Chonce's NFL Picks (Week 7)

[chonce]

It is Monday so my record my week 6 record may change a bit if I make a play (here is a link to my week 6 thread). As of now i have no MNF play but it is possible I do make one, especially a 2nd half bet. But I want to play this early because I feel like it may well go down if the sharps play the UNDER early (as they sometimes do). If I make a MNF play I will post it in week 6 thread, and amend my record accordingly.

Thursday Night (week 7):

CHI/GB UNDER 47 - 1 unit

Week 6 record (pending any MNF plays): 5-3 + 1.4 units
Season to date: 39-18 + 15.5 units

 

[chonce]

Add

Broncos - 7 (-120) - 1 unit

I am taking this now because I feel quite certain it won't get any cheaper. I know the public will also be Denver, but I just think the Broncos defense will kill the Texans.

 

[chonce]

Add

Det -1 -- 2 units
Jags -1 -- 1 unit
KC - 6 (-115) - 2 units
Phi + 3 - 1 unit

I am also almost certain to be SD, but since ATL is such a public team I am going to wait and see if I can get a 7. I need to take a closer look at the morning game, but think I lean the Rams (hoping it gets to 3). And I lean Arizona for Sunday night, but I am going to wait on that as well.

Good luck all.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

I might ride Philly for a 3rd str week......good luck with all your plays!

 

[chonce]

Thanks TCG,

I am actually coming off two straight weeks of betting against Philly (both wins). But this spot seems like a good one to me. Minnesota isn't going to go 16-0 and a road loss to a top 3 defense seems likely to me. The last 2 weeks Philly was favored on the road, which I don't think is a good price.

Anyway, Thursday night UNDER 47 hits.

For the week: 1-0 + 1 unit

For the season: 40 - 18 + 16.5 units (68.9 percent).

I am due for a regression to the mean. No one hits almost 70 percent of their bets in a year, So tread lightly (as Walter White once said).

 

[chonce]

Add
SD + 6.5 (-115)

I was hoping the line would go up to 7 but, in fact, it is down to 6 (-110) at a few shops, so I am going to jump on it now at 6.5 (-115). Not buying to 7. My (not always followed) rule of thumb is to never pay higher than -120). And honestly, statistically it probably is something that should never be done. Anyway, classic case of trying to suck up some value as I think ATL is overvalued. Even losing last week they covered easily and impressed. But SD is a good, tough luck team and ATL is known for hot starts and than collapses. If this line was made in September what, would it be ATL -3? Maybe less.

 

[chonce]

Card:

TNF

CHI/GB UNDER 47 (win) + 1 unit

Sunday 1pm

Phi + 3 - 1 unit
KC -6 (-115) - 2 units
Det - 1 - 2 units
Jax - 1 - 1 unit

4 pm

SD + 6.5 (-115) - 1 unit


Still studying up on the London game. As of now i lean STL and UNDER but betting on STL sucks because they can be so bad. Still on the fence. Also like Arizona I think, but no rush. There seems to be no value on my Patriots as a big road fav, although some Steeler fans are shitting on Landry so hard it is tempting.

 

[thesportsforecaster]

Card:

TNF

CHI/GB UNDER 47 (win) + 1 unit

Sunday 1pm

Phi + 3 - 1 unit
KC -6 (-115) - 2 units
Det - 1 - 2 units
Jax - 1 - 1 unit

4 pm

SD + 6.5 (-115) - 1 unit


Still studying up on the London game. As of now i lean STL and UNDER but betting on STL sucks because they can be so bad. Still on the fence. Also like Arizona I think, but no rush. There seems to be no value on my Patriots as a big road fav, although some Steeler fans are shitting on Landry so hard it is tempting.

Nice call on the under chonce !!!!


cheers


tsf

 

[BoutMyMoney]

Chonce that is a fantastic looking card... good luck and great work

 

[chonce]

Thanks guys. I forgot Denver in my card. Let me amend:



Card:

TNF

CHI/GB UNDER 47 (win) + 1 unit

Sunday 1pm

Phi + 3 - 1 unit
KC -6 (-115) - 2 units
Det - 1 - 2 units
Jax - 1 - 1 unit

4 pm

SD + 6.5 (-115) - 1 unit


MNF

Denver -7 (-120) - 1 unit

 

[indiana]

chonce.........good looking plays...........lov K.C. and Den.........BOL with your weekend action...........indy

 

[chonce]

Add:

NYG/LAR UNDER 46 (-114) - 1 unit

I lean Rams but with it down to 2.5 I think I will just go with the UNDER. Good luck all.



Card:



CHI/GB UNDER 47 (win) + 1 unit

9:30

NYG/LAR UNDER 46 (-114) - 1 unit

Sunday 1pm

Phi + 3 - 1 unit
KC -6 (-115) - 2 units
Det - 1 - 2 units
Jax - 1 - 1 unit

4 pm

SD + 6.5 (-115) - 1 unit


MNF

Denver -7 (-120) - 1 unit

 

[XSPower]

Good luck today!!!

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

For the season: 40 - 18 + 16.5 units (68.9 percent).

Very nice.....Very Very nice

There is no regression when you have the grip and you are on top of your game and it is obvious that you are.

 

[chonce]

Add

Ari -.5 - 1 unit

Like this matchup and the reverse line movement has made it increasingly less expensive. I will likely be watching WestWorld though.

 

[bigwang]

Good luck today and rest of season.

 

[chonce]

Add

NE - 7 (-120) - 1 unit

I am biased so I may well be off-base here. A lot of trends suggest Pitt and laying 7 points on the road is really not good form. But I am 2-0 so far this week and keep being told by Steeler fans that they are cooked with Landry. And on Xs and 0s it is hard not to like NE.

But, as I said, I a homer take my .02 cents with a grain of salt (or not at all). Good luck all!

 

[MGMan]

Great year so far Chonce. Keep it up. What a mess so far in the Vikings/Philly game.

 

[fballgenius]

Choncey, glad to see you on 'zona. Hope Palmer can stay clean and complete a few passes.

 

[chonce]

2-1-1 in the 1 pm games + 1.9 units.

3-1-1 +2.9 units for the day.

And 4-1-1 + 3.9 units for the week.

So if my math is right: Year to Date: 41-19-1 + 19.3 units

Good luck all....