CFL Week 11

YourAllAmerican · Sep 9, 2009

My early leans (or maybe not so early, seeing as how it's Wednesday and two games are played Friday) are this:

Hamilton (-1) at Toronto - Tiger-Cats keep surprising me, so I'll ride them a while longer.

Calgary (-2) at Edmonton - It's a little tough to bet against a good team facing the same opponent in back-to-back games, but when Calgary clicks they're tough to beat. The Stamps' defense also looks better now than early in the season.

BC (+10) at Montreal - The Birds could win this one by 21 or more pretty easily, but they look to be in something of a mid-season funk. This is kind of a tough one to bet -- and I very well may end up talking myself into taking the Montreal side -- because I expect the Als to win the game, but not confident of that margin. I really don't like betting on a team -- fave or dog -- unless I think they have a good shot of winning SU. I may even end up scratching this play entirely and going with a 1H bet on the Als.

Saskatechwan (pk) at Winnipeg - Sasky the better team. I believe we're getting a break on the spread because of the back-to-back factor and because it's a home game for the Bombers.

A handful of NFL Week 1 Unders I like:

Cowboys at Buccaneers, U 39
Eagles at Panthers, U 43.5
Vikings at Browns, U 40
Chargers at Raiders, U 43

PassTheBuck · Sep 10, 2009

If this game wasn't at 10am pacific time, I would be willing to take a look with the Lions. I think that you may get a complete reversal with the Lions playing too early a week after the Als looked like they were playing way too late. A tough game to predict, that's for sure. As bad as they've been, the Lions are only 1 game out of first place.

What do you think of Toronto/Hamilton over? Last week they were lucky to get the late FG, but with the number of goal line situations that total should have gone over easily.

thirdperson · Sep 10, 2009

10am Vancouver time is not too bad because most people are long awake before that time. Starting at 11pm Montreal time is harder during bedtime. But most teams normally play better at home and Montreal is the stronger team seeking revenge. Sweeping a powerhouse is a longshot.

thirdperson · Sep 10, 2009

With so many chances, total for Hamilton-Toronto should easily go over in previous game but instead barely made it in final minute. In rematch, would Hamilton still have so many chances? Hamilton has a habit of scoring field goals instead of touchdowns. They are 2 of 3 top "under" teams in CFL.

YourAllAmerican · Sep 10, 2009

It's hard for me to play an Over in an Argos game. Their offense is so lackluster that I always feel like I can't count on them much at all to contibute to the scoring.

PassTheBuck · Sep 10, 2009

Cody Pickett's two games at home have yielded 311 yards & 2 tds (vs. Calgary) and 326 yards & 1 td (vs. BC). Furthermore, I think that Hamilton secondary has plenty of holes, and if the boys in TO can study the tape and give Cody a few more seconds in the pocket they can make things happen at home.

I dunno, maybe I'm just trying to talk myself into this play....

YourAllAmerican · Sep 10, 2009

In the weighted four-game averages I use, I've got Toronto getting about 5.98 yards per play against opponents that average allowing about 6.93 YPP, so the Argos still look bad on offense to me.

I figure those weighted averages by taking stats from the last four games and discarding the high and low before averaging the remaining two.