Chiefs @ Colts (-1.5)
Well my prayers have been answered. I have been licking my chops for this potential match up since I wrote about it in week 13. Indy going into KC and laying a 23-7 beating in week 16 has given bookmakers no choice but to favor Indy at home for this match up.
So what wrong wrong week 16 for KC?
TURNOVERS
- 4 Turnovers (1 int / 3 fumbles) - 3 fumbles is a very flukey stat. Sadly, they actually fumbled 6 times in that game but recovered 3 of them.
Turnover breakdown from other 15 games.
0 Turnovers: 8
1 Turnover: 5
2 Turnovers: 1
3 Turnovers: 1
In 13/16 games KC had 1 or less turnover, so it does not take a mathematician to answer the following question....
What is more likely to occur?
A. The Chiefs will have 1 or less turnover?
B. The Chiefs will have 2 or more turnovers?
TIME OF POSSESION
- KC held the ball for a whopping 22/60 minutes vs Indy in week 16. In there other 15 games they won the time of possession battle (30+ minutes) in 10 of 15 games.
7 POINTS???
- The 7 points that KC scored in week 16 was their lowest point total of any week. Their next lowest total for the year was 17. I guess when you only have the ball for 22 minutes and turn it over 4 times it's going to be hard to get any points on board...also....
3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS
- Week 16 vs Indy the Chiefs converted on 3rd downs at a sickening 12% clip.
- The NFL average for 3rd down conversions is 38%
- KC came in below league average with a 35% conversion rate and something that actually does concern me -- a league worst 29.5% on the road.
While it won't come as any surprise if KC does struggle a bit on 3rd downs there is a remedy for success....
FEEEED 25!!!!
While the above stats are all eye-soars for KC backers the following will be the gleam that we will go after.
- In week 16 KC ran the ball 20 times for 155 yards - - That's 7.8 yards per carry.
- 7.8 yards per carry is a full 1.5 yards more than they ran for in any other game this season.
- Jamaal Charles week 16: 13 carries: 106 yards - - 8.1 yards per carry.
Indy Rush Defense
- Indy gives up 125 yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry both of which rank 26th in the league.
How has J.C. fared in previous match-ups vs Indy...
2010: 16 - 87 - 5.4 ypc
2012: 22 - 226 - 10.3 ypc
2013: 13 - 106 - 8.1 ypc
Here is what Indy will be dealing with. There are a few runs from his 2012 carving in this package.
I can't envision any scenario that Charles doesn't have a monster game. To top it all off the dome of Lucas Oil Stadium will offer one of the faster tracks in the league for him to get loose on.
So although KC struggles mightily on the road in 3rd down conversion if they hand it to JC on 1st and 2nd down I don't think they will have to worry about 3rd down.
Well my prayers have been answered. I have been licking my chops for this potential match up since I wrote about it in week 13. Indy going into KC and laying a 23-7 beating in week 16 has given bookmakers no choice but to favor Indy at home for this match up.
TURNOVERS
- 4 Turnovers (1 int / 3 fumbles) - 3 fumbles is a very flukey stat. Sadly, they actually fumbled 6 times in that game but recovered 3 of them.
Turnover breakdown from other 15 games.
0 Turnovers: 8
1 Turnover: 5
2 Turnovers: 1
3 Turnovers: 1
In 13/16 games KC had 1 or less turnover, so it does not take a mathematician to answer the following question....
What is more likely to occur?
A. The Chiefs will have 1 or less turnover?
B. The Chiefs will have 2 or more turnovers?
TIME OF POSSESION
- KC held the ball for a whopping 22/60 minutes vs Indy in week 16. In there other 15 games they won the time of possession battle (30+ minutes) in 10 of 15 games.
7 POINTS???
- The 7 points that KC scored in week 16 was their lowest point total of any week. Their next lowest total for the year was 17. I guess when you only have the ball for 22 minutes and turn it over 4 times it's going to be hard to get any points on board...also....
3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS
- Week 16 vs Indy the Chiefs converted on 3rd downs at a sickening 12% clip.
- The NFL average for 3rd down conversions is 38%
- KC came in below league average with a 35% conversion rate and something that actually does concern me -- a league worst 29.5% on the road.
While it won't come as any surprise if KC does struggle a bit on 3rd downs there is a remedy for success....
FEEEED 25!!!!
While the above stats are all eye-soars for KC backers the following will be the gleam that we will go after.
|
| Please Andy...25 carries for 25 |
- In week 16 KC ran the ball 20 times for 155 yards - - That's 7.8 yards per carry.
- 7.8 yards per carry is a full 1.5 yards more than they ran for in any other game this season.
- Jamaal Charles week 16: 13 carries: 106 yards - - 8.1 yards per carry.
Indy Rush Defense
- Indy gives up 125 yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry both of which rank 26th in the league.
How has J.C. fared in previous match-ups vs Indy...
2010: 16 - 87 - 5.4 ypc
2012: 22 - 226 - 10.3 ypc
2013: 13 - 106 - 8.1 ypc
Here is what Indy will be dealing with. There are a few runs from his 2012 carving in this package.
I can't envision any scenario that Charles doesn't have a monster game. To top it all off the dome of Lucas Oil Stadium will offer one of the faster tracks in the league for him to get loose on.
So although KC struggles mightily on the road in 3rd down conversion if they hand it to JC on 1st and 2nd down I don't think they will have to worry about 3rd down.
