Cfb Win Totals

[terpkeg]

Last two years I found one total that jumped out at me

2007 - KU o6
2006 Rutgers o6

First time thru the totals at thegreek and i dont see anything way off, but anyone have any insights/thoughts on these....

Two favorite
Mississippi o5.5 -110
Oklahoma o10 -105

Washington u6 -300 lot of juice but i dont see how this team wins 7 games, maybe value here.

In order...
Iowa o7 -150
Illinios u8 -200
Nebraska o7 -115
Michigan u8 -170

Want to put some more handicapping in before I jump the gun so any thoughts are appreciated.

Also, would like to see what Arizona comes out at, as i think they can be dangerous.

 

[GoSooners]

Last two years I found one total that jumped out at me

2007 - KU o6
2006 Rutgers o6

First time thru the totals at thegreek and i dont see anything way off, but anyone have any insights/thoughts on these....

Two favorite
Mississippi o5.5 -110
Oklahoma o10 -105

Washington u6 -300 lot of juice but i dont see how this team wins 7 games, maybe value here.

In order...
Iowa o7 -150
Illinios u8 -200
Nebraska o7 -115
Michigan u8 -170

Want to put some more handicapping in before I jump the gun so any thoughts are appreciated.

Also, would like to see what Arizona comes out at, as i think they can be dangerous.

I can't really speak for the other conferences because I haven't looked at them in depth. But as for the Big 12, I'm going to play OU over 10...Not because I'm a homer, but because I don't feel I can do any worse than a tie here. I don't see OU losing over 2 regular season games..And they have a real possibility of an 11 win season. 12 if everything goes perfect. As for Nebraska, I don't like the over 7...First year coaches with only 11 starters back are on shaky ground when it comes to winning 8 or more games in their first season. Even though it is Nebraska...They have an easy early home schedule their first 3 games..And then they play Va Tech..Say they do everything they're supposed to do and win their first 4 games..Then this team, who is young in a few key positions on defense, has to hit the road against OU (loss), KSU (big revenge game and probable loss), at Texas Tech (loss) Missouri (probable home loss). Now all of a sudden we're talking 4-4 with 4 games left to play to get to 8 wins. Assuming Nebraska takes care of business at Iowa State, they then have Kansas and Colorado at home..If they lose just one of those games your not going to win this bet..And if they lose both, or else one and then lose a game theiy aren't suppose to lose, then you'll lose the bet outright..Something tells me Nebraska is going to be right on the number..Which means a push..I would look elsewhere for a better play..Colorado at 5.5 is a better play with a coach who is just starting to hit his stride in his third year. Colorado pulled off two big upsets last season (Texas Tech on the road & OU at home). I expect them to win at least one game their not suppose to win this year..And with the rest of their schedule it would put them over 5.5..Matter of fact, I think Colorado could get to 7 or 8 wins this year.

 

[trentmoney]

GS-

where do you see colorado 5.5..??
i only see 6 out there...
i'm high on colorado but i'm not sure they do it... they have to pull the upset over w va or fsu to do it imo, and they don't much up well vs fsu's speed and defense

and while i could see them winning 3 conference home games, i could also see them losing 3 conference roadies

also, if you're gonna play oklahoma over you might as well play them to win the south at +100
if they go 11-1 they would win both and if they go 10-2 you could still win the division bet even though you push the total wins bet

good luck

 

[Conan]

Anyone know where to find season totals besides Olympic?

There aren't enough teams posted there for me to find anything I like. Every total that seems bettable has crappy odds and tying up a bunch of money for very much less than even odds doesn't interest me.

Who has a more complete list of teams?

 

[OTK]

I really love Iowa over 7, and might be on Ole Miss over 5.5 and Illinois under 8 as well.

Like the picks. Good luck.

 

[GoSooners]

GS-

where do you see colorado 5.5..??
i only see 6 out there...
i'm high on colorado but i'm not sure they do it... they have to pull the upset over w va or fsu to do it imo, and they don't much up well vs fsu's speed and defense

and while i could see them winning 3 conference home games, i could also see them losing 3 conference roadies

also, if you're gonna play oklahoma over you might as well play them to win the south at +100
if they go 11-1 they would win both and if they go 10-2 you could still win the division bet even though you push the total wins bet

good luck

Trent...I saw these totals in the main forum a couple days ago..But it isn't clear where the thread starter came up with the totals..I'm assuming it's something out of Vegas. But I'm not clear myself..I looked in the books after you mentioned it, and I have yet to see 5.5. Here is the link where I saw it. http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=599014

As for OU, more than likely if they go 11-1 they're going to win the south..But it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility that if OU loses to Texas in the Red River Rivalry and Texas doesn't lose another conference game, they could win the South..Not likely, but possible. It still might be worth a try..But I have a feeling if I push this bet and OU just gets to just 10 wins, that they'll will lose the South.

As for Colorado, these are the games that I think they have a good chance at winning:

1.Colorado State
2.Eastern Washington
3.West Virginia
4.Kansas State
5.at Texas A&M
6.Iowa State
7.OSU
8.at Nebraska

And they have a remote chance at beating Texas at home and Kansas on the road. I think much of CU's success this season will rest on the QB position. I've heard they have a very talented freshman QB Ballenger (6-4 230) who is looking very good and is challenging Cody Hawkins at that position. Something tells me Hawkins won't hesitate to play him if his son should start struggling. So that position will be cruicial for CU to get to 7 wins.

 

[terpkeg]

thanks for the input fellas

 

[rolltide]

while ole miss will be improved I cannot see them getting 6 wins. They'll beat Memphis (always a close game), Samford, Vandy, and UL-Monroe but would then need two upsets for you to win that bet as they won't be favored in any other game except possibly Miss St

I'm laying the juice on Pitt o7 as it would be a catastrophe for them to be 7-5. Theyll will start 4-0, lose at USF then beat Navy for 5-1. They have a great shot at being 7-1 before ending with Lville, cincy, wvu, and uconn.

also jumping on clemson u9.5...most overrated team in college football. even if they start 5-0 which bama hopefully changes they will lose at least 2 road games b/w BC, Wake, and FSU which would put them at 9-2 before So Carolina, who could be the surprise team in the country

 

[GoSooners]

while ole miss will be improved I cannot see them getting 6 wins. They'll beat Memphis (always a close game), Samford, Vandy, and UL-Monroe but would then need two upsets for you to win that bet as they won't be favored in any other game except possibly Miss St

I'm laying the juice on Pitt o7 as it would be a catastrophe for them to be 7-5. Theyll will start 4-0, lose at USF then beat Navy for 5-1. They have a great shot at being 7-1 before ending with Lville, cincy, wvu, and uconn.

also jumping on clemson u9.5...most overrated team in college football. even if they start 5-0 which bama hopefully changes they will lose at least 2 road games b/w BC, Wake, and FSU which would put them at 9-2 before So Carolina, who could be the surprise team in the country

I tend to agree about Pitt. It's going to be hard to keep this team from winning 7 games..If the team has good leadership they'll win despite their coach. As for Clemson, I don't like that under bet...Again, they could win over 9.5 despite their coach..They won 9 regular season games last season with just about the same team and schedule. And this year they have only 4 true road games..Ans they're clearly better than two of their road opponents (BC and Virginia). I think Clemson will win every home game..But the main reason I like Clemson possibly getting over 9 is because in general I think the ACC teams that are on their schedule are a little weaker than last season..Boston College is rebuilding..Ga Tech has a new coach and new system, along with losing half their team to graduation. In my opinion Clemson has 4 games they could lose

Alabama
Wake Forest
Florida State
South Carolina

They need to win 2 of these games..And 2 of them are either played at a neutral site or at home. Clemson will probably lose to Florida State, although that's not a given since Tommy likes to really get his team up when playing his dad..And then they play Wake Forest..A tough game, but again winnable. With 16 returning starters I can see Clemson equaling last years 9 win total...And possibly even getting to 11 wins. I think their first game with Bama will tell the tale for the rest of the season..If they beat Bama, their well on their way..If they lose, then I think your under 9.5 is probably safe..If they lay a beating on Bama, then we could be talking about a BCS championship game type of team.

 

[TOOTIGHT]

I compare Clemson this year to West Virginia last year. They will have probably the easiest road to the title game or at least a BCS bowl game. They will be stacked everywhere and should win over 9.5 games this season. Granted they have a history of choking down the stretch but they have too much talent and the ACC is probably going to have a down year.

They loose to Wake and South Carolina (even though they have owned the Cocks lately) and win the ACC

 

[gijoe]

Oklahoma win total is 10.5 at the Hilton

 

[TOOTIGHT]

Last two years I found one total that jumped out at me

2007 - KU o6
2006 Rutgers o6

First time thru the totals at thegreek and i dont see anything way off, but anyone have any insights/thoughts on these....

Two favorite
Mississippi o5.5 -110
Oklahoma o10 -105

Washington u6 -300 lot of juice but i dont see how this team wins 7 games, maybe value here.

In order...
Iowa o7 -150
Illinios u8 -200
Nebraska o7 -115
Michigan u8 -170

Want to put some more handicapping in before I jump the gun so any thoughts are appreciated.

Also, would like to see what Arizona comes out at, as i think they can be dangerous.

Good call on Old Miss. I have a buddy who is an awesome handicapper and he has been telling me Old Miss is his number one team to watch this year.

Iowa continues to have problems off the field and they have been on a big decline the last few years. I don't see them being in the top half of the Big Ten this year. Too many recruits they were counting on have been kicked off the team.

The Illini have a brutal schedule so under 8 is a def. possibility but I think they will be a better team this year despite loosing Mendenhall. Their OC has found a way to lead the big ten in rushing the last two years and with a moblie QB you will see plenty of success again. Mike Locksley will be a head coach of a major football program probably after next year and has a lot to do with the success in Champaign. WVU was considering him as a successor to Dick Rod until after the bowl game. By the way, my opinion doesn't matter here because I'm a huge Illini fan.

 

[trentmoney]

no way could i ever recommend to you-
with a clear conscience...
at the same time LAYING HEAVY JUICE and playing the over
on wannstedt and the great bill stull

now if you want to take your chances on that fine duo-
and pay almost DOUBLE THE PRICE...
then i wish you good luck
i just want it on the record
that i in no way endorse this type of behavior

sincerely,

trentmoney

 

[GoSooners]

The odds Trent will ever press the wager button on Pitt. +5000 :nohead:

 

[trentmoney]

i will take the over with pitt:

number of qbs to start a game: 1.5
number of times wanny goes into the half w/ timeouts in his pocket: 10.5
number of times pitt runs on 3rd and 4 and comes up 2 yds short: at least once a game
number of times wanny sits on the ball in the 2nd half w/ a lead instead of putting the foot on the neck: 7.5

just hope one of those times doesn't cost you your season total wins bet..!!

:toast:

 

[terpkeg]

while ole miss will be improved I cannot see them getting 6 wins. They'll beat Memphis (always a close game), Samford, Vandy, and UL-Monroe but would then need two upsets for you to win that bet as they won't be favored in any other game except possibly Miss St

figure Memphis, Samford, Vandy and ULM very winnable

Florida, Auburn, LSU should be L's

that leaves 5 games
at Wake Forest
South Carolina
at Alabama
at Arkansas
Miss. St

need two wins out of these games, if the game was at USC, i would put that in the L category, at home, will be tough. I am thinking that at Arkansas, who lost all their weopons and is putting in two new systems and Miss St will be the two.

I really think they will be tough. They played Florida, Bama and Aub tough last year. Bring back their whole D and starting at Q should be a So. who transferred from Texas and was impressive when he got PT.

 

[terpkeg]

GS-

if they go 11-1 they would win both and if they go 10-2 you could still win the division bet even though you push the total wins bet

good luck

been thinking about this, but if the two losses come within the conference then could be opposite, push play loss conf.

no mizzou, and ttech, kansas at home

out of conf sch. is formidable...
tenn-chat
cincy
at wash
TCU
but nothing that this team should handle as long as they are prepared. as i cant see this team losing 3 games so i think i am going to go fairly large on this play

 

[terpkeg]

any thoughts on wash u6 -300.

i know -300 seems ridiculous. but if you through out 6 win seasons, the line says that they will go under 6 75% of the time over 6 25% of the time.
they have a real tough sch. i am wondering if they can win 7 games ever if this scenerio presented itself 100 times.

 

[trentmoney]

any thoughts on wash u6 -300.

i know -300 seems ridiculous. but if you through out 6 win seasons, the line says that they will go under 6 75% of the time over 6 25% of the time.
they have a real tough sch. i am wondering if they can win 7 games ever if this scenerio presented itself 100 times.

are you crazy..??
you lose this bet you need to win 3 others just to break even..!!
there's like 40 teams on the board why would you lay -300..??
that's only 33% ROI


not to mention that i only see 3 definite losses on their schedule in oklahoma, @ oregon and usc
there are games there that can be won (ND, wsu, stan, or st, ucla) and you never know if the injury bug hits one of those teams that you think they'll lose to (az st..??) and they end up playing their 4th string qb like what happened to ucla last yr

even if you push you're locking up 3x your money on one bet for 4 months

:toast:

 

[terpkeg]

are you crazy..??
you lose this bet you need to win 3 others just to break even..!!
there's like 40 teams on the board why would you lay -300..??
that's only 33% ROI


not to mention that i only see 3 definite losses on their schedule in oklahoma, @ oregon and usc
there are games there that can be won (ND, wsu, stan, or st, ucla) and you never know if the injury bug hits one of those teams that you think they'll lose to (az st..??) and they end up playing their 4th string qb like what happened to ucla last yr

even if you push you're locking up 3x your money on one bet for 4 months

:toast:

well needing to win 3 other games to break even is not nec. true. i mean i can put 1u/.33 or 2/.66 when my normal play is 1u/x. and i dont think a 33% roi over a 4 month period is a bad thing.

there may be other things on the board but i am just looking for value. if at -300, u6 has value, i will bet it. i have had real good money management over the last 6 months and i plan on keeping it for the football season, so having 1-2% of my roll, or even 6% for that matter, tied up for 4 months shouldnt be an issue.

im just wondering what % of times that wash will hit 7 wins. i think it has got to be lower than the times they hit 5 or under. but maybe i am not giving this team a fair assesment.

you are right about injuries. prolly should take injuries into consideration when capping season under totals. should want to project the team winning 1.5 more games than the total to factor in if a team totally tanks it bc of injuries. (fif looking at overs, if your team tanks it bc of injuries, nothing you can do but take the L).

They only bring back 12 starters and they play 5 road games in the pac 10.
The OOC schedule is tough with BYU, Oklahoma and ND. They are all coming to Wash tho.

Considering they did loss a lot of close games and the fact that BYU and ND are at home, I will prolly stay off.