Bush retakes lead over Chad and Jeremy 47-45% (Rassmussen poll)

[PatPatriot]

Bush Retakes Lead in Rasmussen Poll: 47% to 45%
Rasmussen Reports ^ | July 19, 2004 | Scott Rasmussen



Presidential:

Bush 47% Kerry 45%

Congressional

Democrats 42% GOP 40%

Presidential Approval: 52%

Economic confidence at highest level in six months.


Excerpted - click for full article ^

 

[LarryWiley]

What I find very interesting with this poll are the numbers for Pa, Fl & Oh. Personally I think the winner of 2 out of those 3 or better will win the race.

Fl. Kerry leads 48 - 43

Pa. Kerry leads 48 - 43

Oh. Bush leads 46 - 42

 

[D2bets]

Larry, I tend to agree but of those 3 PA is no contest. Kerry wins that hands down. I actually think Kerry has a better shot at Ohio thna Florida. I think it comes down to Kerry needing to take either Ohio or Florida to win.

 

[LarryWiley]

Just some thoughts. Gov Tom Ridge will stump heavily in Pa. for dubya down the stretch and may make it closer than it is now. Fl. will break for Bush in the end. Oh. is a toss up.

 

[D2bets]

I agree. PA goes Kerry and Fla goes Bush. I think Ohio will be the flashpoint this year and they will decide the election by.....less than 10,000 votes, maybe a lot less. That's my fearless prediction.

What's with the Chad and Jeremy reference? I must have missed that one. Is Chad going to be hanging or something?

 

[Redneckman]

I think that's good analysis, d2bets. I would say Kerry will win PA by 4 points or so, Bush will win Florida by about the same, but I think Bush may win Ohio by 2 or 3 points also, and I do agree that those three states are the key.

 

[ChuckSims]

Kerry will win all three states in question. PA is not even in play as Kerry holds a clear lead. New Zogby poll has Kerry 49½-43% lead over Bush so the "Fla will break for Bush statement is ridiculous. Something major will have to happen for Bush to capture Fla.

 

[wilheim]

Rassmussen poll projected electoral votes:

Electoral College: Kerry 254 - Bush 197


wil.

 

[Redneckman]

He doesn't update that every day like the head to head poll Wil. He updates the electoral college twice a month, and those numbers will change when he updates at the end of the month.

red.

 

[PatPatriot]

When its all said and done Bush will when handily...mark my words.

 

[Seymour]

Can't see Bush winning Florida - the state will set records for turnout after the last time - there will be a high turn out of dems particularly the apathetic ones - Bush has really divided the country.

If Kerry wins California (55 votes), NY 31, Florida 27 and PA 22? - its is over - Bush's only big take is Texas with 34.

 

[Shotgun]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Seymour:
Can't see Bush winning Florida - the state will set records for turnout after the last time - there will be a high turn out of dems particularly the apathetic ones - Bush has really divided the country.

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

That's what we heard when Jeb Bush was running in 2002. He didn't do so badly there.

 

[billthecop]

Gee, Rassmussen says:
Kerry 254
Bush 197
That equals 451, the question is who gets the other 87 (as eveybody knows there are 538 electoral votes)?

 

[ChuckSims]

Seymour is correct about Fla. The voter turnout in Fla will be massive. The anti-Bush vote is strong everywhere. I think Kerry is a good bet at -102 to win Fla. Pinnacle has those odds. Bush -108 to carry Fla.

 

[JayHarn3]

Kerry will win PA just on the steel industry alone. PA just elected a Dem. Gov. so that is also a plus.

FL is a no brainer unless the citizens aren't allowed to vote again like in 2000.

 

[ChuckSims]

Jayharn3, I agree with you. If Kerry wins Fla. he will win the nomination. I just want Bush out of the White House. He is no leader. More of a clown.

 

[Skyweasel]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Chuck Sims:
Kerry will win all three states in question. PA is not even in play as Kerry holds a clear lead. New Zogby poll has Kerry 49½-43% lead over Bush so the "Fla will break for Bush statement is ridiculous. Something major will have to happen for Bush to capture Fla.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Blackbox voting will be major. Another stolen election.

 

[ChuckSims]

Skyweasel, Please explain "black box".

 

[Skyweasel]

Chuck,

http://www.blackboxvoting.org/

 

[PatPatriot]

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