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Jax +7 (-120) 2 units
Jax is not a great team, but they are about .500 ATS, as are the Texans. But Jax has only lost by more than 6 once in their last 9 games. And the Texans are going to clinch regardless of the outcome -- they would need 7 games to go a certain way for the Colts to overtake them. Clowney is out, Watt is nursing a broken hand, Hoyer is coming off a concussion. I suspect they will be very careful and will eventually bench starters. This is a lot of points for a team that doesn't really need the game so I will take them.
I am looking strongly at Tenn/Indy but waiting for a line. If Indy starts Lindley I will look very hard at Tennessee. I will also keep a close eye on the 2nd half lines for NE. If they have a decent lead they may turtle a bit. Their Team Total is 28.5 which is pretty high given how conservative they have been on offense. But I am going to wait and see where the value lies in the 2nd add.
Jax +7 (-120) 2 units
Jax is not a great team, but they are about .500 ATS, as are the Texans. But Jax has only lost by more than 6 once in their last 9 games. And the Texans are going to clinch regardless of the outcome -- they would need 7 games to go a certain way for the Colts to overtake them. Clowney is out, Watt is nursing a broken hand, Hoyer is coming off a concussion. I suspect they will be very careful and will eventually bench starters. This is a lot of points for a team that doesn't really need the game so I will take them.
I am looking strongly at Tenn/Indy but waiting for a line. If Indy starts Lindley I will look very hard at Tennessee. I will also keep a close eye on the 2nd half lines for NE. If they have a decent lead they may turtle a bit. Their Team Total is 28.5 which is pretty high given how conservative they have been on offense. But I am going to wait and see where the value lies in the 2nd add.
One thought on the SNF matchup -- do the teams really want to win? I know the #seed gets you a home game, but if the loser gets the 5th seed, they get to play Wash. I would rather play @Washington than at home vs SEA. I guess I need to know how the Seahawks game relates to this and if it matters (ie if clinch the 5th seed this is a moot point).
My rationale for Buffalo is as follows:
People seem to forget that Buffalo handled the Jets easily in New York. I don't know why they are 3 point dogs here. I understand they are out of it, but you can't accuse them the Bills of having no motivation. Also, Powell and Ivory are both banged up. The Jets have won 5 in a row but the only good team they beat was NE. And I think that win is a little overrated -- the Patriots played incredibly conservative once they lost their starting tackles. They didn't try to score during 2 minute drills to end the half, the kicked off in OT -- not a normal Patriot's team at full strength. All of this said, I think Rex is mostly a buffoon. But he will show up vs the Jets.
People seem to forget that Buffalo handled the Jets easily in New York. I don't know why they are 3 point dogs here. I understand they are out of it, but you can't accuse them the Bills of having no motivation. Also, Powell and Ivory are both banged up. The Jets have won 5 in a row but the only good team they beat was NE. And I think that win is a little overrated -- the Patriots played incredibly conservative once they lost their starting tackles. They didn't try to score during 2 minute drills to end the half, the kicked off in OT -- not a normal Patriot's team at full strength. All of this said, I think Rex is mostly a buffoon. But he will show up vs the Jets.
I am tempted to play MIA because I can tell you from NE that it seems the priority is just to stay healthy and not to go all out to win. That said, they will likely dominate in the first half just because Miami sucks. So I might wait for the 2nd half and look for value in either Miami, the UNDER or the Pats TT UNDER.
My rationale for KC -6.5 (-115)
I bet this early to get the good number. KC has won 9 in a row and has covered in 7 of them. One of those games was @ Oakland where they won on the road by 14. They have every reason to win; if they win they will make sure they get at least the 5 seed (meaning a game vs the Texans instead of probably Cinci). They could also still catch Denver. Denver is a long shot to lose SU, but it is not impossible and the best part is they won't know the fate of the Broncos because they play on Monday. Meanwhile Oak has only covered in 1 of its last 5 and barely squeaked by SD at home last week. This just seems like a good spot -- my favorite game on the board today, hence my 4 unit bet (which is the most I ever bet).
I bet this early to get the good number. KC has won 9 in a row and has covered in 7 of them. One of those games was @ Oakland where they won on the road by 14. They have every reason to win; if they win they will make sure they get at least the 5 seed (meaning a game vs the Texans instead of probably Cinci). They could also still catch Denver. Denver is a long shot to lose SU, but it is not impossible and the best part is they won't know the fate of the Broncos because they play on Monday. Meanwhile Oak has only covered in 1 of its last 5 and barely squeaked by SD at home last week. This just seems like a good spot -- my favorite game on the board today, hence my 4 unit bet (which is the most I ever bet).
My rationale for PHI/NY UNDER 51.5
My secret weapon this year has been playing Phi Team Total UNDERS. I have been playing them most weeks when they are above 24 and it almost always wins. But because of the Chip situation and the fact they are on the road against the Giants (who might want to send Coughlin out win a win) they are dogs and the team total is only 23.5 (you can probably get 24 at 5 dimes with extra juice). I think 24 is a key number with totals so rather than take the PHI TT I will go for the game total which is an inflated 51.5. The Giants have scored 20 or fewer in 3 of the last 5. Phi has scored 24 or less in 4 of the last 5 and the one time they went OVER was when they got two ST TDs and a Defensive TD vs NE, which was an abnormal game and didn't reflect a strong offense.
And, most of all, I don't need these teams to play great defense. 52 points is a lot even when teams look decent on offense. If even one offense doesn't show up today the chances of this hitting are strong. I could see a scenario where a Chip-less eagles feel free and blow up on offense, but I think it is more than likely the opposite will happen, especially with their weak QB and WRs. The Giants are certainly capable of scoring a lot, but they are inconsistent -- as I noted they have scored 20 or less in 3 of the last 5 (and I can afford for them to score more than that and keep an UNDER pace -- their TT is 28 (28!). So even if they score 28 there is a decent chance this game will go under. I have two units on this but I am thinking of adding to it. My biggest fear is the PHI defense just implodes as they did vs Wash (38) and Arizona (40). But those teams are red hot, the Giants aren't. They are an inconsistent team capable of lots of scoring, but equally capable of mediocrity. And mediocrity is what I expect from both team today. I see a final of something like 23-20 Giants.
My secret weapon this year has been playing Phi Team Total UNDERS. I have been playing them most weeks when they are above 24 and it almost always wins. But because of the Chip situation and the fact they are on the road against the Giants (who might want to send Coughlin out win a win) they are dogs and the team total is only 23.5 (you can probably get 24 at 5 dimes with extra juice). I think 24 is a key number with totals so rather than take the PHI TT I will go for the game total which is an inflated 51.5. The Giants have scored 20 or fewer in 3 of the last 5. Phi has scored 24 or less in 4 of the last 5 and the one time they went OVER was when they got two ST TDs and a Defensive TD vs NE, which was an abnormal game and didn't reflect a strong offense.
And, most of all, I don't need these teams to play great defense. 52 points is a lot even when teams look decent on offense. If even one offense doesn't show up today the chances of this hitting are strong. I could see a scenario where a Chip-less eagles feel free and blow up on offense, but I think it is more than likely the opposite will happen, especially with their weak QB and WRs. The Giants are certainly capable of scoring a lot, but they are inconsistent -- as I noted they have scored 20 or less in 3 of the last 5 (and I can afford for them to score more than that and keep an UNDER pace -- their TT is 28 (28!). So even if they score 28 there is a decent chance this game will go under. I have two units on this but I am thinking of adding to it. My biggest fear is the PHI defense just implodes as they did vs Wash (38) and Arizona (40). But those teams are red hot, the Giants aren't. They are an inconsistent team capable of lots of scoring, but equally capable of mediocrity. And mediocrity is what I expect from both team today. I see a final of something like 23-20 Giants.
Correction: Denver plays concurrently with KC. I wrongly thought Denver played Monday. Technically speaking if Denver is up 30-0 KC could start resting starters. But that likely wouldn't be until late. Further, I don't know how the KC tiebreakers work with the Jets or Pitt but if they go 10-6 instead of 11-5 they may well end up as the 6th seed. I would probably prefer to play @ Houston than @Cinci (although it is up for debate given the CInci injuries at QB). Man, these tricky things make week 17 so tricky. You have to handicap motivation. I recall in week 17 last year the Pat's had sealed up the 1 seed and had a meaningless home game vs Buffalo. The line was bet from 11 to 5 and either way it felt like free money to bet on Buffalo.
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Buff FH Team Total OVER 9 (-120)
This line is at 10 (-105) at one of my shops, but when I saw -9 (120) I feel like there is value in this play. As noted above, I like the Bills this week to play a good game and cover, maybe win. If they are going to do that they will need to score and I don't think 10 points is too much to ask for the team in the first half. The Jets give up an average of 10.2 points in the FH while the Bills score about 12.2. Basically if you trust the Bills to cover, you probably think they can score at a pace that will make this total go OVER.
Buff FH Team Total OVER 9 (-120)
This line is at 10 (-105) at one of my shops, but when I saw -9 (120) I feel like there is value in this play. As noted above, I like the Bills this week to play a good game and cover, maybe win. If they are going to do that they will need to score and I don't think 10 points is too much to ask for the team in the first half. The Jets give up an average of 10.2 points in the FH while the Bills score about 12.2. Basically if you trust the Bills to cover, you probably think they can score at a pace that will make this total go OVER.
For clarity's sake, here is my card so far (bets are -110 unless otherwise noted):
1 pm
Buffalo +3 - 2 units
Jacksonville +7 (-120) - 2units
PHI/NYG UNDER 51.5 - 2 units
Buffalo First Half Team Total OVER 9 (-120) - 2 units
4 pm
KC -6.5 (-115) - 4 units
Leans (but no bets): NYJ/Bills OVER 41; Tenn +3.5; NO +6; CHI +2.5
Possible plays in 2nd half:
I will be looking hard for value in NE 2nd half, probably UNDER, TT UNDER NE or Miami, depending on circumstances and the lines obviously, I feel the Pats will be quite conservative in this game and especially so if they have a lead in the 2nd half.
YTD: 96-84-4 +14.3 units
1 pm
Buffalo +3 - 2 units
Jacksonville +7 (-120) - 2units
PHI/NYG UNDER 51.5 - 2 units
Buffalo First Half Team Total OVER 9 (-120) - 2 units
4 pm
KC -6.5 (-115) - 4 units
Leans (but no bets): NYJ/Bills OVER 41; Tenn +3.5; NO +6; CHI +2.5
Possible plays in 2nd half:
I will be looking hard for value in NE 2nd half, probably UNDER, TT UNDER NE or Miami, depending on circumstances and the lines obviously, I feel the Pats will be quite conservative in this game and especially so if they have a lead in the 2nd half.
YTD: 96-84-4 +14.3 units
This is the last week so I will make another play. Add:
