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I remember back a few weeks Oregon had ASU at Autzen and it seemed that there was no reason why they would allow the worst defeat in their history (vs. ASU last year) to go unavenged. So it was assumed.... NOT!! Not even at Autzen could they settle up with the Sun Devils. Who'd have thunk it?

Then, as if something snapped in their collective duckling head, the following week against the team that beat them the 2nd worst of all time (also last year) turned into a nuclear casualty, the Ducks scoring 27 in the 4th quarter to finally set something straight vs the fading Cougars. That one really caught me off guard. Cautiously I've been watching Kellen Clemens and their overall offensive play since with some mild optimism, even as they went to Palo Alto against a scrappy bunch at Stanford which is a hard place to win (ask the Trojans) and they pulled it off.

Well they seem to be on some kind of roll since that game up in Pullman. Good for them because they will get their bowl game likely now with a 5-3 record. But get this.... they have out rushed and outpassed every opponent they have played this season (other than OK) and somehow the Huskies managed to throw for a few more yards last week but all in vain.

Historically they own the Bears having whupped them the last 7 times they played and I doubt that their old bud HC Tedford will let that happen this week but familiarity breeds contempt and that cuts both ways. Who else but Belotti would understand his old OC better? I do expect this trend to reverse itself but it ain't gonna be as easy as 3 TDs... nope. Cal may be able to shut down simpler offenses but I happen to like the way the Ducks have developed since they found their mojo in Washington. To Cal, Oregon is just a pain in the ass and I think the Ducks will cause their share of bleeding, experienced in big games and a better team than the one that got wiped out by OK at the begining of the year, Cal will be challenged in this one.

It looks like the Pac-10 GOW for more than just myself.

Aside from all that, did anybody notice how the chalk covered all the games in the Pac-10 last week? I know this rubs against the grain but aside from this game, I think it's gonna happen again. The Beavers will get mowed down by a real team, the Huskies will sieze the opportunity to win one at home (for a change) because the Wildcats are one team they can beat, the Bru's are on a roll and tough at home and the trees are just the kind of kindling the Sun Devils need to light their fire.

All chalk once more except for the Ducks. That's how I see it.
 

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Conan..

I know you live in Oregon...Is the duck hype overbearing as it is apt to be or are Duck Fans realistic about what they have accomplished so far this year? As I just posted in prophet's thread, Ducks have beat five teams with a collective record of 11-30...They really are doing the exact same thing that Oregon State is doing...beating the bottom feeders of the Pac 10, and Idaho. Exchange the Cal game and the Stanford game from their schedule and OSU is 5-3 and UofO is 4 and 4. Ducks should get the cover here, but then again, would not be surprised if Cal gets a 3rd straight shut out.

Beavers will get exposed this week...hopefully the line continues moving down.

GL
 

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Another question...

Why are two west coast guys on the internet at 4:00 A.M.? New baby is my excuse, what's yours?
 

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WC, I had high hopes at one point but it wasn't about the Ducks, it was about the sloppy Beavers and their bipolar personality. I live here sure but you don't see me talking much about Oregon because quite frankly there's not much to say. If it wasn't for Tedford's resume, and Belotti's ability to squeeze every drop year after year, I'd probably run the other way... FAST!

Their are just too many young players to take them seriously, even if they do manage to overwhelm crappy teams. I think over the next 2-3 years when the boys grow up some, we are going to see some real football spread around this conference. Clemens looks like he's going to do all right in a year or so. But for now it's just ugly little ducklings we are talking about... I agree.


(Major jetlag)
 
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Ill be brutally honest.

All us Duck fans can sit and type about how turned around we are till the sun comes up, which should be in about 45 min here.

The Ducks have the potential - the Ducks have the coaching - but what they dont have is that unexplainable hidden mojo. If Kellen Clemens is off (SEE ASU GAME) - the Ducks are off. If Terrence Whitehead is off (SEE INDIANA) the Ducks are off. If the Oregon defense is off (SEE OKLAHOMA) the Ducks are off.

This team is lead on three fronts. Quarterback, Tailback and Defense. When all click they play well and generally win. If one falters completely, the team becomes a mess.

In order to stay in contention they will be forced to play exceptionally well on three of these fronts. Now even if they do so, to be honest, after some of the things ive watched happen over the past month, there is no way they still have a shot at winniner or covering.

Between the Box Score of every internet viewing American - you won't find the "bonehead" plays.

And let me say that the past 2 football games at Autzen have been nothing short of embarassing.

Bonehead plays against Arizona.

1. Kellen Clemens fumbles the ball on the 3 yard line of their opening drive in the game. AZ recovers, but the refs blow the call and say he was down. Replay clearly shows it was a fumble.

2. First drive for AZ - 2 and out, now third and long. Pass incomplete, was less than first yards in terms of how deep it was throws, and Oregon runs into the receiver for a 15 yard Pass Intereference call.

3. 2nd and 1 for the Ducks 2nd Drive of the game - ruined as a 15 yard personal foul penalty occurs.

4. and then the biggest "bonehead" play goes to the Ducks, who were in the middle of returning a 60+ yard punt for a touchdown - when all the punt returner had to do was beat the punter for the score. But no, one other defender had to make a completely unnecessary block in the back of the PUNTER, and turn the TD into "null and void"

Bonehead Plays Vs. Washington

#1. Play action pass, touchdown caught and dropped in the endzone by Nick LeBratten.

#2. Reverse fake throw to wide open no defender withing 20 yards, underthrows by wideout, and dropped by receiver as he slips and falls to the ground. That should have counted as -7 for the Ducks.

#3. Clemens scrambled, hits wide open Cameron Colvin in the endzone, bull hits him on chest - pops up in the air - intercepted for a touchback.

#4. Scramble for first down throw by Clemens hits wideout in the chest flies 5 yards into the air, and hits the ground to bring up 4th and long.

#5. Punt returner for the Ducks drops the ball and fumbles while changing hands.

-------

These are the kind of plays which make your team game for anyong. If you want to really anaylze the Arizona game, you could say that they were lucky they won by 14 - easily could have been 21-21 going into the end of the 4th quarter.

As for Washington the score should have been 54-6. Don't forget if it wasn't for Paws horrible day throwing, 14 of those 4th quarter points never happen.

In fact, this supposed revenge game apparently meant nothing to the coaching staff on the Ducks.

During the beg. of the 4th quarter, up 17-6, they elected to run up the middle and throw short screen passes. Both screen passes never happened as the Huskies almost had our start RB taken off the field in a stretcher twice.

There was no effort, no intent on throwing deep, and no intent on scoring. Nobody cared anymore.

Its that kind of effort that really makes a good team a mediocre team. The crowd was booing Belotti, as they should have been. He had the audacity to complain about that on the post game show last night.

In the game against the last place Huskies, the Ducks threw the ball over 25 yards twice the entire game. Both were incomplete, and one was on the fake reverse.

To be honest, the only reason i see the Ducks covering or possibly winning is it the Defense shows up. Forget any trick plays - we opted to use our only trick play against the lowly huskies - the same play that didn't even work.

If you want anymore insight let me know - i have a few friends on the team, and i go to each weeks game, and i use to talk with belotti once a week until i got my new job.
 

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Conan said:
WC, I had high hopes at one point but it wasn't about the Ducks, it was about the sloppy Beavers and their bipolar personality. I live here sure but you don't see me talking much about Oregon because quite frankly there's not much to say. If it wasn't for Tedford's resume, and Belotti's ability to squeeze every drop year after year, I'd probably run the other way... FAST!

Their are just too many young players to take them seriously, even if they do manage to overwhelm crappy teams. I think over the next 2-3 years when the boys grow up some, we are going to see some real football spread around this conference. Clemens looks like he's going to do all right in a year or so. But for now it's just ugly little ducklings we are talking about... I agree.


(Major jetlag)

Agreed. Kellen is a junior, and personally to me is the next Jeff Garcia. Don't ask me how or why, im just saying that because i can.

We are extremly young - we have an amazing QB in the wings by the name of Dennis Dixon. Who will get 0 PT under belotti so long as kellen can throw a ball.

But, in an interview earlier in the year, TE Tim Day said he would without a doubt come back to play next year. This is the same Tim Day who could easily be argued as the best TE in the country, bar none.

Potential potential. Oh and just in case both those QB's dont pan out, we have some guys little brother named Leaf waiting in the wings. :blowup1:

Finally - we are THE coolest team phonetically in the country. ready?

Kellen Clemens
Dennis Dixon
Cameron Colvin
Marcus Maxwell
Collin Cram
David Dittman
Erik Elshire
Jerome Johnson
Ramone Reed

-

i hate thinking about how spoiled we are with Jared Segal - what on earth are we going to do next year. florida state will feel lucky compared with us.
 

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Dr. Pepper...don't want to interrupt your cheerleading on a betting site, but I have to say that I completely disagree with you about coaching. The key to Mike Belotti's success from 1999 to 2001 (the Oregon Glory years) is now coaching at Cal and playing in Detroit, Denver, and Minnesota. Mike Belotti is an average pac-10 coach and a phenomenal recruiter, but with Phil Knight by his side who wouldn't be. Have you noticed that no one is talking about Mike Belotti for job openings anymore? The guy was smart not to leave Oregon...He might be coaching at Kentucky now.

The offensive coordinator (ludwig?) will break the long Oregon trend of moving on to head coaching duties. His play calling is brutal...his version of the west coast offense excruciating. Tim Day is a great TE...too bad the offensive game plan rarely uses him. For all his greatness, Tim Day won't be all conference. A freshman will. Clemens is adequate, but nowhere near the talent of two other Juniors in the conference, and don't get me started on Whitehead.

Keep it in perspective, please. Oregon has not beat a team with a winning record. I'm a Beaver fan but I stay away from the core fan base because they think wins over Washington and Arizona translates into a Beavs victory over USC. Oregon is an average pac-10 team at best. If they beat Cal I will post here an apology to you and duckfan everywhere....But I'm not worried at all about that...I just want them to stay within the number.
 

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As they say on the Rome show - "first time long time" to the Rx. Great site with great cappers!!

As an old school Duck fan (back to the Reggie Ogburn and Bill Musgrave days) now living in AZ I had to signup and post my 2 cents on this thread. Pepper and WC you both have nailed what is wrong with the Ducks!

1) Way too many bonehead plays
2) Terrible OC!!!

You can tie the rise and fall of the Ducks over the past few years to one thing - Tedford leaving. There is no more offensive creativity and the mental play of the team has gone down the drain. I have been so disgusted with the play calling and misstakes that I have been more of Sun Devil and Cal fan the past few years.

With all that said the Ducks do have some talent and "if" they can put it all together this weekend they will cover (not win). That is way too big of a question mark to me so this game is an easy no play. If I "had" to choose I would take Cal because I have a very bad feeling the Ducks are going to meltdown this weekend and turn the ball over like crazy and make more stupid mistakes - they have done it ALL year so why should this weekend be any different.

My money is on USC to destroy Oregon State this weekend. GL!
 

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a lot of interesting thoughts...what I see with the hard core Oregon fans is they are really scrutinizing Oregon...for good reason...but I really think they match up as well with Cal as anybody in the Pac 10 besides USC...also think they were looking ahead to this game...Day is definitely a stud...so is Clemens, so is RB Whitehead, and the WR Williams and K Siegel...really think Oregon's run defense will slow down Cal's running game...as I mentioned before, Cal's top 3 WR's are banged up...actually think it's going to be a very competitive game...BTW, the Indiana loss isn't looking so bad anymore (I know, 7 turnovers), but they've lost to a respectable Indiana team, OU, and ASU...they've got a lot of fight in them...GL
 

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AZDuck...

Welcome to the best collection of football gamblers in the world. You will find folks here that offer incredible insight. I'm an old-school Beaver and remember the days of Ogden, Musgrave, et.al. well.

GL this weekend
 

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wait a second, i barely tooted any horn for the ducks. i was complaining about the play calling, and complaining about the mediocre quarterback, your not interrupting anything. i agree with you entirely.

once again, its potential that will never happen with the way things are.
 

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my compliements were from a quote of someone else, i played the devils advocate possitively, and said some good things about the players. it doesn't mean they are studs by any means -- there is so much work to go in order to get to a consistent pac10 title.

i was exaggerating -- they have a lot of young players --

its so frustrating to go to their games and see all this great young talent wasted on weak screen calls, and options with slow quarterbacks. not to mention the agony of never throwing it deep.

if anyone can recall their first game last year against mississippi (state) last year, thats the kind of team i want to see. to a tee!
 

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Exactly - I think we all feel the same about our beloved Ducks. They just are not the same anymore for a number of reasons.............

So what is everyone's take on USC vs Oregon State? Two things stick out to me about this game:

1) USC got up 42-0 last weekend and then pulled all their starters out of the game. WSU then scores 12 points and USC puts their starters back in!!!!!! USC wants to destroy everyone the rest of the season so there is no doubt they should be in the national championship.

2) Sure OSU has looked decent the past few weeks but they really didn't play any one either. Any time they play a team with more then one offensive weapon they can't keep up (Boise and Cal for example). Same when they are on offense, a good D will shut them down - just make sure Hass doesn't go crazy and it's game over. No way OSU matches up with USC. Local feedback here in AZ regarding last weeks U of A / OSU game is that U of A pretty much handed the game to the Beavs.

Could be an ugly weekend for the Oregon schools. I'm staying out of the Oregon game but am taking USC - I'll post my picks tomorrow. I have been doing pretty well this year except my money management has a lot to be disired - should be interesting since it will be my first time posting picks here :)
 

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Ah hell.............no one probably cares about my picks anyway so I'll just post em here :) Record is 20-8 this season and I can verify it via my reciepts. As mentioned above I should be doing a lot better $$ wise but doing a crappy job with money management. I don't really bet large amounts of $$ like I see some people do here - mainly $20-$100/game. I take it very seriously but mainly a good way to spend a Saturday drinking beer and watching some games :)

I typically focus on PAC 10 games but have been finding better value in other conferences this year. A 3 for 3 weekend last week helped a lot (Northwestern / Oregon / Oklahoma St). Still really liking NW and OK St so...............

Northwestern +4
Oklahoma St +13
USC -17.5

I can't believe there hasn't been much talk about the NW / Penn St. game! Penn St's offense is just plain offensive. Am I missing something here???? How can Penn be favored when NW just beat Purdue and has also beat Ohio State. Penn has lost to both. And it can't be "well it's Penn at home" because that is BS when you suck this bad. Just like Autzen is no longer "Auzten"..............

Oklahoma St look really well balanced last week which bodes well against a one dimensional Texas team. Only worry is there could be a let down after such a close game to the Sooners last week. They will not stop Benson but if OK St's offense can move the ball like last week they have a very good chance of winning in a shoot out.

USC - see above.

Adding on Texas A & M +12 for small bet 4 game parley. I know........parleys are for suckers but I usually hit 3/4 a season. As for this game I see A & M bouncing back from an embarassing loss last weekend and looking for some revenge from the 77-0 *** kicking the Sooners gave them last year. If they can follow what Oklahoma St did against the Sooners last weekend they should cover.

As Conan started off with - there is a lot of chalk in the PAC 10 schedule this week. I would be inclined to eat that chalk all day long except for the Oregon game. With the PAC 10 being the PAC 10 though I just couldn't jump on anything other then USC:

ASU - has a very bad history of tanking in November after having a couple of key games not go well for them. Could be a let down this week - what the heck happend to their defense anyway?????? No play.

UW / U of A - talk about a toliet bowl! U of A has the better talent but they shoot themselves in the foot so much it makes Oregon's mistakes look not so bad. Throw in UW's coach getting canned and who knows what will happen in this game. You would think that U of A would blow enough plays for UW to win but who knows how UW will respond. No play.

WSU / UCLA: now this one is tempting. UCLA is playing very good right now while WSU is going the other way. The replacement QB at WSU is not looking very good - he is a Eugene guy that is supposed to be the next big thing in Pullman. Just not ready yet. UCLA's strength of schedule looks pretty good so far with two of their loses being to Oklahoma St and Cal - nothing wrong with that. I'll probably place a small bet on UCLA to cover depending on how the morning (NW) game goes.

Oregon / Cal : already discussed. No play.

GL everyone and keep up the good work!!
 

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Listen WC, just for the record... I'm not originally from here. I'm pretty much a non-partisan Oregonian and I know that makes me wierd in this state. I'm always hoping that at least one of the football teams here does something well and gets itself noticed.

Bottom line in my book is that this year's Duck team is the weakest in some years. But... they are learning and improving because they have a great coach. Oregon State is rich in talent but poor in team cohesion because they are not a disciplined squad. They are more prone to all types of disasters because of that fact and we've seen plenty of them disasters all during this season right from the begining. Eliminate the sloppy beaver factor and this team could easily be 7-1 right now. Nobody but Riley is to blame for that.

The civil war won't be as easy for the Beavers as it seems like it should be. Without the slop factor, the Beavs are the better team almost to the man, and I think they will win but I'd have a problem laying a TD.


PS... have you noticed that FOX in Eugene broadcasts all the Detroit Lions games on Sunday? Joey Harrington is sorely missed but I think Clemens is coming along nicely as a replacement. Don't get me wrong, I'm not down on the Beavs at all, as a matter of fact, I think if they get a bowl bid they will do some serious damage to whomever they play a la New Mexico last season. I'm just trying to be objective.
 

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Conan said:
Listen WC, just for the record... I'm not originally from here. I'm pretty much a non-partisan Oregonian and I know that makes me wierd in this state. I'm always hoping that at least one of the football teams here does something well and gets itself noticed.

Bottom line in my book is that this year's Duck team is the weakest in some years. But... they are learning and improving because they have a great coach. Oregon State is rich in talent but poor in team cohesion because they are not a disciplined squad. They are more prone to all types of disasters because of that fact and we've seen plenty of them disasters all during this season right from the begining. Eliminate the sloppy beaver factor and this team could easily be 7-1 right now. Nobody but Riley is to blame for that.

The civil war won't be as easy for the Beavers as it seems like it should be. Without the slop factor, the Beavs are the better team almost to the man, and I think they will win but I'd have a problem laying a TD.


PS... have you noticed that FOX in Eugene broadcasts all the Detroit Lions games on Sunday? Joey Harrington is sorely missed but I think Clemens is coming along nicely as a replacement. Don't get me wrong, I'm not down on the Beavs at all, as a matter of fact, I think if they get a bowl bid they will do some serious damage to whomever they play a la New Mexico last season. I'm just trying to be objective.
great post. ive lived here for a year now, recently moved from the bay area, and attended a certain school marshall faulk went to.

should be interesting, def. fun to watch. (CAL OR that is)
 

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To all the Duckfans here, all I have to say is:

"BUTTERFINGERS!!"

Kind of wierd to think that Oregon may have missed playing in the Rose Bowl by virtue of one right on the numbers dropped pass.

But to WC, listen bud, I know which side of the Civil War you will be on but honestly, Belotti hired Tedford because he knew what he was looking for so you should give him some credit. I would't be so harsh towards him. They weren't so bad before Tedford came and went either.

But did Kellen "Tarkington" Clemens look good or what? He's turning out to be a better asset than I thought.
 

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garcias conan. i was on this one thanks to you and others and it was really never in doubt. Duck U had this one covered wire-wire


that last second rop by the Duck U WR might have made the Pac-10 a TON of money. if he catches it - Duck U probably wins and Cal is NOT going to a BCS bowl game meaning about $15M LESS for the Pac 10.

that dropped pass also might have cost Utah a BCS bid - one they deserve but i can see the big conferences "F***ing" the "little guys" as much as possible!
 

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Interesting read Winky. I also think a little bump on this thread would be a good idea because I want this post to sit right next to WC's on the page becuase there is some interesting stuff to point out.

And for what it's worth, considering what came down last season, the only JUST AND FAIR BCS championship matchup would involve USC and OK. Just for being left out of that game, I think that's why USC will romp (though they would have done it last season too given the chance.)
 

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Fiesta bowl will take Utah if they win out, they could care less about Texas. Utah against W. Virginia and the whole world is talking about which conference belongs in the BCS...only way to get maximum exposure when you get stuck with a dog like the Fiesta Bowl gets this year.
 

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