Cnotes 2015 NFL Preseason Picks News Trends QB Rotations !

[CNOTES]

AFC East Breakdown


July 24, 2015




It has been a wild offseason for the AFC Eastern Division. Free agent signings, trades and two coaching changes, has brought a lot of attention to this Conference.


Beside the fact that the New England Patriots are coming off their fourth Super Bowl victory in the past 14 years and sixth appearance overall in the big game during that period, the division has had a number of other interesting twists.


History


Odds to win AFC East - per Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
New England Patriots 5/9
Miami Dolphins 7/2
Buffalo Bills 9/2
New York Jets 10/1


AFC East Win Totals - per Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
New England Patriots - 10 (Over -180, Under +160)
Miami Dolphins – 9 (Over +105, Under -125)
Buffalo Bills – 8.5 (Over -130, Under +110)
New York Jets – 7.5 (Over -120, Under +100)


Odds Subject to Change – Updated 7.23.15


The Patriots are dealing with the deflation controversy that has potentially left them without the services of Tom Brady for the first four regular season games. Buffalo Bills coach Doug Marrone opted out of his contract. In the process, Marrone picked up a four million dollar payment because of an unusual clause contained in his contract. The Bills replaced Marrone with former New York Jets head coach Rex Ryan, whose Jets were an unimpressive 4-12 last season.


If that wasn’t enough, the Jets hired their third general manager in the past four years. Add to the mix a very average Miami Dolphins team and who knows how this division will turn out.


Listed below are my notes on all four teams and predicted order of finish.


1) New England Patriots


The New England Patriots have been the class of the division during the past 12 seasons, winning six straight and 11 of the past 12 division titles. Bill Belichick is one of the best coaches in NFL history. He always seems to find a way to put his team in contention. The Patriots will be without Tom Brady for the first four games of the season.


He will be replaced by second-year quarterback, 2014 second round selection Jimmy Garoppolo, who passed for 5,050 yards and 53 touchdowns during his senior season at Eastern Illinois. Belichick has a knack for replacing aging veterans that are asking for a lot of money, with serviceable veteran replacements or younger players.


The Patriots remain the class of the division and should be able to find a way to win their seventh straight division title. Look for the football genius Belichick to have Garoppolo ready for the first four games of the season. I’m not going out on a limb, but I like New England to win the division regardless of the Brady suspension.


2) Buffalo Bills


The Buffalo Bills were 9-7 in 2014 and have high hopes for the upcoming season. They have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. The Bills were fourth in total team defense, third in pass defense and eleventh in rushing defense last season. They upgraded at the skilled offensive positions with the additions of all-pro running back LeSean McCoy and controversial wide receiver Percy Harvin. The big question remains at quarterback. The Bills reached for E J Manuel with the 16th pick in the 2013 draft. This was a terrible and surprising pick. Manuel struggled with accuracy at the college level and continues to do so at the pro level.


The Bills have brought in veterans Matt Cassel and Tyrod Taylor to compete for the starting job. Cassel 33, should be an upgrade over last year’s starter Kyle Orton. Taylor spent the first four years of his career with the Ravens as a backup and has thrown just 35 passes during his career. The Bills would be a serious threat if they had a quarterback. Their defense should be better with new head coach Rex Ryan, but this will not be enough to overcome their deficiency at the quarterback position. That problem will be compounded by a poor offensive line. The Bills should have enough to contend for second place in the division and a Wild card spot in the playoffs.


3) Miami Dolphins


The Miami Dolphins are coming off another average season. They finished third in the conference with an 8-8 record. Starting third year quarterback Ryan Tannehill had a very good season, passing for 4,045 yards with 27 touchdown passes with only 12 interceptions. The Dolphins finished 14th overall in team offense.


The defense finished 12th overall. They struggled against the run, finishing 24th in that category. The addition of defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh should help this unit and ownership is hoping for him to pay immediate dividends since they invested millions in the All-Pro player this offseason.


The Dolphins were lucky to pick up former Louisville wide receiver Devante Parker with the 14th overall pick in this year’s draft. Parker should help improve Miami’s 17th ranked passing attack. Miami finished close to the middle of the pack in overall offensive and defensive statistics last season. They will need to improve on both sides of the ball if they hope to compete for a playoff spot. I expect the Dolphins to finish third in the division. The Fins could surprise but I’m not buying them in what could be the final season for head coach Joe Philbin.


4) New York Jets


The New York Jets are coming off a terrible 4-12 season. They fired head coach Rex Ryan and replaced him with former Arizona Cardinals defensive guru Todd Bowles. Mike Maccagnan takes over for John Idzik as general manager. The Jets are a team in disarray. Maccagnan is their third general manager in the past four years. They have brought back cornerbacks Darrelle Revis, after a two-year absence and Antonio Cromartie who played with the Cardinals last season. The Jets released Percy Harvin and acquired all-pro receiver Brandon Marshall from the Bears to replace him. The nine-year veteran has over 100 receptions in five of his nine seasons.


This is a transition year for the Jets. They could be in for a long season because of their weakness at quarterback. New York drafted Gino Smith in the second round of the 2013 draft. Smith was recently ranked last out of 32 starting quarterbacks in a NFL opinion poll of coaches and talent evaluators. Journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick has been brought in to compete for the starting job, although the Jets will probably want to see if Smith can be a starting NFL quarterback. Bryce Petty was drafted in the fourth round and is probably a few years away from being ready to compete for the starting position. The Jets have made some upgrades, but I cannot see them being competitive in a strong AFC conference with Smith as their starting quarterback. Despite having arguably the best secondary in football, I still expect the Jets to finish last in the AFC East due to the unanswered question mark behind center.

 

[CNOTES]

AFC North camp preview: Ravens restart playoff chase


OWINGS MILLS, Md. -- When the Baltimore Ravens trudged out of the locker room at Gillette Stadium in January following a narrow AFC divisional-round playoff loss to the eventual Super Bowl champion New England Patriots, veteran wide receiver Steve Smith vowed they would be back and that the result would be different the next time.


Seven months later, the Ravens launch their training camp hoping that they had the kind of offseason that propels them to take a step forward in the playoffs instead of regressing. Baltimore has reached the playoffs in six of coach John Harbaugh's seven seasons.


That includes a Super Bowl XLVII win over the San Francisco 49ers, and they are 72-40 in the regular season during that span and 10-5 in the postseason.


Following an offseason where the roster absorbed some losses, including wide receiver Torrey Smith and outside linebacker Pernell McPhee leaving as free agents and defensive tackle Haloti Ngata being traded to the Detroit Lions after a contract dispute, the Ravens are nonetheless confident about where they stand.


"Happy with where we're at and looking forward to where we're going," Harbaugh said during the final day of the Ravens' minicamp in June.


As the Ravens launch their camp, they will have several competitions to monitor at strong safety, tight end and wide receiver. There is a strong likelihood they will have a younger, revamped depth chart with as many as five new starters this season. The goals for training camp are to identify the best possible starting lineup, continue to install the playbooks and build timing and chemistry.


"The training camp is built, so we have the reps built and all the practices built," Harbaugh said. "All the situations are built in, every football formation look that we want to work on. You learn a lot in the OTAs in terms of what you're going to be good at, you think, so you start steering in that direction a little bit more. And we'll try to keep evolving from that, because we're going to learn more as we go, and we'll adjust as we go.


"But I'm looking for the young guys to step up. Our young guys probably get more reps than I can imagine anybody else getting, so we put our young guys in positions to compete for jobs. These rookies are going to have a chance to compete for jobs."


CAMP CALENDAR


July 25: Rookies reported


July 29: Veterans report


July 30: First practice


Aug 19-21: Joint practices at the Philadelphia Eagles


Aug. 24: Camp ends


--Team strength: Linebacker.


Between outside linebackers Elvis Dumervil, Terrell Suggs and Courtney Upshaw and Pro Bowl inside linebacker C.J. Mosley and middle linebacker Daryl Smith, the position is a huge asset to the defense.


--Breakout player: Cornerback Jimmy Smith.


Smith is emerging as a shutdown cover guy. He was signed to a $48 million contract and has recovered from a Lisfranc foot sprain.


--Work in progress: Tight end.


The Ravens remain in flux at tight end where second-year pro Crockett Gillmore hasn't established himself yet as a receiver and rookie Maxx Williams is unproven in terms of durability and blocking.


The Ravens hope the two young players develop into proven pros this fall.

 

[CNOTES]

NFC East camp preview: Cowboys feel primed for title run


OXNARD, Calif. -- Nobody expected the Dallas Cowboys to be considered Super Bowl contenders a year ago.


Heck, most expected them to finish 8-8 or worse and for head coach Jason Garrett to be fired at the end of the season.


Of course, that was before the Cowboys became one of the surprising breakthrough stories of 2014, finishing with a 12-4 record, winning the NFC East and coming within a controversial non-catch by receiver Dez Bryant of reaching the NFC title game for the first time since 1995, the last time they won the Super Bowl.


It comes as no surprise that the Cowboys are considered prime Super Bowl contenders before the 2015 season. They remain the best team in the NFC East and they have ranked just behind the Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers as the cream of the conference.


The Cowboys didn't care what outsiders thought last year and they don't care this year.


They will open training camp this week with the Super Bowl as their goal, but with the primary focus of defining themselves for themselves just as they did a year ago.


"Any coach or player or staff member, if you don't have the goal of winning the Super Bowl you are in the wrong profession," Garrett said. "Everybody has that goal. We define ourselves by what we do. We did that last year. We have to do that again this year. Everybody will understand that really well.


"Don't let other people define you. We define ourselves by what we do. When I did this press conference a year ago, we were probably regarded as a bottom-five or bottom-10 team in the league. One of the best things our team did last year was that we defined ourselves. We didn't listen to any outside forces who said we weren't this or we weren't that. We just went to work every day. We have to do that again. They might think differently of us this year. It really doesn't matter. We define ourselves by what we do. That starts (Tuesday)."


Still there is no question that the Super Bowl is the Cowboys' goal after last season's coming of age campaign and an offseason in which they accomplished almost everything they wanted, save for the acquisition of Vikings running back Adrian Peterson in a trade.


But no one gets everything.


The Cowboys are still on the hunt for a starting running back but every other thing they tried came up roses.


The top priority was retaining Bryant and making him happy. He was signed to a five-year, $70 million contract two weeks ago, ending his threats to boycott the season and putting him on the field for training camp.


"To get him signed and ready to go to start camp is exciting," Garrett said in his first comments since the signing. "He is a great football player but more important he is a great teammate. He is passionate about the game. He is passionate about the team, his teammates. We are excited to see him out there."


Garrett is also happy to avoid the distracting story line of what a Bryant holdout would have brought to training camp.


"I don't think anyone wants those types of things," Garrett said. "You don't want holdouts. You don't want the business of the NFL to creep in as you get close to the season. The business is real. You have to take the emotions out of it. But it's fun to have him back. It's fun to have in him in the fold and on the practice field as we start training camp."


Quarterback Tony Romo had his first healthy offseason in three years and will head into training camp 100 percent for the first time since 2012.


The best offensive line in the NFL got even better with the addition of La'el Collins, an undrafted rookie free agent with first-round talent who could start at left guard.


The defense should be better because of the return of linebacker Sean Lee from injury and the additions of defensive ends Greg Hardy and Randy Gregory and cornerback Byron Jones in the draft and free agency.


The Cowboys got a win when Hardy's NFL suspension for violating the league's personal conduct policy was reduced from 10 games to four.


Cornerback Morris Claiborne, who has been a disappointment since coming to the team with the sixth overall pick in 2012, is also a source of optimism because of a successful return from knee surgery that might allow the Cowboys to play Jones at safety.


"It's all about the production on the field," executive vice president Stephen Jones said in affirming the team's highly productive offseason. "We obviously feel like we got a lot accomplished. We theoretically got done what we felt like we needed to do to make our team better and take the next step. Now we'll see if it happens."


CAMP CALENDAR


July 28: Team reports


July 30: First practice


Aug. 17-18: Joint practices with Rams in Oxnard


Aug. 28: Camp ends


--Team strength: Offensive line.


The Cowboys' offensive line was considered the best in the NFL last year when it placed three players in the Pro Bowl: left tackle Tyron Smith, center Travis Frederick and right guard Zack Martin. They return their entire unit from a year ago while also adding a first-round talent in undrafted rookie free agent La'el Collins, who was considered a top 15 pick before questions about the murder of an ex-girlfriend made him untouchable. Once cleared, Collins signed with the Cowboys and could replace Ron Leary at left guard.


--Breakout player: Defensive tackle Tyrone Crawford.


Crawford had a nice bounce-back season last year after missing the 2013 campaign with a torn Achilles. He replaced Henry Melton in the starting lineup at defensive tackle, recording 33 tackles and three sacks. The Cowboys expect marked improvement in 2015 as Crawford gets more comfortable at defensive tackle. He played defensive end his first two years in the league. He had 37 hurries last year so he has talent to rush up the middle. The key in 2015 is for him to finish those hurries with sacks.


--Work in progress: Running back.


The Cowboys have yet to find a replacement for the departed DeMarco Murray. Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden are the most likely starters at this point. But the team doesn't trust the speedy Randle, who has yet to carry a full load for a full season. McFadden has been injured almost every year and averaged less than four yards per carry the past three seasons with Oakland.


The Cowboys also have no one to get the tough yards in short-yardage situations. They will be looking for options throughout training camp.

 

[CNOTES]

NFC East camp preview: Pressure on Giants


Jul 27, 2015


EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. -- Preliminary forecasts for the next five weeks in northern New Jersey are calling for high levels of heat.


Not that New York Giants head coach Tom Coughlin, his staff or his players will notice. That is because for the team, which reunites at the Quest Diagnostics Training Center for the start of training camp on Thursday, the heat is on -- really on.


They can thank the fact that they have gone three consecutive seasons without a playoff berth, a span in which their won-loss record actually deteriorated.


With last year's 6-10 mark particularly a bitter pill to swallow given how the season unfolded, team co-owner John Mara stood before the media at the end of the season and agreed with a reporter's conclusion that the 2015 campaign carried a "win-or-else" mandate.


With those words echoing weeks after being made, general manager Jerry Reese and Coughlin created perhaps the most highly competitive training camp in their respective regimes, a camp where few jobs are safe.


On offense, all eyes will be on the biggest competition of them all: the offensive line. This unit will, for the first time under Coughlin, have five new starters across the board, and for the third season in a row, a rookie is expected to be one of those starters.


The offensive line combination of rookie Ereck Flowers at left tackle, Justin Pugh at left guard, Weston Richburg at center, Geoff Schwartz at right guard and Marshall Newhouse at right tackle isn't set in stone, according to Coughlin, who is still trying to figure out how to compensate for the absence of injured left tackle Will Beatty.


"Our plans are to continue to try to figure out how this line is going to fall out, who is going to be where," he said at the start of the spring workouts. "We will probably try some different combinations to get there."


Coughlin also didn't rule out the possibility of adding another veteran currently on another team's roster who might shake free during camp cuts as a possibility.


On defense, the Giants are starting from scratch after finishing 29th overall last season. Perry Fewell was replaced by Steve Spagnuolo, who shot to stardom as a first-time NFL coordinator thanks to his 2007 and 2008 Giants defenses finishing as top-10 units both seasons.


Unfortunately for Spagnuolo, defensive ends Michael Strahan, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora and linebackers Antonio Pierce and Kawika Mitchell didn't follow behind him into the doors of the QDTC.


Instead, Spagnuolo is facing the challenge of trying to implement his aggressive, attacking scheme with a group whose question marks include the identities of the starting defensive ends, safeties, and nickel cornerback, and the health of middle linebacker Jon Beason.


While the personnel issues sort themselves out, Spagnuolo does have an idea of the identity he wants his defense to have.


"I think we all can agree in here that if you are going to be good on defense, it needs to be aggressive," he said. "If you look around the league, I think all good defenses in this league function that way. We would like to get to that point as well. How and when and where we will get with all that, we will see as we go."


That is a lot of uncertainty for a team that has its collective feet to the fire, but if there is one thing that Giants fans can expect from the team this year is that they are not going to go down without a fight.


CAMP CALENDAR


July 30: Entire team reports


July 31: First practice


Aug. 11-12: Joint practices with Bengals at Cincinnati


Aug. 27: Camp ends


--Team strength: Running back.


For the first time since the 2007 and 2008 seasons, the Giants have perhaps their most diverse running backs corps, a unit that offers a little bit of everything and whose members can be mixed and matched to various situations. The addition of veteran Shane Vereen gives the corps its missing ingredient: a legitimate threat out of the backfield. Starter Rashad Jennings, who is expected to do the bulk of the work between the 20-yard lines, probably will see most of the between-the-tackles work. Second-year man Andre Williams' role likely will be limited to that of a short-yardage and goal-line back, and Orleans Darkwa will see spot duty. The diversity, along with a hopefully improved offensive line and the return of fullback Henry Hynoski, should go a long way toward boosting the NFL's 23rd-ranked running game from 2014 toward being a top-10 unit.


--Breakout player: Outside linebacker Devon Kennard.


Last season, the fifth-round pick showed flashes of being a pass-rushing force off the edge. Kennard, out of USC, finished third on the team in sacks (4.5) behind defensive ends Jason Pierre-Paul (12.5) and Damontre Moore (5.5). With Pierre-Paul's availability for the 2015 season a glaring question mark, it would not be surprising if defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo calls upon Kennard, the projected starting outside linebacker, to be that pass-rushing threat off the edge.


--Work in progress: Offensive line.


The pectoral injury sustained by left tackle Will Beatty once again made the offensive line a worry for the Giants' coaches.


At the start of OTAs, head coach Tom Coughlin made it clear that the team was planning to look at some different offensive line combinations in training camp, where it will have a chance to see the players with the pads on.


During OTAs, Coughlin and the Giants stuck with a combination that, from left tackle to right tackle, featured Ereck Flowers (first-round draftee), Justin Pugh, Weston Richburg, Geoff Schwartz and Marshall Newhouse.


The Giants did have a visit with Jake Long in June just to gauge the veteran's interest and to see where he was in his rehab from his second torn ACL injury.


Ideally, the Giants would like to stick with what they have, but the problem is their depth at offensive tackle is so thin that should Flowers or Newhouse get injured, it would rock the unit's foundation.


Also worth noting is offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo's response to a question concerning Flowers.


"We like him as a future left tackle, and I'm very confident in him right now," McAdoo said.


He might not have much of a choice.

 

[CNOTES]

AFC North camp preview: Bengals aim to sign Green


Jul 27, 2015


CINCINNATI -- With the Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas contracts setting the wide receiver market for an A.J. Green extension, it is not a question of if the Cincinnati Bengals will get a deal done but when.


And for the Bengals, it can't come soon enough. In a training camp that doesn't have many personnel issues, wrapping up a contract with Green is one of the major issues when drills begin Friday at the team's practice fields adjacent to Paul Brown Stadium.


Contract extensions generated headlines three of the past four Bengals training camps and preseasons. In 2011, cornerback Leon Hall and tackle Andrew Whitworth agreed to extensions the day before the final preseason game. In 2013, it was defensive tackle Geno Atkins' turn, as he signed on Labor Day. Last year, quarterback Andy Dalton got his deal done midway through training camp.


As with Dalton and Atkins' deals, getting Green's done will help set the salary structure for free agency next offseason. Considering the Bengals have $16.85 million in cap room and carried over nearly $8.7 million from last season, they have the room to do it.


Another reason to get it done now is because the Bengals have a large group of key players in the final year of their contracts. Besides Green, other starters going into the final year are Hall, Whitworth, cornerback Adam Jones, tackle Andre Smith, safeties George Iloka and Reggie Nelson along with wide receivers Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones. All of them will not be back, meaning that this is the last shot for a current group that head coach Marvin Lewis built since 2011.


Besides Green's contract, the other focus on the offense remains the same as it was for the past three years: Can Dalton prove he is a big-game quarterback? The Bengals are the first team in NFL history to go one-and-out in the postseason four straight years, and Lewis tied Jim Mora Sr. for the most playoff games coached without a victory (six).


A big key to the offense will be balance. Jeremy Hill led the league in rushing the last nine weeks of the season, but most of that was due to injuries to Jones, tight end Tyler Eifert and Green. By the time the Bengals got to the playoffs, they were one-dimensional because of a lack of receivers.


Said Lewis during minicamp about his expectations for the offense: "Be an aggressive, attacking type of offense. Be physical at the line of scrimmage and so forth. And then we've got to go out and do it play after play after play. That's what is important. We get to do those things once the fall rolls around."


CAMP CALENDAR


July 30: Team reports


July 31: First practice


Aug. 11-12: Joint practices with Giants in Cincinnati


Aug. 19: Camp ends


--Team strength: Running back.


Jeremy Hill is a three-down back who can wear teams down and also possesses an extra bit of speed when he gets to the second level. Giovani Bernard dealt with injuries last year but is a good change-of-pace option who can also catch the ball out of the backfield. Coach Marvin Lewis said he expects both backs to get an equal amount of carries, but Hill will be the starter.


--Breakout player: Cornerback Darqueze Dennard.


Last year's first-round pick saw only 62 defensive snaps in 2014, but that was mostly by design. Cornerback is one of the hardest positions to come in and immediately contribute as a rookie because of a lack of technique, but Lewis said he was pleased with how Dennard approached things during OTAs and minicamp.


--Work in progress: Tight end.


Bengals offensive coordinator Hue Jackson wants to run the ball, and he loves two-tight end sets. However, after third-year pro Tyler Eifert, the Bengals are looking for that second tight end from a field of five rookies or first-year players who have never taken an NFL snap. Tyler Kroft, a third-round pick from Rutgers, is the leader in the clubhouse.


Also in the mix could be second-rounder Jake Fisher, a tackle from Oregon. Not as a long-range option, but Fisher is a nimble athlete and a high school tight end who may be able to work at the spot in a pinch. He did catch some balls during the spring.

 

[CNOTES]

AFC South Breakdown


July 29, 2015


The Indianapolis Colts are the favorites to win their third consecutive AFC South Division title. They are coming off an 11-5 season that included a trip to the AFC Championship game. I'm stating the obvious that the Colts are in a very weak division and will not be challenged by the Texans, Jaguars or Titans.


History


Odds to win AFC South - per Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook


Indianapolis Colts 1/4


Houston Texans 4/1


Tennessee Titans 20/1


Jacksonville Jaguars 20/1


AFC South Win Totals - per Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook


Indianapolis Colts - 10.5 (Over -150, Under +130)


Houston Texans - 8.5 (Over -110, Under -110)


Tennessee Titans - 5.5 (Over -110, Under -110)


Jacksonville Jaguars - 5.5 (Over -150), Under +130)


Odds Subject to Change – Updated 7.29.15


Listed below are my notes on all four teams and predicted order of finish.


1) Indianapolis Colts


The Colts are coming off a very good 2014 season. They won their first two playoff games before losing 45-7 to the Patriots in the conference championship. Indianapolis had the third ranked offense and No.1 ranked passing attack last season. These statistics look impressive, but they are very deceptive. The Colts played a weak regular season schedule that included only six games against teams that made the playoffs. They were able to run up the score against weak opponents and went just 2-4 against teams that made the playoffs.


Quarterback Andrew Luck is entering his fourth NFL season. He had a breakout season in 2014, throwing 40 touchdown passes with only 16 interceptions. Luck is a good signal caller but I cannot put him in the elite category at this time. He has a habit of making poor decisions at key times, a problem that goes back to his college days at Stanford. Indianapolis will play the second easiest schedule in the entire league. Most observers would think this is a positive situation for this team, but is it a two edge sword? The upside is that the Colts should walk away with the division and will have a very good chance of securing home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The downside could be that they may not be fully prepared when facing elite teams during the playoffs.


The Colts should win the division. The question is whether or not Andrew Luck can stop making poor decisions in key situations and if the Colts can figure out a way to improve on their 22nd ranked rushing attack. The offseason addition of running back Frank Gore should help the cause for the Colts.


They will also need to find a way to play better defense against good teams. The Colts gave up an average of 41.5 points per game in their four losses to playoff teams last season. That does not include the 45 points they allowed against the Patriots in the AFC title game.


Indianapolis did sign three defensive free agents albeit older veterans during the offseason but they waited until the third round before selecting their first defensive player in this year’s draft, a decision that could be costly. If the Colts can improve on defense they should contend for a spot in the Super Bowl.


2) Houston Texans


The Houston Texans rebounded with a 9-7 record after a terrible 2-14 season in 2013. They drafted Wake Forest cornerback Kevin Johnson with their first round pick in an effort to improve their 21st ranked passing defense. They also addressed a need on offense by taking two wide receivers with their third and fourth picks.


It made sense that the Texans picked two wide receivers in this year’s draft, but I am wonder who is going to throw the ball to them. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick played in 12 games for the Texans last season and was not resigned. Ryan Mallet who has played in just seven NFL games, inexperienced second-year pro Tom Savage and journeyman Brian Hoyer are competing for the starting quarterback position.


Houston has the third easiest schedule in the league. With their lack of experience and quality at the quarterback position, it will be difficult for this team to match last year’s 9-7 record, despite their soft schedule.


3) Jacksonville Jaguars


Jacksonville is coming off another disappointing season. They finished 3-13 and were rewarded with the third overall pick in the draft. After some gamesmanship leading up to the draft the Jaguars selected Florida defensive end Dante Fowler. Fowler was penciled in as a starter until he tore his ACL during the team’s first minicamp workout.


The Jaguars addressed their need at quarterback in 2014 when they drafted Blake Bortles with the third overall pick. They also added wide receiver targets Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson in the second round of last year’s draft. Jacksonville may have found their starting running back in Alabama’s T.J. Yeldon and they also added two wide receivers in the later rounds to compliment Lee and Robinson.


It will not be difficult for this team to improve on last year’s record, even with the loss of Fowler. Bortles was not very good in the 14 games he appeared in during his rookie season. If Jacksonville can have success running the football with Yeldon and if Bortles lives up to expectations, the Jaguars could surprise a few teams.


4) Tennessee Titans


The Titans were 2-14 last year. When a team wins only two games in a season they usually need upgrades at most positions. They may have helped themselves on offense by picking quarterback Marcus Mariota with the second overall pick in this year’s draft. The drafting of Mariota, along with troubled Missouri wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham provides an upgrade at two important skilled positions.


Mariota was a standout in college and he could be a solid leader for the Titans. Tennessee signed veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to help Mariota adapt to the pro game. Fitzpatrick is a serviceable player and may see some action before the season is over. It is unclear at this point if Mariota will start the season as the number one quarterback or if second year pro Zach Mettenberger will get the call. I do not see this team contending for a playoff spot. If the Titans are smart, they will not rush Mariota and continue to rebuild.

 

[CNOTES]

AFC North Breakdown


July 29, 2015




The AFC North shapes up as one of the most competitive divisions in the entire NFL, which you can see by the future odds listed below.


History


Odds to win AFC North - per Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook


Baltimore Ravens 5/4


Pittsburgh Steelers 2/1


Cincinnati Bengals 9/4


Cleveland Browns 15/1


AFC North Win Totals - per Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook


Baltimore Ravens - 9 (Over -140, Under +120)


Pittsburgh Steelers - 8.5 (Over -125, Under +105)


Cincinnati Bengals - 8.5 (Over -125, Under +105)


Cleveland Browns - 6.5 (Over +140, Under -160)


Odds Subject to Change – Updated 7.29.15


The Steelers, Bengals and Ravens all made the playoffs in 2014. Baltimore upset Pittsburgh in the Wild Card Round and then lost a close game against the Patriots in New England in the Divisional Round. Cincinnati made their usual first round exit in a loss at home to the Colts. The last place Browns finished with an improved 7-9 record.


Listed below are my notes on all four teams and predicted order of finish.


1) Baltimore Ravens


The Baltimore Ravens are one of the best organizations in the NFL. They are led by head coach John Harbaugh who has seven playoff appearances in eight seasons and a Super Bowl victory in 2012. Ozzie Newsome is an elite general manager and a great talent evaluator.


Baltimore almost upset the Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots in last year’s AFC Divisional Round. They were adequate on offense last season but struggled on the defensive side of the ball against the pass. I was surprised they waited until the fourth round to pick their first and only defensive back considering their weakness in this area.


The Ravens have an easier schedule than the Steelers and the Bengals. They added skilled position pieces to their offense by drafting deep threat receiver Breshad Perriman in the first round, tight end Maxx Williams with their second pick and running back Javorius Allen with their second pick of the fourth round. This will give new offensive coordinator Marc Trestman a lot of talent to work with. If the Ravens can resolve their pass defense issues they could be Super Bowl contenders.


2) Pittsburgh Steelers


The Steelers won this division last season but were upset by the Ravens in the opening round of the playoffs. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger had an outstanding 2014 regular season. Big Ben threw for 32 touchdown passes with only nine interceptions and a career high 4,952 passing yards.


The Steelers parted ways with long time defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau after the Steelers finished 18th in total defense and 27th against the pass. They address their defensive issues by selecting Kentucky outside linebacker Bud Dupree with their first round selection and unanimous first team All-American Mississippi cornerback Senquez Golson with their second pick. In total, the Steelers took six defensive players in this year’s draft.


Pittsburgh will have a tough time matching last year’s 11-5 record. They play the toughest schedule in the league, including nine games against playoff teams while playing only four games against teams that had sub 500 records. Their schedule will make it difficult for the Steelers to repeat as Division Champions and they may have a tough time making the playoffs. It will be interesting to see how the defense responds to the absence of Dick LeBeau.


3) Cincinnati Bengals


The Bengals qualified for the playoffs last season with a 10-5-1 record. They have not won a playoff game in 24 years and set an NFL record by losing an opening-round playoff game for the fourth consecutive year. The outcome of that game was not surprising. The Bengals were not a very good statistical team, ranked 15th on offense and 22nd on defense last season.


Cincinnati tried to address their issues on both sides of the ball by selecting five offensive and four defensive players in this year’s draft. They went big in the first three rounds picking two offensive tackles and a tight end with their first three selections.


Marvin Lewis is 0-6 in the playoffs despite qualifying for the playoffs in six of his 12 seasons as head coach. It will be difficult for this team to make the playoffs this season unless they improve on last year’s offensive and defensive statistics. This statistical problem will be compounded by the fact that the Bengals have the league’s second most difficult schedule. If Cincinnati misses the playoffs or suffer another opening-round playoff loss Lewis’ job may be in jeopardy.


4) Cleveland Browns


The Cleveland Browns were an improved team last season. They added to their talent pool with 12 picks in this year’s draft. Cleveland had two first round choices and seem to have made good selections in this year’s draft. They had a total of seven picks in the first four rounds. The Browns are in the process of building a very strong defensive line and were able to add players at a number of other positions including Florida State offensive centre Cameron Erving with their second first round pick.


The problem with the Browns is at quarterback. They signed 12-year journeyman Josh McCown who has never played a full NFL season. Johnny Manziel is starting his second year with the Browns. Drafting Manziel in the first round last year may be another costly mistake, similar to the drafting of two other first round quarterback busts Brady Quinn and Brandon Weeden.


This is general manager Ray Farmer’s second season. He accomplished a lot in this year’s draft. I think this team will have difficulty contending for a playoff spot because of their deficiency at quarterback and as a result of having the ninth most challenging schedule. -

 

[CNOTES]

AFC West Breakdown


July 29, 2015




The AFC West shapes up as an interesting division for the 2015 season. Once again, the Broncos are the favorites to repeat as Division Champions.


At the opposite end of the spectrum are the Oakland Raiders who finished in last place last season with a 3-13 record. In the middle of the pack are two teams that are coming off disappointing seasons.


The Kansas City Chiefs and the San Diego Chargers both missed the playoffs with identical 9-7 records. Both teams made the playoffs in 2013 with the Chargers making it to the Divisional Round.


It will be interesting to see if the Chiefs can regain their 2013 form that included a 9-0 start and if the Raiders can improve on their 3-13 record.


History


Odds to win AFC West - per Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook


Denver Broncos 1/2


Kansas City Chiefs 4/1


San Diego Chargers 5/1


Oakland Raiders 18/1


AFC West Win Totals - per Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook


Denver Broncos - 10 (Over -135, Under +115)


Kansas City Chiefs - 8.5 (Over -110, Under -110)


San Diego Chargers - 8 (Over -140, Under +120)


Oakland Raiders - 5.5 (Over -110, Under -110)


Odds Subject to Change – Updated 7.29.15


Listed below are my notes on all four teams and predicted order of finish.


1) Denver Broncos


The Denver Broncos are coming off another tremendous regular season. They finished with a 12-4 record but were unable to reach the Super Bowl. They lost to the Indianapolis Colts at home as a 9.5 point favourite in the Divisional Round.


Peyton Manning returns for his fourth season with the Broncos. Manning is one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history, despite having only one Super Bowl win to his credit.


Surprisingly, the Broncos parted ways with one of the league’s best coaches John Fox, who led the Broncos to a 46-18 record and four division titles during his four year tenure. The departure of Fox was based on philosophical differences on the offensive side of the ball between Fox and general manager John Elway. Fox is being replaced by former Houston Texans head coach Gary Kubiak. The Broncos were good on both sides of the ball last season, finishing third in the league on defense and fourth in the league in offense.


Denver may have pulled off the steal of the draft by picking Missouri consensus first-team All- American and SEC Defensive Player of the Year Shane Rae with the 23rd pick. They improved themselves on the offensive line by picking two offensive linemen and Ohio State tight end Jeff Heuerman in the next three rounds. These selections should help the Broncos improve their seventh ranked rushing offense and help Peyton Manning’s passing attack. The Broncos are loaded at key positions.


There are two pressing questions about this team. Will Peyton Manning have enough left in the tank after fading late last season because of an apparent leg injury and will John Elway’s coaching change be the right move?


If this team stays healthy and if Manning can return to form, the Broncos should win the division easily, making them my early AFC choice to make it to the Super Bowl.


2) Kansas City Chiefs

Andy Reid starts his third season as head coach of the Chiefs after 14 years as the main man in Philadelphia. Reid had success in Philadelphia, taking them to five NFC title games and one Super Bowl appearance.


The Chiefs are 11-12 since getting off to that 9-0 start in 2013. Kansas City has quarterback issues. They ranked 29th in pass offense last season and 25th in overall offense. The team added free agent wide receiver Jeremy Maclin and drafted two wide receivers in an effort to help unimpressive quarterback Alex Smith. Kansas City are counting on veteran running back Jamal Charles to carry the rushing load, even though his production slipped last season. The Chiefs did not draft a running back in this year’s draft.


Coach Reid reminds me of former Kansas City coach Marty Schottenheimer. Both have had regular season and playoff success but neither has won a Super Bowl. Reid has the reputation of being out coached in big games.


This team could compete for a Wildcard spot or be worse than last year’s 9-7 record. Relying on an aging Charles and not drafting a running back in this year’s draft may be a costly mistake.


3) San Diego Chargers


I have the Chargers and Chiefs ranked exactly the same. Phillip Rivers is a better quarterback than Alex Smith. I am concerned with San Diego’s 1-3 late collapse last season, after opening with a 5-1 record. The Bolts moved up two spots in this year’s draft to get Doak Walker Award winner and Heisman Trophy runner-up Melvin Gordon to help improve their 30th ranked rushing attack. I like the addition of hard hitting Miami linebacker Denzel Perryman with the 48th selection. Some observers had him rated as a late first round pick. This pick should help the Chargers 26th ranked rushing defense.


The Chargers should be in the mix for a Wildcard spot. The addition of Gordon will help their running game and free up their passing attack. If they can find a way to stop the run, the Bolts could improve on their 9-7 record.


4) Oakland Raiders


The Oakland Raiders have won 11 regular season games during the past three seasons. They are excited about Fresno State second-year quarterback Derek Carr. The Raiders had the fourth pick in this year’s draft. They seem to have made a solid selection in wide receiver Amari Cooper. Cooper is coming off an outstanding career at Alabama and seems to be a solid citizen. He won the Biletnikoff Award and was a unanimous First Team All-American in 2014.


General Manager Reggie McKenzie has been given mixed grades on the rest of this year’s draft. They snagged another weapon for Carr in the third round, using that pick to draft Miami tight end Clive Walford. McKenzie also traded down in the later rounds of the draft in order to pick up extra selections. I like this strategy for a team that needs an upgrade in talent at most positions.


McKenzie has been the Raiders General Manager since 2012. He needs to have some of his draft picks step up if this team is going to improve on last year’s 3-13 record. I am not sold on Carr at this point. This team will finish last in the division. The only interest I have in the Raiders is to see if they go over or under the 5.5 win total.

 

[CNOTES]

NFC North Breakdown


July 31, 2015




NFC North The Green Bay Packers are the best team in the NFC North and should win their fifth consecutive North Division title without being challenged. The intrigue should come from the other three teams in the division as a result of key changes to the Bears and Lions and the controversy surrounding the Minnesota Vikings.


History


Odds to win NFC North - per Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook


Green Bay Packers 1/4


Detroit Lions 11/2


Minnesota Vikings 8/1


Chicago Bears 12/1


NFC North Win Totals - per Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook


Green Bay Packers - 11 (Over +110, Under -130)


Detroit Lions - 8.5 (Over +120, Under -140)


Minnesota Vikings - 7.5 (Over -145, Under -125)


Chicago Bears - 7 (Over +130, Under -150)


Odds Subject to Change – Updated 7.31.15


Listed below are my notes on all four teams and predicted order of finish.


1) Green Bay Packers


The Green Bay Packers were 12-4 last season and just missed out on a trip to the Super Bowl. They had a commanding 19-7 lead with approximately four minutes remaining in the NFC Championship against Seattle before unravelling and eventually losing in overtime. The Packers will have a chance to avenge that loss in Week 2 from Lambeau Field.


The Packers were a respectable sixth in the league in total offense. They ranked 15th in the league on defense and 23rd against the run. Their inability to stop the run was Green Bay’s Achilles heel in that game against the Seahawks. They allowed Seattle to run for 194 yards with Marshawn Lynch picking up 157 yards on 25 carries. The unit took a hit when they lost nose tackle B.J. Raji for the season but he’s expected to be fully healthy this fall.


The Packers upgraded their defense by picking cornerbacks Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins with their first two picks and added linebacker Jake Ryan in the fourth round. They are hoping these additions along with last year’s number one pick safety Ha’Sean Clinton-Dix will improve their overall defense.


There is no question the Packers are Super Bowl contenders. Quarterback Aaron Rogers may be the best gun slinger in the league. Green Bay can beat you in the air and on the ground. General Manager Ted Thompson is one of the best in the business and he’s done a great job addressing some of the Packers weaknesses on defense this off-season and made a great selection in the third round by adding Stanford receiver Ty Montgomery to a potent group of receivers.


The Packers led the league in scoring last season averaging 30.4 points per game. If the additions they made with their high draft picks the past two seasons develop this team has a very good chance of winning the Super Bowl. They open with four of their first six games at home. If Green Bay can win their first two games on the road against the Bears and at home against the Seahawks they have a great chance to start the season with a 6-0 record.


2) Chicago Bears


The Marc Trestman era was short lived in Chicago. Chicago fired the second-year coach after Trestman guided the team to a 5-11 record last season. The Bears went in a completely different direction this time by hiring veteran coach John Fox. They made a smart move grabbing Fox after four successful seasons in Denver. Fox is a detailed oriented coach that looks at all aspects of his team’s preparation.


QB Jay Cutler returns for his seventh season in Chicago and he was ranked 23rd in QBR ratings in 2014. His ability to make the right decision at the right time is non-existent. Many believe it will be a miracle if Fox is able to get this team into contention for a playoff spot with Cutler at the helm.


First year GM Ryan Pace quickly put his stamp on this franchise by trading All-Pro wide receiver Brandon Marshall in a surprise move. The Bears replaced Marshall by using their first round pick to select exceptional wide receiver Kevin White out of West Virginia. Chicago also added running back Jeremy Langford with their fourth round selection to compliment stud running back Matt Forte. They also solved a long-term problem at safety by signing free agent Antrel Rolle from the New York Giants.


Chicago definitely upgraded their talent in this year’s draft and through free agency. They selected athletic players in the draft in an effort to turn this franchise around. All six picks were from elite NCAA programs. Pace gets an “A” grade from me in his first NFL draft.


Fox will have this team playing better all-around football and you can count on them being well prepared for each game. If they can find a way to run the football and keep Cutler’s passing game to a minimum this team has a solid chance to improve on their 5-11 record. Look for this team to be ready for their opener at home against the Packers.


3) Minnesota Vikings


The Minnesota Vikings are coming off a difficult year after running back Adrian Peterson was suspended for most of last season. Peterson recently agreed to return to the team despite what he felt was a lack of support from the Vikings during his legal problems. It will be interesting to see if he can regain his form at the advanced age of 30.


Minnesota improved to 7-9 last season after winning just five games in 2013. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is getting a lot of positive attention because of his improved completion rating at the end of last season. The numbers may not tell the whole storey because Bridgewater faced three teams that missed the playoffs during that stretch and threw for only 138 yards in a game against the Panthers. He is improving, but let’s see what happens against good teams in meaningful games.


I like what the Vikings did in the first three rounds of this year’s draft with the addition of three defensive players to an improving defense. They selected speedy cornerback Trae Waynes with their first pick linebacker Eric Kendricks to play with last year’s number one pick linebacker Anthony Barr in the second round and added defensive end Danielle Hunter with their third selection.


The Vikings spent a lot of high draft picks trying to build a dominant defense that will eventually put them into contention for a run at the Super Bowl. I am not sure if Bridgewater will ever be an elite quarterback, but if the defensive talent develops the way I think it should this team could contend for a playoff spot despite having the 12th most difficult schedule. The return of Peterson should only help Bridgewater develop plus the acquisition of WR Mike Wallace from the Dolphins could help stretch the field.


4) Detroit Lions


Detroit made it to the playoffs last season and almost pulled off a first round upset against a very good Cowboys team. They took a big step backward when they were unable to resign Pro-Bowl defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh.


It is going to be difficult for the Lions to make the playoffs this season after overachieving in 2014. The Lions are talented on defense but lack a front line starting quarterback. I never felt that overrated Matt Stafford was an elite quarterback and that was confirmed last season with his 22rd quarterback ranking last among quarterbacks that made the 2014 playoffs.


The Lions drafted well this year. They stole Nebraska running back Ameer Abdullah in the second round. Abdullah is a game breaker and a difference maker. They also drafted offensive guard Laken Tomlinson in the first round to fill a pressing need on the offensive line and selected defensive tackle Gabe Wright in the fourth round to help fill the void left by the departure of Suh. They improved themselves through free agency by adding second tier players.


This team won 11 games last season. The Lions will be hard pressed to go 8-8 with their lack of production at the quarterback position and the huge loss of Suh. They start the season with three out of four games on the road and play the Broncos in their only home game during that stretch. I have seen over/under win totals of eight at some sportsbooks and it’s fair to say the oddsmakers seem to agree with my assessment of the Motor City club.

 

[CNOTES]

NFC East Breakdown


August 4, 2015


In my opinion the NFC East is the most interesting division in the NFL. I cannot wait to see how it unfolds.


The Philadelphia Eagles were 10-6 the past two seasons and made wholesale changes to their roster. It will be fascinating to see if Chip Kelly has success with this new look Eagles team or if they take a step backward.


The Cowboys are coming off a very good season and their fans have every right to be optimistic.


Add to the mix a Giants team that has missed the playoffs for the past three seasons and the Redskins with their quarterback issue and this division should provide a lot of excitement throughout the entire year.


Odds to win NFC East - per Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook


Dallas Cowboys 11/10


Philadelphia Eagles 7/5


New York Giants 9/2


Washington Redskins 15/1


NFC East Win Totals - per Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook


Dallas Cowboys - 9.5 (Over -115, Under -105)


Philadelphia Eagles - 9.5 (Over +120, Under -140)


New York Giants - 8 (Over -120, Under +100)


Washington Redskins - 6 (Over -135, Under +115)


Odds Subject to Change – Updated 8.4.15


Listed below are my notes on all four teams and predicted order of finish.


1) Dallas Cowboys


The Cowboys are coming off a very successful 12-4 season and a trip to the Divisional Playoffs, which ended with a tough loss to Green Bay. Tony Romo had his best season in 2014 and the highest quarterback rating in the league.


Dallas were forced to make some difficult off-season decisions including not resigning 2014 league rushing leader DeMarco Murray. They had to make that move in order to resign wide receiver Dez Bryant.


Dallas has an exceptional offensive line and feel they can plug in almost any running back to do the job. We are going to find out if the Cowboys are right. They will be going with disappointing seven-year veteran Darren McFadden as their featured back. Third-year pro Joseph Randle will also compete for the starting job.


I am sure Cowboys owner Jerry Jones realized that his team was not going to contend for the Super Bowl unless they improved last year’s 26th ranked passing defense. They addressed that need by selecting Connecticut cornerback Byron Jones with their first pick in this year’s draft and took a chance on highly regarded and troubled defensive end Randy Gregory in the second round. They also signed talented free agent defensive end Greg Hardy from Carolina who will miss the first four games of the season due to suspension.


Dallas did not draft a running back in this year’s draft despite the loss of Murray. It will be interesting to see if their arrogance about slotting in any running back behind their great offensive line will be a mistake. If the Cowboys are able to receive the same production from Romo as they did last season and if Gregory and Hardy can stay out of trouble this team could be playing in February.


We will find out how good the Cowboys are early in the season. They open at home against the Giants and then travel to Philadelphia for a Week 2 matchup against the Eagles.


2) Philadelphia Eagles

Head coach Chip Kelly made some wild moves in the off-season. Most teams coming off consecutive 10-6 seasons try to make improvements by adding pieces to the lower end of their roster. Not Kelly. He decided his team was not going to get to the next level with last year’s roster.


In a surprise move the Eagles traded starting quarterback Nick Foles to the Rams for quarterback Sam Bradford and also traded their number one running back LeSean McCoy to the Bills. The Eagles were unable to re-sign wide receiver Jeremy Maclin who was coming off a career best 85 receptions for 1,318 yards. They did not re-sign five-year safety Nate Allen.


Philadelphia may be taking a gamble going with Bradford as their starter. The first overall pick in 2010 missed all of last season with a torn ACL, played in only seven games in 2013 and 10 games in 2011. Philadelphia signed free agent running back DeMarco Murray to replace McCoy and drafted USC’s diminutive receiver Nelson Agholor in the first round to replace Maclin. The Eagles drafted defensive back Eric Rowe with their second pick and added a pair of former Seattle defensive backs Byron Maxwell and Walter Thurmond via free agency to help their 28th ranked defense.


It will be interesting to see if Kelly’s moves are enough to put the Eagles into Super Bowl contention. You never know what can happen when a team makes sweeping changes. Philadelphia has one important factor in their favor, which is the 10th easiest schedule in the league.


3) New York Giants


The New York Giants are coming off two consecutive losing seasons. They have not made the playoffs since their 2012 Super Bowl upset win against the New England Patriots. Their offense was respectable last season, but their 29th ranked defense cost them any chance of making the playoffs.


The Giants may have surprised a few people by waiting until the second round in this year’s draft to bolster their defense. Rather than spending their first draft choice on a defensive player they added 329 pound offensive tackle Ereck Flowers to solidify the offensive line. After drafting Flowers they traded up into the second round to grab Alabama safety Landon Collins. Collins was a projected first round pick that fell to New York in the second round. The Giants added two more defensive players with their next two picks. The only noteworthy free agent signing was former Patriots running back Shane Vereen.


New York have some question marks heading into this season. They are solid at wide receiver with offensive Rookie of the Year Odell Beckham Junior and at QB with 11-year veteran Eli Manning running the show.


The Giants may have been dealt a big blow if defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul does not recover from the loss of his right index finger and broken right thumb suffered in a fireworks accident. There are rumors that Pierre-Paul may have lost more than one finger and that he may be lost for the season. New York also lost starting offensive tackle Will Beatty who suffered an injury to his chest while weight training.


Tom Coughlin is a very good coach, but needs talent in order to compete in the NFC East Division. It will be difficult for the Giants to contend for a playoff spot if Pierre-Paul and Beatty are not available for the entire season.


4) Washington Redskins


Washington are coming off a 4-12 season and have managed to win just seven games during the past two years. Jay Gruden starts his second year as head coach with a lot of question marks surrounding this team. The most concern has to involve 4th year quarterback Robert Griffin. RG3 is coming off two injury plagued seasons after he burst onto the scene in 2012. He was a dominant player in his rookie season until he injured his knee. Griffin played in only seven games last season and has not been able to match his 2012 success.


The Redskins were better statistically last season in some areas than their 4-12 record would suggest. They finished 13th in total offense and 20th in total defense, but were 30th in points allowed. Washington may be heading in the right direction in overall team talent after drafting 10 players in this year’s draft. They went big in the first two rounds selecting Iowa offensive lineman Brandon Scherff with the fifth overall pick and Mississippi State defensive end Preston Smith early in the second round. Rookie general manager Scot McCloughan added five free agents to their defense including three linemen.


It will be interesting to see if McCloughan’s moves pay off. Their biggest problem remains at quarterback. Griffin has great athletic ability, but lacks in other areas. His biggest deficiency is his inability to pick up secondary receivers when his primary receiver is covered. As a result, it did not take long for defensive coordinators to take advantage of a less mobile RG3. If Griffin is unable to improve this part of his game it will be his last season playing for the Redskins.


The Redskins have made a number of key roster changes. I can see them improving on last year’s record, but not enough to challenge for a playoff spot.

 

[CNOTES]

NFC South Breakdown


August 10, 2015




The NFC South finished in an unusual way last season. The Carolina Panthers overcame a sluggish start to win the division with a 7-8-1 record. The Panthers became only the second team in NFL history to qualify for the playoffs with a losing record after playing a 16 game schedule.


The division also saw the preseason favorite New Orleans Saints miss the playoffs for the second time in three years, the third place 6-10 Atlanta Falcons fire their head coach and the last place 2-14 Buccaneers qualify for the first overall pick in this year’s draft.


History


Odds to win NFC East - per Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook


New Orleans Saints 19/10
Carolina Panthers 19/10
Atlanta Falcons 2/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7/1


NFC East Win Totals - per Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook


New Orleans Saints - 9 (Over +120, Under -140)
Carolina Panthers - 8.5 (Over +105, Under -125)
Atlanta Falcons - 8 (Over -140, Under +120)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 6 (Over +100, Under -120)


Odds Subject to Change – Updated 8.10.15


Listed below are my notes on all four teams and predicted order of finish.


1) Carolina Panthers


Carolina’s 2014 season can be looked at in a positive and negative way. They finished with a losing record, but were able to make the playoffs by winning their last four games of the regular season and won their first round playoff matchup against Arizona before showing some fight in a loss to Seattle in the Divisional round.


The Panthers defense impressed down the stretch. They allowed 10.75 points per game during their season ending four game winning streak and 12.17 PPG over their last six regular season games.


Carolina were above average on offense last season, led by four-year quarterback Cam Newton who has become a positive force with the Panthers. Newton’s 20th ranked quarterback rating does not tell the whole story. He was a big part of Carolina’s 7th ranked rushing offense, running for 539 yards and a 5.2 rushing average in 14 games.


The Panthers had five picks in this year’s draft. They used one of those selections to draft Michigan receiver Devin Funchess in the second round. Some experts had Funchess ranked as a possible first round pick, but his 4.7 second time in the 40 yard dash at the NFL combine seemed to be the reason why he fell to the Panthers in the second round. They used their first pick to select versatile linebacker/safety Shaq Thompson to shore up their defense and acquired free agent veterans Ted Ginn, Michael Oher and Alan Ball to fill key positions.


Despite having the 16th ranked offense in 2014 the Panthers scored over 30 points in nine different games. With the addition of Thompson to what I think should be a dominant defense, combined with the 6th easiest schedule in the league, Carolina should win this division for the second consecutive year.


2) New Orleans


New Orleans are coming off a disappointing 7-9 season. It was an unusual season for the Saints from an offensive and defensive perspective. They lead the league in total offense (411 YPG) and finished 31st on defense.


General Manager Mickey Loomis tried to address the team’s defensive issues by spending six of their nine draft choices on defensive players. The Saints made one of the biggest off-season trades when they acquired Seattle’s two-time Pro Bowl centre Max Unger and a first-round pick for star tight end Jimmy Graham and a fourth round selection. They signed free agent 2013 Pro Bowl running back C. J. Spiller who played with the Bills for the past five seasons and former Patriots free agent cornerback Brandon Browner to help improve the defense.


The Saints used Seattle’s first round pick to select Clemson linebacker Stephone Anthony and picked Colorado State quarterback Garrett Grayson in the third round. Although New Orleans are currently set at quarterback I think Grayson was one of the steals in this year’s draft. He threw for 4,006 yards with 32 touchdown passes against only seven interceptions in his senior year. With Drew Brees still a few years away from retirement the Saints can afford to be patient with their young quarterback.


It appears the Saints have decided to run a more balanced offense to take the pressure off their defense and Brees. The additions of Unger, Spiller and first round pick offensive tackle Andrus Peat should help them achieve this goal. If the offense can run the ball and if the defense improves the Saints should be in the mix for a playoff spot.


3) Atlanta Falcons


The Atlanta Falcons had a 13-3 record in 2012 under head coach Mike Smith. The NFL is tough on coaches and after two consecutive losing seasons the Falcons replaced Smith with Seattle assistant coach Dan Quinn.


Quinn is walking into a pretty good situation. The Falcons have the league’s easiest schedule and general manager Thomas Dimitroff is coming off an excellent draft. Their first three selections are projected starters and could become impact players.


The Falcons moved quickly in the draft to upgrade their 32nd ranked defense by selecting Clemson star Vic Beasley at number eight overall. Beasley is an outstanding pass rusher and has a chance to become a Pro-Bowl player. Atlanta took cornerback Jalen Collins who dropped to the second round because of concerns surrounding a foot injury and three failed drug tests. Dimitroff was lucky to acquire Indiana running back Tevin Coleman in the third round. Colman was the second leading NCAA rusher in 2014 with 2,036 yards and I expect him to be the starting running back for the Falcons. Atlanta re-signed a number of free agents from last year’s team and added a few fringe free agents from other teams.


The Falcons are coming off a 6-10 season and I was not in agreement with the firing of Smith. Although he was 0-4 in playoff appearances, his 56-24 record during his first five seasons in Atlanta should have earned him another season as head coach.


Atlanta should be able to move the ball on a consistent basis. It will be interesting to see if they can stop anyone. They open at home against Philadelphia and then play back-to-back road games against the Giants and Dallas. If they can avoid being swept in their first three games they should contend for a playoff spot.


4) Tampa Bay


Tampa Bay finished last overall (2-14) in the NFL last season under first-year head coach Lovie Smith, which put them in position to draft the first overall pick in this year’s draft. There were early discussions about which quarterback the Buccaneers would select but that conversation ended when they drafted Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston first.


After selecting Winston the Buccaneers used both of their second round picks to protect him. The club went with Penn State offensive tackle Donovan Smith with their first pick of the second round and drafted Hobart & William Smith center Ali Marpet with the 61st overall selection. Tampa drafted two small targets for Winston in the fifth and sixth rounds to compliment veteran receiver Vincent Jackson and second-year stud Mike Evans. This team did not make a splash in free agency. They picked up a few players that may fill some of their needs. The Buccaneers will have to depend on their 2015 draft choices if they hope to improve on last year’s record.


Winston is not a slam dunk franchise impact player. His biggest problem is similar to his predecessor at Florida State E. J. Manuel. Both quarterbacks have accuracy issues with their mid-range throws. In addition to his accuracy problem Winston is trying to change his long throwing motion. This will be very difficult to accomplish and should have been taken into consideration by the Buccaneers scouting staff before making Winston the number one overall pick.


The Buccaneers did not make enough upgrades to compete for a playoff spot. I think they made a big mistake drafting Winston with the first overall pick. He was a risky selection because of his lack of accuracy, elongated throwing motion and off-field issues. I will be surprised if he becomes a frontline NFL quarterback and I expect him to struggle in his rookie season.

 

[indiana]

C/note............always look forward to your thoughts and write ups.............BOL for all your action this season............indy

 

[CNOTES]

Thanks Indy........

 

[CNOTES]

Preseason Week 1 Essentials


August 10, 2015


The NFL preseason gets a bad rap.


Sure, most veterans take only one game seriously and we’ll all be ready to be done with it before the month is up, but don’t sleep on its charms.


In the Hall of Fame game alone, Steelers LB Ryan Shazier and RB/WR Dri Archer attempted to atone for rough rookie years by attacking the first available opportunity. Minnesota showcased impressive depth and saw intriguing rookie WR/KR Stefon Diggs back up what he’s been doing in practices with an electrifying punt return on Sunday’s most memorable play.


There will be reasons to tune in for every single preseason contest even if you abstain from getting in any action.


It’s a misconception that trying to profit of the preseason is akin to throwing darts. You can do well if you isolate games where the coaching staffs have different agendas in regards to playing time or what they’re schematically looking to accomplish, not to mention general mismatches in terms of personnel depth.Here’s how Week 1 shakes out:


Thursday, Aug. 13


New Orleans at Baltimore (BAL -3/37.5): The Saints have taken the cautious approach with Marques Colston, Brandin Cooks and newly acquired C.J. Spiller, so they’re all likely out. Drew Brees didn’t play in last year’s preseason opener, yet New Orleans still beat St. Louis 26-24 behind Luke McCown, who returns as the primary backup. Baltimore welcomes Matt Schaub to the party, looking to ease concerns about his uneven play in camp thus far. The Ravens were 4-0 last preseason.


Green Bay at New England (NE -3/38): A focused Tom Brady has been brilliant in practice, clearly locking in early in an attempt to press forward. Despite that, this preseason is all about getting Jimmy Garoppolo ready to play in Week 1. Bill Belichick’s strategy will reveal itself some here, but it’s worth noting that the Patriots have had more players unavailable due to injury than most at this early stage and just cut veteran backup QB Matt Flynn, opting for Ryan Lindley. The Packers have lost their preseason opener in five consecutive seasons.


N.Y. Jets at Detroit (DET -3/37): The Todd Bowles era gets underway, but his Jets defense has already had bad luck with injuries and off-field issues. QB Geno Smith has looked sharper, but don’t expect more than a cameo from him and new No. 1 WR Brandon Marshall. The Lions saw Matthew Stafford dominate this weekend’s scrimmage with brilliant throws, but backups Kellen Moore and Dan Orlovsky combined for three picks and no touchdowns. They’ll do the bulk of the work here.


Miami at Chicago (PK/37): Quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s continued improvement has been a positive sign considering the Dolphins just gave him more guaranteed money in the hope he’ll be their most productive quarterback since Dan Marino. The Bears are counting on Jay Cutler bouncing back from last season’s implosion and won’t expose him much, if at all, this early. Still, with coordinator Adam Gase installing a new offense and Vic Fangio implementing a 3-4 defense, we’ll see whether this bunch acclimates to change quickly.


Washington at Cleveland (CLE -2/37.5): Controversially divisive signal-callers Robert Griffin III and Johnny Manziel get more attention and scrutiny than even Tim Tebow, so this one is must-see TV. Both are expected to play, but it’s likely that Manziel gets much more time here since RGIII is slated to start opposite Josh McCown. Manziel put together an improved, eye-opening performance in this past weekend’s scrimmage.


Dallas at San Diego (SD -3.5/37.5): Count on Tony Romo and Philip Rivers wearing baseball caps throughout the duration of this one. Young players will be on the field for both sides throughout most of this one, so not even veteran backups Brandon Weeden nor Kellen Clemens should see much action. Instead, this QB battle will pit San Diego’s Chase Rettig and Brad Sorensen against Dallas’ Dustin Vaughan and Jameill Showers. The Chargers beat the Cowboys 27-7 in last year’s preseason opener.




Friday, Aug. 14


Tennessee at Atlanta (ATL -2.5/38): The Falcons are nursing multiple injuries and have no desire to expose Matt Ryan, so this is all about Marcus Mariota’s debut. Having drawn rave reviews so far, he can really get them riled up in Nashville if he’s sharp out of the gate.


Carolina at Buffalo (BUF -2.5/35.5): While Cam Newton may not play for the Panthers, new Bills coach Rex Ryan is going to need EJ Manuel, Matt Cassel or Tyrod Taylor to break through. None has managed to gain much separation thus far.


Pittsburgh at Jacksonville (PK/36): After scoring just three points against the Vikings, offensive coordinator Todd Haley should have Ben Roethlisberger available. Backup Bruce Gradkowski remains out with a shoulder injury, so the Jags should still get a heavy dose of Landry Jones, who lacked a pocket presence and command of the offense on Sunday. Word is Jacksonville QB Blake Bortles has looked impressive in camp thus far.


N.Y. Giants at Cincinnati (CIN -3/37.5): Veteran head coach Tom Coughlin led New York to 5-0 preseason mark in 2014, but then saw his team collapse to a 6-10 disaster. He may not be too interested in keeping the streak as a result, but it’s likely that winning this opener will hinge on the shoulders of new acquisition Ricky Stanzi, out to prove he should stick as the team’s third QB. The Bengals are looking for ex-Alabama star A.J. McCarron to continue displaying growth and lock up the top backup job to Andy Dalton.


St. Louis at Oakland (OAK -1/35.5): The two franchises who once shared Los Angeles are thrown together to open their seasons amid speculation that relocation may be in the immediate future. Improvement should also be in the cards, as both teams have promising young talent that should be on display here.


Denver at Seattle (SEA -5.5/36): Expect Peyton Manning to play at least a series against the two-time defending NFC champs, who provide a nice early measuring stick. Brock Osweiler is one of the more competent backup QBs and helped end Seattle's nine-game preseason winning streak in last year's opener. The Seahawks are 10-2 in preseason play over the past three seasons, which is why they opened up as the biggest chalk of Week 1.




Saturday, Aug. 15


San Francisco at Houston (HOU -3/35): The 49ers are basically starting over under new head coach Jim Tomsula, moving on from Jim Harbaugh, Frank Gore and multiple key defensive leaders. Houston has to pick a starter between QBs Ryan Mallett and Brian Hoyer. Promising third-stringer Tom Savage is likely to get the bulk of the snaps here.


Tampa Bay at Minnesota (N/A): Second-year QB Teddy Bridgewater looked sharp in his lone series, so with Adrian Peterson expected to sit out the entire preseason, all eyes will be on his continued development. Jameis Winston has the Bucs excited thus far in camp, particularly in red-zone drills. There will be lots of eyes on this one.


Kansas City at Arizona (AZ -2.5/36): The Chiefs are looking for new offensive weapons to step up, but Andy Reid has never put much emphasis on these exhibition games beyond the third one. Bruce Arians is 2-for-2 in preseason openers, but has dealt with a host of injuries. Since Tyrann Mathieu already almost broke Carson Palmer in practice, it's hard to imagine the 35-year-old coming back from a second ACL tear plays much this month. Drew Stanton has the backup job locked up, but Chandler Harnish, Logan Thomas and rookie Phillip Sims are looking to stick as No. 3.




Sunday, Aug. 16


Indianapolis at Philadelphia (PHI -3.5): With the spotlight to themselves, we’ll get to see what the heavily scrutinized Chip Kelly and Chuck Pagano bring to the table in this first installment. The Eagles want to play fast above all else and averaged an NFL-best 32.7 points per game last preseason. Sam Bradford is likely to make his first in-game appearance since tearing his ACL in the third of last year’s exhibitions. Mark Sanchez, Matt Barkley and Tebow will entertain the country one way or another. Count on that.

 

[CNOTES]

Ravens WR Smith to retire after 2015


August 10, 2015


OWINGS MILLS, Md. (AP) Ravens wide receiver Steve Smith says he will retire at the end of the 2015 season, his 15th in the NFL.


The five-time Pro Bowler announced Monday that he will walk away from the game after the second season of a three-year contract with Baltimore.


Smith says, ''I feel like it's time. My body feels great, but not everybody gets this opportunity.''


Smith said he made his decision in April, not long after he caught 79 passes for 1,065 yards and six touchdowns in his first season with the Ravens.


He is one of 12 players in league history to record 900 catches, 13,000 receiving yards and 70 touchdown receptions.


The 36-year-old played the first 13 seasons of his career with Carolina. He is the Panthers' all-time leading receiver.

 

[CNOTES]

Patriots release QB Flynn, sign Lindley


August 10, 2015


FOXBOROUGH, Mass. (AP) Still unsure of the status of Tom Brady and with the preseason opener coming up, the New England Patriots released veteran quarterback Matt Flynn on Monday and signed Ryan Lindley to replace him as the team's third-stringer.


Flynn signed with the Patriots on June 12, but was on the non-football injury list. He previously played with Green Bay, Seattle, Oakland and Buffalo.


''We don't have forever here. The train's moving,'' coach Bill Belichick said Monday.


Lindley was forced into a starting role for Arizona late last season and struggled. A sixth-round draft pick in 2012, he came in after Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton were injured for the Cardinals and went 45 for 93 for 562 yards with two touchdown passes and four interceptions. Lindley was 16 of 28 for 82 yards with one TD and two interceptions in a playoff loss to Carolina.


''He's got some experience,'' Belichick said. ''He's been in a couple of organizations, played some, and he's healthy. That's the most important trait.''


Brady has been suspended by the NFL for the first four games of the season and is fighting the suspension in court. Second-year player Jimmy Garoppolo is the backup.


Belichick did not rule out bringing back Flynn at some point. He has 17 touchdowns and 11 interceptions with three teams.


''We'll see how it goes,'' Belichick said. ''We've brought back plenty of players that were here and weren't here and then came back.

 

[CNOTES]

NFC West Breakdown


August 12, 2015




The NFC West is one of the most interesting divisions in the NFL. Each team had at least one major change to their organization this offseason.


The Seahawks lost a number of key players and were involved in a blockbuster trade that involved the acquisition of New Orleans tight end Jimmy Graham and a fourth round pick for veteran center Max Unger and Seattle’s first round pick. St. Louis sent former first overall pick in 2010 quarterback Sam Bradford to the Eagles for quarterback Nick Foles. Add to that the return of Carson Palmer to the Cardinals from a knee injury and this division has a lot of unanswered questions. Plus, San Francisco will be without Jim Harbaugh as coach and some key veterans across the board.


History


Odds to win NFC East - per Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
Seattle Seahawks 1/4
Arizona Cardinals 11/2
St. Louis Rams 7/1
San Francisco 49ers 25/1


NFC East Win Totals - per Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
Seattle Seahawks - 11 (Over -125, Under +105)
Arizona Cardinals - 8.5 (Over -120, Under +100)
St. Louis Rams - 8 (Over +140, Under -160)
San Francisco 49ers - 6 (Over -110, Under +100)


Odds Subject to Change – Updated 8.12.15


Listed below are my notes on all four teams and predicted order of finish.


1) Seattle Seahawks


Pete Carroll has guided the Seahawks to a 36-12 record during the past three regular seasons and came within a whisker of winning his second straight Super Bowl last season.


Seattle’s accomplishments have been remarkable. Unfortunately, there is a price to be paid for that success. Most people do not realize the physical toll a run to the Super Bowl places on a team. That toll is magnified for this team as a result of back to back appearances in the Super Bowl and the damage incurred by the loss of a number of starters through free agency and injury.


The Seahawks number one defense has been decimated by the loss of cornerback Byron Maxwell through free agency and defensive back Jeremy Lane to an ACL injury. Add to that the loss of defensive backs Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond last season and this team is vulnerable.


Seattle traded away their first round pick when they acquired tight end Jimmy Graham from the Saints. They drafted Michigan defensive end Frank Clark with the 63rd pick and added free agent cornerbacks Cary Williams and Will Blackmon to fill holes in their defensive backfield.


The Seahawks finished with a 12-4 record last season after getting off to a sluggish 3-3 start. They were talented enough to survive that slow start and make it to the Super Bowl. They will not have that luxury this season. With the fourth most difficult schedule, the loss of key players during the past two years and an improving division, I do not see this team making it to the Super Bowl for a third consecutive year.


2) St. Louis Rams


Jeff Fisher is entering his fourth season as head coach of the Rams with an unimpressive 20-27-1 record. St. Louis made a bold move in the off-season when they traded 2010 first overall pick quarterback Sam Bradford to the Eagles in exchange for Philadelphia’s starting quarterback Nike Foles.


The Rams had nine selections in this year’s draft. They used their first seven picks on offensive players including running back Todd Gurley with the 10th overall pick. The offensive line was terrible last season. They addressed that issue by drafting offensive linemen with their 2nd, 3rd and 5th picks.


The Rams did not sign any impact players through free agency. They were able to re-sign their second leading receiver free agent Kenny Brit to a two-year deal and added depth to their defensive line with the signing of former Lions defensive tackle Nick Fairly.


St. Louis will be an interesting team to follow this season. They have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL and have improved their offensive line. I am a Jeff Fisher fan. With the acquisition of Foles and an upgrade on the offensive line this team could surprise a few people.


3) Arizona Cardinals


What a job head coach Bruce Arians has done with the Cardinals. They are 21-11 in two seasons under Arians including a trip to the playoffs last season. He was able to get his team into the playoffs despite losing starting quarterback Carson Palmer for a good portion of last season with a knee injury.


The Cardinals had some interesting statistics. They were ranked 24th in overall offensive and defensive statistics and 24th in points scored.


Arizona needed to address their 31st ranked rushing attack. They accomplished this by drafting offensive tackle D.J. Humphries with their first round pick and Northern Iowa running back David Johnson with their third selection. They also signed 49ers free agent offensive guard Mike Lupati and Colts centre A. Q. Shipley to bolster their running attack.


The Cardinals invested heavily on defense. They used their 2nd, 3rd and 5th picks to select defensive ends and added four defensive players through free agency.


It is hard to tell what will happen with the Cardinals this season. Arians is a very good coach, but I am concerned with last year’s 24th rankings on offense, defense and points scored. I am not sure they have added enough pieces to improve in these areas. I also have concerns about starting quarterback Carson Palmer. He was having a very good season before his knee injury, but has been inconsistent throughout his career. Add this to the 5th hardest schedule, and I do not see this team matching last year’s win total.


4) San Francisco 49ers


Jim Harbaugh is out as head coach. He has been replaced by likeable 49ers assistant coach Jim Tomsula. Despite his success, the knock on Harbaugh was that he was too hard on his players.


The 49ers finished with an 8-8 record last season. There are questions surrounding starting quarterback Colin Kaepernick’s play. His quarterback rating was second highest in the league last season, but the 49ers finished 30th in overall passing statistics and 25th in points scored. There is no question that part of San Francisco’s problems last season were caused by a drop in Kaepernick’s performance.


San Francisco had the 5th ranked defense in 2014. That didn’t stop them from selecting defensive players with their first three picks in this year’s draft. The 49ers used their other seven selections to fill a number of holes including the addition of Clemson punter Bradley Pinion in the 7th round.


The 49ers have lost a number of players to retirement and veteran running back Frank Gore to free agency. They signed 11 free agents in the off-season including notable running back Reggie Bush to help replace Gore and Ravens wideout Torrey Smith.


This team has the third most difficult schedule in the league and they will be tested early. They open at home on Monday Night Football against Minnesota then travel to Pittsburgh and Arizona for their next two games before returning home to play Green Bay.


This team appears to be in big trouble. The recent loss of former first round draft pick Aldon Smith will make it difficult for this team to match last year’s win total.

 

[CNOTES]

AFC Betting Outlook


August 18, 2015




2015 AFC Division Preview

Passer Rating Differential

In a passer-friendly league these days, it’s important to know that you win when you have a quarterback; you lose when you don’t.

According to ColdHardFacts.com, teams with great efficient QBs win games and teams with lousy, inefficient QBs lose games.

Want proof? Look no further than the fact that teams that won the battle of Passer Rating Differential (the difference between a team’s Offensive Passer Rating and Defensive Passer Rating) in 2014 went 218-36 (.858). Leading the pack was Green Bay, as the Packers Offensive Passer Rating was 109.88 while its Defensive Passer Rating was 82.05 – for a differential of 27.83.

AFC teams brought up the bottom of the barrel as Jacksonville, the NY.Y. Jets and Oakland ranked as the lowest rated teams at -27.05, -26.40 and -22.54 overall Passer Rating Differentials, respectively.

In order for the AFC to hold its own against the NFC the conference will need it’s signal callers to stand up and deliver.

Toe-to-Toe

Not so coincidentally, the AFC stands 120-138-1 SU and 123-127-9 ATS in non-conference clashes against the NFC the past four seasons.

They have gone 148-109-2 ‘Over’ in those games, including 91-61-2 ‘Over’ when playing as a dog.

Quick Outs

-- The AFC reigns supreme when it comes to point differential. In 2014 New England led the league in point differential +155. In 2013 the leader was Denver at +207. In 2012 it was New England, again, at +226.

-- The Indianapolis Colts led the league in dropped passes in 2014 with 40. The Oakland Raiders (33) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (32) round out the top three. The average Drops Percentage in the NFL 2014 season was 4.35.

-- It’s a passing league these days and with it the AFC owned the three worst rushing teams in the league in 2013, Baltimore (1,328), Jacksonville (1,260) and Pittsburgh (1,383). Not so coincidentally, all three teams miss the playoffs. Last year the AFC produced two of the three worst rushing squads, Oakland and San Diego – who also missed the playoffs.

AFC EAST

BUFFALO
TEAM THEME: 16 CANDLES... AND COUNTING
If you lit a candle depicting how long it’s been since Buffalo last made a playoff appearance (16 years), you’d be holding a torch. That being said, Bills savior and new owner Terry Pegula forked over $1.6 billion for the right to become only the second owner in Buffalo’s checkered 55-year history. When asked if he overpaid for the team, Pegula’s response was point-on: “I want to ask our fans if I overpaid, because I know what they're going to tell you." And with it comes changes aplenty, starting with new head coach Rex Ryan.


After taking the Jets to the AFC championship game in his first two seasons with the Flyboys, Rexy turned less sexy with New York fans, going just 26-38, while allowing nearly 24 PPG, thereafter. Still, strong offseason acquisitions including the likes of RB Sean McCoy, WR Percy Harvin, QB Matt Cassel and TE Charles Clay, helped offset a mediocre draft (no first-round pick). Thus, WR Sammy Watkins needs to quickly justify his being the No. 4 pick in last year’s draft. The biggest issue facing the new-look Bills is the quarterback position, which has been a black hole for this team since Hall of Famer Jim Kelly (the last Buffalo QB to win a playoff game) retired. Nonetheless, if Ryan – who knows this division even better than the bottom of his wife’s feet – can replicate his first two seasons with the Jets, the passing of the torch in Buffalo will be well worth it.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Fifteen of Buffalo’s last 24 losses have been by a touchdown or less.

MIAMI
TEAM THEME: SWEET NOTHINGS
Six years, $96 million dollars. It’s the price you pay for stability in the NFL these days. Even though he has never had a winning season, and had two years remaining on the back end of his rookie contract, QB Ryan Tannehill inked a $96 million contract extension with the Dolphins in the offseason. In a dizzying three months they turned over nearly half their starting lineup, signed Tannehill and Mike Pouncey to contract extensions and landed the year’s biggest free agent prize, Ndamukong Suh. And to help Tannehill and the Fish ascend, Miami reeled in free agent Pro Bowl TE Jordan Cameron and stud WR DeVante Parker in the first round of the draft. It’s what happens when your owner (Stephen Ross) has nothing to show for his investment and is willing to provide the financial wherewithal to make it happen.


And speaking of reeling it in, expect a breakout season from WR Jarvis Landry who switches from inside to outside receiver. Word is his improvement during the offseason has been dramatic. So, if you’re head coach Joe Philbin, with all this new and expensive talent on hand it all needs to happen now. Miami beat the sisters of the poor last season, going 5-1 versus losing teams while struggling at just 3-7 versus winning opposition. Luckily OC Bill Lazor is looked upon as a quarterback whisperer after delivering dramatic results with QBs Nick Foles and Tannehill in his first year with both Philadelphia and Miami. Let’s hope it’s not all smoke being blown into Ross’ ear.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Owners of a 42-5 September home record from 1970-2003, Miami has gone 8-15 since.

NEW ENGLAND
TEAM THEME: THE DEFLATRIOTS
As pointed out in our preview, the Patriots have been one of the most consistent teams over the last dozen years, winning six straight AFC East titles, and eleven of the last twelve overall, including a pair of Super Bowl victories. Unfortunately, the Deflategate scandal further smeared the reputation of this organization with Tom Brady suspended and the team fined $1M, while losing a No. 1 draft pick next year and a 4th-rounder in 2017. In addition, the loss of star CBs Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner cannot be underestimated. Not only is the secondary weakened, it’s also likely to have an impact on the wide receivers, who felt going up against the tandem every day in practice made them better. “It's been great for our receiving corps and (because of it) we're all better out there,” insists WR Danny Amendola.


Toss in NT Vince Wilfork’s departure and suddenly there are huge gaps to fill. RBs Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley (nearly 100 rush attempts apiece last season) are also gone, leaving a significant hole in the backfield (look for Dion Lewis to fill one of the holes). If RB Jonas Gray wakes up in time, he will likely be teaming with suspended druggie LeGarrette Blount, leaving Brady holding a precarious hand. Thus, keeping stud TE Rob Gronkowski (averaged 11 TD passes in five seasons) is Priority One. Heck, if it weren’t the Patriots we’re talking about, this club would be in dire straits. Then again, it wouldn’t be a Bill Belichick team, would it?

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Patriots are 0-4 ‘In The Stats’ the last four games with the Jets, averaging 247 YPG.

NEW YORK JETS
TEAM THEME: EXTREME MAKEOVER
It’s safe to say the Jets enjoyed the best offseason of all AFC teams, and arguably the entire league. What else can you say after they landed CBs Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie, plus talented nickel-back Brian Skrine, in addition to WRs Brandon Marshall and Percy Harvin. It continued when DL Leonard Williams (USC) – said to be the best player in this year’s draft – fell into their lap with the sixth pick. Added to the mix was Ohio State star wide-out Devin Smith, the 37th selection in the draft. Indeed, it was quite a haul. But as is always the case, the success of new head coach Todd Bowles will go hand-in-hand with the play he gets from the quarterback position.


Geno Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick figured to go toe-to-toe for starting honors (that’s not saying much), until Smith hit the canvas with a broken jaw in a scuffle a former teammate. Fortunately, new OC Chan Gailey has worked with Fitzpatrick in the past (Buffalo). Another concern is that no less than 16 new coaches will be entering their first season with the Jets – and that’s not counting Bowles. On the defensive front, Gang Green will be counting heavily on third-year iron man LB Demario Davis, one of four Jets defenders to log 32 starts the past two seasons. It’s been five years since Rex Ryan last led this team to the postseason. With a little luck of the Irish, Bowles may do it in one.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is 0-15 SU away vs. foes who ended the season with a winning record.

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE
TEAM THEME: NOT SO AVERAGE JOE
Pro Bowl QB Joe Flacco, off arguably the best season of his NFL career in 2014, insists working with a fourth offensive coordinator in as many years is no big deal. This time it’s Marc Trestman, former Chicago Bears head coach. "I'm really excited about Marc being here," Flacco said last spring. "I think he's got a great mind. I think he does a great job in the meeting room. My conversations with him have gotten me excited." With Trestman aboard, and after losing WR Torrey Smith to free agency and TE Dennis Pitta to forced retirement, Baltimore’s first priority in the draft was to bolster its air corps.


That was accomplished with the selection of human rocket Breshad Perriman with the first pick, then trading up for TE Maxx Williams in the second round. As a result, Flacco was all smiles entering the OTA’s. You would be too after piloting the team to franchise records in total points (25.6) and yards (364.9) per game last season. Meanwhile, head coach John Harbaugh has been a symbol of success during his tenure with the Black Birds, averaging nearly 12 wins in seven years, with nary a losing season. And to his credit, he managed to make it to the AFC divisional round game year despite the fallout from the Ray Rice fiasco, thanks to a career-year (1,266 yards) from RB Justin Forsett. An 18-7 SU mark in head-to-head games against the NFC West – including 4-1 with Harbaugh – bodes well. Color them a legit threat to make it to Super Bowl 50.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: 30 of the Ravens’ 45 losses under John Harbaugh have been by a touchdown or less, including 10 times the last two years.

CINCINNATI
TEAM THEME: STRIPE HYPE
In the 2014 season the Bengals dealt heavily with the injury bug on the offensive side of the ball. Among others, they lost QB Andy Dalton’s No. 2 wide receiver in Marvin Jones (10 TD passes in 2013 – only five WRs scored more. Figuring to contribute this season with a now-healthy Jones is 2013 first-round pick TE Tyler Eifert, out the majority of last year. Along with star WR A.J. Green and added support from Mohamed Sanu, Denarius Moore and Brandon Tate, plus a boost from good-hands running back Giovanni Bernard, these cats once again have an air attack that would make most head coaches envious. And speaking of Dalton, his 40-23-1 record in the NFL is rock solid, to say the least. It’s his 0-4 mark in the playoffs that leaves the 96 million-dollar-man scratching his head.


To make matters worse, the Red Rifle’s numbers regressed last season, albeit largely due to the aforementioned loss of Eifert and Jones. Cincy has added much needed depth to the OL with the addition of Cedric Ogbeuhi and Jake Fisher with their top two picks in this year’s draft. Meanwhile, second year RB Jeremy Hill fits run-loving OC Hue Jackson’s playbook like a glove. The Achilles heel may be its defense, one that slipped 60 YPG last season. The optimistic return of stud LB Vontaze Burfict (microfracture surgery) is a key to a turnaround. It may sound like press-release hype but the fact is it would be a shock if the Bengals do not only improve on last year’s 10-win effort but also... drum roll, please... win a playoff game!

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: It’s been 24 years since the Bengals last won a playoff game – the longest in the league.

CLEVELAND
TEAM THEME: QB-PALOOZA
After a 7-4 start under new head coach Mike Pettine last season, it was looking like sunny skies had finally found their way to the north coast. And then faster than you can say nor’easter, the heavens turned black when the Browns lost all-star C Alex Mack and proceeded to drop their final five games of the season. In the process, Cleveland cycled through three more starting quarterbacks, making it 10 the last five years and a total of 23 starting signal callers since their rebirth 16 years ago. As stoked up as Browns fans were when the team announced the selection of Heisman Trophy winning Johnny Manziel in the first round of last year’s draft, it proved to be simply another letdown: Manziel himself was more stoked than most realized when he headed off to rehab at the conclusion of the season.


Gone is QB Brian Hoyer, the hometown star who just happened to own the only winning record (10-6 SU and 11-5 ATS) as a starting Cleveland quarterback since Vinny Testaverde (1993-95). So does recycled QB Josh McCown – 1-10 as a starter with Tampa Bay last season – step in and pick up where Hoyer left off, or does a clear-headed Johnny Smoke take over and capitalize on a super-soft three game season-opening set (foes 9-39 last year) and win the fans back? Stay tuned. Meanwhile, re-cycled WR’s Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline come aboard. The hope is a star-studded draft, headlined with NT Danny Shelton and RB Duke Johnson (the talk of minicamp), should pay dividends sooner than later.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Browns are 1-15 SU the last two years without QB Brian Hoyer.

PITTSBURGH
TEAM THEME: CAPSULIZING
If you don’t agree with us that the best acquisition the Steelers made during the offseason last year was the signing of OL coach Mike Munchak, then think again. After having been sacked 386 times in his 10-year NFL career – or an average of 2.64 times per game started – Ben Roethlisberger hit the deck just 2.24 times per game last season. As a result, Pittsburgh’s offense spiked 71 YPG when the Black-and-Gold ended a two-year playoff hiatus. This season they must endure a three-game suspension of stoner RB Le’Veon Bell (pot), meaning he’ll be out the entire month of September.


The hope is 32-year old RB DeAngelo Williams has enough oxygen left in the tank to fill the gap. On the other side of the ball the defense loses Hall of Fame DB Troy Polamalu, along with CB Ike Taylor and LB Jason Worilds, all to retirement. In addition, longtime DC Dick LeBeau has departed, leaving the Steel Curtain in distress. If the picture we’re painting seems fuzzy, it’s because it is. The good news is the long-in-the-tooth Steelers are clearing cap space – $8.2M this year as opposed to 998K last season – and Big Ben has been signed to a long-term deal. At least for now the Steelers can make clear football decisions, instead of worrying how many players they must cut to clear enough cap room.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Roethlisberger is 17-3 SU in his NFL career games played in Ohio.

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON
TEAM THEME: BOUNCE HOUSE
After winning the stats by 29 YPG in 2013, yet losing 14 games in the process, the call went out to Bill O’Brien to get Houston back to the playoff. Despite slipping in the stats on both sides of the ball, O’Brien’s bunch came tantalizingly close to returning to the postseason. And therein lies the rub. It’s not often a team slips statistically as Houston did in 2014, yet improves dramatically both SU and ATS – which by definition makes them prime ‘play against’ material the next season. Granted, we admire the fact the Texans outyarded each of their final five opponents to finish the season but closer inspection reveals that three of the contests were against division lightweights Jacksonville and Tennessee.


Meanwhile, former Browns QB Brian Hoyer comes in to battle former Patriots castoff Ryan Mallet, with Hoyer holding the edge having worked under O’Brien at New England. And since the quality of the quarterback position largely determines the outcome of a season, the Texans could be in trouble. Especially with former stud WR Andre Johnson in a new huddle, leaving talented DeAndre Hopkins and 3rd round steal Jaelen Strong to carry most of the wide receiver weight. The loss of star RB Arian Foster (groin) for the first half of the campaign is especially crippling for and offense looking to find an identity. A healthy Jadeveon Clowney, along with Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt, could make the defense imposing. Still, with HBO’s HARD KNOCKS focusing on their every move this preseason, a bounce looks to be in order this season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Texans have suffered 13 losses by a TD or less the last two seasons, including six by a FG or less.

INDIANAPOLIS
TEAM THEME: GREATEST SHOE ON EARTH
It was fun while it lasted, picking on the Colts and their smoke-and-mirrors winning efforts the previous two years. But after drawing the league’s easiest – or 2nd easiest – strength of schedule each of the past three years, it appears the Colts are ready to go toe-to-toe with the Big Boys in 2015. A 33-5 SU mark at home in division play since 2002 bodes well. As does the fact they will face only four foes this season that made the playoffs last year. In a sign of Super Bowl or bust, the offseason additions of WR Andre Johnson (34 years old) and RB Frank Gore (32 years old) look good on paper, but age could be a factor. Consider: in the NFL's 95-year history, there have been only 46 instances of a 1,000-yard season by a running back who is at least 30 years old. Worse, only four times has it happened for one older than 32, and not once since 1984.


The real strength of the team, however, is QB Andrew Luck who is a jaw-dropping 14-1 SUATS off a loss – meaning he’s lost back-to-back contests only one time. And then there’s Chuck Pagano, Indy’s underrated head coach, who himself is 12-1 SU and 11-1-1 ATS in games off a spread loss. They are also ecstatic over selecting WR Phillip Dorsett at No. 29 overall in this year’s NFL Draft. “He looks really good,” Pagano raved. “He’s really fast. He’s got really good hands. He’s really smart.” (FYI: the Colts led the league in dropped passes, 50, last year). Yep, he’s Andrew Luck’s kind of guy – and the QB agrees that Dorsett fits in very, very well. Behind an improving defense, its no wonder Indianapolis OC Pep Hamilton has dubbed the Colts the “Greatest Shoe on Earth.” It’s a moniker the iconic helmets can finally live up to... provided Luck can snap a dizzying 0-4 SUATS career mark against the Patriots.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Colts are 12-1 SU and 11-1-1 ATS when playing on Thursdays.

JACKSONVILLE
TEAM THEME: HOP ON THE BUS, GUS
The news from rookie minicamp was not good: the Jaguars suffered a crushing blow when LB Dante Fowler, the third selection in this year’s NFL Draft, tore his left ACL. Still, all is not lost. Jacksonville had the sixth most sacks in the league last year without Fowler and have added former Miami Dolphins DL Jared Odrick – who many believe is set for a breakout season in 2015. Fowler can now learn behind Sen’Drick Marks (12.5 sacks the last two seasons) and Chris Clemons (8 sacks and 4 forced fumbles last year). Ironically, Marks tore his ACL three seasons ago before developing into an elite pass rusher. In addition, the Jags may have landed the biggest gem of the draft when Ohio State DT Michael Bennett fell to them in the sixth round. And then there is the offense where, come hell or high water, Blake Bortles is their quarterback.


Last year’s third overall pick was the worst QB in the league statistically but Bortles has shown enough promise and leadership that the feeling is he has nowhere to go but up this season. After two years of finishing 31st in total offense under Jedd Fisch, new OC Greg Olsen can only hope to lead this offense up the ladder. The hope is former Alabama star and rookie RB T.J. Yeldon – the third running back in this year’s draft – will help kick-start an attack that has failed to gain 300 YPG each of the last four seasons. And word from camp is former starting RB Toby Gerhart is healthy and turning heads. Should that happen, Jags fans will be riding the victory bus with Gus.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Jaguars have been favored in only one of their last 44 games.

TENNESSEE
TEAM THEME: MATH WHIZ
Ken Whisenhunt’s first year with the Titans was not a good one as no team in the league won fewer games. Enter the newest savior: Marcus Mariota, last year’s Heisman Trophy winning quarterback from Oregon. Recognizing an apparent need for instant offense, Whiz immediately surrounded the deceptive Duck with plenty of help at the wide receiver position, bringing in Hakeem Nicks and Harry Douglas while also drafting Dorial Green-Beckham. Word in camp is Marriotta has taken control of the huddle and is further along than they thought he would be. “I think there is good reason to be really excited about him,” said Whisenhunt. Let the experiment begin. Meanwhile, an experienced OL returns five linemen who each started at least five games last season.


New assistant head coach Dick LeBeau will be in charge of the defense. As David Climer of the Tennessean.com best put it, “LeBeau is in the same union as Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy. He shows up in the middle of the night and delivers great defense while we’re sleeping.” His defenses have earned five No. 1 rankings and he owns two Super Bowl rings with the Steelers. It’s said he makes average players good, good players great, and great players elite. See Joey Porter, James Harrison and Troy Polamalu for prime examples. The free agent additions of LBs Brian Orakpo and Derrick Morgan should be a terrific fit. LeBeau’s hire was not only a no-brainer but a coup for a 2-14 team whose defense was ranked 27th in the NFL last year. It all adds up to a huge step forward.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Rookie QB Ben Roethlisberger went 14-1 when Ken Whisenhunt was the Steelers OC.

AFC WEST

DENVER
TEAM THEME: KOOB JOB
As mind-boggling as it seems, after averaging more than 12 wins a season with Denver, the Broncos sent head coach John Fox packing. Enter Gary Kubiak, former head Houston boss who averaged less than 8 wins per season in just under eight years with the Texans. While we may not own a masters degree from MIT, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to call that a mysterious move. However, a deeper look shows Kubiak, an OC for the Broncos from 1995-2005 and Texas High School Hall of Fame inductee, was twice named to the all-state football, basketball, baseball and track teams.


He played his entire nine-year NFL career as a backup for John Elway, and thus the two are re-united once again. Kubiak owns three Super Bowl rings, two more than his star QB Peyton Manning, who winds down a brilliant Hall of Fame career having won 40 of 53 games for the Broncos. It should also be noted that Kubiak mentored quarterbacks John Elway and Joe Montana in their NFL careers. With 40 wins in the last three seasons, and behind a defense that improved leaps and bounds in 2014 en route to outstatting 13 of its final 15 foes, it appears Peyton is in prime position to write a winning epitaph. So the question begs: Is Gary Kubiak the man for the job in Denver? John Elway thinks so. Retaining WR Demaryius Thomas for the long run was huge, but rest assured, this team is going as far as Manning takes them.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Head coach Gary Kubiak is 0-8 ATS in his NFL career in Game Five of the season.

KANSAS CITY
TEAM THEME: CHARLES CHIPS
After taking over a 2-14 squad in 2013 and compiling 20 wins in two seasons, Andy Reid is riding high in Kansas City these days. Sure, he’s yet to win a playoff game, but then again the Chiefs are 0-8 SUATS in postseason play dating back to 1994. And on a side-bar note, speaking of non-regular season games, this just in: KC has struggled mightily in preseason play, too, going 9-34-1 SU and 7-36-1 ATS in its last 44 exhibition games. It’s safe to say the Chiefs’ absence from the playoffs last year – despite winning ten games – was largely attributable to the dramatic drop in numbers by feature running back Jamaal Charles. Playing through an injury-riddled season, Charles amassed nearly 700 fewer combined yards while catching 30 fewer passes.


One has to figure if Charles chips in with a better effort in 2015 that Kansas City’s season-ending woes under Reid (4-8 SUATS during the final six games of the regular season) might be a thing of the past. The addition of ex-Philadelphia WR Jeremy Maclin was an upgrade over departed Dwayne Bowe. Coupled with speedy 3rd round pick, 6-foot-2 WR Chris Conley (4.35 speed with 45-inch vertical jump), they figure to aid QB Alex Smith, whose 18 TDs and 6 INTs last year equated into a rock-solid 93.4 QB Rating. Heck, they may even snag a TD pass this season (none by Chiefs’ wide-outs in all of 2014). The return to health of star CB Eric Berry is a strong shot in the arm for the defense. Once again the pieces are in place. The rest is up to Andy.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is 16-0 SU with rest versus sub .888 opponents.

OAKLAND
TEAM THEME: KEYS TO A NEW CARR
New but re-cycled head coach Jack Del Rio joins the Raiders, a team that has suffered 10 double-digit loss seasons the last eleven years. Also aboard is new OC Bill Musgrave, who spent the last two seasons working with Chip Kelly in Philadelphia. Musgrave’s up-tempo offense should suit rising QB Derek Carr – who thrived in a no-huddle attack at Fresno State – just fine. Carr, though, will need to improve on his atrocious 5.5 yards-per-attempt mark, one of the worst in NFL history. To do so, Alabama’s Amari Cooper, the best wide receiver in this year’s NFL Draft, was taken with the fourth overall pick. Cooper may also end up being the best player selected – he’s that good.


With the addition of Michael Crabtree, Carr now has the tools to work with. In addition, Oakland is expecting big things from third round draft pick TE Clive Walford (Miami, FL). The loss of RB Darren McFadden to the Cowboys marks the end of a failed project as health issues hampered his high hopes. Likely-to-explode RB Latavius Murray showed big-play potential last season and will step in for McFadden. The bottom line, though, is this team will go as far as its young defense carries them. Del Rio is a defensive specialist and having LB Khalil Mack as his anchor is a strong starting point.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Raiders are 1-11 SUATS vs. foes off a pair of losses by 7 or more points each.

SAN DIEGO
TEAM THEME: DIAMONDS ON THE SOLES OF THEIR SHOES
What appeared to be a messy divorce in the making turned into good news for the Chargers in 2015 when they managed to ink QB Philip Rivers to a lucrative long-term deal. And while it appeared that the loss of OC Ken Whisenhunt last year was unsettling (Diego dipped 39 YPG on offense in 2014), San Diego’s 9-win effort last season fell right in line with the fact the Chargers’ record has now regressed each year eight times in a row since 1982 after winning 10 or more games the previous season. So what can we expect in 2015? They will certainly need Rivers to improve on a 55.8 QBR on passes 10 yards or fewer. He finished seventh in the league in the same category en route to a 10-win playoff effort in 2013. It’s called taking what the defense gives you, a trait his AFC West counterpart Peyton Manning does best.


Meanwhile, San Diego lost RB Ryan Mathews to the Eagles and WR Eddie Royal to the Bears in free agency, but managed to acquire WR Stevie Johnson. First round draft pick RB Melvin Gordon of Wisconsin will be counted on to fill Mathews’ shoes. The loss of star TE Antonio Gates – Rivers’ security blanket - for the first month of the season (drugs) is a bummer. But as far as Rivers’ separation papers from the Chargers were concerned, it was Zsa Zsa Gabor who put divorce in the best light when she said, “I have never hated a man enough to give his diamonds back.” Safe to say, Rivers now walks with diamonds on the soles of his shoes.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Philip Rivers is 31-9 SU during the month of December in his NFL career.

 

[CNOTES]

Preseason Week 2 Essentials


August 17, 2015




Week 1 of the preseason went in the books with a Tim Tebow touchdown run as the final score. That’s fitting since the exhibition season often feels like Fantasyland. There’s always something teasing the imagination that can lead you to some wild proclamations.


For instance, the Vikings are 2-0 and clearly a lock for the Super Bowl since Adrian Peterson sat both games out and star safety Harrison Smith barely played. Chiefs quarterback Chase Daniel is about to set the league on fire.


A lot of people out there got more ammo for their argument, disproven to this point, that Kirk Cousins would be a better quarterback for Washington than Robert Griffin III. The Patriots are going to be 0-1 with Jimmy Garoppolo if Tom Brady fails to pull off a full pardon on his suspension via appeal.


It’s a Small World here. Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride over there.


The latter could definitely be utilized as an accurate description of Jameis Winston’s and Marcus Mariota’s debuts, or my fun run going 17-2-1 against the spread.


The preseason isn’t necessarily as random as the natural inclination to disparage it as meaningless forces you to believe. In some ways, it’s more easily predictable than the regular season despite far more participants and varying degrees of skill. Minnesota still has a ways to go before making reservations for Santa Clara and RG III still gives Washington its best chance to win, but not all we saw was a mirage.


Kansas City’s Daniel, if nothing else, has likely lit a fire under Alex Smith. Andy Reid isn’t going to ride out a lengthy slump. What we saw out of Winston and Mariota was likely a microcosm of what we should expect. There was some brilliance surrounded by plenty of miscues. Jimmy G. didn’t look so hot. Tebow is fourth on the Eagles pecking order of quarterbacks and showed why in between an impressive opening drive and his final glorious plunge into the end zone, struggling with reads and pressure.


There’s going to be considerably more material to scrutinize in Week 2, especially with more talent taking the field for longer periods. Here’s how the schedule unfolds:


Thursday, Aug. 20


Detroit at Washington: The Griffin-Cousins debate surges on in D.C. Since the next home game will be in the final week of the preseason, this will be the lone opportunity for the fans at FedEx Field to put in their two cents and have it register. RG III was 4-of-8 in the opener and needs to play well against a Lions team that should again compete for a playoff spot if healthy.


Buffalo at Cleveland: This nationally televised showcase pits Rex Ryan against his former defensive coordinator and confidant Mike Pettine for the first time as head coaches. With QB competitions going on in both cities, it will be interesting to see who stands out. Tyrod Taylor and Johnny Manziel are running second, but hoping to stand out by making plays with their legs that projected starters Matt Cassel and Josh McCown can’t.


Friday, Aug. 21


Atlanta at N.Y. Jets: The NYJ QB gig is Ryan Fitzpatrick’s now, so don’t expect them to risk losing him given the lack of experience behind him. You may ultimately see him draped in heavy duty plastic couch covers before the preseason is through. Rookie Bryce Petty threw for just 50 yards on 18 pass attempts against Detroit and will take the bulk of the snaps here too. The early battles between Falcons receivers and Jets corners might be the only reason to watch.


Seattle at Kansas City: There are a ton of intriguing story lines in this one, but none better than former K-State star Tyler Lockett taking his show to Arrowhead after an electric home debut where he racked up over 200 yards in returns. We’ll also see if Daniel can exploit a depleted Seahawks secondary after going 17-for-21 with three touchdown passes at Arizona.


Saturday, Aug. 22


Miami at Carolina: The Panthers are looking for their offensive line to gel throughout this month, so getting subjected to Ndamakong Suh this early is likely a blessing. Cam Newton led a scoring drive but struggled with his accuracy, while Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill was clutch in leading a scoring drive in his lone series against Chicago. Both will get more work here.


Baltimore at Philadelphia: Two of the three teams to score 30 or more in their preseason opener square off here. All eyes will be on Sam Bradford, expected to make his debut after missing all of last season after re-tearing his ACL last August. Considering how shaky Mark Sanchez looked, the Eagle faithful on hand will be crossing their fingers that he’ll look healthy and ease their concerns.


Chicago at Indianapolis: The Bears won their preseason opener 27-10 on the strength of their backups and third-stringers because the Jay Cutler-led offense and rebuilt defense were actually disappointing. Their first units will see more action against the Colts, who are likely to dust off Andrew Luck for more than the few snaps he took on Sunday.


New England at New Orleans: Since Tom Brady unexpectedly played last week, you know he’ll be a part of the equation here. Still, getting Garropolo more comfortable should be the main concern in this second preseason test. Drew Brees makes his debut as he moves on from departed favorite target Jimmy Graham.


Jacksonville at N.Y. Giants: The Eli Manning-led first unit managed one first down and 38 yards in four series against the Bengals, so boos may be heard insanely early if the listless play continues against the Jaguars. TE Julius Thomas broke his right hand on Friday, so Jacksonville’s newest weapon will miss the rest of the preseason.


Denver at Houston: Veteran Peyton Manning will need to avoid a meeting with J.J. Watt for a drive or two, debuting after sitting out last week’s win in Seattle. The Texans will have Ryan Mallett and Brian Hoyer continue their QB battle after both had solid showings against the 49ers on Saturday night.


Oakland at Minnesota: No, Peterson won’t play, but a defense that continues to look terrific can take another step forward as head coach Mike Zimmer looks to improve his preseason record to 7-0. The Raiders gave up three points themselves in stifling St. Louis 18-3 last Friday, so facing a quality opponent on the road could be a real confidence builder for an improving young team.


San Diego at Arizona: The Cardinals welcomed back Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton, showed them love and made sure they stayed upright in brief cameos. Expect more of the same against the Chargers, who didn’t even crack 75 passing yards against Dallas last week.


Sunday, Aug. 23


Green Bay at Pittsburgh: How much of two of the NFL’s most prolific offenses will we get to see here? If this were a regular-season affair, the total would be set over 50. Rodgers actually threw the ball 19 times against New England, so we might get a fun opening half if both coaches are feeling frisky and willing to trust their offensive lines to keep their franchise quarterbacks upright.


Dallas at San Francisco: Cowboys running back Gus Johnson separated his shoulder to bow out in the race to replace DeMarco Murray, but banged-up top candidates Joseph Randle, Darren McFadden and Lance Dunbar may all suit up and get some action at Levi’s Stadium. The 49ers got 120 total yards out of Aussie rugby player Jarryd Hayne in the preseason opener, so he won’t be sneaking up on the Cowboys.


St. Louis at Tennessee: The Rams got nothing going with their backups in Oakland, failing to score after starter Nick Foles left the game. Foles should get a longer look here, as will Mariota, who threw his first interception in his opening quarter against live action after going through camp unblemished.


Monday, Aug. 24


Cincinnati at Tampa Bay: The season’s unoffical first Monday night game has some appeal. Winston attempts to bounces back from a rocky debut to the Andy Dalton-led offense looking to go 2-for-2 on dominating opening drives. A.J. Green caught a pass, Jeremy Hill broke off a few strong runs and an offense that has the personnel to be imposing looked mighty impressive against the Giants.

 

[CNOTES]

[h=2]

[/h]

Thursday's Preseason Tips

August 19, 2015

Week 2 of the preseason gives us an opportunity to ****** all the happenings from the opening week which saw plenty of stars play for a limited time. In Week 1, home teams posted an impressive 11-5 straight-up and against the spread mark, as the Packers, Panthers, and Broncos were the only three underdogs to cash (and win outright). The ‘over’ went 8-7-1 last week, while eight teams scored 11 points or fewer.

Lions at Redskins (-2 ½, 40) – 7:30 PM EST

Detroit
Head Coach: Jim Caldwell (6-11 SU, 8-9 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Matthew Stafford, Dan Orlovsky, Kellen Moore, Garrett Gilbert

The Lions dominated the woeful Jets in their preseason opener, 23-3 as four-point home favorites. Detroit racked up over 400 yards of offense, including 193 yards on the ground, highlighted by Nebraska rookie Ameer Abdullah’s 67 yards. Detroit accumulated 26 first downs, compared to six from New York, as the Lions improved to 4-1 in their last five preseason openers.

Since 2011, the Lions have turned into one of the best underdogs in preseason action, covering six of the last seven when receiving points in the exhibition season, including a 3-0 ATS mark in 2014. In five preseason games since Caldwell took over, Detroit has cashed the ‘under’ four times.

Washington
Head Coach: Jay Gruden (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Robert Griffin III, Colt McCoy, Kirk Cousins

The Redskins rallied from a 14-3 deficit to beat the Browns, 20-17 last Thursday in a pick-em spot. In spite of the close score, Washington outgained Cleveland by 198 yards, as the Redskins turned the ball over twice in the win. Kirk Cousins put together a solid outing for the ‘Skins by completing 12 of 14 passes for 154 yards, while leading Washington to the go-ahead score in the third quarter.

Washington may not have performed well in the 2014 regular season by going 4-12, but the Redskins won three of four preseason games last August. The ‘under’ improved to 4-1 in Gruden’s preseason tenure, while the Redskins enter Thursday’s action riding an eight-game home exhibition winning streak since 2011.

Bills at Browns (-3, 40) – 8:00 PM EST

Buffalo
Head Coach: Rex Ryan (11-14 SU, 11-14 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Tyrod Taylor, Matt Cassel, E.J. Manuel, Matt Simms

The Bills are definitely not sold on a quarterback as they creep closer to their regular season opener against the Colts. Buffalo dropped its preseason opener to Carolina, 25-24 as three-point favorites, in spite of racking 368 yards of offense. The Bills held the ball for over 37 minutes, as E.J. Manuel tossed a 51-yard touchdown pass in third quarter. However, Manuel isn’t the front-runner for Buffalo’s starting quarterback.

Former Raven Tyrod Taylor gets the start at Cleveland, coming off a 5 for 8 effort against Carolina for 49 yards. Taylor will give way to Matt Cassel, who threw just one incompletion in eight attempts last week, then Manuel will likely see time in the second half after all the starters are out. LeSean McCoy is sidelined this week after suffering a hamstring injury, but another ex-Eagle stepped up against the Panthers as Bryce Brown rushed for 52 yards and one touchdown on six carries.

The Bills have dropped three of their past four preseason games away from Orchard Park, while Buffalo is 1-7 ATS in its last eight preseason contests overall.

Cleveland
Head Coach: Mike Pettine (1-4, SU, 2-3 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Josh McCown, Johnny Manziel, Thaddeus Lewis

The Browns didn’t accomplish much offensively in their 20-17 setback to the Redskins last Thursday, accumulating 170 yards. The lone highlight came from Johnny Manziel, who scampered for a 12-yard touchdown run several plays following a Washington fumble on a punt return. Manziel didn’t put up bad numbers, completing 7 of 11 passes for 42 yards, but the Heisman Trophy winner will once again play second-fiddle to Josh McCown, who makes his second straight start.

Cleveland hasn’t performed well in the preseason under Pettine, losing four of five games. Three of the four defeats have come by three points or less, while owning a 1-3 ATS record as a favorite. Can the Browns bust out of the gate against the Bills like they did against the Redskins? Cleveland scored 14 points in the first half last Thursday, a stark contrast from last preseason when the Browns failed to put up more than seven points in the opening half in three of four exhibition games.​