Chonce NFL Picks (Week 9)

[chonce]

Sorry for such an early post, but I want to jump on a line early. Here is a link to week 8. I went 3-2 + 1.8 units for the week.

Year to Date: 49-22 + 23.1 units


PHI + 3 (-115) - 2 units (5 Dimes)

I know NYG is coming off a bye, but coming off a London game. I don't have a lot of faith in the Giant's coaching to use these 2 weeks to game plan effectively and I don't see these teams as equal (which is what the line suggests is almost the case). Yes, they are both 4-3. But look at the point differential: PHI is + 62, while Giants are -8. Anyway, I am concerned I may not be the only one who sees it this way, and I don't want to lose the chance to get a 3. I should note I have been wrong when I try to predict line movement (I took New England and SEA early last week and the lines stayed the same or even dropped a bit). So I may be wrong. But 3 is such a key number that it is worth the risk.

Good luck with MNF tonight. I don't think I am making a wager, but if I change my mind I ill post it in the week 8 thread (and update my record here and there).

 

[chonce]

Add:

TB + 4.5 (-115) - 1 unit
KC - 7 (-125) - 2 units
CLE +7.5 (-120) - 1 unit
GB - 7 (-120) - 1 unit
SF + 3.5 - 1 unit

Also lean TB/ATL UNDER, Denver and Buffalo, but perhaps not enough to wager.

Card:

TNF
TB + 4.5 (-115)

Sunday (early)

PHI + 3 (-115) 2 units
CLE + 7.5 (-120) - 1 unit
KC - 7 (-125) 2 units

Sunday (late)

SF + 3.5 - 1 unit
GB - 7 (-120) - 1 unit

Also lean Denver and ATL/TB UNDER 51 but still mulling my options.

 

[indiana]

chonce...........solid YTD #'s.............continued success with this weeks action............lov K.C...........indy

 

[XSPower]

Good luck tonight...

 

[chonce]

For the week: 0-1 -1.1 unit

49-23 + 22 units

I should've waited on the SF line... had move up to 4.5 in some shops. Not crazy about seeing that movement for a couple reasons, but what can ya do...

 

[SpreadAnalytics]

Awesome YTD Chonce....Keep up the good work!!






-SPREAD ANALYTICS

 

[XSPower]

:toast:

 

[chonce]

Thanks guys.

Still leaning Den and Buff but have been playing devil's advocate and can make a case for OAK, so I may just pass. OAK is probably overvalued a bit, but that o-line is so good. And their weakness, pass defense, is up against Denver's weakness, pass offense. So passing for now. As far as Buff, the line looks a little too good to be true. So no plays there yet and maybe not at all.

Add:

Ten/SD OVER 47 (-119) - 1 unit

Tenn scores an average of 22 a game, but that is deflated from early in the season. They have scored 30 ppg in the last 3, and the last 5 team totals are: 36, 26, 28, 30, 21. SD scores 26+ ppg but 2 of their last 3 have been against Denver, so I think that should be graded on a curve. (although I am sure the statistical models used by the firms that counsel the books take strength of opponent into account so this may not be such a sharp analysis)*. I cam very close to betting the FH OVR since both teams score more in the first half than the 2nd, but decided to stick with the game total when I realized SD gives up a pretty starting 15.9 points in the 2nd half, including an extraordinary 10.1 in the 4th QTR.

* Does any stat nerd have any insights to if these models take this into account (or if anyone knows anything about these models, it could be instructive and worth a thread of its own!).

Good luck all.

 

[chonce]

Card (I like to have it in one place for my sake):

TNF
TB + 4.5 (-115) (L) -1.15

Sunday (early)

PHI + 3 (-115) 2 units
CLE + 7.5 (-120) - 1 unit
KC - 7 (-125) 2 units

Sunday (late)

SF + 3.5 - 1 unit
GB - 7 (-120) - 1 unit
Ten/SD OVER 47 (-119) - 1 unit


Record:For the week: 0-1 -1.1 unit

49-23 + 22 units

 

[cashducats]

Thanks guys.

Still leaning Den and Buff but have been playing devil's advocate and can make a case for OAK, so I may just pass. OAK is probably overvalued a bit, but that o-line is so good. And their weakness, pass defense, is up against Denver's weakness, pass offense. So passing for now. As far as Buff, the line looks a little too good to be true. So no plays there yet and maybe not at all.

Add:

Ten/SD OVER 47 (-119) - 1 unit

Tenn scores an average of 22 a game, but that is deflated from early in the season. They have scored 30 ppg in the last 3, and the last 5 team totals are: 36, 26, 28, 30, 21. SD scores 26+ ppg but 2 of their last 3 have been against Denver, so I think that should be graded on a curve. (although I am sure the statistical models used by the firms that counsel the books take strength of opponent into account so this may not be such a sharp analysis)*. I cam very close to betting the FH OVR since both teams score more in the first half than the 2nd, but decided to stick with the game total when I realized SD gives up a pretty starting 15.9 points in the 2nd half, including an extraordinary 10.1 in the 4th QTR.

* Does any stat nerd have any insights to if these models take this into account (or if anyone knows anything about these models, it could be instructive and worth a thread of its own!).

Good luck all.

This Makes a lot of sense

 

[MrIntense]

Here is a stat for that Tenn/SD Over.

Team off of a Thursday game that went over at home are 37-8 Over the next game since 2009. (Tenn)

Good luck to us!

 

[chonce]

Add

Pitt/Bal (2nd Half) UNDER 23.5 (-113) - 1 unit

 

[chonce]

Ouch, in the 1 pm games:

0-4 - 7.1 units. Talk about regressing to the mean! I also lost THursday! So 5 straight losses. For the week: 0-5 - 8.25 units

For the season: 49-27 + 14.9 units

I will double check to make sure I have the juice right, but this is about where I am at.

I also have 3 bets at 4 pm and am not feeling confident, so fade me if you can! The Colts are already up 7!