carryover wednesday at hollywood

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big carryover for a wednesday card. i will be going after the pick -6, but here's my analysis of the card.

race 2: french debutante. conventional wisdom is to not back a firster routing, but routing on turf is a hell of a lot easier than routing on dirt and this field is horrible. souvenir party is the likely chalk, and she's destined for claimerville soon anyway. willing to back the lynch firster , despite his shoddy stats with youngsters. believe this one can really run and if she can get three hooves on the ground, she could still beat this field.

race 3: good day sir. this filly is on the upswing and just moved from the very low % garcia, to the high % cardenas barn. this one will dole out all the pace from the inside and would be my pick six single if not for the other pesky speed in here.

race 4: favorites look like the right ones- don'ttsellmeshort and levee town. these two year olds can improve leaps and bounds in a short time, but think the ones with experience should prevail. the ward firster one smart cat has worked both well and poorly of late, so don't know which horse will show up today. may have to go 3 or 4 deep in the pick-6 sequence.

race 5: sabalicious. even though pine for java is the horse to beat in here, i'm going to back sabalicious to win (and use them both in the p-6). sabalicious loses solis to 'java, but pval is an upgrade and he should have him pressing the pace all the way home.

race 7: chiselling. i've been a huge fan of sarafan for a long time and he's a top-class miler on his best days and has been consistent as hell over the last couple of years. however, he seems to find trouble quite a bit for horse of his class level and i'm giong to play against him in his first start back since running at sha tin. chisselling, of course, is coming off an even longer layoff, but this four year old juddmonte blue blood is half to decarchy, honest lady, chester house and of course empire maker (your belmont winner). rumor is this one is training like a freight train in the mornings and he should show typical improvement between 3 and 4. will be finishing fast. problem is the lack of pace in this race as kachamandia is the only one with any speed at all. this will be an all-out sprint for home and think chiselling will prove best under solis.

race 8: just me. would only look at tizwar and patriot dream in here to complete the exacta,trifecta. they both have the experience edge over just me, but the shirreffs trainee has been working well and benchmark is an underrated debut sire. gate to wire in the finale under valdivia.
 

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thanks. are any of these bigger plays or all pretty much the same?
 

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matt-
probably will play french debutante, sabalicious, chisselling and just me to win. otherwise, i'll have loaded up on a pick 6 tix. not the greatest betting card, but i'm nosing around b/c of the carryover.
 

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mazel - I took a look and think this pick 6 is makeable. I'm going to put a bit of an investment into it. Thanks for your input - it helped me with 2 singles. Good luck to you.
 

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Mazeltrick-

Thanks also for your input. Software I use also likes Beckham in the 6th. Any input on the horse. Its last three races seem to be better than any of the others. Single?
 

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champs,

beckham is one of those horses who frustrate the hell out of me- he has talent, trains well, yet seems to not want to put it together to win. he adds blinkers, so he should be more focused, but he's had blinks before. i'd NEVER single a horse like him. he's lost way too many times with favorable pace scenarios to back with any confidence. i'm going to be spreading like hell in the 6th. i'm using beckham, triptronic, i've got rhythm, kilgarten, american guy, , fenway and cultural bend. that's how uncertain i am of beckham. if he wins, i've wasted four hundred bucks or so spreading in that race. i'm going to post my pick six tix at post time of the third race.
 

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Mazeltrick-

Looking at the race from your comments I feel for what you are saying.

Anyone - Can anyone post scratches as they here. Will be at work and will find it hard to keep checking for scratches. Would like to just come to fourm to see.
 

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here's my pick 6 tix

r3: 1,6
r4: 3,4,5,6
r5: 1,4,5
r6: 1,2,4,6,7, 10
r7: 5
r8: 2,4,5
 

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awful day today. let me make two observations as i reflect on what transpired at hollywood today. first of all, the track played like an escalator if you were on the lead. i would upgrade any horse who made up ground on this track next time out and downgrade the beyers on the front running winners.

second, and more importantly, jose valdivia might be one of the worst gate riders i've ever seen. this is not born out of his inept handling of just me today (broke second to last and made a huge move on the turn, followed by the flatten and fade). he's now done this nearly every single time he gets on a first time starter- he can't break them properly and they get outrun early. this is important information to file away. barring some cosmic change in his riding, i will NEVER back a first timer with valdivia, particularly with 2 year olds. he's been on 3 of mike pupye's cobra farm horses that have been bet down with the same result. they're off slow, make a move and fade. it's too bad, b/c he's a decent turf rider and his horse's rarely get bet.

anyway, congrats to cerveza who had a strong day. see you later....
 

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