Cnotes college football 2021-2022 news/trends/best bets thru ncaa championship !

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TUESDAY, DECEMBER 21
Game Time(ET) Pick Units


KENT at WYO 03:30 PM
KENT +3.5
O 60.5

+500 +500

UTSA at SDSU 07:30 PM
UTSA +3.0
U 49.0

+500 +500
 

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DECEMBER'S OPINIONS AND BEST BETS THRU THE PLAYOFFS AND BOWL GAMES !

Date W-L-T % Units

12/21/2021............1-3-0...........25.00%...........-11.50
12/18/2021............6-6-0...........50.00%.............-3.00
12/17/2021............0-2-0.............0.00%............-11.00
12/11/2021............1-1-0...........50.00%..............-0.50
12/04/2021..........11-7-0............61.11%...........+16.50
12/03/2021............1-3-0............25.00%............-11.50


TOTALS:.............20-22-0............47.61%............- 21.00


****************************


BEST BETS:

12/21/2021............1-3-0............25.00%...........-11.50
12/18/2021............6-2-0............75.00%..........+19.00
12/17/2021............0-2-0.............0.00%............-11.00
12/11/2021............1-1-0...........50.00%..............-0.50
12/04/2021............6-5-0............54.54%...........+.2.50
12/03/2021............1-3-0............25.00%............-11.50


TOTALS:..............15-16-0............48.38%............- 13.00


UPDATED 12/21/2021
 

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  • Army has covered the spread in four of its last six games when playing away from West Point.
    Army has failed to cover the spread in five of its last seven games when playing as the favorite.
    Missouri has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 12 games.
 

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WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 22
Game Time(ET) Pick Units


MIZZ at ARMY 08:00 PM
ARMY -6.5
O 54.0

+500 +500
 

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DECEMBER'S OPINIONS AND BEST BETS THRU THE PLAYOFFS AND BOWL GAMES !

Date W-L-T % Units

12/22/2021............0-2-0...........00.00%...........-11.00
12/21/2021............1-3-0...........25.00%...........-11.50
12/18/2021............6-6-0...........50.00%.............-3.00
12/17/2021............0-2-0.............0.00%............-11.00
12/11/2021............1-1-0...........50.00%..............-0.50
12/04/2021..........11-7-0............61.11%...........+16.50
12/03/2021............1-3-0............25.00%............-11.50


TOTALS:.............20-24-0............45.45%............- 32.00


****************************


BEST BETS:

12/22/2021............0-2-0...........00.00%............-11.00
12/21/2021............1-3-0............25.00%...........-11.50
12/18/2021............6-2-0............75.00%..........+19.00
12/17/2021............0-2-0.............0.00%............-11.00
12/11/2021............1-1-0...........50.00%..............-0.50
12/04/2021............6-5-0............54.54%...........+.2.50
12/03/2021............1-3-0............25.00%............-11.50


TOTALS:..............15-18-0............45.45%............- 24.00


UPDATED 12/22/2021
 

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Dec. 24 thru Dec. 29

NCAAF

Bowl Season


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Memphis @ Hawaii
Memphis
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Memphis's last 16 games
Memphis is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
Hawaii
Hawaii is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Hawaii's last 9 games at home

Georgia State @ Ball State
Georgia State
Georgia State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Georgia State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Ball State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Ball State's last 5 games
Ball State is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games

Western Michigan @ Nevada
Western Michigan
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Western Michigan's last 7 games
Western Michigan is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Nevada
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Nevada's last 11 games
Nevada is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games

Boston College @ East Carolina
Boston College
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Boston College's last 8 games
Boston College is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
East Carolina
East Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
East Carolina is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games

Houston @ Auburn
Houston
Houston is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Houston's last 10 games
Auburn
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Auburn's last 5 games
Auburn is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

Air Force @ Louisville
Air Force
Air Force is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Air Force is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
Louisville
No trends to report

Mississippi State @ Texas Tech
Mississippi State
Mississippi State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Mississippi State's last 5 games
Texas Tech
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas Tech's last 6 games
Texas Tech is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

California-Los Angeles @ North Carolina State
California-Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 4 of California-Los Angeles's last 5 games
California-Los Angeles is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
North Carolina State
North Carolina State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of North Carolina State's last 10 games

West Virginia @ Minnesota
West Virginia
West Virginia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Minnesota
Minnesota is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Minnesota is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

Southern Methodist @ Virginia
Southern Methodist
Southern Methodist is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Southern Methodist's last 6 games
Virginia
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Virginia's last 13 games
Virginia is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games

Maryland @ Virginia Tech
Maryland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Maryland's last 5 games
Maryland is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Maryland
Virginia Tech is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Maryland

Clemson @ Iowa State
Clemson
Clemson is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Clemson is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Iowa State
Iowa State is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Iowa State's last 9 games

Oregon @ Oklahoma
Oregon
Oregon is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
Oregon is 6-12 ATS in its last 18 games
Oklahoma
Oklahoma is 18-2 SU in its last 20 games


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 

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Miami-Ohio has failed to cover the spread in five of its last seven games when playing as the favorite.
North Texas has covered the spread in five of its last six games away from home.
North Texas has covered the spread in six straight games.


Florida has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 12 games.
Florida has failed to cover the spread in five straight games away from Gainesville.
Florida has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last 10 games when playing as the favorite.
UCF has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games away from Orlando.




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THURSDAY, DECEMBER 23
Game Time(ET) Pick Units


UNT at M-OH 03:30 PM
UNT +2.5
O 56.5
+500 +500

UCF at FLA 07:00 PM
UCF +6.5
U 55.5
+500 +500
 

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DECEMBER'S OPINIONS AND BEST BETS THRU THE PLAYOFFS AND BOWL GAMES !

Date W-L-T % Units

12/23/2021............2-2-0...........50.00%.............-1.00
12/22/2021............0-2-0...........00.00%...........-11.00
12/21/2021............1-3-0...........25.00%...........-11.50
12/18/2021............6-6-0...........50.00%.............-3.00
12/17/2021............0-2-0.............0.00%............-11.00
12/11/2021............1-1-0...........50.00%..............-0.50
12/04/2021..........11-7-0............61.11%...........+16.50
12/03/2021............1-3-0............25.00%............-11.50


TOTALS:.............22-26-0............45.83%............- 33.00


****************************


BEST BETS:

12/23/2021............1-1-0...........50.00%.............-0.50
12/22/2021............0-2-0...........00.00%............-11.00
12/21/2021............1-3-0............25.00%...........-11.50
12/18/2021............6-2-0............75.00%..........+19.00
12/17/2021............0-2-0.............0.00%............-11.00
12/11/2021............1-1-0...........50.00%..............-0.50
12/04/2021............6-5-0............54.54%...........+.2.50
12/03/2021............1-3-0............25.00%............-11.50


TOTALS:..............16-19-0............45.71%............- 24.50


UPDATED 12/23/2021
 

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Georgia State has covered the spread in five of its last six games away from Atlanta.
Ball State has gone UNDER the point total in nine of its last 12 games.
Ball State has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last 12 games.




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Dec. 30 thru Dec. 31

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-up

Bowl Season

December 30

Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Charlotte)
North Carolina (6-6) vs South Carolina (6-6)

— UNC is 6-1 if it scores 34+ points, 0-5 otherwise.
— Tar Heels haven’t lost consecutive games this season.
— North Carolina has three wins where they gave up 39+ points.
— UNC ran ball for 223+ yards in five of last six I-A games.
— Carolina is 5-11 ATS in last 16 games with single digit spread.
— Tar Heels are 12-15 ATS last 27 games as a favorite.
— Tar Heels have 8 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Tech has 111 returning starts on the offensive line.
— UNC has a soph QB with 38 career starts.
— Mack Brown is 15-9 SU in bowl games.
— UNC lost four of last five bowls (were favored in 3 of 5)
— Over is 7-4 in last 11 North Carolina games.

— South Carolina is 0-5 if they allow 30+ points, 5-1 if they don’t.
— Gamecocks allowed 20 or less points in its six wins.
— Gamecocks allowed 230+ RY in last five losses.
— South Carolina has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Gamecocks have 84 returning starts on offensive line.
— South Carolina’s QB is a 2nd-year freshman (143 passes TY)
— One of South Carolina’s backup QB’s already transferred.
— Gamecocks are 7-15 ATS last 22 games as underdogs.
— South Carolina won three of last five bowls.
— This is their first bowl since 2018.
— Under is 6-5 in South Carolina games this season.

— Tar Heels (+11) nipped South Carolina 24-20 in ’19 season opener.
— Last four years, SEC teams are 22-12 ATS vs ACC squads.
— Last ten years, favorites are 7-2-1 ATS in this bowl.

Music City Bowl (@ Nashville)
Purdue (8-4) vs Tennessee (7-5)

— Purdue won four of its last five games SU.
— Purdue is 7-1 when it scores more than 13 points.
— Purdue threw for 390+ yards three of last four games.
— Boilers’ star WR Bell opted out of this game.
— Purdue is 14-6 ATS last 20 games as an underdog.
— Boilers have 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Purdue has 96 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Junior QB O’Connell is completing 73.5% of his passes.
— Purdue is 3-2 in last five bowls, despite allowing 47.2 ppg.
— Average total in those five bowls: 78.0.
— Purdue’s last bowl was ’18 Music City Bowl (L63-14 to Auburn)
— Over is 4-2 in last six Purdue games.

— Tennessee is 7-0 when it scores 38+ points, 0-5 when it doesn’t.
— Tennessee won three of last four games, scoring 45+ in the wins.
— Vols ran football for 350-285 yards in last two games.
— Vols are 7-4 ATS last eleven games as a favorite.
— Tennessee has 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Vols have 70 returning starts on offensive line.
— Vols have QB with 26 starts who transferred from Va Tech.
— Tennessee won its last four bowls, scoring 37.8 ppg.
— All four of those games were against Big 14 teams.
— Vols won Music City Bowl in ’16, lost here in OT in ’10.
— Seven of their last nine games went over the total.

— Favorites are 5-3 ATS last eight Music City Bowls.
— SEC teams are 5-3 ATS last eight Music City Bowls.
— Last 10 years, SEC teams are 28-16 SU vs Big 14 teams.
— SEC favorites are 18-16-1 last 35 games vs the Big 14.

Peach Bowl (@ Atlanta)
Pitt (11-2) vs Michigan State (10-2)

— Star QB Pickett (4,319 yards, 42 TD’s) opted out of this.
— Backup QB Patti threw 14 passes this year.
— USC transfer Slovis is transferring to Pitt; this is Patti’s audition for his next school.
— Panthers won its last six games, scoring 41.6 ppg.
— Pitt’s two losses were by a combined seven points.
— Pitt is 6-1 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Panthers have 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Pitt has 74 returning starts on offensive line.
— This is the quarterback’s first (and last?) start.
— Pitt four of its last five bowls, with two losses by a point.
— Average total in Pitt’s last five bowls: 57.4.
— Three of last four Pittsburgh games stayed under the total.

— Michigan State split its last four games, after 8-0 start.
— MSU is 10-2 despite being favored in only seven games.
— Spartans gave up 36 ppg in last four games.
— MSU gave up 451+ yards in four of last five games.
— Spartans are 6-2 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— State is 9-14 ATS last 23 games as favorite (4-3 with Tucker)
— Spartans have 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— MSU has 120 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Michigan State has senior QB who started 26 games for Temple.
— MSU is 3-2 in its last five bowls (scored 0-6 in losses)
— This is Tucker’s first bowl game as a head coach.
— Over is 4-1 in Michigan State’s last five games.

— Underdogs are 6-3 ATS last nine Peach Bowls.
— Average total in last four Peach Bowls: 63.6.
— Big 14 teams are 16-7 SU last 23 games vs ACC teams.
— Big 14 teams are 14-9 ATS last 23 games vs ACC teams.

Las Vegas Bowl
Wisconsin (8-4) vs Arizona State (8-4)

— Wisconsin won seven of its last eight games.
— Wisconsin is 8-0 when it scores 20+ points, 0-4 when it doesn’t.
— Wisconsin is 19-6 ATS in last 25 games as a road favorite.
— Last six games, Badgers are plus-12 in turnovers.
— Badgers are 8-10 ATS last 18 games as a favorite.
— Wisconsin is 4-2 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Badgers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Wisconsin has 59 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Wisconsin has a freshman QB, with 18 starts.
— Badgers won four of last five bowl games.
— Over is 4-2 in last six Wisconsin games.

— Arizona State won three of its last four games.
— ASU lost three of five games away from home.
— ASU scored 28+ in its wins, 21 or less in its losses.
— Sun Devils ran for 228+ yards three of last four games.
— ASU played only one game decided by less than 10 points.
— Sun Devils have 9 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
— ASU has 47 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Sun Devils have a soph QB with 29 career starts.
— Under Edwards, ASU is 10-5 ATS as underdogs.
— Sun Devils are 2-3 SU in last five bowl games.
— ASU gave up 31+ points in four of those five games.
— Over is 5-3-1 in last nine ASU games.

— Favorites are 6-3 ATS in last nine Las Vegas Bowls.
— ASU lost this bowl 31-20 to Fresno State three years ago.
— Big 14 teams are 21-16 SU last 37 games vs Pac-12 squads.
— Big 14 favorites are 8-10 ATS last 18 games vs Pac-12 squads.
 

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December 31

Gator Bowl
Rutgers (5-7) vs Wake Forest (10-3)

— Rutgers got OK to replace Texas A&M here December 23.
— Rutgers lost seven of last nine games, after a 3-0 start.
— Scarlet Knights gave up 14 or less points in all five wins.
— Rutgers is 0-7 allowing more than 14 points.
— Scarlet Knights are 10-15 ATS last 25 games as an underdog.
— Knights have 11 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Rutgers has 69 returning starts on offensive line.
— Rutgers has junior QB with 27 career starts.
— This is Rutgers’ first bowl since 2014.
— Scarlet Knights are 2-3 in last five bowls.
— Under is 7-3 in last ten Rutgers games.

— Wake is 2-3 in its last five games, after an 8-0 start.
— Deacons allowed 48-58-45 points in its three losses.
— Deacons scored 35+ points in all ten of their wins.
— Wake allowed 482+ TY in seven of last ten games.
— Deacons are 7-4 ATS last 11 games as a favorite.
— Wake has 11 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Deacons have 102 returning starts on offensive line.
— Wake has a sophomore QB with 31 career starts.
— Deacons are 6-4 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Wake is 3-2 in last five bowls; average total, 71.2.
— Six of last nine Wake games went over the total.

— Underdogs are 5-4 ATS in last nine Gator Bowls.
— Last ten years, Big 14 teams are 2-4 ATS in Gator Bowl.
— Big 14 teams are 16-7 SU last 23 games vs ACC teams.
— Big 14 teams are 14-9 ATS last 23 games vs ACC teams.

Sun Bowl (@ El Paso, TX)
Washington State (7-5) vs Miami (7-5)

— Wazzu won six of its last eight games.
— Coogs scored 31+ points in five of last seven games.
— Wazzu allowed 200+ YR in four of their five losses.
— Coogs are 5-1 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Coogs have 8 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Wazzu has 68 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Coogs have a soph QB with 19 career starts.
— Wazzu is 11-7 ATS in its last 18 road games.
— Coogs lost three of their last four bowls SU.
— Wazzu is 0-4 ATS in last four bowls.
— Over is 5-1 in Coogs’ last six games.

— Miami won five of last six games, but still changed coaches.
— Eight of their 12 games were decided by 4 or less points.
— Miami won three games where they allowed 30+ points.
— Last six games, Miami threw for 316+ yards.
— Miami covered five of its last seven games.
— Hurricanes’ last three losses were by total of 8 points.
— Miami has 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Miami has 190 returning starts on offensive line.
— Hurricanes are playing a freshman QB with 25 TD’s, 6 INT’s.
— Miami lost its last four bowl games (0-4 ATS)
— Over is 4-2-1 in last seven Miami games.

— Favorites are 4-2-1 ATS in last seven Sun Bowls.
— Pac-12 teams are 6-1 SU/4-2-1 ATS in last seven Sun Bowls.
— ACC teams are 9-4-1 ATS last 14 games vs Pac-12 squads.

Arizona Bowl
Central Michigan (8-4) vs Boise State (7-5)

— CMU won four of its last five games.
— Chippewas scored 38-42-54 points in last three games.
— Chippewas are 6-1 if they score 26+ points, 0-3 otherwise.
— CMU gave up 520-445-456 total yards last three games.
— Under McElwain, CMU is 10-3 ATS as an underdog.
— Chippewas are 5-3 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Chippewas have 11 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— CMU has 82 returning starts on offensive line.
— CMU’s freshman QB has 12 career starts.
— Chippewas lost last five bowls, giving up 42 ppg.
— In his career, McElwain is 2-2 in bowl games.
— Under is 5-3 in CMU’s last eight games.

— Boise State won four of its last five games.
— This is Broncos’ worst season since 2013.
— Boise is 7-0 allowing 19 or less points, 0-5 allowing 21+ points.
— Boise State is 21-15 ATS last 36 games as a favorite.
— Broncos are 5-4 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Boise State has 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Broncos have 66 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Boise has soph QB who has started 27 games.
— Last 11 years, Boise is 32-17 ATS as a road favorite, 2-0 TY.
— Broncos split their last four bowls.
— This is only their second bowl in last four seasons.
— Under is 7-0 in last seven Boise games.

— Underdogs are 3-2 ATS in the Arizona Bowl.
— Mountain West teams are 4-3 SU in this bowl.
— Last four years, Mountain West teams are 8-6 vs MAC squads.
— MAC underdogs are 5-5-1 ATS last 11 tries vs MW teams.

Cotton Bowl (@ Arlington, TX)
Alabama (12-1) vs Cincinnati (12-0)

— Alabama won its last seven games, three by 28+ points.
— Alabama scored 40.9 ppg in those games.
— Crimson Tide is double digit favorite for 13th time in 14 games.
— Alabama threw for 300+ yards in last eight games.
— Alabama is +10 in turnovers; last eight years, they’re +85.
— Crimson Tide’s only loss was 41-38 at Texas A&M.
— Crimson Tide has 3 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Alabama has 89 returning starts on offensive line.
— Bama’s new QB has started 14 games.
— Alabama won six of its last seven bowl games.
— Under is 8-5 in Alabama games this season

— Bearcats are underdogs for first time this season.
— Under Fickell, Cincinnati is 10-5 ATS as an underdog.
— Last nine games, Cincinnati was double digit favorite.
— Bearcats ran for 200+ yards in three of last four games.
— Last four games, Cincinnati scored 40.8 ppg.
— Last 12 games, Cincy is +15 in turnovers.
— Bearcats have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Cincinnati has 48 returning starts on offensive line.
— Cincinnati has a junior QB with 48 career starts.
— Bearcats lost three of their last five bowl games.
— Cincinnati lost bowl LY, 24-21 to Georgia of SEC.
— Five of last seven Cincinnati games stayed under total.

— Favorites won/covered last six Cotton Bowls.
— Alabama (-10) beat Michigan St. 38-0 in ’15 Cotton Bowl.
— SEC teams are 10-4-1 ATS last 15 games vs AAC squads.

Orange Bowl (@ Miami)
Michigan (12-1) vs Georgia (12-1)

— Michigan won/covered its last five games
— Wolverines scored 47.7 ppg in last three games.
— Michigan’s one loss was 37-33 at Michigan State
— Wolverines gained 552 yards in that game (406 PY)
— Under Harbaugh, Michigan is 5-6 ATS as underdogs (2-0 TY)
— Michigan scored 29+ points in 11 of 13 games.
— Michigan has 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Wolverines have 30 returning starts on offensive line.
— Michigan’s QB has started 14 games.
— Michigan lost its last four bowls, giving up 33.8 ppg.
— Over is 6-3 in Michigan’s last nine games.

— Georgia was #1 in country, lost SEC title game 41-24 to Alabama.
— Georgia gained 449+ yards in last five games.
— Dawgs are 6-2 ATS in last eight games.
— Dawgs held nine of 13 opponents under 250 TY.
— Georgia is 2-4 ATS last six games with single digit spread.
— Dawgs have 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
— Georgia has 38 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Dawgs have former walk-on QB; backup is transfer from USC.
— Georgia is 11-7 ATS in last 18 games as a favorite.
— Dawgs are 4-2 in last six bowls, splitting pair of OT games.
— Under is 6-2 in last eight Georgia games.

— Underdogs are 7-3 ATS in last ten Orange Bowls.
— SEC teams won last three Orange Bowls.
— Last 10 years, SEC teams are 28-16 SU vs Big 14 teams.
— SEC favorites are 18-16-1 last 35 games vs the Big 14.
 

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Jun 22, 2009
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16,445
Tokens
Dec. 30 thru Dec. 31

NCAAF

Bowl Season


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

North Carolina @ South Carolina
North Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of North Carolina's last 6 games
North Carolina is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
South Carolina
South Carolina is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
South Carolina is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games

Tennessee @ Purdue
Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 5 games
Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Purdue
Purdue is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Purdue is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Pittsburgh @ Michigan State
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Michigan State
Michigan State is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Michigan State's last 5 games

Wisconsin @ Arizona State
Wisconsin
Wisconsin is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Wisconsin is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Arizona State
Arizona State is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
Arizona State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

Wake Forest @ Rutgers
Wake Forest
Wake Forest is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Wake Forest's last 9 games
Rutgers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Rutgers's last 7 games
Rutgers is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games

Washington State @ Miami-FL
Washington State
Washington State is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington State's last 6 games
Miami-FL
Miami-FL is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Miami-FL is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games

Central Michigan @ Boise State
Central Michigan
Central Michigan is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Central Michigan is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Boise State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boise State's last 5 games
Boise State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Cincinnati @ Alabama
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games
Alabama
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Alabama is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games

Georgia @ Michigan
Georgia
Georgia is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Georgia's last 9 games
Michigan
Michigan is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Michigan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games


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SATURDAY, DECEMBER 25
Game Time(ET) Pick Units


GSU at BALL 02:30 PM
GSU -5.5
O 51.0

+500 +500
 

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Nevada has covered the spread in five of its last six games away from Reno.
Nevada has covered the spread in four of its last five games when playing as the underdog.
Nevada has covered the spread in 10 of its last 11 games when playing as the underdog.
Nevada has gone OVER the point total in four of its last five Bowl Games.




0jVG2Zj.png
 

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Bowl Tech Trends - Week 3
Bruce Marshall

The third week of the College Football bowl season kicks off on Tuesday, December 28 and concludes on Monday, January 3.

Tuesday, Dec. 28

BIRMINGHAM BOWL

HOUSTON vs. AUBURN (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)


Under Malzahn, Tigers 1-4 SU and vs. line last five bowls.
Auburn also lost last four outright in 2021 (1-3 vs. line in those games).
Harsin 3-2 SU and vs. line in bowls with Boise. Tigers also 4-7 “under” this season.
Holgorsen no covers last seven bowls while at West Virginia.

Tech Edge: Auburn, based on Holgorsen bowl trends.


FIRST RESPONDER BOWL

LOUISVILLE vs. AIR FORCE (ESPN, 3:15 p.m.)


Falcs 4-0-1 vs. line away from home this season (counts Nevada game as push), Troy Calhoun also 6-2 vs. spread his last eight bowl games.
Since bowl win two years ago, Cards just 11-11 vs. line.

Tech Edge: Air Force, based on team trends.


LIBERTY BOWL

TEXAS TECH vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE (ESPN, 6:45 p.m.)


Mike Leach Bowl vs. former employer! Leach has failed to cover last five bowl games (0-4 at WSU, 0-1 at MSU) , though Bulldogs did close 2021 on 5-1 spread uptick.
Red Raiders never managed back-to-back spread covers all season, though were 4-2 vs. line away from Lubbock.

Tech Edge: Slight to MSU, based on recent trends.


HOLIDAY BOWL

NORTH CAROLINA STATE vs. UCLA (FOX, 8:00 p.m.)


Bruins first bowl since 2017. Chip Kelly 8-4 SU and vs. line this season.
Bruins won and covered last three, also “over” 4-1 last five in 2021.
Pack 2-3 vs. line away from Raleigh, also “over” last three.

Tech Edge: UCLA and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


GUARANTEED RATE BOWL

WEST VIRGINIA vs. MINNESOTA (ESPN, 10:15 p.m.)


Interestingly, these sides have never met before!
Neal Brown is 4-0 SU, 3-1 vs. line in bowls at Troy and WVU.
Fleck has won and covered his last two bowls with Gophers, and has covered 7 of last 8 away from Minneapolis.

Tech Edge: Slight to Minnesota, based on team trends.
 

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Jan. 1 thru Jan. 4

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-up

Bowl Season

January 1

Outback Bowl
Arkansas (8-4) @ Penn State (7-5)

— Arkansas won four of its last five games.
— Hogs gave up 37+ points in their four losses.
— Hogs gave up 28 or less points in their wins.
— Arkansas is 3-2-1 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Arkansas has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Razorbacks have 110 returning starts on offensive line.
— Arkansas has a freshman QB with 13 starts.
— Under Pittman, Arkansas is 11-4 ATS as an underdog.
— Razorbacks are playing in first bowl since 2016.
— Arkansas won three of its last four bowls.
— Hogs’ bowl game vs TCU last year was cancelled.
— Over is 4-2 in last six Arkansas games.

— Penn State lost five of last seven games, after 5-0 start.
— Nittany Lions were held under 110 RY six of last seven games.
— PSU is 1-4 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Nittany Lions are 2-3 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Penn State has 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Penn State has 47 returning starts on offensive line.
— Penn State has a junior QB, with 34 starts.
— Nittany Lions won three of their last five bowls.
— PSU lost its last two bowls against SEC teams.
— Average total in Penn State’s last four bowls: 76.8.
— In his career, coach Franklin is 5-4 SU in bowl games.
— Five of last six Penn State games stayed under total.

— Underdogs covered last four Outback Bowls.
— Last nine years, SEC teams are 6-3 vs Big 14 in this game.
— Last 10 years, SEC teams are 28-16 SU vs Big 14 teams.
— SEC favorites are 18-16-1 last 35 games vs the Big 14.

Citrus Bowl (@ Orlando)
Iowa (10-3) vs Kentucky (9-3)

— Iowa won four of their last five games.
— Iowa was outscored 93-17 in its three losses.
— Iowa was held under 300 TY in five of last seven games.
— Iowa is 6-1 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Hawkeyes were minus-5 in turnovers in their losses.
— Iowa is 4-0 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Hawkeyes have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Iowa has 38 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Hawkeyes have a soph QB this year, with 20 starts.
— Hawkeyes won last three bowls, scoring 34.3 ppg.
— Over is 4-0 in last four Iowa games.

— Kentucky scored 46 ppg in its last four games.
— Wildcats are 9-3 despite being minus-13 in turnovers.
— Kentucky gave up 30+ points in all three losses.
— Wildcats are 9-0 when they give up less than 30 points.
— Wildcats are 5-2 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Kentucky has 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
— Wildcats have 62 returning starts on offensive line.
— Kentucky’s QB has 14 career starts; he transferred from Penn State.
— Wildcats are 12-6 ATS last 18 games as a favorite.
— Kentucky won last three bowls, by total of 12 points.
— Over is 4-1 in last five Kentucky games.

— Favorites are 7-3 ATS in last ten Citrus Bowls.
— Last ten years, SEC is 6-2 SU vs Big 14 teams in this bowl.
— Last 10 years, SEC teams are 28-16 SU vs Big 14 teams.
— SEC favorites are 18-16-1 last 35 games vs the Big 14.

Fiesta Bowl (@ Phoenix)
Notre Dame (11-1) vs Oklahoma State (11-2)

— First game as HC for 35-year old Freeman, who was DC.
— Offensive coordinator stayed, so offense should be OK.
— Notre Dame scored 31+ points in their last seven games.
— ND won/covered its last seven games.
— Notre Dame’s only loss was 24-13 at home to unbeaten Cincinnati.
— Irish is 6-2 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Notre Dame has 3 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Notre Dame has 62 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Notre Dame has senior QB with 32 starts.
— Notre Dame lost three of its last five bowls.
— Irish (+6.5) lost 44-28 to Ohio State in 2015 Fiesta Bowl.
— Three of last four Notre Dame games stayed under total.

— Oklahoma State lost Big X title game 21-16 to Baylor.
— OSU won five of its last six games
— OSU is 8-1-1 ATS in its last ten games.
— Cowboys were held to 21-16 points in their losses.
— State is 9-0 if they allow 23 or fewer points.
— OSU is 6-1-1 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Cowboys have 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— OSU has 103 returning starts on offensive line.
— Cowboys’ soph QB has started 30 games.
— Oklahoma State won four of its last five bowls.
— Cowboys were an underdog in three of those five games.
— Coach Gundy is 10-5 SU in bowls.
— Six of last nine OSU games stayed under total.

— Favorites won/covered four of last five Fiesta Bowls.
— Oklahoma State won this bowl in OT ten years ago.

Rose Bowl (@ Pasadena)
Utah (10-3) vs Ohio State (10-1)

— Utah won six in a row, nine of last ten games.
— Utes beat Oregon 38-10 in Pac-12 title game.
— Utes scored 39.7 ppg in their last six games.
— Utes gave up 219-204-260 YR in their three losses.
— Utah is 15-6 ATS in last 21 games as an underdog.
— All ten Utah wins are by 9+ points.
— Utah has 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Utes have 99 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Utah has soph quarterback with 12 starts.
— Utah ran ball for 200+ yards in four of last six games.
— Utes lost their last two bowls, 31-20/38-10.
— Over is 6-2 in last eight Utah games.

— Ohio State won nine of its last ten games (6-3 ATS last nine)
— Seven of those nine wins were by 21+ points.
— Buckeyes threw for 300+ yards in last nine games.
— Ohio State gave up 35-42 points in its two losses.
— Last nine games, Buckeyes are +10 in turnovers.
— Buckeyes have 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
— OSU has 37 returning starts on offensive line.
— Ohio State’s QB has 12 career starts.
— Coach Day is 20-10-1 ATS as a favorite.
— Buckeyes split their last six bowls.
— Ohio State won its last three Rose Bowls.
— Over is 5-3 in Ohio State’s last eight games.

— Underdogs covered four of last five Rose Bowls.
— Pac-12 teams are 6-2 SU in their last eight Rose Bowls.
— Big 14 teams are 21-16 SU last 37 games vs Pac-12 squads.
— Big 14 favorites are 8-10 ATS last 18 games vs Pac-12 squads.

Sugar Bowl (@ New Orleans)
Baylor (11-2) vs Ole Miss (10-2)

— Baylor was 2-7 last year; big turnaround this season.
— Bears won title game, 21-16 over Oklahoma State
— Baylor won last four games, giving up 16 ppg
— Baylor is 4-1 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Bears are +10 in turnovers this season.
— Baylor allowed 200+ rushing yards six of last nine games.
— Baylor is 7-2 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Bears have 7 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Baylor has 95 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Bears have a soph QB this year, with 13 starts.
— Baylor won three of its last four bowls.
— Bears (+4.5) lost this bowl 26-14 to Georgia two years ago.
— Under is 5-1 in last six Baylor games.

— Ole Miss won four in row, seven of last eight games.
— Rebels allowed 200+ rushing yards in six of last nine games.
— Ole Miss gave up 42-31 points in its two losses (Bama/Auburn)
— Rebels’ last five wins were all by 10+ points.
— Ole Miss is 6-2 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Rebels have 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Ole Miss has 64 returning starts on offensive line.
— Rebels’ soph QB has started 27 games.
— Ole Miss won four of its last five bowls.
— In his career, Kiffin is 2-2 SU in bowl games.
— Last seven Rebel games stayed under the total

— Favorites won/covered four of last six Sugar Bowls.
— Last nine years, SEC teams are 3-5 SU in this bowl.
— SEC teams are 21-15 SU in last 36 games vs Big X opponents.
— Last six years, Big X underdogs are 9-6 ATS vs SEC teams.


January 4

Texas Bowl (@ Houston)
LSU (6-6) vs Kansas State (7-5)

— Interim coach for this game; Kelly will be observing.
— LSU won its last two games to become bowl eligible.
— Tigers’ QB transferred to Texas A&M; backup threw 55 passes.
— LSU held last four opponents to 311 or fewer TY.
— Tigers are 6-1 if they score 27+ points, 0-5 if they don’t.
— LSU has 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Tigers have 97 returning starts on the offensive line.
— LSU’s junior QB has made 16 starts.
— Tigers are 13-4-1 ATS last 18 games as underdogs.
— LSU won its last three bowls, scoring 48.3 ppg.
— Under is 4-1 in last five LSU games.

— K-State is 7-1 scoring 24+ points, 0-4 when it doesn’t.
— Wildcats were held under 300 TY in last three games.
— K-State is 6-2 when it gains 300+ TY, 1-3 when it doesn’t.
— Wildcats threw for 65 yards in last game, a 22-17 loss to Texas.
— K-State is 2-4-1 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Wildcats have 10 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— K-State has 53 returning starts on offensive line.
— Wildcats have senior QB with 37 career starts.
— K-State lost three of its last five bowls.
— Wildcats (+3) won this bowl 33-28 five years ago.
— Four of last five K-State games stayed under.

— Underdogs covered last three Texas Bowls.
— Last 10 years, Big X teams are 5-3 ATS in Texas Bowls.
— SEC teams are 21-15 SU in last 36 games vs Big X opponents.
 

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