First Post - thru Dec. 23
NCAAF
Bowl Season
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Trend Report
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NCAAF
Bowl Season
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Trend Report
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First Post - thru Dec. 18
NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Bowl Season
December 17
Bahamas Bowl
Middle Tennessee (6-6) vs Toledo (7-5)
— MTSU won four of last six games to get to .500.
— MTSU is 5-0 if they allow 17 or less points, 1-6 if they allow 24+
— They’re +11 in turnovers, despite being minus-7 vs WKU.
— Blue Raiders are 2-4-1 ATS this year as an underdog.
— MTSU has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Blue Raiders have 49 returning starts on offensive line.
— MTSU have played pair of junior QB’s.
— Under is 7-4 in Blue Raider games this season.
— MTSU is 2-6 SU in bowls; their last bowl was 2018.
— Blue Raiders covered once in last five bowls.
— MTSU (+4.5) lost this bowl 45-31 to Western Michigan in ’15.
— Toledo won its last three games, scoring 44.3 ppg.
— Rockets have four losses by 2 or 3 points.
— Rockets have three losses this year, when favored by 9+ points.
— All seven Toledo wins are by 10+ points.
— Toledo is 8-6 ATS last 14 games as a favorite.
— Rockets have a +11 turnover ratio this year.
— Rockets have 10 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
— Toledo has 101 returning starts on offensive line.
— Last four Toledo games went over the total.
— Rockets lost their last three bowls, are 10-8 overall.
— Toledo (-7) lost this bowl 35-32 to FIU in 2018.
— Rockets’ last bowl win: 2015.
— C-USA/split the six Bahamas Bowls.
— Favorites are 3-3 ATS in this bowl.
— MAC teams are 2-0 vs C-USA this year, after going 1-9 in 2018-19.
— Favorites are 15-7 ATS in last 22 games between the two leagues.
Cure Bowl (Orlando)
Northern Illinois (9-4) vs Coastal Carolina (10-2)
— NIU won eight of its last ten games (7-3 ATS).
— Huskies were 0-6 last year, so this is a big deal for them,
— Huskies have four wins by 1 or 2 points.
— Huskies gave up 50-63-52-42 points in their four losses.
— NIU is 5-3-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
— Huskies have nine starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— NIU has 59 returning starts on offensive line.
— NIU’s junior QB has 23 career starts (9 @ Michigan St).
— Huskies won the MAC title game December 4.
— Five of last seven NIU games went over the total.
— Huskies lost last five bowls, giving up 40.2 ppg.
— Their last bowl win was nine years ago.
— Chanticleers went 4-2 in last six games, after 6-0 start.
— Coastal is 1-5 ATS in its last six games.
— Coastal’s two losses were by total of five points.
— Coastal ran for 200+ yards in 10 of their 12 games.
— Chanticleers have 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Coastal has 137 returning starts on offensive line.
— Coastal’s QB has 24 career starts.
— Chanticleers are 3-8 ATS as a home favorite.
— Four of Coastal’s five I-A wins are by 27+ points.
— Under is 7-3 in Chanticleers’ last ten games.
— Coastal (-7) lost 37-34 in OT in this game LY, their first-ever bowl.
— Underdogs won this bowl SU four of last five years.
— Sun Belt teams are 2-4 SU in this bowl.
— Sun Belt teams are 17-11 SU in last 29 games vs MAC teams.
— MAC teams are 10-4 ATS as an underdog against Sun Belt squads.
December 18
Boca Raton Bowl
Western Kentucky (8-5) vs Appalachian State (10-3)
— WKU is 7-1 in last eight games, losing C-USA title tilt to UTSA.
— WKU started season 1-4, before going on this 7-1 run.
— Hilltoppers scored 31+ points in all five of their losses.
— WKU scored 41+ points in eight of last nine games.
— Hilltoppers threw for 495+ yards in three of last four games.
— WKU has 6 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
— Hilltoppers have 75 returning starts on offensive line.
— WKU’s QB played four years at I-AA Houston Baptist (48 starts)
— WKU is 3-2 ATS this season in games with single digit spread.
— Over is 8-4 in Hilltopper games this year.
— WKU is 3-2 SU in last five bowls (were favored in all five)
— Hilltoppers won this bowl 51-31 over Memphis in 2016.
— Four of WKU’s last five games went over the total.
— App State is 6-1 last seven games, losing Sun Belt title tilt to ULL.
— ASU is 10-0 when they score 27+ points, 0-3 when they don’t.
— App State covered five of its last seven games.
— App State has 7 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— ASU has 69 returning starts on the offensive line.
— App State has a QB with 24 starts- he transferred from Duke.
— ASU is 6-0 all-time in bowl games.
— Mountaineers scored 39.4 ppg in last five bowls.
— Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.
— App State is 3-3 ATS this year in games with single digit spread.
— Favorites are 5-2 ATS in this bowl.
— Conference USA teams are 5-1 ATS in this game.
— Sun Belt teams are 20-15 ATS last 35 games vs C-USA teams.
— Sun Belt teams are 4-2 ATS vs C-USA teams this year.
NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Bowl Season
December 17
Bahamas Bowl
Middle Tennessee (6-6) vs Toledo (7-5)
— MTSU won four of last six games to get to .500.
— MTSU is 5-0 if they allow 17 or less points, 1-6 if they allow 24+
— They’re +11 in turnovers, despite being minus-7 vs WKU.
— Blue Raiders are 2-4-1 ATS this year as an underdog.
— MTSU has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Blue Raiders have 49 returning starts on offensive line.
— MTSU have played pair of junior QB’s.
— Under is 7-4 in Blue Raider games this season.
— MTSU is 2-6 SU in bowls; their last bowl was 2018.
— Blue Raiders covered once in last five bowls.
— MTSU (+4.5) lost this bowl 45-31 to Western Michigan in ’15.
— Toledo won its last three games, scoring 44.3 ppg.
— Rockets have four losses by 2 or 3 points.
— Rockets have three losses this year, when favored by 9+ points.
— All seven Toledo wins are by 10+ points.
— Toledo is 8-6 ATS last 14 games as a favorite.
— Rockets have a +11 turnover ratio this year.
— Rockets have 10 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
— Toledo has 101 returning starts on offensive line.
— Last four Toledo games went over the total.
— Rockets lost their last three bowls, are 10-8 overall.
— Toledo (-7) lost this bowl 35-32 to FIU in 2018.
— Rockets’ last bowl win: 2015.
— C-USA/split the six Bahamas Bowls.
— Favorites are 3-3 ATS in this bowl.
— MAC teams are 2-0 vs C-USA this year, after going 1-9 in 2018-19.
— Favorites are 15-7 ATS in last 22 games between the two leagues.
Cure Bowl (Orlando)
Northern Illinois (9-4) vs Coastal Carolina (10-2)
— NIU won eight of its last ten games (7-3 ATS).
— Huskies were 0-6 last year, so this is a big deal for them,
— Huskies have four wins by 1 or 2 points.
— Huskies gave up 50-63-52-42 points in their four losses.
— NIU is 5-3-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
— Huskies have nine starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— NIU has 59 returning starts on offensive line.
— NIU’s junior QB has 23 career starts (9 @ Michigan St).
— Huskies won the MAC title game December 4.
— Five of last seven NIU games went over the total.
— Huskies lost last five bowls, giving up 40.2 ppg.
— Their last bowl win was nine years ago.
— Chanticleers went 4-2 in last six games, after 6-0 start.
— Coastal is 1-5 ATS in its last six games.
— Coastal’s two losses were by total of five points.
— Coastal ran for 200+ yards in 10 of their 12 games.
— Chanticleers have 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Coastal has 137 returning starts on offensive line.
— Coastal’s QB has 24 career starts.
— Chanticleers are 3-8 ATS as a home favorite.
— Four of Coastal’s five I-A wins are by 27+ points.
— Under is 7-3 in Chanticleers’ last ten games.
— Coastal (-7) lost 37-34 in OT in this game LY, their first-ever bowl.
— Underdogs won this bowl SU four of last five years.
— Sun Belt teams are 2-4 SU in this bowl.
— Sun Belt teams are 17-11 SU in last 29 games vs MAC teams.
— MAC teams are 10-4 ATS as an underdog against Sun Belt squads.
December 18
Boca Raton Bowl
Western Kentucky (8-5) vs Appalachian State (10-3)
— WKU is 7-1 in last eight games, losing C-USA title tilt to UTSA.
— WKU started season 1-4, before going on this 7-1 run.
— Hilltoppers scored 31+ points in all five of their losses.
— WKU scored 41+ points in eight of last nine games.
— Hilltoppers threw for 495+ yards in three of last four games.
— WKU has 6 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
— Hilltoppers have 75 returning starts on offensive line.
— WKU’s QB played four years at I-AA Houston Baptist (48 starts)
— WKU is 3-2 ATS this season in games with single digit spread.
— Over is 8-4 in Hilltopper games this year.
— WKU is 3-2 SU in last five bowls (were favored in all five)
— Hilltoppers won this bowl 51-31 over Memphis in 2016.
— Four of WKU’s last five games went over the total.
— App State is 6-1 last seven games, losing Sun Belt title tilt to ULL.
— ASU is 10-0 when they score 27+ points, 0-3 when they don’t.
— App State covered five of its last seven games.
— App State has 7 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— ASU has 69 returning starts on the offensive line.
— App State has a QB with 24 starts- he transferred from Duke.
— ASU is 6-0 all-time in bowl games.
— Mountaineers scored 39.4 ppg in last five bowls.
— Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.
— App State is 3-3 ATS this year in games with single digit spread.
— Favorites are 5-2 ATS in this bowl.
— Conference USA teams are 5-1 ATS in this game.
— Sun Belt teams are 20-15 ATS last 35 games vs C-USA teams.
— Sun Belt teams are 4-2 ATS vs C-USA teams this year.
New Mexico Bowl
Texas-El Paso (7-5) vs Fresno State (9-3)
— UTEP was 5-39 the last four years; they’ve had a great year.
— That said, Miners lost four of last five games, after a 6-1 start.
— UTEP allowed 32.4 ppg in last five games.
— Miners have 11 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— UTEP has 101 returning starts on offensive line.
— UTEP’s soph QB has 19 starts.
— UTEP is 7-5 ATS in last dozen games as an underdog.
— This is UTEP’s first bowl since 2014.
— Miners are 0-5 in bowls this century; their last bowl win? 1967.
— UTEP this bowl game 52-24/21-6 in 2010/2014.
— Four of last five UTEP games overall went over the total.
— Fresno’s coach, OC and QB have all bolted team.
— Fresno may play two QB’s here- they threw combined 21 passes TY.
— Bulldogs re-hired former HC Jeff Tedford as head coach.
— Fresno won five of its last six games.
— Bulldogs are 8-0 if they score 30+ points, 1-3 if they don’t.
— Bulldogs were held to 24 or fewer points in their losses.
— Fresno is 3-2 SU on road, winning by 3-17-10 points.
— Fresno has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Bulldogs have 51 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Bulldogs are 8-6 ATS last 14 games as favorites.
— Fresno won last two bowls, 33-27/31-20.
— Under is 5-2 in last seven Fresno games.
— Last ten years, favorites are 5-5 ATS in this bowl.
— Since 2013, Mountain West teams are 6-2 SU/4-4 ATS in this bowl.
— C-USA underdogs are 8-5 ATS in last 13 games vs MW teams.
— Mountain West teams are 9-7 SU last 16 games vs C-USA squads.
Independence Bowl (Shreveport, LA)
UAB (8-4) vs BYU (10-2)
— UAB is 5-2 in last seven games, losing by 6-3 points.
— Blazers ran ball for 220+ yards in three of last four games.
— UAB covered three of four games as an underdog this year.
— Blazers scored 31+ points in five of last seven games.
— UAB is 7-0 giving up 25 or less points, 1-4 giving up 30+.
— UAB has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— UAB has 87 returning starts on offensive line.
— Blazers’ soph QB has started 17 games.
— UAB is 4-1 ATS this year in games with single digit spread.
— UAB is 1-3 in bowls, beat Northern Illinois 37-13 in 2018.
— Four of Blazers’ last five games went over the total.
— BYU won its last five games, scoring 43 ppg.
— Eight of ten Cougar wins are by 8+ points.
— BYU beat Virginia, is 4-0 vs Pac-12 teams this year.
— BYU covered once in last six lined games.
— Cougars are 10-16 ATS last 26 games as a favorite.
— Cougars have 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
— BYU has 86 returning starts on the offensive line.
— BYU has soph QB with eight starts.
— Under Sitake, BYU is 11-13 ATS as home favorites.
— BYU won three of last four bowls, scoring 39 ppg.
— Favorites are 3-2 ATS in their last five bowls.
— Under is 7-4 in BYU games this season.
— Underdogs covered this bowl four of last six years.
— Last ten years, C-USA teams are 2-1 ATS in this bowl.
— Last five years, total in Independence Bowl was 55+ four times.
LendingTree Bowl (Mobile, AL)
Eastern Michigan (7-5) @ Liberty (7-5)
— EMU is 5-0 when it scores 35+ points, 2-5 when it doesn’t.
— EMU is 5-0 when it allows 27 or less, 2-5 when it allows 28+ points.
— Eagles scored 19.3 ppg in their last three games.
— Eastern allowed 200+ YR in seven of 11 I-A games.
— Eagles have 10 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
— EMU has 92 returning starts on offensive line.
— EMU’s soph QB has 14 starts (2 at Cincinnati).
— Eagles are 27-11-1 ATS last 39 games as an underdog.
— EMU lost last three bowls, by 4-2-4 points.
— Eagles are 1-3 all-time in bowls; win was in 1987.
— EMU’s last three games stayed under the total.
— Liberty lost last three games, after a 7-2 start.
— Liberty is 6-0 when it scores 35+, 1-5 when it doesn’t.
— Flames scored 14-14-16 points in last three games.
— Liberty is 6-0 when it allows 17 or less, 1-5 when it allows more.
— Flames allowed 33.3 ppg in their last three games.
— Under Freeze, Liberty is 11-7 ATS as a favorite.
— Liberty has 11 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Liberty has 127 returning starts on offensive line.
— Flames’ junior QB has 22 career starts.
— Under Freeze, Liberty is 9-4 ATS as home favorites.
— Liberty is 2-0 in bowls, winning 23-16/37-34 last two years.
— Last three Liberty games stayed under the total.
— Underdogs are 6-4 ATS in this bowl the last decade.
— Last nine years, MAC teams are 2-6 ATS in this bowl.
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl (Los Angeles)
Oregon State (7-5) vs Utah State (10-3)
— This is Oregon State’s first bowl since 2013.
— Oregon State is 3-4 in last seven games, after a 4-1 start.
— OSU is 1-5 on road this year; only win was at USC, here in LA.
— Beavers are 6-0 giving up 27 or less points, 1-5 giving up 30+.
— Beavers ran ball for 200+ yards in nine of 12 games.
— Oregon State is 14-6-1 ATS last 21 games as an underdog.
— Beavers have 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Oregon State has 36 returning starts on offensive line.
— OSU’s soph QB has 15 career starts
— Oregon State is 3-2 in last five bowls (favored in all five).
— Over is 4-2 in last six Oregon State games.
— Utah State won seven of its last eight games.
— Aggies crushed San Diego State 46-13 in MW title game Dec 4th.
— Aggies are 10-0 scoring 26+ points, 0-3 when they don’t.
— Utah is 4-0 in games decided by four or less points.
— Aggies have 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Utah State has 69 returning starts on offensive line.
— USU’s QB has 28 career starts- he played at Ark State for coach Anderson.
— Aggies are 6-4 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Utah State is 18-7-1 ATS last 26 games as a favorite.
— Over is 4-2 in last six Utah State games.
— Utah State lost three of last four bowl games (favored in all four)
— Mountain West teams are 17-12 ATS last 29 games vs Pac-12.
— Mountain West teams are 6-3 ATS this year vs Pac-12.
New Orleans Bowl
Louisiana (12-1) vs Marshall (7-5)
— Coach Napier is off to Florida; the OC is the new coach.
— Louisiana won 12 games in row since 38-18 loss at Texas.
— Cajuns beat App State 24-16 in Sun Belt title game Dec 4th.
— Last six games, ULL is +13 in turnovers.
— Cajuns are 5-0 SU at home (three wins by 5 or less points)
— ULL held five of last six opponents to 17 or less points.
— Cajuns have 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Louisiana has 140 returning starts on offensive line.
— Cajuns’ senior QB has started 40 games.
— Last two years, Louisiana is 6-10 ATS as favorites.
— Louisiana is 6-2 in bowls, winning last two, 27-17/31-24.
— Eight of Louisiana’s last ten games stayed under total.
— Louisiana figures to have home crowd edge in New Orleans.
— Marshall lost two of its last three games.
— Thundering Herd gave up 36.2 ppg in losses, 13.5 in I-A wins.
— Marshall is minus-5 in turnovers this year.
— Thundering Herd is 1-4 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Marshall gained 447+ TY in four of last six games.
— Thundering Herd has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Marshall has 137 returning starts on offensive line.
— Thundering Herd has a QB with 22 starts.
— Last two years, Marshall is 3-0 ATS as an underdog.
— Marshall is 12-4 in bowls; they lost last two, 48-25/17-10.
— Under is 6-2 in last eight Marshall games.
— Favorites covered this bowl five of last six years.
— Last six years, C-USA teams are 2-4 ATS in this bowl.
— Sun Belt teams are 20-15 ATS last 35 games vs C-USA teams.
— Sun Belt teams are 4-2 ATS vs C-USA teams this year.
Texas-El Paso (7-5) vs Fresno State (9-3)
— UTEP was 5-39 the last four years; they’ve had a great year.
— That said, Miners lost four of last five games, after a 6-1 start.
— UTEP allowed 32.4 ppg in last five games.
— Miners have 11 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— UTEP has 101 returning starts on offensive line.
— UTEP’s soph QB has 19 starts.
— UTEP is 7-5 ATS in last dozen games as an underdog.
— This is UTEP’s first bowl since 2014.
— Miners are 0-5 in bowls this century; their last bowl win? 1967.
— UTEP this bowl game 52-24/21-6 in 2010/2014.
— Four of last five UTEP games overall went over the total.
— Fresno’s coach, OC and QB have all bolted team.
— Fresno may play two QB’s here- they threw combined 21 passes TY.
— Bulldogs re-hired former HC Jeff Tedford as head coach.
— Fresno won five of its last six games.
— Bulldogs are 8-0 if they score 30+ points, 1-3 if they don’t.
— Bulldogs were held to 24 or fewer points in their losses.
— Fresno is 3-2 SU on road, winning by 3-17-10 points.
— Fresno has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Bulldogs have 51 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Bulldogs are 8-6 ATS last 14 games as favorites.
— Fresno won last two bowls, 33-27/31-20.
— Under is 5-2 in last seven Fresno games.
— Last ten years, favorites are 5-5 ATS in this bowl.
— Since 2013, Mountain West teams are 6-2 SU/4-4 ATS in this bowl.
— C-USA underdogs are 8-5 ATS in last 13 games vs MW teams.
— Mountain West teams are 9-7 SU last 16 games vs C-USA squads.
Independence Bowl (Shreveport, LA)
UAB (8-4) vs BYU (10-2)
— UAB is 5-2 in last seven games, losing by 6-3 points.
— Blazers ran ball for 220+ yards in three of last four games.
— UAB covered three of four games as an underdog this year.
— Blazers scored 31+ points in five of last seven games.
— UAB is 7-0 giving up 25 or less points, 1-4 giving up 30+.
— UAB has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— UAB has 87 returning starts on offensive line.
— Blazers’ soph QB has started 17 games.
— UAB is 4-1 ATS this year in games with single digit spread.
— UAB is 1-3 in bowls, beat Northern Illinois 37-13 in 2018.
— Four of Blazers’ last five games went over the total.
— BYU won its last five games, scoring 43 ppg.
— Eight of ten Cougar wins are by 8+ points.
— BYU beat Virginia, is 4-0 vs Pac-12 teams this year.
— BYU covered once in last six lined games.
— Cougars are 10-16 ATS last 26 games as a favorite.
— Cougars have 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
— BYU has 86 returning starts on the offensive line.
— BYU has soph QB with eight starts.
— Under Sitake, BYU is 11-13 ATS as home favorites.
— BYU won three of last four bowls, scoring 39 ppg.
— Favorites are 3-2 ATS in their last five bowls.
— Under is 7-4 in BYU games this season.
— Underdogs covered this bowl four of last six years.
— Last ten years, C-USA teams are 2-1 ATS in this bowl.
— Last five years, total in Independence Bowl was 55+ four times.
LendingTree Bowl (Mobile, AL)
Eastern Michigan (7-5) @ Liberty (7-5)
— EMU is 5-0 when it scores 35+ points, 2-5 when it doesn’t.
— EMU is 5-0 when it allows 27 or less, 2-5 when it allows 28+ points.
— Eagles scored 19.3 ppg in their last three games.
— Eastern allowed 200+ YR in seven of 11 I-A games.
— Eagles have 10 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
— EMU has 92 returning starts on offensive line.
— EMU’s soph QB has 14 starts (2 at Cincinnati).
— Eagles are 27-11-1 ATS last 39 games as an underdog.
— EMU lost last three bowls, by 4-2-4 points.
— Eagles are 1-3 all-time in bowls; win was in 1987.
— EMU’s last three games stayed under the total.
— Liberty lost last three games, after a 7-2 start.
— Liberty is 6-0 when it scores 35+, 1-5 when it doesn’t.
— Flames scored 14-14-16 points in last three games.
— Liberty is 6-0 when it allows 17 or less, 1-5 when it allows more.
— Flames allowed 33.3 ppg in their last three games.
— Under Freeze, Liberty is 11-7 ATS as a favorite.
— Liberty has 11 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Liberty has 127 returning starts on offensive line.
— Flames’ junior QB has 22 career starts.
— Under Freeze, Liberty is 9-4 ATS as home favorites.
— Liberty is 2-0 in bowls, winning 23-16/37-34 last two years.
— Last three Liberty games stayed under the total.
— Underdogs are 6-4 ATS in this bowl the last decade.
— Last nine years, MAC teams are 2-6 ATS in this bowl.
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl (Los Angeles)
Oregon State (7-5) vs Utah State (10-3)
— This is Oregon State’s first bowl since 2013.
— Oregon State is 3-4 in last seven games, after a 4-1 start.
— OSU is 1-5 on road this year; only win was at USC, here in LA.
— Beavers are 6-0 giving up 27 or less points, 1-5 giving up 30+.
— Beavers ran ball for 200+ yards in nine of 12 games.
— Oregon State is 14-6-1 ATS last 21 games as an underdog.
— Beavers have 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Oregon State has 36 returning starts on offensive line.
— OSU’s soph QB has 15 career starts
— Oregon State is 3-2 in last five bowls (favored in all five).
— Over is 4-2 in last six Oregon State games.
— Utah State won seven of its last eight games.
— Aggies crushed San Diego State 46-13 in MW title game Dec 4th.
— Aggies are 10-0 scoring 26+ points, 0-3 when they don’t.
— Utah is 4-0 in games decided by four or less points.
— Aggies have 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Utah State has 69 returning starts on offensive line.
— USU’s QB has 28 career starts- he played at Ark State for coach Anderson.
— Aggies are 6-4 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Utah State is 18-7-1 ATS last 26 games as a favorite.
— Over is 4-2 in last six Utah State games.
— Utah State lost three of last four bowl games (favored in all four)
— Mountain West teams are 17-12 ATS last 29 games vs Pac-12.
— Mountain West teams are 6-3 ATS this year vs Pac-12.
New Orleans Bowl
Louisiana (12-1) vs Marshall (7-5)
— Coach Napier is off to Florida; the OC is the new coach.
— Louisiana won 12 games in row since 38-18 loss at Texas.
— Cajuns beat App State 24-16 in Sun Belt title game Dec 4th.
— Last six games, ULL is +13 in turnovers.
— Cajuns are 5-0 SU at home (three wins by 5 or less points)
— ULL held five of last six opponents to 17 or less points.
— Cajuns have 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Louisiana has 140 returning starts on offensive line.
— Cajuns’ senior QB has started 40 games.
— Last two years, Louisiana is 6-10 ATS as favorites.
— Louisiana is 6-2 in bowls, winning last two, 27-17/31-24.
— Eight of Louisiana’s last ten games stayed under total.
— Louisiana figures to have home crowd edge in New Orleans.
— Marshall lost two of its last three games.
— Thundering Herd gave up 36.2 ppg in losses, 13.5 in I-A wins.
— Marshall is minus-5 in turnovers this year.
— Thundering Herd is 1-4 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Marshall gained 447+ TY in four of last six games.
— Thundering Herd has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Marshall has 137 returning starts on offensive line.
— Thundering Herd has a QB with 22 starts.
— Last two years, Marshall is 3-0 ATS as an underdog.
— Marshall is 12-4 in bowls; they lost last two, 48-25/17-10.
— Under is 6-2 in last eight Marshall games.
— Favorites covered this bowl five of last six years.
— Last six years, C-USA teams are 2-4 ATS in this bowl.
— Sun Belt teams are 20-15 ATS last 35 games vs C-USA teams.
— Sun Belt teams are 4-2 ATS vs C-USA teams this year.
Bowl Tech Trends - Week 1
Bruce Marshall
Friday, Dec. 17
BAHAMAS BOWL
TOLEDO vs. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)
Blue Raiders only 2-4 as dog this season after covering 5 of last 6 getting points last season.
Stockstill no bowls since 2018 but MTSU just 1-5 SU and vs. line last six bowl games since 2010.
Rockets won and covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 in 2021 after it looked like they might miss bowling, also closed season “over” last 4 games.
Toledo has also lost and failed to cover its last 3 bowls (last in 2018).
Tech Edge: Slight to Toledo, based on team trends.
CURE BOWL
COASTAL CAROLINA vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS (ESPN2, 6:00 p.m.)
Huskies 7-3 vs. line in ten away from DeKalb since last season.
First bowl since 2018 Boca Raton, and note NIU had lost and failed to cover six straight bowls to that point.
After 12-4-1 spread surge into midseason, Chants dropped 5 of last 6 vs. spread, though they are 21-3 SU since 2020.
Note “unders” in all five of Coastal’s games away from Conway this season.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Coastal, based on “totals” and extended trends.
Saturday, Dec. 18
BOCA RATON BOWL
APPALACHIAN STATE vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY (ESPN, 11:00 a.m.)
Tops 9-4 vs. spread in 2021, had five-game cover streak into C-USA title game. Also “over” 9-4 this season.
Mounties finished season “under” 6-2 last 8, also fared better vs. line than a year ago as well (7-5 vs. spread in 2021 vs. 3-9 a year ago).
App 5-0 SU, 4-1 vs. line in bowls the past five years.
Tech Edge: Slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.
NEW MEXICO BOWL
UTEP vs. FRESNO STATE (ESPN, 2:15 p.m.)
First Miners bowl game since 2014. Historically, UTEP has lost and failed to cover last six bowls since winning 1967 Sun Bowl over Johnny Vaught’s Ole Miss, 14-7.
Dimel lost 4 of last 5 SU and covered only 2 of last 5 after breaking 6-1 from gate this season, also “over” 4-1 last five in 2021.
DeBoer not coaching this game for Bulldogs after 9-3 SU, 8-4 spread mark this season, Bulldogs 5-1 vs. spread six away from home this season.
First bowl since 2018, after old/new HC Jeff Tedford (though not until 2022) won and covered in 2017 (Hawaii) and 2018 (Las Vegas).
Tech Edge: Slight to Fresno, based on team trends.
INDEPENDENCE BOWL
UAB vs. BYU (ABC, 3:30 p.m.)
Blazers covered last three this season and were 8-4 vs. line.
UAB 3-1 as dog TY, though Bill Clark just 4-6 in role since 2019. He was 13-6 getting points his first three years with Blazers, however, and 2-1 vs. line in bowls.
Cougs failed to cover last four and five of six overall away from Provo this season. Also 2-5 vs. spread last seven in 2021.
Sitake 3-1 SU, 2-2 vs. line in bowls.
Tech Edge: UAB, based on team trends.
LENDINGTREE BOWL
EASTERN MICHIGAN vs. LIBERTY (ESPN, 5:45 p.m.)
Eagles were only 1-2 vs. spread in long-profitable “dog away from Ypslianti role” that had cashed 21-2 in 23 prior chances.
Chris Creighton 0-3 SU but 3-0 vs. line in bowls with EMU.
Hugh Freeze cooled down considerably this season, just 1-5 last six vs. line after 14-3 spread mark prior since beginning of 2020.
Tech Edge: EMU, based on extended and team trends.
L.A. BOWL
UTAH STATE vs. OREGON STATE (ABC, 7:30 p.m.)
Utags quick turnaround this season for Blake Anderson, 10-3 SU and 9-4 vs. line including covers all three outside of Mountain West.
Also 7-0 SU, 6-1 vs. spread away from Logan, and 5-2 as dog.
At Ark State, Anderson 2-4 SU and vs. line in bowls.
Beavers 4-3 as chalk in 2021. OSU last bowl was 2013 Hawaii Bowl.
Tech Edge: Utah State, based on recent trends.
NEW ORLEANS BOWL
MARSHALL vs. UL-LAFAYETTE (ESPN, 9:15 p.m.)
Cajuns had dropped first four vs. line away from home this season before winning and covering last two.
ULL just 11-16 last 27 on board since mid 2019, failed to cover bowls last three years.
Cajuns also “under” 17-6 past two seasons.
First Herd bowl with Huff, and MU has lost and failed to cover last two bowls, but had won and covered seven in a row previously between 2009-18.
Herd covered 4 of last 6 this season and “under” 6-2 last 8.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Marshall, based on “totals” and team trends.
Monday, Dec. 20
MYRTLE BEACH BOWL
OLD DOMINION vs. TULSA (ESPN, 2:30 p.m.)
Monarchs closed season with a rush, winning and covering last five games for Rahne, and 8-3 vs. line this season. ODU also “under” 5-2 last seven.
Golden Hurricane covered last 2 as chalk this season but still just 3-5 laying points in 2021, though Tulsa did cover last four in 2021.
Tulsa 10-2 vs. points away from home since last season, and "over' 9-3 in 2021.
Note Philip Montgomery covered first two bowl chances in 2015 & ‘16.
Tech Edge: Slight to Tulsa, based on extended trends.
Tuesday, Dec. 21
POTATO BOWL
WYOMING vs. KENT STATE (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)
Golden Flashes 0-3 vs. line vs. FBS-level non-MAC foes this season, also 1-6 vs. spread away from Dix Stadium in 2021.
Sean Lewis did however win and cover his lone bowl chance in 2019.
Cowboys were 1-6-1 their last 8 away vs. line before late-season covers at Boise & USU.
Bohl is 3-0 vs. line in bowls with Wyo.
Tech Edge: Slight to Wyoming, based on team and extended trends.
SAN DIEGO STATE vs. UTSA (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)
Roadrunners had won and covered five straight on road this season until North Texas loss.
UTSA on 11-4 spread uptick since late 2020.
Aztecs lost 27-0 to Ohio U in this bowl in 2018.
Tech Edge: UTSA, based on team trends.
Wednesday, Dec. 22
ARMED FORCES BOWL
MISSOURI vs. ARMY (ESPN, 8:00 p.m.)
Tigers only 3-9 vs. spread in 2021, and that was with covers in three of last four. Spread skid had reached 11 since late 2020 at that point.
Drinkwitz 2-4 as dog this season.
Monken has covered last three bowl tries with West Point and is 3-1 SU in four bowls with Black Knights.
Tech Edge: Army, based on team trends.
Bruce Marshall
Friday, Dec. 17
BAHAMAS BOWL
TOLEDO vs. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)
Blue Raiders only 2-4 as dog this season after covering 5 of last 6 getting points last season.
Stockstill no bowls since 2018 but MTSU just 1-5 SU and vs. line last six bowl games since 2010.
Rockets won and covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 in 2021 after it looked like they might miss bowling, also closed season “over” last 4 games.
Toledo has also lost and failed to cover its last 3 bowls (last in 2018).
Tech Edge: Slight to Toledo, based on team trends.
CURE BOWL
COASTAL CAROLINA vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS (ESPN2, 6:00 p.m.)
Huskies 7-3 vs. line in ten away from DeKalb since last season.
First bowl since 2018 Boca Raton, and note NIU had lost and failed to cover six straight bowls to that point.
After 12-4-1 spread surge into midseason, Chants dropped 5 of last 6 vs. spread, though they are 21-3 SU since 2020.
Note “unders” in all five of Coastal’s games away from Conway this season.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Coastal, based on “totals” and extended trends.
Saturday, Dec. 18
BOCA RATON BOWL
APPALACHIAN STATE vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY (ESPN, 11:00 a.m.)
Tops 9-4 vs. spread in 2021, had five-game cover streak into C-USA title game. Also “over” 9-4 this season.
Mounties finished season “under” 6-2 last 8, also fared better vs. line than a year ago as well (7-5 vs. spread in 2021 vs. 3-9 a year ago).
App 5-0 SU, 4-1 vs. line in bowls the past five years.
Tech Edge: Slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.
NEW MEXICO BOWL
UTEP vs. FRESNO STATE (ESPN, 2:15 p.m.)
First Miners bowl game since 2014. Historically, UTEP has lost and failed to cover last six bowls since winning 1967 Sun Bowl over Johnny Vaught’s Ole Miss, 14-7.
Dimel lost 4 of last 5 SU and covered only 2 of last 5 after breaking 6-1 from gate this season, also “over” 4-1 last five in 2021.
DeBoer not coaching this game for Bulldogs after 9-3 SU, 8-4 spread mark this season, Bulldogs 5-1 vs. spread six away from home this season.
First bowl since 2018, after old/new HC Jeff Tedford (though not until 2022) won and covered in 2017 (Hawaii) and 2018 (Las Vegas).
Tech Edge: Slight to Fresno, based on team trends.
INDEPENDENCE BOWL
UAB vs. BYU (ABC, 3:30 p.m.)
Blazers covered last three this season and were 8-4 vs. line.
UAB 3-1 as dog TY, though Bill Clark just 4-6 in role since 2019. He was 13-6 getting points his first three years with Blazers, however, and 2-1 vs. line in bowls.
Cougs failed to cover last four and five of six overall away from Provo this season. Also 2-5 vs. spread last seven in 2021.
Sitake 3-1 SU, 2-2 vs. line in bowls.
Tech Edge: UAB, based on team trends.
LENDINGTREE BOWL
EASTERN MICHIGAN vs. LIBERTY (ESPN, 5:45 p.m.)
Eagles were only 1-2 vs. spread in long-profitable “dog away from Ypslianti role” that had cashed 21-2 in 23 prior chances.
Chris Creighton 0-3 SU but 3-0 vs. line in bowls with EMU.
Hugh Freeze cooled down considerably this season, just 1-5 last six vs. line after 14-3 spread mark prior since beginning of 2020.
Tech Edge: EMU, based on extended and team trends.
L.A. BOWL
UTAH STATE vs. OREGON STATE (ABC, 7:30 p.m.)
Utags quick turnaround this season for Blake Anderson, 10-3 SU and 9-4 vs. line including covers all three outside of Mountain West.
Also 7-0 SU, 6-1 vs. spread away from Logan, and 5-2 as dog.
At Ark State, Anderson 2-4 SU and vs. line in bowls.
Beavers 4-3 as chalk in 2021. OSU last bowl was 2013 Hawaii Bowl.
Tech Edge: Utah State, based on recent trends.
NEW ORLEANS BOWL
MARSHALL vs. UL-LAFAYETTE (ESPN, 9:15 p.m.)
Cajuns had dropped first four vs. line away from home this season before winning and covering last two.
ULL just 11-16 last 27 on board since mid 2019, failed to cover bowls last three years.
Cajuns also “under” 17-6 past two seasons.
First Herd bowl with Huff, and MU has lost and failed to cover last two bowls, but had won and covered seven in a row previously between 2009-18.
Herd covered 4 of last 6 this season and “under” 6-2 last 8.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Marshall, based on “totals” and team trends.
Monday, Dec. 20
MYRTLE BEACH BOWL
OLD DOMINION vs. TULSA (ESPN, 2:30 p.m.)
Monarchs closed season with a rush, winning and covering last five games for Rahne, and 8-3 vs. line this season. ODU also “under” 5-2 last seven.
Golden Hurricane covered last 2 as chalk this season but still just 3-5 laying points in 2021, though Tulsa did cover last four in 2021.
Tulsa 10-2 vs. points away from home since last season, and "over' 9-3 in 2021.
Note Philip Montgomery covered first two bowl chances in 2015 & ‘16.
Tech Edge: Slight to Tulsa, based on extended trends.
Tuesday, Dec. 21
POTATO BOWL
WYOMING vs. KENT STATE (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)
Golden Flashes 0-3 vs. line vs. FBS-level non-MAC foes this season, also 1-6 vs. spread away from Dix Stadium in 2021.
Sean Lewis did however win and cover his lone bowl chance in 2019.
Cowboys were 1-6-1 their last 8 away vs. line before late-season covers at Boise & USU.
Bohl is 3-0 vs. line in bowls with Wyo.
Tech Edge: Slight to Wyoming, based on team and extended trends.
SAN DIEGO STATE vs. UTSA (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)
Roadrunners had won and covered five straight on road this season until North Texas loss.
UTSA on 11-4 spread uptick since late 2020.
Aztecs lost 27-0 to Ohio U in this bowl in 2018.
Tech Edge: UTSA, based on team trends.
Wednesday, Dec. 22
ARMED FORCES BOWL
MISSOURI vs. ARMY (ESPN, 8:00 p.m.)
Tigers only 3-9 vs. spread in 2021, and that was with covers in three of last four. Spread skid had reached 11 since late 2020 at that point.
Drinkwitz 2-4 as dog this season.
Monken has covered last three bowl tries with West Point and is 3-1 SU in four bowls with Black Knights.
Tech Edge: Army, based on team trends.
Toledo has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games when playing in December.
Middle Tennessee has gone OVER the point total in five straight games when playing in December.
Toledo has won four of its last five games.
Middle Tennessee has lost four of its last five games after winning the game prior.
Northern Illinois has gone OVER the point total in four straight Bowl games.
Northern Illinois has failed to cover the spread in six straight Bowl games.
Coastal Carolina has won four of its last six games.
Middle Tennessee has gone OVER the point total in five straight games when playing in December.
Toledo has won four of its last five games.
Middle Tennessee has lost four of its last five games after winning the game prior.
Northern Illinois has gone OVER the point total in four straight Bowl games.
Northern Illinois has failed to cover the spread in six straight Bowl games.
Coastal Carolina has won four of its last six games.
DECEMBER'S OPINIONS AND BEST BETS THRU THE PLAYOFFS AND BOWL GAMES !
Date W-L-T % Units
12/11/2021............1-1-0...........50.00%..............-0.50
12/04/2021..........11-7-0............61.11%...........+16.50
12/03/2021............1-3-0............25.00%............-11.50
TOTALS:.............13-11-0............54.16%............+ 4.50
****************************
BEST BETS:
12/11/2021............1-1-0...........50.00%..............-0.50
12/04/2021............6-5-0............54.54%...........+.2.50
12/03/2021............1-3-0............25.00%............-11.50
TOTALS:.................8-9-0............47.05%............- 9.50
UPDATED 12/11/2021
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 17
Game Time(ET) Pick Units
NIU at CCU 06:00 PM
CCU -12.0
U 62.5
+500 +500
Date W-L-T % Units
12/11/2021............1-1-0...........50.00%..............-0.50
12/04/2021..........11-7-0............61.11%...........+16.50
12/03/2021............1-3-0............25.00%............-11.50
TOTALS:.............13-11-0............54.16%............+ 4.50
****************************
BEST BETS:
12/11/2021............1-1-0...........50.00%..............-0.50
12/04/2021............6-5-0............54.54%...........+.2.50
12/03/2021............1-3-0............25.00%............-11.50
TOTALS:.................8-9-0............47.05%............- 9.50
UPDATED 12/11/2021
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 17
Game Time(ET) Pick Units
NIU at CCU 06:00 PM
CCU -12.0
U 62.5
+500 +500
DECEMBER'S OPINIONS AND BEST BETS THRU THE PLAYOFFS AND BOWL GAMES !
Date W-L-T % Units
12/17/2021............0-2-0.............0.00%............-11.00
12/11/2021............1-1-0...........50.00%..............-0.50
12/04/2021..........11-7-0............61.11%...........+16.50
12/03/2021............1-3-0............25.00%............-11.50
TOTALS:.............13-13-0............50.00%............- 6.50
****************************
BEST BETS:
12/17/2021............0-2-0.............0.00%............-11.00
12/11/2021............1-1-0...........50.00%..............-0.50
12/04/2021............6-5-0............54.54%...........+.2.50
12/03/2021............1-3-0............25.00%............-11.50
TOTALS:...............8-11-0............42.10%............- 20.50
UPDATED 12/17/2021
Date W-L-T % Units
12/17/2021............0-2-0.............0.00%............-11.00
12/11/2021............1-1-0...........50.00%..............-0.50
12/04/2021..........11-7-0............61.11%...........+16.50
12/03/2021............1-3-0............25.00%............-11.50
TOTALS:.............13-13-0............50.00%............- 6.50
****************************
BEST BETS:
12/17/2021............0-2-0.............0.00%............-11.00
12/11/2021............1-1-0...........50.00%..............-0.50
12/04/2021............6-5-0............54.54%...........+.2.50
12/03/2021............1-3-0............25.00%............-11.50
TOTALS:...............8-11-0............42.10%............- 20.50
UPDATED 12/17/2021
Western Kentucky has covered the spread in five of its last six games.
Western Kentucky has gone OVER the point total in five straight games when playing in Florida.
Appalachian State has covered the spread in four of its last six games away from Boone.
UTEP has seen the favorite cover the spread in four straight games.
Fresno State has gone UNDER the point total in five of its last six games when facing a non-AP-ranked school.
Fresno State has covered the spread in five of its last six games away from home.
UAB has covered the spread in four of its last five games when playing as the underdog.
UAB has gone OVER the point total in four straight games when facing an AP-ranked Top 15 school.
BYU has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games away from home.
BYU has failed to cover the spread in six of its last nine games when playing as the favorite.
Eastern Michigan is 15-6 ATS in the past 21 non-conference games.
Eastern Michigan is 5-0 ATS in the past five games in December.
Eastern Michigan is 28-13 ATS in the past 41 games as an underdog.
Liberty is 4-0 ATS in the past four games in December.
Liberty is 1-5 ATS in the past six games overall.
Liberty is 0-4 ATS in the past four non-conference games.
The OVER is 5-2-1 in Eastern Michigan’s past eight non-conference games.
The OVER is 3-1-1 in Liberty’s past five games as a favorite.
Utah State has covered the spread in five straight games when playing in California.
Oregon State has gone OVER the point total in five of its last six games when playing in California.
Oregon State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games away from Corvallis.
Louisiana is 1-4 ATS in the past five neutral-site games.
Louisiana is 0-4 ATS in the past four bowl games.
Louisiana is 2-5 ATS in the past seven games as a favorite.
Marshall is 6-2 ATS in the past eight neutral-site games.
Marshall is 7-2 ATS in the past nine bowl games.
Marshall is 2-6 ATS in the past eight games against winning teams.
The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the past six bowl games for Louisiana.
The UNDER is 4-1 in the past five games overall for Marshall.
Western Kentucky has gone OVER the point total in five straight games when playing in Florida.
Appalachian State has covered the spread in four of its last six games away from Boone.
UTEP has seen the favorite cover the spread in four straight games.
Fresno State has gone UNDER the point total in five of its last six games when facing a non-AP-ranked school.
Fresno State has covered the spread in five of its last six games away from home.
UAB has covered the spread in four of its last five games when playing as the underdog.
UAB has gone OVER the point total in four straight games when facing an AP-ranked Top 15 school.
BYU has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games away from home.
BYU has failed to cover the spread in six of its last nine games when playing as the favorite.
Eastern Michigan is 15-6 ATS in the past 21 non-conference games.
Eastern Michigan is 5-0 ATS in the past five games in December.
Eastern Michigan is 28-13 ATS in the past 41 games as an underdog.
Liberty is 4-0 ATS in the past four games in December.
Liberty is 1-5 ATS in the past six games overall.
Liberty is 0-4 ATS in the past four non-conference games.
The OVER is 5-2-1 in Eastern Michigan’s past eight non-conference games.
The OVER is 3-1-1 in Liberty’s past five games as a favorite.
Utah State has covered the spread in five straight games when playing in California.
Oregon State has gone OVER the point total in five of its last six games when playing in California.
Oregon State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games away from Corvallis.
Louisiana is 1-4 ATS in the past five neutral-site games.
Louisiana is 0-4 ATS in the past four bowl games.
Louisiana is 2-5 ATS in the past seven games as a favorite.
Marshall is 6-2 ATS in the past eight neutral-site games.
Marshall is 7-2 ATS in the past nine bowl games.
Marshall is 2-6 ATS in the past eight games against winning teams.
The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the past six bowl games for Louisiana.
The UNDER is 4-1 in the past five games overall for Marshall.
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 18
Game Time(ET) Pick Units
WKU at APP 11:00 AM
WKU +2.5
U 67.0
+500 +500
UTEP at FRES 02:15 PM
FRES -11.0
U 51.5
+500 +500
UAB at BYU 03:30 PM
BYU -6.5
O 54.5
+500 +500
EMU at LIB 05:45 PM
EMU +10.0
O 58.5
+500 +500
USU at ORST 07:30 PM
USU +7.0
U 67.0
+500 +500
ULL at MRSH 09:15 PM
ULL -4.0
U 55.5
+500 +500
Game Time(ET) Pick Units
WKU at APP 11:00 AM
WKU +2.5
U 67.0
+500 +500
UTEP at FRES 02:15 PM
FRES -11.0
U 51.5
+500 +500
UAB at BYU 03:30 PM
BYU -6.5
O 54.5
+500 +500
EMU at LIB 05:45 PM
EMU +10.0
O 58.5
+500 +500
USU at ORST 07:30 PM
USU +7.0
U 67.0
+500 +500
ULL at MRSH 09:15 PM
ULL -4.0
U 55.5
+500 +500
DECEMBER'S OPINIONS AND BEST BETS THRU THE PLAYOFFS AND BOWL GAMES !
Date W-L-T % Units
12/18/2021............6-6-0...........50.00%.............-3.00
12/17/2021............0-2-0.............0.00%............-11.00
12/11/2021............1-1-0...........50.00%..............-0.50
12/04/2021..........11-7-0............61.11%...........+16.50
12/03/2021............1-3-0............25.00%............-11.50
TOTALS:.............19-19-0............50.00%............- 9.50
****************************
BEST BETS:
12/18/2021............6-2-0............75.00%..........+19.00
12/17/2021............0-2-0.............0.00%............-11.00
12/11/2021............1-1-0...........50.00%..............-0.50
12/04/2021............6-5-0............54.54%...........+.2.50
12/03/2021............1-3-0............25.00%............-11.50
TOTALS:..............14-13-0............51.85%............- 1,50
UPDATED 12/18/2021
Date W-L-T % Units
12/18/2021............6-6-0...........50.00%.............-3.00
12/17/2021............0-2-0.............0.00%............-11.00
12/11/2021............1-1-0...........50.00%..............-0.50
12/04/2021..........11-7-0............61.11%...........+16.50
12/03/2021............1-3-0............25.00%............-11.50
TOTALS:.............19-19-0............50.00%............- 9.50
****************************
BEST BETS:
12/18/2021............6-2-0............75.00%..........+19.00
12/17/2021............0-2-0.............0.00%............-11.00
12/11/2021............1-1-0...........50.00%..............-0.50
12/04/2021............6-5-0............54.54%...........+.2.50
12/03/2021............1-3-0............25.00%............-11.50
TOTALS:..............14-13-0............51.85%............- 1,50
UPDATED 12/18/2021
Dec. 20 thru Dec. 29
NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Bowl Season
December 20
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Old Dominion (6-6)vs Tulsa (6-6)
— Old Dominion won its last five games to get to 6-6
— Old Dominion sat out LY; they were 1-11 in 2019.
— Monarchs’ new coach was an OC at Penn State.
— ODU scored 39.3 ppg in its last four games.
— Monarchs are 5-3-1 ATS as an underdog this year.
— ODU has 7 starters back on offense, 3 on defense.
— Monarchs have 52 returning starts on OL, very little depth.
— ODU has QB who started 3 games at Central Florida.
— Monarchs are 6-3 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog.
— ODU won its one bowl, 24-20 (-5.5) over EMU in 2019.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— Tulsa is 5-2 last seven games, after a 1-4 start.
— Tulsa is 5-0 scoring 32+ points, 1-6 scoring 23 or less.
— Last six games, Golden Hurricane was minus-7 in turnovers.
— Golden Hurricane has 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Tulsa has 120 returning starts on offensive line.
— Tulsa’s soph QB has started 12 games.
— Tulsa is 10-7-1 ATS last 18 games as a favorite.
— Tulsa is 16-11 ATS last 27 non-league games.
— Tulsa split last four bowls; average total, 68.3.
— Over is 8-3 in Tulsa’s games this season.
— Favorite won/covered the first Myrtle Beach Bowl LY
— AAC favorites are 11-4 ATS last 15 games vs C-USA squads.
— Last six years, AAC teams are 26-11 SU vs C-USA teams.
December 21
Idaho Potato Bowl
Kent State (7-6) vs Wyoming (6-6)
— Kent won six of last nine games (scored 36.7 ppg).
— Kent allowed 457+ total yards in six of last eight games.
— Flashes are 7-1 when they run for 200+ yards, 0-5 if they don’t.
— Kent allowed 457+ TY in six of last eight games.
— Flashes have 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Kent has 67 returning starts on offensive line.
— Kent’s senior QB has 29 career starts.
— Kent is 1-5 ATS as an underdog this season.
— Flashes are 4-3 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Over is 5-3 in last eight Kent State games.
— Kent State is 2-1 all-time in bowls; this is their 2nd in three years,
— Wyoming lost six of its last eight games, after a 4-0 start.
— Wyoming is 5-0 when it scores 24+ points, 1-6 when it doesn’t.
— Cowboys scored 13 ppg in their six losses.
— Cowboys have 10 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
— Wyoming has 144 returning starts on offensive line.
— Cowboys have a soph QB with 24 starts.
— Five of Wyoming’s six losses are by 10+ points.
— Mountain West non-conference faves are 8-12-1 ATS this year.
— Wyoming won last two bowls, scoring 37-38 points.
— Cowboys won this bowl in 2017, 37-14 over Central Michigan.
— Over is 4-1 in last five Wyoming games.
— Favorites covered three of last four Potato Bowls.
— Mountain West teams are 5-3 ATS in their last eight Potato Bowls.
— Last four years, Mountain West teams are 7-6 vs MAC squads.
— MAC underdogs are 5-4-1 ATS last 10 tries vs MW teams.
Frisco Bowl (Frisco, TX)
San Diego State (11-2) vs Tex-San Antonio (12-1)
— San Diego State won four of last five games.
— Aztecs lost Mountain West title game 46-13 to Utah State Dec 4th.
— Aztecs are 10-0 when they give up less than 30 points.
— San Diego State has 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Aztecs have 65 returning starts on offensive line.
— San Diego State has a junior QB with 17 starts.
— Aztecs are 4-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
— Under is 6-3 in Aztecs’ last nine games.
— Mountain West non-league underdogs are 12-7 ATS this year.
— Aztecs are 3-2 in last five bowls; they lost 27-0 in this bowl in 2018.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine San Diego State games.
— Roadrunners scored 34+ points in six of their last eight games.
— UTSA’s only loss was 45-23 at North Texas November 27th.
— Roadrunners are 5-0 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— UTSA allowed 456+ total yards in their last three games.
— UTSA has 10 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
— Roadrunners have 122 returning starts on offensive line.
— UTSA has junior QB with 28 career starts.
— Roadrunners are 5-2 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— C-USA non-league favorites are 4-4 ATS this season.
— Roadrunners are 0-2 in bowls, losing 23-20/31-24.
— Over is 5-1 in UTSA’s last six games.
— Favorites are 4-2 ATS in this bowl.
— Winning side scored 45+ points in five of six Frisco Bowls.
— Mountain West teams are 7-4 SU last 11 games vs C-USA.
— MW underdogs covered four of last five vs C-USA teams.
December 22
Armed Forces Bowl
Missouri (6-6) vs Army (8-4)
— Mizzou is 5-0 if it allows 28 or less points, 1-6 if they five up 34+..
— Mizzou allowed 450+ TY in seven of 12 games.
— Tigers’ last four losses were all by 17+ points.
— Mizzou is 1-4 away from home; only win was at Vanderbilt.
— Mizzou has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Tigers have 88 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Mizzou’s QB has 21 career starts.
— Tigers are 5-9 ATS last 14 games as underdogs.
— Mizzou won three of their last four bowls.
— Tigers’ bowl game LY was cancelled; their last bowl was 2018.
— Under is 4-2 in Missouri’s last six games.
— SEC non-conference underdogs are 4-5 ATS this season.
— Army won three of last four D-I games.
— Cadets are 3-3 SU away from home.
— Army ran for 250+ yards in six of 11 I-A games.
— Army was upset 17-13 by arch-rival Navy December 11th.
— Cadets have 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Army has only 25 returning starts on offensive line.
— Cadets use 2-3 different QB’s.
— Army is 1-5 ATS as a favorite this season.
— Army won last three trips to this bowl, scoring 16-42-70 points.
— Cadets won four of last five bowls overall.
— Six of last seven Army games stayed under the total.
— Last nine years, service academy teams are 3-3 in this bowl.
NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Bowl Season
December 20
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Old Dominion (6-6)vs Tulsa (6-6)
— Old Dominion won its last five games to get to 6-6
— Old Dominion sat out LY; they were 1-11 in 2019.
— Monarchs’ new coach was an OC at Penn State.
— ODU scored 39.3 ppg in its last four games.
— Monarchs are 5-3-1 ATS as an underdog this year.
— ODU has 7 starters back on offense, 3 on defense.
— Monarchs have 52 returning starts on OL, very little depth.
— ODU has QB who started 3 games at Central Florida.
— Monarchs are 6-3 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog.
— ODU won its one bowl, 24-20 (-5.5) over EMU in 2019.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— Tulsa is 5-2 last seven games, after a 1-4 start.
— Tulsa is 5-0 scoring 32+ points, 1-6 scoring 23 or less.
— Last six games, Golden Hurricane was minus-7 in turnovers.
— Golden Hurricane has 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Tulsa has 120 returning starts on offensive line.
— Tulsa’s soph QB has started 12 games.
— Tulsa is 10-7-1 ATS last 18 games as a favorite.
— Tulsa is 16-11 ATS last 27 non-league games.
— Tulsa split last four bowls; average total, 68.3.
— Over is 8-3 in Tulsa’s games this season.
— Favorite won/covered the first Myrtle Beach Bowl LY
— AAC favorites are 11-4 ATS last 15 games vs C-USA squads.
— Last six years, AAC teams are 26-11 SU vs C-USA teams.
December 21
Idaho Potato Bowl
Kent State (7-6) vs Wyoming (6-6)
— Kent won six of last nine games (scored 36.7 ppg).
— Kent allowed 457+ total yards in six of last eight games.
— Flashes are 7-1 when they run for 200+ yards, 0-5 if they don’t.
— Kent allowed 457+ TY in six of last eight games.
— Flashes have 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Kent has 67 returning starts on offensive line.
— Kent’s senior QB has 29 career starts.
— Kent is 1-5 ATS as an underdog this season.
— Flashes are 4-3 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Over is 5-3 in last eight Kent State games.
— Kent State is 2-1 all-time in bowls; this is their 2nd in three years,
— Wyoming lost six of its last eight games, after a 4-0 start.
— Wyoming is 5-0 when it scores 24+ points, 1-6 when it doesn’t.
— Cowboys scored 13 ppg in their six losses.
— Cowboys have 10 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
— Wyoming has 144 returning starts on offensive line.
— Cowboys have a soph QB with 24 starts.
— Five of Wyoming’s six losses are by 10+ points.
— Mountain West non-conference faves are 8-12-1 ATS this year.
— Wyoming won last two bowls, scoring 37-38 points.
— Cowboys won this bowl in 2017, 37-14 over Central Michigan.
— Over is 4-1 in last five Wyoming games.
— Favorites covered three of last four Potato Bowls.
— Mountain West teams are 5-3 ATS in their last eight Potato Bowls.
— Last four years, Mountain West teams are 7-6 vs MAC squads.
— MAC underdogs are 5-4-1 ATS last 10 tries vs MW teams.
Frisco Bowl (Frisco, TX)
San Diego State (11-2) vs Tex-San Antonio (12-1)
— San Diego State won four of last five games.
— Aztecs lost Mountain West title game 46-13 to Utah State Dec 4th.
— Aztecs are 10-0 when they give up less than 30 points.
— San Diego State has 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Aztecs have 65 returning starts on offensive line.
— San Diego State has a junior QB with 17 starts.
— Aztecs are 4-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
— Under is 6-3 in Aztecs’ last nine games.
— Mountain West non-league underdogs are 12-7 ATS this year.
— Aztecs are 3-2 in last five bowls; they lost 27-0 in this bowl in 2018.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine San Diego State games.
— Roadrunners scored 34+ points in six of their last eight games.
— UTSA’s only loss was 45-23 at North Texas November 27th.
— Roadrunners are 5-0 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— UTSA allowed 456+ total yards in their last three games.
— UTSA has 10 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
— Roadrunners have 122 returning starts on offensive line.
— UTSA has junior QB with 28 career starts.
— Roadrunners are 5-2 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— C-USA non-league favorites are 4-4 ATS this season.
— Roadrunners are 0-2 in bowls, losing 23-20/31-24.
— Over is 5-1 in UTSA’s last six games.
— Favorites are 4-2 ATS in this bowl.
— Winning side scored 45+ points in five of six Frisco Bowls.
— Mountain West teams are 7-4 SU last 11 games vs C-USA.
— MW underdogs covered four of last five vs C-USA teams.
December 22
Armed Forces Bowl
Missouri (6-6) vs Army (8-4)
— Mizzou is 5-0 if it allows 28 or less points, 1-6 if they five up 34+..
— Mizzou allowed 450+ TY in seven of 12 games.
— Tigers’ last four losses were all by 17+ points.
— Mizzou is 1-4 away from home; only win was at Vanderbilt.
— Mizzou has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Tigers have 88 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Mizzou’s QB has 21 career starts.
— Tigers are 5-9 ATS last 14 games as underdogs.
— Mizzou won three of their last four bowls.
— Tigers’ bowl game LY was cancelled; their last bowl was 2018.
— Under is 4-2 in Missouri’s last six games.
— SEC non-conference underdogs are 4-5 ATS this season.
— Army won three of last four D-I games.
— Cadets are 3-3 SU away from home.
— Army ran for 250+ yards in six of 11 I-A games.
— Army was upset 17-13 by arch-rival Navy December 11th.
— Cadets have 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Army has only 25 returning starts on offensive line.
— Cadets use 2-3 different QB’s.
— Army is 1-5 ATS as a favorite this season.
— Army won last three trips to this bowl, scoring 16-42-70 points.
— Cadets won four of last five bowls overall.
— Six of last seven Army games stayed under the total.
— Last nine years, service academy teams are 3-3 in this bowl.
December 23
Frisco Football Classic
North Texas (6-6) vs Miami (6-6)
— North Texas won last five games, after a 1-6 start.
— Mean Green scored 36.4 ppg in last five games.
— Mean Green ran ball for 242+ yards five of last seven games.
— UNT is 6-6; they were favored in only two games this year.
— North Texas has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— North Texas has 78 returning starts on offensive line.
— Mean Green has played two QBs.
— North Texas is 5-3 ATS as an underdog this year.
— UNT lost its last four bowls, giving up 49 ppg.
— North Texas was underdog of 6+ points all four of those games.
— Over is 5-3 in last eight North Texas games.
— Redhawks won four of their last six games SU.
— Miami is 6-1 giving up 21 or less points, 0-5 giving up 23+.
— Redhawks lost last game 48-47 at Kent St, giving up 642 TY.
— Miami is 2-5 ATS as a favorite this season.
— Miami is 3-4 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Redhawks have 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Miami has 32 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Miami has been playing two QB’s.
— Last five years, Redhawks are 7-9 ATS as home favorites.
— Miami lost three of last four bowls SU.
— This is first time Miami is favored in a bowl since 2004.
— Three of last four Miami games went over the total.
— MAC teams are 2-0 vs C-USA this year, after going 1-9 in 2018-19.
— Favorites are 15-7 ATS in last 22 games between the two leagues.
Gasparilla Bowl (Tampa)
Central Florida (8-4) vs Florida (6-6)
— UCF won five of last six games, after a 3-3 start.
— Knights held five of last six opponents to 17 or less points.
— Knights gave up 34+ points in all four of their losses.
— Knights are 1-3 ATS this year in games with single digit spread.
— UCF has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— UCF has 99 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Knights have a soph QB with 35 career starts.
— In his career, Malzahn is 16-18 ATS as an underdog (0-2 TY)
— In his career, Malzahn is 2-5 SU in bowl games.
— UCF split its last four bowls (average total, 69.5)
— Knights (-15) won this bowl 48-25 over Marshall in 2019.
— Over is 6-4 in last ten UCF games.
— Florida fired its coach last month; they’ll have interim coach here.
— Gators hired a new coach, Billy Napier from Louisiana.
— Gators lost four of last five I-A games, giving up 33.6 ppg.
— Florida is 1-6 ATS in its last seven I-A games.
— Florida is 2-7 ATS as a favorite this season.
— Gators beat a I-AA team 70-52 in November.
— Florida has 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
— Gators have 54 returning starts on offensive line.
— Florida has been playing two QB’s.
— Florida won three of last four bowls.
— Gators lost their bowl game 55-20 LY.
— Under is 7-3 in Gators’ last ten games.
— This game was an early sellout.
— Favorites are 4-1 ATS in last five Gasparilla Bowls.
— Last nine years, AAC teams are 4-3 ATS un this bowl.
— SEC teams won nine of last 11 games SU vs AAC squads.
— SEC teams are 10-4-1 ATS last 15 games vs AAC teams.
December 24
Hawai’i Bowl
Memphis (6-6) @ Hawai’i (6-7)
— Memphis lost six of last nine games, after a 3-0 start.
— Tigers have four losses by 6 or fewer points.
— Memphis is 1-5 giving up 30+ points, 5-1 allowing less than 30
— Last two years, Tigers are 2-9 ATS as a favorite.
— Last five years, Tigers are 8-7 as road favorites (0-2 TY)
— Tigers have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Memphis has 104 returning starts on offensive line.
— Memphis has a freshman QB with 12 starts.
— Memphis lost four of last five bowls (won 25-10 LY)
— Average total in their last five bowls: 64.3.
— Under is 4-1-1 in last four Memphis games.
— Hawai’i won last two games, scoring 50-38 points.
— Rainbows gave up 465+ TY in six of last eight games.
— Hawai’i is 1-6 scoring less than 38 points.
— Rainbows are 7-1-1 ATS last nine games as a home dog.
— Hawai’i has three wins where they gave up 34+ points.
— Rainbows have 7 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
— Hawai’i has 111 returning starts on offensive line.
— Hawai’i has a soph QB with 26 starts.
— Last four years, Hawai’i is 2-1 SU in this bowl.
— Rainbows won three of their last four bowls.
— Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
— Underdog won last four Hawai’i Bowls SU
— Memphis opened -4, has been bet up to -7.
— Mountain West teams are 11-7 SU last 11 games vs AAC.
— MW underdogs covered four of last five vs C-USA teams.
December 25
Camellia Bowl (Montgomery, AL)
Georgia State (7-5) vs Ball State (6-6)
— Georgia State six of last seven games, after 1-7 start.
— Panthers ran ball for 200+ yards eight of last ten games.
— State gave up 34+ points in four of its five losses.
— Panthers are 6-1 giving up less than 34 points.
— GSU has 11 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— Eagles have 137 returning starts on offensive line.
— Georgia State has played two QB’s this season.
— Last four years, Panthers are 8-6 ATS as favorites.
— Panthers are 3-1 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Georgia State split four bowls, all since 2015.
— Under is 5-1 in last six Georgia State games.
— Ball State won its bowl 34-13 LY, first bowl win in eight tries.
— Ball is 4-0 giving up 21 or less points, 2-8 giving up 22+ points.
— Last eight games, Cardinals are +14 in turnovers.
— Cardinals allowed 458+ TY in three of last four games.
— Ball State is 2-4 ATS this year in games with single digit spread.
— Cardinals have 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Ball has 97 returning starts on offensive line.
— Ball’s senior QB has 38 career starts.
— Cardinals are 3-5 ATS last eight games as an underdog.
— Cardinals are 1-3 ATS last four games as a bowl underdog.
— Under is 7-2 in last nine Ball State games.
— Underdogs are 4-3 ATS in Camellia Bowls.
— Sun Belt teams are 4-2 SU/2-4 ATS in this bowl.
— MAC teams are 2-3 SU/4-1 ATS in this bowl.
— Sun Belt teams are 17-11 SU in last 29 games vs MAC teams.
— MAC teams are 10-4 ATS as an underdog against Sun Belt squads.
Monday, Dec. 27
Quick Lane Bowl
Nevada (8-4) vs Western Michigan (7-5) (@ Detroit)
— Nevada’s coach bolted to Colorado State
— Nevada’s QB is skipping this game; his college career is over.
— Nevada’s backup QB (now starter) threw 20 passes this year.
— Nevada lost 2 of last 3 games, after a 7-2 start.
— Wolf Pack gave up 696 YR in their last two games.
— Wolf Pack is 6-0-1 ATS last seven games as an underdog.
— Nevada is 5-1-1 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Nevada has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Wolf Pack has 63 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Wolf Pack won three of its last four bowl games.
— Over is 7-3 in last ten Nevada games.
— WMU is 3-4 in last seven games, after a 4-1 start.
— Broncos are 7-1 scoring 23+ points, 0-4 if they score less.
— Last seven games, WMU is minus-9 in turnovers.
— Broncos have 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— WMU has 75 returning starts on offensive line.
— WMU’s soph QB has 22 career starts.
— WMU is 4-5-1 ATS TY as a favorite.
— Broncos are 3-3-1 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— WMU lost its last three bowls, scoring 18 ppg.
— Five of last seven WMU games went over the total.
— MAC favorites are 3-5 ATS in non-conference games.
— Underdog is 6-2 ATS in last eight Quick Lane Bowls.
— MAC teams lost last four appearances in this game.
— Average total in this game last five years: 56.
— Domed stadium; weather isn’t a factor.
— Last four years, Mountain West teams are 7-6 vs MAC squads.
— MAC underdogs are 5-4-1 ATS last 10 tries vs MW teams.
Military Bowl (Annapolis)
East Carolina (7-5) vs Boston College (6-6)
— East Carolina won four of its last five games.
— ECU scored 29+ in its wins, 24 or less in its losses.
— Pirates are 4-2 in games decided by 4 or fewer points.
— ECU is 3-2-1 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Under coach Houston, Pirates are 14-9 ATS as an underdog.
— Last seven games, Pirates are minus-5 in turnovers.
— East Carolina has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Pirates have 69 returning starts on the offensive line.
— East Carolina’s junior QB has started 37 games.
— This is ECU’s first bowl since 2014.
— Pirates lost four of last five bowls; last bowl win, 2013.
— Favorites covered their last four bowls.
— Under is 5-1-1 in last seven East Carolina games.
— Boston College lost six of last eight games, after a 4-0 start.
— BC scored 14 or less points in five of those eight games.
— Eagles are 5-0 scoring 28+ points, 1-6 scoring less than 28.
— BC gave up 32.3 ppg in its last three games.
— BC is 3-5 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Eagles are 5-4 ATS last nine games as a favorite.
— BC has 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— BC has 125 returning starts on offensive line.
— Eagles’ junior QB has started 16 games.
— BC lost three of last four bowls; their last bowl win, 2016.
— Seven of Eagles’ last eight games stayed under the total.
— Favorites are 5-3 ATS in last eight Military Bowls.
— Average total in last four Military Bowls: 57.5.
— ACC teams are 17-10 SU last 27 games vs AAC squads.
— ACC favorites covered four of last five games vs AAC teams.
Frisco Football Classic
North Texas (6-6) vs Miami (6-6)
— North Texas won last five games, after a 1-6 start.
— Mean Green scored 36.4 ppg in last five games.
— Mean Green ran ball for 242+ yards five of last seven games.
— UNT is 6-6; they were favored in only two games this year.
— North Texas has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— North Texas has 78 returning starts on offensive line.
— Mean Green has played two QBs.
— North Texas is 5-3 ATS as an underdog this year.
— UNT lost its last four bowls, giving up 49 ppg.
— North Texas was underdog of 6+ points all four of those games.
— Over is 5-3 in last eight North Texas games.
— Redhawks won four of their last six games SU.
— Miami is 6-1 giving up 21 or less points, 0-5 giving up 23+.
— Redhawks lost last game 48-47 at Kent St, giving up 642 TY.
— Miami is 2-5 ATS as a favorite this season.
— Miami is 3-4 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Redhawks have 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Miami has 32 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Miami has been playing two QB’s.
— Last five years, Redhawks are 7-9 ATS as home favorites.
— Miami lost three of last four bowls SU.
— This is first time Miami is favored in a bowl since 2004.
— Three of last four Miami games went over the total.
— MAC teams are 2-0 vs C-USA this year, after going 1-9 in 2018-19.
— Favorites are 15-7 ATS in last 22 games between the two leagues.
Gasparilla Bowl (Tampa)
Central Florida (8-4) vs Florida (6-6)
— UCF won five of last six games, after a 3-3 start.
— Knights held five of last six opponents to 17 or less points.
— Knights gave up 34+ points in all four of their losses.
— Knights are 1-3 ATS this year in games with single digit spread.
— UCF has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— UCF has 99 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Knights have a soph QB with 35 career starts.
— In his career, Malzahn is 16-18 ATS as an underdog (0-2 TY)
— In his career, Malzahn is 2-5 SU in bowl games.
— UCF split its last four bowls (average total, 69.5)
— Knights (-15) won this bowl 48-25 over Marshall in 2019.
— Over is 6-4 in last ten UCF games.
— Florida fired its coach last month; they’ll have interim coach here.
— Gators hired a new coach, Billy Napier from Louisiana.
— Gators lost four of last five I-A games, giving up 33.6 ppg.
— Florida is 1-6 ATS in its last seven I-A games.
— Florida is 2-7 ATS as a favorite this season.
— Gators beat a I-AA team 70-52 in November.
— Florida has 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
— Gators have 54 returning starts on offensive line.
— Florida has been playing two QB’s.
— Florida won three of last four bowls.
— Gators lost their bowl game 55-20 LY.
— Under is 7-3 in Gators’ last ten games.
— This game was an early sellout.
— Favorites are 4-1 ATS in last five Gasparilla Bowls.
— Last nine years, AAC teams are 4-3 ATS un this bowl.
— SEC teams won nine of last 11 games SU vs AAC squads.
— SEC teams are 10-4-1 ATS last 15 games vs AAC teams.
December 24
Hawai’i Bowl
Memphis (6-6) @ Hawai’i (6-7)
— Memphis lost six of last nine games, after a 3-0 start.
— Tigers have four losses by 6 or fewer points.
— Memphis is 1-5 giving up 30+ points, 5-1 allowing less than 30
— Last two years, Tigers are 2-9 ATS as a favorite.
— Last five years, Tigers are 8-7 as road favorites (0-2 TY)
— Tigers have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Memphis has 104 returning starts on offensive line.
— Memphis has a freshman QB with 12 starts.
— Memphis lost four of last five bowls (won 25-10 LY)
— Average total in their last five bowls: 64.3.
— Under is 4-1-1 in last four Memphis games.
— Hawai’i won last two games, scoring 50-38 points.
— Rainbows gave up 465+ TY in six of last eight games.
— Hawai’i is 1-6 scoring less than 38 points.
— Rainbows are 7-1-1 ATS last nine games as a home dog.
— Hawai’i has three wins where they gave up 34+ points.
— Rainbows have 7 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
— Hawai’i has 111 returning starts on offensive line.
— Hawai’i has a soph QB with 26 starts.
— Last four years, Hawai’i is 2-1 SU in this bowl.
— Rainbows won three of their last four bowls.
— Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
— Underdog won last four Hawai’i Bowls SU
— Memphis opened -4, has been bet up to -7.
— Mountain West teams are 11-7 SU last 11 games vs AAC.
— MW underdogs covered four of last five vs C-USA teams.
December 25
Camellia Bowl (Montgomery, AL)
Georgia State (7-5) vs Ball State (6-6)
— Georgia State six of last seven games, after 1-7 start.
— Panthers ran ball for 200+ yards eight of last ten games.
— State gave up 34+ points in four of its five losses.
— Panthers are 6-1 giving up less than 34 points.
— GSU has 11 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— Eagles have 137 returning starts on offensive line.
— Georgia State has played two QB’s this season.
— Last four years, Panthers are 8-6 ATS as favorites.
— Panthers are 3-1 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Georgia State split four bowls, all since 2015.
— Under is 5-1 in last six Georgia State games.
— Ball State won its bowl 34-13 LY, first bowl win in eight tries.
— Ball is 4-0 giving up 21 or less points, 2-8 giving up 22+ points.
— Last eight games, Cardinals are +14 in turnovers.
— Cardinals allowed 458+ TY in three of last four games.
— Ball State is 2-4 ATS this year in games with single digit spread.
— Cardinals have 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Ball has 97 returning starts on offensive line.
— Ball’s senior QB has 38 career starts.
— Cardinals are 3-5 ATS last eight games as an underdog.
— Cardinals are 1-3 ATS last four games as a bowl underdog.
— Under is 7-2 in last nine Ball State games.
— Underdogs are 4-3 ATS in Camellia Bowls.
— Sun Belt teams are 4-2 SU/2-4 ATS in this bowl.
— MAC teams are 2-3 SU/4-1 ATS in this bowl.
— Sun Belt teams are 17-11 SU in last 29 games vs MAC teams.
— MAC teams are 10-4 ATS as an underdog against Sun Belt squads.
Monday, Dec. 27
Quick Lane Bowl
Nevada (8-4) vs Western Michigan (7-5) (@ Detroit)
— Nevada’s coach bolted to Colorado State
— Nevada’s QB is skipping this game; his college career is over.
— Nevada’s backup QB (now starter) threw 20 passes this year.
— Nevada lost 2 of last 3 games, after a 7-2 start.
— Wolf Pack gave up 696 YR in their last two games.
— Wolf Pack is 6-0-1 ATS last seven games as an underdog.
— Nevada is 5-1-1 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Nevada has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Wolf Pack has 63 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Wolf Pack won three of its last four bowl games.
— Over is 7-3 in last ten Nevada games.
— WMU is 3-4 in last seven games, after a 4-1 start.
— Broncos are 7-1 scoring 23+ points, 0-4 if they score less.
— Last seven games, WMU is minus-9 in turnovers.
— Broncos have 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— WMU has 75 returning starts on offensive line.
— WMU’s soph QB has 22 career starts.
— WMU is 4-5-1 ATS TY as a favorite.
— Broncos are 3-3-1 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— WMU lost its last three bowls, scoring 18 ppg.
— Five of last seven WMU games went over the total.
— MAC favorites are 3-5 ATS in non-conference games.
— Underdog is 6-2 ATS in last eight Quick Lane Bowls.
— MAC teams lost last four appearances in this game.
— Average total in this game last five years: 56.
— Domed stadium; weather isn’t a factor.
— Last four years, Mountain West teams are 7-6 vs MAC squads.
— MAC underdogs are 5-4-1 ATS last 10 tries vs MW teams.
Military Bowl (Annapolis)
East Carolina (7-5) vs Boston College (6-6)
— East Carolina won four of its last five games.
— ECU scored 29+ in its wins, 24 or less in its losses.
— Pirates are 4-2 in games decided by 4 or fewer points.
— ECU is 3-2-1 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Under coach Houston, Pirates are 14-9 ATS as an underdog.
— Last seven games, Pirates are minus-5 in turnovers.
— East Carolina has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Pirates have 69 returning starts on the offensive line.
— East Carolina’s junior QB has started 37 games.
— This is ECU’s first bowl since 2014.
— Pirates lost four of last five bowls; last bowl win, 2013.
— Favorites covered their last four bowls.
— Under is 5-1-1 in last seven East Carolina games.
— Boston College lost six of last eight games, after a 4-0 start.
— BC scored 14 or less points in five of those eight games.
— Eagles are 5-0 scoring 28+ points, 1-6 scoring less than 28.
— BC gave up 32.3 ppg in its last three games.
— BC is 3-5 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Eagles are 5-4 ATS last nine games as a favorite.
— BC has 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— BC has 125 returning starts on offensive line.
— Eagles’ junior QB has started 16 games.
— BC lost three of last four bowls; their last bowl win, 2016.
— Seven of Eagles’ last eight games stayed under the total.
— Favorites are 5-3 ATS in last eight Military Bowls.
— Average total in last four Military Bowls: 57.5.
— ACC teams are 17-10 SU last 27 games vs AAC squads.
— ACC favorites covered four of last five games vs AAC teams.
Tuesday, Dec. 28
Birmingham Bowl
Houston (11-2) vs Auburn (6-6)
— Houston lost first/last game, won 11 in row in between.
— Cougars scored 28+ points in their wins, 20-21 in losses.
— Houston is +14 in turnovers in wins, minus-4 in losses.
— Cougars have 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Houston has 103 returning starts on offensive line.
— Houston’s junior QB has started 29 games.
— Houston has seven wins by 18+ points.
— Cougars played only three games decided by less than 12 points.
— Houston is 1-4 ATS last five games as an underdog.
— Cougars are 5-1 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Houston lost three of its last four bowls (favored in 3 of 4)
— Over is 8-3 in Houston games this season.
— Auburn QB Nix broke his ankle, now he is transferring.
— Auburn is playing freshman QB (5 starts @ LSU LY)
— Auburn lost last four games, outscored 108-66.
— Auburn is 6-2 if it scores more than 20 points.
— Last seven games, Tigers are minus-4 in turnovers.
— Auburn is 3-4 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Tigers gave up 430+ yards in four of last six games.
— Tigers have 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Auburn has 89 returning starts on offensive line.
— Auburn is 11-7 ATS last 18 games as favorites.
— Auburn lost four of its last five bowl games (1-4 ATS).
— Under is 6-2 in last eight games.
— Favorites are 6-2 ATS in this bowl last nine years.
— SEC teams covered four of last five visits to this bowl.
— SEC teams won nine of last 11 games SU vs AAC squads.
— SEC teams are 10-4-1 ATS last 15 games vs AAC teams.
First Responder Bowl (Dallas)
Air Force (9-3) vs Louisville (6-6)
— Air Force won last three games, scoring 41.3 ppg.
— Falcons ran for 458.7 yards/game in those three games.
— Air Force is 5-3-1 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Falcons completed one pass in winning last two games.
— Air Force’s losses this season were by 4-6-7 points.
— Falcons have 4 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Air Force has only 3 returning starts on offensive line.
— Falcons have junior QB this year, with 20 starts.
— Air Force won three of last four bowls, scoring 37.5 ppg.
— Falcons’ last five bowls were all decided by 10+ points.
— Last three Air Force games went over the total.
— Louisville is 4-5 SU in its last nine games.
— Cardinals are 5-0 giving up 23 or less points, 1-6 otherwise.
— Louisville ran ball for 213+ yards in six of last eight games.
— Last two games, Louisville gave up 517-511 TY.
— Louisville is 0-3 in games decided by 6 or less points.
— Louisville has 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Cardinals have 95 returning starts on offensive line.
— Cardinals’ junior QB has started 40 games.
— Under Satterfield, Louisville is 10-5 ATS as a favorite.
— Cardinals are 5-5 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Over is 3-1 in last six Louisville games.
— Underdogs covered this bowl three of last four years.
— Last eight years, Mountain West teams are 6-4 SU/5-5 ATS vs ACC squads.
— Underdogs are 6-2 ATS in last eight games between the two leagues.
Liberty Bowl (Memphis)
Texas Tech (6-6) vs Mississippi State (7-5)
Texas Tech fired Mike Leach after the 2009 season; there is an ongoing dispute about the $2.5M that Leach believes Tech still owes him.
— Texas Tech fired its coach after a 6-6 regular season.
— Tech lost four of its last five games.
— Red Raiders are 4-0 when they score 38+ points, 2-6 when they don’t.
— Red Raiders have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Tech has 84 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Tech’s soph QB has 19 starts (7 at Oregon).
— Red Raiders are 29-23 ATS last 52 games as underdogs.
— This is Tech’s first bowl since 2017.
— Tech lost its last two bowls, giving up 56-38 points.
— Red Raiders’ last bowl win: 2013, as a 14-point dog.
— Under is 4-2 in Texas Tech’s last six games.
— Three of Miss State’s five losses were by 2 or 3 points.
— Miss State is 2-5 when it gives up 28+ points, 4-0 when it allows less.
— Bulldogs threw for 336+ yards in seven of last eight games.
— Under Leach, Miss State is 2-5 ATS as a favorite.
— In his career Leach is 8-8 SU in bowl games.
— Bulldogs have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— MSU has 37 returning starts on offensive line.
— Bulldogs have a freshman QB this year, with 19 starts.
— Miss State won three of its last five bowls.
— Underdogs covered all five of those games
— Three of last four Miss State games went over the total.
— Underdogs are 5-2 ATS in last seven Liberty Bowls.
— Last four Liberty Bowls were decided by 5 or less points.
— Last six years, Big X underdogs are 9-6 ATS vs SEC teams.
Holiday Bowl (San Diego)
NC State (9-3) vs UCLA (8-4)
— NC State won four of its last five games.
— Wolfpack’s last two losses were by 1-3 points.
— State threw for 300+ yards in four of last five games.
— Wolfpack allowed 400+ TY in four of last six games.
— State is 3-4 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Wolfpack has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— NC State has 73 returning starts on offensive line.
— Wolfpack has a soph QB this year, with 20 starts.
— NC State is 4-9-1 ATS last 14 games as underdogs.
— Wolfpack lost last two bowls, 52-13/23-21.
— State’s last bowl win: 2017 Sun Bowl.
— Over is 7-3 in last ten Wolfpack games.
— UCLA won last three games, scoring 49.3 ppg.
— UCLA is 8-0 giving up less than 34 points.
— Bruins gave up 40-42-34-44 points in their losses.
— Bruins are 5-3 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— UCLA has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Bruins have 73 returning starts on the offensive line.
— UCLA’s junior QB is making his 34th career start.
— In his career, Kelly is 2-2 SU in bowls.
— This is UCLA’s first bowl since 2017.
— Bruins lost last two bowls, 37-29/35-17.
— UCLA’s last bowl win: 2014 Alamo Bowl.
— Four of last five UCLA games went over the total.
— Pac-12 teams lost five in row, eight of last nine Holiday Bowls.
— Underdogs covered six of last eight Holiday Bowls.
— ACC teams are 9-4-1 ATS last 14 games vs Pac-12 squads.
Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Phoenix)
West Virginia (6-6) vs Minnesota (8-4)
— West Virginia won four of its last six games.
— WVU is 6-0 if it scores 27+ points, 0-6 if it does not.
— WVU was held under 100 YR in all six of their losses.
— Mountaineers are 2-3 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
— WVU is minus-6 in turnovers this season.
— Mountaineers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— WVU has 54 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Mountaineers have junior QB with 44 career starts.
— Under Brown, West Virginia is 9-11 ATS as an underdog.
— WVU lost three of its last four bowl games.
— Under is 7-4 in West Virginia games this season.
— Minnesota won/covered six of its last eight games.
— Gophers’ last four wins were all by 10+ points.
— Minnesota is 7-1 when it scores 23+ points, 1-3 when it doesn’t.
— Gophers held last six opponents under 280 TY.
— Minnesota is 3-2 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Minnesota has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Gophers have 182 (yes, 182) returning starts on offensive line.
— Gophers have a junior QB with 38 starts.
— Minnesota won its last four bowl games.
— Gophers won SU as underdogs in last three bowls.
— Under is 6-4 in last ten Minnesota games.
— Underdogs are 5-3 ATS in this bowl last eight years.
— Big X teams won their last six appearances in this game.
— Big 14 teams are 8-5 ATS in last 13 games against the Big X.
Birmingham Bowl
Houston (11-2) vs Auburn (6-6)
— Houston lost first/last game, won 11 in row in between.
— Cougars scored 28+ points in their wins, 20-21 in losses.
— Houston is +14 in turnovers in wins, minus-4 in losses.
— Cougars have 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Houston has 103 returning starts on offensive line.
— Houston’s junior QB has started 29 games.
— Houston has seven wins by 18+ points.
— Cougars played only three games decided by less than 12 points.
— Houston is 1-4 ATS last five games as an underdog.
— Cougars are 5-1 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Houston lost three of its last four bowls (favored in 3 of 4)
— Over is 8-3 in Houston games this season.
— Auburn QB Nix broke his ankle, now he is transferring.
— Auburn is playing freshman QB (5 starts @ LSU LY)
— Auburn lost last four games, outscored 108-66.
— Auburn is 6-2 if it scores more than 20 points.
— Last seven games, Tigers are minus-4 in turnovers.
— Auburn is 3-4 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Tigers gave up 430+ yards in four of last six games.
— Tigers have 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Auburn has 89 returning starts on offensive line.
— Auburn is 11-7 ATS last 18 games as favorites.
— Auburn lost four of its last five bowl games (1-4 ATS).
— Under is 6-2 in last eight games.
— Favorites are 6-2 ATS in this bowl last nine years.
— SEC teams covered four of last five visits to this bowl.
— SEC teams won nine of last 11 games SU vs AAC squads.
— SEC teams are 10-4-1 ATS last 15 games vs AAC teams.
First Responder Bowl (Dallas)
Air Force (9-3) vs Louisville (6-6)
— Air Force won last three games, scoring 41.3 ppg.
— Falcons ran for 458.7 yards/game in those three games.
— Air Force is 5-3-1 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Falcons completed one pass in winning last two games.
— Air Force’s losses this season were by 4-6-7 points.
— Falcons have 4 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Air Force has only 3 returning starts on offensive line.
— Falcons have junior QB this year, with 20 starts.
— Air Force won three of last four bowls, scoring 37.5 ppg.
— Falcons’ last five bowls were all decided by 10+ points.
— Last three Air Force games went over the total.
— Louisville is 4-5 SU in its last nine games.
— Cardinals are 5-0 giving up 23 or less points, 1-6 otherwise.
— Louisville ran ball for 213+ yards in six of last eight games.
— Last two games, Louisville gave up 517-511 TY.
— Louisville is 0-3 in games decided by 6 or less points.
— Louisville has 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Cardinals have 95 returning starts on offensive line.
— Cardinals’ junior QB has started 40 games.
— Under Satterfield, Louisville is 10-5 ATS as a favorite.
— Cardinals are 5-5 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Over is 3-1 in last six Louisville games.
— Underdogs covered this bowl three of last four years.
— Last eight years, Mountain West teams are 6-4 SU/5-5 ATS vs ACC squads.
— Underdogs are 6-2 ATS in last eight games between the two leagues.
Liberty Bowl (Memphis)
Texas Tech (6-6) vs Mississippi State (7-5)
Texas Tech fired Mike Leach after the 2009 season; there is an ongoing dispute about the $2.5M that Leach believes Tech still owes him.
— Texas Tech fired its coach after a 6-6 regular season.
— Tech lost four of its last five games.
— Red Raiders are 4-0 when they score 38+ points, 2-6 when they don’t.
— Red Raiders have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Tech has 84 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Tech’s soph QB has 19 starts (7 at Oregon).
— Red Raiders are 29-23 ATS last 52 games as underdogs.
— This is Tech’s first bowl since 2017.
— Tech lost its last two bowls, giving up 56-38 points.
— Red Raiders’ last bowl win: 2013, as a 14-point dog.
— Under is 4-2 in Texas Tech’s last six games.
— Three of Miss State’s five losses were by 2 or 3 points.
— Miss State is 2-5 when it gives up 28+ points, 4-0 when it allows less.
— Bulldogs threw for 336+ yards in seven of last eight games.
— Under Leach, Miss State is 2-5 ATS as a favorite.
— In his career Leach is 8-8 SU in bowl games.
— Bulldogs have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— MSU has 37 returning starts on offensive line.
— Bulldogs have a freshman QB this year, with 19 starts.
— Miss State won three of its last five bowls.
— Underdogs covered all five of those games
— Three of last four Miss State games went over the total.
— Underdogs are 5-2 ATS in last seven Liberty Bowls.
— Last four Liberty Bowls were decided by 5 or less points.
— Last six years, Big X underdogs are 9-6 ATS vs SEC teams.
Holiday Bowl (San Diego)
NC State (9-3) vs UCLA (8-4)
— NC State won four of its last five games.
— Wolfpack’s last two losses were by 1-3 points.
— State threw for 300+ yards in four of last five games.
— Wolfpack allowed 400+ TY in four of last six games.
— State is 3-4 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Wolfpack has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— NC State has 73 returning starts on offensive line.
— Wolfpack has a soph QB this year, with 20 starts.
— NC State is 4-9-1 ATS last 14 games as underdogs.
— Wolfpack lost last two bowls, 52-13/23-21.
— State’s last bowl win: 2017 Sun Bowl.
— Over is 7-3 in last ten Wolfpack games.
— UCLA won last three games, scoring 49.3 ppg.
— UCLA is 8-0 giving up less than 34 points.
— Bruins gave up 40-42-34-44 points in their losses.
— Bruins are 5-3 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— UCLA has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Bruins have 73 returning starts on the offensive line.
— UCLA’s junior QB is making his 34th career start.
— In his career, Kelly is 2-2 SU in bowls.
— This is UCLA’s first bowl since 2017.
— Bruins lost last two bowls, 37-29/35-17.
— UCLA’s last bowl win: 2014 Alamo Bowl.
— Four of last five UCLA games went over the total.
— Pac-12 teams lost five in row, eight of last nine Holiday Bowls.
— Underdogs covered six of last eight Holiday Bowls.
— ACC teams are 9-4-1 ATS last 14 games vs Pac-12 squads.
Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Phoenix)
West Virginia (6-6) vs Minnesota (8-4)
— West Virginia won four of its last six games.
— WVU is 6-0 if it scores 27+ points, 0-6 if it does not.
— WVU was held under 100 YR in all six of their losses.
— Mountaineers are 2-3 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
— WVU is minus-6 in turnovers this season.
— Mountaineers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— WVU has 54 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Mountaineers have junior QB with 44 career starts.
— Under Brown, West Virginia is 9-11 ATS as an underdog.
— WVU lost three of its last four bowl games.
— Under is 7-4 in West Virginia games this season.
— Minnesota won/covered six of its last eight games.
— Gophers’ last four wins were all by 10+ points.
— Minnesota is 7-1 when it scores 23+ points, 1-3 when it doesn’t.
— Gophers held last six opponents under 280 TY.
— Minnesota is 3-2 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Minnesota has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Gophers have 182 (yes, 182) returning starts on offensive line.
— Gophers have a junior QB with 38 starts.
— Minnesota won its last four bowl games.
— Gophers won SU as underdogs in last three bowls.
— Under is 6-4 in last ten Minnesota games.
— Underdogs are 5-3 ATS in this bowl last eight years.
— Big X teams won their last six appearances in this game.
— Big 14 teams are 8-5 ATS in last 13 games against the Big X.
December 29
Fenway Bowl
SMU (8-4) vs Virginia (6-5)
— SMU’s coach bolted to TCU last month.
— Mustangs lost four of last five games, after a 7-0 start.
— SMU gave up 36.4 ppg in last five games.
— SMU has scored 31+ points in 10 of 12 games this season.
— Mustangs are 16-14-1 ATS last 31 games as an underdog.
— SMU is 2-3 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— SMU has 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Mustangs have 141 returning starts on offensive line.
— SMU has a soph QB this year; he was a backup at Oklahoma.
— Mustangs lost last two bowls, giving up 51-52 points.
— SMU’s last bowl win: 2012 Hawai’i Bowl.
— Four of their last six games went over.
— Virginia’s coach stepped down December 2nd.
— Virginia lost last four games, giving up 42.8 ppg.
— Virginia scored 30+ points in six of last eight games.
— Cavaliers gave up 200+ RY in seven of last ten games.
— Cavaliers are 8-4 ATS in last 12 games as favorites.
— Virginia is 2-5 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Last five games, Virginia gave up 540 yards/game.
— Virginia has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Cavaliers have 122 returning starts on offensive line.
— Virginia has a soph QB with 23 starts.
— Cavaliers lost four of its last five bowls.
— Virginia’s one bowl win since ’07: 2018 Belk Bowl.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine Virginia games.
— This is the first-ever Fenway Bowl; weather could be a factor.
— ACC teams are 17-10 SU last 27 games vs AAC squads.
— ACC favorites covered four of last five games vs AAC teams.
Pinstripe Bowl (Bronx)
Maryland (6-6) vs Virginia Tech (6-6)
— Locksley’s 7th season as HC, his first bowl (14-49 record SU)
— Maryland lost six of last eight games, after a 4-0 start.
— Last eight games, Terps gave up 41.5 ppg.
— Maryland allowed 428+ TY in eight of last nine games.
— Terps are 2-4 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Maryland has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Maryland has 36 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Terrapins have soph QB with 21 starts- Tua Tagovailoa’s brother
— Maryland is in its first bowl since 2016.
— Terps lost last three bowls; their last bowl win, 2010 Military Bowl.
— Six of their last eight games went over.
— Tech fired their coach after six seasons (70-55)
— Hokies lost five of their last eight games.
— Hokies are 3-6 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Hokies are 6-0 allowing 24 or less points, 0-6 otherwise.
— Hokies allowed 776 passing yards in their last two games.
— Tech ran ball for 227+ yards in five of last six games.
— Tech has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Tech has 106 returning starts on offensive line.
— Hokies’ junior QB has started 17 games.
— Tech lost its last three bowls, giving up 34 ppg.
— Hokies’ last bowl win: 2016 Belk Bowl, over Arkansas.
— Under is 7-4 in Virginia Tech games this year.
— Weather could be a factor in this game; NYC in December.
— Big 14 teams won last four Pinstripe Bowls.
— Underdogs are 7-2 ATS in Pinstripe Bowls.
— Big 14 teams are 16-7 SU last 23 games vs ACC teams.
— Big 14 teams are 14-9 ATS last 23 games vs ACC teams.
Cheez-It Bowl (Orlando)
Clemson (9-3) vs Iowa State (7-5)
— Clemson won last five games, scoring 36.4 ppg.
— Clemson scored 15.2 ppg in first six D-I games
— Clemson lost OC/DC to head coaching jobs.
— Tigers’ new OC/DC were both hired from within.
— Clemson has 5 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Tigers have 37 returning starts on offensive line.
— Clemson’s freshman QB has made 14 starts.
— Clemson is 1-4 ATS as a home favorite this season.
— Clemson is even in turnovers; last 3 years, they were +30.
— Tigers are 3-2 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Clemson split last six bowls, mostly New year’s Day games.
— Over is 3-1-1 in last five Clemson games.
— Game is in Orlando; Tigers recruit a lot in Florida.
— Iowa State’s star RB is skipping this game, turning pro
— Iowa State is 7-0 allowing 21 or less points, 0-5 allowing more.
— Cyclones gave up 33 ppg in their five losses.
— ISU was top 10 team when season started; 7-5 isn’t good.
— Cyclones lost a game 41-38 on 62-yard FG at 0:00.
— Cyclones have 11 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— ISU has 93 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Cyclones have a junior QB this year, with 44 starts.
— Iowa State beat a I-AA team 16-10.
— Iowa State is 2-5 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— ISU split their bowl games the last four seasons.
— Cyclones lost this bowl 33-9 (+3.5) to Notre Dame two years ago.
— Over is 6-3 in last nine Iowa State games.
— Favorites won/covered last five Cheez-It Bowls
— Big X teams won four of last five games vs ACC opponents.
Alamo Bowl (San Antonio)
Oklahoma (10-2) vs Oregon (10-3)
— Sooners lost two of last three games, after a 9-0 start.
— Oklahoma’s coach skipped town to USC.
— Sooners are 7-1-1 ATS in last nine games with single digit spread.
— Oklahoma is 5-6 ATS as a favorite this season.
— Sooners have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Oklahoma has 126 returning starts on offensive line.
— Sooners changed QB’s again LW; unsure who starts here.
— Last ten years, Oklahoma is 5-1 ATS as regular season road dogs.
— Sooners lost three of last four bowl games.
— Average total in Oklahoma’s last five bowls: 80.6.
— Over is 8-5 in Oklahoma games this season.
— Oregon lost two of its last three games, after a 9-1 start.
— Ducks are 9-0 when they score more than 24 points.
— Ducks were +12 in turnovers first four games, are minus-2 since.
— Oregon ran ball for 210+ yards in six of last nine games.
— Ducks are 7-5 ATS last dozen games with single digit spread.
— Ducks have 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Oregon has 36 returning starts on offensive line.
— Oregon’s QB has 40 career starts, 28 at Boston College.
— Ducks lost three of last five bowls, scoring 17.3 ppg in last three.
— Oregon lost Alamo Bowl to TCU in 2015.
— Over is 4-2 in last six Oregon games.
— Both head coaches bolted for greener pa$ture$.
— Underdog covered five of last six Alamo Bowls.
— Big X teams are 7-3 SU in last ten Alamo Bowls.
— Big X teams are 10-2 SU last dozen games vs Pac-12.
— Big X favorites are 7-4 last 11 games vs Pac-12.
Fenway Bowl
SMU (8-4) vs Virginia (6-5)
— SMU’s coach bolted to TCU last month.
— Mustangs lost four of last five games, after a 7-0 start.
— SMU gave up 36.4 ppg in last five games.
— SMU has scored 31+ points in 10 of 12 games this season.
— Mustangs are 16-14-1 ATS last 31 games as an underdog.
— SMU is 2-3 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— SMU has 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Mustangs have 141 returning starts on offensive line.
— SMU has a soph QB this year; he was a backup at Oklahoma.
— Mustangs lost last two bowls, giving up 51-52 points.
— SMU’s last bowl win: 2012 Hawai’i Bowl.
— Four of their last six games went over.
— Virginia’s coach stepped down December 2nd.
— Virginia lost last four games, giving up 42.8 ppg.
— Virginia scored 30+ points in six of last eight games.
— Cavaliers gave up 200+ RY in seven of last ten games.
— Cavaliers are 8-4 ATS in last 12 games as favorites.
— Virginia is 2-5 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Last five games, Virginia gave up 540 yards/game.
— Virginia has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Cavaliers have 122 returning starts on offensive line.
— Virginia has a soph QB with 23 starts.
— Cavaliers lost four of its last five bowls.
— Virginia’s one bowl win since ’07: 2018 Belk Bowl.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine Virginia games.
— This is the first-ever Fenway Bowl; weather could be a factor.
— ACC teams are 17-10 SU last 27 games vs AAC squads.
— ACC favorites covered four of last five games vs AAC teams.
Pinstripe Bowl (Bronx)
Maryland (6-6) vs Virginia Tech (6-6)
— Locksley’s 7th season as HC, his first bowl (14-49 record SU)
— Maryland lost six of last eight games, after a 4-0 start.
— Last eight games, Terps gave up 41.5 ppg.
— Maryland allowed 428+ TY in eight of last nine games.
— Terps are 2-4 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Maryland has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Maryland has 36 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Terrapins have soph QB with 21 starts- Tua Tagovailoa’s brother
— Maryland is in its first bowl since 2016.
— Terps lost last three bowls; their last bowl win, 2010 Military Bowl.
— Six of their last eight games went over.
— Tech fired their coach after six seasons (70-55)
— Hokies lost five of their last eight games.
— Hokies are 3-6 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Hokies are 6-0 allowing 24 or less points, 0-6 otherwise.
— Hokies allowed 776 passing yards in their last two games.
— Tech ran ball for 227+ yards in five of last six games.
— Tech has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Tech has 106 returning starts on offensive line.
— Hokies’ junior QB has started 17 games.
— Tech lost its last three bowls, giving up 34 ppg.
— Hokies’ last bowl win: 2016 Belk Bowl, over Arkansas.
— Under is 7-4 in Virginia Tech games this year.
— Weather could be a factor in this game; NYC in December.
— Big 14 teams won last four Pinstripe Bowls.
— Underdogs are 7-2 ATS in Pinstripe Bowls.
— Big 14 teams are 16-7 SU last 23 games vs ACC teams.
— Big 14 teams are 14-9 ATS last 23 games vs ACC teams.
Cheez-It Bowl (Orlando)
Clemson (9-3) vs Iowa State (7-5)
— Clemson won last five games, scoring 36.4 ppg.
— Clemson scored 15.2 ppg in first six D-I games
— Clemson lost OC/DC to head coaching jobs.
— Tigers’ new OC/DC were both hired from within.
— Clemson has 5 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Tigers have 37 returning starts on offensive line.
— Clemson’s freshman QB has made 14 starts.
— Clemson is 1-4 ATS as a home favorite this season.
— Clemson is even in turnovers; last 3 years, they were +30.
— Tigers are 3-2 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— Clemson split last six bowls, mostly New year’s Day games.
— Over is 3-1-1 in last five Clemson games.
— Game is in Orlando; Tigers recruit a lot in Florida.
— Iowa State’s star RB is skipping this game, turning pro
— Iowa State is 7-0 allowing 21 or less points, 0-5 allowing more.
— Cyclones gave up 33 ppg in their five losses.
— ISU was top 10 team when season started; 7-5 isn’t good.
— Cyclones lost a game 41-38 on 62-yard FG at 0:00.
— Cyclones have 11 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— ISU has 93 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Cyclones have a junior QB this year, with 44 starts.
— Iowa State beat a I-AA team 16-10.
— Iowa State is 2-5 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— ISU split their bowl games the last four seasons.
— Cyclones lost this bowl 33-9 (+3.5) to Notre Dame two years ago.
— Over is 6-3 in last nine Iowa State games.
— Favorites won/covered last five Cheez-It Bowls
— Big X teams won four of last five games vs ACC opponents.
Alamo Bowl (San Antonio)
Oklahoma (10-2) vs Oregon (10-3)
— Sooners lost two of last three games, after a 9-0 start.
— Oklahoma’s coach skipped town to USC.
— Sooners are 7-1-1 ATS in last nine games with single digit spread.
— Oklahoma is 5-6 ATS as a favorite this season.
— Sooners have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Oklahoma has 126 returning starts on offensive line.
— Sooners changed QB’s again LW; unsure who starts here.
— Last ten years, Oklahoma is 5-1 ATS as regular season road dogs.
— Sooners lost three of last four bowl games.
— Average total in Oklahoma’s last five bowls: 80.6.
— Over is 8-5 in Oklahoma games this season.
— Oregon lost two of its last three games, after a 9-1 start.
— Ducks are 9-0 when they score more than 24 points.
— Ducks were +12 in turnovers first four games, are minus-2 since.
— Oregon ran ball for 210+ yards in six of last nine games.
— Ducks are 7-5 ATS last dozen games with single digit spread.
— Ducks have 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Oregon has 36 returning starts on offensive line.
— Oregon’s QB has 40 career starts, 28 at Boston College.
— Ducks lost three of last five bowls, scoring 17.3 ppg in last three.
— Oregon lost Alamo Bowl to TCU in 2015.
— Over is 4-2 in last six Oregon games.
— Both head coaches bolted for greener pa$ture$.
— Underdog covered five of last six Alamo Bowls.
— Big X teams are 7-3 SU in last ten Alamo Bowls.
— Big X teams are 10-2 SU last dozen games vs Pac-12.
— Big X favorites are 7-4 last 11 games vs Pac-12.
Bowl Tech Trends - Week 2
Bruce Marshall
Tuesday, Dec. 21
POTATO BOWL
WYOMING vs. KENT STATE (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)
Golden Flashes 0-3 vs. line vs. FBS-level non-MAC foes this season, also 1-6 vs. spread away from Dix Stadium in 2021.
Sean Lewis did however win and cover his lone bowl chance in 2019.
Cowboys were 1-6-1 their last 8 away vs. line before late-season covers at Boise & USU.
Bohl is 3-0 vs. line in bowls with Wyo.
Tech Edge: Slight to Wyoming, based on team and extended trends.
Frisco Bowl
SAN DIEGO STATE vs. UTSA (ESPN, 7:30 p.m.)
Roadrunners had won and covered five straight on road this season until North Texas loss.
UTSA on 11-4 spread uptick since late 2020.
Aztecs lost 27-0 to Ohio U in this bowl in 2018.
Tech Edge: UTSA, based on team trends.
Wednesday, Dec. 22
ARMED FORCES BOWL
MISSOURI vs. ARMY (ESPN, 8:00 p.m.)
Tigers only 3-9 vs. spread in 2021, and that was with covers in three of last four. Spread skid had reached 11 since late 2020 at that point.
Drinkwitz 2-4 as dog this season.
Monken has covered last three bowl tries with West Point and is 3-1 SU in four bowls with Black Knights.
Tech Edge: Army, based on team trends.
Bruce Marshall
Tuesday, Dec. 21
POTATO BOWL
WYOMING vs. KENT STATE (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)
Golden Flashes 0-3 vs. line vs. FBS-level non-MAC foes this season, also 1-6 vs. spread away from Dix Stadium in 2021.
Sean Lewis did however win and cover his lone bowl chance in 2019.
Cowboys were 1-6-1 their last 8 away vs. line before late-season covers at Boise & USU.
Bohl is 3-0 vs. line in bowls with Wyo.
Tech Edge: Slight to Wyoming, based on team and extended trends.
Frisco Bowl
SAN DIEGO STATE vs. UTSA (ESPN, 7:30 p.m.)
Roadrunners had won and covered five straight on road this season until North Texas loss.
UTSA on 11-4 spread uptick since late 2020.
Aztecs lost 27-0 to Ohio U in this bowl in 2018.
Tech Edge: UTSA, based on team trends.
Wednesday, Dec. 22
ARMED FORCES BOWL
MISSOURI vs. ARMY (ESPN, 8:00 p.m.)
Tigers only 3-9 vs. spread in 2021, and that was with covers in three of last four. Spread skid had reached 11 since late 2020 at that point.
Drinkwitz 2-4 as dog this season.
Monken has covered last three bowl tries with West Point and is 3-1 SU in four bowls with Black Knights.
Tech Edge: Army, based on team trends.
Wyoming has covered the spread in five straight games when playing in Boise.
Wyoming has gone OVER the point total in four of its last five games.
Wyoming has lost six of its last eight games.
San Diego State has seen the underdog cover the spread in four straight games.
San Diego State has gone UNDER the point total in seven of its last eight games when facing an AP-ranked school.
San Diego State has failed to cover the spread in six of its last eight games when playing as the favorite.
Wyoming has gone OVER the point total in four of its last five games.
Wyoming has lost six of its last eight games.
San Diego State has seen the underdog cover the spread in four straight games.
San Diego State has gone UNDER the point total in seven of its last eight games when facing an AP-ranked school.
San Diego State has failed to cover the spread in six of its last eight games when playing as the favorite.
