Brooklynworm's monday night football picks and selection tampa bay vs carolina

BROOKLYNWORM · Dec 8, 2008

BROOKLYNWORM’S MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PICK<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>

TAMPA BAY AT CAROLINA

<o></o>

This is a big game for both teams. The winner of this division will earn the #2 seed, and a first round bye in the Playoffs. I expect a low scoring game, so don’t let the low number set by Vegas at 38.5 total points intimidate you. The books made Carolina a –3 point favorite, and I tend to disagree. I have been watching Carolina’s play the last 4 weeks, and they don’t resemble the outstanding team that I seen in the first half of the season. Defensively they have dropped in the rankings, and now rank 18<SUP>th</SUP> in points allowed. Defense is critical in the NFL the last 4 weeks of the season while heading into the playoffs. The panther’s defense has been weak, and not tackling well. Their rush defense as well as their pass defense have issues and are struggling terribly. Tampa Bay will look to take advantage of the situation. RB Cadillac Williams, returned to the lineup after being out almost the entire season. He now has played two games, and he should be ready after getting acclimated to the hitting, and live game situations. This is key for Tampa bay, since Cadillac’s absence from the lineup, the Buccaneers have been having trouble on 3<SUP>rd</SUP> down situations, since they are not able enough to move the ball on the ground on 2<SUP>nd</SUP> and 3<SUP>rd</SUP> down situations. With a healthy running game featuring Warrick Dunn, and Cadillac Williams, this will provide the Buc’s with the necessary offense that they will need to win. With QB Jeff Garcia and his mobility from the pocket, can scramble to buy more time to locate and pass to all his wide receivers. If Garcia rolls out and doesn’t see an open receiver, and can keep the ball and move the chains with his quick feet. This will only add more pressure on the struggling Panther defense. As for the Panther’s offense, QB Delhomme is not the same efficient QB that you seen the first eight weeks of the season. Delhomme has been inconsistent with his passing, and has been stubborn trying to locate his wide receivers other then Steve Smith. Carolina because of Delhomme’s inconsistent play, has forced them to become more one-dimensional with their power running game. This formula alone, will not work vs. Tampa Bay’s strong effective defense. Besides taking Tampa Bay and the +3.0 points, consider the under the total for these reasons. Even if Tampa moves the ball, they always get into trouble in the red zone, and settle for field goals. Carolina will face the signature Buc Cover-2 defense. Tampa will rush 4, and drop 7 into coverage, and fewer blitzes. This defense will not allow Delhomme to look for Steve Smith for big scoring plays, and will force him to matriculate the football with long time-consuming drives. Carolina ranks 25<SUP>th</SUP> in the NFL on 3<SUP>rd</SUP> down conversions (35%).<o></o>
<o></o>
PREDICTED SCORE<o></o>
<o></o>
TAMPA BAY 16<o></o>
CAROLINA 14<o></o>
<o></o>
BROOKLYNWORM’S PLAYS<o></o>

<o></o>
TAKE TAMPA BAY +3.0 POINTS ….2UNITS

TAKE THE UNDER TOTAL 38.5 POINTS……2 UNITS

<o></o>
PLAY 2 TEAM 7 POINT TEASER………..5 UNITS<o></o>
TAMPA BAY +10.0 POINTS<o></o>
UNDER 45.5 POINTS

BookIT · Dec 8, 2008

I'm totally with you on both, been trying to get these points across all week....Lets cash it baby!

stevo101 · Dec 8, 2008

Nice write up. I will be with you on all plays tonight...Lets cash this thing!

stevo101 · Dec 8, 2008

all action on carolina. My book has tb +3 at even money. I think Im going to wait and try to get +3.5 maybe?

BROOKLYNWORM · Dec 8, 2008

<TABLE id=betChart cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=3><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=menucontainerBG><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR height=19><TD class=betTitle colSpan=2 height=19>Parlay (2 Teams)</TD><TD class=betTitle align=right width=18 height=19>

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD class=betWin colSpan=3>Bet $<INPUT class=fieldDimmed id=betAmount[0] maxLength=9 onchange=javascript:updatePotentialWin(0); value=500.00 name=betCart.tickets[0].bet.betAmount autocomplete="off"> to Win $<INPUT class=fieldDimmed id=potentialWinAmount[0] maxLength=9 onchange=javascript:updateBet(0) value=1409.09 autocomplete="off"> </TD></TR><TR class=titleHeader height=15><TD class=tableHeaderBold>Date</TD><TD class=tableHeaderBold>Team</TD><TD class=tableHeaderBold>Line</TD></TR><TR><TD class=trLineThin colSpan=3></TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=betInfo>12/08/08</TD><TD class=betInfo>TampaBay(Buccaneers)</TD><TD class=betInfo>+3</TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=betInfo>20:35 ET</TD><TD class=betInfo></TD><TD class=betInfo>(even)</TD></TR><TR><TD class=trLineThin colSpan=3></TD></TR><SCRIPT language=javascript> productBrandBuf.append("Foot-Tampa-Carol-120808+"); </SCRIPT><TR class=even><TD class=betInfo>12/08/08</TD><TD class=betInfo>TampaBay(Buccaneers)</TD><TD class=betInfo>Under 38</TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=betInfo>20:35 ET</TD><TD class=betInfo>Carolina(Panthers)</TD><TD class=betInfo></TD></TR><TR><TD class=trLineThin colSpan=3></TD></TR><SCRIPT language=javascript> productBrandBuf.append("Foot-Tampa-Carol-120808+"); </SCRIPT></TBODY></TABLE>
<SCRIPT language=javascript> if (("" != "203") && ("" != productBuf.toString())) { productBuf.append(","); productPriceBuf.append(","); productQtyBuf.append(","); productBrandBuf.append(","); productCategoryBuf.append(","); } if("Parlay (2 Teams)".match(/If/)){ productBuf.append(stripIllegalChars("SportType+203+-+Parlay (2 Teams)+-+2+Teams+Selected")); }else{ productBuf.append(stripIllegalChars("SportType+203+-+Parlay (2 Teams)")); } productPriceBuf.append("500.0"); productQtyBuf.append("1"); productCategoryBuf.append("SportType+203"); </SCRIPT><TABLE id=betChart cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=3><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=4 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=betTotalsContainerBG><TABLE class=borderLight cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=betTotalsLeft noWrap>Your Total Bet:</TD><TD class=betTotalsRight noWrap>500.00
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=betTotalsLeft noWrap>Total Potential Win:</TD><TD class=betTotalsRight noWrap>1409.09
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

BROOKLYNWORM · Dec 8, 2008

WE ARE OKAY, ON THE SAME PAGE.

bw

UncleMush · Dec 8, 2008

Hate to be up against you BW, but best of luck. I think Tampa is being given too much credit here. Carolina can score points at home and I think they get this one tonight. Not gonna post my writeup in here, but i like Carolina by 10 or 11 but good luck and win the football money!

BROOKLYNWORM · Dec 8, 2008

uncle mush said:
hate to be up against you bw, but best of luck. I think tampa is being given too much credit here. Carolina can score points at home and i think they get this one tonight. Not gonna post my writeup in here, but i like carolina by 10 or 11 but good luck and win the football money!

hi mush;

especially when delhomme is playing poorly, and only looks for steve smith to pass to?. As a team, carolina went from a great team in the first half, to an overratted team today. They are not making tackles on defense, and their play as a team have sloppy. Am i the only one seeing their talent and play diminish in the past 4 weeks?. The public is hooked on the trend that the home team is the big fav in this series. Cadillac is the big missing factor that the bucs didn't have the whole season. Dunn and williams should be able to wear them down. Remember tb plays a 2 cover defense, which means in laymen's terms (takes away the long pass play, and limits the oppossing offense) the idea is play defense by keeping the play in front of you, and force the opponents to move the ball on sustaining drives. Remember, carolina ranks 25th on converting on 3rd downs.

Good luck my friend
bw

UncleMush · Dec 8, 2008

Yes I took all that into consideration, but am not enamored with Tampa's red zone production. They didn't look great the last 4 weeks and this wasn't an easy pick. Just like the home cookin' here my friend. Caddy may be alright, but i wanna see it first. It will be dink and dunk for both teams.