CC '08-'09 (with research and turnover surprises)

[Michelangelo]

Playoffs 5-4

My Conference Championship plays:

Arizona +4' (vs Phi)
Baltimore +6 (@ Pit)

Lockin' in early (for verification please check my home board, TS) appears to have been the right thing to do this week. It doesn't always pay off but it's lookin' good this week. Baltimore has pretty much held steady at +6 and it continues to be +6. But watchin Zona closely is payin' dividends. I watched as it climbed from +3' to +4'. Then pounced yesterday when I saw it go to +4' -115. It is now +4 -125.

First I'm gonna start with some situational trends that I compiled during the week. Some were posted here by Bugsy and Kenman.

- 12-8 ATS - Dogs in the CC L10Y (last 10 years) (on Bal; on Azo)

- 10-3 ATS - Dogs of +4 or greater in CC L10Y (on Bal; on Azo)

- 3-0 ATS - The dog when teams who were not in the Playoffs last year meet in the Championship round L10Y (on Azo)

- 7-1 ATS - Playoff road team when playing a Division foe (on Bal) (thanks Bugsy)

- 10-3 ATS - Playing against a Home Fav off Home vs an opponent off Away (against Pit; on Bal) (thanks Bugsy)

- 9-1 ATS - Playing against the team that, in the Playoffs, knocks off the Defending SB Champ since '82 (against Phi; on Azo) (thanks Kenman)

- 41-22-2 ATS - All Playoff teams revenging the previous same season SU outcome L10Y (on Bal; on Azo)

- 9-3-1 ATS - Using Big Jim's isolations, the Division road team in the last 12 third time in a year Playoff meetings (on Bal) (thanks Big Jim)

- 13-3 - All same season three game situations to get at least one ATS win (on Bal)

- 10-6 ATS - All three game rematches to reverse the last ATS outcome (on Bal)

- 12-5 ATS - All same season, third game dogs L10Y (on Bal)

6-4 ATS - Dog in CC Playoff Revenge L10Y (on Bal; on Azo)

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There is one other area that I looked at hard - turnovers and points gained by other than the offenses. I looked only at the Home / Road numbers for each team, whichever applied.

Didn't have time to look up the exact numbers but any veteran of this game we play knows that the team with the most turnovers will lose the game in the vast majority of cases.

And safeties, Kick return TDs, turnover return TDs, and blocked punt or field goal TDs, are Big, often game changing plays. They also inflate Totals if you're considering playing the Totals.

You're gonna be surprised by the results of this study.

Teams in the CC with the most scores by other than the offense for the full year (with the number of times they occurred preceding the team name) (don't forget H/R whichever applies) The first number is the number gained by that team. The second number is the number allowed by that team.:

7/2 Arizona
4/4 Philly

5/3 Balty*
4/1 Pitt

*Terrell Suggs has two of those return Touchdowns. He is also Balty's sack leader and has over 100 unassisted tackles. He will be a HUGE loss for Baltimore if he can't go or goes in some limited capacity.

Anybody else but me surprised by those numbers?

Now the full season Home/Road (whichever applies) turnover numbers for each team:

Azo // Int +13/-6; Fumb +7/-5
Phi // Int +8/-13; Fumb +7/-6

Bal // Int +15/-4; Fumb +3/-5
Pit // Int +11/-9; Fumb +5/-4

Anybody surprised by those numbers?

Although Philly has the rep as the much superior defense, they sure aren't when it comes to road turnovers vs Azo's home turnovers.

And it looks like the rookie, Flacco, does a much better job of protecting the ball than the vet, Rothlisberger.

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That's it. Good luck.

 

[BigLouReturns]

Teams in the CC with the most scores by other than the offense for the full year (with the number of times they occurred preceding the team name) (don't forget H/R whichever applies) The first number is the number gained by that team. The second number is the number allowed by that team.:

7/2 Arizona
4/4 Philly

5/3 Balty*
4/1 Pitt

So what are the results of teams in the conference finals with the most scores by other than the offense?

Big Lou

 

[Michelangelo]

Took me hours to compile those stats Big Lou. Would take me more than a work week to get your answer but without ever doing that research I can tell you that I wouldn't want to be opposing the team with the most scores by other than by the offense when there is the kind of gap that there is between Zona and Philly.

Good luck.

 

[HawaiianWarrior+]

note: Teams knocking off previous years Super Bowl champs in this case its Philly has 1-6 ats since 1995 San Diego being the exception and lone cover in the 2007-2008 playoffs

 

[BigLouReturns]

Michelangelo

So why post those numbers if you don't know how they relate to this round? How do you know they are important if you haven't researched the outcome of teams who score by other then offense?

 

[Michelangelo]

Why don't you research the numbers for your question and come back and tell us Big Lou. I know what those numbers say to me.

Thanks Hawaiian Warrior. I have that stat listed in my thread going back to '82.

Good luck to both of you.

 

[BigLouReturns]

I don't know what the results are, that's why I asked you. It's not something I have ever researched.

Now the full season Home/Road (whichever applies) turnover numbers for each team:

Azo // Int +13/-6; Fumb +7/-5
Phi // Int +8/-13; Fumb +7/-6

Bal // Int +15/-4; Fumb +3/-5
Pit // Int +11/-9; Fumb +5/-4

So what are the results of teams with the turnover differential you also posted? Do they actually make a difference in this round of the playoffs? Philadelphia has won two consecutive road playoff games, despite their horrible road turnover ratio. And if Arizona is a -11 on the road how were they able to have a +5 turnover differential in Carolina last week? If you want some turnover numbers to review, research how teams do the week after a playoff win with a +5 turnover differential.

Big Lou