Got 4 PMs (since I turned PMs on) asking for my plays. I am in Vegas (at the Hilton) so I won't be able to post my 2H plays, have to run to the ticket counter and do that myself.
For the 2H plays - look at multiple books. Pinnacle will have lines up early as will The Greek (first to everything), SportsInteraction (gold mine), 5Dimes, BetPhoenix, BetOnline. Whatever team that Pinnacle doesn't have the best line for (excluding 5Dimes reduced juice lines), bet on that team. For those who don't understand why -4.5 (-115) is different than -4.5 (-110), or why Pinnacle will almost ALWAYS have a better line for both sides than .20 books, learn. Also, ignore the obvious. 10 points were scored first half? Take the over 2H. They won the 1H 20-3 and the 2H line is -7.5? Take +7.5.
If you don't know, I don't do any thinking other than looking at numbers. I bet on line movements, percentages, and public perception of games. Week 1 all may plays are on teams that were on the "fade" list last year - these teams do well week 1.
Michigan -13
Line opened at The Greek at -7. 3 minutes later it went up to -8. 2 hours later it hit -9.5. Within 4 hours it was up to -11. HUGE movement early by sharps. Public LOVES WMU. This is a reverse line movement play. 57% showing on SBRodds on WMU, while the line has grown, and grown, and grown. Other sites show 60/40 which is larger than normal on the dog. Really like this play. Michigan should be out to make a statement after the negative media around their program. Players are pissed about the 3-9 season. Rodriguez teams do much better year 2. MAC teams NEVER cover against Big Ten teams on the road week 1, I created a thread a while ago about that. Don't be afraid to take the over too.
Notre Dame -14.5
This line went beyond the key -14 number and that's a sign that they'll be a play. ND opened at -6.5 at The Greek and within 15 minutes it was up to 11.5. By the end of the day it was at -14.5. ND has something to prove this year. They know they have a good team and Vegas loves them with the 11th LVSC ranking. ESPN will say "watch out for Nevada!" and the public will think that 14.5 is quite a large amount of points. Both on Covers and SportsInsights I see over 44% on Nevada, yet a 8 point move ND's way, very easy to identify where the sharp money is.
Washington State +17
I like both Washington teams. This number opened at +22 at The Greek, and within an hour was down to +18. No one is going to bet on 2-10 Washington State who only beat 0-12 Washington in OT at home and a FCS team except for those who know something. Just like no one was going to bet on North Texas except for those who knew something. I show 83% on SportsInsights, and very high numbers on SBRodds and Covers. Keep in mind overall reputation in week one. This line would make no sense if it was a line in 2005. Stanford would never lay 17 on the road in conference with a freshman QB. Just as Ball State would never lay 17 against anyone OOC.
BYU-Oklahoma UNDER 65
All the value may have been squeezed out of this line already, so tread lightly. This line is what it is because Oklahoma scored 60+ the last few weeks of the regular season against crappy defenses. Within 2 hours from the opener the number was knocked down at The Greek from 75 to 70. You've still got 60%+ of the betting public going against this move at Covers.
Texas A&M -14.5
The Greek put out -6 for Texas A&M and that lasted all but 1 minute. 10 minutes later, it was up to 10.5. By the end of the day, sharp action got it up to 14. I am a bit worried because there aren't many intrigued by New Mexico on this game, all the odds sites have well over 70% on A&M. I want reverse line movement on most of my plays, and this doesn't have it at all. The under looks decent though.
Washington +17.5
People LOVE LSU. LSU is a big time square bet in this one, and a game that will be a "bail out" play for many. Maybe week 1 people learn not to chase on the late night game. The Greek put out +22 on Washington, and it was pounded down to +15 within an hour and a half. Locker is back for UW and when he is there they are competitive. A good QB especially one with mobility can carry a team. No one has the balls to take a 0-12 team especially against a top 10 caliber opponent. Yet the sharps clobbered this soft +22 line, and knocked it down a TD.
Lots of other games I haven't decided on yet. Just some leans here, I'll decide what I want to play later. And yes I know games start in 7 hours.
Central Michigan-Arizona UNDER 55.5
UTEP -8.5
Idaho +3
Idaho-New Mexico state UNDER 53
UCLA -19
Eastern Michigan -3.5 (side note: GO EAGLES!)
Connecticut -4
Clemson over 47.5
Baylor-Wake Forest over 53.5
UAB -5.5
Illinois -6
Georgia +5
For the 2H plays - look at multiple books. Pinnacle will have lines up early as will The Greek (first to everything), SportsInteraction (gold mine), 5Dimes, BetPhoenix, BetOnline. Whatever team that Pinnacle doesn't have the best line for (excluding 5Dimes reduced juice lines), bet on that team. For those who don't understand why -4.5 (-115) is different than -4.5 (-110), or why Pinnacle will almost ALWAYS have a better line for both sides than .20 books, learn. Also, ignore the obvious. 10 points were scored first half? Take the over 2H. They won the 1H 20-3 and the 2H line is -7.5? Take +7.5.
If you don't know, I don't do any thinking other than looking at numbers. I bet on line movements, percentages, and public perception of games. Week 1 all may plays are on teams that were on the "fade" list last year - these teams do well week 1.
Michigan -13
Line opened at The Greek at -7. 3 minutes later it went up to -8. 2 hours later it hit -9.5. Within 4 hours it was up to -11. HUGE movement early by sharps. Public LOVES WMU. This is a reverse line movement play. 57% showing on SBRodds on WMU, while the line has grown, and grown, and grown. Other sites show 60/40 which is larger than normal on the dog. Really like this play. Michigan should be out to make a statement after the negative media around their program. Players are pissed about the 3-9 season. Rodriguez teams do much better year 2. MAC teams NEVER cover against Big Ten teams on the road week 1, I created a thread a while ago about that. Don't be afraid to take the over too.
Notre Dame -14.5
This line went beyond the key -14 number and that's a sign that they'll be a play. ND opened at -6.5 at The Greek and within 15 minutes it was up to 11.5. By the end of the day it was at -14.5. ND has something to prove this year. They know they have a good team and Vegas loves them with the 11th LVSC ranking. ESPN will say "watch out for Nevada!" and the public will think that 14.5 is quite a large amount of points. Both on Covers and SportsInsights I see over 44% on Nevada, yet a 8 point move ND's way, very easy to identify where the sharp money is.
Washington State +17
I like both Washington teams. This number opened at +22 at The Greek, and within an hour was down to +18. No one is going to bet on 2-10 Washington State who only beat 0-12 Washington in OT at home and a FCS team except for those who know something. Just like no one was going to bet on North Texas except for those who knew something. I show 83% on SportsInsights, and very high numbers on SBRodds and Covers. Keep in mind overall reputation in week one. This line would make no sense if it was a line in 2005. Stanford would never lay 17 on the road in conference with a freshman QB. Just as Ball State would never lay 17 against anyone OOC.
BYU-Oklahoma UNDER 65
All the value may have been squeezed out of this line already, so tread lightly. This line is what it is because Oklahoma scored 60+ the last few weeks of the regular season against crappy defenses. Within 2 hours from the opener the number was knocked down at The Greek from 75 to 70. You've still got 60%+ of the betting public going against this move at Covers.
Texas A&M -14.5
The Greek put out -6 for Texas A&M and that lasted all but 1 minute. 10 minutes later, it was up to 10.5. By the end of the day, sharp action got it up to 14. I am a bit worried because there aren't many intrigued by New Mexico on this game, all the odds sites have well over 70% on A&M. I want reverse line movement on most of my plays, and this doesn't have it at all. The under looks decent though.
Washington +17.5
People LOVE LSU. LSU is a big time square bet in this one, and a game that will be a "bail out" play for many. Maybe week 1 people learn not to chase on the late night game. The Greek put out +22 on Washington, and it was pounded down to +15 within an hour and a half. Locker is back for UW and when he is there they are competitive. A good QB especially one with mobility can carry a team. No one has the balls to take a 0-12 team especially against a top 10 caliber opponent. Yet the sharps clobbered this soft +22 line, and knocked it down a TD.
Lots of other games I haven't decided on yet. Just some leans here, I'll decide what I want to play later. And yes I know games start in 7 hours.
Central Michigan-Arizona UNDER 55.5
UTEP -8.5
Idaho +3
Idaho-New Mexico state UNDER 53
UCLA -19
Eastern Michigan -3.5 (side note: GO EAGLES!)
Connecticut -4
Clemson over 47.5
Baylor-Wake Forest over 53.5
UAB -5.5
Illinois -6
Georgia +5
