Raiders and Niners lose as well. More than 55% of the people left prior to this week beginning have been eliminated already with 2 games to play. If the Bengals were to somehow lose to Washington on MNF there would only be 638 entries left after only 48 total games have been played and each ticket wold already be worth over 20K. Regardless, there will be no more than about 1,650 entries left after this week.
I have a legit question for the math wizards. Considering risk, variance, hold equity, and time value of money if this were to dwindle to 500 or so contestants by week 5 (totally possible) and what dollar amount, related to number of weeks, do you start to consider calling others to chop the pot. My guess is that you have to consider the single entry (1K) and at what dollar amount does the risk/variance outweigh the potential speedy return and built in equity of each surviving entry?
I would assume that most who came up with the 1K to enter did so fairly easily and weren't pressed to secure the funds. With that assumption and an investment type mindset I'd say my threshold would be 50K in under 8 weeks and I see +EV in chopping quickly. I'd look for there to be about 220 people left, take 5OK each, and leave 2M+ to play out the rest of the contest. If you have multiple entries left, I think this would entice me to do this even more.
Curious what others think but I'd take the 50K and run. Thats a years salary for a lot of hard working people.
I have a legit question for the math wizards. Considering risk, variance, hold equity, and time value of money if this were to dwindle to 500 or so contestants by week 5 (totally possible) and what dollar amount, related to number of weeks, do you start to consider calling others to chop the pot. My guess is that you have to consider the single entry (1K) and at what dollar amount does the risk/variance outweigh the potential speedy return and built in equity of each surviving entry?
I would assume that most who came up with the 1K to enter did so fairly easily and weren't pressed to secure the funds. With that assumption and an investment type mindset I'd say my threshold would be 50K in under 8 weeks and I see +EV in chopping quickly. I'd look for there to be about 220 people left, take 5OK each, and leave 2M+ to play out the rest of the contest. If you have multiple entries left, I think this would entice me to do this even more.
Curious what others think but I'd take the 50K and run. Thats a years salary for a lot of hard working people.
Raiders and Niners lose as well. More than 55% of the people left prior to this week beginning have been eliminated already with 2 games to play. If the Bengals were to somehow lose to Washington on MNF there would only be 638 entries left after only 48 total games have been played and each ticket wold already be worth over 20K. Regardless, there will be no more than about 2,600 entries left after this week.
I really did enjoy reading your take and suggesting what might take place later on down the road.
I do not see a chop being voted as an option untill there are 10 entries or less. Most of the entries in Circa ave 2 or more players per entry. Quite a few entries have over 4 people involved per entry. As the weeks go by and getting closer to the Thanksgiving weekend investors are buying a piece of the action on the live tickets. This in my humble opinion will lean towards not voting for a chop since there will be quite a few people involved in the voting and big money invested in live tickets.
I myself have always leaned toward hedging my bets especially if I can receive a very nice profit.
I'm sure ego is going to be a deciding factor like last season for someone not to hedge like the
pro poker player who went home with nothing.
On the other had with the prize money at a record level it will be fascinating to see how it all turns out.
I do not see a chop being voted as an option untill there are 10 entries or less. Most of the entries in Circa ave 2 or more players per entry. Quite a few entries have over 4 people involved per entry. As the weeks go by and getting closer to the Thanksgiving weekend investors are buying a piece of the action on the live tickets. This in my humble opinion will lean towards not voting for a chop since there will be quite a few people involved in the voting and big money invested in live tickets.
I myself have always leaned toward hedging my bets especially if I can receive a very nice profit.
I'm sure ego is going to be a deciding factor like last season for someone not to hedge like the
pro poker player who went home with nothing.
On the other had with the prize money at a record level it will be fascinating to see how it all turns out.
