But PINNACLE drifting down...

[dolphin]

That's all well and good for RealPolitics.com

BUT...

Pinnacle at 10K a pop or more over the phone, I guess, is down to 130-120. Bush is clearly still a favorite, but there must be a shift in the most recent exit polling.

The early morning exit poll dissemination has never been so available. The fact of Bush doing fairly well may spur on hesitant Kerry voters or ones who may have avoided NE weather. Also, Republicans are more personally organized and methodical...likely to vote earlier than many typically Democratic types.

 

[xpanda]

Pinny now moving back to Bush at -128.

Interestingly the lines on Florida and Ohio (-154 and -147 respectively) haven't moved all day as far as I've noticed.

 

[dolphin]

My note was with Bush -130, Kerry +120...they then went 124 Bush and lowered top bet to 5K. Back to -128, now -127.

Yes, Ohio and Florida prices holding steady.

If Ohio and Florida are the only actual keys now, election odds would look like this:

APPX...3/5 X 3/5 = 9/25 Bush must win both and odds of doing so are 36/100. Kerry would be a 64-36 favorite, -178

If Bush has a 20% chance of PA (which would guarantee a national win) then Kerry is APPX -108.

This is all giving Pinnacle #s full respect in Ohio and Florida.

 

[xpanda]

Fast drop on Florida. Bush down to -137. Ohio not moving.

 

[whyguy]

but you all got to remember bush has never gone to even or kerry to eeven, bush wins he has been ahead and all it takes is someone like pete to keep believing kerry will win to drop numbers,,,, lefties keep pissing away your money lol 4MORE YEARS BABY:105317756

 

[dolphin]

Except that Pinnacle has faded close to 1M in Kerry bets over 1 hour...unlikely to be just hedging or hoping. Something is brewing...