GL chonce
Just adding my up-to-date NFL record and a short write-up on the Thursday night game.
NFL 2015: YTD: 50-27-3 (+50.1 units)
4 unit plays: 5-1-1 (+15.6 units)
3 unit plays: 3-2 (+2.4 units)
2 unit plays: 21-7-1 (+26.4)
1 unit plays: 23-17-1 (+5.7 units)
Week 7 Results
4 unit plays: 2-0- (+8 units)
3 unit plays: n/a
2 unit plays: 3-1 + 3.8 units
1 unit plays: 5-1 (+3.9)
Pats – 7 (-125) 2 units
Tom Brady is 8-0 on Thursday night games since 2002 and 41-1 against AFC East opponents at home since 2007. When they have a lead at halftime at home, they are 90-0 since 2000.
The Dolphins rookie head coach has benefited from playing the Titans and Texans – arguably the worst teams in the NFL. Now he has a short week vs the best team in the league. The coaching matchup on a short-week favors New England – the Patriot leaders on all three sides of the ball know their scheme in and out, compared to the Dolphins who have had weeks.
I bought this down because the last two weeks the Pats have landed on a 7, when the spread was close to that number (I had them -7 (-120) vs Colts and -6.5 (-117) vs Jets. As I have been warning lately, I am due for a losing streak. I have won 9 bets in a row and 11 of my last 13. So, if you believe that most bettors will regress to the mean, as I do, I would tread with caution. This is largely why my last 5 bets were for 1 unit. Tonight my bet is Pats -7.5 (-125) 2 units
*All bets are between 1-4 units. To date there have been no parlays, teasers, moneylines etc…
ADD
GB -2.5 (3 units)
As great as the Broncos defense is, it is a minor miracle they are still undefeated given their offense is last in the league in TDs. This undefeated season has to end sometime (I suspect). The line is up to 3 or higher in some spots so now is the time. The public is all over GB and I understand why some wise guys might like Denver getting points at home, since they have the better defense and are undefeated. But I think the clock strikes midnight on Denver’s undefeated record when this game ends.
GB -2.5 (3 units)
As great as the Broncos defense is, it is a minor miracle they are still undefeated given their offense is last in the league in TDs. This undefeated season has to end sometime (I suspect). The line is up to 3 or higher in some spots so now is the time. The public is all over GB and I understand why some wise guys might like Denver getting points at home, since they have the better defense and are undefeated. But I think the clock strikes midnight on Denver’s undefeated record when this game ends.
I like both plays. Buying down makes a ton of sense here. As you said the game has landed on 7 a few times, but more importantly, chances of a push at 3 and 7 are 10% and 6% respectively. If you are going to push, pushing on these numbers makes the most sense. It's not profitable to buy points long term on any other numbers unless we know something everyone else doesn't. It's so hard to break out of the mentality of never buying points because everyone tells you not to, but this year for me it's been extremely profitable against teams who play each other closely. It's hard to forget that even though it was week 1 - Miami DID dish the patriots one of their only losses of the season (it was away). We are investing an extra 10-15 cents on the dollar here for the hook, it doesn't seem that unreasonable. Miami is one of the few teams it probably makes sense to do this with vs. Pats. I think it's not a huge deal, small investment in case of a push - probably close to the same EV if you play 7.5 or 7 long term. Personal preference but it makes the most sense it spots like this, Jets, or another good team who will play them close.
I'm not telling you anything you don't know - just saying I agree. Good write-up!
I'm not telling you anything you don't know - just saying I agree. Good write-up!
Yeah, BIG. a loose rule I try to use is never lay more than -125 when buying points. Once it gets to -130 or -135 I am less interested in buying points. Also, buying down from a 7.5 (or a 3.5) to me is more important than buying a hook. I like Oakland this week and I am wrestling with this stuff. I can get the line at 3 now, but it is way too expensive to buy the hook. (-135 or more, I think). So I am trying to predict the movement and see if the hook becomes more affordable. Anyway, buying points has saved me a total of 8 units in the last two weeks, so it is working for me so far (if only for Pats games)
I meant to note in my GB write-up, according to bookmaker Bob Scucci (from Behind the Bets podcast with Chad Millman) while some sharp money came in on Denver when the line went up to 3, it is was professionals who originally bet GB -2.5 prompting the line to move to 3. Maybe they were shooting for a middle, but in any event, I see value in this -2.5 line. I thought about the Denver TT but the books have no respect for the Broncos offense now (the team total will likely be 21.5)
This week: 1-0 + 2 units
On a 10-bet streak now.
Updated:
NFL 2015: YTD: 51-27-3 (+52.1 units)
4 unit plays: 5-1-1 (+15.6 units)
3 unit plays: 3-2 (+2.4 units)
2 unit plays: 22-7-1 (+28.4)
1 unit plays: 23-17-1 (+5.7 units)
Week 7 Results
4 unit plays: 2-0- (+8 units)
3 unit plays: n/a
2 unit plays: 3-1 + 3.8 units
1 unit plays: 5-1 (+3.9)
On a 10-bet streak now.
Updated:
NFL 2015: YTD: 51-27-3 (+52.1 units)
4 unit plays: 5-1-1 (+15.6 units)
3 unit plays: 3-2 (+2.4 units)
2 unit plays: 22-7-1 (+28.4)
1 unit plays: 23-17-1 (+5.7 units)
Week 7 Results
4 unit plays: 2-0- (+8 units)
3 unit plays: n/a
2 unit plays: 3-1 + 3.8 units
1 unit plays: 5-1 (+3.9)
ADD
Pitt – PK -- 2 units
Marvin Lewis is only 3-7-1 coming off of a bye week. Pitt somehow managed to stay above .500 without their QB these last few weeks, with Vick and even Landry. Pitt will be at home, against an undefeated division rival and will want this game like it is their Super Bowl. The Steelers need the game more, and with Big Ben are probably a comparably good roster. Certainly the offensive weapons are dangerous
Pitt – PK -- 2 units
Marvin Lewis is only 3-7-1 coming off of a bye week. Pitt somehow managed to stay above .500 without their QB these last few weeks, with Vick and even Landry. Pitt will be at home, against an undefeated division rival and will want this game like it is their Super Bowl. The Steelers need the game more, and with Big Ben are probably a comparably good roster. Certainly the offensive weapons are dangerous
Add
Oak + 3 (2 units)
I am not trying to be a needless contrarian here, by taking Oakland and CLE (I am also taking GB and lean Seattle who are also public teams) but I damn well know that short road favorites getting 80 percent of the money are not a strong statistical play. Oakland is playing as well as they have played in years and the Jets are travelling across the country after an emotionally-charged game vs the Pats. The Jets lost to the Pats, but so many media members and fans are praising them that I still expect a let-down from this moral victory. Luckily for the Jets, even if they lose this they face a cupcake schedule in the coming 4 weeks: Jax, Buffalo, Houston, Miami. So even if they lose this they could well be 8-3 in 5 weeks. This is a great spot for Oakland. Taking the points, and I hope I don’t need them.
Cle + 6 (2 units)
I happily bet against the Browns last week, but that was when they were on the road against a solid defense. Now they are at home vs a Cards team that has to lay almost a TD off a short week. The public is all over Arizona, who I think is good, but also overrated. Last week they failed to cover against the Ravens (by most spreads anyway). Many will argue that ATS loss was a fluke due to a strange series of events involving a missed PAT and a 2-pt conversion from the 7-yard line. I feel they were extremely lucky to be winning at all, as they benefited from some awful calls. The NFL apologized for one of the calls, there was the the lack of forward progress called on that 60-yard (or so) run by Johnson) , and a bad fumble call etc… At one point the penalty count was 8-1 in favor of the Cards and yet they were still losing for most of the first half. The point is, Arizona is good, but they aren’t the type of team that should be laying this many points on the road on a short week. And CLE has been a feisty home dog before, almost beating Denver in OT. Despite massive backing some books have taken this down to 5.5, which indicates that 1) this is a reverse line movement play that is often a good bet and 2) the time to bet is now – I doubt I will do much better than a 6. I don't care who plays QB. I am betting the number as much as the team.
Oak + 3 (2 units)
I am not trying to be a needless contrarian here, by taking Oakland and CLE (I am also taking GB and lean Seattle who are also public teams) but I damn well know that short road favorites getting 80 percent of the money are not a strong statistical play. Oakland is playing as well as they have played in years and the Jets are travelling across the country after an emotionally-charged game vs the Pats. The Jets lost to the Pats, but so many media members and fans are praising them that I still expect a let-down from this moral victory. Luckily for the Jets, even if they lose this they face a cupcake schedule in the coming 4 weeks: Jax, Buffalo, Houston, Miami. So even if they lose this they could well be 8-3 in 5 weeks. This is a great spot for Oakland. Taking the points, and I hope I don’t need them.
Cle + 6 (2 units)
I happily bet against the Browns last week, but that was when they were on the road against a solid defense. Now they are at home vs a Cards team that has to lay almost a TD off a short week. The public is all over Arizona, who I think is good, but also overrated. Last week they failed to cover against the Ravens (by most spreads anyway). Many will argue that ATS loss was a fluke due to a strange series of events involving a missed PAT and a 2-pt conversion from the 7-yard line. I feel they were extremely lucky to be winning at all, as they benefited from some awful calls. The NFL apologized for one of the calls, there was the the lack of forward progress called on that 60-yard (or so) run by Johnson) , and a bad fumble call etc… At one point the penalty count was 8-1 in favor of the Cards and yet they were still losing for most of the first half. The point is, Arizona is good, but they aren’t the type of team that should be laying this many points on the road on a short week. And CLE has been a feisty home dog before, almost beating Denver in OT. Despite massive backing some books have taken this down to 5.5, which indicates that 1) this is a reverse line movement play that is often a good bet and 2) the time to bet is now – I doubt I will do much better than a 6. I don't care who plays QB. I am betting the number as much as the team.
McCown is a game time decision. I like Cle+6.5 only if its McCown. Manziel......too erratic for me.
BOL.
BOL.
Cleveland Browns head coach Mike Pettine said quarterback Josh McCown will be a game-day decision to start Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals.McCown did not practice Wednesday but was able to throw later in the day. He worked with the team on a limited basis Thursday and Friday."
