers won five of last seven games with Portland.
-- Pelicans lost four of last five visits to Sacramento.

Totals
-- Last six Memphis games went over the total.
-- Under is 11-6 in Chicago's last 17 games.
-- Eight of last ten New York games went over.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Charlotte games.
-- Last eight Utah road games stayed under; six of Milwaukee's last seven games went over.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Minnesota games.
-- Six of last seven Laker games went over the total; Portland's last five games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Pelican games stayed under total.
 

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