Churchill 7/4

[CervezaRedux]

Not too crazy about the Calder card today so I'm taking a big stab at CD.

R1
I like the situation for SMOOTH IMAGE here. ML is 20-1 so she's going to give us value. She is turning back to a sprint from a mile and she's flashed speed in a 7f race two back in the slop. I've seen bottom level claimers like this sneak in before - why not now?
$10 WPS #7

R2
The more I look at this one, the more I think WILDEST DREAM (15-1 ML) can make the lead. This would certainly give him a chance - my worry is that CONCERTO DE VARSO will get a better trip than his last try and win it in the stretch run.
$10 WPS #9
$5 ex 8/4,6,9
$2 ex 9/4,6,8

R3
I'm going with TWIN TALK here mostly because he's run well fresh before and he looks like the class against this field. Can't really get a feel for this race.
$20 W #11

R4
FABULOUS FURY looks like she has the perfect running style for this contest although I'm a little concerned that perhaps Shuman's drugs have worn off by now.
$15 WP #7

More later...

 

[G.MONEY]

Good Luck today Cerveza...Have a safe 4TH..........G.

 

[jimmyk+]

cheers Cerveza !!!! gl !!!:toast:

 

[CervezaRedux]

R6

OXFORD JOY just needs this little bit of added distance. Gets a rider upgrade and is poised for a big one.
$10 WPS #10

R7
SMOKE WARNING looks mighty tough, but if he falters the value should be with NERINX who can certainly build off that last effort.
$20 W #2
$10 ex box 2-5

R8
I'm all over LANDMARK if the price stays at 5-1 or better. Should be ready off the freshening.
$30 WP

 

[jimmyk+]

........didn't like the 3rd much, but after seein how the track seems to be plyin , gonna take a shot w/ OK CARACEY ...............WPS.................

 

[jimmyk+]

........nice call on TWIN TALK