Can't back a MAC team giving that many points

[letsgohoosiers]

The MAC is the most difficult conference to cap in FBS. You don't know what performance you're going to get from any team during any week.

Backing a big MAC favorite week 1? A team that faded last year and loses a bunch of key players? Seems like a risky proposition.

I went to SportsDatabase and checked to see how >10 point MAC home favorites historically did week 1.

They are 3-11 ATS, with the 3 ATS wins coming against conference opponents. Non-conference they are 0-9 ATS. Never has a MAC team covered a >10 point spread week 1 against a non-conference opponent.

The line movement scares me. The Greek was the first shop to put up lines this year. They put out some numbers that have moved a ton. This is one of those games. It opened at 24.5, now the line is 16 across the board. Sharps pounded North Texas.

What sealed the deal? Joe Blow at the Sportsbook bar who "routinely hits on 3 teamers" claimed he was on Ball State, as part of his 3 team. Also told me to take Oregon and South Carolina. Thanks Joe! Fade away!

 

[tb06]

LGH, do you routinely post your CFB plays?

 

[letsgohoosiers]

I don't really like making my plays public, rather just commenting on some games and letting everyone know what I'm doing.

A basketball system that I had found went 77% throughout the season. I posted it, it started out 7-0-1, then it's as if Books caught on. I'm a bit paranoid since about posting actual picks.

 

[CrapGame]

"Non-conference they are 0-9 ATS"

I was on Ball St. campus on Monday. The students did not really care about the football team. Kinda no expecting too much.

I took North Texas and even dropped a 1/4 unit on the ML.

 

[sparticus]

Ball st.lost a lot on offense, that is the main reason nate [qb]came out early,gl.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Beautiful. Was never in doubt.

I should have backed them ML. Really thought they had a chance to win this. It was amazing being the ONLY person in the Sportsbook on North Texas.

The guy next to me had Ball State ML. I was laughing at him for 4 quarters.

Line opened at 24.5 at The Greek and closed at 15. Never in doubt the entire game.

Michigan, Notre Dame, UTEP and Washington have similar movement.

 

[roxymusic]

Nice hit, around these parts nearly everybody was on N.Tex. Going to be a long season in Muncie.

 

[PokerKingJim]

Line way was off. Hard for a program like Ball to lose that much on offense and not be severely affected.

 

[CrapGame]

I should of played NT stronger. I really thought of playing 3 units on it and 1/2 unit on he ML

Oh well I love starting a season hitting ML at 8 to 1.

 

[GoForIt]

Great hit Rodney!!!!!!!!