Brooklynworm's picks and predictions for nfl week #4.

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THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL, NFL WEEK #4, BALTIMORE (44.5) @ PITTSBURGH (+2.5)

This is a tough rivalry match, that is a must win situation for both teams. With Pittsburgh’s Roethlisberger out for this game, will his back up Michael Vick be up to the task to lead his team? Looking at Vick’s prior history as an NFL QB, the immediate answer is no. In this situation, Vick had a short week to prepare, and hasn’t learned all their passing schemes. On top of that, Vick cannot read blitzes, and commits too many turnovers. Vick has the offensive weapons surrounding him, and with RB Le Von Bell’s return to the lineup, may take some pressure off Vick. Baltimore is 0-3, and this is a game they must win. Problem is, the Ravens don’t have enough talent on defense, and have too many holes. The Raven secondary is awful, they have a horrid offensive line, that can’t pass or run block. However, offensively, QB Flacco has enough offensive weapons, to exploit Pittsburgh’s weak secondary. As desperate as Baltimore is for a victory, I cannot side with them in this contest minus Roethlisberger. Expect Pittsburgh to run LeVeon Bell often, and open up the passing game for Vick . If Vick can manage avoid turnovers, they should be able to win this game. I also expect a high scoring game. Pittsburgh 27 Baltimore 23. Play the Money Line: Pittsburgh, ATS take Pittsburgh -2.5, and play OVER the total 44.5.



SUNDAY & MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL, WEEK #4
NEW YORK JETS 42.0 @ MIAMI (+2)
This is a “Trap Game”, and buyer beware before taking the Jets. We know that the Dolphins have played uninspired football these past three weeks, and there is nothing positive that I can add to help their chances in London. Miami was humiliated at home last week, and the Media, and their critics were all over them. Emotionally, this may have been a wakeup call for the Dolphins. Regardless if the Jets appear to be the better team on paper, the result may be a Dolphin victory. “HUMILIATION”, is Miami’s motivation. PREDICTED SCORE: MIAMI 21 NY JETS 20. ATS MIAMI +2, UNDER THE TOTAL 41.5.
JACKSONVILLE 48.0 @ INDIANAPOLIS (-9)



As of Friday, the status on Andrew Luck playing this Sunday is questionable. As it stands, the Colts don’t have an offensive line that can block, and if Luck is a no go, the Jaguars could make this a game. So let’s pretend Luck is starting Sunday. We learned that when Luck is pressured in the pocket, he is prone to making mistakes. In this scenario, Jacksonville has a pass rush, and the Colts have holes in their offensive line. If Jacksonville’s defense can exert a consistent pass rush throughout the game, they could protect their suspect secondary. Jacksonville on offense, has issues of their own. Their offensive line can’t block either way, and Bortles will be under fire. The Colts are clearly the better team, but I like Jacksonville getting 8.5 points as the Dog. PREDICTED SCORE INDIANAPLOIS 23 JACKSONVILLE 17. ATS JACKSONVILLE +9, UNDER 48.0.
HOUSTON 46.5 @ ATLANTA -6.5



QB Matt Ryan plays his best football at home. He, and WR Julio Jones are a hot combo, and are on fire. However, this weekend , the Falcons will face a stout Texan defense, that loves to pressure opposing QB’s led by JJ Watt, and Clowney. If Atlanta attempts to run the football, they will have to contend with Vince Wilfork in the middle. Houston’s offense struggles with QB Ryan Mallet under center. Mallet even struggled against a poor Tampa Bay defense last week. However, Atlanta lacks a pass rush, and that may give Mallet the opportunity to exploit the Falcons weak secondary. It will be interesting if Arian Foster suits up this Sunday. If so, his presence can mean a game changer. PREDICTED SCORE : Atlanta 23 Houston 20. ATS HOUSTON + 6.5. UNDER THE TOTAL 46.5.



CAROLINA 40.0 @ TAMPA BAY +3
Cam Newton had a huge day against a terrible New Orleans defense last week. This Sunday, they play another helpless defense in Tampa. The Panthers score 27 points against the Saints, and should be able to duplicate that same score versus the Bucs. TB cannot stop the run, and the Panthers have solid defense. However, Carolina lost their best pass rusher to injury, and they traded with Chicago this week to obtain Jared Allen to sure up their defense. This could be a factor, if Carolina’s best defensive player Like Kuechly remains sidelined with a concussion. Check on his status before game day. Tampa bay QB Winston continues to struggle as an NFL signal caller, and Carolina will not make life any easier for him. By comparison, if TB only managed to score 9 points against the Houston defense in week #3, they probably will be lucky to score two touchdowns against the Panthers. PREDICTED SCORE: CAROLINA 23 TAMPA BAY 13. ATS CAROLINA -3, UNDER 40.0 TOTAL.



NEW YORK GIANTS 45.5 BUFFALO -5.5
Tough game to call , with Buffalo’s two playmakers injured , McCoy and Watkins. The question will be if their backups can step up , and replace their presence on the field?. The NY Giants front seven is weak against the run, and have no visible pass rush to pressure Rookie QB Taylor. If Taylor, has time in the pocket to pass, and Rookie RB Karlos Williams can replace McCoy rushing the football successfully , then the Giants will be in trouble. Buffalo’s defense has an outstanding pass rush, and the Giants offensive line has taken a bunch of hits with injuries. This will place Eli Manning in harms way, and he is ineffective when pressured in the pocket. In addition, the Giants only have one play maker at wide receiver, Beckham Jr.. New York doesn’t have any other reliable receivers, and that is why they held tryout all this week to find another pass catcher. The Giant running game , will be silenced by the Bills physical front seven. I don’t see the Giants winning this game, however, I think with Buffalo laying -5.5 points , may be a tad too much. PREDICTED SCORE: BUFFALO 21 NEW YORK GIANTS 17. ATS NEW YORK GIANTS +5.5, UNDER 45.5 POINTS.



OAKLAND 44.5 @ CHICAGO +3
Should we buy into the Raiders recent success, and improvement on the field?. Oakland , in the past, isn’t a good road team. However, they play against the Chicago Bears, which I consider the worst team in the NFL. The Bears are so bad, that they look like they are already mailing in the rest of their season. They have started to make trades with their key personnel, and the only two playmakers they have are Rb Matt Forte, and Alshon Jeffery. So expect the Bears to keep to their ground attack, and hope that Forte can exploit Oakland ‘s suspect offensive line that can’t stop the run. So the Bear game plan here, is to rush the football often, and manage the clock with long drives. On the other side, Oakland should have a field day against the Bears enept secondary. I expect big things from QB Carr, and WR Cooper, to make things happen on offense. By the recent Bear’s trades of Allen , and Bostic, weakened their pass rush , and rush defense. PREDICTED SCORE OAKLAND 20 CHICAGO 13. ATS OAKLAND -3, UNDER 44.5.


KANSAS CITY 44.5 @ CINCINNATI -4
Kansas City’s problems all point to their starting QB Alex Smith. He cannot play consistent football against good defenses. This weekend, Smith will face an elite Cincinnati defense that will shut him down. Besides Smith, the KC offensive like is terrible, and if they can’t pass, or run block against a stout Bengal defense, I doubt they will not have any chance of winning this contest. The only hope KC has is their RB Jamaal Charles. As for defense, Kansas City has an excellent defense, and their defense keeps them afloat. However, Cincinnati has one of the top elite offensive lines, and they provide excellent pass protection for QB Andy Dalton. At running back, don’t forget they have a two headed running attack with Hill, and Bernard. PREDICTED SCORE: CINCINNATI 21 KANSAS CITY 17. ATS PUSH KC, UNDER 44.5.
CLEVELAND 45.0 @ SAN DIEGO -7.5



The Chargers entire offensive line is banged up, and are questionable for Sunday. This will effect QB Rivers performance, when he fades back into the pocket under pressure. In addition, the offensive line may have trouble run blocking the Cleveland front seven. However, keep in mind, this is the Browns, they are on the road, and there is already a QB controversy going on in the Cleveland locker room, as to whom should start at QB. Regardless of SD’s offensive line situation, the Chargers have playmakers, and Cleveland does not. San Diego fields a solid defense , and Cleveland fields an anemic offense. The biggest weakness the Chargers have, is stopping the run. Besides all that, I personally think that QB Manziel should be the starter, and not McCown. Manziel showed he can rally his team, and get them motivated to play, after beating Tennessee in week #2. In conclusion, San Diego will be the favorites, and laying 7.5 points to the Browns . I think that number is too high. PREDICTED SCORE: SAN DIEGO 23 CCLEVELAND 17. ATS BROWNS +7.5, UNDER 45.0.



GREEN BAY 48.5 @ SAN FRANCISCO +8
This is a no brainer. Look at the last two games the 49 ers have played. They surrendered 43 & 47 points respectively, to Pittsburgh, and Arizona. Now they face an elite QB named Aaron Rodgers. The SF secondary is probably one of the worst in the league, and their front seven has trouble stopping the run. So one must calculate, that Green Bay should score at least 30 points.The other issue facing the 49 ers is their QB Kaepernick. Recall, Kaepernick in the off season, trained hard with Kurt Warner, to perfect his foot work in the pocket. After beating Minnesota soundly in week #1, Kaepernick made us early believers , that he transitioned from a scrambling QB , to a complete NFL QB. That theory , went quickly downhill after weeks two, and three. So if Kaepernick continues to reverts back to his old self, and mismanage the pocket, he, and the 49 ers will continue to play poorly. It also doesn’t help Kaepernick’s cause, that he is supported by an inept offensive line. I predict that Kaepernick will continue to make bad decisions, and mistakes. PREDICTED SCORE GREEN BAY 31 SAN FRANCISCO 20. ATS GREEN BAY -8, OVER 48.5.



MINNESOTA 43.0 @ DENVER -7
The Broncos are no longer that all out passing team, that relied mainly on Peyton Manning’s ability , to carry this team. Their offensive scheme is to run the football more, pass less, and rely on their elite defense to make big plays. So far, this new formula is working for the Broncos, and are winning games. As for the Vikings, if you exclude their awful performance on opening night, they have played much better football in their last two games. This improvement has come about on their defense coming together. The Vikes can defend the pass, stop the run with their defensive line, and generate a pass rush on the opposing QB. If Minnesota, can avoid falling behind in this game, they will be able to utilize their strength on offense, by deploying Adrian Peterson to carry the rock. Denver, possesses one of the best NFL defenses, and this can spell trouble for QB Bridgewater, if he is forced into many third and long situations. Denver loves to use many blitz packages, and only an effective Viking running game, could keep Denver back on their heels. Overall, the biggest factor for me, is taking Peyton Manning’s experience, and ability, over Bridgewater’s, any day of the week. This will either be a close game, or a Denver blow out. PREDICTED SCORE: DENVER 23 MINNESOTA 17. ATS MINNESOTA +7, UNDER 43.0.



ST. LOUIS 42.5 @ ARIZONA -7
Considering who the Cardinals have played thus far this season ( New Orleans, Chicago, and San Francisco), one must ask if Arizona is overrated?. I am not sure if St. Louis is the answer, however, they have a good enough defense, to keep this game close. This will be the best defense that the Cardinals will face this season. I would be more confident on selecting the Rams, if their offense wasn’t so awful. Other than that, it is what it is, and we just have to see what transpires. Meantime my PREDICTED SCORE: Arizona 23 ST. LOUIS 17. ATS ST. LOUIS +7, UNDER 42.5.



DALLAS 46.5 @ NEW ORLEANS -4

Check the updated lines on this game before kick off. No Brees?, and certainly no Romo, means more rushing on offense from both teams. (check the status on Brees). Dallas has the edge for these reasons. They have the best offensive line in the NFL, versus a suspect Saints front seven on defense. Dallas QB Weeden, is capable enough to attack the Saints weak secondary, and lastly, if Dallas has an outstanding offensive line, how are the Saints going to pressure Weeden , with a non existent pass rush ?. Conversely, The Saints are capable on offense to exploit the Cowboy defense, that already banged up. These injuries on defense, has affected their pass rushing abilities. This game should be high scoring. I like Dallas in this spot, but have reservations if Brees is cleared to start. Again , check the lines, and the injury status situation. PREDICTED SCORE DALLAS 28 NEW ORLEANS 23. ATS DALLAS +4, OVER 46.5.



DETROIT 43.0 @ SEATTLE -10
Seattle just beaten up an awful Chicago team, and now are facing another defenseless team at home. If Seattle beat the Bears handily last week 26-0, what’s in store for those visiting Lions?. The Seattle offense finally started to click last week, and has helped their confidence. The Lions , lost their pass rush, when they lost Suh. This has created problems for the Detroit secondary. The only thing Detroit has going for them in this game, is the ineffectiveness of the Seahawks offensive line. To date, the Seattle offensive line , hasn’t lived up to expectations, and thus has effected their offense. So the problem is in this matchup, which one is better. The Seahawks weak offensive line, versus the suspect Detroit front seven?. Defensively, here is where Seattle has the edge. They still have a top NFL defense, and the Detroit Lion offensive line will be no challenge for the Seattle seven. The Seattle defense will for to Lions into mistakes, and turnovers. I can’t see why Seattle can’t repeat another 26-0 score, with the 12[SUP]th[/SUP] man. PREDICTED SCORE: SEATTLE 27 DETROIT 13. ATS SEATTLE -10, UNDER 43.0.



PHILADELPHIA 47.5 @ WASHINGTON +3
Due to the unpredictable Hurricane/storm, coming to the DC area, no analysis can be made at this time. The game will either be canceled, you played under poor conditions. However, my immediate insight into this contest, should be decided by one point. PREDICTED SCORE: PHILADELPHIA 24 WASHINGTON 23. ATS WASHINGTON +3, UNDER 47.5. (PLEASE CHECK THIS LINE BEFORE GAME TIME)



ONE LAST NOTE: I SEE MANY UNDERDOGS COVERING THE SPREAD IN WEEK #4, AND SEVERAL UNDER THE TOTAL SCORES.

 

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Wormy,
Your angle for Miami getting humiliated actually is skewed. The Jets were getting humiliated at home 24-7 until 9 minutes in the 4th when Phili decided to sit their starters and play prevent. The true result from last week was the Jets and Miami were both humiliated.

Always check your write-ups against my plays for anything I may have missed. Thanks for taking the time each week to do your thing.
CC
 

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B/worm..........as always, great write ups and thoughts...........BOL with all your action this week...........indy
 
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CruzControl, true, but Miami hasn't played well in all three games they played. Even their victory over Washington, should have been a loss. We will see. Miami, is getting a lot of heat from the Media, and their front office.
 

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CruzControl, true, but Miami hasn't played well in all three games they played. Even their victory over Washington, should have been a loss. We will see. Miami, is getting a lot of heat from the Media, and their front office.

If their head coach was Belichick I'd be sending it in on Miami. This is Philbins last game. He has no ability to rally his team after a blown out.
 
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Cruz Control, Go back to last season, week #4. Miami was in the same predicament . They lost their last two games (1-2), and were humiliated by the Bills, and Chiefs, and rebounded with a win against Oakland on the road. Just saying.
 

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Hi BW, like your write ups and basically agree with almost all of them.

The thought about the underdogs, that one is tricky it seems.

I wanted to take Green Bay, but when the line came out that was over a touchdown favourite on the road, that makes that game a little more difficult. San Francisco was embarrassed twice on the road. Kaepernick has won a lot of games in this league, it is like he forgot how to play football. Pride could kick in and San Francisco commits itself to running the ball at home, then get Kaepernick on the edge. Then that Monday night game Green Bay covers, but almost let KC get the back, and now they are on the road. I wanted to take Green Bay on Tuesday after Monday Night football, but as the week progress, decided to stay far away from this game.

The game that seems that a lot of America is interested in is the Oakland Raiders game. The Raid-duhs could have a 3-1 record and possibly a share of the division lead after today. Their QB Carr probably is one of the better young QBs in the league. He's probably better than Culter, and he's not even playing. Maybe the Raiders we can still get good lines the next few weeks as a surprise team. Head coach Jack Del Rio seems like he knows what he is doing.

Anyways, best of luck on your plays today BW.
 

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