These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
NFL Streaks Betting System #6: NFL road teams that have lost their last three games ATS and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 15-30 SU but 33-10-2 ATS (76.7%) in their last 45 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+14 at LAR)
* There have been 33 Thursday Night Football games since 2012 with a total of 50 or greater, and they went Under at a 22-11 rate (66.7%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-MIA (o/u at 51.5)
Pre-bye week system #9: Fade any teams heading into their bye week and playing as underdogs of more than 7 points (Record: 43-7 SU and 35-14-1 ATS since 2008, 71.4%, +19.6 units, 40% ROI, Grade 70)
System Match (FADE): TENNESSEE (+8.5 vs LAC)
Post-bye week system #1: Play road favorites coming out of their bye week. (Record: 115-47 SU and 95-63-4 ATS since ’99, 60.1%, +25.7 units, 16.3% ROI, Grade 63)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): JACKSONVILLE (-3.5 at LVR), SEATTLE (-3 at WAS)
* DETROIT has dominated divisional foe Minnesota recently, going 9-0 SU and ATS since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-8.5 vs MIN)
* In non-conference games, re-tread coaches have really struggled, going 44-60 ATS (42.3%) over the last decade, including 17-30 ATS (36.2%) over the last 3+ seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND (-5.5 vs ATL)
* HOUSTON is on a 17-57 SU and 26-47 ATS (35.6%) slide vs. elite teams with a point differential of >=+4.5 PPG since 2010
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-1.5 vs DEN)
Post-Bye Week Trends and Systems
The following NFL betting trends and systems are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason
Post-bye week system #1:
Play on road favorites coming out of their bye week. (Record: 115-47 SU and 95-63-4 ATS since ’99, 60.1%, +25.7 units, 16.3% ROI, Grade 63)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): JACKSONVILLE (-3.5 at LVR), SEATTLE (-3 at WAS)
Post-bye week system #3:
Play against home underdogs coming out of their bye week. (Record: 46-19 SU and 37-26-2 ATS since ’99, 58.7%, +8.4 units, 13.3% ROI, Grade 59)
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS (+3.5 vs JAX)
Post-bye week system #5:
Play against double-digit favorites coming off their bye week. (Record: 19-8-1 ATS since 2014, 70.4%, +10.2 units, 37.8% ROI, Grade 62)
System Match (FADE): LA RAMS (-14 vs NO)
Post-bye week system #6:
Play against road teams coming off their bye week and facing a non-divisional conference opponent. (Record: 24-14 SU and 26-12 ATS since ’19, 68.4%, +12.8 units, 33.7% ROI, Grade 65)
System Matches (FADE ALL): JACKSONVILLE (-3.5 at LVR), SEATTLE (-3 at WAS), ARIZONA (+2.5 at DAL)
Post-bye week system #7:
Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 40-21-1 since 2021, 65.6%, +16.9 units, 27.7% ROI, Grade 65)
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): JAX-LVR (o/u at 45.5), SEA-WAS (o/u at 47.5), ARI-DAL (o/u at 54.5)
Post-bye week system #8:
Play against teams coming off their bye week after a loss to a divisional opponent prior to the bye. (Record: 25-19 SU and 28-13-3 ATS since 2008, 68.3%, +13.7 units, 33.4% ROI, Grade 62)
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS (+3.5 vs JAX)
Post-bye week system #10:
Play Under the total in games where a team is coming out of its bye week after yielding 35+ points before the bye. (Record: 23-12-1 Under since 2014, 65.7%, +9.8 units, 28% ROI, Grade 62)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): JAX-LVR (o/u at 45.5)
** Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.
Arizona Cardinals Post-Bye Week Game: MON 11/3 at Dallas Cowboys
· Arizona has gone 10-4 ATS in its last 14 post-bye week road games
· The Cardinals are on skids of 1-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in post-bye week games, including 0-2 SU and ATS under head coach Gannon
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of ARIZONA (+2.5 at DAL)
Detroit Lions Post-Bye Week Game: 11/2 vs. Minnesota Vikings
· Detroit is 9-3-1 SU and 11-2 ATS in post-bye week games since 2012
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-8.5 vs MIN)
· The Lions are on a 3-0 ATS and 3-0 Under the total streaks in post-bye week divisional games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-DET (o/u at 48.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars Post-Bye Week Game: 11/2 at Las Vegas Raiders
· Jacksonville is on a 9-3-1 ATS post-bye week run vs. AFC foes
· The Jaguars are just 1-6 SU and 3-3-1 ATS in their last seven post-bye week games
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of JACKSONVILLE (-3.5 at LVR)
Los Angeles Rams Post-Bye Week Game: 11/2 vs. New Orleans Saints
· The Rams are on a 0-4 ATS post-bye week skid after going 10-3-1 ATS in prior 14
Trend Match (FADE): LA RAMS (-14 vs NO)
· The Rams are on a 5-1 Under the total run in post-bye week home games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NO-LAR (o/u at 43.5)
Las Vegas Raiders Post-Bye Week Game: 11/2 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
· The Raiders are on a 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS skid in post-bye week games overall
Trend Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS (+3.5 vs JAX)
· The Raiders are on a 5-1 Over the total surge in post-bye week home games
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): JAX-LVR (o/u at 45.5)
Seattle Seahawks Post-Bye Week Game: 11/2 at Washington Commanders
· In post-bye week games vs. non-divisional NFC foes, Seattle is on a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS surge
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-3 at WAS)
· The Seahawks have gone Under the total in seven of last eight post-bye week road games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-WAS (o/u at 47.5)