Saturday's Top Action
February 20, 2015
FLORIDA GATORS (13-13) at LSU TIGERS (18-8)
Pete Maravich Assembly Center – Baton Rouge, Louisiana
Tip-off: Saturday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Tigers -5.5
The Gators look to get back over .500 with a win in Baton Rouge over LSU Saturday.
Florida is coming off of a 50-47 win over Vanderbilt as a 5-point home favorite on Wednesday. It was the Gators’ first victory in five games and they are now 2-4 ATS in their past six as well. This Florida offense is miserable, failing to score 70+ in seven straight games. They rarely ever come through with a great performance on that end of the floor, so they’ll need to play excellent defense against LSU. The Tigers, meanwhile, are coming off of a 68-62 loss as 2.5-point underdogs at Texas A&M on Tuesday.
LSU beat the Gators in Florida earlier in the season, winning 79-61 as an 11-point road underdog. Prior to that win for the Tigers, Florida had won six straight games SU against LSU. The Gators have won in their last two games at Pete Maravich Assembly Center, but they have failed to cover in three of their past four games in Baton Rouge. The Gators are just 6-7 SU and ATS versus SEC opponents this season, and they’re also a lousy 2-7-2 ATS when coming off of a SU win. LSU, meanwhile, is 7-6 SU and 7-5-1 ATS versus the SEC this season and 6-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS when coming off of a SU loss.
G Michael Frazier II (Ankle), F Dorian Finney-Smith (Suspension), G Dillon Graham (Personal), C John Egbunu (Eligibility), G Brandone Francis (Academics) and G DeVon Walker (Knee) are all out indefinitely or for the season. LSU is not currently dealing with any injuries.
Florida barely came away with a home victory over Vanderbilt on Wednesday, but they’ll still be satisfied to come away from that night at .500. At this point in the year, the Gators are playing for NIT eligibility and it will be tough with off the court problems derailing this team. Florida has been horrible offensively this season, averaging just 64.8 PPG (242nd in NCAA) on 43.7% shooting (174th in NCAA). They don’t have many scoring options and where they are able to give teams trouble is on the defensive end. The Gators allow just 59.4 PPG (23rd in NCAA) and do so by getting into the passing lanes, averaging 7.6 SPG (51st in NCAA).
With the team depleted by injuries, F Devin Robinson (5.9 PPG, 2.7 RPG) is a guy who will really need to play well. Robinson had 12 points and six rebounds against Vanderbilt, but he has been very inconsistent recently. After a 14-point performance against Ole Miss three games ago, Robinson was in foul trouble and didn’t score a point against Texas A&M the following game. He’ll need to find a way to stay on the court and provide some offense for this team.
G Kasey Hill (7.2 PPG, 4.5 APG) will also need to play well going forward. Hill had just three points and five assists in 30 minutes against Vanderbilt and that followed up a game in which he had no points and 10 assists in a win over Texas A&M. While his distributing has been excellent, the team needs him to start finding the bottom of the net.
C Jon Horford (6.1 PPG, 4.7 RPG) is one of the few starters who is still playing for Florida at this point in the season. He had just four points and three rebounds against LSU in the last meeting between these teams and will need to play well defensively against what is a dominant frontcourt for the Tigers.
G Eli Carter (8.6 PPG) followed up a 22-point performance against A&M with just six points (2-for-9 FG, 0-for-5 3PT) against Vanderbilt. Carter has been miserable from behind the arc this season (30% FG), but he is a better shooter than his stats give him credit for. He’ll need to start making some shots for this team if they are going to find themselves playing in any respectable postseason tournament this year.
The Tigers have one of the better offenses in the nation, scoring 73.7 PPG (42nd in NCAA) on 45.7% shooting (76th in NCAA). Defensively, however, they have struggled in allowing 67.3 PPG (203rd in NCAA) despite 6.4 BPG (6th in NCAA) and 7.5 SPG (53rd in NCAA). The Tigers have a very winnable game against Florida in this one and have a great chance to regroup after their loss to Texas A&M.
F Jarrell Martin (15.8 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 1.2 SPG) has been one of the most consistent players for this LSU team this year. Martin fouled out against Texas A&M, but he had 13 points and six rebounds before exiting and had 22 points in a win over Florida early in the season. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he should be able to really hurt the Gators with his ability to score both from midrange and around the basket.
F Jordan Mickey (16.7 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 3.8 BPG) was awful against Texas A&M last game, finishing with just six points and four rebounds in 34 minutes. He did, however, dominate Florida in their last meeting with 14 points, 14 rebounds and three assists in 35 minutes. Jon Horford has size inside, but he doesn’t have the speed or athleticism to really guard Mickey. The Tigers will need to feed him the ball often in this game.
G Tim Quarterman (11.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.4 SPG) is a guy that can really fill up the stat sheet. He had 15 points, eight assists, five rebounds and a steal against the Gators last meeting and his length at the guard position really gave Florida issues. He’ll need to keep attacking the rim and getting into passing lanes for this team.
G Keith Hornsby (12.7 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.2 SPG) is LSU’s best shooter from behind the arc (37% 3PT). He had 15 points (6-for-12 FG, 3-for-6 3PT) and two steals against Florida last meeting and will need to knock down his open shots in this one as well.
MIAMI HURRICANES (17-9) at LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (20-6)
KFC Yum! Center - Louisville, KY
Tip-off: Saturday, 2:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Cardinals -9
No. 12 Louisville looks to stop their free-fall and prevent a three game losing skid when they host Miami on Saturday.
Louisville, losers of two of its past three, is a mess right now. Coach Rick Pitino’s crew has lost their last two games, both to inferior squads (at home versus NC State and on the road at Syracuse). The Cardinals were without G Chris Jones (13.6 PPG, 3.7 APG, 2.0 SPG) against Syracuse due to a suspension from Pitino, but local reports have Jones pegged to play versus the Hurricanes.
Miami has had an up-and-down year to this point, unable to put together a consistent stretch of conference wins. The Hurricanes do have a modest two-game run with victories over ACC bottom-feeders Boston College, and Virginia Tech. The Boston College game, especially – as a double overtime victory on the road (after being delayed due to weather) – may be a positive turning point in the Hurricanes’ season.
Louisville and Miami have already met this season, with the Cardinals picking up a 63-55 win on Feb. 3 in Coral Gables (covering the 4.5-point spread). Jones was huge in that matchup, racking up 16 points, eight rebounds, five assists, and a season-high six steals. Miami really struggled to just 34% FG in that matchup as only one player shot over 50% on the entire squad. Historically, Miami has never beaten or covered against Louisville in this series’ limited recent history (only 3 meetings since 2005).
Louisville has been mediocre ATS this season at 10-14-1, and even worse at home (5-10-1 ATS), while Miami is 4-4 ATS on the road. Something has to give with the total of this game, though, as while Miami has gone Over in nine of their previous 11 road games, Louisville has gone Under in eight of their last 10 home games.
Miami has shown that they can play up to the level of competition this season with top-25 wins over then-No. 8 Florida, and at No. 4 Duke. They also took No. 2, Virginia, down to the wire in two overtimes, before losing 89-80 (and being the only team to break the 80 point mark against the Cavaliers in the process). Lately, however, the Hurricanes look like a middling lower-tier conference team, having gone .500 in conference play since Jan. 17.
It should be no surprise that behind this drop in production has been a severe dip in play from team leader, G Angel Rodriguez (12.6 PPG, 4.6 APG, 2.0 SPG), as Rodriguez’s numbers in the 10-game span from Jan. 17th to now are putrid (8.5 PPG, 23% FG, 19% 3PT). Miami has been held together due to consistent scoring from G Sheldon McClellan (14.8 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.5 threes/gm on 38% 3PT), and an uptick in play from sophomore G Davon Reed (7.4 PPG) who’s averaged 11.4 PPG and is hot from the field (58% FG, 55% 3PT – 2.2 threes/gm) since working his way into a major role on offense (26+ minutes per game) – coincidentally, exactly when Rodriguez started to tail off in production. Getting all three backcourt weapons to mesh cohesively is a must for Coach Jim Larranaga if the Hurricanes cling to any realistic at-large NCAA hopes.
The rock for Miami all season has been their man in the middle, C Tonye Jekiri (8.5 PPG, 10.4 RPG – 1st in ACC, 14th in NCAA). The seven-footer is a legitimate candidate for All-ACC honors as one of the most improved players in the country. Reed and Jekiri led the Hurricanes in their eight point loss earlier in the month to Louisville, as Jekiri posted a double-double and Reed almost had a perfect night from the field (7-8 FG; 5-6 threes) for a team-high 19 points. Rodriguez struggled mightily with Louisville’s press and fouled out with only six points and one assist for the game.
Miami is a much better offensive team on the road, oddly enough (73 PPG – 19th in NCAA in road PPG) and their strong assist-to-turnover ratio (1.36, 20th in NCAA) bodes well against the aggressive Louisville press. If they can handle the press and set themselves up for open threes (35.9% of Miami points come from beyond the arc, 31st in NCAA) the Hurricanes will have a great chance at kicking Louisville while they’re down.
It may be just another game in February, but given the Cardinals’ recent play, this game is as close to a must-win February game as there is. The last 10 days might’ve been Coach Rick Pitino’s worst at the helm of Louisiville: A loss, as a 10.5-point home favorite, to mediocre North Carolina State, compounded by the second suspension this season of starting senior guard, Jones, and then another loss at Syracuse (a squad that Louisville had owned, historically) brings us to this game against middle-of-the-pack Miami.
The woes for Louisville start on offense, where the numbers say they’re decent (71.1 PPG, 84th in NCAA) their recent play says otherwise. Louisville hasn’t broken 68 points since January (five games) and is averaging 60.6 PPG in that span. The underlying issue with the lack of offense is that Louisville relies on their defense to turn into offense. Through Jan. 31 Louisville had a streak (to start the season) of 16 straight games with 12+ turnovers forced, and their season average of 14.2 TO/G is still good for 42nd in the nation. That said, they’re only forcing turnovers at a shockingly-low (for Louisville) rate of 10.2/game in ACC play, good for a four-way tie for 13th place in the conference.
This is not historically indicative of a Rick Pitino coached squad. Left without transition buckets to feast on and Louisville’s poor perimeter shooting really hurts them (32% 3PT, 14th ACC), see F Wayne Blackshear (10.5 PPG, 1.6 threes/gm) and his 0-0-0 line (points, rebounds, assists) in the recent loss to Syracuse ? a game Louisville desperately needed Blackshear’s outside shooting against Syracuse’s zone - for no further explanation as to the lack of depth in Louisville’s offensive attack.
The Cardinals are blessed with the inside-outside duo of G Terry Rozier (18 PPG, 5.5 RPG 44% FG) and F Montrezl Harrell (15.4 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 58% FG), but those two alone can’t carry this offense to respectability, as the effective return of Jones will go a long way to determining the outcome of this game. In Jones’ stead, sophomore G Quentin Snider (2.5 PPG) provided a season-high 13 points and hit three triples in the loss at the Carrier Dome.
Coach Pitino also has to be encouraged by the recent play of F Chinanu Onuaku (3.4 PPG, 1.5 BPG) who went for eight points, 11 rebounds, and three blocks on Wednesday night.