Chonce's NFL Picks (week 4)

[chonce]

Last week: 5-3 + 1.6 units

YTD: 22-12 + 6.9 units

TB/MIA UNDER 23.5 (1st Half) - 1 unit

It was either this or the UNDER 46.5 for the game, but it seems (anecdotally) that teams can start out slow on Thursdays and there is less of a risk of garbage points this way (and Miami loves garbage-time points). Cinci' defense is better than stats show -- Denver had two TDs from their defense, which has inflated their points allowed by a lot. Moreover, virtually of Miami's scoring has come either 1) vs the Browns or 2) garbage time vs New England when they were down 31-3 in the third and scored 3 tds in the 2nd half).

I am not taking a side. Cinci should be able to handle Miami, but Thursdays are weird and a quick Miami TD makes covering 7.5 or 8 points a struggle in what I expect to be a relatively low scoring game. Maybe something will stick out at half time. But, much as I like Cinci in this spot, I don't like them enough to lay 8 points.

Min - 4.5 (-115) 1 unit (MNF)

On Behind the Bets Bob Scucci said this line could climb up to 6, so I am making my play now.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Good luck dude!

 

[nflcapper]

Bol!

 

[chonce]

Thanks guys, back at ya.

 

[KingEleven]

good luck CHONCE

 

[chonce]

All right -- the hook saves me. 1-0 for the week and 23-12 + 7.9 units for the year.

Will check out 2nd half to see if I like anything. I doubt I will take the UNDER again.

 

[Jtd64]

Nice hit - tailed you but only got it at 23. Keep it up!

 

[chonce]

Oh bummer...if Tannehill didn't fumble there you are probably OK.

 

[chonce]

No 2nd half play for me. If I had to bet I would lean UNDER and Cinci Moneyline (-125). But I am happy with the first half under and don't want to get greedy. I will just watch the rest of the game.

 

[seldomseen]

My line on Min is -6. Not sure what I'm missing that its 4.5.

 

[chonce]

My line on Min is -6. Not sure what I'm missing that its 4.5.

The same line I got yesterday at 5 Dimes is available now: it is -5 at (-110) or -4.5 (-115).

Don't know where your 6 is at. http://www.covers.com/odds/linehistory.aspx?eventId=51863&sport=NFL Seems like it is still at 5 everywhere. 5 isn't a key number so it is cheap to buy down to a 4.5, at least at 5 Dimes. But literally, as we speak, -4.5 (-115) is still available at the book I got it at, and that was late yesterday.

https://www.5dimes.eu/BbGameSelection.asp

 

[chonce]

+5-110-5-110​

Oddshark still have all the books at 5 too as of now:

http://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/new-york-minnesota-odds-october-3-2016-728663

+5-110-5-110​

 

[chonce]

 

[seldomseen]

-6 is what I think the line should be not necessarily what I'm being offered.

 

[chonce]

Oh my bad Seldomseen. I thought you were saying I was providing an inaccurate line. No worries. I agree.


Add:

NE -6.5 (-125) - 2 units

Local media is saying Jimmy G will start. I like that news (though I don't like paying -125, I think it is worth it at the moment). I will write more about this but major factors are 1) Patriots recent history vs the Bills (21-6 or something); 2) BB vs Rex and 3) Rex's horrendous straight up record following a win. Also, the Patriots are a terrific home team. I think it may be worth making a first half bet -- the Pat's have been a great early starter -- but I will wait and see.

 

[chonce]

In case I am not up in time to post:

Add:

Indy/Jax (1st Half) UNDER 24.5 - 1 unit
Houston -4 (-117) - 2 units
Detroit Team Total UNDER 26 (-115) - 1 unit
Den/TB OVER 42.5 - 1 unit



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Total Card (so far)

Thurs
Mia/Cinci (1st Half) UNDER 23.5 - 1 unit (W)

9:30 am
Indy/Jax (1st Half) UNDER 24.5 - 1 unit

1 pm
Patriots -6.5 (-125) - 2 units
Houston -4 (-117) - 2 units
Detroit Team Total UNDER 26 (-115) - 1 unit

4 pm
Den/TB OVER 42.5 - 1 unit

MNF
Minn- 4.5 (-115) - 1 unit

Lean SF, TB and Oak/B-More OVER but not sure if I will pull the trigger. Also want to see team totals, most of which aren't out yet. Good luck all.

Week:

1-0 + 1 unit
YTD:

23-12 + 7.9 units

 

[ReBornNJ]

Best of luck chonce!

 

[chonce]

Thanks Reborn. It was not easy to wake up for this game, but gotta do it.

 

[seldomseen]

good luck!

 

[chonce]

Well local media was wrong, Jimmy G is not starting and the line has plummeted to 3.5.

I still think the Pat's should take care of business but I feel pretty foolish getting such a bad line. Thanks WEEI for the bad story.