Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions 12/30/2012

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Expect a close game with the Chicago Bears winning 55% of simulations, and the Detroit Lions 45% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Chicago Bears commit fewer turnovers in 69% of simulations and they go on to win 69% when they take care of the ball. The Detroit Lions wins 76% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Matt Forte is averaging 76 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (23% chance) then he helps his team win 79%. Mikel LeShoure is averaging 49 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (26% chance) then he helps his team win 64%.
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