BROOKLYNWORM’S NFL WEEK # 10 DENVER VS CLEVELAND WINNING PICK, ANALYSIS, PREDICTION, THURSDAY, 11/6/2008.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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></o>HERE WE GO, THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL IN CLEVELAND. WASN’T ABOUT 1 MONTH AGO THE GREAT NY GIANTS VISITED THE BROWNS ON A MONDAY NIGHT AND NOT ONLY LOST THE SPREAD, BUT LOST THE GAME OUTRIGHT. I BRING THIS TO YOUR ATTENTION IMMEDIATELY TO MAKE THESE IMPORTANT COMPARISONS. AT THAT TIME IN THE SEASON, THE GIANTS WERE UNDEFEATED, AND PLAYING EXCELLENT FOOTBALL, THE BROWNS WERE PLAYING TERRIBLE FOOTBALL, AND THEY WERE WONDERING IF THEIR SEASON ALREADY ENDED. IT WAS A MUST WIN SITUATION FOR THE BROWNS THAT EVENING, AND THEY AROSE TO THE OCCASION. NOW YOU HAVE THE VISITING DENVER BRONCOS ENTERING THE DOG POUND BEFORE A NATIONAL AUDIENCE, AND A HOSTILE HOME CROWD. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GIANTS AND THE BRONCOS, THE GIANTS HAD A WAY BETTER TEAM THEN THE TEAM CLEVELAND WILL FACE. CLEVELAND WEEKS AFTER THE MONDAY NITE GAME ARE ONCE AGAIN IN A “MUST WIN SITUATION” WITH A RECORD OF 3-5. A LOSE COULD END THEIR 2008 SEASON. THE BROWNS BENCHED STARTING QB ANDERSON IN FAVOR OF BRADY QUINN, AND ALL I CAN SAY IT WAS ABOUT TIME. QB ANDERSON’S STATS WERE HORRID. A PASSING PERCENTAGE OF 49.8, AND ONLY 6.0 YPA. QB QUINN WILL BENEFIT INTHIS GAME SINCE DENVER DOESN’T HAVE A STRONG PASS RUSH, AND THEIR SECONDARY IS WEAK SINCE THEY LOST THEIR BEST DEFENSIVE PLAYER CHAMP BAILEY TO INJURY. RB JAMAL LEWIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO OPEN UP THE RUNNING GAME VS DENVER’S 31<SUP>ST</SUP> RANKED NFL RUSH DEFENSE. IF LEWIS CAN RUN AND CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR THE BRONCO DEFENSE, THE OFFENSIVE LINE WILL HAVE LESS PRESSURE SINCE THEY WILL NOT BE PLACED IN 3<SUP>RD</SUP> DOWN AND LONG SITUATION THROUGHOUT THE GAME. THE QB CUTLER FINGER INJURY IS AFFECTING DENVER’S OFFENSE. CUTLER WASN’T ABLE TO DO SQUAT VS MIAMI’S 26<SUP>TH</SUP> RANKED PASS DEFENSE. ALTHOUGH CLEVELAND HAS A TERRIBLE SECONDARY, I DOUBT DUE TO CUTLER’S INJURY THAT HE WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FULL SITUATION. WITH CUTLER STRUGGLING, THE REST OF THE BRONCO TEAM IS ALSO HAVING ISSUES. DENVER HAS COMMITTED 2.4 TURNOVERS PER GAME, THE 2<SUP>ND</SUP> WORST IN THE NFL. THEY HAVE COMMITTED 11 TURNOVERS IN THEIR LAST 3 GAMES. CLEVELAND ALLOWS 348.1 YARDS PER GAME RANKING 25<SUP>TH</SUP>, AND ALLOWED 386.7 YARDS PERGAME IN THEIR LAST 3 GAMES. OVERALL, CLEVELAND HAS PLAYED THE TOUGHER SCHEDULE THUS FAR, AND DENVER HAS PLAYED MORE OF THE BOTTOM HALF COMPETITION, DESPITE THE BETTER RECORD.<o
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></o>RECOMMENDATION: <o
></o>CONSIDER THESE POINTS<o
></o>1} WEEKNIGHT HOME GAME FOR CLEVELAND NATIONAL TV AUDIENCE.<o
></o>2} CLEVELAN NEEDS THIS GAME MORE THEN DENVER OR COULD BE ELIMINATED FROM THE PLAYOFFS.<o
></o>3} BENCHING OF STARTER QB ANDERSON, MIGHT LIGHT A FIRE UNDER EVERYBODYS ASS IN CLEVLAND TO PLAY HARDER<o
></o>4} CLEVELAND’S ROMEO CRENNEL IS 4-0 ATS AT HOME IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING A HOME LOSS.<o
></o>5} DENVER’S MIKE SHANAHAN IS 1-6 ATS AS AN UNDERDOG IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING A LOSS AS A FAVORITE.<o
></o>6} MY CALCULATIONS THAT CLEVELAND HAS A 60.02% CHANCE OF COVERING THE SPREAD, AND OVER A 75% CHANCE OF WINNING THIS GAME OUTRIGHT.<o
></o>7} THE PUBLIC’S MONEY HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE BRONCO SIDE, WHICH IS GOOD FOR OUR PURPOSES.<o
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></o>PREDICTED SCORE:<o
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></o>46.0 DENVER 24<o
></o>-3.5 CLEVELAND 31<o
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></o>MONEYLINE: CLEVELAND<o
></o>ATS: CLEVELAND –3.5<o
></o>OVER/UNDER: OVER 46.0 (I SEE A HIGH SCORING GAME BASED ON MY INFORMATION AND DATA. THIS IS MY BEST BET) <o
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></o>GOOD LUCK TO ALL<o
></o>BROOKLYNWORM<o
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