Cincinnati Bengals vs Detroit Lions 10/17/2021

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Expect a close game with the Cincinnati Bengals winning 52% of simulations, and the Detroit Lions 48% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Cincinnati Bengals commit fewer turnovers in 52% of simulations and they go on to win 72% when they take care of the ball. The Detroit Lions wins 71% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Joe Burrow is averaging 299 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (45% chance) then he helps his team win 55%. Dandre Swift is averaging 60 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (40% chance) then he helps his team win 68%.
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