Brotherwo's Conference Championship Selections (last 7 Weeks 22-7-1 76%)

Brotherwo · Jan 12, 2009

Divisional Recap: 2-1
Baltimore +3 Winner!
6.5 point teaser--Philadelphia +11 & NYG/Philly O32 Winner!
San Diego +7 Loser

Last 7 weeks: 22-7-1 (76%)
14-7-1 ATS/ML (67%)
8-0 Teasers (100%)

A winning weekend but I ended up tossing some of my profit away on the Chargers. Tough 2nd half for this team, that 2nd half opening drive was a backbreaker (three 3rd and long converted and then 1st play by the Chargers was a tipped interception).

Anyways moving on to Conference Championship games. I'm not locking in any games yet but I do have some early observations.

Eagles at Cardinals
I've been on the Eagles for the past two weeks, and I got those two wins on the Eagles defensive effort. They are incredibly strong at stopping the run. Theyve been successful against speedy guys like Adrian Peterson and bulls like Brandon Jacobs so I think theyll remain successful against Edge. So that means the game hindges on Cards Pass Offense and Eagles Pass Defense. Sheldon Brown and Asante Samual were successful in their first meeting against the Cards amazing wideouts and Warner ended up tossing 3 picks. Jim Johnson always does a great job at drawing up blitz packages, but the question is will those blitzs produce Warner INT or big plays to Fitzgerald?

At first glance I like the Eagles, strong defense wins championships. I also like the line -3.5 for the visitor Eagles, not giving much respect to the host. However the Eagles dont really run over opponents and with the firepower of the Cards makes for a dangerous combination.

Ravens at Steelers
5.5 points in a low scoring affair (~33) is more like 7.5. My concern about the Ravens is their play calling. Against the Titans their play calling was incredibly conservative eventhough Flacco showed success at finding holes in the secondary. I believe Harbaugh will keep the rains on Flacco and remain with the "let our defense win the game" strategy, and I hate beting on that side. Parker is healthy, Big Ben looked great off a concussion, defense played solid, how do you bet against that?

Let the handicapping begin
And Good luck with your selections for this Championship Sunday:toast:

Johnny~Vegas · Jan 12, 2009

Im liking the Steelers alot!

LouHoltz · Jan 12, 2009

If I am correct, Asante Samuels did not play in the Thanksgiving day game due to a neck injury. Thats 3 int's without the Eagles leading CB.

Brotherwo · Jan 12, 2009

LouHoltz said:
If I am correct, Asante Samuels did not play in the Thanksgiving day game due to a neck injury. Thats 3 int's without the Eagles leading CB.

You are correct. Samuels was out and Hanson played pretty well inplace of Samuel (got a really nice INT, however had a penalty or two called on him)

Here is the games highlights (Week 13 Cards at Eagles)
http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80cdc280

and the other matchups
Week 4 Ravens @ Steelers http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80b3f11a
Week 15 Steelers @ Ravens http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80d53086

Brotherwo · Jan 16, 2009

alright here it is, my best play of the weekend.
I have a few other leans and will be making another play or two on Sunday morning, I need to check out quarter lines for the Steelers game :103631605

6.5 point Teaser<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
Cardinals +11/Steelers +.5 (Bodog -120)
<o></o>
<o> </o>
Eagles at Cardinals<o></o>
The first meeting was very one sided and the Eagles ran away with a 48-28 victory. McNabb returned in that game to pretty much play for his job and he sure did. (He stated in November his mind was out of football and on his pregnant wife and now he is fully ‘in the zone’) McNabb plays his best when his back is up against the wall. I always believed that after McNabb removes ‘his back from the wall’, his jovial side comes out and his focus and play start to slip. His play in the past two weeks has been good but no where near great. Let’s make it clear the defense is the reason they won the games in Minny and New York. The Eagles offense has had hiccups over the course of the season (besides Thanksgiving Night against the Cards). Westbrooke’s injury is lingering and the effect is very noticeable. He hasn’t been able to hit holes with his bum knee like he had in the past. So I have concerns on a consistent offensive output from the Eagles.

In 2008, Arizona defense wasn’t something to write home about however since January they deserve mention. Arizona Run defense is one of the most impressive surprises in this years playoffs. To hold Turner to 42 yards on 18 carries is almost unbelievable. In the Divisional round, the Cards defensive line and secondary rose up, making for a 27-7 halftime lead. This was huge as it pulled the plug on Carolinas rushing attack and forced Delhomme to take chances. AZ did a great job at shutting down a speedy Steve Smith so I imagine they can hawk Jackson in a similar fashion.
<o

> </o

>
The Eagles live off their strong defense. Jim Johnson knows Warner struggles outside the tackles and will bring blitz’ from every angle trying to push Warner from the pocket. I can guarantee blitz pick up was the daily practice routine this week, focus is on getting the ball out of Warners hand in 3 seconds.

Against a potent offense like the Cards I can’t see the Eagles running away with this one especially on the Cards home turf. The scene in Glendale should be rowdy as this is the first NFC Championship game in Cardinal history combined with an altered stadium configuration to fit more fans inside.
<o

> </o

>
After getting manhandled in their first meeting, I like the Cards to rebound with a hard fought game which is decided in the 4th quarter.
<o

> </o

>
-Westbrooke is probable, did not practice Thursday.
-Boldin is practicing and is expected to play.
-Spach out with torn knee ligament
<o

> </o

>
Prediction: Eagles 26 Cardinals 23
<o

> </o

>
<o

> </o

>
Ravens at Steelers<o></o>
Baltimore has had two solid defensive performances, they produced 5 turnovers against Miami and 3 against Tennessee. I am sick of hearing people saying how fortunate the Ravens were to win against the Titans, the Ravens consistently win by producing those opportune timed turnovers. This is nothing new and if the Ravens want to move on to the Super Bowl they will have to win the turnover battle.
After Big Bens concussion and his recent troubles at holding on to the ball, I figured he’d struggle against the Charger. However this was not the case, Ben was incredibly accurate and posed in the pocket, outside of his number he had a great game.
<o

> </o

>
Flacco has been more than impressive this year, he is unshakable, an amazing arm and pocket presence that I haven’t seen in a rookie. He shuffles up in the pocket to avoid end pressure like Peyton Manning and his spirals are tight and accurate.
<o

> </o

>
I think the major advantage in this game is health and freshness. Ravens haven’t had a week off since week 2 and it is starting to take its toll. Suggs, Mason, and Rolle are all Questionable (all will play but at what level?). The bye in Wildcard Week was just what the Steelers needed. Willie Parker and Big Ben used this extra week to rest and it showed on the field. Parker looked fast and hit the holes hard, and we saw the success Chris Johnson had.
<o

> </o

>
Jim Harbaugh has done a fabulous job with the Ravens this year. He understands the power of his defense and their ability to single handedly win games. Also he closely follows the theory of putting a rookie quarterback “in a position to succeed”. However I feel Harbaughs conception of “position to succeed” is too conservative for a QB with this much talent. While this strategy has a track record of success, I think it will be the downfall of this team. Flacco has exponentially improved week after week (showing the ability to make the necessary throws) yet the play calling and game plans remain conservative at best. Expect the Ravens to continue to run the ball on 1st and 2nd down, and pass on 3rd. This level of creativity won’t be enough to drive on LeBeau’s defense but I see Harbaugh having a hard time getting away from the RRP strategy.
<o

> </o

>
Pittsburgh should toss some swing passes to Moore because they know the Ravens struggle at covering RBs out of the back field. Also the Titans exposed the Ravens rushing defense, Chris Johnson was able to find some large gaps. If the Steelers hold on to the ball and Willie Parker can continue to pound the ball for 4 ypc., the Steelers will cover the spread.
<o

> </o

>
-Polamalu is probable, watch closely. His energy on the field is important.
<o

> </o

>
Prediction --- Steelers 24 Ravens 16
<o

> </o

>
<o

> </o

>
Good luck with your selections :toast: