Thursday's Top Action
March 25, 2015
WICHITA STATE SHOCKERS (30-4) vs. NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (31-5)
Quicken Loans Arena - Cleveland, OH
NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:15 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Wichita State -2, Total 138
No. 7 seed Wichita State looks to keep coach Mike Brey’s No. 3 seed Notre Dame from reaching the regional finals for the first time in his tenure.
After successfully and impressively outclassing in-state foe, Kansas, Witchita State enters the round of 16 as the rare higher-seeded favorite over Notre Dame. Given the Fighting Irish’s struggles to put away No. 14 Northeastern (69-65) and their need of overtime to rid themselves of No. 6 Butler (67-64), it’s easy to see why tournament seeding has been proverbially thrown out the window with these odds.
The Fighting Irish play well as underdogs (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) and were 5-1 ATS in neutral sites until failing to cover their aforementioned two tournament games. The Shockers are used to being favorites (as they have been in all but one game this season) and have amassed a 28-3 SU (16-14-1 ATS) ledger as such. Wichita State failed to cover the 6.5-point spread in the second round 81-76 win over Indiana, and their aforementioned win over Kansas (78-65 on Sunday) had a Pick line.
Wichita State was 2-2 SU (3-1 ATS) versus NCAA tournament teams (including a split with Missouri Valley rival, Northern Iowa) before knocking off Indiana and Kansas. Notre Dame was 2-1 SU (1-2 ATS) in its non-conference schedule against NCAA tournament teams and 6-2 SU (6-2 ATS) in ACC play (against the four other conference rivals that qualified for the tournament).
This is Coach Greg Marshall’s 11th appearance in the NCAA tournament (six times with Winthrop, four with Wichita State). The Shockers have a 7-3 NCAA tournament record since 2007 when Marshall took over, highlighted by a Final Four appearance in 2013 and a loss last season versus Kentucky after an undefeated regular season.
Mike Brey is appearing in his 12th NCAA tournament as head coach (two with Delaware, 10 with Notre Dame). Brey, coach of the Fighting Irish since 2000, is 8-9 in NCAA tournament play as the head man. This is Brey’s second appearance in the Sweet 16 (2003).
Historically, Wichita State and Notre Dame have never met, however Gregg Marshall is 1-0 versus Mike Brey, as Marshall’s Winthrop Eagles (as a No. 11 seed) beat sixth seeded Notre Dame (74-64) in 2007.
Gregg Marshall-coached teams are all about defense first (56.7 PPG allowed, 9th in NCAA). and this year’s version of Wichita State (56.7 PPG allowed, 9th in NCAA) does not stray from that blueprint If you can score on the Shockers, they get somewhat uncomfortable (0-3 ATS when giving up 70+ points; 2-6 ATS when giving up 65+ points).
Wichita State excels with preventing baskets via the assist (8.7 APG allowed, 3rd in NCAA; 0.65 A:TO, 5th in NCAA), which is one of Notre Dame’s strengths. What’s important about this is that it’s boom or bust when teams can shake free of Wichita State’s hard-guarding style (34.8% 3PT against, 210th in NCAA). Granted, the Missouri Valley Conference as a whole shoots the three at an above-average percentage (four MVC teams in NCAA top 100 in 3PT %), however, the Shockers had lots of difficulty stopping Indiana (11-for-22 3PT), and Notre Dame’s offense is just as good from three and more diverse in ways that it can score (61.3% True Shooting Pct).
Even though the pace should be quite controlled, with both teams ranking below 200th in NCAA in points per-possession, Wichita State should feel comfortable in its ability to score against Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish don’t pressure the ball, and the Shockers mirror Notre Dame in a few ways on offense, namely that they don’t turn the ball over (1.46 A:TO, 8th in NCAA) and their efficient scoring (1.18 points per-possession, 18th in NCAA) helps them scrape out a respectable per-game average (70.3 PPG, 96th in NCAA).
While the Shockers aren’t known for their long-range prowess, they’ve shown the ability to get hot from deep (10-for-20 versus Kansas on Sunday). Spearheading the offense are G Fred VanVleet (12.7 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 5.7 APG, 10th in NCAA A:TO ratio) and G Ron Baker (15 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.4 3PT/G), while F Darius Carter (11.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG) and G Tekele Cotton (9.6 PPG, 4 RPG, 2.9 APG) round out the usual suspects on offense. After combining to go 1-for-9 from three versus Indiana, VanVleet, Baker, and Cotton combined to go 5-for-12 versus Kansas from deep. VanVleet, in particular, was outstanding against the Jayhawks in matching his season high of 27 points in the win.
Notre Dame runs its half-court offense just about as well as anyone in the country, as has been their calling card all season (1.2 points per-possession, 3rd in NCAA; 50.9 FG%, 2nd in NCAA; 1.6 A:TO, 4th in NCAA; 8 3PM/G, 34th in NCAA; 38.9% 3PT, 24th in NCAA) which allows them to score 78.2 points per game (14th in NCAA) despite playing at the 213th slowest pace in the nation. A deeper look, however, shows cracks in the façade starting to show through, indicating that the Irish may be starting to wear down from their earlier excellence.
The Fighting Irish have stalled out from deep (8-for-26) in the NCAA tournament so far, and they’ve only hit 10 or more threes in a game once in their past nine contests. Notre Dame had been outrebounded in each of their past seven games until needing overtime to grab 40 boards in a spirited effort versus Butler. It’s fair to question whether Brey’s shallow rotation and the ACC conference title run is starting to take its toll. If there was ever a game where Notre Dame will need their endurance, it’s against the hard-charging Shockers.
Senior G Jerian Grant (16.8 PPG, 6.6 APG, 49% FG) will once again try to lead the Fighting Irish where they haven’t been since 1979 – the Elite 8 – as he G Demetrius Jackson (12.5 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 2.9 APG) and G Pat Connaughton (12.8 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 2.6 3PM/G) are set up for what should be thrilling individual battles against the Shockers’ perimeter trio of VanVleet, Baker and Cotton. Grant has struggled shooting the ball in the tournament so far (37%) but picking up the slack has been Jackson, averaging 14.6 points per game on 55% shooting over his past five contests as Notre Dame’s secondary scoring option.
G Steve Vasturia (9.7 PPG, 1 SPG), Notre Dame’s defensive stopper, has also picked up his play on offense while pitching in a career high 20 points against Butler on Saturday. F Zach Auguste (12.6 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 60% FG) is starting to come on strong again, pouring in double-figure rebounds in two of his last three games.
NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (26-11) vs. WISCONSIN BADGERS (33-3)
Staples Center – Los Angeles, CA
NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:45 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Wisconsin -5, Total 144
North Carolina and Wisconsin will duke it out Thursday night for a chance to advance to the Elite 8.
North Carolina faced Arkansas in its last game and won 87-78 as a 5-point favorite. The Tar Heels have now won five of their past six games SU and are 4-2 ATS in those contests. Offensively the team is clicking, shooting 45% or better from the floor in each of its past four games.
Wisconsin, meanwhile, beat Oregon 72-65 as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Badgers have won eight straight games SU and have been excellent offensively as well, scoring 72.0 PPG over the course of the winning streak.
These two teams have met just once in the past five seasons and the Tar Heels won that game 60-57 as 6.5-point home favorites on Nov. 30, 2011. North Carolina is 11-4 ATS after a non-conference game this season.
Wisconsin, meanwhile, is 21-10 ATS after a non-conference game over the past two seasons and 18-9 ATS after two consecutive non-conference games in that time. The Badgers are also 8-0 SU (4-4 ATS) when playing on a neutral court this season.
F Kennedy Meeks (Knee) is 'doubtful' for this game for the Tar Heels, who are already without Fs Desmond Hubert (Knee) and Sasha Seymore (Knee) for the season. G Traevon Jackson (Ankle) is doubtful for Wisconsin, but he is also the only player dealing with an injury for the team.
North Carolina has been one of the best offensive teams in the nation this season, scoring 77.9 PPG (17th in NCAA) on an outstanding 47.5% shooting (27th in NCAA). This team knows how to move the ball (17.7 APG, 2nd in NCAA) and also rebounds very well (41.0 RPG, 2nd in NCAA). The Tar Heels do, however, allow a rather poor 68.6 PPG (239th in NCAA) but a lot of that can be attributed to their preferred pace.
F Kennedy Meeks (11.6 PPG, 7.4 RPG) will need to be healthy if this team is going to advance. Meeks is a talented scorer around the basket and his strength would give Frank Kaminsky a lot of issues on Thursday. If he doesn’t play then his teammates will really need to step it up on the glass.
F Brice Johnson (12.9 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 1.1 BPG) would be the player that is asked to play a bigger role in the rebounding department. Johnson had 13 rebounds and two blocks before fouling out against Arkansas last game. He is very active around the basket on both ends and must stay out of foul trouble in this game, as he can’t foul out if Meeks is going to sit or be less than 100%.
G Marcus Paige (14.1 PPG, 4.5 APG, 1.7 SPG) played one of his better games of the season against the Razorbacks, finishing with 22 points, six rebounds and five steals in 29 minutes of action. Paige got hot from three (3-for-6 3PT) and will need to find a way to find success against a Wisconsin team that knows how to slow the pace of games down. The Badgers did, however, allow Joseph Young to score 30 points last game and that proves that the team can have trouble with quicker guards that can shoot from the outside.
F J.P Tokoto (8.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 4.3 APG, 1.5 SPG) continues to stuff the stat sheet for the Tar Heels. He had 13 points, eight assists, five boards and two steals in 26 minutes last game. He’ll need to play a solid game defensively against either Sam Dekker or Nigel Hayes Thursday.
G Justin Jackson (10.6 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 2.3 APG) could really help this team with a solid scoring performance. He is averaging 15.0 PPG in the tournament so far and that type of game would give the team a real chance at upsetting Wisconsin.
Wisconsin has run one of the most efficient offenses in the nation this season, scoring 71.9 PPG (67th in NCAA) on 48.0% shooting (21st in NCAA). The Badgers are also allowing just 56.8 PPG (10th in NCAA), but they prefer to play at a very slow pace and aren’t as good defensively as that number suggests. They can have trouble stopping guards that penetrate the lane and will need to make sure they keep Marcus Paige in line Thursday.
C Frank Kaminsky (18.4 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.5 BPG) is averaging 21.5 PPG and 9.5 RPG in two games this tournament. He had 16 points and seven boards against Oregon last game, but didn’t play the way he is capable of in that contest. He will really need to make his presence felt inside against North Carolina in this game, especially if Kennedy Meeks is to sit out.
F Sam Dekker (13.3 PPG, 5.4 RPG) has really had an incredible tournament for Wisconsin so far, averaging 18.5 PPG in 34.0 MPG. Dekker went 7-for-16 from the outside in the first two tourney games for the Badgers and has made timely buckets late in games. He is extremely athletic and active around the rim on offense and has been playing solid defensively as well. He’ll need to be ready to perform at a high level once again, as teams are putting more and more emphasis on stopping Kaminsky.
F Nigel Hayes (12.6 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 2.1 APG) has also played very well both inside and outside for Wisconsin. Hayes comes to play every single night and is averaging 17.3 PPG over the past four contests. He is extremely strong once he gets two feet in the paint and he can also knock down jumpers as well as any guard on this team. If he is playing well then there will be less pressure on his teammates to score.
G Bronson Koenig (8.6 PPG, 2.4 APG) had 12 points in 28 minutes against Oregon. Koenig is an excellent outside shooter (41% 3PT) and can also run this offense to perfection despite his low assist numbers. He’ll need to hold his own against Marcus Paige on Thursday and if his previous performances in big games are any indication then he is certainly capable of doing so.
XAVIER MUSKETEERS (23-13) vs. ARIZONA WILDCATS (33-3)
Staples Center – Los Angeles, CA
NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16
Tip-off: Thursday, 10:17 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Arizona -10.5, Total 136
No. 2 seed Arizona looks to keep punishing tournament foes as it faces No. 6 Xavier for the right to go to the Elite Eight.
If it weren’t for Kentucky’s season-long dominance, Arizona’s recent play would be garnering more headlines. Surely for Coach Sean Miller, this isn’t a bad thing. The Wildcats, winners of 13 straight, will enter their game against Xavier as a double-digit favorite for the eighth straight game (5-2 ATS in previous seven). The Wildcats are fresh off of a 73-58 win over Ohio State in the third round, as they held star Buckeye guard, D’Angelo Russell, to nine points on 3-for-19 shooting.
The Musketeers, losers in the Big East conference finals to Villanova, have had the good fortune of facing two double-digit seeds in the NCAA tournament thus far, easing by No. 11 seed Ole Miss and No. 14 Georgia State 76-57 and 75-67 respectively.
The Musketeers did have impressive conference tournament wins over NCAA tournament teams Butler and Georgetown, as they enter this contest as winners of five of their past six (4-2 ATS).
Arizona will be the first non-conference opponent to make the NCAA tournament that Xavier plays this year, and will be the second time all season that the Musketeers are double-digit underdogs (88-75 loss at Villanova as 10-point underdogs on Jan. 14). Xavier is 5-3 SU (5-3 ATS) in neutral sites this season while Arizona is undefeated (8-0 SU) and 4-4 ATS on neutral courts.
Both Arizona and Xavier have had their total hit Under in four of their past five games respectively. The major storyline for the game will revolve around a subplot of coaching mentor versus protégé, as Sean Miller will be coaching against his former team, and former top lieutenant on the bench, Xavier’s Chris Mack.
Miller coached the Musketeers from 2004-2009 and Mack was his top assistant, as the two led Xavier to four NCAA appearances, culminating in one Elite Eight trip in 2008 and a Sweet 16 trip in 2009.
Once Miller left for Arizona, Mack took over at the end of the bench. Mack has led the Musketeers to the NCAA tournament in five of his six seasons as head man, including two Sweet 16 appearances.
Mack is 6-4 overall in the NCAA tournament. Miller, over his tenures at Xavier and Arizona has compiled a 16-7 overall NCAA tournament resume (8-3 at Arizona) and has reached the Sweet 16 in three straight seasons (and Elite Eight in two of the past three seasons. Miller’s three tournament losses at Arizona have all been by three points or less.
Five Xavier players average over 8.5 points per game, as Coach Mack has a solid eight-man rotation with a good mix of size, athleticism and experience. Only one Musketeer - G Dee Davis (8.5 PPG, 6.1 APG, 32 MPG) - plays 30+ minutes per game. Playing Arizona presents myriad problems, but chief of Mack’s concerns should be keeping the Wildcats off the glass, as Arizona (+9.5 reb margin, 2nd in NCAA) has upped that to a +12 rebounding margin over its past five games. X
avier is very good at keeping opponents off the glass (30.9 RPG allowed, 39th in NCAA), as it always helps to shoot 68% from the field, as it did in its win on Saturday versus Georgia State (in the process, allowing only 12 rebounds). Xavier’s total rebounding numbers are mediocre, but its strong defensive rebounding contributes to a rebounding margin that’s 60th in the country. Xavier’s overall profile from the field (47.7% FG, 22nd in NCAA) shows that the performance versus Georgia State on offense wasn’t completely out of the blue.
The Musketeers balanced offense shares the ball (16.3 APG, 9th in NCAA) and doesn’t turn it over (1.35 A:TO, 23rd in NCAA). Xavier hadn’t profiled as a team reliant on beating you with the three in the regular season (35.6% 3PT, 118th in NCAA) but its two NCAA tournament wins have been a different story, as the team has gone 17-for-36 from downtown.
Leading the long range efforts have been Davis (5-for-10 3PT) scoring 15 and 17 points respectively and fellow G Myles Davis (10.7 PPG) – no relation – who broke out of a 1-for-12 slump from long range going into the tournament to hit seven of his past 13 threes (including going 5-for-8 in the win over Georgia State). Xavier is led in scoring by senior C Matt Stainbrook (12.0 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.4 APG), who is very adept at finding the open man on offense from the high post.
The ever-inconsistent F Trevon Bluitt (11.7 PPG) would be very helpful to have contribute versus Arizona, as he’s scored only seven points over two games so far. F Jalen Reynolds (9.6 PPG, 6.2 RPG) scored 21 points on 8-for-9 shooting from the field versus Georgia State and has the size and athleticism to match Arizona’s length inside, if he can stay out of foul trouble.
Given how well Arizona is playing as of late, the Wildcats won’t be fazed by Xavier’s defensive profile (191st in NCAA in points allowed). If Arizona is to struggle versus Xavier, it’ll be its own doing, as Xavier is excellent at drawing fouls (20.2 per game, 32nd in NCAA). Of course, Arizona profiles as even better, at 20.9 fouls drawn per game (12th in NCAA), but if F Brandon Ashley (12.3 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 51% FG), F Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (10.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG), F Stanley Johnson (14.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG) or C Kaleb Tarczewski (9.0 PPG, 5.1 RPG) were to find themselves in foul trouble, they’d arguably be worse-equipped to deal with the depth drop-off than Xavier, as only one bench player for the Wildcats sees significant minutes (G Gabe York – 9.1 PPG, 22.0 MPG).
Given the way G T.J. McConnell (9.8 PPG, 6.4 APG, 2.1 SPG) has been playing recently, though, one gets the feeling that he’ll be able to will this club far past this round. McConnell has put on a show through two rounds so far, filling the stat sheet with 31 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists and nine steals in total thus far. Even more impressive, as a 6-foot-1 point guard, McConnell is shooting 13-for-21 from the field.
While Arizona doesn’t light it up from the perimeter, York (the aforementioned sixth man) can be a big weapon for the Wildcats, as he hit for 21 points (5-for-9 from three) in their most recent win over Ohio State. Hollis-Jefferson has quietly put up two straight double-doubles (points and rebounds) for the Wildcats, who will need more from their star freshman, Johnson, who went just 1-for-12 from the field versus Ohio State in the third round.
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (25-9) vs. KENTUCKY WILDCATS (36-0)
Quicken Loans Arena – Cleveland, OH
NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:45 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Kentucky -13.5, Total 136.5
Kentucky looks to stay perfect and advance to the Elite 8 with a win over West Virginia Thursday.
West Virginia faced Maryland in the last round of this tournament and won 69-59 as a 1.5-point favorite. The Mountaineers have now won-and-covered in two straight games and three of their past four. They have also covered in seven of their past nine games.
Kentucky, meanwhile, defeated Cincinnati 64-51 as a 16-point favorite last round. The Wildcats obviously come into this game after having won 36 games in a row SU. They have held their past nine opponents under 70 points and have only allowed their opponent to shoot over 40% from the field in four of their past 10 games. The Wildcats know how to make their opponent uncomfortable and they’ll look to do the same against West Virginia Thursday.
These teams have met four times since 1997 and Kentucky has gone 3-1 both SU and ATS in those games. The one West Virginia victory will hold significance though, as it was a Mountaineers 73-66 upset over John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins’ then 35-2 Kentucky team in 2010. That John Calipari team was considered one of the best he ever coached, so Bob Huggins will draw motivation from that upset for this year’s bunch.
West Virginia is 12-3 ATS when seeded 5 to 8 in the NCAA tournament since 1997 and 19-5 ATS overall in the tournament since then as well. Kentucky, meanwhile, is 84-58 ATS off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite since 1997.
F Kevin Noreen (Undisclosed) is out indefinitely for the Mountaineers and F Alex Poythress (Knee) is out for the season for the Wildcats.
The Mountaineers have been a solid team offensively this season, putting up 73.9 PPG (36th in NCAA) but they’re shooting just 41.2% from the floor (282nd in NCAA). They are also decent on the defensive end, allowing just 66.5 PPG (164th in NCAA) thanks to 10.9 SPG (1st in NCAA). West Virginia will need to play a nearly perfect game on Tuesday, forcing turnovers against Kentucky and also avoiding turning the ball over itself.
G Juwan Staten (14.2 PPG, 4.8 APG, 2.8 RPG, 1.1 SPG) will have to play a very good game against the Wildcats in this one. Staten struggled against Maryland, finishing with just six points in 34 minutes of action. He is this team’s most reliable scorer and will need to get his shots to fall in this one. He also has to do a solid job of finding his teammates, as he is this team’s best passer.
F Devin Williams (11.6 PPG, 8.2 RPG) has come into his own for the Mountaineers, averaging 17.0 PPG over the past three games. He had 16 points and 10 boards in 32 minutes against Maryland and must be extremely active in the game Thursday. Williams will be battling for rebounds against a big and athletic frontcourt, so he will have to bring some serious intensity to this game.
F Jonathan Holton (7.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.1 SPG) also must have a big game on the glass. Holton had 12 points against Maryland last game, but he has had four or less rebounds in each of the past four games. He will need to be much better in that department in order for his team to have a chance of upsetting Kentucky.
G Daxter Miles Jr. (7.5 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 1.1 SPG) is going to be an x-factor for this team. Miles Jr. is on fire recently, averaging 12.0 PPG over the past four contests. He is shooting 50% from three in those games and can really impact this game if he is stretching the floor.
Kentucky has been dominant throughout the course of the entire season, playing flawless basketball on both ends of the court. The Wildcats are allowing just 53.9 PPG (3rd in NCAA) thanks to 6.9 BPG (2nd in NCAA). Defense has been the strength, but they are also very good on offense. Offensively the team is impressive as well, scoring 74.9 PPG (29th in NCAA) on 46.9% shooting (40th in NCAA).
The guy that makes this team go is C Willie Cauley-Stein (9.3 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.7 BPG). The big man has had 2+ blocks in each of the past five games and has unbelievable athleticism for a player his size. At 7-feet tall, Cauley-Stein runs the floor like a point guard and has very good timing. He’ll serve as a serious source of rim protection in this game and should also have a number of dunks as well.
F Karl-Anthony Towns (10.0 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.4 BPG) is another big man with big-time shot-blocking ability. Towns has stood out for Kentucky in this tournament, averaging 14.5 PPG, 9.0 RPG and 3.0 BPG over the past two games. He’ll need to continue scoring around the basket in addition to playing the great defense that fans have become accustomed to.
In the backcourt, Gs Andrew Harrison (9.2 PPG, 3.6 APG, 2.2 RPG) and Aaron Harrison (11.1 PPG, 1.2 SPG) are the two most consistent contributors. Andrew Harrison is responsible for running this offense. He is a smart player that avoids turnovers and he is capable of knocking down shots when called upon (39% 3PT). Aaron Harrison is this team’s crunch time scorer. He knows how to create his own shot and is not afraid of the big moment. He’ll need to play well in this game or the Wildcats could be upset before the Elite 8.
G Devin Booker (10.1 PPG) is going to be an important player in this game. Booker is one of the best shooters in the nation (41% 3PT) and is second on the team in points per game, but he’s scored in double figures just once in the past seven games. He’ll need to find his stroke in this one. Fortunately for the Wildcats, their roster runs nine-deep with players that could start on any other team in the country.
