Chonce's NFL Picks (Week 8)

[chonce]

Here is the link to last week (7-2-1 + 5.8 units)

Year to Date: 46-20 + 21.3 units

I will post plays as I make them. On the fence about TNF, but I do think I see value in the London game. Anyway, good luck to all.

I am soliciting opinions (about anything really, since talking football is what this forum is about) but specifically about the Jax/Tenn game. I have liked Tennessee, especially on defense, but was surprised so many books gave them the hook and a -3.5 line for this game. I don't think I am confortable laying the hook, but the fact that books opened with it suggests to me that they were really keen to get Jax money, meaning either the book is betting on Tenn, or the sharps pounded them hard at 3. But this is speculative.

And I haven't even mentioned the Xs and Os of these 2 teams.

 

[thesportsforecaster]

Here is the link to last week (7-2-1 + 5.8 units)

Year to Date: 46-20 + 21.3 units

I will post plays as I make them. On the fence about TNF, but I do think I see value in the London game. Anyway, good luck to all.

I am soliciting opinions (about anything really, since talking football is what this forum is about) but specifically about the Jax/Tenn game. I have liked Tennessee, especially on defense, but was surprised so many books gave them the hook and a -3.5 line for this game. I don't think I am confortable laying the hook, but the fact that books opened with it suggests to me that they were really keen to get Jax money, meaning either the book is betting on Tenn, or the sharps pounded them hard at 3. But this is speculative.

And I haven't even mentioned the Xs and Os of these 2 teams.

Hey chonce nice week 7 !!! Too me the Thursday game is a pass there are too many positives and negatives for both teams that cancel each other out, and I can't come up with any value to play a side !!! Both Mariota and Bortles have been brutally inconsistent they have flashed some brilliance and then make bone headed plays, they are having a similar season to say the least !!! The Titans do have the better running game, but to me I can't trust either team, the team that makes the least bone headed moves wins and covers, but I can't say which one ??? There are way better games to bet this week, so far I have 5-6 plays Iam looking at !! This is a very tough week I have a lot of toss out games, Vegas and the bookmaker's have made the lines awfully tight this week, you have to be careful not to fall into the dreaded trap!!!

cheers


tsf

 

[chonce]

Wash + 3 - 1 unit
NE - 6 (-118) - 2 units
SEA - 2.5 (-115) - 1 unit

As you can see I am with the squares on 2 of these (I would assume). But I am ok with it. I also like Detroit but the line is at 2.5 and I see no reason to rush. Detroit has been sneaky good, and have covered for me vs Wash and Philly recently. I will see how things shake out and make a decision then. Perhaps I may look at a TT or a FH line or ML, rather than bite at 2.5. I have a small hunch the bears may blow up every teaser in football, but don't think I will play on it.

A few sentences on my rationales....

On Wash:

When I first saw this line I thought it was actually in Cinci I didn't think the line was out of sorts (I would've guessed 4). So I was surprised to see it was on a neutral field. Cinci is coming off a win, but if you look back, they have been a mess before that. Wash has been feisty, covering vs Phi (to my profit) and were damn close to a road cover last week. I think these teams are about equal so I am taking the points.

On SEA:

With the squares on two of these. but I think there is some value here in light of their horrific offense lately. Bob Scucci, who is the chief maker for the Orleans, said the ticket count is much more equal than he expected because the public prefers a big offense to a stagnant one. And while I don't trust the consensus numbers on Wunderdog or Covers as all that helpful, for what its worth, they show a 52-48 split. So maybe the public is not all that confident in the Hawks. It is obvious Wilson is having a bad year, and is not scrambling. I think they set things right in NO in a big way. Plus, if the line goes up I may be able to attack a middle at 3.

On NE:

I am a homer but I am not convinced this is not a homer pick. NE's historical dominance of Buffalo is crazy. I forget the number -- but it is like 27-6 or something (and of those wins, one was a game where all the starters rested in week 17, the other vs a Jacoby Brissett with no thumb). Tom Brady in particular, is 25-3 with 62 TDs and a 100+ QB rating vs Buffalo. That is not a typo.

I can't imagine NE not showing up for this game and getting swept by this team. I was pondering waiting and going for a FH play, but by the time those games are released with will almost assuredly be above 3, so I am pouncing now. I am playing this with confidence and before it goes up to 7. Sharps play against NE every week, including vs Pitt. But NE has only lost one game ATS and I still think the book isn't catching up with them.


Going to keep my card (or try to) a little small since I am on a roll and don't want to put so much liability on one week. I will probably add something, especially if I see 2nd half value, or values on team totals or first half lines when they are released. But I have to admit, I think most of these lines are pretty good, and hard to figure.

 

[seldomseen]

Washington is one that stands out to me this week.

Thoughts on Phi/Dal? I like philly here. Teams on a 5-0 ats streak are 18-11 the next week as home favs.

 

[phillyfranko]

I like Philly also , Dakk will get major pressure from Philly front 7 ,and is due for some bad plays Int's , I see Eags winning easy here 27-14 F Also Like Pats and SD and Ariz ...keep it small , tough week to Capp'.

 

[Slurve~Ball]

Just a thought about SEA... they played primetime. And next 2 games after NWO are primetime. If they were going to let the foot off the gas for a few plays, this weekend might be it. All the best with your plays.

 

[indiana]

chonce..........BOL with all your action this weekend............indy

 

[chonce]

Washington is one that stands out to me this week.

Thoughts on Phi/Dal? I like philly here. Teams on a 5-0 ats streak are 18-11 the next week as home favs.

I haven't formed an opinion on PHI/Dallas. Sort of like the Thursday game, I could make a case either way. Tough one.

 

[chonce]

Just a thought about SEA... they played primetime. And next 2 games after NWO are primetime. If they were going to let the foot off the gas for a few plays, this weekend might be it. All the best with your plays.

Certainly possible. And, the division is so weak that they don't really even need to win this one. But, I feel like their foot was already off the gas last week. Scoring 0 TDs and 6 points in a tie is not exactly something to boost the ego. That is my hope anyway.

 

[chonce]

I like Philly also , Dakk will get major pressure from Philly front 7 ,and is due for some bad plays Int's , I see Eags winning easy here 27-14 F Also Like Pats and SD and Ariz ...keep it small , tough week to Capp'.

Good luck. Agree it is a tricky week. As I said above, I haven't formed an opinion on that PHI/Dallas game yet. But I will take another look at all these games once I catch on work and hit the weekend.

 

[chonce]

Washington is one that stands out to me this week.

Thoughts on Phi/Dal? I like philly here. Teams on a 5-0 ats streak are 18-11 the next week as home favs.

Wait, isn't Dallas at home? Wouldn't that trend favor the home team? Or am I missing something?

Anyway, best of luck either way.

 

[seldomseen]

Yea I fucked up. 11-18.

 

[chonce]

Yea I fucked up. 11-18.

Gotcha, thanks!

 

[powerz]

Chonce;

Great year so far, well Done

Did you really say "you felt the seattle foot was off the gas last week in Arizona?"

Good contrarian thinking this week backing the Hawks, but this the let down spot after playing Arizona, their divisional perr the last few years.
Hawks without CAM Chancellor are tough to bet on

 

[chonce]

Chonce;

Great year so far, well Done

Did you really say "you felt the seattle foot was off the gas last week in Arizona?"

Good contrarian thinking this week backing the Hawks, but this the let down spot after playing Arizona, their divisional perr the last few years.
Hawks without CAM Chancellor are tough to bet on

Well, what I mean it is it is not a scenario where they are coming off a big win, and overlooking a shitty opponent with bigger games ahead. They must have a bad feeling in their guts after that trade so I don't see this as a typical let-down spot. But again, this is extremely speculative!

 

[chonce]

Add:

Jax/Ten OVER 43 (-117, 5 Dimes) - 1 unit

Jax is giving up about 26 ppg while Tenn is scoring a hair under 21. But they in their last 3 they are scoring 28 and giving up 26. Jax's offense has sucked, for the most part, in every game except for vs Indy (which, like this game, was a nationally televised game). But I think that 1) the total is deflated by the fact that Thursday Night Football is often low-scoring and 2) does not sufficiently account for the 2 injuries to the Titans secondary, which was flawed to begin with. And Jax does have talent at WR. Also, I am buying a half point because 43 is a key number for a total.

But, be warned, I may chasing some action on the only game of the night and -- as I said before last week -- I am due for a regression to the mean.

Good luck all..

 

[chonce]

Jax/Tenn OVER covers.

Week to Date: 1-0 + 1 unit
Year to date: 47-20 + 22.3

 

[Jtd64]

Nice call tonight friend - like your write ups and humbleness about your record - keep it up!

 

[chonce]

Thanks guys.

Add

Det + 2 (-115) 1 unit


My Card:

Jax/Tenn OVER + 1

NE - 6 (-118) 2 units
Sea -2.5 (-115) - 1 unit
Det + 2 (-115) - 1 unit

Good luck everyone.

 

[joejoe3268]

Thanks my man.......Knowing you work hard, thanks for sharing.