NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 14
Sunday’s games
Dolphins (-2.5) @ Jets
Dolphins (4-7)
Miami won three of last four games, after a 1-6 start.
Miami allowed 27+ points in all seven losses.
Dolphins are 4-0 when they allow less than 27 points.
QB Tagovailoa is 42-32 as an NFL starter.
McDaniel is 32-32 as a head coach.
Miami is 4-6-2 ATS last 12 games as a favorite.
Miami is 3-8 ATS in last 11 games coming off a win.
Last three games, Dolphins ran ball for 197-169-164 yards.
Dolphins went over their team total six of last nine games.
Miami is 13-6 ATS in last 19 AFC East road games.
Jets (3-9)
Jets are 3-2 in last five games, after an 0-7 start.
Jets are 0-7 when they score less than 27 points.
Last four games, Jets gained 169-245-282-269 total yards.
Taylor is 29-31-1 as an NFL starter.
Aaron Glenn is 3-9 as a head coach.
Jets are 12-17 ATS last 29 games as a home underdog
Jets are 7-15-1 ATS last 23 games coming off a win.
Jets are 5-8 ATS in last 13 AFC East home games.
Jets are minus-12 in turnovers this season.
Jets are 3-5 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Dolphins (-2.5) beat Jets 27-21 at home in Week 4.
Miami won 10 of last 12 series games.
Teams split their last eight meetings in New Jersey.
Over is 5-1 in last six series games.
Steelers @ Ravens (-6)
Steelers (6-6)
Steelers lost five of last seven games, after a 4-1 start.
Pittsburgh is 5-2 when it allows less than 31 points.
Steelers are +12 in turnovers in wins, minus-6 in losses.
Rodgers is 170-102-1 as an NFL starter
Tomlin is 197-124-2 as a head coach.
Steelers are 11-9 ATS last 20 games as a road underdog.
Since 20018, Pittsburgh is 40-21-1 ATS as an underdog.
Steelers are 12-7 ATS last 19 games coming off a loss.
Steelers are 9-7 ATS in last 16 AFC North road games.
Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
Ravens (6-6)
Baltimore won five of its last five games, after a 1-5 start.
Baltimore is 0-4 when they allow more than 19 points.
Ravens are minus-13 in turnovers in losses, +9 in wins.
QB Jackson is 78-33 as an NFL starter
John Harbaugh is 191-121 as an NFL head coach.
Ravens are 12-10 ATS last 22 games as a home favorite.
Ravens are 8-4 ATS last 12 games coming off a loss.
Ravens are 5-9 ATS in last 14 AFC North home games.
Last two games, Baltimore converted 5-21 third down plays.
Under is 6-1 in their last seven games.
Teams split their last six series games.
Steelers lost 34-17/28-14 in last two visits to Baltimore.
Over is 8-1 in last nine meetings.
Saints @ Buccaneers (-8.5)
Saints (2-10)
Saints lost six of their last seven games.
Saints are +6 in turnovers in wins, minus-11 in losses.
Saints allowed 14-7 points in their two wins
26-year old rookie QB Shough is 1-3 as an NFL starter.
Kellen Moore is 2-10 as a head coach.
Saints are 6-6 ATS last 12 games as a road underdog.
Saints are 7-13 ATS in last 20 games coming off a loss.
In seven of last eight games, Saints ran ball for less than 90 yards.
Saints are 0-4 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Saints are 14-4-1 ATS in last 19 NFC South road games.
Buccaneers (7-5)
Tampa Bay lost four of its last six games, after a 5-1 start.
Last eleven games, Tampa Bay is +9 in turnovers.
Bucs are 5-0 when they allow less than 24 points.
Mayfield is 59-61 as an NFL starter, 27-22 with the Bucs.
Bowles is 61-73 as a head coach, 35-32 with Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay is 6-6-1 ATS last 13 games as a home favorite.
Bucs are 5-9 ATS in last 14 games coming off a win.
Last two games, Bucs converted 16-32 third down plays.
Bucs are 5-2 in games decided by six or fewer points.
Over is 4-1 in Tampa Bay’s home games this year.
Tampa Bay (-4) won 23-3 in the Superdome in Week 8
Bucs won six of last seven series games.
Saints won five of their last seven visits to Tampa.
Under is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
Colts (-1.5) @ Jaguars
Colts (8-4)
Indy lost three of last four games, after a 7-1 start.
Colts are 8-0 scoring 29+ points (20-20-20-16 in losses)
Indy is minus-4 in turnovers in losses, +9 in wins.
QB Jones is 33-49-1 is as an NFL starter.
Steichen is 25-21 SU as a head coach
Colts are 4-6 ATS last 10 games as a road favorite.
Under Steichen, Colts are 12-9 ATS as a favorite.
Colts are 3-4 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Colts are 6-1 ATS in last seven AFC South road games.
Colts’ team total: over 8-4.
Jaguars (8-4)
Jacksonville won four of last five games, scoring 29.3 ppg
Jaguars are 8-1 if they allow fewer than 31 points.
Jacksonville is 5-3 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
QB Lawrence is 31-43 as an NFL starter.
Liam Coen is 8-4 as an NFL head coach.
Jaguars are 4-1 SU at home this season.
Jaguars are 17-14 ATS in last 31 games coming off a win.
Jaguars held nine of last 11 opponents under 100 yards rushing.
Last two games, Jaguars converted 6-24 third down plays.
Jaguars are 5-2 ATS in last seven AFC South home games.
Jaguars won four of last five series games.
Colts lost their last ten visits to Jacksonville.
Over is 5-1 in last six meetings.
Titans @ Browns (-4.5)
Titans (1-11)
Tennessee is 0-7 SU/3-4 ATS in last seven games.
Last four games, Titans ran ball for only 79.3 yards/game.
Interim coach McCoy was 28-38 coaching Chargers from 2013-16.
Rookie QB Ward is 1-11 as an NFL starter.
Titans are 2-3 ATS as a road underdog this season.
Titans were held under 300 TY in 10 of 12 games.
Titans are 7-16 ATS in last 23 games as an underdog.
Tennessee is 5-16-1 ATS last 22 games coming off a loss.
Last seven games, Titans are minus-7 in turnovers.
Over is 7-4 in their last eleven games.
Browns (3-9)
Cleveland lost four of its last five games.
Browns are 0-9 when they allow more than 10 points.
Browns haven’t gained more than 278 yards since Week 5.
Rookie QB Sanders is 1-1 as an NFL starter
Stefanski is 44-57 as a head coach.
Browns are 2-7 SU/3-6 ATS in last nine games.
Browns are 2-3 SU/4-1 ATS at home this year.
Cleveland is 7-2 ATS last nine games as a home favorite.
Browns are 8-13 ATS in last 21 games coming off a loss.
Last eight games, Browns are +6 in turnovers.
Browns won last two series games, 27-3/41-35.
Titans won three of their five visits to Cleveland.
Over is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
Commanders @ Vikings (-2.5)
Commanders (3-9)
Commanders are 0-7 SU/1-6 ATS in their last seven games.
Washington lost last two games by a combined four points.
Washington is 0-8 when it allows more than 24 points.
QB Mariota is 36-45 as an NFL starter; Josh Johnson is the backup.
Quinn is 63-58 as an NFL coach.
Commanders allowed 354+ yards in nine of last ten games.
Commanders are 0-5 in games decided by 9 or fewer points.
Opponents’ over/under total: over 8-3 last eleven games.
Washington is 16-25-1 ATS in last 42 games coming off a loss.
Last seven games, Washington is minus-8 in turnovers.
Vikings (4-7)
Vikings lost four in row, six of their last seven games.
Vikings were outscored 49-6 in their last two games.
Unsure who QB will be; #4 QB Wolford might be best one.
Last nine games, Minnesota is minus-17 in turnovers.
O’Connell is 38-26 as an NFL head coach.
Vikings are 5-7 ATS last 12 games as a home favorite.
Five of last six games, Vikings gained less than 270 yards.
Vikings are 8-12-1 ATS in last 21 games coming off a loss.
Last four Minnesota games stayed under the total.
Last six games, Vikings converted only 17 of 67 third down plays.
Vikings won seven of last nine series games.
Washington is 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS in last four visits to the Twin Cities
Over is 6-2 in last eight meetings.
Seahawks (-7) @ Falcons
Seahawks (9-3)
Seahawks won six of their last seven games.
Seattle’s three losses were by 3-4-2 points.
Seahawks held 9 of last 11 opponents under 300 TY.
Darnold is 44-42 as an NFL starter.
MacDonald is 19-10 as a head coach.
Seattle has five wins by 14+ points.
In losses, Seahawks are minus-5 in turnovers; in wins, +5.
Seattle is 7-10-2 ATS last 19 games as a road favorite.
Seattle is 10-4-1 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win
Opponents’ team total: under 8-3-1.
Falcons (4-8)
Atlanta lost six of its last seven games.
Falcons are 1-5 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Atlanta is 1-8 when it allows more than 14 points.
QB Cousins is 85-79-2 as an NFL starter.
Morris is 33-55 as a head coach.
Atlanta is 6-3-1 ATS last 10 games as a home underdog.
Falcons are 10-13-1 ATS last 24 games coming off a loss.
Atlanta went over its team total in its last five games.
Falcons lost 27-24 to the Jets LW, but outgained them 389-269.
Over is 4-1 in last five Atlanta games.
Seattle won five of last seven series games.
Seahawks are 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in last four visits to Atlanta.
Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Bengals @ Bills (-5.5)
Bengals (4-8)
Bengals lost eight of their last ten games.
Bengals are 3-3 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
QB Burrow threw for 261 yards, 2 TD’s in his return from injury LW.
Burrow is 46-32-1 as an NFL starter.
Taylor is 55-62-1 as a head coach.
Bengals covered four of last five games as an underdog.
Cincinnati is 10-7-1 ATS last 18 games as road underdogs.
Bengals are 19-9-1 ATS last 29 games coming off a win.
Bengals are +7 in turnovers in wins, minus-10 in losses.
Under is 3-0 in last three Cincinnati games.
Bills (8-4)
Bills won four of their last six games.
Buffalo scored 26+ points in wins, 20-14-13-19 in losses.
Buffalo is +6 in turnovers in wins, minus-8 in losses.
QB Allen is 91-44 as an NFL starter.
McDermott is 100-56 as an NFL head coach.
Bills are 10-11 ATS last 21 games as a home favorite.
Bills are 14-15-1 ATS in last 30 games coming off a win.
Buffalo is 8-0 when they score more than 20 points.
Last four games, Buffalo is minus-5 in turnovers.
Last two weeks, Bills held foes to 261-166 total yards.
Cincinnati won six of last eight series games.
Bengals won three of their last four visits to Buffalo.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Broncos (-7.5) @ Raiders
Broncos (10-2)
Broncos won their last nine games, last four by 3-3-3-1 points.
Seven of their last eight wins were by 4 or fewer points.
Last three games, Denver ran ball for 84-59-87 yards.
QB Nix is 20-10 as an NFL starter.
Payton is 189-116 as an NFL head coach, 28-19 with Denver.
Denver is 2-6 ATS last eight games as a road favorite.
Denver is 5-4 ATS in its last nine games overall.
Denver is 5-8 ATS in last 13 AFC West road games.
Denver is 10-7 ATS in last 17 games coming off a win.
Under is 7-3 in their last ten games.
Raiders (2-10)
Raiders lost six games in a row, 10 of last 11.
Raiders allowed 13-10 points in their wins
Last six games, Raiders ran the ball for only 48.9 yards/game.
QB Geno Smith is 42-54 as an NFL starter.
Carroll is 183-141-1 as an NFL head coach.
Raiders are 11-18-2 ATS last 31 games as an underdog.
Raiders are 5-6-2 ATS last 13 games as a home underdog.
Las Vegas is 15-10 ATS last 25 AFC West home games.
Raiders are 12-17-1 ATS in last 30 games coming off a loss.
Las Vegas has seven losses by 11+ points this season.
Broncos gained only 188 yards, but beat Raiders 10-7 at home in Week 10.
Denver won last three series games, by 16-10-3 points.
Broncos won 29-19 in Vegas LY, snapping 0-8 skid in road series games.
Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Bears @ Packers (-6.5)
Bears (9-3)
Bears won five in row, nine of last ten games.
Bears are 9-1 scoring 24+ points, 0-2 scoring less.
In wins, Chicago was +20 in turnovers; minus-3 in losses.
Ben Johnson is 9-3 as an NFL head coach.
QB Williams is 14-15 as an NFL starter.
Chicago is 16-22-1 ATS last 39 games as a road underdog.
Chicago is 11-15-1 ATS in last 27 games coming off a win.
Bears are 7-0 when they allow less than 27 points.
Bears are 6-1 in games decided by 5 or fewer points.
Chicago is 5-3 ATS in last eight NFC North road games.
Packers (8-3-1)
Green Bay is 8-0-1 when it scores 23+ points, 0-3 otherwise.
Green Bay scored 10-13-7 points in its losses.
Packers held eight of 12 opponents under 300 TY.
QB Love is 27-20-1 as an NFL starter
LaFleur is 78-41-1 as an NFL head coach.
Packers are 9-7-1 ATS last 17 games as a home favorite.
Packers are 27-19-1 ATS last 47 games coming off a win.
Green Bay is 12-8 ATS in last 20 NFC North home games.
Last three games, Green Bay is +5 in turnovers.
Packers converted 32 of last 63 third down plays.
These teams play again in two weeks, in Chicago.
Packers won 17 of last 19 series games.
Bears are 1-8 SU/2-7 ATS in last nine visits to Lambeau.
Over is 6-4 in last ten meetings.
Rams (-8.5) @ Cardinals
Rams (9-3)
Rams won six of their last seven games.
Rams are 8-0 when they allow less than 26 points.
In their losses, Rams gave up 33-26-31 points.
QB Stafford is 48-28 as the Rams’ starter (122-121-1 overall).
McVay is 97-60 as an NFL head coach.
Last eight games, Rams outscored opponents 147-59 in first half.
Rams are 10-3 ATS in last 13 NFC West road games.
Rams are 17-9 ATS in last 26 games as a favorite.
Rams went over team total in eight of last 11 games.
Rams are 17-9-1 ATS in last 27 games coming off a loss.
Cardinals (3-9)
Cardinals lost four in row, nine of last ten games.
Last three games, Arizona ran ball for 36-55-95 yards.
Cardinals are 0-6 when they allow more than 22 points.
Brissett is 20-40 as an NFL starter.
Gannon is 15-31 as an NFL head coach.
Nine of 12 Arizona games were decided by 7 or fewer points,
Cardinals are 8-6 ATS last 14 games as a home underdog.
Under Gannon, Arizona is 21-13 ATS as an underdog.
Arizona is 24-17 ATS in last 41 games coming off a loss.
Cardinals are 6-14 ATS in last 20 NFC West home games.
Rams won 15 of last 18 series games (14-4 ATS)
Rams won nine of their last 10 visits to Arizona.
Over is 5-3 in last eight meetings.
Texans @ Chiefs (-4.5)
Texans (7-5)
Houston won its last four games, by 7-3-4-4 points.
Texans are 6-0 when they score 20+ points.
Texans held nine of 12 opponents under 300 TY.
Stroud is 25-20 as an NFL starter.
Ryans is 29-21 in as an NFL head coach.
Houston is 13-9 ATS last 22 games as an underdog.
Texans are 13-9-1 ATS last 23 games as a road underdog.
Texans are 12-10-1 ATS last 23 games coming off a win.
Houston is 3-0 in games decided by 11+ points, 4-5 in games decided by 8 or less.
Last nine games, Texans are +12 in turnovers.
Chiefs (6-6)
Chiefs are 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS in last five home games.
Chiefs are 6-1 giving up 20 or less points, 0-5 giving up 21+.
Chiefs are 1-6 in games decided by 7 or less points.
QB Mahomes is 112-32 as an NFL starter.
Andy Reid is 307-169-1 as an NFL head coach
Chiefs are 20-23 ATS last 43 games as a home favorite.
Chiefs are 18-25 ATS last 43 games coming off a loss.
Chiefs held five of last seven opponents under 100 yards rushing.
Last five games, Chiefs team total: under 4-0-1.
Under is 6-1 in last seven Kansas City games.
Chiefs won four in row, 8 of last 10 series games.
Texans are 1-5 SU/2-4 ATS last six visits to Arrowhead.
Over is 5-1-1 in last seven meetings.