CHICAGO +160 over Minnesota
8:20 PM EST. No matter where you go to get your NFL news, you’re going to read the exact same thing about this matchup in all of them and until it’s embedded in your brain. Not only are you going to read and hear about it all day, if you watch the pregame show, you’ll hear four more experts say the exact same thing too. The point is that the media influences the market to a great degree. Yeah, we know, Chicago’s offense cannot move five yards while Minnesota’s offense is rolling, specifically its running game, therefore, Minnesota will win and cover. That may be true but our position is going to be different for several reasons, which we will get to very shortly.
Also influencing the market is that Minnesota is coming off back-to-back wins over Green Bay and Detroit while the Bears are coming off three losses in a row to the Rams, Saints and Titans, respectively. Then of course there is Dalvin Cook. Cook just rolled up 478 total yards and six touchdowns over two games. Cook is the hottest commodity in the NFL right now, thus, the premium to buy is high. The trends have the Bears getting worse and the Vikings getting better. The Vikes are also on a definitive upswing. That’s the tale of the tape with everything pointing to Minnesota but unfortunately, that’s not how NFL math works. If you use X’s and O’s to break down games and then make your decisions based on that (like Jimmy Johnson for example), you’ll be right about 22% of the time because the other team fumbled more times than your team and not because of the great X’s and O’s breakdown. Truth of the matter is, nobody can predict NFL games. Not us, not you, not Tony Dungy (who was a great coach when he had Peyton Manning in his prime, GREAT COACH), not anyone. If you want to beat the NFL, or give yourself a chance, you must play to the over and under-reactions of previous weeks or to what the market is overreacting to. In this case, the marketplace is overreacting to Cook and the Vikes warming up big time and also to Chicago’s pathetic offense.
As for Chicago’s pathetic offense, that’s more a case of Matt Nagy having no clue about what’s going on out there. It is our position that there is no such thing anymore as weak offenses. Some simple play calling by someone that knows what the fuck they are doing will recity it. In this era of flag football, you can’t touch the QB, you can’t hit below the waist or above the neck, you can’t go head first, even slightly into anyone, you can’t touch the receiver, you can’t, you can’t, you can’t and you can’t, it’s not hard to move the chains anymore. Anyone with half a brain can call plays to make an offense thrive. Matt Nagy is not that guy so step the fuck aside Matt Nagy and say hello to new play-caller, Bill Lazor, The Lazor play-calling experiment will produce immediate dividends. In a battle of middle-of-the-road teams fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive, the Bears offense will show new life so pay no attention to the media feeding you all those negative thoughts on the Bears.
Of course, Minnesota can win and cover here and if they do, so be it and congrats to all their backers. However, we’re in the value business and in that regard, the market has forgotten that Minnesota was 1-5 before they beat Green Bay, who incidentally, almost lost to Jacksonville yesterday. The Bears are the superior team that should be favored here. If Lazor has half a brain, and we trust he does, the Bears will move the ball like every other fucking team in this flag football league. Big overlay here so play the value and let the chips fall where they may.
Play: Chicago +160
8:20 PM EST. No matter where you go to get your NFL news, you’re going to read the exact same thing about this matchup in all of them and until it’s embedded in your brain. Not only are you going to read and hear about it all day, if you watch the pregame show, you’ll hear four more experts say the exact same thing too. The point is that the media influences the market to a great degree. Yeah, we know, Chicago’s offense cannot move five yards while Minnesota’s offense is rolling, specifically its running game, therefore, Minnesota will win and cover. That may be true but our position is going to be different for several reasons, which we will get to very shortly.
Also influencing the market is that Minnesota is coming off back-to-back wins over Green Bay and Detroit while the Bears are coming off three losses in a row to the Rams, Saints and Titans, respectively. Then of course there is Dalvin Cook. Cook just rolled up 478 total yards and six touchdowns over two games. Cook is the hottest commodity in the NFL right now, thus, the premium to buy is high. The trends have the Bears getting worse and the Vikings getting better. The Vikes are also on a definitive upswing. That’s the tale of the tape with everything pointing to Minnesota but unfortunately, that’s not how NFL math works. If you use X’s and O’s to break down games and then make your decisions based on that (like Jimmy Johnson for example), you’ll be right about 22% of the time because the other team fumbled more times than your team and not because of the great X’s and O’s breakdown. Truth of the matter is, nobody can predict NFL games. Not us, not you, not Tony Dungy (who was a great coach when he had Peyton Manning in his prime, GREAT COACH), not anyone. If you want to beat the NFL, or give yourself a chance, you must play to the over and under-reactions of previous weeks or to what the market is overreacting to. In this case, the marketplace is overreacting to Cook and the Vikes warming up big time and also to Chicago’s pathetic offense.
As for Chicago’s pathetic offense, that’s more a case of Matt Nagy having no clue about what’s going on out there. It is our position that there is no such thing anymore as weak offenses. Some simple play calling by someone that knows what the fuck they are doing will recity it. In this era of flag football, you can’t touch the QB, you can’t hit below the waist or above the neck, you can’t go head first, even slightly into anyone, you can’t touch the receiver, you can’t, you can’t, you can’t and you can’t, it’s not hard to move the chains anymore. Anyone with half a brain can call plays to make an offense thrive. Matt Nagy is not that guy so step the fuck aside Matt Nagy and say hello to new play-caller, Bill Lazor, The Lazor play-calling experiment will produce immediate dividends. In a battle of middle-of-the-road teams fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive, the Bears offense will show new life so pay no attention to the media feeding you all those negative thoughts on the Bears.
Of course, Minnesota can win and cover here and if they do, so be it and congrats to all their backers. However, we’re in the value business and in that regard, the market has forgotten that Minnesota was 1-5 before they beat Green Bay, who incidentally, almost lost to Jacksonville yesterday. The Bears are the superior team that should be favored here. If Lazor has half a brain, and we trust he does, the Bears will move the ball like every other fucking team in this flag football league. Big overlay here so play the value and let the chips fall where they may.
Play: Chicago +160
