Bayern - Real
Over 2.5 at 2.12(pinnacle, betfair) - 1.5 units.
Bayern +1/4 at 1.72 (betfair) - 1 unit.
In another thread i refered to the dynamics of the unders in all first legs of the knock out stage in any league. The bookmakers are obviously well in the know on this matter and are laying the unders as massive favourites. In this match up pinnacle and betfair are laying the over at 2.12, and i am going to go against the grain here and bet it. Besides the particularities of the knockout stages, an over at more than 50% probability odds with such high scoring teams is a must bet imo. Madrid have an average of 3.0 goals per game in the primera and Bayern an average of 3.4 goals per game in the bundesliga, no where close to 2.5. Madrid are well aware that they cannot defend and their strength is in their offense, and they'll count on it today, bayern will be hopeless if they don't score at home. Last year, madrid's knock out stage in the cl was a goal fest, 3-1 and 3-4 with Manchester, 2-1 and 1-3 with Juventus. Has their defence become any better since then, no, it's become worse in claude makelele's absence and the addition of beckham, and tranfers that would strengthen their defensive line ups. On the contrary they are as good as ever offensively raul, zidane and figo have matured and are as good as always, beckam has been a welcome addition and ronaldo has fitted in nicely in this superteam. I consider the 2.12 odds a gift.
The side selection. The word is out on real madrid and it seems everyone and their brother's father in law will be on them. Over at asianhandicap.com the concensus is 67% on Real Madrid, that's always not such a good indication for anyone wanting to bet on Real. Let's have a look at this match up. My initial reaction when i first had a look at the odds was that of puzzlement, why is real favoured against bayern away, it really made no sense to me, and still doesn't, at most they should have been evenly priced. Sure enough Madrid is the better team, and bayern are not playing well at all in their local league, but this is the champions league and such matters don't have a lot to do with the end result. Good teams are very frequently upset by worse ones, and when the teams differences are so marginal as is the case here, the result of the game is more akin to a coin toss than anything else. Then there is the home field factor, as much as this factor has started to account for less than it did say 10 or 20 years ago, it's still a considerable advantage to the home team. Moreover, historically, Real Madrid is lagging wrt to Bayern at 5-9-1 win, loss, draw record, and their away record against Bayern is in one word horrible, having lost all 7 of their away games to the germans. Not even one single away draw. At betfair one can find a quarter of a goal for bayern in the handicap at the decent price of 1.72.
Over 2.5 at 2.12(pinnacle, betfair) - 1.5 units.
Bayern +1/4 at 1.72 (betfair) - 1 unit.
In another thread i refered to the dynamics of the unders in all first legs of the knock out stage in any league. The bookmakers are obviously well in the know on this matter and are laying the unders as massive favourites. In this match up pinnacle and betfair are laying the over at 2.12, and i am going to go against the grain here and bet it. Besides the particularities of the knockout stages, an over at more than 50% probability odds with such high scoring teams is a must bet imo. Madrid have an average of 3.0 goals per game in the primera and Bayern an average of 3.4 goals per game in the bundesliga, no where close to 2.5. Madrid are well aware that they cannot defend and their strength is in their offense, and they'll count on it today, bayern will be hopeless if they don't score at home. Last year, madrid's knock out stage in the cl was a goal fest, 3-1 and 3-4 with Manchester, 2-1 and 1-3 with Juventus. Has their defence become any better since then, no, it's become worse in claude makelele's absence and the addition of beckham, and tranfers that would strengthen their defensive line ups. On the contrary they are as good as ever offensively raul, zidane and figo have matured and are as good as always, beckam has been a welcome addition and ronaldo has fitted in nicely in this superteam. I consider the 2.12 odds a gift.
The side selection. The word is out on real madrid and it seems everyone and their brother's father in law will be on them. Over at asianhandicap.com the concensus is 67% on Real Madrid, that's always not such a good indication for anyone wanting to bet on Real. Let's have a look at this match up. My initial reaction when i first had a look at the odds was that of puzzlement, why is real favoured against bayern away, it really made no sense to me, and still doesn't, at most they should have been evenly priced. Sure enough Madrid is the better team, and bayern are not playing well at all in their local league, but this is the champions league and such matters don't have a lot to do with the end result. Good teams are very frequently upset by worse ones, and when the teams differences are so marginal as is the case here, the result of the game is more akin to a coin toss than anything else. Then there is the home field factor, as much as this factor has started to account for less than it did say 10 or 20 years ago, it's still a considerable advantage to the home team. Moreover, historically, Real Madrid is lagging wrt to Bayern at 5-9-1 win, loss, draw record, and their away record against Bayern is in one word horrible, having lost all 7 of their away games to the germans. Not even one single away draw. At betfair one can find a quarter of a goal for bayern in the handicap at the decent price of 1.72.
