So what line does Vegas have to release to get action on both sides this week? The only line that makes sense is +10. Since they released that have taken mostly Cinn money, i.e. the line going to -11.5. By reading this board I can definitely see the Cleveland love. DD dogs are great most of time and sharp bettors bet them blindly regardless of angle, situation, or injuries. With that said I don't make blind plays and I weigh the information thats available to me. There are valid arguments/angles for both teams here. But, I think the two factors that have the most weight out of all the angles are;
1) Manzel is starting and the last time he played Cinn he got smoked 30-0. This lets us know Cinn. can game plan properly against him.
2) Haden and Whitner are in Concussion protocol and Whitners backup in questionable. We seen what happened in the 2nd half on the Ariz game last week when these guys went down.
If McCown, Haden, and Whitner were playing I think I might bet the house on Cleveland in this game at +10. Please don't overlook the weight these 3 huge injuries have. Injuries like these make the revenge/div. rivalry/off big win angles completely null and void. After Cinn gets up big in this game they are going to run the ball without contention. This is going to prevent a back door cover. You also are going to have Hail Mary Manzel throwing the ball trying to play catch up. Thank you.
Angles and Situational plays need to be properly weighted. In this scenario the injuries dominate the sheets. Cinn needs to win every game possible in their quest to keep up with NE and Denver for home field in the playoff. Cinn won't be taking the night off. I also love talented home teams on a short week vs. an inexperienced QB and a horrible defense (without Haden and Whitner).
There is not going to be an anomyly like last years game in Cinn. That already happened, Its not going to happen again. And this time Haden isn't playing.
CINN -11.5 - 1 UNIT
Also, I have my biggest play of the year so far coming up on Sunday.
BOL, CC
1) Manzel is starting and the last time he played Cinn he got smoked 30-0. This lets us know Cinn. can game plan properly against him.
2) Haden and Whitner are in Concussion protocol and Whitners backup in questionable. We seen what happened in the 2nd half on the Ariz game last week when these guys went down.
If McCown, Haden, and Whitner were playing I think I might bet the house on Cleveland in this game at +10. Please don't overlook the weight these 3 huge injuries have. Injuries like these make the revenge/div. rivalry/off big win angles completely null and void. After Cinn gets up big in this game they are going to run the ball without contention. This is going to prevent a back door cover. You also are going to have Hail Mary Manzel throwing the ball trying to play catch up. Thank you.
Angles and Situational plays need to be properly weighted. In this scenario the injuries dominate the sheets. Cinn needs to win every game possible in their quest to keep up with NE and Denver for home field in the playoff. Cinn won't be taking the night off. I also love talented home teams on a short week vs. an inexperienced QB and a horrible defense (without Haden and Whitner).
There is not going to be an anomyly like last years game in Cinn. That already happened, Its not going to happen again. And this time Haden isn't playing.
CINN -11.5 - 1 UNIT
Also, I have my biggest play of the year so far coming up on Sunday.
BOL, CC
