chanman83 week 8 picks

[chanman83]

Had a horrible week last week ready to rebound this week.

22-20 YTD +$900 (yeah i got killed last week 4-10 hno

Here are my leans


MD + 1.5
OVER 47 Pur/NW
Baylor + 16.5
Duke + 4
OVER 47.5 Penn st/Mich
LSU - 3
Mizzou + 5.5 (little worried it's going down but still like it)

Still looking at some others I'll have some insights on these games later on but the two games that jumped out at me was def the md and duke games.

 

[Big Ike]

Had a horrible week last week ready to rebound this week.

22-20 YTD +$900 (yeah i got killed last week 4-10 hno

Here are my leans


MD + 1.5
OVER 47 Pur/NW
Baylor + 16.5
Duke + 4
OVER 47.5 Penn st/Mich
LSU - 3
Mizzou + 5.5 (little worried it's going down but still like it)

Still looking at some others I'll have some insights on these games later on but the two games that jumped out at me was def the md and duke games.

Chan:

Nice card. I'm on the otherside with the Penn State game. I have that as a solid under play.

Good luck on your card. Hope you get them all (but 1)

 

[chanman83]

Chan:

Nice card. I'm on the otherside with the Penn State game. I have that as a solid under play.

Good luck on your card. Hope you get them all (but 1)

Penn st runs the shit out of the ball then just messes around or have a few outs? Kinda like the purdue game?

 

[Big Ike]

Penn st runs the shit out of the ball then just messes around or have a few outs? Kinda like the purdue game?

Exactly.

I have it at 38 points for the total. 31-7 PSU

Ike

 

[chanman83]

Tomorrow games are interesting. Another ACC matchup on thursday and it could be another low scoring affair.

The last three home games for the wolfpack have been easy overs and the last two games for FSU has been over and for FSU Colo not really a defensive team and the U well shit happens right (fun game to watch). However, if you look at it East Carolina and South florida are solid teams and yeah there were in a shootout vs BC but this is FSU and Mickey Andrews is all about blitzing the shit out of you and making you pay when it's 3rd and long. The over looks good if you believe FSU can make turnovers which I knwo they will get ATLEAST 2 into 7. FSU makes their 2nd away trip after that slugfest of a game vs THE U that had under written all over it until shit just happned.

Ponder is much better than both Beck or Wilson and we don't know who will start for NC st because one played one game and one the other. FSU Defense is ranked #2 in the land and that spells trouble for NC St. NC St Defense last week gave up a sick 600 yards vs BC which makes the FSU offense lick their chops. I expect FSU to establish that running game and eat up that clock and I love (for under games) how it moves so quickly.

Sure you can think FSU let down or look past since they got some big games coming up vs Va tech, Ga tech, and clemson, however EVERY ACC game matters and I don't expect FSU to lose this one. Again with FSU running game and NC ST lack of running which will force NC St to throw more which falls right into Mickey Andrews hands.

some data to think about:
Last two meetings they met on Thursday night
FSU(-7) 17 NC ST 10 Under 43
FSU (-9.5) 20 NC St 24 Over 39

Some angles:
Road team is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Under is 6-1 in Wolfpack last 7 Thursday games.
Under is 8-1-1 in Wolfpack last 10 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.

Last 4 meetings FSU is 2-1-1 ATS

I personally don't see NC ST scoring More than 13 pts vs this FSU defense

Prediction: FSU 27 NC St 13

My play is UNDER 48 *dime*

I'm still looking at the TCU game.

 

[chanman83]

btw i put FSU 2-1-1 last four that is wrong my bad its 0-3-1

 

[chanman83]

I'm still not 100% sure on the sides yet but i'm leaning FSU and TCU

but I love the UNDER in the TCU game. So thats two unders tonight here are some trends I like to support this.

-TCU is 7-0 UNDER off an ATS loss and they 8-1 UNDER their last 9 home games.
-TCU is 5-1 UNDER vs. winning teams and they are 5-2 UNDER after allowing less then 100 yards rushing in their last game.
-BYU is 4-0 UNDER their last 4 October games and they are 4-1 UNDER their last 5 conference games

So two definite plays are
UNDER 48 FSU/NCST (its going up I see so I hope my local gives me 49 or 48.5 tonight)
UNDER 42 TCU/BYU

Both dime plays

 

[anotherng]

same side ...gl :smokingbb

 

[chanman83]

updating what # my local gave me

FSU - 11 o/u 48
TCU - 1.5 o/u 44

Plays are in

FSU 500
TCU 500

both totals UNDER for 1000

 

[MistaFlava]

as always, good luck this week bro!

 

[chanman83]

as always, good luck this week bro!

Thanks buddy and keep on rocking those simulations! I enjoy reading them.

 

[chanman83]

updating what # my local gave me

FSU - 11 o/u 48
TCU - 1.5 o/u 44

Plays are in

FSU 500
TCU 500

both totals UNDER for 1000

sweet 3 out of 4 works for and the two big ones hit!!!

3-1 +1950 for the day

:aktion033
25-21 YTD +$2850 overall record

 

[MistaFlava]

awesome night bro!

 

[chanman83]

thanks Flava... looking for a big bounce back after last week's suck ass weekend.

 

[anotherng]

:toast:

 

[chanman83]

25-21 YTD +$2850 overall record

Tonight I'm going with the smurf turf crew

Boise St is in a 47-20 ATS System that says to Play On home favorites of 21.5 points or higher in conference games if they have 4 or more starters returning from last years team than does their opponent.


Boise st -23.5 Dime
Under 52 Dime

BOL to everyone

 

[chanman83]

25-21 YTD +$2850 overall record

Tonight I'm going with the smurf turf crew

Boise St is in a 47-20 ATS System that says to Play On home favorites of 21.5 points or higher in conference games if they have 4 or more starters returning from last years team than does their opponent.


Boise st -23.5 Dime
Under 52 Dime

BOL to everyone

so close with boise st but oh well 1-1 lose juice

here are my plays for the early games

MD (+2)
Baylor (+17)
<st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Iowa</st1lace></st1:State> (-4)
Mia OH (+9.5)
<st1lace w:st="on">Eastern Mich</st1lace> + 5

BOL to everyone be gone almost all day so I hope everyone has a winning week.

 

[anotherng]

with you Iowa..Mia OH and E. Mich.....good luck