I would say the answer to this question is an absolute yes. IMO – it’s more important to dominate the line of scrimmage than have a superstar QB, in terms of winning a title. The key to the SEC’s run hasn’t been the QB, it’s been the play in the trenches. Dominating the line can sure make an average QB look better than he actually is.
The SEC defensive lines have not just dominated; they have beaten the opposing offensive lines like a drum on nearly every single snap. Four of the last five title games looked like an NFL defensive line facing off against college players. Nearly every single play, the SEC defensive lines beat the opposition offensive line and completely disrupted the opposing QB and offense. I actually felt like Oklahoma’s offensive line at least competed with Florida, but the other four weren’t even close.
I don’t care who you’re QB or RB is if you have big, fast, athletic defensive lineman having free run on nearly offensive play, your offense is in trouble. It hasn’t hurt that in the previous four years the back seven for these SEC teams has been solid/excellent as well. Last year was a bit of an anomaly, as Auburn’s back seven was sub-par at best.
The gap in talent hasn’t been as large with SEC offensive lines facing opposing defensive lines, but there has been a gap.
When teams lose the line of scrimmage, and lose it badly, the entire game plan falls apart. You will likely see this again in the Oregon-LSU game in a few weeks. Oregon’s offensive line will be beaten on nearly every single play of this game and this will completely disrupts the entire offense. The game is still a pass for me though, because I’m struggling to back Jefferson, who can lose this for LSU in a minute and Oregon’s decided advantage on special teams, which could be critical in an expected close game.
The SEC’s run will come to end for one of two reasons IMO, a) the conference cannibalizes itself and doesn’t have a representative in the title game or b) they face a talented team who is strong on both lines.
I think option A is an extremely possible scenario this season, where an upset in the SEC title game (East over West) likely keeps the SEC out of the title game. I just don’t see any SEC team running the table in the regular season this year due to the overall depth of the conference. In many recent years, I felt the SEC was top heavy, but the teams at the top were ridiculously good. This season, the conference is deep, so I expect the West winner to be 11-1 heading into the SEC title game against an East winner that has at least three losses. However, the East winner probably wouldn’t be a decided underdog in this game and could pull the upset.
As for the QB’s mentioned above, I wouldn’t even consider mentioning Thomas’s name with Luck or Moore. I was very impressed with Thomas’s composure in the title game last season, but the bottom line is this guy is not a premier QB. If you look at Thomas’s passing numbers on obvious passing downs, they are less than average. To Oregon’s credit, they aren’t put in these situations often, but they certainly would be facing an SEC defense in the title game. In comparison to Luck or Moore’s numbers in the same situation, Thomas isn’t even in the same league. Luck or Moore can pick you apart on third and long, while Thomas can not. That being said, Stanford and Boise have other issues, which I think would decrease the probability that they defeat an SEC team in the title.
As for Oklahoma, without checking the numbers, my perception is they always seem to be strong on either the offensive line OR the defensive line, but can’t seem to align these in the same year, of late (GS, BS or Russ could comment on this better than I). If they can do this, they have a chance to win because their roster is full of SEC type talent. Unfortunately, I don’t see it this year and think they will drop a game somewhere along the line.
Call me crazy, but I think this season will move us one step closer to a playoff type format as the SEC, who could end up with six or seven of the top 12-13 teams, will not be represented in the title game, as two teams widely considered inferior to top level SEC teams will face off. I think it’s more than possible that every team in the SEC has two losses following the SEC title game. I would suspect this would create a media/public outrage, which may push us another direction.
