Cfb totals week #5

[coffeetea]

Hi Guys - here is a Total that hasn't moved

lsu. ov 54 1/2. Lsu can go over by themselves

they always put up at least one terrible Total this week it is the Miami fla./Duke Total
opened 55 1/2 now at 61 1/2 my number is even higher than the 61 1/2 but even though I believe it will go
over cannot tell anyone to go over the worst of it

GL ALL

 

[G.MONEY]

On the LSU game with you as well

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

Agree on both those calls..would have been nice to be able to bet into that 55'...just an FYI ...90% t-storms for Baton Rouge Saturday

 

[sdf]

thanks. i missed out on the duke total....

good luck!

 

[coffeetea]

Agree on both those calls..would have been nice to be able to bet into that 55'...just an FYI ...90% t-storms for Baton Rouge Saturday

I make my own numbers for the games and am prepared when numbers come out - I have been doing this for decades -
i played ov 56 on Miami Total
fyi I know about the weather in Baton Rouge probably rain and some thunder storms but TY for the info - as I said lsu can go over the Total by themselves - the most important thing to concern yourself about when it comes to weather is FREEZING COLD and VERY strong winds -

some threads pick Totals at numbers that are 5 or 6 points away from the opener - this over the long term is a losing philosophy
that is why I do not recommend playing over in Miami game even though my number is higher than the present number of 61 1/2

GL ALL

 

[sdf]

What are your numbers for SMU/TCU? Down from 51 to 48 but almost tempted to play the over there. SMU offense is horrible but trying. TCU should score on SMU....but their defense is pretty good.

 

[sdf]

a few others of interest

Wyo/MSU...this seemed low but 2 good defenses here
TexasSt/Tulsa....this could fly over the total but it's been bet up a lot already. I'm not impressed with Tulsa's offense but neither team's defense is very good

at what point would you recommend mia over? they've knocked it down to 59.5.....

thanks

 

[coffeetea]

What are your numbers for SMU/TCU? Down from 51 to 48 but almost tempted to play the over there. SMU offense is horrible but trying. TCU should score on SMU....but their defense is pretty good.

tcu down to 46 1/2 and at this number a small play may be ok - as u r getting the best # but smu has scored only 12 points so far in 3 games but they played Baylor and Texas a&m and tcu has only played 2 games as it seems like they have byes every other week - and we're off last week - a key here is that next week TCU plays Oklahoma and will they go thru motions as they know they'd can turn it on anytime and win and will they call dogs off looking to okla game - ?????? But ov 46 1/2 is a good number so if u play I would say small play

I have been very busy sdf so I will look at your other games as soon as I have a chance

GL ALL

 

[coffeetea]

a few others of interest

Wyo/MSU...this seemed low but 2 good defenses here
TexasSt/Tulsa....this could fly over the total but it's been bet up a lot already. I'm not impressed with Tulsa's offense but neither team's defense is very good

at what point would you recommend mia over? they've knocked it down to 59.5.....

thanks

Msu gamo opened 49 bet down to 47 1/2 now back up to 49 1/2 un 49 1/2 looks like way to go

Tulsa opened 64 bet down to 62 now back up to 66 1/2 Tulsa seems to have bad defense and tex st. can score right now I am not playing this game 66 1/2 is tough #

as I said I played Miami Total at a good number and I could not recommend at worse numbers 61 1/2 now 60 if it came down to 58 might be worth looking at

I hope this was helpful

GL ALL

 

[coffeetea]

I have mich st. UN 49 1/2.
BC ov 56. game opened 56 bet up to 59 1/2. Now back to 56


GL ALL

 

[coffeetea]

This week is a good example of what sports betting is about - there has been moves on both sides and Totals first one way and then back the other way - this is why one must have a good opinion and ALWAYS get the best number otherwise you can get caught in the traps and changes - this always goes on but it seems to me this week there is more movement - this is also why I continue to say when u play at a bad number u will lose in long run - I play sides too but my main focus is Totals and when some of these guys that put up Total plays recommend that u play at a terrible number whether they win or lose that game they will lose over time and when I say time I don't mean a few weeks I mean at least a few years - an example this week for one is Miami fla/Duke game - the opening number was 55 1/2 and when some one posts play over 61 and people think this is a good play it actually will be over time a way to lose your money - it doesn't matter if Duke goes over 61 and u win it is a bad bet and eventually u will find this out - I played Miami fla over to but over 56 and I want to win and I hope they go way over 61 but I have been betting sports a long time probably before many of u were born and I am trying to be helpful and understand what is important but I know the old saying will prevail "u can lead a horse to water but u can't make the horse drink it" I picked out the Miami fla game because there has been a lot of talk about it but there are other Totals this week and other weeks where people are posting to play Totals at terrible numbers - ok sorry for the rant but this is the most important thing when gambling "you must get the best of it" if u want to have a chance to win


Gl ALL

 

[sdf]

the problem with some totals is they open at one book and last one minute so getting 55.5 isnt viable for some, especially if you're not fast or dont have a strong opinion

09/23/14 04:10:50pm	57½
09/23/14 04:10:49pm	57½ Over -111 Under -109
09/23/14 04:10:43pm	57 Over -111 Under -109
09/23/14 04:10:35pm	57
09/23/14 04:10:34pm	57 Over -125 Under +104
09/23/14 04:10:32pm	55½ Over -125 Under +104
09/23/14 04:10:25pm	55½ Over -116 Under -104
09/23/14 04:09:18pm	55½

so while getting the best number is always important, it's not always achievable. like you say if you make your own numbers and are prepared, getting a "bad" number is how you make your money thru the season.


and DEFINITELY a lot of movement with totals this week. some clearly bet one way so they could bet back the other later in the day. other totals just have strong opinions by big betting groups....

best of luck

 

[coffeetea]

the problem with some totals is they open at one book and last one minute so getting 55.5 isnt viable for some, especially if you're not fast or dont have a strong opinion

09/23/14 04:10:50pm	57½
09/23/14 04:10:49pm	57½ Over -111 Under -109
09/23/14 04:10:43pm	57 Over -111 Under -109
09/23/14 04:10:35pm	57
09/23/14 04:10:34pm	57 Over -125 Under +104
09/23/14 04:10:32pm	55½ Over -125 Under +104
09/23/14 04:10:25pm	55½ Over -116 Under -104
09/23/14 04:09:18pm	55½

so while getting the best number is always important, it's not always achievable. like you say if you make your own numbers and are prepared, getting a "bad" number is how you make your money thru the season.


and DEFINITELY a lot of movement with totals this week. some clearly bet one way so they could bet back the other later in the day. other totals just have strong opinions by big betting groups....

best of luck

Hi sdf - ok maybe Miami fla game not a good example - but there are other games that move say on wed that could be played at good number and wed most everyone has Totals up and more Achievable but I know u understand the point I am trying to make - I am just trying to be helpful - I am done with my rants about playing only at good numbers

GL ALL

 

[coffeetea]

Georgia. Ov 56

GL ALL

 

[sdf]

Georgia. Ov 56

GL ALL

really like this one!

 

[sdf]

Hi sdf - ok maybe Miami fla game not a good example - but there are other games that move say on wed that could be played at good number and wed most everyone has Totals up and more Achievable but I know u understand the point I am trying to make - I am just trying to be helpful - I am done with my rants about playing only at good numbers

GL ALL

it's great education. it took me years to realize how important it was to get good numbers all during the week. looking at multiple books (thanks sportsoptions !). i shake my head sometimes at guys playing Tulsa over 68 when it was 62 or 63 a few days ago. but then again, i've been there so I know what its like!

good fortune this weekend!

 

[coffeetea]

it's great education. it took me years to realize how important it was to get good numbers all during the week. looking at multiple books (thanks sportsoptions !). i shake my head sometimes at guys playing Tulsa over 68 when it was 62 or 63 a few days ago. but then again, i've been there so I know what its like!

good fortune this weekend!

I would suggest that everyone read what sdf wrote above over and over

Yes sdf I know that u understand and yes it is great education that I try to give and explain (even if I do say so myself) �� the problem is that people don't really comprehend this - the NEED for action usually wins out over disciplin -

this week was a slight minus - we move on and get to work - yes work most are allergic to work ��

GL ALL