Buffalo Bills vs Indianapolis Colts 11/25/2012

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Expect a close game with the Buffalo Bills winning 48% of simulations, and the Indianapolis Colts 52% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Buffalo Bills commit fewer turnovers in 55% of simulations and they go on to win 68% when they take care of the ball. The Indianapolis Colts wins 77% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. C.J. Spiller is averaging 66 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (25% chance) then he helps his team win 67%. Andrew Luck is averaging 267 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (32% chance) then he helps his team win 62%.
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