Thursday's Top Action
February 25, 2015
NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS(13-14) at OHIO ST BUCKEYES (19-8)
Value City Arena - Columbus, OH
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Ohio State -14.5
After being embarrassed at home on Sunday, Nebraska visits Ohio State trying to end a five game skid.
It was only a year ago that Nebraska was the surprise team in the conference, as they picked up their first NCAA berth since 1998. A season built on hope, with leaders returning, has turned into disaster for the Cornhuskers, as they hit a new low in a 28-point home loss to Iowa on Sunday. Following the game, Coach Tim Miles banned his players from all the amenities of Nebraska’s new facilities and from speaking to the media. Nebraska is 1-7 SU (2-6 ATS) in their last 8 games. Furthermore, they haven’t won a conference game on the road all season (0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS).
Coach Thad Matta’s host Buckeyes are also not playing their best ball of the season, having lost their last two (at Michigan State, at Michigan). The most recent loss to Michigan on Sunday, 64-57, was highlighted by sloppy play (9:14 A:TO ratio), and a first half that saw Ohio State fall 16 points down, rendering them unable to come all the way back for the road win. The Buckeyes return home to the friendly confines of Value City Arena where they are undefeated since the calendar flipped to 2015 (5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS), with their lone conference home loss coming in late December to Iowa.
Historically, since Nebraska joined the Big Ten (2011) Ohio State has dominated this matchup, going 7-1 SU (5-3 ATS), and 3-0 in Value City Arena. The most recent game between these two teams was in the 2014 Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis, where Ohio State rallied from an 18-point second-half deficit to win. Nebraska’s lone win in this series was last season, in late January, when they defeated the then No. 17 Buckeyes in Lincoln, 68-62.
Nebraska’s outlook for this contest, and the rest of the season, is shockingly dim, as Coach Miles realized that his players needed a wake-up call with the facilities and media ban after the home loss to Iowa. The Cornhuskers will surely be underdogs in Columbus, and are 1-7 SU (1-5-1 ATS) as road underdogs this season. At the root of their issues all season is putting the ball in the basket (61.7 PPG, 13th in Big Ten, 306th in NCAA).
Nebraska is even worse on the road (55.2 PPG). Considering the Cornhuskers boast two of the conferences better offensive players in F Terran Petteway (18.2 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.9 APG) and G Shavon Shields (15.6 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 45% FG), Nebraska’s offensive issues become that much more mysterious. The fact of the matter is that they don’t have anything close to a third reliable offensive option.
Maybe F Walter Pitchford (7.5 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.3 threes/game) can fill that role. Pitchford likes to roam the perimeter, and has pitched in double-digit scoring in three straight games, after only going above 10 points once in his previous 12 conference games. After Pitchford, though, no Cornhusker has scored in double figures in any of Nebraska’s last five losses, and only one player (F Tarin Smith – 4.3 PPG) has scored more than five points in a game in that span. Besides the rare outburst from deep (10 threes at Maryland), the Cornhuskers have been awful from three (27% 3PT, 14th in Big Ten, 343rd in NCAA) in conference play.
Nebraska relies on its slow pace and defense (62 PPG allowed, 5th Big in Ten, 69th in NCAA) to keep games close, in hopes that Petteway or Shields can make big pressure shots down the stretch. That said, their field goal defense (50% versus Iowa, 47% at Maryland) in recent games hasn’t been fearsome at all.
As star freshman G D’Angelo Russell (19 PPG, 5.4 APG, 5.8 APG) has gone this season, so goes Ohio State. Russell struggled in the state of Michigan the past two weekends, only averaging 13 points on 36% FG. Russell also committed more turnovers than assists (2:5 A:TO) at Michigan for the first time since early January.
F Sam Thompson (10.3 PPG, 3.7 RPG) and F Jae’Sean Tate (8.4 PPG, 4.9 RPG) both shoot it well from the field (49% for Thompson, 58% for Tate) and both boast double-figure scoring potential nightly, they just need more opportunities to score.
The biggest mystery with the Buckeye offense is the disappearance of senior G Shannon Scott (7.6 PPG, 6.1 APG, 1.6 SPG). Scott is a pure point guard who’s been forced to play off the ball for long stretches as Matta funnels his offense through Russell. Not a knockdown shooter, this has forced Scott into some major struggles on offense in the past month (5.7 PPG, 3.8 APG, 32% FG, 22% 3PT in last six games).
F Marc Loving (10.9 PPG) had started for most of the season, but is working his way back slowly into the rotation after a recent suspension and has been a non-factor in the past two contests (4 points in 17 minutes versus Michigan). If exciting freshman F Keita Bates-Diop (4.5 PPG, 0.8 BPG) can continue impressing in limited minutes (12 points in 19 minutes at Michigan) he could provide Matta with another dimension on both ends of the floor with his length, versatility, and potential.
If Ohio State can glean anything from Iowa’s victory over Nebraska, it’s that the Cornhuskers aren’t playing great defense at the moment. As long as the Buckeyes can control the pace, their 49.7% FG (1st in Big Ten, 5th in NCAA) would seem to indicate that their offensive woes should come to an end now that they’re back in Columbus versus a very vulnerable opponent.
ARIZONA WILDCATS (24-3) at COLORADO BUFFALOES (12-14)
Coors Events Center – Boulder, CO
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Arizona -10.5
Colorado tries to post a signature win during a miserable season when it hosts No. 7 Arizona on Thursday night.
The Wildcats have ripped off 10 wins in their past 11 games (8-3 ATS), which started with a 68-54 blowout of the Buffaloes on Jan. 15. That was one of Colorado's three losses to top-25 teams this season, as the club was also blown out twice by Utah by margins of 25 and 28 points.
The Buffs are 3-9 SU (4-7-1 ATS) in their past 12 games, which includes a 2-3 mark (SU and ATS) at home where they are 10-4 SU (8-5-1 ATS) this season. Arizona is 6-3 SU (5-4 ATS) in true road games this season and is also 12-2 SU (9-5 ATS) with a +17.3 PPG margin after having at least three days of rest. Colorado is 5-6 (SU and ATS) in this heavy rest scenario.
The Wildcats have dominated this series recently with five straight wins SU, all by double-digits and a +16.6 PPG margin, but the Buffaloes hold the 5-3 ATS advantage in the past eight meetings. This includes Colorado SU wins at home in 2012 and 2013, but Arizona rolled to an easy 88-61 road win in this series last February with 57 second-half points, marking its first victory in Boulder since 1973.
Arizona is excellent in nearly all facets with 75.6 PPG and only 58.7 PPG allowed for a whopping +16.9 PPG scoring margin. The team outshoots opponents by nearly 10 percent, with an offensive clip of 49.0% FG, while posting a 39.7% FG Pct. on defense. The Wildcats are able to do this with an admirable 1.2 Ast/TO ratio and +2.9 turnover margin. The only areas Arizona's offense isn't particularly strong in are three-point shooting (4.9 per game, 35.3% threes) and foul shooting (68.7% FT). The Wildcats have a very balanced offense with six players averaging at least 22.5 MPG and 8.8 PPG.
The team's scoring leader is freshman swingman Stanley Johnson (14.2 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.4 SPG), who shoots 47% FG and 36% threes. He lit up Colorado for a career-high 22 points (7-of-15 FG, 8-of-9 FT) and eight rebounds on Jan. 15, but is coming off his worst offensive showing of his career on Saturday when he made just 1-of-9 FG in the win over UCLA. Junior F Brandon Ashley (11.3 PPG, 5.3 RPG) pulled down a game-high 11 rebounds (4 offensive) to go along with seven points in last month's win versus the Buffaloes. He has also scored 11+ points in eight of his past 10 games, but was dreadful in Saturday's win with just five points on 2-of-10 shooting.
F Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (11.1 PPG, 6.6 RPG) shoots 53% FG, but was 1-for-6 FG in Saturday's win and 0-for-3 from the floor in the victory over Colorado earlier this season. But entering Saturday, the sophomore had posted 11+ points in six straight contests where he knocked down 62% of his shots. PG T.J. McConnell (9.9 PPG, 6.0 APG, 3.8 RPG) has a 50% FG clip and a stellar 3.1 Ast/TO ratio this season. He posted a well-rounded eight points, seven rebounds and six assists in the Jan. 15 victory over the Buffaloes, and is riding a five-game streak of double-figure scoring (14.0 PPG).
Seven-foot C Kaleb Tarczewski (8.8 PPG, 5.1 RPG) scored 14 points (5-of-7 FG) in just 25 minutes versus Colorado last month, and has 12.3 PPG on 70% FG (14-of-20) with 7.3 RPG in his past three games.
The Buffaloes only real chance in this game is to dominate the glass as it has done so often this season (+4.2 RPG margin). The team also blocks 4.0 shots per game, which helps limit opponents to 65.3 PPG on 41.0% FG. But this is not a good offensive club, averaging a mere 66.7 PPG on 42.4% FG and 35.1% threes. It also holds a minus-1.8 turnover margin with 13.4 turnovers committed per game.
The one consistent scorer for Colorado this season is G Askia Booker (17.0 PPG, 3.3 APG, 3.2 RPG, 1.4 SPG) who shoots 39% from the floor and 36% from three-point range. Booker scored 30 of his team's 54 points in the loss at Arizona last month, as he drained 11-of-17 shots (6-of-9 threes) with four rebounds and three assists to keep the final score somewhat respectable. Booker will need to improve greatly on Saturday's performance when he made just 2-of-14 FG in the 14-point loss at Oregon State.
C Josh Scott (12.7 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 1.8 BPG) is a presence down low with a soft touch to pull opposing big men away from the rim, and he finally looks healthy after a long absence due to a back injury. Scott didn't play in the loss in Tucson on Jan. 15, but has yanked down 30 rebounds in his past three contests to go along with 7.0 PPG.
The team's third option on offense is junior swingman Xavier Johnson (11.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG) who is coming off a strong 12-point, nine-rebound effort in Saturday's loss. Johnson did not play versus the Wildcats last month, but faced them three times last season with very different results. After scoring 21 points (7-of-12 FG) in Tucson, he made just 1-of-10 shots at home for five points, before posting a respectable 11 points and five rebounds in the Pac-12 Tournament loss to Arizona last March.