Cancelling MD.. Taking V Tech

[wiseguysunlimited]

I also am a member at sportsinsights and a few other places and get the public line and how it opened, what it moved to, and all those other %'s as well. I am telling you, throw that bullshit out the window on this game. The reason I did so well in hoops is because I know when to follow it, and when not too. If you actually believe that 85% of the money was dropped on V Tech at -12, and the line moved to 9.5, you are crazy. Lets say that the books wanted money on VT, well if those #'s are right, they were getting plenty of action on VT -11, and -12, so why in the hell would you possibly move the line down to 9.5?? You are leaving a huge middle! There is a reason why the books moved the line from 12 to 9.5, and it isn't because they are trapping you! You can take this for what its worth, but the books need some VT action. Yes, more bets are being placed on VT than Maryland, but more money is on MD right now. I believe there's a such thing as traps once in awhile, but this isn't one. Everyone sees that Maryland is doing well lately, and VT didn't demolish a shit Marshall squad. The line is low because the game is being played at Maryland, and VT's top two running backs are questionable. Seriously, do you actually believe that 85% of the money was being dropped on Tech, and the books still moved the line down 2 points? I called both of my locals today, and they both told me that they need some Hokie action. Virginia Tech will win this game with their special teams, and their talent, and they will win it rather handily.

 

[wiseguysunlimited]

Prediction
Virginia Tech 38 Maryland 20


4 units V Tech -9.5
4 units over 47.5

Go 2-0 with these tonight

 

[RightSide]

Totally agree!! Seems everyone and their mother is on MD tonight besides us....I love the Hokies here also! They are special this year! GL tonight!

 

[leisure]

VT has slaughtered everyone they have played ths year....just destroyed them....not sure how you bet against that!


Need some help on FlaInt vs Troy game

 

[Seanmo]

uhmm Nc State?

 

[SkinsRaj28]

They certainly didn't slaughter the Wolfpack. They should've outright lost that game, got outplayed.

 

[wiseguysunlimited]

Forget the NC State game. Alot of teams struggle their first game.


I believe this line will be back up around 11 near gametime

 

[fighting69th]

Nice analysis...I teased VT down to -4 earlier this week and am confident.

 

[HPark1]

You've totally confused me with your analysis. Generally speaking sharp money is on VT (more correctly was at 10.5+) while the public is loving VT (big surprise).

Why switch your wager and more importantly your opinion on a game? The line dropped because sharps were hammering it.

I don't know how you can question where the majority of wagers are with. However lines move due to volume not # of wagers and thats what we see here.

 

[wiseguysunlimited]

You've totally confused me with your analysis. Generally speaking sharp money is on VT (more correctly was at 10.5+) while the public is loving VT (big surprise).

Why switch your wager and more importantly your opinion on a game? The line dropped because sharps were hammering it.

I don't know how you can question where the majority of wagers are with. However lines move due to volume not # of wagers and thats what we see here.

What I am saying is everyone is talking about how VT opened at -12, and now is down to 9.5 at most books. Everyone is thinking that 85% of the money is on VT, and the line moved down to 9.5, and it is a trap, and the smart play is MD. That is way way off. The line didn't move from 12 to 9.5 because it is a trap, it moved because more money is on MD, and VT's top two RB's are Q. The sharps did not pound Maryland early driving the line down, remember, sharp money comes in late, not early. Also, I called my two locals, and they both need VT action meaning more $$ is on MD. With all of this talk about VT being a trap, and everyone now jumping on MD, I am really liking the Hokies. Watch the late line movement on this game, and I bet you this line moves from 9.5 to 10 or 11. The sharps will be on VT tonight, and I will be too. Like I said, I am more of a hoops capper than football so I could be wrong tonight, but I will be all over Tech. All Tech has to do is win by 10 now, and they will do it easily. Best of luck with who you take, but this game is not a trap. Too many cappers are overthinking this game and saying MD is a sharp play when all reality it is not

 

[HPark1]

Everyone is thinking that 85% of the money is on VT, and the line moved down to 9.5, and it is a trap, and the smart play is MD. That is way way off.

Who is thinking that? Would be difficult to get the handle numbers. People believe 80% or so of the wagers are on VT, which I intend to believe. I have a hard time believing anything otherwise. And to follow a play after a line move is not smart. Playing Maryland now at 9.5 is not the smart play, it was at 10.5/12 but not now. I'd say the line is about right now.

The sharps did not pound Maryland early driving the line down, remember, sharp money comes in late, not early.

Not sure where you got this idea from. Sharp action comes at anytime value is spotted, and when I line opens is no better time...

Also, I called my two locals, and they both need VT action meaning more $$ is on MD. With all of this talk about VT being a trap, and everyone now jumping on MD, I am really liking the Hokies.

A couple local bookies with a few hundred (if that) wagers are not indicative of the market. Once again unless I'm waay off there is no way there are more tickets with MD written on them.


Anyways just one matchup, perhaps we are both overthinking...

gl

 

[wiseguysunlimited]

Who is thinking that? Would be difficult to get the handle numbers. People believe 80% or so of the wagers are on VT, which I intend to believe. I have a hard time believing anything otherwise. And to follow a play after a line move is not smart. Playing Maryland now at 9.5 is not the smart play, it was at 10.5/12 but not now. I'd say the line is about right now.



Not sure where you got this idea from. Sharp action comes at anytime value is spotted, and when I line opens is no better time...




A couple local bookies with a few hundred (if that) wagers are not indicative of the market. Once again unless I'm waay off there is no way there are more tickets with MD written on them.


Anyways just one matchup, perhaps we are both overthinking...

gl

I am telling you, sharp action usually hits late. There were tons of people that believed 80% of the money was on VT, and that is wayyyyyyyy off. Sportsinsights doesn't give money %'s. It is betting %. You have to know when to play it, and when not too. Playing MD simply because 80% so called money was on VT, and the line dropping wasn't the right play tonight.