Brooklynworm's 2016 nfl picks, and predictions, week # 10.

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[FONT=&quot]CLEVELAND (45) BALTIMORE (-10)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Let me tell you how many times, that Cleveland has burned me against the number. The obvious pick to win is Baltimore, the question again is, do you take the +10 points, and side with the Browns? Baltimore, last week wasn’t tested against the premature return of Roethlisberger last week. Cleveland, looks good enough to win on paper. The Browns now have two healthy playmakers on the outside that can catch, and run with the football. Hayden’s return to Cleveland’s secondary should help, and maybe the recent acquisition of Jamie Collins, will be a factor in this game. Baltimore, isn’t a good team. However, as bad as their offense is, Cleveland’s ineptness on defense, could improve their scoring chances. I don’t trust Joe Flacco at quarterback. But I do respect Steve Smith and Dennis Pita. They will be the factors in this game. Cleveland, like I said, look good on paper offensively, and they should be able to matriculate the football up and down the field, versus the Ravens overrated defense. Consider this trend. Double digit home teams, that are favorites on Thursday Nights, is only 2-4 against the spread. PREDICTED SCORE: BALTIMORE 27 CLEVELAND 20, TAKE CLEVELAND +10, AND PLAY THE OVER 45.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]HOUSTON (42 ½) JACKSONVILLE (+1 ½)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Jacksonville, looks like they may have given up on the season. Considering the fact, they fired their Offensive Coordinator two weeks ago, and last week, only managed to produce 14 points. The Jags Head coach is still there, but it looks like he lost his team. Houston, has shown signs of life, and are playing better football. Even without JJ Watt, they still can generate a strong pass rush, and their defense has played well. QB Bortles, is a joke, and it is obvious, he isn’t Jacksonville’s future. The Texans, should be able on defense, to shut the Jags offense down. The Jags, will be missing one of their receivers, and the other wide out Robinson, will have no place to go. Jags only chance, is to run the football, off a weak running game. If Vince Wilfork is cleared to play, Jacksonville’s hopes for a ground game, will be squashed. So that leaves this only ray of hope for the Jags. Were they embarrassed enough last week on National television, to give it the old college try? If the clubhouse wasn’t lost, the Jag defense is good enough, to leave Houston’s weak offense in check. I look at this as a low scoring game. PREDICTED SCORE: HOUSTON 17 JACKSONVILLE 14, TAKE HOUSTON – 1 ½, AND PLAY THE UNDER 42 ½.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]KANSAS CITY (44) CAROLINA (-3)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]QB Alex Smith returns to the lineup. Smith should have success, attacking Carolina horrid secondary. On top of that, QB Newton, and their offense struggle against good defensive teams with a good pass rush. Kansas City, is that such team. Look at the match up in the trenches. Carolina’s offensive line, cannot contain the Chief’s front seven. Newton will be constantly pressured. The Panther’s best playmakers on offense, Olsen, and Benjamin, will be covered by two capable cornerbacks. Carolina, will have to rely on their running game, and the legs of Cam Newton. Kansas City’s Achilles Heel, has been stopping the run. Kansas City, is the better team. I see an upset here. PREDICTED SCORE: KANSAS CITY 23 CAROLINA 20, TAKE KANSAS CITY +3, AND PLAY UNDER 44.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]DENVER (48 ½) NEW ORLEANS (-1 ½)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Denver’s bread and butter, is their defense. One of the best defenses in the NFL, must carry their rookie QB Siemian. Last week, and just recently, the Broncos have suffered key injuries on defense, and lost one of their best defensive ends. What that means, if Denver doesn’t have a pass rush, Drew Brees, should have a clean pocket to operate from. Even with Von Miller, and Ware, they will face a New Orleans offensive line, which can negate their presence. That leaves to many open weapons on the Saints offense for Denver to handle. In addition, the Denver defensive front seven, is suspect stopping the run. Looking at New Orleans secondary, they are just awful in coverage. Case, and point, the Saints allowed the worst QB in the NFL Kaepernick, to throw for over 400 yards against them last week. Denver must run the football, with the little talent that they have. Even if Denver’s backs can’t get gain yardage, at least keep the Saint Pass rush honest. You have to wonder why Vegas made the Saints the favorite, knowing that the bettors will all jump on Denver’s band wagon. I see a shootout in the dome. PREDICTED SCORE: NEW ORLEANS 28 DENVER 27, TAKE NEW ORLEANS +1 ½, AND PLAY OVER 48 ½.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]LOS ANGELES (39 ½) NEW YORK JETS (-2)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]One trend, that I always take series, is when a West Coast team, must travel to the East Coast, to play a 1:00 pm scheduled game. So the immediate advantage goes to the Jets. QB Keenum, has shown that he can’t lead his offense, and the Rams have difficulty scoring points. The only reason why the Rams have been competitive, is the excellent play from their defense. Although the Jets have a lousy secondary, the question is, is Keenum capable of taking advantage of the situation? Dissention, may be brewing in the Jets clubhouse. Wilkerson, and Richardson, missed a team meeting last week. Marshall was seen fighting with Fitzpatrick, to get him the football, and Fitzpatrick suffered a sprained MCL, in last week’s game, and didn’t particularly play well versus Miami. To continue, the Jet offensive line is banged up, and an injured Nick Mangold needs to play, if they intend on stopping the Rams aggressive front seven. Besides for the one o’clock start at home, the Jets don’t have a leg to stand on. I don’t like the play here, and we know it will be a low scoring game, and Vegas realizes that too. PREDICTED SCORE: NEW YORK JETS 20 LA RAMS 17, TAKE NEW YORK -2, AND PLAY UNDER 39 ½.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]ATLANTA (50) PHILADELPHIA (-1)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]What? Philadelphia is favorite, playing bad football, and Atlanta is underdogs playing good football ?. QB Wentz is regressing week after week, and is tossing interceptions, and making rookie mistakes. It didn’t take the NFL long, to study film, and get a book on him. The Eagles wide receivers are terrible, and I don’t see anything inspiring me to bet on them. Atlanta he’s pass combination, starting with Ryan, and his playmakers, should overwhelm Philadelphia’s defense. I think this game is a trap play. However, I have to side with the Falcons. PREDICTED SCORE: ATLANTA 27 PHILADELPHIA 24, TAKE ATLANTA +1. PLAY THE OVER 50.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]MINNESOTA (42) WASHINGTON (-2 ½)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]This looks like a good battle in the making. Both teams are having trouble with their offensive lines. Both teams possess better than average pass rushers that can pressure and get to the opposing QB. So both teams will have to establish a ground game, to take the heat off their quarterbacks. Cousins, if he gets time in the pocket, will be able to attack Minnesota’s secondary. Same holds true for Bradford, since Washington has a vulnerable secondary. As you see, the argument that you are witnessing, is me going back and forth, with the same result. This game is a toss-up. PREDICTED SCORE: WASHINGTON 21 MINNESOTA 20, TAKE MINNESOTA +2 ½, AND PLAY UNDER 42.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]GREEN BAY (49 ½) TENNESSEE (+2 ½)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Before jumping on GB band wagon, thinking that last week’s upset loss to the Colts will motivate them this Sunday, don’t hold your breath. Think about it. Green Bay lost handily at home, against one of the worst teams in the NFL. So a Packer victory, isn’t an automatic. There something wrong in Cheese Land. Meanwhile, Tennessee, isn’t a slouch team, and have their moments. If Mariota gets hot, and doesn’t make mistakes, he will chew up GB’s horrid secondary. On top of that, he has De Marco Murray, to gain chunks of yardage on the ground. Last week, RB Gore, destroyed the Packer front seven. Murray is that much better, and should do the same. The only drawback with Tennessee, is that their secondary is missing in action. If Rodger’s offensive line, gives him enough time to extend a pass play, the Titans will be in trouble. However, will the real Aaron Rodgers, please stand up. I am going to call another upset here. PREDICTED SCORE: TENNESSEE 23, GREEN BAY 21, TAKE TENNESSEE +2 ½, AND PLAY UNDER 49 ½.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]MIAMI (49) SAN DIEGO (-3 ½)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]This is a good matchup to watch. San Diego, has Phillip Rivers with the hot hand, and is having an MVP season. Miami, has shown vast improve as a team, after a dismal start of the season. Miami, has to be able to apply pressure on Rivers. Like most quarterbacks, he will have difficulty connecting while under fire. So Wake, and Suh, need their presence to be known, on the defensive line. SD alternate on offense, is their sensational running back, Melvin Gordon. Melvin tore up Tennessee’s steady run defense last week. Miami, has trouble stopping the run, so you can see where this is heading. However, Miami counters with their outstanding runner, Jay Ajayi. Ajayi, rush for over 200 yards in consecutive games, and last week, ran for over 100 yards. San Diego’s defense is built to stop their opponents passing game with Bosa. So Miami can have an advantage with their ground game. PREDICTED SCORE: MIAMI 23 SAN DIEGO 20, TAKE MIAMI +3 ½, AND PLAY UNDER 49.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]ARIZONA (48 ½) SAN FRANCISCO (+13 ½)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]SF, QB, kaepernick, is probably the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. He now takes on the challenge against a top NFL defense. Besides Kaepernick having trouble locating his open receivers, he will not get any help running the football. RB Carlos Hyde is injured, and may not play. Even if he is activated, he won’t be 100%. So expect the Cardinal defense, to shut the 49ers down. As for SF offense, here is the perfect matchup. Arizona’s RB David Johnson, versus San Francisco’s worst 32 nd, last ranked NFL defense, stopping the run. The running game, will give the struggling Palmer, enough time in the pocket, to go on top. Here is how I am handicapping this game. New Orleans, without a defense, beat SF last week 41-23.Arizona should score at least 27 points, and hold the 49 ers under two touchdowns. With that being said, The Godfather gave me an offer that I can’t refuse. Take the points. PREDICTED SCORE: ARIZONA 27 SAN FRANCISCO 14, TAKE SAN FRANCISCO +13 ½, AND PLAY UNDER 48 ½.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]DALLAS (50) PITTSBURGH (-2 ½)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]After Pittsburgh’s lousy performance last week, how are the favorite against a hot Dallas cowboy team? Well, last week, Roethlisberger rushed back to prematurely, and wasn’t effective. He was rusty, however, he did show signs of life at quarterback, in the fourth quarter. So let’s say, that after one week, Big Ben is now healthy, and ready to play. Dallas is missing two key pieces in their secondary, and Roethlisberger has the playmakers to exploit their weakness. In addition, RB Bell, should be able to run on the Cowboy front seven. Dallas, offensively, will rely heavily on their running game with RB Elliott. He has been their catalyst for winning, however, Pittsburgh’s secondary has been awful, and have no consistent pass rush. This does bode well, going up against the best NFL offensive line. Pittsburgh has shown they can stop the run, and even if they slow Elliott down, QB Prescott, should have protection in the pocket to locate his receivers. This is a must win for Pittsburgh, and I see a high scoring game. PREDICTED SCORE: PITTSBURGH 30 DALLAS 27, TAKE PITTSBURGH -2 ½, AND PLAY OVER 50.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]SEATTLE (48) NEW ENGLAND (-7 ½)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Did anyone see QB Wilson play last week? He was playing like his old self, using his legs, scrambling, and passing with accuracy. The reason why Buffalo’s defense was destroyed by the Seahawks last week, was due to the predictable coverages that they employed. Rex Ryan, loves to blitz, and place his corners in one on one coverages. Seattle caught them in a blitz, and the Bills defense couldn’t get to Wilson. When they did get pressure, he scrambled to extend the play. I bring the Buffalo vs. Seattle game up, to show you what will be done differently by the Patriots. Bill Belichick, doesn’t rely heavily on the blitz like his counterpart Rex Ryan. Belichick, will not gamble on his corners to cover one on one. Instead, he pass rushes with his front four, and drops everyone into coverage. Belichick, seen that Wilson has regained his legs, and is now healthy. So, he will assign a player to spy on him, when he drops into the pocket. The Seahawks offensive line is awful, and a four man rush maybe just as effective. Tom Brady, will look to attack an injury riddled Seattle secondary. Seattle’s Chancellor may return, but he won’t be at 100%. Brady will have to contend the Seattle pass rush, by short to intermediate passes, with his quick release. In addition, the Seahawk defense hasn’t defended the run well, and that means to expect RB Blount with many touches in the game. There are two positive things that I factor for the Patriots. Bill Belichick, comes off a bye week, and is well prepared with his game plan, Seattle travels east, on a shortened week, after physical, and emotional victory over the Bills. Recall week #7, when Seattle played against Arizona. That game was a physical contest, which ended up in a tie, after OT. The week after, Arizona traveled to Carolina, and they played flat, and lost in a romp 30 -20. The game was actually over at halftime, the score looks closer due to late garbage points scored by Arizona. Seattle, had to travel to New Orleans the following week, and lost 25 – 20. Again, the Seahawks played flat, and couldn’t catch up. PREDICTED SCORE: NEW ENGLAND 30 SEATTLE 20, TAKE NEW ENGLAND -7 ½, AND PLAY OVER 48.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]CINCINNATI (47) NEW YORK GIANTS (-2 ½)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The question in this game, is if Eli Manning, will have time in the pocket? Eli’s offensive line doesn’t provide him with adequate pass protection. However, if Manning get protection, he will destroy the Bengals secondary. Since NY doesn’t have a running attack, expect the Bengals to pressure Manning every chance they get. The Giants are excellent on defending the run, and the Bengals running game will be shut down. So that leaves us with two teams, that should go pass happy, and we can expect a big score. PREDICTED SCORE: NEW YORK 30 CINCINNATI 27, TAKE NEW YORK -2 ½, PLAY THE OVER 47.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]CHICAGO (OFF) TAMPA BAY (+1)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]As you can see as of Thursday, this post doesn’t include the under/over action on this game. Meantime, QB Winston, hurt his knee last week, but will play. I don’t know if he is at 100 %, so continue to monitor his status before Sunday’s game. Chicago on defense, has steadily improved, and a decent pass rush. Tampa has a suspect offensive line. So this doesn’t bode well for the Bucs. If Winston is struggling, he isn’t going to get any help from his fourth string running back. I laughed last week, watching Cutler in action. Jay, actually had a pulse, and showed some emotion (he cracked a smile just like Lurch in the TV show, “The Addam’s Family”). Let’s see if Cutler can show up this weekend with the same emotion. If Jay shows any life, it will be against a lousy Tampa Bay secondary. He has enough offensive weapons to take the Bucs down. PREDICTED SCORE: CHICAGO 24 TAMPA BAY 17, TAKE CHICAGO -1, AND OVER/UNDER OFF THE BOARD.[/FONT]
 

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Brooklyn, in the New Orleans game you have NO listed at -1.5 and winning by 1 (28-27) but it says to take NO +1.5. Is your line misquoted at -1.5? Just trying to clear up some confusion
Good luck with your plays!!
 
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Brooklyn, in the New Orleans game you have NO listed at -1.5 and winning by 1 (28-27) but it says to take NO +1.5. Is your line misquoted at -1.5? Just trying to clear up some confusion
Good luck with your plays!!
Thanks for the heads up. I played New Orleans +1 1/2 .
 

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B/worm...........always a must read for me..............nicely done YTD..............continued success this week..............indy
 

BZ

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Always love your analysis worm. Good luck this week!
 

I can't dance
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Hi BW, great write ups. Tonight will take Seattle because that is a lot of points.

New England traded away their best defender. Jamie Collins was probably going to cover Seattle tight end Graham tonight. This will be experimental for New England.

That kind of makes me wonder about the locker room. New England's mantra is "do your job", but you don't have to enjoy it or do it with any enthusiasm. They traded away their best defender, Trump got elected president and he is generally not popular in NFL locker rooms, and the Liberal media is telling the players in the Pats locker room you're -7½ points better than the team you beat in your last Superbowl.

One team could be more motivated that the other team tonight, and Seattle getting +7½ points.

Best of luck to your plays this weekend BW!

:dancefool
 

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