Classic post on Key numbers in the NBA

OccamsRazor · Nov 3, 2004

The following is a post originally put up by Moon88 dealing with NBA key numbers. All credit to him.
http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=147595

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I’ve followed up with the formula needed to arrive at the break even point when laying different prices. All credit to Gridster for posting it. <o

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Break even at 110 is 52.4. Break even at 105 is 51.21<o

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“divide how much you lay by the sum of what you lay and what you win, then multiply by 100%.

[lay/(lay + win)] * 100% = Break even hit%

For -130 odds:

[130/(130 + 100)] * 100%

[130/230] * 100%

.565 * 100% = 56.5%”<o

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It can be prudent to buy points AT times, but its expensive in the long run. Here is a current example from today’s Cleveland/Indiana game Clev is-3 105. You need to hit 51.21% to break even. You can buy it down to 2.5 for 115. Now you’ll need to win 53.48% of your bets to break even!! That’s an outrageous jump of 2.27 winning percentage points a very, very expensive .10 cents in terms of breaking even. That is why many consider buying points a sucker’s proposition, its way too expensive. With the above formula and the post on key numbers now you can make informed decisions on whether or not to buy off key numbers. <o

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eltonio · Nov 3, 2004

Maybe not the right place for this but just wondering how this relates to buying the hook in football off the 3 or 7. Just wondering whether this limited type of buy would show a profit in the long run.

OccamsRazor · Nov 3, 2004

Very expensive to buy off the 3' and 7' You'd wind up paying around 1.25 and have to hit 55% of your wagers just to break even.

TescoVee · Nov 3, 2004

Thanks for the post Oscam. Answers my question yesterday that I had.

GL this season. Looking fwd to your picks on a consistent basis.

ImmanuelKant · Nov 3, 2004

very interesting thread .......the debate over when to buy(and key numbers) has always been, to me at least,a big part of the puzzle that is handicapping......using the Cleve/Mil game that you used in your example, shows what I believe is even more important......

That game was available at Cleveland pk -122, when I bought it, and I think there were even better prices available than that.

To me it's opening numbers that offer the handicapper the greatest opportunity.

OccamsRazor · Nov 3, 2004

Eman: Pinny and other Sportsbooks put out outrageous overnight lines to sucker in the unsuspecting. Agree that the opening number is the most important. But it has to be the REAL opening number not the EARLIEST number. Cleveland Pk at-122 is an EARLY way over priced number. You got to hit 55% of your wagers laying 122 to break EVEN. 55% to break even means the Po house is waiting for you. Heck you can get Clev+3 for about-190 if you want.

Point is know what you are really doing when you lay 115, 120, 125,
Real opening numbers will be priced in the 105-110 range.All others you are paying through the nose;they are early numbers. Pinny makes their easy money by people buying their early numbers.